Open 704: Switch (Game Over)

[Chip Butty]

I'm not going to say anything more in response to my largely absent d1. I've acknowledged it, if you can't move on, it's your problem. Even at the best of times, it's often d3 before i really start rolling, because before then it's mainly guesswork. We just happened to get lucky this game.

Since Math nailed scum and seemed to know what he was doing, I'm going to sheep him and vote the guy who is tunnelling me for sketchy reasons:

VOTE: Maxous

[havingfitz]

Vote Count 2.04

Chip Butty (3) - Maxous, Almost50, Elmo TeH AzN
havingfitz (1) - Sauce
Maxous (1) - Not_Mafia

Not Voting (3) - Chip Butty, havingfitz, mutantdevle

With 8 votes, it will take 5 to reach majority.

The deadline is Sunday, January 14, 2018, at 9:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-14 21:00:00).

Moderator Comments

havingfitz is on V/LA from December 29 to January 3.

Brief check in...why the rush to lynch someone? The fact that two of the people on the Chip wagon were off the Bins wagon is too funny.

I'd probably lean towards voting Maxous but I'm not caught up and won't be until tomorrow.

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 2.06

Chip Butty (4) - Maxous, Almost50, Elmo The AzN, Sauce

(L-1)

Maxous (2) - Not_Mafia, Chip Butty

Not Voting (2) - havingfitz, mutantdevle

With 8 votes, it will take 5 to reach majority.

The deadline is Sunday, January 14, 2018, at 9:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-14 21:00:00).

Moderator Comments

havingfitz is on V/LA from December 29 to January 3.
PenguinPower is covering for Equinox for a day or two.

[Not_Mafia]

Intent to Hammer

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: Chip Butty

Too late, lol.

[Chip Butty]

Just one more active game to get out of, and I'm away from the site until I'm less busy IRL.

[Chip Butty]

Go, scum, you can do it!

[Not_Mafia]

Who was momo?

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 2.07

Chip Butty (5) - Maxous, Almost50, Elmo The AzN, Sauce, Chip Butty

(Lynch)

Maxous (2) - Not_Mafia

Not Voting (2) - havingfitz, mutantdevle

With 8 votes, it will take 5 to reach majority.

The deadline is Sunday, January 14, 2018, at 9:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-14 21:00:00).

Moderator Comments

havingfitz is on V/LA from December 29 to January 3.
PenguinPower is covering for Equinox for a day or two.

[PenguinPower]

---

Giving up on the town, he confesses and submits to the the town's mercy. They have none.

Chip Butty,

Mafia Vigilante Switch

, was lynched on Day 2!

Night 2 begins now. The deadline is Thursday, January 4, 2018, at 10:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-04 22:00:00).

Please make sure to PM me and Equinox any night actions, should you have any.

[PenguinPower]

Wow...really? The death rampage continues.

Sauce,

town vanilla

, has died on Night 2!
Maxous,

town vanilla

, has died on Night 2!

Day 3 begins now.

Vote Count 3.00

Not Voting (5) - Almost50, Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz, mutantdevle, Not_Mafia

With 5 votes, it will take 3 to reach majority.

The deadline is Sunday, January 18, 2018, at 10:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-18 22:00:00).

Moderator Comments

PP is still filling in.

[Not_Mafia]

Who was momo?

[Almost50]

Those are two very strange targets for the SK to have shot either!!

I'm most confident in Fitz being the 3rd Mafioso, but the SK certainly has me intrigued.

I'm not voting yet though as I want everyone to weigh in, and just in the off case I'm wrong and both last Mafia and he SK decide to join forces and screw us.

[Almost50]

I mean, Having wasn't voting either of the Scum flips. In fact he wasn't voting AT ALL. He also was heavily suspected by Mathdino which makes sense for Mafia to shoot Dino if they did. Finally, the readlist he posted had Bins as a top TR with Chip hidden in the TBD (that's what scum usually do when they post a readlist of only 3 categories, since they won't have trouble voting any of their claimed SRs, and is usually better than the strategy Bins used. Oh, and Fits was on Bins top TRs too, alongside ME.

But now I'm considering our options: Lynch Mafia!Fitz, go into the night and have the SK shoot one Townie. We emerge as 3 and it is down to the 2 living Townies best judgement.

OR, we could No Lynch and hope that the SK will shoot Fitz anyway, but who would Fitz shoot is the question. If he shoots a Townie it's the same result. If he shoots the SK, we win. If he doesn't shoot at all, he's screwed anyway but we come out as 4 tomorrow. Still, the SK could shoot a Townie instead and then we emerge as 2-1-1 tomorrow which necessitates that we also No Lynch tomorrow, and hope that scum will cross kill.

OK, the second option is reliant on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt. It is also way too complicated, but I thought I'd throw that out anyway.

