Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win


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Post Post #32 (isolation #0) » Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:08 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Not sold on the Transcend wagon. I think blatant rolefishing is one of those "scumtells" that scum don't actually do.

IceGuy is a bit more convincing, because of what Ectomancer said here:
In post 30, Ectomancer wrote:I asked myself why Iceguy would state the super obvious to Transcend to not ask the mod to confirm the role claimed. Iceguy has been around, but Transcend has literally 10x the number of posts of either one of us. So I'm slapping Iceguy with an "I'm a super helpful townie" scum tell violation.
Also, IceGuy's random vote goes out of it's way to tell you it's random (saying the reason if OMGUS). Making sure you don't provoke any actual conflict seems more likely to come from scum.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #1) » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:25 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 33, IceGuy wrote:Are people seriously basing a scumread on two posts, one of which is RVS?
Yes.
In post 48, IceGuy wrote:
In post 39, DeasVail wrote: It seems pretty usual to me that people exaggerate the significance of their thoughts early game in order to actually have something to talk about. Is that your experience too?
Ectomancer seems more intent on finding somebody to lynch, instead of finding scum.
What makes you think that? I'd say moving from Transcend to you looks more like someone trying to find scum; someone who doesn't care who they lynch has no reason to hop..
In post 36, Yuria wrote:I just remembered this game exists

VOTE: fishy
Any reason?
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Post Post #94 (isolation #2) » Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:27 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 91, Luca Blight wrote:The amount of times I've seen someone use 'OMGUS' as the reason for an RVS vote is innumerable. As someone who has been here since 2008, he must surely have seen the same types of RVS posts coming from both alignments? As for the 'super helpful townie' thing - that could be a valid point, but not a very strong one as I could easily see a Townie making the same point.
I find the best way to get out of the RVS is to make serious votes, even if they are weak. I think that avoiding conflict in the RVS probably is a mild scumtell; of course RVS posts like that come from both alignments, but I think scum are slightly more likely to make them.

FYI as you've spotted my join date: I've played very infrequently for several years (1-2 games/year). Not relevant here - I have indeed seen my share of RVS's - but I'm probably less up on lots of more recent things than you'd expect.
In post 91, Luca Blight wrote: Then why aren't you voting IceGuy?
Er.... I honestly thought I was. Thanks.
VOTE: IceGuy
In post 91, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 32, Fishythefish wrote:
In post 48, IceGuy wrote:
In post 39, DeasVail wrote: It seems pretty usual to me that people exaggerate the significance of their thoughts early game in order to actually have something to talk about. Is that your experience too?
Ectomancer seems more intent on finding somebody to lynch, instead of finding scum.
What makes you think that? I'd say moving from Transcend to you looks more like someone trying to find scum;
someone who doesn't care who they lynch has no reason to hop..
This is an incredibly simplistic view and devoid of context.

Is Fishy really implying that scum wouldn't wagon hop?
When you say "devoid of context" - do you think there's more context I should have added?

No, I'm not implying that scum wouldn't wagon hop. IceGuy is saying specifically that "Ectomancer seems more intent on finding somebody to lynch, instead of finding scum." I don't think that fits well with Ectomancer's actions - hopping between two about equally sized wagons doesn't really look like going for any old lynch - so I want to hear more from IceGuy on why he thinks this.
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Post Post #118 (isolation #3) » Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:32 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 103, IceGuy wrote:
In post 94, Fishythefish wrote: No, I'm not implying that scum wouldn't wagon hop. IceGuy is saying specifically that "Ectomancer seems more intent on finding somebody to lynch, instead of finding scum." I don't think that fits well with Ectomancer's actions - hopping between two about equally sized wagons doesn't really look like going for any old lynch - so I want to hear more from IceGuy on why he thinks this.
I'm skeptical of people who have strong reads early in the game. By that time, there isn't really enough information you can base serious reads on - that's why RVS is a thing.

Calling people scum seriously that early in the game allows you to backtrack later with no consequences (nobody expects you to stick with your read from page 3), but if there's a serious wagon on the same person later on you look towny for not hopping too much, even if they flip town (oops!)

So if somebody starts two serious wagons by post #30, my alarm bells start ringing.
If Ectomancer wants to "look towny for not hopping too much" on these early wagons, surely leaving Transcend's wagon would undermine that? For this to make sense, I think Ectomancer would have to be able to use their early vote on Transcend as cover for a vote later. And they pretty clearly couldn't.
In post 115, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Side Note:
VOTE: Mutant

Who gives reads 2 Pages into a game and less then 70 posts into a game. If you were trying to generate conversation good. But come on. They were pointless. D2 or even a late D1 I can see reads.
Is giving these reads scummy as well as pointless?
In post 62, Yuria wrote:
In post 60, Fishythefish wrote:
In post 36, Yuria wrote:I just remembered this game exists

VOTE: fishy
Any reason?
what are your reads rn?
Beyond my vote, no others I think are worth talking about right now.
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Post Post #136 (isolation #4) » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:14 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 127, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
In post 118, Fishythefish wrote:Is giving these reads scummy as well as pointless?
Never said it was scummy.
You voted, and then criticised the big list of reads, so I rather assumed you thought the big list of reads was scummy. If not - why did you vote mutant?
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Post Post #184 (isolation #5) » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:56 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Quickhammering is bad. If there's a vig, they should take out anyone who quickhammers a townie.

This is mostly a prod dodge. I'll have a proper amount of time for this game tomorrow. What I'm thinking at the moment is:

1) Elmo looks like scum.
2) I'm still not happy with IceGuy's explanation of his early play, though RVS-based reads that no-one else is excited about are probably not usually very helpful.
In post 154, Yuria wrote:
In post 94, Fishythefish wrote: No, I'm not implying that scum wouldn't wagon hop. IceGuy is saying specifically that "Ectomancer seems more intent on finding somebody to lynch, instead of finding scum." I don't think that fits well with Ectomancer's actions - hopping between two about equally sized wagons doesn't really look like going for any old lynch - so I want to hear more from IceGuy on why he thinks this.
In post 118, Fishythefish wrote: If Ectomancer wants to "look towny for not hopping too much" on these early wagons, surely leaving Transcend's wagon would undermine that? For this to make sense, I think Ectomancer would have to be able to use their early vote on Transcend as cover for a vote later. And they pretty clearly couldn't.
Can you explain what's alignment indicative for iceguy about this line of questioning? These posts feel like they're reading too much into ecto's actions too much to defend them for no reason.
Sure. IceGuy said something that didn't sound true (I quote it inline in post 94 above). He said it in a context where he had motivation to call ecto scummy, as ecto had voted him. I wanted to work out whether:
- It made more sense than I thought, and was neutral for IG
- It didn't make sense, and was a weak excuse to vote his voter. You can argue about how much that speaks to IG's alignment, but weak excuses for OMGUS are at least worth following up.
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Post Post #237 (isolation #6) » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:32 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Elmo

I think Elmo is scum. I'm not adding anything new here, but the big reason is this post:
In post 115, Elmo TeH AzN wrote: Side Note:
VOTE: Mutant

Who gives reads 2 Pages into a game and less then 70 posts into a game. If you were trying to generate conversation good. But come on. They were pointless. D2 or even a late D1 I can see reads.
The PM System is fine.
Plus the follow up; when asked about the reasoning, Elmo says it wasn't scummy; and then never explains why she voted anyway. It might be relevant that I messed up the voting tags when I asked about the reasoning; I wonder whether Elmo forgot that she'd made this vote. I don't really see how else to explain Elmo's posting.

Since then, Elmo's been mostly attacking her wagon rather than scumhunting or explaining. That's not very helpful, but doesn't say much about her alignment.

@Elmo
: Why did you vote mutant in the post quoted above?

---

IceGuy

My read on IceGuy's page 2 play - that his reasoning was weird and likely motivated by Ecto voting for him - hasn't changed. But it's only a weak scumtell, that's loads of pages ago, and I don't think anything is coming out of discussing it further. IG has otherwise been fine.

UNVOTE:

If anyone wants to talk more about that, let me know.

---

@kelbris:
Your vote for Ecto is based completely on a vote on page 2. What do you think of the rest of the game?

