Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Mathdino]

Asking for protection also serves the purpose of WIFOMing the shit out of the mafia because it makes the mafia straight up less likely to shoot you REGARDLESS of the existence or choice of the town protector.

[Impede]

For anyone interested, Binomial Theorem and probability shenanigans dictate that the chances for the mafia team are:

55.1%: Goon, Goon, JOAT
22.8%: Goon, JOAT, 1-shot Bus Driver
22.0%: Goon, 1-shot Bus Driver

How the f does the binomial theorem apply to this game?

[momo]

What I'm proposing is Mafia have a BUS DRIVER and very likely a JOAT (That is TT, T, or 0Ts), but that doesn't help much TODAY, so let's keep it for later.

As I mentioned earlier, I didn't know that only mafia could bus drive.

Either way, if I were scum and had a scum bus driver, don't you think I would ask in the scum pt at night instead of posting it in the thread. I am not stupid and scum would have to be seriously an idiot to make a post like that in thread.

Also, mathdino 475 Good reason for asking for protection as town there. My actions are selfish and maybe even ignorant, but def not scummy

[Almost50]

The hell? Why would you hardclaim now. Sigh.

Because everyone was too blind to see a CLEAR CRUMB in #44, maybe?

Now I don't know if you're Town or Scum anymore. EVERYONE is acting up like they're being deliberately scummy (maybe the setup had KKKK and we actually have TWO VENGEFUL roles??).

Since we're all playing like shit (me included) I'd also like to draw your attention my #138 cpuld be interpreted as a cumb for Hider.

NOT GOING TO CONFIRM OR DENY IT

, but that's when Una started pushing me, so I figured he wanted to lynch someone he may not be able to shoot. That is also why I initially said I know why momo TR'd me

based on a false assumption

, as I didn't (and still don't) wish to confirm or deny me being Hider/1-shot Commuter.

Let's all be stupid. That's just fine by me. Let the Tracker/Role Cop/Doctor/JK claim too (if any or even all exist). That's be fun.

[Mathdino]

So with Jay's claim we essentially have a version of a flip. I'm comfortable lynching with the assumption that Jay is town. His role is easily counterclaimable (

Vengefuls/Vigilantes should claim

now

so we can verify/direct everyone

) and verifiable, as opposed to something difficult to verify like JK and Tracker.

With the town flip and a wagon that nearly led to a lynch, we're VCAing for 2 kinds of players:

A. Scum that joined the wagon for shitty reasons (or thought he was SK, remember this is possibly multiball)
B. Scum that seemed to somehow know Jay was town and stayed OFF the wagon for shitty reasons.

I haven't done the VCA yet but that's my preamble.

Edit: @Impede: The setup is generated with 7 letters, each of which has a 50% chance of being a 'T'. Binomial theorem suggests that the probability distribution for the number of T's is 1:7:21:35:35:21:7:1 for 0 through 7 T's. I'm ruling out 7 T's because Jay's claim proves one letter is a K. So then I just calc'd the probabilities for the different numbers of T's that would result in different mafia team roles.

[Almost50]

3. The fact that you exist makes it more likely there's a Mafia JOAT who'll roleblock you. So if you get RB'd, and you're still alive, you'll get another chance to shoot on N2. If you haven't shot by then, we're obviously lynching you.

Not while I'm still alive. I'm not lynching a Vig who practically soft-claimed on page TWO!

[Mathdino]

Keep in mind vig is the correct safeclaim as an SK (I'm open to ways to check if he's actually SK), and there's no reason this couldn't have been premeditated in the mafia pregame.

I'm not suggesting we should act like it's a possibility, but if he hasn't shot twice in a row, that's basically proof of him being a liar.

[Almost50]

a50 can i have a tldr

tldr.

There you go.

But seriously, almost everyone in this game is bloody scummy beyond limits it wouldn't surprise me if they flipped scum (and by "they" I mean JUST ABOUT ANYONE BUT JAY)

[Mathdino]

Now I don't know if you're Town or Scum anymore. EVERYONE is acting up like they're being deliberately scummy (maybe the setup had KKKK and we actually have TWO VENGEFUL roles??).

Since we're all playing like shit (me included) I'd also like to draw your attention my #138 cpuld be interpreted as a cumb for Hider.

NOT GOING TO CONFIRM OR DENY IT

, but that's when Una started pushing me, so I figured he wanted to lynch someone he may not be able to shoot. That is also why I initially said I know why momo TR'd me

based on a false assumption

, as I didn't (and still don't) wish to confirm or deny me being Hider/1-shot Commuter.

Yeah I'll bite.

1. I didn't interpret Jay's breadcrumb as a breadcrumb, but that's also literally the point of breadcrumbs. Not a softclaim, but something you can point to later.

2. It's impossible for there to be two vengefuls, but you're smart enough to not get any towncred for that after we already went through how knowledge of the setup is some kind of slip.

3. I interpreted 138 as intentionally WIFOMing it up. That said, scum pushing a lynch on someone they think is a hider is extremely low-utility, as people would be fairly unwilling to lynch a hider claim.

Edit: @A50: Not everyone read the game you did. Even after you revealed all your threads, I still don't see it like you do. So calm yo ass and come up with a real reads list beyond "everyone's scummy".

