Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[sheepsaysmeep]

pagetop i think

[Mathdino]

Another problem with this setup is that for any townie that actually wants to scumhunt (cough not me), it's actually more beneficial to sit back and see what everyone else does without your intervention.

Which incentivises lurking and not voting.

Hope I get a cool replacement.

[Mathdino]

I just noticed in 256 Dino claims that he is sheeping you because he is your lover. Thoughts.

Oh yeah I forgot about this.

2. I thought it was obvious that I wanted to restrict that conversation to me and my lover because I don't want her to be influenced. Now that's unavoidable. You knew this.

sheep on the other hand literally did not notice that I was lovers with that particular replacement

. I give that a free pass. He didn't actually influence anything because he didn't know wtf he was talking about.

3. She's my lover, of course I'm going to ask her to vote with me.

If there's one positive point to sheep's play (which isn't great) it's that he's actually paying attention to my strategy

. I don't know wtf to do and I fundamentally believe towns IN GENERAL don't know wtf to do in this setup, even if they think they do.

I'm having trouble telling what you're referring to. I cut out the parts that I'm pretty sure you're not referring to and underlined the parts you might be.

You know sheep is a guy right? And I was saying that I'm lovers with Misa, and sheep literally didn't realise I was lovers with her?

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm just bummed because I was really excited for this game and now I feel like I'm going to get lynched D1 through no fault of my own.

I feel this is blatantly untrue because I super hate appeals to emotion and, even though it's totes your birthday, my knee-jerk reaction to ATE is to lynch it off the face of the earth. So if you get lynched it's probably because you didn't do enough to avoid it.

You are at, what, L-2? Four players voting for you? Probably scum is already on that wagon or you are scum. I would be looking at lovers that are voting separately - see Sheep (voting Momo) and Toro (voting you). It's not even like half the players actually agree on the dice roll strat - you could do plenty to not get lynched in this situation. So one of these is true:
1 - You are scum and scum are fighting to get a lynch elsewhere. Not really any real wagons that I can see - I'm the only one truly pushing any other wagon, I think.
2 - You are town and scum are making some effort to lynch you. Plausible, but the lack of existence of any real counterwagon makes me think c;
3 - You are town and scum aren't making any effort to lynch you because a whole bunch of town are doing it themselves.

2 and 3 are the main reasons I think Cy is probably town. I feel if we had scum at L-2 there would be a lot more posts from outraged players, eh?

[Sky_Paladin]

Dino

You know sheep is a guy right?

I didn't realise - I thought sheep was female. I did think I might have the context incorrect which is why I wasn't screaming SCUMSLIP but Sheep's total lack of response made me wonder.

[Mathdino]

2 and 3 are the main reasons I think Cy is probably town. I feel if we had scum at L-2 there would be a lot more posts from outraged players, eh?

Sorry to butt in and ruin all the fun, but in line with my "scumhunting is scummy and completely ineffective" beliefs:

Correct play for scum with cy/Lalendra is to NOT post a ton of outrage to make it look like there's no one defending them, in the hopes that town will whip up a lynch on someone else.

[Mathdino]

3 - You are town and scum aren't making any effort to lynch you because a whole bunch of town are doing it themselves.

Based on the votecount, this is impossible. The only pair that hasn't had someone at some point vote for cytheflyguy is you/Diamond. And maybe momo/Kop but I don't remember.

[Mathdino]

2 and 3 are the main reasons I think Cy is probably town. I feel if we had scum at L-2 there would be a lot more posts from outraged players, eh?

Wait on second thought, you understand that the fact that you/Diamond have been trying to counterwagon the whole game is actually exactly why I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra right? Like... you guys ARE the outrage

[DiamondSentinel]

Math, let me put it simply for you.

In this setup, scum are almost

entirely

incapable of bussing more than one vote at a time. Scum has one loss; that's it. They can't use bussing to get towncred from a flip. (I had originally considered making this a really really big long drawn-out paragraph but I don't really have much more to say. Bussing is just a bad idea for scum.)

Basically, what I was getting at is this: if you think that cy is scum, you're saying that we are the most likely scum-pair.

Is that the hill you are willing to die on?

PEdit: Do scum have daychat? I'm gonna guess that there's no hard defending no matter who the wagon is.

And anyways, I'm not counterwagoning. I've been pushing other people the entire time. I just simple don't SR cy.

[Sky_Paladin]

Correct play for scum with cy/Lalendra is to NOT post a ton of outrage to make it look like there's no one defending them, in the hopes that town will whip up a lynch on someone else.