---
In post 192, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 184, Fishythefish wrote:Quickhammering is bad. If there's a vig, they should take out anyone who quickhammers a townie.
Wait, didn't you suspect IceGuy for being a 'super helpful Townie'?
Yes, I did. Saying information-y things that don't actually help the town is very mildly scummy, though it's not a tell I'd bring up past the first few pages. I'm all for information-y things that are actually protown (and I think making potential quickhammers scared of being vigged is actually protown).
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Post Post #256 (isolation #7) » Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:08 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 240, Luca Blight wrote:IceGuy's 'information-y' thing was also pro-town, and why wouldn't you bring it up past the first few pages? Because it doesn't suit your agenda?
'cos it's a really weak scumtell that belongs in the "getting stuff going" phase of the game. And IMO, telling people not to counterclaim a jokeclaim is so unlikely to be needed that it's more likely to be someone wanting to look good than someone who was actually worried about a counterclaim.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #8) » Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:12 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 247, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
In post 237, Fishythefish wrote:@Elmo: Why did you vote mutant in the post quoted above?
In previous games that Ive played granted its been a while. Normally when people post walls or reads it to get people to look the other way at them.
So you are saying mutant was scummy here, trying to get people to read him as town? If so, why did you say this:
In post 127, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
In post 118, Fishythefish wrote:Is giving these reads scummy as well as pointless?
Never said it was scummy.
I'm really, actually trying to work out what you were thinking here, rather than just attacking. I'm not settled on you being scum.
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Post Post #260 (isolation #9) » Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:40 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Hmmm. Scum really don't like getting lynched. I don't buy that Elmo wouldn't try to save herself as scum for some strategic reason. If anything, daytalk makes it less likely for scum to roll over, as they'd have people to advise.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #10) » Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:02 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I agree with 261. The initial vote for mutant and follow-up does look scummy to me, but since then I read Elmo's play as completely-different-from-me rather than scum or town.

And yes (ninja'd) - kelbris's 253 is not good. There's really nothing in there about why Elmo is or isn't scum - it's all about wagon patterns. Scumtastic.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #11) » Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:25 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I've just noticed that the Elmo wagon basically reads like my townlist. This is a good thing in a wagon.
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Post Post #269 (isolation #12) » Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:26 am

Post by Fishythefish »

(The exception being Transcend, who I have no confidence in my ability to read)
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Post Post #301 (isolation #13) » Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:22 am

Post by Fishythefish »

VOTE: kelbris

@kelbris: why do you think Elmo is scum? You say you were "voicing disapproval of Elmo's recent posts" - which posts in a particular, and why do they make Elmo scum? What changed between 253 and 299 to make you vote Elmo?
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Post Post #304 (isolation #14) » Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:35 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 302, Transcend wrote:K but stop lynching obv town and lynch Elmo
Why is kelbris obv town?
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Post Post #306 (isolation #15) » Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:23 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I care, because I don't think Elmo is as obviously scum as you do.
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Post Post #378 (isolation #16) » Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:22 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I don't think the case on Elmo is strong enough that it's not worth hearing from a replacement. While there are some OK reasons for it, I think this wagon has largely happened through Transcend repeating "Elmo is scum" often enough.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #17) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:07 am

Post by Fishythefish »

mutant: almost all those reasons seem to be about Elmo being unhelpful, or bad at convincing people she's town, rather than actually being likely scum. In particular, none of these seem to have any scum motivation:
- Not posting content
- Being uncooperative
- Not answering questions
- Not posting content after saying she would
- Giving up
From your posts, I feel like you don't really think these things are actually alignment-related. This sums it up:
In post 390, mutantdevle wrote:From this point on Elmo had basically just given up. Regardless of alignment, this is an incredibly scummy thing to do.
When I say someone is "scummy", I mean "likely to be scum". So being scummy can't be "regardless of alignment". What do you mean by scummy, and why is it a good thing to lynch someone for?
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Post Post #532 (isolation #18) » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:10 am

Post by Fishythefish »

mutant's Post 454 makes me happier with his reasons for voting Elmo/boring. I disagree with quite a lot of that post, actually, but not in a way that makes me think mutant is dishonest or scummy. I'm not up for a mutant wagon; I think mutant is scumhunting in an open, here-is-what-I'm-thinking way that is fairly hard for scum to fake.

---
In post 423, boring wrote:@Yuria - can you walk me through your kelbris vote? He's not even registering for me yet, so I want to understand why he's your scummiest pick.
I'll play! I think kelbris put Elmo at L-1 without thinking she was actually scum, while trying to excuse it. This is a bad thing to do. I really want answers to these:
In post 301, Fishythefish wrote:VOTE: kelbris

@kelbris: why do you think Elmo is scum? You say you were "voicing disapproval of Elmo's recent posts" - which posts in a particular, and why do they make Elmo scum? What changed between 253 and 299 to make you vote Elmo?
---

I should probably work out if boring is scum. I had a weak scumread on Elmo.

In boring's replace-in post:
- She thinks I'm town *must suppress anti-OMGUS*. Her reasoning makes sense - it would be super-easy to have gone along with an Elmo lynch - but I'm not sure why this is applied to fitz and me and not other people off the wagon. Why is that, boring?
- Her reasoning for mutant-town really rings true with me in parts; particularly "He's cumbersome in a way that scum rarely are. As has already been pointed out by two players now, he's trying to policy me, and he doesn't even seem to realize it."
- I don't see her Luca scumread. I think Luca's early game in particular was really solid - asking sensible, scumhunting questions of a few people. I can see how you get to boring's analysis through a bit of an OMGUS lens.
- I disagree with Transcend that these are particularly convenient scumreads. LucaScum is
not
the obvious choice. I think a random set of reads could be spun in much the way Transcend does.

Since then - I don't really see any reason to think boring is scum. It's not an easy slot to replace into, 'cos Transcend (I'm not saying his behaviour shouldn't be allowed, but it doesn't look fun to play against). I think boring is doing as good a job of it as can be expected.

So yeah, let's defy the dog and not lynch this.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #19) » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:06 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@luca: boring is now around null to me - and I think it's quite likely the spot will be easier to read after more from boring.
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Post Post #623 (isolation #20) » Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:15 pm

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Transcend:
when you are attacked for a joke post, you can defend by saying "you're an idiot GTFO", or you can point out that it was a joke. Doing the latter will end up with a) you being more able to read the other person, b) the other person being more able to read you, and most importantly to me c) a much more pleasant game for everyone to read.

kelbris:
we're in an open setup with no masons - so it's not likely Transcend expected anyone to believe his claim of being masons with you.

Post with content and reads and stuff coming soon.
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Post Post #645 (isolation #21) » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:40 am

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Two things in kelbris's 572 ping me as town:
- Saying that he voted Elmo to get a claim. That would be a weird thing for scum to admit.
- The misunderstanding of the jokeclaim is one that scum would be less likely to do genuinely (having chosen the PRs), and be unlikely to fake.

I'm wondering about Transcend being scum. The only thing I've really to go on is that there's just nothing in his iso that makes me think he's town at all. If he's trying to catch scum at all, rather than just lynch any old person, I'd expect to see something that looks that way.
VOTE: Transcend
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Post Post #647 (isolation #22) » Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:35 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I disagree. Why are you obvtown?
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Post Post #686 (isolation #23) » Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:16 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@Transcend, because you have a history of jokeclaims:

Are you actually, really, irrevocably claiming to be the jailkeeper? If someone else is the jailkeeper, should they be counterclaiming?
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Post Post #688 (isolation #24) » Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:19 pm

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VOTE: boring

I don't think boring is massively scummy, but there's no other lynch that seems likely; anything that we got going at this point would likely be scum driven. And Transcend is right that (after that claim) boring's wagon is a hive of townie goodness.
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Post Post #757 (isolation #25) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

So. Interpretations of Transcend's claim:
1) He's town, who wanted the jailkeeper to protect him or to draw the night-kill in a high-risk gambit.
2) He's town, guessing a PR who he hopes isn't in the game to survive
3) He's scum, happy to swap his life for a jailkeeper
4) He's scum, faking 1) in a high-risk gambit.

Facts/opinions around Transcend's claim:
a) Transcend was not that likely to be lynched (<50%, certainly)
b) Transcend doesn't
seem
overly paranoid about being lynched
c) Scum would be quite likely to shoot a claimed jailkeeper.
d) Transcend seems like he wouldn't be averse to a high-risk gambit.

In light of those:
1) seems plausible
2) seems unlikely
3) seems unlikely
4) seems plausible. It would be a cool scum gambit: if the jailkeeper comes out, you kill them and
might
survive. If the jailkeeper doesn't come out, you no kill and hope to "confirm" yourself.

I don't see 1) and 4) as particularly easy to separate. The payoffs for Transcend are:
AlignmentIf no JKIf counterclaimed and lynchedIf counterclaimed and not lynchedIf JK plays ball
TownOKVery badBadVery good
ScumN/ABadVery goodGood

So it's maybe a slightly better scum gambit; but also harder to think of ('cos your gambitting pretending you're gambitting).

@Transcend wagon:
why do you think scum-Transcend claimed JK?
@People who play mafia on here more than once a year:
how strong is the meta around lynching liars these days? What odds would Transcend have put on getting out of the lynch if he was counterclaimed?
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Post Post #760 (isolation #26) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:11 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I agree that boring is the best lynch. The way the wagon is coming and going and usually being rather townish makes me think the scum don't like it.

