Mini 1968: Bread uPick: The Baker's Dozen: Endgame

[jjh927]

Votecount 2.04

McMenno	L-2	drealmerz7, Gorkington, Firebringer, Dunkerdoodles
Dunkerdoodles	L-4	McMenno, Wormhole
drealmerz7	L-5	Whemestar
Gorkington	L-5	Fishythefish
Fishythefish	L-5	Smocaine
Not Voting	---	Chickadee

With 10 alive, it's 6 votes to lynch.

The lynch deadline is in (expired on 2018-01-14 23:00:00).

[Firebringer]

I had a dream I was killed by Chickadee in real life.
Chickadee came to where I live with a knife and stabbed me a bunch.

Chickadee I think u should apologize for dream!chickadee actions

[Dunkerdoodles]

how is motion detector a strong role?

it's best use is figuring out if someone has a visiting action or not
and even then other people can visit the person to screw with the results.
it's probably one of the weakest prs.

[Chickadee]

I had a dream I was killed by Chickadee in real life.
Chickadee came to where I live with a knife and stabbed me a bunch.

Chickadee I think u should apologize for dream!chickadee actions

I will do no such thing.

Honestly sounds a lot like me tbh.

[Gorkington]

chick why is fish scum?
and what do you make of mcmenno's misa read progression?

[Chickadee]

I feel like we have similar thoughts on fish right now.

As for Menno's read progression, it's ok to me. Doesn't scream town, but also doesn't scream super scum. I suppose it could look like he found a reason to get off the wagon and chose never to get back on.

[Gorkington]

can you lay out your thoughts on fish?
if youre voting him and you want him specifically lynched, you should probably be pushing specific reasoning to try to convince people to get him lynched, otherwise the game is just going to take its course.

for mcmenno, does it not bother you that he never mentions misa again, even when people are considering her as an alternative wagon?

[Wormhole]

@FishyTheFish, can you elaborate more on the differences you found between Drealmerz's scumgame and this game? The game you linked was the same one that I skimmed through. I initially thought Drealmerz was town because his frustration at the beginning of the game towards people townreading Creature seemed genuine but when I skimmed through his scumgame, he had a similarly, frustrated, annoyed tone at the beginning. This doesn't mean he's scum here but it does mean that my initial townread was wrong and that I should be reading him based on other things. I haven't yet figured out what I think of Drealmerz. I didn't like the way he claimed and expecting the claim to save him and then disappearing felt scummy. I also think tracker + JK is an unlikely combination of roles for town to have because both of them become stronger as the game goes on and scum are lynched. For instance, if we come down to the last scum remaining, we essentially have two cops. There's also some positive feedback in that if the town is winning, it becomes even more likely to win with roles like those (let me know if this doesn't make sense, I'm not sure if I'm phrasing this right). One of the problems we had about your posting was that you seemed very intent on getting Wheme to claim but not Drealmerz but your logic here makes some sense. But I'd like to hear more on Drealmerz and why this is different from his scumgame.

@Drealmerz, for someone who claims that we should be scumhunting, you aren't doing much of it at all. Your only major push this game was Creature after which you've been pretty okay with anyone dying and haven't had any strong opinions at all. Now you are throwing around the possibility of a Wheme policy lynch. Nothing you've done in this game felt like you were trying to solve it.

Me and skitter have both come around to second-guessing our Dunk read especially because there are other players he could attack than us and he just seemed to be really paranoid.

We haven't discussed Wheme's claim yet but personally I think if he's scum, he pulled it off really well and his behavior makes a lot of sense with the role he claims to have. Wheme's role is pretty odd though and it would mean that scum who fake-claim the roles that the mod gives them are more likely to do well. It would also suggest that the fake-claims they got are not necessarily abilities that they have. For example, if Drealmerz is a scum tracker, then he would most likely get a town tracker fakeclaim. Wheme would get a result that he's a town tracker and Drealmerz would have real results to give.

@FishytheFish

, what do you think of this: Wheme's role being town doesn't really seem compatible with scum having town-like roles like tracker. From that perspective, it might actually be a good idea to get Drealmerz to claim his results - although this is true only if Wheme is town. Overall, my guess at this point is that both Wheme and Dunker are more likely town than not.

