Mini 1968: Bread uPick: The Baker's Dozen: Endgame


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Post Post #863 (isolation #0) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:54 am

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Hello everyone. I'm reading up, and will be done tonight or tomorrow. Shout if there's anything I should particularly look at as a priority.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:53 am

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Dunker looks to somewhere around L-2. It would be great if we could not quicklynch here - as well as generally being a bad thing to do, I'd really like a chance to get caught up first (I've hardly got anything done today through a New Year's hangover - tomorrow will be much better).
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Post Post #894 (isolation #2) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:53 am

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TL;DR{Chickadee, Wormhole, Firebringer}
{drealmer, Smocaine}
{Dunker, McMenno, Wheme}
{Gorkington}
VOTE: Gorkington


Gork is scum
  • Gork's play around drealmer's early wagon is bad. Here, Gork townreads both of the wagon, and says dreal's play is "weird" without quite saying it's scummy. Gork then asks drealmer to be less combative. It really feels like Gork wants to push the wagon, without getting into conflict with drealmer - who was playing aggressively at that point in the game.
  • I disliked the exchange with Firebringer which starts here. Gork is using his history with FB to push the latter out of a scumread, while simultaneously doing some buddying with FB. This really feels like something scum would be more likely to do; it's pretty manipulative.
  • Gork fits really well as a partner for Misa. This goes in both directions, but for the bits which are Misa-driven, I just don't see her being a crafty enough scumbag to plant this link on purpose. Repeatedly, Misa is concerned about scumreads on Gork, in a way that she isn't for anything else in the game.
    • Misa explains a post of Gork's for no obvious reason.
    • She tries to defuse a conflict involving Gork.
    • She comments on Gork's argument with FB, initially not picking a side and then voting FB when pressed - with no reason for preferring FB over Gork.
    • Gork then asks about this - but not for long, and doesn't really do anything about it.
    • He later says here that Misa is "even harder to sort than Fykus". This feels really off; Misa had quite a lot that could be read, and it felt like Gork was prodding at it earlier. I wouldn't expect Gork to be putting her in an unreadable pile at this point.


Other reads
Town

Chickadee
. The mod says so.
Firebringer
. Claims a scum kill.
Wormhole
. Said what I was thinking a number of times as I reread, and both heads seem to be trying hard. BV's reaction to dunker's intent to hammer looked really genuine and townish. But the clincher is the windows into the hydra; it's like having access to a player's internal monologue, which I think is hard to fake and in this case obvtown.

Weak town

drealmer
  • The opening, aggressive drealmer felt really, really different to the one game I've played with scum!drealmer.
  • I don't see scum!drealmer picking a fight with someone who has just shot their scumbuddy.
Smocaine
- looks to believe in things and push them.

Weak scum

McMenno
- he's done very little. A few pushes here and there never got followed up, and the rest is just little jokes.
Wheme
- also not done much. A couple of things struck me as weird - his declaration that he wouldn't move off dreal felt forced, because it was so early in the game, and after hammering he declared who he'd be going after if the flip was town.
dunker
- I don't buy all that much of the case against dunker; lots of it is keenness on death, which annoys me but is fairly NAI. The one bit that sticks out for me is 548. This was clearly written with an assumption that Fykus was town. That is quite likely because dunker knows that for sure.


As I got near the end of this, I noticed that Wheme claims a cop inno on dunker. That naturally changes things somewhat, but I'm leaving as is for the sake of getting caught up quicker. I'm going to think about it next.
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Post Post #895 (isolation #3) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:55 am

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@Wheme
: you say you have a cop inno on dunker. Is that from night 1? If so, why did you vote dunker and ask for him to claim today?
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Post Post #898 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:52 am

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Any thoughts on it? You have a strong townread on Gork - where's that coming from?
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Post Post #900 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:02 am

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You've claimed cop, but voted your supposed inno at the start of the day. I'm not going to just trust you without answers to the questions in 895.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:23 am

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In post 901, WhemeStar wrote:And I'm not claiming anymore of my role so stop fishing
No. You've claimed something that seriously doesn't match your behaviour. Without a reason for that, there's every reason to believe you are lying.
In post 902, Wormhole wrote: Fish, I like your catchup post lol; both because it's so nicely organized lol and because I mostly like the content you've provided. It's not enough to bump you up from nullscum yet, cuz of how you're slot has been the whole game, but so far I like what I'm seeing.
Is there a reason my slot is at nullscum rather than null for you? It looks to my like it's got no content, except for one really weird post from Ecto that I haven't seen anyone think is scummy rather than just weird.