Wait on second thought, you understand that the fact that you/Diamond have been trying to counterwagon the whole game is actually exactly why I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra right? Like... you guys ARE the outrage

yesss, towncleared~~

[LlamaFluff]

hyung replaces manrock

[Mathdino]

In this setup, scum are almost

entirely

incapable of bussing more than one vote at a time. Scum has one loss; that's it. They can't use bussing to get towncred from a flip. (I had originally considered making this a really really big long drawn-out paragraph but I don't really have much more to say. Bussing is just a bad idea for scum.)

Basically, what I was getting at is this: if you think that cy is scum, you're saying that we are the most likely scum-pair.

Is that the hill you are willing to die on?

PEdit: Do scum have daychat? I'm gonna guess that there's no hard defending no matter who the wagon is.

And anyways, I'm not counterwagoning. I've been pushing other people the entire time. I just simple don't SR cy.

1. I disagree with this 100% and I recommend reading the history of the setup (especially in the cases that mafia won) to see why that's incorrect.
Scum uses bussing to make it look like the wagon is on town. Because if everyone wants to lynch someone, that someone must be town right? (no)

2. Uh, that's a weird question. Sky said that if cy/Lal are scum, there'd probably be a ton of outrage/counterwagoning from another hydra. I pointed out that you guys are literally that hydra, and by his own logic, from my standpoint, cy/Lal could still be scum. That logic works much better if you know that you guys are town.

And I'm not gonna do a "lynch me if I'm wrong" thing, that would be stupid (is that what you're asking?). Like, if cy/Lal are town, then you guys get massive towncred from voting other people all day and giving me/Sheep a ton of pushback on the idea.

3. Don't think so, IIRC from reading the role PMs.

4. Whether or not you intend to counterwagon (or believe it's justified) doesn't change the fact that that's what you're doing. Counterwagoning doesn't have to be intentional.

[Mathdino]

Correct play for scum with cy/Lalendra is to NOT post a ton of outrage to make it look like there's no one defending them, in the hopes that town will whip up a lynch on someone else.

Wait on second thought, you understand that the fact that you/Diamond have been trying to counterwagon the whole game is actually exactly why I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra right? Like... you guys ARE the outrage

yesss, towncleared~~

Yeah it's contradictory. Scum can honestly do whatever the fuck they want and it's pretty much all null (NIHILISM YEAH). There are a few specific things that I would probably for sure townread people for but I'm not gonna say what they are because then scum will just emulate that.

The first quote is in response to you. When I talk to people I assume they're town. From your standpoint, cy/Lalendra can still be scum because it'd be very good play for other potential scum hydrae to look like they want cy/Lalendra lynched.

The second quote is an afterthought I had when you tried to prove cy/Lalendra were town because there was no outrage. I'm saying, by your own logic (which is kinda bunk because all scumhunting is bunk, sorry for being a broken record), you guys could still be scum, and I've noticed the potential connection.

They could be scum with anybody, idfk.

[DiamondSentinel]

In this setup, scum are almost

entirely

incapable of bussing more than one vote at a time. Scum has one loss; that's it. They can't use bussing to get towncred from a flip. (I had originally considered making this a really really big long drawn-out paragraph but I don't really have much more to say. Bussing is just a bad idea for scum.)

Basically, what I was getting at is this: if you think that cy is scum, you're saying that we are the most likely scum-pair.

Is that the hill you are willing to die on?

PEdit: Do scum have daychat? I'm gonna guess that there's no hard defending no matter who the wagon is.

And anyways, I'm not counterwagoning. I've been pushing other people the entire time. I just simple don't SR cy.

1. I disagree with this 100% and I recommend reading the history of the setup (especially in the cases that mafia won) to see why that's incorrect.
Scum uses bussing to make it look like the wagon is on town. Because if everyone wants to lynch someone, that someone must be town right? (no)

2. Uh, that's a weird question. Sky said that if cy/Lal are scum, there'd probably be a ton of outrage/counterwagoning from another hydra. I pointed out that you guys are literally that hydra, and by his own logic, from my standpoint, cy/Lal could still be scum. That logic works much better if you know that you guys are town.

And I'm not gonna do a "lynch me if I'm wrong" thing, that would be stupid (is that what you're asking?). Like, if cy/Lal are town, then you guys get massive towncred from voting other people all day and giving me/Sheep a ton of pushback on the idea.