Upon re-read, I didn't like Fishythefish's Gorkinton case as much as my partner did. I think some of it felt like shoehorning Misa's behavior to fit into Gork being scum whereas a lot of it also makes sense from the perspective of Misa-scum, Gork-town. But we need to look into this more so elaboration will come tomorrow or tonight.

@Smocaine, your posts continue to feel like you have a completely different approach to mafia than I do. Ectomancer's 622 was a good point, not "pointless shade." Wheme's post saying "let's just kill someone" was a rather terrible post and people making such posts as town shouldn't really be playing the game. I like that Ectomancer pushed him on that point.

Finally, just want to acknowledge that I noticed the McMenno push and case. I'll think about this at work and post more later but I've found McMenno's playstyle somewhat random and incoherent so I don't know how much stock to place into his abandoned MisaTange push. I'm looking into the Dreal, Gork, Fish, McMenno, Smocaine group as the ones I have the least role-based reasons to think are town so I'll try to sort through that in a bit.

-BV

[Chickadee]

can you lay out your thoughts on fish?
if youre voting him and you want him specifically lynched, you should probably be pushing specific reasoning to try to convince people to get him lynched, otherwise the game is just going to take its course.

for mcmenno, does it not bother you that he never mentions misa again, even when people are considering her as an alternative wagon?

I'm actually not voting fish at the moment. I was voting Dunk, and unvoted. I'm currently not voting. But sure, I'll lay out my thoughts on Fish, but I won't really have time to do it until late tomorrow or even Monday.

I'm headed out the door in the next half hour and tomorrow I work all day. If I have enough energy left when I get home tonight, I might be able to do it then.

[Fishythefish]

(I'm multiposting to respond to different threads. If you prefer a single post, shout.)

On whether scum play like this: I think most don't; I certainly don't. But I think it's a scum reflex to care about your partners, and that newer/less thoughtful/worse scum might have well focus on a buddy. It would be a quite a coincidence if Misa's focus on you was just random; and I think it's very unlikely it's deliberate to set up this line.

and why exactly is it not coincidence? like, seriously lets run through all of these interactions and you tell me how it doesnt just read like her commenting on the soup de jour?

Because it would be a very unlikely coincidence. Yes, these all look like Misa commenting on the soup de jour. But there were lots of other soups that Misa left alone. I think her play betrays the fact that she was thinking hard about you.

Agree that Wheme and McMenno are lynchbait-y and easy pushes if town. I have serious trouble sorting that sort of player; in a game where I have quite a lot of townreads, they are going to end up in a PoE scum pile, but it's not a pile I'm happy with.

are you going to address the posts i pulled about mcenno? because just ignoring them, saying mcmenno is lynchbait and reiterating that im scum is going to make me feel a lot more comfortable thinking youre both scum.

This was me responding to something specific from s-Wormhole, who had criticised my scumreads other than you as kind of easy because of the types of players you were on. Wormhole said "Like I understand why they're scumreads, but I also feel like if they're town, they're kidna lynchbait-y and are easy pushes.". I think that's fair given the sort of players McMenno and Wheme are (relatively low content, hard to read); it's not a comment on how they are read.

I haven't actually thought about the recent McMenno stuff at all yet - I'll do so this morning.

Why is 659 scum? And why is this the first time you've talked about it?

its an appallingly bad assessment of smocaine's post. you have to not read smocaine's post entirely to not understand why he posted the votecount, which suggests that ecto wasnt reading or trying to understand anything and was just trying to push something that he thought would look convincing.
i responded to it initially thinking it was shitty. i just reread the game, (which you should know, given that i have been promising a reread/i just made catch-up posts that youve conveniently chosen to not really read at all) and i saw the post again.

I agree it's an appallingly bad assessment of smocaine's post. But where on earth is the scum motivation for it? Weird-and-wrong != scummy.

I totally missed your initial response to 659 - sorry.

[Fishythefish]

A confession: I'd misunderstood Dunker's role until he asked me how it was powerful. I thought it detected who went in or out, rather than just motion. So I think his reason for softing strong PR to draw the NK makes sense.

[Fishythefish]

Last post catching up with things. Quite a lot has happened recently, and I need to do a proper review of my reads (particularly Gork, dunkers, McMenno); that'll be in the next few hours.