Any particular reason you don't think TranscendScum would pull this gambit?
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Post Post #772 (isolation #27) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:15 pm

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In post 765, Yuria wrote:Sure there is, drawing out a PR for someone who was already under suspicion is a fine trade. Better than risking no night kills later.
But... is it really a fine trade? As scum, with one of 2-3 of competing top wagons on you, would you claim to out a JK? I sure as hell wouldn't.

I do think people need to think a bit harder about fakeclaim=>lynch when a) scum have two gifted fakeclaims and b) it definitely wasn't a claim-or-die situation.
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Post Post #774 (isolation #28) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:31 pm

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@Ecto: Transcend has claimed his claimed was a gambit - so Yuria is the real JK. (Or, I suppose, Yuria is scum who knows there is no JK in the game)

@IceGuy: probably not. But I think lynching him for that reason is fairly low information. Transcend would make a great vig target.
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Post Post #782 (isolation #29) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:09 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 779, IceGuy wrote:
In post 774, Fishythefish wrote: @IceGuy: probably not. But I think lynching him for that reason is fairly low information. Transcend would make a great vig target.
We don't even know whether we have a vig. Also, since he has pushed pretty much everybody in the game, those interactions can be reviewed with the knowledge of his flip.
Thinking harder about the information - if Transcend flips scum, that would be interesting. If he flips town, his pushes don't tell us anything, and his wagon will also be tricky to get much out of.

I don't think Transcend is particularly likely scum, and I don't think he's antitown enough to policy lynch (even if there's no vig).
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Post Post #784 (isolation #30) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:15 pm

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- boring scum because of the shape of the day - I think scum have been avoiding his wagons
- IceGuy has seemed OK, but needs rereading because he's a topic of conversation for some reason
- Various townreads I'm not bothering to talk about
- No strong scumreads
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Post Post #814 (isolation #31) » Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:51 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Is anyone on the IceGuy wagon up for giving me a summary of it? I'll be reading it hard tomorrow, but I'm too sleepy atm.
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Post Post #815 (isolation #32) » Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:06 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

(for clarity, that's RL tomorrow - likely in about 12 hours)
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Post Post #822 (isolation #33) » Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:20 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Yuria, havingfitz, Rem, sheep:
there are 10 hours to go today. We are lynching Ice or boring. Your next post absolutely must vote for one of those people.

I think IceGuy and boring should claim - much later and an interesting claim risks a no lynch.

I don't have a strong read on IceGuy. I think he is a fairly likely partner for boring, but associative tells in a large game before flips are crap (because scum reads aren't good enough).
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Post Post #831 (isolation #34) » Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:12 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I'll be on close to deadline. I much prefer a boring lynch, but would vote Ice to avoid a no lynch.
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Post Post #840 (isolation #35) » Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:24 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 804, davesaz wrote:

IceGuy(4) - boring, kelbris, Ectomancer, Transcend
boring(4) - Luca Blight, DeasVail, Fishythefish, mutantdevle
Transcend(2) - Yuria, havingfitz
sheepsaysmeep(1) - Rem
Ectomancer(1) - IceGuy

not voting (1) - sheepsaysmeep

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch
(expired on 2017-11-12 15:00:00)

Unofficial votecount: still like this, except IceGuy is voting no lynch.
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Post Post #843 (isolation #36) » Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:54 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Nah, the timer changes, so it's correct whenever you are reading it.
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Post Post #849 (isolation #37) » Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:59 am

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VOTE: IceGuy
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Post Post #953 (isolation #38) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Transcend

I think the Transcend wagon is a bad one:
- His claim is not scummy. His stated reason for making the claim is a plausible gambit, and I've not seen one person voting for him giving a better explanation. Yes, the claim ended up being negative for the town, and I happen to agree that it was unwise (though not clearly so). That isn't enough to justify why scum!Transcend would have done it.
- UC's point here about "random pushes he didn't back up at all" is better. I'm not good at reading a playstyle like Transcend, but his D1 pushes certainly never made me think he was town.
- If we are policy lynching
to win the game
, Transcend is not the best policy lynch. His playstyle is hard to read, but information heavy. You can bet that if he's here on, say, D4, he'll have had enough interactions that we have a good chance at reading him. We'd do better to lynch whoever is least contentful.
- The only reason I see to lynch Transcend is a policy lynch
to have more fun
. And
I'm not here to have fun
I don't think that's the way of dealing with that problem (I also don't find the game less fun with Transcend in it, except in sympathy when other people find it really awful).

DV

Rereading because he's what's hot - I'm kind of torn.
- I agree that he's playing a safe game - Luca puts it well here.
- In specific posts, nothing makes me think scum and a few things make me think town; that's put him in my townpile until now. I quite like his big reads post - particularly the reads on Viomi and sheep, which seem very honest. Post 84 also pinged me as town, though now Luca's got me thinking that it's a weird thing to think, and so maybe that ping was deliberate.

Overall, I think he could be scum who is good at pressing some of my towntell buttons.
VOTE: DV

I think
boring
is pretty likely to be scum given Day 1. The wagons through the day, never quite reaching a lynch, which were full of townie goodness - I don't think scum wanted that lynch. It's a really... er... dull way of thinking someone's scum, because there's no way to respond to it. I've got no strong read on boring's actual play.

There are a few too many people in this game who I can't really think of anything interesting about. I'll be sorting that out soon - this weekend at the latest.
In post 934, Transcend wrote:fishy still reads town but i specced a game he was scum in and beasted it so i'm a lil scared
Ha. I was wondering if you were going to start doubting me here after you commented on that one. TBH I have very little reassurance for you - I don't know a reliable way to tell my scum game from my town game.
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Post Post #959 (isolation #39) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:26 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 955, Transcend wrote:Fishy why do i feel like you're white knighting me

You wanted me dead so badly yesterday
Reread me - I really didn't.
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Post Post #966 (isolation #40) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:24 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 961, havingfitz wrote:And I would say the Fish vote on DV is the first thing he's done that strikes me as suspect. He basically admits he is torn and talks about all the town things he sees wrt DV and then decides to vote him for coming across as town. This despite the person he voted to end D1 still being "pretty likely to be scum" in his estimation. I don't get his support of the Luca DV points or his preference for a DV vote over others.
I'm not voting DV for coming across as town. What I was saying (or trying to say) was:
- There have been a few things DV has done that pinged me as town; those were what my read was based on before my reread.
- One of the points Luca made makes me doubt one of those town-pings as fake, which makes me discount them a bit.
- When I look at his play overall, it fits very well with under-the-radar scum.
So yes, I am torn, but overall I think the scumminess outweighs the few things that made me think he was town. Does that make sense?

On thinking DV scum despite DV voting boring - a) I don't have a strong enough scumread on boring for that to influence my thinking and b) I actually don't think they are unlikely partners at all. DV's play (joining the wagon twice at L-1) fits quite well with scum who doesn't want their partner to die, but wants to look good if they do.

To expand on why I think DV fits with under-the-radar scum: basically, I don't think he's done anything controversial all game. His votes have been easy ones - on large wagons or in one case a lurker - and his other scumreads have been caveated enough not to cause any conflict. Check these out, from DV's major reads post:
In post 554, DeasVail wrote:
Transcend - Weak Scum


I can't explain this read very well, but I remember getting the impression at the beginning of the game that despite the trolliness and hyper-posting, there was a pro-town agenda there. I could see a strong town argument for how Transcend was approaching the game. However, now as I'm looking through his posts, I'm struck by the odd feeling that Transcend doesn't really have that much belief in his reads or what he's saying. It feels.... hollow somehow.
I don't want to pursue this scumread (if you could even call it that) right now and it's probably the least confident of all my reads, but it's something I will be thinking about.


-

Boring -
Somewhere between town and scum


Elmo's play perfectly fit the mold of caught scum for me, but I need to account for the likelihood of confirmation bias there as boring's posts in isolation probably wouldn't lead me to a scumread on the slot. Elmo's play will always have an impact on my read here, but there are things from boring that I do like. I like that she took on Luca Blight, one of the more prolific and dominant posters upon entering the thread. As weird as it might sound, I like the back-and-forth that she's done on her read of me. The way she's done it feels town to me. Nothing SUPERTOWN, though.

(Mild niggle from her suspicion of me for putting "easy targets" in the lynch pool, when she came in attacking Luca Blight. Did she do that because she associates going after stronger players with town? Hmmm.)

I will be watching you!

-

kelbris - Weak Scum

There's not much there and again, I have found myself agreeing with other people's posts on him.
I don't think I'll be voting there right now though.


-

sheepsaysmeep - Weak Scum


In the interest of full disclosure, I've gone into this reads list thinking that this is where I'd end up voting. He's coasted by with very little attention while doing barely anything and it does get to the point where my previous town-lean for his blatant "I'm not reading the thread" does not really fly anymore. And I think this is that time. I feel like town would have gotten their act together and actually tried to contribute by now, especially considering the uncertainty following boring's replace-in. While I guess there's no reason for scum to if he's not in the line of fire for it.

