Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[sheepsaysmeep]

pagetop

[sheepsaysmeep]

I'm still going through, but I noticed you town read Cy in 159. What changed this?

i forgot where i got the townread

[Sky_Paladin]

You RVS voted Cy, and then you town read him. Sometime later, Tora votes for Cy and quotes 'sheeping sheep' as the basis for the vote. I would have expected you to respond to a wagon suddenly forming on your (apparently) only townread at that point. I also would have expected Tora to address this as people should be accountable for their votes, yes?

However, the one thing that Tora deemed noteworthy enough to do anything about was defend Dino, a slot that he shouldn't care about since he's not lovers with Dino. Right?

Looking through the earlier interactions, it appears Dino proposes the random-kingmaker methodology, and poses a heap of math that supposedly proves it's a good strat (but it's not). That slot has then handed the decision of who to 'randomly' lynch off to you, but you're pushing a slot you had town read earlier.

So the cynic in me thinks that this looks a lot like Tora/Sheep/Dino/Tange are the scum team just trying to bully town into an easy win. But probably I am wrong, so I'm interested in your thoughts on those interactions.

[Sky_Paladin]

I just noticed in 256 Dino claims that he is sheeping you because he is your lover. Thoughts.

[sheepsaysmeep]

random vote is correct
rvs is wrong
i personally dont recall ever having a strong town feeling from cy, and if i reranded to every somewhat towny post we wouldnt actually be following the strategy

[Mathdino]

Hey Dino, can you run your program again with the following parameters:

A - On day 1, if scum is killed, you don't roll again. Justification: Eliminate impossible scenario's from the decision matrix.

B - On day 1, if we sheep a scum player, odds of town win. Kingmaker scenario gone bad.

C - On day 1, if we sheep a town player, odds of town win. Kingmaker best case scenario.

By my math we're looking at around a 54.45 chance of a scum victory in A, a 72% chance of a scum victory in B, and a straight 50% chance of town/scum winning in C.

Random only
Kingmaker

A. That's already taken into account. If scum is killed either day, town wins. Like, if we killed scum D1, we could lynch whoever we wanted (if game continued) D2 and we'd still have won. If you want me to add in something, I'll do it (it wouldn't be hard), but I guarantee you it's mathematically equivalent.

B. Exactly 40%

C. Exactly 70%

I've done the math on both of these previously. Since Kingmaker is more likely (2/3 likely) to pick a townie, it's weighted 2:1 toward Scenario C. That means the totally random Kingmaker with a totally random roll comes out to 60%.

I don't know where you got those numbers tbh.

Let me know if you'd rather me explain my theoretical calculations, or actually recode the setup and demonstrate.

[Sky_Paladin]

And now I've caught up. Actually there's not a whole lot, far less than any other game I've ever played - I think the speculation on dice rolling pretty much killed interactions and is the strongest anti-town element in the game.

So if you are indeed scum, Dino, good job on that.

Spoiler:

Dino warns of difficult VCA in 7.
Dino proposes kingmaker with 70% chance of win 11 which seems objectively false ^_~
RedFlavor favors dice lynch 23 but partner manrock against it.
Tora/Dino mutal townclears on page 2, flirt at both being scum teams (which at this point seems highly likely)
Sheep against random strat in 38
Cy is against dice roll in 54 but strangely quotes sheep instead of Dino et al that are more appropriate complainants.
Early day interactions between Sheep/Dino look legit but never revisited
Sheep posts list of pairs in 83

tor and sheep
mathdina and amrochora
redflavor and manrock
cy and lalendra
diamon and sky
kop and bigfin

Updated with replacements:

tor and sheep
mathdina and MisaTange
redflavor and manrock
cy and lalendra
diamon and sky
kop and momo

NB Kop and Momo never claimed their partner; it was deduced by Sheep by POE. Kop showed up to confirm in 136.

101. Diamond: I'm sexually attracted to Sky. [jk, you still paying attention?

I never knew you felt that way <3
Tora votes Cy in 190
Tange replaces in and immediately votes Cy 235.
Momo gives up way too easily in 321 considering he just replaced in.
Dino asks for Sky to repeat the lovers qt
Both of us had already provided a summary and it would be difficult to go into further detail without reaching modkill territory.

Overall, I think the main incriminating reads/interactions are Dino/Sheep/Tora/Tanga. I'm prepared to accept Dino misclaiming Sheep as his lover could be me misunderstanding the context but...feels bad man.