3. Don't think so, IIRC from reading the role PMs.

4. Whether or not you intend to counterwagon (or believe it's justified) doesn't change the fact that that's what you're doing. Counterwagoning doesn't have to be intentional.

1. That is strictly because of misassumptions by the town. If town avoids making stupid assumptions like that, then bussing is a bad decision.

2. That's not what I'm asking. What I'm asking is for you to realize that this doesn't exist on an isolated stage. Thinking that cy/Lal is scum doesn't exempt you from consequent assumptions: ergo that myself and Sky are the most likely other scum pair.

4. And yet you still tried to make the claim that we were scum without actually making it.

[Mathdino]

Aaaaand this game is reduced to semantics and nitpicking.

"I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra"

Might be. As in, you guys aren't cleared. You could be scum with them, you could be scum without them, idfk, so many things are null it's not even funny.

My goal is to clear enough people through townreading them to just lynch among the remaining 3 hydrae and hit scum. I'd love to town-clear you guys, but I can't, so you're still in my lynchpool both days.
I'd also love to clear cy/Lalendra but I'm not really sure that's possible without straight up lynching them.

[Lalendra]

I super hate appeals to emotion and, even though it's totes your birthday, my knee-jerk reaction to ATE is to lynch it off the face of the earth.

Yeah, I can't even say that you're wrong about this. I'm usually the same way. I think I'm just sour on mafia tonight and need to sleep lol

[Mathdino]

Hey Dino, can you run your program again with the following parameters:

A - On day 1, if scum is killed, you don't roll again. Justification: Eliminate impossible scenario's from the decision matrix.

B - On day 1, if we sheep a scum player, odds of town win. Kingmaker scenario gone bad.

C - On day 1, if we sheep a town player, odds of town win. Kingmaker best case scenario.

By my math we're looking at around a 54.45 chance of a scum victory in A, a 72% chance of a scum victory in B, and a straight 50% chance of town/scum winning in C.

Random only
Kingmaker

Now doing my catch up post.

Ohhhh I see what's going wrong with this. Mathematical fallacy.

You're assuming that every single possible outcome of this game is equally likely. Lemme see if I can explain this by a simple analogy.

Say I flip a coin. If I get heads, I win! If I get tails, I flip again just once. If I get heads, I win! If I get tails a second time, I lose
Theoretical probability calculations suggest 75% chance of winning. 50% chance of winning initially, and then an extra 25% for trying again and winning.

The way that you've performed your calculations, you assume that all scenarios are equally likely. That is, yours would look like
A. Heads - heads
B. Heads - tails
C. Tails - heads
D. Tails - tails

But you would rewrite that (by crossing out impossible scenarios as:

A. Heads

-

heads

B. Heads - tails

C. Tails - heads

D. Tails - tails

Scenario B is now impossible (because if you win on the first flip, you don't flip again). So there are only 3 outcomes. Heads first try, tails then heads, and tails.

This implies a much lower winrate of 66%. I invite you to try flipping a real coin to see that's inaccurate. The actual winrate is 75%.

The fallacy that you make will generally result in a probability much lower than expected from doing it correctly.

I'll go code the setup though just to definitively prove this.

[Sky_Paladin]

(I believe my 'kingmaker' image does represent what you are about to go code up - please have a quick look and see if you can save yourself some time)

[Mathdino]

I did. You still treated each outcome as equally likely by removing a bunch of scenarios instead of COMBINING them.

You're also wayyyy overcomplicating it. We already know who everyone's lovers are. So couple flaws:

1. You can't lynch the same player twice
2. You can't lynch one player then lynch their lover

If you want to Excel this, and you totally can (as long as you remember not to cross out outcomes, because it doesn't work that way), you should model it with 6 hydrae, 2 of which are scum, and lynching either on either day wins.

Think about it this way. The case of a town win on D1 is actually more likely than the case of a town win on D2. This seems counterintuitive. But town winning on D1 is just a straight up 1/3 shot (it's actually still 1/3 if we randomly select a kingmaker who dice rolls). Town winning on D2 relies on lynching town D1 (2/3 shot) and THEN lynching scum on D2 (2/5 shot). Think about why this is slightly less likely.

[Sky_Paladin]

1. You can't lynch the same player twice
2. You can't lynch one player then lynch their lover

Oh.

You're right. I'll revisit this when I've had some sleep. My eyes are starting to glaze over.

[sheepsaysmeep]

ew

[Sky_Paladin]

inb4 pagetop?

[Sky_Paladin]

Dammit

[sheepsaysmeep]

lol

[sheepsaysmeep]

dont h8 me