And yeah, I do try to make my longer posts nicely formatted these days, to stop people's eyes glazing over quite so much.
In post 902, Wormhole wrote:
In post 894, Fishythefish wrote:But the clincher is the windows into the hydra; it's like having access to a player's internal monologue, which I think is hard to fake and in this case obvtown.
I dunno what this means lol.
The best example is probably this one:
In post 694, Wormhole wrote:tldr: I'd be OK with it, but I want Fykus or you more (although it seems you're more off the table now), but BV *really* doesn't want the day to end yet, until *he* figures out which of fykus/dreal/dunk he wants more, and he also doesn't want the day to end without hearing like opinions from dreal/ecto/misa/chick when she comes off v/la.
Making up this sentiment from BV would be impressive stuff, and the sentiment not something that is likely to come from scum. I think that to fake this and other posts like it, you'd have to maintaining a whole "if we were town" thread in your hydra, which would be more effort than people usually put in.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:40 am

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Firebringer shot Misa. So that's not very likely.

Your PGO theory doesn't really work. scum!Firebringer
wouldn't even know
Misa visited a PGO, so wouldn't know it was safe to claim the kill.
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Post Post #911 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:22 am

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In post 908, Wormhole wrote:@FishytheFish, what do you think of Drealmerz's tracker claim (and refusal to claim his results)? It was one of the things I wanted to have out in the open before the end of the day. It seems like Dunker is your second strongest scumread. Do you have any thoughts on his interactions with MisaTange. Also, in general I like your catch up and Gork case. He was definitely floating under the radar for much of D1 and someone we wanted to look into more today.

Which scumgame have you played with Drealmer? I quickly skimmed another scumgame of Drealmerz's and his tone seemed very similar to here.

-BV
On drealmerz:
- The tracker claim is very likely true, and pretty much NAI. Refusal to claim results is fine. I don't want him outing a PR or a VT; if he's not really a tracker we'll find out eventually.
- Interactions with Misa: they didn't really interact that much AFAIC. I don't think Misa/dunk is either particularly likely or particularly unlikely.
- The game I played with drealmer was this one.
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Post Post #915 (isolation #9) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:21 am

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In post 912, Firebringer wrote:
In post 906, Fishythefish wrote:Firebringer shot Misa. So that's not very likely.

Your PGO theory doesn't really work. scum!Firebringer
wouldn't even know
Misa visited a PGO, so wouldn't know it was safe to claim the kill.
That and misa visited chickadee
Oh. Yeah, missed that.
In post 904, Chickadee wrote:Actually, that one weird post is the reason I find your slot scummy.
Why?
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Post Post #917 (isolation #10) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:28 pm

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Meh. I agree that it was pretty illogical, but I don't think scum are anything like that bad at finding something to push. Weird != scummy.

What do you think of my catch-up? And particularly Gork?
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Post Post #943 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:19 pm

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This town really does need to pull itself together. The two main things here are:
1) Gork is scum.
2) Wheme is probably fakeclaiming cop, and needs to fullclaim, retract his claim, or die.
Can we please focus on those things?
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Post Post #945 (isolation #12) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:22 am

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OK - so if you are a straight up cop, why did you vote dunker and demand his claim after investigating him?
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Post Post #947 (isolation #13) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:30 am

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So, what are you? I find it very unlikely that you can't reveal enough of your role to explain this.
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Post Post #951 (isolation #14) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:31 am

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TL;DR:

Gork's response makes me feel less sure about Gork being scum - it makes some good points. However, I still think he's a very likely partner for Misa.

@Gork: I was sad when you asked to replace out halfway through my catchup, and I'm glad you didn't. I'm looking forward to seeing more from you - and either way I hope you get better health-wise.

Gork/dreal argument
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:Gork's play around drealmer's early wagon is bad. Here, i) Gork townreads both of the wagon,
i dont really see the magnitude of any wagons, so no idea who youre referring to other than creature here. for creature, yes, having played with him, its literally trivial to parse his towngame from his scumgame. can ask other people in the game for confirmation on this.
I was referring to wheme and fen here; they were the two people voting dreal at this point, and you townread them both with no explanation.
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:and says dreal's play is "weird" without quite saying it's scummy. Gork then asks drealmer to be less combative. It really feels like Gork wants to push the wagon, without getting into conflict with drealmer - who was playing aggressively at that point in the game.
i) drealm has admitted hes playing weird this game.
ii) drealm engaged me about OOG stuff, i responded, he responded [being a dick] and i asked him to stop. literally none of this has anything to do with me pushing him or scumreading him. kind of a lazy assessment of that interaction. there was no "wagon" to push while avoiding it. why would i even care about that at the start of d1 anyways when a lynch is probably not happening that early?
The bit about pushing him and avoiding the wagon was this from post 52: "i feel weird about drealm, but i remember feeling weird about him earlygame during his last towngame so.". There were two votes on drealm at that point - the two people you had unexplained townreads on in that same post. I think you'd care about avoiding being on it to avoid conflict, rather than directly because you'd look bad on a lynch.