I think I'm better off leaving this for the morning when my mind is fresher. I think I may have overlooked something in my 2nd option (which we are less likely to follow anyway), so I probably will spot my mistake when I reread what I just typed.

[Not_Mafia]

I agree with lynching fitz

[Almost50]

Where the freak is Elmo/mutant/Fitz??

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Working day opened when I went to bed and I'm at work - _-

[havingfitz]

Where the freak is Elmo/mutant/Fitz??

I'm here. Not scum btw.

Will try to get a decent post up by tomorrow.

[mutantdevle]

Where the freak is Elmo/mutant/Fitz??

Busy busy busy. Shall comment later.

[mutantdevle]

(In about 1 or 2 hours).

[havingfitz]

OK, the second option is reliant on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt.

Well I am town. There's read #1.
Read #2 is there is a 50% chance one of you is scum. Not bad odds.

Why am I scum again A50? VCA? I would do a better job of not looking as bad as I do in VCA if I had anything to hide. tyvm

I agree with lynching fitz

[mutantdevle]

I mean, Having wasn't voting either of the Scum flips. In fact he wasn't voting this AT ALL. He also is was heavily suspected by Mathdino which makes a sense for Mafia to shoot Dino if they did. Finally, the readlist reaction he posted had Bins as a top TR with Chip hidden in the TBD (that's what scum usually do when they post a test readlist of only 3 categories, since they to won't have trouble voting any of their claimed SRs, and is usually better than the strategy Bins used. Oh, and see Fits was on Bins top TRs too, alongside ME.

But now I'm considering our options if : Lynch Mafia!Fitz, go into the night and have the SK shoot one Townie. We emerge as 3 and it is down to the 2 living Townies best judgement.

OR, we could No Lynch anyone and hope that the SK will shoot Fitz anyway, but who would Fitz shoot is the question. If he shoots a Townie it's the same result. If he shoots the SK, we win. If he doesn't shoot at all, he's screwed anyway but we come out as 4 tomorrow. Still, the SK could shoot a Townie instead and then we emerge as 2-1-1 tomorrow which agrees necessitates that we also No Lynch tomorrow, and hope that scum will cross kill.

OK, the second option is reliant with on Fitz actually having reads, which I very much doubt. It is also way too complicated this , but I thought I'd throw that out anyway.

I think I'm better off leaving this for the morning when my mind is obviously fresher. I think I may have overlooked something in my 2nd option (which we are less likely to follow anyway), so I probably will spot my scummy
mistake when I reread what idea I just typed.

I'm assuming Sauce was the SK kill since I think a lot of us thought he was scummy (I certainly did). The SK should, in theory, be aiming for the mafia right now since our vig is useless due to the SK just being able to keep the switch off every night. If we lynch the SK then the vig is able to freely perform a kill tonight. If we don't lynch the SK today then there is a still a chance the SK could hit the mafioso so that doesn't matter too much (though obviously, the preference is Vig performing the shot).

There's 5 of us left. Since we all know out own alignments that's 4 people in our personal lynch pools. For us townies, that's a 50% chance of lynching scum. For scum, that's a 25% chance of getting each other. So odds are in our favour for now.

3v1v1.
No lynch + 1 NK = [2v1v1 (same position day 4)] / [3v1 (SK

OR

Mafia lose + strong town day 4)].
[1 lynch + 1 NK] / [no lynch + 2 NK] = [1v1v1 (town lose + SK

OR

Mafia win)] / [2v1 (SK

OR

Mafia lose + day 4 mylo)] / [Town instant win].
1 lynch + 2 NK = [1v1 (Mafia win OR scum draw)] / [Town Instant win].



So here's the deal, if we lynch today and there are 2 kills at night then we face a 50% chance of winning and a 50% of losing.
If we lynch today but there is only 1 kill at night OR we no lynch and there are 2 night kills then that gives us a 40% chance that scum win, 40% chance we get mylo day 4 and a 20% chance we win.
Finally, if we don't lynch and there is 1 kill then there is a 50% chance we are in the same position tomorrow (but with 1 less person in the lynch pool) and a 50% chance we are 1 less scum closer to victory.

So with that in mind, I think we should no lynch today. It maximises our chances of making it to tommorow where we will be in a stronger position as we have less people in the lynch pool.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

So with that in mind, I think we should no lynch today. It maximises our chances of making it to tommorow where we will be in a stronger position as we have less people in the lynch pool.

Short answer. No
VOTE: mutantdevle for even thinking of a nO lynch

You do that and say the SK hits a town and so does scum
Your down to a 1-1-1 game where it's who played a better game the SK or mafia leaving it in the hands of a town player. Odds of that are 60% if I'm right.

[mutantdevle]

I really don't think you are right.

I'd like to hear everyone's opinions on the idea of a no lynch before we start throwing votes out over it.

[Not_Mafia]

No