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep
Bolding mine. DV gives three scummish reads ('cos that read on boring is actually a scumread) while making it clear he's not doing anything about them, and then votes a lurker. This really looks like DV is going out of his way not to get into fights with his scumreads.
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Post Post #970 (isolation #41) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

VOTE: UC

968 is such a bad case I think UC must have started with a decision to jump on the DV wagon and gone from there. (I can go into detail some time if nobody else rips it apart first, but right now it's time to sleep)
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Post Post #993 (isolation #42) » Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:34 am

Post by Fishythefish »

So yeah, UC's case on DV is just impressively bad.
- Some of it is things that just aren't scumtells
- Some of it is places where UC has misread DV, or is misrepresenting him badly
- In one juicy bit, I think UC slips that he knows boring's alignment
I think this case clearly came from a UC deciding to vote DV, and then justifying it - I just can't imagine it being a genuine read from DV's posting. That's not something town never do, but scum do it a hell of a lot more.

Luca
: what do you think about UC here?
In post 968, UC Voyager wrote: Im reading DV's iso and it is terrifying

He has several naked votes! This pings me for scum! I do not see where the town motivation in naked voting is
UC doesn't explain why these are scummy, but hey, this is gold dust compared to the rest of the case.
In post 968, UC Voyager wrote: --------------------------------------------
He says that he scum reads sheep, transcend, and Kelbris then votes for Boring????? what the hell
These posts are 6 pages apart with massive wagon context UC ignores.
In post 968, UC Voyager wrote: earlier he made a crazy lynch pool then voted for Iceguy who wasn't even listed!
That's just not true. DV did
unvote
IceGuy, which I guess was what UC saw here.
In post 968, UC Voyager wrote: He has said things like
"scum are more emotionally involved"
This terrifies me because he hasn't been a huge power player. He is trying to tell us how scum act, so they can act differently, so he can avoid scum reads!
The point about DV saying scum are emotionally involved while being a backseat player himself kinda sounds good, but read it in context. Firstly, DV said scum are
less
emotionally involved. Secondly, DV said that about Viomi replacing out. There's no reading of it where it is relevant to people who aren't getting upset about the game. Go read this in context.
In post 968, UC Voyager wrote:he said that he won't be active til tomorrow
makes one post
i will be v/la for the next few days
I know that people can't control when they are v/la but the fact he made a post after he said he wouldn't be able to post for a day
Going on V/LA is just not a scumtell.
In post 968, UC Voyager wrote:He was not pushing Boring til the end of day one. before that, he was pushing for someone else.
It really seems like he was trying to earn some town credit for not being on the wagon. I don't even see where he made a case on boring.
Huh?
Does UC know boring is town?
I don't see how else this makes sense.
In post 968, UC Voyager wrote:He town readed sheep for a while, then pulled a 180 and voted for me!


scum will avoid the lynch 30% of the time! They do this because it is easy town credit, and i am thinking there is a good chance of a scum buddy bussing!
I don't know what this means.
@UC:
what lynch were you talking about here, and who are you referring to when you talk about bussing?
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Post Post #995 (isolation #43) » Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:58 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Thanks. It's helpful (if dispiriting) to hear that meta. The reason I think that might be a scumslip is that otherwise UC is just criticising DV for not being on a wagon. Without the knowledge of who the wagon was on, I don't see what UC's point is.
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Post Post #998 (isolation #44) » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:44 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@havingfitz:
I'm not quite sure from your posting - do you think Transcend is scum, or just antitown? I don't think there's any more likely reason for his claim than the gambit he's claimed. While that claim was antitown, it's hardly likely he's going to fakeclaim
again
.
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Post Post #1012 (isolation #45) » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:29 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1005, UC Voyager wrote:meh. i might as well

1) how am i miss reading it?
2) how is it artificial
3) i didn't slip. i was just finding it scummy he said he scum read someone, but then voted for someone else. I don't see how i could imply that i knew Borings allignment
I think this is a response to my summary. You really have to get into the individual points to answer 1) and 2).

3) - firstly, looking again I don't actually think this is a scumslip. Sorry, that was too strong. Have you read that boring vote in context? In particular, it was close to the end of the day, and Transcend had claimed JK.
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #46) » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Ecto: that's an interesting way to play. With the obvious drawback (for others) of making you hard to read. Is it a style you've used before?
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #47) » Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:48 am

Post by Fishythefish »

OK, cool. I think this is a town move, and endorse Ectomancer as unemotional, analytical hammerer-in-chief.
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #48) » Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:01 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1029, DeasVail wrote:
In post 1027, Fishythefish wrote:OK, cool. I think this is a town move, and endorse Ectomancer as unemotional, analytical hammerer-in-chief.
I’m not as passionate about scum-Ecto as I was yesterday, but why do you think they are town?
I think Ecto's move to not get involved in the fray is something scum wouldn't think of (or wouldn't have the guts to try). That's why I asked if Ecto has done this before - that would have made it pretty null.
---
Why do people think ProHawk is scum? That slot's been a whole lot of nothing AFAIC.
---
In post 1044, boring wrote:And I'd like input on my observation that Fitz is only putting in self-defence effort, as opposed to game-solving effort. Isn't that ultimately the behavior we look for in scum? Maybe it's the liberal quantities of vodka surging through my blood-stream, but I believe my Fitz-related observations are pretty fucking sweet, and they've been ignored. I'm like this close from straight up pouting over it.
If it will stop you pouting - I agree that fitz's highest effort moments have been defence. But I think his effort on other things has been OK, and mounting robust defences is not a scumtell. The only thing I dislike about fitz is his Transcend vote - I'm not sure I quite believe fitz is the type to go for a straight-up policy lynch.
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Post Post #1086 (isolation #49) » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:09 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1074, boring wrote:
In post 1064, Fishythefish wrote: Why do people think ProHawk is scum? That slot's been a whole lot of nothing AFAIC.
I think the high drop-out rate, especially with this being a relatively hostile game, is a mechanical tell. Also, no one's done anything pro-town with the slot. I don't really even see attempts. It leads me to assume that the scum buddies are just asking them to stall and go down easy, as the slot is close to unsalvageable.

Now, the LUV/Viomi/Rem/ProHawk slot isn't my first choice for lynch today. It's still feasible that it's just a cursed VT slot. More significantly, if we can't find someone more prominently scummy to agree on by the end of the day, we're in trouble anyway.

But still, the fact that no one has gone all opportunistic on the slot, despite Transcend pushing for it, and me and Luca verbally supporting it, makes me think scum are avoiding it for a reason.
I don't think a high drop-out rate is a scumtell; if anything the opposite. Do you really think scum would ever tell a slot like that to stall and go down easy?? They'd be crying out for ProHawk to actually do something; a contentless slot is easily salvageable.

I agree that the ProHawk slot isn't a terrible lynch, but right now I think it would be a bad idea to settle for it.

(Not yet thought about UC's case on mutant; this is just a quick post)
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #50) » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:48 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1087, Luca Blight wrote:Right now my list of 'Most likely to flip scum' is as follows: (in no particular order)

UCV
Kelbris
Fitz
Pr0Hawk
Deas
This is close to my list; I'd sub in boring for fitz, but otherwise LGTM.

@UC:
what do you now think of Deas? You seemed very sure he was scum; has that changed?

@ProHawk:
your post doesn't really give any alignment reads on any people who are actually being voted for (Transcend, DV, UC). Is there any more you can say on them (maybe by reading them more specifically)?
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Post Post #1159 (isolation #51) » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:05 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1157, Luca Blight wrote:I'm not having a go at you, I'm just stating a fact: whether you like it or not, you are scummy as both alignments - hence why I don't want to point out all the scummy shit you've done this game (there's a lot of it) as it can all be dismissed with "but he's scummy as Town also". I'm looking deeper, at the intricacies between your scum and Town play, and I believe this is your scum game. Nothing so far has lead me to believe otherwise.
What I'm seeing from UC is cases which I just don't believe are real; I'm pretty sure they came about through skimming someone's ISO
after
deciding to vote for them. Is that, specifically, NAI for UC?

---
In post 1134, Transcend wrote:Btw boring is still scum imo.
This is true. Anyone else interesting in a boring wagon?
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Post Post #1176 (isolation #52) » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:59 am

Post by Fishythefish »

UC: to go for one particular thing, I addressed your case on DV in quite a lot of detail in 993. Did any of that change your thinking on your case against DV? Is any of it something you want to respond to persuade others of your case?

I could ask the same about mutant's rebuttal of your case on him in 1103. I find it hard to believe you make these big cases, people post quite thorough responses, and you just don't have anything to say after that.
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Post Post #1179 (isolation #53) » Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:46 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1177, havingfitz wrote:So Pro....no misdirection intended. Let me be more clear (hopefully).