I'm concerned that the way the Kingmaker was 'supposed' to happen was a random dice roll by a generally towny-read player, the way it's eventuated thus far is the scummy four have picked within their group and no dice roll took place, and Sheep has backed away from her townread on her vote target for no specific reason.

I also feel like I've read somewhere that making truly proven random dice rolls is grounds for a modkill but I can't seem to find it on recollection.

I'm scum reading these slots:
Math Dino – MisaTange
Toranaga – Sheepsaymeep

I think Cy - Lalendra are probably town; although their content has diminished during the day phase and Lalendra just giving up does concern me. I'm not super against a lynch on this slot except it's being pushed by the four people I think are scum.
I'm on the fence for Momo/Kop. The slot has done nothing but is likely confirmed town due to the qt timestamp sharing issue.
I feel that RedFlavor/Manrock slot is town.

I encourage town to actually go back and read the game - it doesn't take long at all and there is enough content there to quickly come to opinions about slots.

[Sky_Paladin]

I don't know where you got those numbers tbh.

Let me know if you'd rather me explain my theoretical calculations, or actually recode the setup and demonstrate.

I looked up how to calculate probabilities and manually plugged the matrix in. There are images in my post that show where the figures come from.

I would like you to code it up yourself or just show the psuedocode and I'll implement it myself and share the code.

[momo]

u r right sky....red's entire iso is setup spec to appear towny and a random vote on cy that says let's go...indicating that he is scum going for a push...i'll bite

VOTE: RedFlavor

[Mathdino]

I've read everything that's been said, but any response I have needs a lot of time dedicated to it. So I'll get to this soon.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

cytheflyguy (4) - MisaTange, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga
Mathdino (2) - Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel
momo (2) - sheepsaysmeep, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - cytheflyguy
RedFlavor (1) - momo

Not Voting (2) - Kop, manrock

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

manrock has failed to pick up their prod and will be replaced
MisaTange has requested replacement

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)

[Sky_Paladin]

cytheflyguy (5) - MisaTange, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga, momo

@mod - Tally is incorrect; Momo changed their vote immediately prior.

While that may be entirely true, I don't think I alluded to anything of that in my post?

u r right sky....red's entire iso is setup spec to appear towny and a random vote on cy that says let's go...indicating that he is scum going for a push...i'll bite

@Dino

I've read everything that's been said, but any response I have needs a lot of time dedicated to it. So I'll get to this soon.

There is no rush. I'll also try to compile something myself when I get a chance. I'm looking forward to seeing what the replacements have to say about the game state when they arrive.

[LlamaFluff]

Previous vote count has been modified due to error

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm actually curious as to why I've townread Red now and went back on the iso - I think I'm putting too much stock into 'There is no reason for scum to roll a dice, they could just say lynch A and lynch B who are actually town members'.
A quick ISO on red/manrock shows they basically don't exist (hence the replacement) so I'm shuffling them up to the scummy side of the list. The vote that Momo highlighted and incorrectly attributed to me is highly suspect. I think this is probably a better random lynch target than Cy, who I think is probably town.

@Dino

Hypothetically, what do you think of a scenario where we do elect a kingmaker, and if they guess wrong, we lynch the king the following day? Please tell me why this is a terrible idea.

[Mathdino]

Hypothetically, what do you think of a scenario where we do elect a kingmaker, and if they guess wrong, we lynch the king the following day? Please tell me why this is a terrible idea.

Horrible. This only works if we elect a kingmaker completely randomly AND unanimously agree to follow the kingmaker, which will clearly not happen.

Possible scenarios:

1. We elect a scum kingmaker. Either:
A. We follow the strategy and win.
B. Scum convinces us to not actually lynch the kingmaker tomorrow somehow. We lose (low likelihood but possible).

2. We elect a town kingmaker.

D1. Either:
A. Kingmaker picks right and we win.
B. Scum manipulates kingmaker into picking wrong and it goes to D2. Upon which we likely lynch the kingmaker and lose.

The B scenarios read more likely to me than A scenarios. tl;dr I'm unsatisfied with the lack of arbitrariness.

[Mathdino]

Sky, while you're here, can you to a tl;dr of each post in your scumtopic? It would certainly reduce paranoia in you.