@FishyTheFish, can you elaborate more on the differences you found between Drealmerz's scumgame and this game? The game you linked was the same one that I skimmed through. I initially thought Drealmerz was town because his frustration at the beginning of the game towards people townreading Creature seemed genuine but when I skimmed through his scumgame, he had a similarly, frustrated, annoyed tone at the beginning. This doesn't mean he's scum here but it does mean that my initial townread was wrong and that I should be reading him based on other things.

Sure. In PYP, he took much more of a back seat than that; for most of the game I thought he was town with good thoughts who wasn't confident enough to voice them in the thread (we had a hood where he played me like a violin). I don't see any of that here; his early play particularly was really aggressive - both in going after people hard, and in the way he posted. That's dropped off a bit, but he still feels much more assertive here than he did there.

I haven't yet figured out what I think of Drealmerz. I didn't like the way he claimed and expecting the claim to save him and then disappearing felt scummy. I also think tracker + JK is an unlikely combination of roles for town to have because both of them become stronger as the game goes on and scum are lynched. For instance, if we come down to the last scum remaining, we essentially have two cops. There's also some positive feedback in that if the town is winning, it becomes even more likely to win with roles like those (let me know if this doesn't make sense, I'm not sure if I'm phrasing this right).

Interesting point about tracker+JK, and it totally makes sense; but I wouldn't have thought most mods would think about that sort of subtlety? But I may be wrong on that.

One of the problems we had about your posting was that you seemed very intent on getting Wheme to claim but not Drealmerz but your logic here makes some sense. But I'd like to hear more on Drealmerz and why this is different from his scumgame.

I think there was a very strong reason for Wheme to claim - it looked like a fakeclaim, and was therefore likely to be fake or weird. It has ended up being weird, and one that needs more thought - so in hindsight I also think it was the right decision. I see no strong reason for dreal to claim, so I don't think those are comparable at all.

We haven't discussed Wheme's claim yet but personally I think if he's scum, he pulled it off really well and his behavior makes a lot of sense with the role he claims to have. Wheme's role is pretty odd though and it would mean that scum who fake-claim the roles that the mod gives them are more likely to do well. It would also suggest that the fake-claims they got are not necessarily abilities that they have.

For example, if Drealmerz is a scum tracker, then he would most likely get a town tracker fakeclaim. Wheme would get a result that he's a town tracker and Drealmerz would have real results to give. @FishytheFish, what do you think of this: Wheme's role being town doesn't really seem compatible with scum having town-like roles like tracker.

From that perspective, it might actually be a good idea to get Drealmerz to claim his results - although this is true only if Wheme is town. Overall, my guess at this point is that both Wheme and Dunker are more likely town than not.

Yeah, I agree on Wheme being likely town here. It would be an impressive role to make up (with the fakeclaims bit). But I don't think I understand the bolded - it seems to contradict itself? Isn't it consistent to have Wheme's role with a scum tracker whose fakeclaim is town tracker?

[Fishythefish]

So, where my reads are right now:
{Wormhole, Chickadee, Firebringer} - town
{Wheme, dreal, Smocaine} - weak town
{Gork, Dunker, McMenno} - scum pool

The main changes to that since my initial reread are:
- Wheme up to probtown for role reasons.
- I'm no longer anywhere near as confident as I was in my Gork read. His response has been pretty good - some points in my case I don't think are scummy any more, and he's feeling town in how he's approaching things right now. In particular, I feel like he's genuinely trying to work out what alignment I am in this argument. I still think he may well be a competent scum player who was exposed by a less skillful buddy.

@Firebringer:

please could you answer the question halfway down this post about Gork's meta?

My dunker read is kind of complicated. I think the relevant things are:
- Possible slip in post 584 - moderately scummy
- Softclaiming - mildly scummy. dunk's explanation of drawing the NK is possible, but "scum avoiding the NK" is more likely
- Thinking his claim would get him lots of towncred - mildly townish
- Fenraiser's play - scummy
- Claim backed up by Wheme - I don't actually think this says much about dunk's alignment. But I'm waiting on Wheme to answer a question on that.
Overall, I think dunkers is a good shout for scum.

I'd like to hear what McMenno has to say about Gork's 1018. An early push against Misa, then completely ignoring her for the rest of the day, is a pretty good fit for a partner.