Question to Pro
---> do you think Transcend is town or scum and does that answer impact your read on me?

So your scum!fitz premise is that I knew Transcend was lying and responded the way I did to implicate him.

If you want to propagate a theory that there is not an IC in this game that's fine. I think that is a major reach given that IMO IC is the weakest of the PRs available and there has not been a PYP game yet () that hasn't had an IC. Granted...none of them had a JK either so you never know. I don't think there is a 2*Vig because there wasn't a 2nd nk N1. So that leaves 2 of three between IC/1-shot Cop/and Tracker. If I had to bet it would be the 1*Cop and scum take their chances on a single investigation along with an IC. Vice a tracker that could track every night. If you think scum are more likely to select a cop or tracker over an IC then we're done talking and you're delusional.

If there IS an IC...

Scum!me would know there was an IC but not know who it was, so my mod confirmation question would be coming from a legitimate confirmation objective....i.e. NAI.

Town!me would not know what PRs are out there but my opinion would be that there was almost gauranteed to be an IC. And as I also said...if someone is going to claim a PR and I have a way of confirming it (ex. mod confirmation)...I'm going to ask to have it confirmed. And in this case it happened to expose Transcend as fakeclaiming. Which after a little more discussion I was willing to accept as a joke (the who innocent "chile" wording smartassery).


The voting Transcend bit was regarding the fact that you push a case on me being scum because I knew transcend was lying and tried to out him...yet you share the similar opinion that he needs to be out of the game and are voting with the person you are scum reading (me) for trying to implicate transcend and get him out of the game.

I.e you are saying I am scum but agree with me.


tl:dr;


1. I'm town.
2. I believe there is an IC in this game
as history would suggest.

3. Pro's push on me is based on scum!me knowing there ISN'T an IC in this game (see pt 2).
4. Despite scum reading me Pro agrees with my logic regarding getting rid of Transcend.
5. Pro's push on me is scummy for points 1, 3 & 5.
6. VOTE: ProHawk
Hmmm. I don't think that it's obvious enough there's an IC that it's scummy to disagree (though I would bet a lot on there being one).

OTOH, your opening demand for a claim is a ridiculously small thing to base a scumread on at this stage of the game.

PEdit:huh. I really didn't expect that :)
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Post Post #1221 (isolation #54) » Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:44 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I find Luca's meta on UC pretty convincing. It helps with my nagging fears that this is just UC's game.
In post 1208, boring wrote:I'm sorry everyone, but I'm just crazy tinfoiling Fishy. I've been trying to trust my gut more, and I can't get him out of my head.

VOTE: Fishythefish
Anything specific that pings your gut? I realise I've been a bit quieter today - that's a time thing (which will definitely improve from the end of next week, and I hope before).
In post 1207, havingfitz wrote:
In post 1179, Fishythefish wrote:OTOH, your opening demand for a claim is a ridiculously small thing to base a scumread on at this stage of the game.
I never demanded a claim. I followed up Transcend's unsolicited claim with a request he mod confirm it.
Yep, this should have read "your opening demand for IC-confirmation...". The same applies - it's a weird thing to base your main scumread on on page 45.
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Post Post #1236 (isolation #55) » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:51 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1226, boring wrote:You've played a safe game. Very safe. You've not taken a single risk, you've not made any waves.
I really don't think this is a good summary of my game. I might back that up more fully at some point, but I think I've started or tried to start a few wagons, pushed back on some bad cases, and generally tried hard to work out who scum is.

I agree that if you're town, staying off your wagon is not very AI.
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Post Post #1260 (isolation #56) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:24 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In a game which probably has an IC, a quickhammer is very stupid. From Transcend, I also think it's scummy. I'm inclined to think he expects to get away with it because of people *already* saying he's antitown but not scummy.
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Post Post #1315 (isolation #57) » Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:26 am

Post by Fishythefish »

VOTE: Transcend
I think that hammer is *very* likely to be a bus.

@Transcend:
did you think about whether UC might be a PR (including Innocent Child) before hammering? If so, why did you hammer?
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Post Post #1323 (isolation #58) » Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:51 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Transcend: why do you think a cop has an inno on you?

I don't think it's easy to tell how many scum were on the UC lynch. I certainly don't see why it wouldn't be two.

What was bad about ProHawk's twilight?
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Post Post #1327 (isolation #59) » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:06 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Eh. I don't think that post assumes UC's flip much.

So yeah, I think you're scum. I struggle to believe you'd actually hammer UC as town without thinking about his possible roles. As scum, you don't need to think about that - you already know the flip.
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Post Post #1332 (isolation #60) » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:24 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Do you lolhammer because you don't think claims will change your mind, or because you don't care that much about winning, or for some other reason?
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Post Post #1437 (isolation #61) » Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:28 am

Post by Fishythefish »

VT. Low activity period ends on Saturday.
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Post Post #1451 (isolation #62) » Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:36 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I'm not sure I'd have done massclaim, but at this point I think the PR should just claim. Very little sense staying hidden with fitz out, as scum have a PR they can kill either way.

fitz's hypoclaiming is an excellent way to go.
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Post Post #1478 (isolation #63) » Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:12 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I'm going to ignore the hypoclaims at the moment; if at any point either PR strongly thinks we should do a particular thing but doesn't want to explain, I think we should follow that.

My scum-to-town order is DV > kelbris >> ProHawk > boring.

UC

- UC's play on DV is really weird. UC voted DV with a massive case here. I pointed out lots of problems with it, and UC said I was right and unvoted here, after initially dismissing it. That felt weird at the time - I didn't really expect UC to be capable of that turnaround. I think this could well be UC backing off a bus.
- boring looks quite townie on the UC wagon - she voted UC (1191), but then almost immediately moved to me (1208). I was obviously never getting lynched yesterday, so this play ties boring into lynching UC without properly getting credit and without pushing a plausible alternative. It doesn't look like something scum would do.
- Otherwise, the wagon is not that interesting - kelbris and ProHawk both hopped on when UC was already in quite deep.

DV

My thoughts on DV haven't changed too much from here. Still looks like under the radar scum.

kelbris

I don't have much of a read on most of kelbris's game; it looks quite like scum doing the least possible stuff to get by. Very plausible scum.

ProHawk

The little PH's slot has done looks fine to me. PH has done quite a lot when shit got real today, including closing off some lynch options - that's not something scum would be wanting to do.

boring

My read on Elmo/boring is a bit of a mess. Overall, it comes out on the townish side of null.
- I think Elmo was a bit scummy.
- The way boring had lots of strong wagons day 1, with mostly town players on them, looks like scum.
- boring's play has been fine. Nothing spectacular, but she seems to be trying to work out what's what.
- I townread her yesterday. Both on the UC wagon (see above), and for going after me. I don't think scum have much reason to do that, and it's totally plausible to start SRing me when my posts become less frequent and good.
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Post Post #1499 (isolation #64) » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:30 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I strongly think that if a player has no-visited, we shouldn't be lynching them today. Being 50% less likely to be scum is a Big Deal.

Luckily, all the possible information (both cop and tracker) is good for ProHawk or boring, and I don't want to lynch them anyway.
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Post Post #1501 (isolation #65) » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:35 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@kelbris: your recent set of reads seems to be based almost completely on today - have you got any thoughts on things before that?

@DV: who is scum other than boring?
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Post Post #1508 (isolation #66) » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:26 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I had a bit of speculation typed out about what scum might or might not do, but actually I think we shouldn't talk about it. I don't think there's valuable information in the lack of PR fakeclaims - any chain of logic is going to be super-tenuous - and talking about it with PRs might give scum some info we'd rather they didn't have.
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Post Post #1512 (isolation #67) » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:41 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1510, ProHawk wrote:If anyone decides at this point to change their claims, they should be auto-lynched.
Sure. That's not what I mean - assuming all the claims are true, I think the discussion on claim strategy could reveal information about which PR is which (and I also think that discussion has little or no value).
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Post Post #1521 (isolation #68) » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:04 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1516, boring wrote:Compare Deas's posts today with these games where he was town
viewtopic.php?t=72397&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=63443&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
He's easy, breezy, beautiful DeasVail.

Deas's Scum game: this is the Deas we're seeing.
viewtopic.php?t=62742&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
This is good stuff, actually. That scum game is way more analytical and cold than the town ones, and matches DV here better.

I don't particularly like kelbris's play today; I think kelbris is trying to survive and say stuff rather than hunt scum. But I'm more confident in a
VOTE: DeasVail

It may turn out to be wishful thinking, but I'm kind of feeling we've nailed both the scum here.
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Post Post #1540 (isolation #69) » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:52 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@fitz, mutant: what are you thinking?