[Mathdino]

If Una thought you were hider, wouldn't he just shoot the person you claim you're gonna hide behind, rather than try to solo a wagon on you?

[Impede]

Guys, I'm going to be really honest and say that while normally I love to do setup analysis, this is my first game in a setup this complex and I really have no idea where to even begin, so I'm going to probably excuse myself from setup-related discussions until I actually understand wtf is going on.

Math's post on VCA is superb though. Kinda obvious, but still our best play right now by far. I'll be a lot quieter probably for the rest of the night, but tomorrow I'll see if I can do some digging.

In other news, I think A50 is likely town.

[Almost50]

That leaves us with momo as a VT. Now why would a VT ask for protection??

'Cause at that moment I thought I had the game cracked open and scum would like to lynch a player like that....why would I ask for protection instead of a powerrole..call me selfish but I like to play and stay alive, enjoying this game and don't wanna die

That's probably honest, and is as .. erm.. naive as your play usually is. It is most anti-town though. You should always let the PRs do their own thing UNLESS there is a REAL NEED to draw their attention to something. *Sigh*

P.S. On a more personal note, I do NOT wish to hurt your feelings. I really think you're a nice person, so any harsh comments should only be perceived within the game context and only apply to this thread.

P-edit: Impossible my "back side". Check the wink page of the setup, under killing roles .. KKKK: Vengeful, Vengeful, Vigilante, Vigilante, unless you ALSO want to join the stupid party and claim something yourself.

[Almost50]

*WIKI page

[Mathdino]

I concede that point to your clearly superior knowledge of the wiki page. Skimmed and read KKKK as Vengeful + 3 Vigs.

A bunch of vote IIoA incoming followed by VCA.

[JaydragonKing]

Everyone took off running with the vigilante part of my flip, but none of us talked about the possible scum team. But I'll ignore my bias right now.

Actually, it would be nice if you all said your top 3 scum reads now, because that's going to influence my decision later on. Plus, it will make our more quiet ones actually have to participate. Bonus if you want to include your top 3 town reads/leans as well.

[Almost50]

Can you respond to my 438?

No. I have the right to act as scummy as anyone else, so that it's a fair competition.

[sheepsaysmeep]

yo
tr'ing a50

[momo]

First of all, UNVOTE:

Ughh, this claim has thrown a real wrench into my reads.

I hate to say it but A50s post against me was probably the towniest thing he could have done...someone who is looking like the town leader, leading a lynch, has all the town reads, and then he kills my momentum with a giant wall of scum reading.....the information was misinterpreted, but the intent....

Okay read pretty much everyone's iso and this is what I got, using the info that Jay is vig/sk (def not group scum)

Okay, red flavor remains a scum read

Creature's iso however has made him my number one scum read...24 posts, meaning that he is fairly active; however, he hasn't contributed anything to town. No solide votes, pushes, scum reads, evidence, analysis. Nothing! On top of that, he went and defended red. That's probably the most affirmative thing he has done so far. Defend redflavor. Clear link in between the two...

The last slot for my top 3 scum reads goes to Una...read her iso, 34 posts...it is remarkable lackluster, a few game related lines here and there, but there are so many long posts that are not related to the game....a lot of Una's attention is focused away from hunting scum...the best way to describe it is the passive actor...doesn't say much except for a line here and a line there when something really sticks out. Only real hunting done is the one "case" against A50 and it seems pretty contrived to me..

I am pretty confident in these read but after my slip up with jay, I can't be a hundred percent sure...There is also the factor of all the lurkers...hawk, sort of kop, assemblerotws, and fitz who has shown some promise as town but not played to back it up

For a townbloc I have me, mathdino, a50, and even Impede. He was the first to post his thoughts in support of my attempt to catch Jay but also the first to point out the flaws..But even when a50 made a strong towny post against me (which I maintain as false) he didn't do what scum would do an move with the changing tides. He quoted the post and picked it apart. That's what town would do. They would stay to what they believe.

Sorry all for the delay and the somewhat long post but I had to completely restructure my thoughts in the game. I'm not going to put out anything half-hearted, that I promise you.

[sheepsaysmeep]

creature does seem to be rather lurky

[Almost50]

If Una thought you were hider, wouldn't he just shoot the person you claim you're gonna hide behind, rather than try to solo a wagon on you?

What if that person is scum with Una? Would you let the hider die by targeting your Scum p or would you rather lynch him and "close the circle" with someone else? (Someone who would definitely NOT be a Hider bc -unlike the Vengeful- there can only be ONE Hider in this game).

[momo]

Oh quick follow up since I forgot to do so in 492 VOTE: Creature[/post]

sheep, I don't care if it's how you a normally play, I want posts from you that are more than a couple short lines

[momo]

ugh VOTE: Creature

What is happening to me

[sheepsaysmeep]

i am strongly against walls

[JaydragonKing]

Some people are also strongly against one sentence responses, Sheep. It's okay to make a paragraph or two of your thoughts at a time. It honestly helps you in more cases then not. As long as you don't go overboard or quote a literal wall of text, I don't see many getting mad at you.

[sheepsaysmeep]

kk
wall of reads later