@McMenno

- you said early on that you would "keep an eye" on Misa. How did you read on her change during the day?

So to summarise, where I am is:
- If Wheme's role doesn't clear dunkers, I think he's the most likely scum.
- Otherwise, I'd be torn between Gork and McMenno.

VOTE: dunkers

[Gorkington]

i guess i should probably think harder about the possibility of scumDunk having scum-motion detector as a role with a town scum-motion detector fakeclaim.

for some reason i was thinking that him having the role would confirm him as town, but probably wasnt thinking hard enough about that.

I agree it's an appallingly bad assessment of smocaine's post. But where on earth is the scum motivation for it? Weird-and-wrong != scummy.

scum dont have the same incentive that town does to try and actually understand whether someone/something is scummy or not.
ecto basically had to not read the post, just see that smocaine posted an old votecount without trying to understand the context at all and then case him/vote him. its really the casing that makes me feel uncomfortable. if he had just asked him why he had done that, then thats potentially just a misunderstanding that he wants to clarify, but instead it just comes across as trying to generate busy content/push a mislynch.

[Gorkington]

fish can you link your most recent scumgame?

[Fishythefish]

Pick Your Poison. A tragic LYLO loss.

[Smocaine]

Yeah, so calling it "the Ectomancer slot" and quoting two posts only from Ecto when I've now produced the majority of the slot's content is ridiculous. It feels like I've replaced in to your designated mislynch and you want to ignore that.
1) Ecto's first post you quote is not shade. It's a reasonable question.
2) Ecto's second post is weird, sure. Why would scum post it? If you don't have an answer, it's a weirdtell, not a scumtell.
3) What about my play?

I quoted 2/3rds of the man's iso. If I had a 'designated mislynch' it would be Dreal given my set up.
1) The question paints Wheme in a scummy light regardless of his answer, and Ecto didn't press Wheme for an answer to it despite him ignoring it.

ITT I overpromise and underdeliver.

Let's try a different strategy! Read nothing! Vote everything!

WhemeStar talk to me about why you arrived at the point where you feel that saying "Let's just kill someone"

was an advisable post

?

1.5) The phrasing here looks like someone approaching the game from a scum mindset.
2) Scum that was struggling to produce content saw an opportunity to 'jump' on something? It's also off that he goes from saying "vote everyone" in 622 to making a large post to only fos me. His play is too cautious for my liking.
3) I honestly haven't focused most of your content, but it didn't scream town outside of the volume of words in your posts. Would you say that's outside of your scumrange?

[Fishythefish]

I agree it's an appallingly bad assessment of smocaine's post. But where on earth is the scum motivation for it? Weird-and-wrong != scummy.

scum dont have the same incentive that town does to try and actually understand whether someone/something is scummy or not.
ecto basically had to not read the post, just see that smocaine posted an old votecount without trying to understand the context at all and then case him/vote him. its really the casing that makes me feel uncomfortable. if he had just asked him why he had done that, then thats potentially just a misunderstanding that he wants to clarify, but instead it just comes across as trying to generate busy content/push a mislynch.

Scum have a serious incentive to look like they are scumhunting, so they generally pick at things they think are genuinely scummy. So I don't think really weird reasons for reads are a good scumtell. If you disagree, there's probably little more to be said on this one, since I'm not Ecto and can't speak to his reasons here.

[Smocaine]

VOTE: Fishy Dreal is sus and the fact that no one wants to lynch him despite being everyone's secondary pick last phase is also sus. It's not happening, so I'm cool to lynch the Ectomancer slot.

dreal kind of seems better with the context that he was trying to underplay because of his role to stay alive. his play today has been closer to what ive expected from town him, especially the firebringer vote.
can you talk to me about mcmenno and the posts i pulled?

Mcmenno is a tough read. I doubt McMenno expects to spearhead a lynch on someone not being wagoned and iirc Mistange flew under the radar the second half of the day. I think those posts could go either way.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, so calling it "the Ectomancer slot" and quoting two posts only from Ecto when I've now produced the majority of the slot's content is ridiculous. It feels like I've replaced in to your designated mislynch and you want to ignore that.
1) Ecto's first post you quote is not shade. It's a reasonable question.
2) Ecto's second post is weird, sure. Why would scum post it? If you don't have an answer, it's a weirdtell, not a scumtell.
3) What about my play?