@kelbris: could you explain what you saw in DV's meta that changed your mind?
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Post Post #1549 (isolation #70) » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:36 am

Post by Fishythefish »

^ I agree. My gut is that DV's post was a fake (and somewhat desperate) attempt to "townslip".

I'm around, but don't have much to say. I'd like to hear a bit more from kelbris about DV.
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Post Post #1566 (isolation #71) » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:52 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@mutant: I'm not quite sure what you mean by "sucking up to the PRs". You two are confirmed town - so naturally people are going to a) not accuse you of stuff and b) value your opinions.

My read on ProHawk is here. Today, he's looked fine - his posting mirrors my thinking, except I'm slightly more sure on DV and less on kelbris; I think kelbris could reasonably be town playing only to survive.

Thinking about it, I'm slightly wary of fitz and mutant giving reads on players they have possible information on. There's no reason to give scum hints as to which PR is which.
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #72) » Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:27 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Not much new from me. A quick summary of where I am:
- boring and PH look mildly town. boring looked good to me on Day 2, and PH seems to be trying hard to do things well now.
- kelbris hasn't done very much, and his reads today are primarily intended for survival. That's probably scum.
- DV has posted quite a lot while mostly avoiding doing anything interesting, and looks like under-the-radar scum. I think UC's play on DV was bussing.

I'm a bit sad that my pretty good Day 1 play in this game has been diluted by being inactive Day 2.
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Post Post #1600 (isolation #73) » Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:01 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1595, DeasVail wrote:
In post 1593, Fishythefish wrote:Not much new from me. A quick summary of where I am:
- boring and PH look mildly town. boring looked good to me on Day 2, and PH seems to be trying hard to do things well now.
- kelbris hasn't done very much, and his reads today are primarily intended for survival. That's probably scum.
- DV has posted quite a lot while mostly avoiding doing anything interesting, and looks like under-the-radar scum. I think UC's play on DV was bussing.

I'm a bit sad that my pretty good Day 1 play in this game has been diluted by being inactive Day 2.
How would it make sense for me to be under the radar scum when I’m at L-1?
I suppose "failed under the radar scum" would be a better term :P

Post 966 gives my thoughts about your day 1. Since then, there's still nothing in your posting that makes me think you're town - it's been very mainstream wagons (boring, Transcend), except for a brief poke at Ecto. The cold, analytical style fits your scum meta better than your town meta. And I think you fit well with DV.

Today, you've done more, but that fits with desperation of being caught scum (possibly even with a caught partner). Your push on boring looks pretty bad to me - I'd really expect town in your position to be arguing why boring is scum, but you mostly lost interest when a boring-lynch wasn't on the table.
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Post Post #1612 (isolation #74) » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:45 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Then let's put DV out of his misery.
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Post Post #1621 (isolation #75) » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@boring: what makes you think ProHawk/kelbris is impossible?

All this talk of pairs is making me worried about DV flipping town.
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Post Post #1628 (isolation #76) » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:51 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1623, boring wrote:
In post 1621, Fishythefish wrote:@boring: what makes you think ProHawk/kelbris is impossible?

All this talk of pairs is making me worried about DV flipping town.
In post 1594, boring wrote:
Kelbris + Prohawk
= Kelbris, you're a nice guy, but I don't believe you subtle enough to fake this dynamic, and Prohawk's slot has had too much turnover. Just no.
Also, Prohawk would lose nothing from pushing Deas or me today instead, if Kelbris was his partner.
Yeah, I saw that. I'm not sure what you mean though - what is the dynamic you see between the slots, and why is the turnover relevant?

Eh. If the team is Prohawk+kelbris, bussing for towncred today would make quite a lot of sense - it's clear PH has the better chance of getting through the game.

Less than a day to go - let's get this done. I won't be online for the last ~6 hours because timezones.
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Post Post #1645 (isolation #77) » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:04 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Just to put this somewhere convenient:
In post 1438, havingfitz wrote:- I'm the tracker. I tracked Yuria N1 and he visited Transcend. I visited boring N2 and mutant last night...neither of them went anywhere but this only a 50% confirmation of their innocence (i.e. not confirmed town).
So, that's a visit to boring on a night when it was DV and one scum left. If that scum had been boring, would she have done the kill? At a first glance, there wouldn't have been a lot to choose on - both slots had come under some pressure D2, and boring also D1.

Still, that means that boring is 50% less likely to be scum, which is a big deal.

The DV flip also makes me think that boring is town. I don't see the cross-bus yesterday as a particularly likely move from the scum.

I'm pretty confident it's kelbris here.

----

mutant: I thought fitz was a tracker or cop (because he thought up the whole hypoclaims thing), and you were cop or IC (because you seemed to think the third role was watcher!)
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Post Post #1654 (isolation #78) » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:33 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1649, boring wrote:
In post 1645, Fishythefish wrote:
mutant: I thought fitz was a tracker or cop (because he thought up the whole hypoclaims thing), and you were cop or IC (
because you seemed to think the third role was watcher!
)
What do you mean by this?
In mutant's hypoclaim post, he said "watcher" instead of "tracker". I thought he'd probably be less likely to mess up his own role's name. Though I didn't think all that hard about the possible reasons - obviously, asking for clarification would have been a bad idea :D
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Post Post #1657 (isolation #79) » Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:23 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Watcher is not one of the roles available in the game.
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Post Post #1669 (isolation #80) » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:55 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Yeah, I see kelbris's lack of understanding of the setup as a towntell. As mutant says, there are three possibilities:
- Genuinely poorly informed town. Totally plausible.
- Genuinely poorly informed scum. Also possible, but less likely - scum tend to be more up on the setup than town (particularly I'd expect here, where they chose the setup)
- Faking poorly informed scum. Least likely IMO - this isn't something I think scum fake much or easily.

Overall, though, I still think kelbris is scum. He's not done much more than the minimum to survive all game, and his day 4 100% fits with trying to survive and not caring about much else.

I disagree with boring's points on Prohawk in 1665. a) and b) are good descriptions of Prohawk, but I just don't think they are things scum does more than town. They might be good candidates for a meta dive, because I can imagine them being good scumtells on a per-player basis. For c), both kelbris and Prohawk claim they thought fitz was the tracker, and that would have been why they killed him.
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Post Post #1686 (isolation #81) » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:07 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1674, ProHawk wrote:
In post 1669, Fishythefish wrote:Yeah, I see kelbris's lack of understanding of the setup as a towntell
This is my point. There is literally evidence in the thread that he SHOULD have an understanding of the setup. I am telling you he is throwing a hail-mary and trying to fake town-tells
I think that "evidence in the thread" (as you outlined here) is weak. You cited kelbris not understanding a key part of the setup (that there are only a limited number of roles). Clearing up that misunderstanding doesn't mean kelbris would understand everything else.
In post 1675, ProHawk wrote:Boring, go look at Kelb r is' posts and show me town motivation in ANY of them.
I think this is fair; I think kelbris's posts are better explained by "wants to survive" than any other motivation. That's something that's hugely scummy in some people, but less so in someone who's a bit less engaged and thoughtful about the game. It's still a scumtell, and it's still a big reason I want to lynch kelbris, but I don't see it as so certain as you.
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Post Post #1693 (isolation #82) » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:57 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@mutant: please could you share which games you are basing that meta of kelbris on? I'd like to check it out myself, and we may as well use the same games.
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Post Post #1703 (isolation #83) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Tried briefly to meta kelbris. Unless I'm missing something, kelbris doesn't have a completed scum game since early 2015? In which case, I honestly don't think meta on him is going to be very valuable.

@Prohawk: I don't think you argument about lynch order makes much sense. With 1 scum left, you being town doesn't tell us anything very much - if X is unlikely to be scum if you are town, then X is unlikely to be scum already.

I find I don't have terribly much to say. I can't really see what would change my mind in my read order; and particularly, I just don't see myself wanting to lynch boring today or tomorrow - there are far too many moderately good reasons to think she's town.
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Post Post #1715 (isolation #84) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:37 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@PH: my day 1 read on kelbris was:
- Scummy for a bad vote on Elmo
- Back to somewhere around null after a couple of things pinged me as town
Since then, I think kelbris has become a lot more focused on his own survival, and PoE is biting down harder on people there's no strong reason to think are town.

---
In post 1711, boring wrote:My current thoughts:

1) I was shocked to notice how much time Deas and Sheep/UCV spent on one another's wagon. I didn't recall them particularly pushing one another, like, at all. So to see the votes sitting there seems especially staged.

2) I remember UCV bragging that we wouldn't figure out the scum team. If two of them were putting that much work into distancing (at least in posterity), it would stand to reason that scum #3 was in on it (as far as he was capable).

3) If this was planned, someone had to be planning. Can we attribute this kind of play to those we've already identified as scum (UCV/Sheep and Deas), or is there someone more strategic than them involved?