You asking dreal to stop being a dick - yeah, on second look I agree that there's nothing scummy there.


Gork/FB exchange
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:I disliked the exchange with Firebringer which starts here. Gork is using his history with FB to push the latter out of a scumread, while simultaneously doing some buddying with FB. This really feels like something scum would be more likely to do; it's pretty manipulative.
i) i buddy people as town pretty often, especially people i like and especially especially people i like that i think are town.
ii) i wont lie that i was manipulative, but it was kneejerk and probably something i actually wouldnt do as scum because i would feel bad about it. i dont think about things before i do them as town. as scum im a nervous mess overthinking my every post. im not going to immediately go the bullying route if im being scumread by someone i consider my friend and firebringer and i have a lot of context outside of the game. pretty sure firebringer's townread on me is based to some degree on that? but i could be wrong.
This is interesting self meta, and makes me feel quite a lot better about your interaction with FB.

@FB:
do you agree with Gork's analysis of his meta here?


Gork/Misa link
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:Gork fits really well as a partner for Misa. This goes in both directions, but for the bits which are Misa-driven, I just don't see her being a crafty enough scumbag to plant this link on purpose. Repeatedly, Misa is concerned about scumreads on Gork, in a way that she isn't for anything else in the game.
i was going to rebutt against this, but rereading back, misa does this literally once that i can see. so. not really sure why youre exaggerating unless you just want the case to sound better?
Misa concerned herself for no particular reason about:
- dreal questioning your Creature read aggressively on page 2
- dreal arguing with you about meta on page 3
- You arguing with Firebringer
She seemed to care much, much more about arguments involving you than about anything else in the game.
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:Misa explains a post of Gork's for no obvious reason.
In post 37, MisaTange wrote:I assume that Gork said that due to meta-reasons. "He doesn't post like that as scum."
or trying to find something thats easy to jump into the game on.
Sure. As an isolated thing, this would be nothing at all.
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:She tries to defuse a conflict involving Gork.
no idea what this is referring to
I was talking about (and linked to) this post, which is wading in on an argument between you and dreal to call it NAI:
In post 63, MisaTange wrote:I feel like this "experience vs 'generating reads in this game'" is a matter of playstyle and NAI, especially this early in the game.
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:She comments on Gork's argument with FB, initially not picking a side and then voting FB when pressed - with no reason for preferring FB over Gork.
having a reason to have a vote on someone to seem like she isnt doing nothing? its not possible to you that misa took some noisy tVt shit and used it to try to generate some content as scum, rather than immediately jumping to "SCUM IS PROTECTING THEIR KIN!"?
i feel that stuff doesnt happen as often with players like misa? honestly i would probably raise my eyebrow in a kneejerk way too with misa flip in hand, but if you think about this, should probably not be that cut and dry.
This is another one that isn't a big deal on it's own. But I think these add up to a pattern of Misa caring much more about you than anyone else in the game.
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:Gork then asks about this - but not for long, and doesn't really do anything about it.
does it seem like i really did much about anything in this game questionwise? ive been pretty fucked healthwise the last week and a half and burnt out to some degree mafia-wise. literally was not feeling confident about a scumread on anyone, which was pretty much a universal experience in this game. i would be surprised if there werent ten other questions that i threw at other people at some point during this game hoping to get a feel for them, which i didnt get something with, so i moved on. do it a lot as town. possibly less this game because its been a slog and wasnt at 100%.
This is fair; this was confirmation bias on my part. There's no link to Misa here (the overall lack of following up is possibly a mild scumtell, but also well explained by health/burnout)
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:
fishyguy wrote:He later says here that Misa is "even harder to sort than Fykus". This feels really off; Misa had quite a lot that could be read, and it felt like Gork was prodding at it earlier.
I wouldn't expect Gork to be putting her in an unreadable pile at this point.
why not for the bolded? she wasnt answering any of my questions with any degree of actual substance or insight into her thought process. i generally get reads based on understanding how people think. i had no idea how misa's thought process worked at all.
The bolded is because you had had some interaction with Misa - particularly post 240, where you asked her two pretty pointed questions. Fykus, on the other hand, looked like a pure lurker lynch to you.
In post 949, Gorkington wrote:i get the misa/me connection because its flashy and she made some awkward posts that have my name in them and i appreciate the big catch-up post so quick after replacing in, but you missed a lot context and not putting quotes in your case made it impossible to follow what you were saying at points.
I try to avoid quote walls (yeah, I know I'm currently in one). I find an argument with links to relevant posts easier to follow without eyes glazing over (and the biggest confusion looks like you didn't follow one of the links?). That's a matter of opinion, of course.
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Post Post #960 (isolation #15) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:14 am