I quoted 2/3rds of the man's iso. If I had a 'designated mislynch' it would be Dreal given my set up.
1) The question paints Wheme in a scummy light regardless of his answer, and Ecto didn't press Wheme for an answer to it despite him ignoring it.

ITT I overpromise and underdeliver.

Let's try a different strategy! Read nothing! Vote everything!

WhemeStar talk to me about why you arrived at the point where you feel that saying "Let's just kill someone"

was an advisable post

?

1.5) The phrasing here looks like someone approaching the game from a scum mindset.
2) Scum that was struggling to produce content saw an opportunity to 'jump' on something? It's also off that he goes from saying "vote everyone" in 622 to making a large post to only fos me. His play is too cautious for my liking.
3) I honestly haven't focused most of your content, but it didn't scream town outside of the volume of words in your posts. Would you say that's outside of your scumrange?

1) I think that's actually quite a good question to Wheme; it's asking why Wheme doesn't care who the lynch is. Not following up on it is clearly NAI for someone who flaked from the game!
1.5) Fair enough. I don't see it, but nothing to say here.
2) See post above.
3) Volume of posting is pretty NAI for me. Certainly after replacing in I'm going to be pretty damn active while settling in.

[Smocaine]

"Putting false pressure on the town" sounds like something genuinely scummy. Also, ehhh

[Smocaine]

Do you think dreal is town fishy?

[Fishythefish]

Yes - not a super strong read, but he doesn't look like he did when I played with him as scum, and going after the guy who shot scum with a crazy PGO theory would be an unlikely scum move.

[Dunkerdoodles]

A confession: I'd misunderstood Dunker's role until he asked me how it was powerful. I thought it detected who went in or out, rather than just motion. So I think his reason for softing strong PR to draw the NK makes sense.[/b]

So, where my reads are right now:
{Wormhole, Chickadee, Firebringer} - town
{Wheme, dreal, Smocaine} - weak town
{Gork, Dunker, McMenno} - scum pool

The main changes to that since my initial reread are:
- Wheme up to probtown for role reasons.
- I'm no longer anywhere near as confident as I was in my Gork read. His response has been pretty good - some points in my case I don't think are scummy any more, and he's feeling town in how he's approaching things right now. In particular, I feel like he's genuinely trying to work out what alignment I am in this argument. I still think he may well be a competent scum player who was exposed by a less skillful buddy.

@Firebringer:

please could you answer the question halfway down this post about Gork's meta?

My dunker read is kind of complicated. I think the relevant things are:
- Possible slip in post 584 - moderately scummy

- Softclaiming - mildly scummy. dunk's explanation of drawing the NK is possible, but "scum avoiding the NK" is more likely

- Thinking his claim would get him lots of towncred - mildly townish
- Fenraiser's play - scummy
- Claim backed up by Wheme - I don't actually think this says much about dunk's alignment. But I'm waiting on Wheme to answer a question on that.
Overall, I think dunkers is a good shout for scum.

I'd like to hear what McMenno has to say about Gork's 1018. An early push against Misa, then completely ignoring her for the rest of the day, is a pretty good fit for a partner.

@McMenno

- you said early on that you would "keep an eye" on Misa. How did you read on her change during the day?

So to summarise, where I am is:

- If Wheme's role doesn't clear dunkers, I think he's the most likely scum.

- Otherwise, I'd be torn between Gork and McMenno.

VOTE: dunkers

1. why the contradiction?
2. how does "scum avoiding the nk" make sense?
3. why are you voting a rolecop-cleared person
4. why would wheme claim rolecop to defend me if he was scum?

basically there are 4 scenarios
1. me and wheme are scum pulling an awesome gambit - i wish but no
2. wheme is scum whiteknighting me - also unlikely, scum!wheme would probably just let me die
3. wheme is telling the truth and i am scum motion detector - possible, but scum motion detector is a really weak role and doesn't exist.
4. me and wheme are both town - only logical explanation.

[Fishythefish]

1) What contradiction?
2) Typo - should have been "scum avoiding getting lynched".
3) See below.
4) He probably wouldn't. That's not what I think is happening.

Of your four scenarios - I think 3 and 4 are totally possible. Why can't a motion detector be scum? It's like a weak PR detector - not a strong role, but not implausible at all.