4) With all that distancing effort on previous days, why would either Kelbris and Prohawk risk being linked to Deas on Day 4 (assuming one is scum)? Were UCV and Sheep both manically strong-arming them into a strategy they abandoned after the slot's departure?

5) There have been a lot of town-on-town wagons. All of our scum have been found through investigation/proactivity on town's part. None have just fallen into our laps. To the contrary, all of the mislynches seem to have fallen into the scum team's lap. Therefore, the last scum wouldn't have been forced to be/seem particularly scummy in order to get to this point.

6) These VCs put Fishy back on the map for me (more accurately, they dampen my scum reads on both Kelbris and Prohawk).

7) Why would UCV be so cocky about a scum team of UCV/Deas/Kelbris, or UCV/Deas/Prohawk? No offence guys, but at that point in the game (and even now), that's not a super-threatening combination. Now, UCV/Deas/Fishy: that's a lot stronger.

8) Today is the last day we can afford a mislynch. If we lynch Fishy today and he's town, we're back to the same decision: Kelbris or Prohawk. If we lynch either Kelbris or Prohawk today, and either flip town, we're a lot more likely to lynch the other in LYLO.

9) If you imagine Fishy in red, the VCs on Days 2 and 4 look just like Day 1.
1) Agreed.

2/7) For anyone else looking for where this is, UCV said the scum would probably win here. Yeah, I think this points to me over anyone else still alive - I also don't think a UCV/DV/boring team was looking all that hot at this point, though that's now changed. I can see a few other explanations - perhaps it was just about the DV/UCV bus, or perhaps UCV is over-confident or lying.

3) Eh. The plan here is "let's bus". I'm not sure the scum needed Machiavelli to come up with that one.

4) The "effort on previous days" was all about distancing UCV from DV. The thing that wastes that effort is surely lynching DV?

5) Agreed. The scum will have been doing whatever they think looks best on mislynches, so it's going to be hard to find them there.

6) That's a pity. Which points feed into that? 2/3/7?

9) What do you mean by that? If you imagine me in red, Day 2 is an unholy orgy of bussing (I voted for scum all day *preens*), whereas Day 1 doesn't have any scum wagons.

One thing I'm struggling with here (related to 4) is what this bussing was supposed to achieve. There was zero effort on Day 4 to leverage the UCV/DV distancing to prevent DV's lynch. DV didn't even talk about that while in flail mode. That makes it less likely that there was some grand plan at work here; if there was, it fell very flat.

---

One other thing that leaps out of that VCA for me is the day 1 boring wagon. It's 100% town (and actually went to L-1 with Transcend in a move that never got recorded in VCs). It then dissolved when Elmo got replaced. I'm not quite sure what to think here:
- If boring is town, scum passed up an easy mislynch by never getting involved.
- If boring is scum, scum risked a buddy being lynched with zero involvement. That doesn't seem that odd, until you remember the sort of distancing that went on between UCV and DV later - I doubt the scumteam would have done that.
So, I think overall I think this is points weakly at boring being town. And actually kelbris - kelbris was under a bit of threat, which means it would be less likely for scum to be happy to pass up the wagon on Elmo.

The other thing that leapt out is the D1 kelbris wagon dissolving. If kelbris is scum, that usual inference would be that scum caused the wagon to disappear - either by hopping of themselves, or ginning up other likely wagons. Here, I can't see how that fits; there's just nothing the scumteam in this case (kelbris/UCV/DV) do to make that happen. So I think this is NAI for kelbris; whether he's town or scum, his wagon disappeared because of town.
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Post Post #1722 (isolation #85) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:15 am

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Huh. kelbris, any idea what made you confuse me and sheep?
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Post Post #1729 (isolation #86) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:13 am

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I'm ready to lynch kelbris - he's most likely scum, I think it's clear that's the way we're going, and we're not getting much more out of this day. Any objections?

My activity is going to be kind of low from tomorrow until 27th December. I'll be around, but don't expect too much.
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Post Post #1751 (isolation #87) » Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:23 pm

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Speaking of effort - none from me until Wednesday night. Pretty sure I'm going to be voting Prohawk, but will review to make sure I'm not missing anything and bring my thoughts together.
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Post Post #1755 (isolation #88) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:38 am

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In post 1752, ProHawk wrote:
In post 1751, Fishythefish wrote:Pretty sure I'm going to be voting Prohawk
Why?
Short answer: I've seen several medium-sized things that make me think boring is town, which add up to a pretty firm read.

Long answer: this time tomorrow.
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Post Post #1757 (isolation #89) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:47 am

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Where I am is:

boring

Overall

boring looks to be scumhunting - I get the impression she cares about working out who is scum and has put quite a bit of effort in. I don't think her play around either of the scum lynches looks like scum.

Day 1 - moderate scum read

- Elmo was a little scummy. It's so long ago I've pretty much forgotten why that was.
- The wagon on boring had loads of townies on it. If boring was town, I'd have expected scum to push this mislynch over the edge. DV's play on this wagon also fits with boring scum - jumping on to make it L-1 and then off the moment boring replaced in.

Day 2 - strong town read

- Her attacks on me felt really townish. That's because a) I just don't see that they had any value to scum given how both slots were read, and b) I know I wasn't playing that well; it's a read that makes sense.
- Her play on UC would be weird for scum. She was voting me while having UCV as the obvious backup - since I was never getting lynched, that was a great way to commit to lynching UC without picking up any credit.

Day 3 - no real read

This was the Transcend day. boring made the L-1 post; I'm fine with it.

Day 4 - moderate town read

- boring vs DV seems unlikely to be bussing. It's pretty clear DV aimed to get boring lynched. If he'd succeeded - which was a possibility - scum would have been in real trouble - DV was widely scumread. I suppose this *could* be "we're both weak, bus each other, whoever wins will be stronger". But I think it's much more likely scum would want to get kelbris lynched and get to LYLO.

Day 5 - not much read

I get a gut town read off the big effort of things like the meta on kelbris. But I think that's just a part of my gut that needs suppressing.

Prohawk

Overall

Prohawk's slot did nothing day 1, PH replaced in Day 2. Since then, PH has been fine; his opinions have made sense, and he looks like he's trying to catch scum, though he hasn't done masses. On results, his play makes sense as scum. He didn't interact much with either flipped scumbag, and never pushed for either of them to be lynched.

Day 1 - weak town read

- LUV did nothing.
- Viomi's stay was consumed by the drama with Transcend. I don't think there's much to be got out of that.
- Rem didn't do much, but reading back there's one thing that gives me townpings. here Rem asked boring to justify a townread on sheep, with the implication that Rem didn't agree with it. Arguing about that took up most of the rest of her stay. Now, sheep was scum. Questioning a townread on your buddy doesn't seem like typical scum play.

Day 2 - weak scum read

- Prohawk didn't express much of a read on either of the flipped scum Day 2. He ended up as the L-1 vote for UCV, but before that hadn't said anything much about either of them. This fits with scum not wanting to lynch a buddy but being forced to in the end.

Day 3 - no read

- No posts to speak of.

Day 4 - weak town read

Prohawk came out strong on Day 4, at a time when scum had a strong motivation to hang back and work out the lie of the land. DV was the more likely lynch for loads of the day, but Prohawk kept plugging away at kelbris without really pushing hard. It doesn't look like scum either trying hard for a mislynch OR trying to get towncred.

Day 5 - no read

This day was really dull. kelbris was obviously going to be lynched.

Tracker info

boring was tracked and didn't visit, on a night when I have no idea who would have performed the kill. That is really, really big. If there was no information in thread, that would make it a 2/3 chance that Prohawk was scum. With that track it would take a lot for me to vote boring here.

Conclusion

On his own, Prohawk is moderately townish. But boring is way more townish in the thread, and the tracker information is a big enough deal that it might outweigh everything else anyway. So, Prohawk is scum here.
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Post Post #1758 (isolation #90) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:58 am

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In post 1754, ProHawk wrote:No, I just believe that its easier to take a back-seat when scum especially late game when scum-hunting isn't as relevant since there isn't anything for you to figure out.
The bits of the game where I think I've "taken a back-seat" are the second half of Day 4 and Day 5. In both cases, I was sure I knew who I wanted lynched (DV then kelbris) and pretty sure they were going to end up being lynched. TBH, I think we wasted time on those days not doing very much to advance the game, and was a little bored.
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Post Post #1765 (isolation #91) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:07 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Prohawk: could you say more about why you think I'm scum over boring? What do you think about my reasons for low activity Day 3/4?
In post 1760, boring wrote:@Fishy - what's been town's biggest failure this game, in your opinion?
I think the biggest failures were three individual mistakes from Transcend, which contributed a lot to our not-so-great position going into Day 4:
1) Day 1 gambit which outed a PR - led to an unnecessary PR death
2) Day 2 quickhammer - led to a day 3 mislynch
3) Generally being a pain in his way of playing, in a way that doesn't provide much useful information. This contributed a lot to replacements and a messy day 1, which we've struggled to get much useful stuff out of.
In post 1764, ProHawk wrote:
In post 1757, Fishythefish wrote:On his own, Prohawk is moderately townish. But boring is way more townish in the thread, and the tracker information is a big enough deal that it might outweigh everything else anyway. So, Prohawk is scum here.
You know this is a tough position as scum right? Ideally you want both options open to not lock yourself into a 1v1 so early
I don't much like this question... it's getting me to answer "If I were scum...", which always looks bad. Why did you ask it?