It's kinda null tbh since momo was already maybe "caught" because of it so you're not gonna scumslip. But everyone else did, sooooo

[Sky_Paladin]

Sure thing.
1 - First post from the moderator saying who the topic is for.
2 - Diamond - Who are you/this'll be fun.
3 - Sky - Hello, good luck, have fun
4 - Diamond notices that our join dates are nearly exactly one year apart.
5 - I say that's strange then ask Diamond if they know anything about the setup because I signed without reading somehow.
6 - I then post the setup because I found it.
7 - I ask if we should crumb or not and say I have no idea wtf to do.
8 - Diamond says it's nightless, and speculates everybody will revealing there partners on day 1. Asked me not to reveal unless the trend seems to be going that way. Says that they'll just wing it and hope we win day 1.
9 - Mod locks topic.

[Sky_Paladin]

TBH I would really like it if the players who were not my chief scumreads were actually in here and posting so I could interact with them. I'm not going to be able to convince Dino that sheep is scum and vice versa, and I'd love to have other players chime in their thoughts so if I'm on the wrong track I can refocus.

[Sky_Paladin]

That said - Dino - what are your thoughts re: Sheep and my interaction over the last few pages? I personally feel unsatisfied.

[Mathdino]

That said - Dino - what are your thoughts re: Sheep and my interaction over the last few pages? I personally feel unsatisfied.

I mean I wish I could tell you I cared so you'd get off my ass

buuuuut I don't.

My townread on sheep came first, and I believe early reads hold more weight than later reads until flips happen.

So you might be scum and that might all be theatrics to break up my townbloc, which is your 100% ideal strategy as scum, and is potentially what I'd do in your situation.

But understand that in my situation, it's a very bad idea for me to reconsider my townreads based on interaction with people who I'm not townreading.

If you want to point to anything in particular, go ahead and I'll comment. I'm just not willing to do it when it's potentially a "you convince me of an idea and convince me it was my idea all along" salesman trick.

[Lalendra]

Lalendra just giving up does concern me.

I get grumpy when I feel like what I say doesn't matter. I am happy to engage if anyone has any questions or anything, there's just no defense for "please don't arbitrarily lynch me", since there's no logic behind it to argue against. I can say "don't lynch me, I'm town," but that's NAI as it's what anyone would say in this situation, so.

[Mathdino]

Huh I feel like shit about this but I actually kind of believe that lover PT.

I was honestly hoping your slot wasn't town, because town can't get majority without bussing or at least one person from every pair on board. So it would've been nice to just lynch your slot because everyone else would come together on it.

But now I'm slightly townreading you, which is making me mad uncomfortable.

Going through the pairs:
sheep/Tora: town because great reasons
cy/Lalendra: I mean let's be honest this is probably scum at this point cuz scum should've pushed this lynch through by now
Kop/momo: The only thing to read them on is the "slip" and even that could just be bullshit.
Red/manrock: Absolutely nothing to read except for a few things that maybe feel town early on. Currently voting cy/Lalendra so probably not scum with them? Or purposefully bussing? Does anything mean anything in this game? Probably not?

[Mathdino]

I get grumpy when I feel like what I say doesn't matter. I am happy to engage if anyone has any questions or anything, there's just no defense for "please don't arbitrarily lynch me", since there's no logic behind it to argue against. I can say "don't lynch me, I'm town," but that's NAI as it's what anyone would say in this situation, so.

Hey I mean you were doing pretty well when you argued that we should just arbitrarily lynch someone else

[Lalendra]

Hey I mean you were doing pretty well when you argued that we should just arbitrarily lynch someone else

I'm just bummed because I was really excited for this game and now I feel like I'm going to get lynched D1 through no fault of my own.

[Mathdino]

Hey I mean you were doing pretty well when you argued that we should just arbitrarily lynch someone else

I'm just bummed because I was really excited for this game and now I feel like I'm going to get lynched D1 through no fault of my own.

I don't know how good I can be at pep talking you since I'm obviously the cause of all this, and I'm sorry you're bummed regardless of your alignment. It's a sucky position to be in and I can understand how me playing to win can suck the enjoyment out of your game.

But here's what I was thinking: If we arbitrarily vote on D2 based on sheeping someone we think is town (Sheep/Tora) we do in fact run the risk of just having Sheep/Tora be scum.

If you and cy flip, you're certainly town, which means you're completely unbiased.

I believe that everyone's reads are basically arbitrary because scumhunting is hard in this setup.

But if you don't believe that, you can always push for someone to be lynched on D2. Gives you something to do