But yeah, I'd agree that scum would rather be able to vote for either townie, since it's fairly unclear where this LYLO is going.
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Post Post #1766 (isolation #92) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:08 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1765, Fishythefish wrote:@Prohawk: could you say more about why you think I'm scum over boring? What do you think about my reasons for low activity Day 3/4?
For activity here read effort.
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Post Post #1768 (isolation #93) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:53 am

Post by Fishythefish »

^ I definitely agree that both alignments sometimes do both things (create a 1v1 vs remain on the fence). If I had to guess, I'd imagine scum tend to remain on the fence a tad more, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if I were wrong. Not sure any of this has much to do with this game, unless anyone is arguing my approach here is AI.
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Post Post #1771 (isolation #94) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:58 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@boring: I don't have any plans to do much more thinking for my own benefit - I've reread already, and barring extraordinary posts from one of you I'm settled in my decision. But I have time, so if there's any part of the game you'd like my thoughts on do shout.

@PH: there's an outstanding question for you at the top of 1765.
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Post Post #1773 (isolation #95) » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:10 am

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In post 1772, boring wrote:@Fishy - reviewing your Day 1, I was really lost on your progression on IceGuy. You started on him, seemed to forget him entirely, and then only returned when he was clearly the lynch. Do you remember enough from that day to fill in the gaps for me?
With some rereading to jog my memory, yes.
1) Early on, I saw something from IceGuy that was a decent scumtell for the RVS.
2) After that, I thought IceGuy's play was fine, and "a decent scumtell for the RVS" became a less important thing as other stuff happened.
3) I returned to avoid a no lynch (looks like only a few hours before deadline, with IG's wagon leading yours by 2 votes).
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Post Post #1777 (isolation #96) » Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:29 pm

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In post 1774, boring wrote:I've concluded that Ecto was killed because they thought he was a PR. I don't see any clear line from him to either identified scum or either of you. His sudden standoffishness must have spooked them.

By the way, can anyone explain the connection people were making D1 between my slot's alignment and those of Yuria and IceGuy? Players just seemed to go with it, but I don't see how those kinds of associations could be rational D1.

I know I'm dwelling on D1, but there was so much chaos that day. I think it might hold a lot of information.
For the Ecto kill - yeah, it doesn't look like one that helps us today. It could either have been PR hunting or just killing a contributing townie, but it doesn't look like his reads were super relevant.

What connection do you mean D1? I don't recall linking those alignments, or other people doing so?
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Post Post #1778 (isolation #97) » Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:30 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I'll have no access for around the next 36 hours, then can be as active as needed until the end.
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Post Post #1780 (isolation #98) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:00 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I imagine that was about how the wagons went? But I don't remember, so I'd just be rereading the same stuff as you to work it out.
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Post Post #1782 (isolation #99) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:03 am

Post by Fishythefish »

If boring is scum we've lost, and may as well get it over with.

VOTE: ProHawk
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #100) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:39 pm

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Glad to see I got it right :)

If you are planning to vote for me, I'd really like to hear why first so I can explain anything that needs explaining. I think I've played a pretty damn good game here, and I don't at all know why you think I'm more likely scum than Prohawk.

God, I hate posting at this stage of the game. Makes me feel like scum.
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Post Post #1795 (isolation #101) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:39 pm

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boring, I take my hat off to you. That's the best I've been caught in a long, long time. Your 1787 is epic level mafia play.
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Post Post #1796 (isolation #102) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:42 pm

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Many thanks to the mod. I like this setup, and it was impeccably run.

Replying to boring is a good way to give my thoughts on this game and my play in it.
In post 1787, boring wrote:There's the gut feeling that you're coasting in a game full of easy targets. Then there's the intensified feeling when I looked through your meta. You're a lot more assertive as town, and more easy going as scum.
My biggest regret in this game is an enforced period of low activity at the end of November. You started this scumread after that; I think if I'd kept up my day 1 level through day 2, things might have gone differently.

However, I think this is meta on me is accurate; it won't read me reliably, but it's much better than random. As town, I sort of have two games:
1) Doing OK - I produce sensible cases, but don't set the game alight, and it's a bit of an effort. My activity and/or motivation are often middling. I'm usually a moderate townread.
2) Owning the game - I feel immersed in the game; I really get the flow of it, push reads hard, and am involved in everything important. I say exactly what I think at all times, and it's obvious I'm doing that. I'm a universal townread.
My scum game is a pretty good emulation of my worse town game; I can't fake my better game.
In post 1787, boring wrote:I asked you what the biggest problem has been with town. Maybe we simply disagree, but I think blaming Transcend was simply a convenient answer, and one that you thought I wanted to hear. You could argue that ProHawk has given shitty answers today too, but I've noticed that impulsive town get pretty fuckity at the end.
As it happens, my answer on the problem with the town is entirely honest. I think Transcend made day 1 difficult, lost you a PR night 1, and made himself an obvious lynch day 3; otherwise scum would have really struggled.

I'm curious to know - what do you think the biggest problem was in the town?
In post 1787, boring wrote:Sheep and Deas were voting each other pretty much all of Day 1. They didn't seem to be too protective of each other other days (when it switched to UCV) either. If the third scum slot was as unstable as LUV/Viomi/REM/ProHawk, I don't see them taking that risk. I get that "every man for himself" cuts down on associations, but why not bus the crazy slot, then?

I think the scum actions, as they unfolded, makes the most sense when the team is confident that one of their members is going all the way. And, if, by chance, they were waaay more confident in ProHawk's slot than they should have been (no offence), why would ProHawk then risk openly defending Deas?
This is a very solid analysis.

---

I'm pretty annoyed with UCV, who in twilight told the town a string of true things after being lynched, in a way that was pretty blatantly honest and gave out significant information. One of those - that he was confident in winning - was brought up repeatedly in reasons people scumread me. I'm not saying it necessarily affected the outcome, but I don't think that is OK. It feels like it violates the old rules of "play to win" and "don't claim scum with someone".

---

I had a desperation post lined up, for if you declared intent to vote. I may as well post it:
Last gasp@boring: I've been thinking a little about how I would have played this game as scum.

I think scum!Fishy would have won this game by now. Look at day 2 in particular. There had barely been a vote on scum day 1. If scum had got a mislynch day 2, particularly without coming under much fire, town would have been in serious shit. In that circumstance, do you really think I'd go after both my partners, and push hard against a Transcend wagon? Bussing is not generally a tactic that gets you credit in proportion to how much it hurts your team. That's particularly true with a high-ish information game like this one - we could easily have got more information out of the tracker, making relying on one scumbag particularly dangerous.

One other little thing - if I was scum you'd have been a pretty good kill night 3. In the scum!Fishy theory, it's pretty clear that I was the one with the best chance of making LYLO, and that PRs would be eating nightkills. You cast the only vote I got between pages 2 and 72 - eliminating the only person who suspected me would have been tempting; particularly when that suspicion wasn't something that could be reasoned with.
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Post Post #1798 (isolation #103) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:52 pm

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Incidentally, I thought your day 1 gambit isn't obviously a bad one; it had a high payoff if it went well (although actually the scum wouldn't have shot you, because we guessed the gambit). I generally think those high-risk, high-reward plays are wrong, but it's very hard to know the chances of it working.
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Post Post #1803 (isolation #104) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:54 am

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We probably should have done. I rather thought Ecto was a PR at that point; and thought boring's scumread on me was *probably* only a blip.
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Post Post #1804 (isolation #105) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:54 am

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I also hadn't quite twigged that it was the last kill we actually got to choose, or would have worried more about people's reads.
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Post Post #1810 (isolation #106) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:15 am

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No objection from me.
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Post Post #1813 (isolation #107) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:03 am

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In post 1812, mutantdevle wrote:Damn, so my tracker/watcher confusion did contribute to fitz death. @fishy do you think you might have shot me instead had I not made such a mistake or was it always going to be fitz?
If you hadn't made that mistake, I very likely would have shot fitz anyway. Having the idea for hypoclaims made him more likely the tracker.

Your mistake did change one thing - it gave me the certainty to bus DV. If it had been closer to 50-50, we really couldn't afford to be down to one scum at that point.
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