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@Chick, dunkers: does it worry you that Wheme is claiming he got an inno on dunkers and then immediately voted him and demanded a claim?
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Post Post #963 (isolation #16) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:01 am

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There's a cool middle ground where we demand a better claim, and only kill him off if he won't claim or his claim doesn't make sense.
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Post Post #966 (isolation #17) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:26 am

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In post 964, Wormhole wrote:I think that there's a fairly decent chance he's fakeclaiming cop to back his Dunk townread tbh. Idk, I've never played with him before, but this doesn't seem that scummy *for him*.

IE I don't especially believe the cop claim, but I don't think he's necessarily scummy for claiming it. I don't exactly know how to explain this better tbh.

What do you think about Dunk?
I agree - "fakeclaiming cop as town" is definitely near the top of my theories here. However, I'd feel pretty stupid lynching dunkers if there's a real cop inno on him. I guess we could just ignore the claim unless/until Wheme makes it convincing

Nothing has changed since my catchup on Dunk - he's weakly scum to me. His posting is mostly stuff I can't read because it doesn't make much sense to me; he clearly doesn't think about this game in the same way I do. The one bit of the case that makes sense is that he *may* have given away that he knew Fykus was town.

Could you summarise why you think Dunk is scum?
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Post Post #978 (isolation #18) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:49 am

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In post 968, Wormhole wrote:
In post 966, Fishythefish wrote:I agree - "fakeclaiming cop as town" is definitely near the top of my theories here. However,
I'd feel pretty stupid lynching dunkers if there's a real cop inno on him
. I guess we could just ignore the claim unless/until Wheme makes it convincing

Nothing has changed since my catchup on Dunk - he's weakly scum to me. His posting is mostly stuff I can't read because it doesn't make much sense to me; he clearly doesn't think about this game in the same way I do.
The one bit of the case that makes sense is that he *may* have given away that he knew Fykus was town
.

Could you summarise why you think Dunk is scum?
Idk, I just don't think fake-claiming is that scummy for *wheme* in particular. And you haven't expressed a super big interest in lynching dunker right now, so the italics is kinda a weird phrasing for me.
In post 894, Fishythefish wrote:The one bit that sticks out for me is 548. This was clearly written with an assumption that Fykus was town. That is quite likely because dunker knows that for sure.
What changed between the above and the bolded?

Case on Dunk (and his predecessor) is discussed in: , , , , ,

tldr: Fen had a bizarre progression on Creature and then disappeared when he was under pressure. Dunk wanted to hammer anyone within hammering range, regardless of his read on them, and I think that is actually kinda damning.

--s
I don't know wheme; I was thinking about it being a fake-claim as either alignment because a) it looks fake and b) it makes no sense for scum or town.

The italics - dunkers is both a decent and likely lynch. That means it's important we work out whether cop innos on him are real or not.

Nothing much changed on 548 for me. I think:
- When Wheme made 548, he was assuming Fykus was town.
- That may be because he knew that (and is scum), or for some other reason (which is null). It's hard to say exactly how likely each of those are; it's a decent point against him but certainly not cast-iron.

On the rest of the dunk case:
- I'd totally forgotten Fenraiser when summarising Dunk. Silly me. Yep, Fenraiser's early play was weird, and your post 150 was one that I completely agreed with while rereading. It feels like Fenraiser doesn't really believe in his reads, which is pretty scummy.
- Alas, I don't think wanting to hammer anything that moves is a good scumtell. There's no real scum motivation - particularly when dunkers replaced in, when a Fykus lynch looked very likely.
- BV's meta in 545 is interesting. But it looks like a pretty small sample.

dunk's roleclaim is actually a small towntell for me. Not for the role itself, but because dunk thought it would get him towncred. Town are more likely to think that; because scum would *know* that the role could be scum.

---

On another note: you said you had thoughts on my catch-up but you lost the post. Is there more you haven't said?
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #19) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:50 pm

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Yeah, so calling it "the Ectomancer slot" and quoting two posts only from Ecto when I've now produced the majority of the slot's content is ridiculous. It feels like I've replaced in to your designated mislynch and you want to ignore that.
1) Ecto's first post you quote is not shade. It's a reasonable question.
2) Ecto's second post is weird, sure. Why would scum post it? If you don't have an answer, it's a weirdtell, not a scumtell.
3) What about my play?
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Post Post #1067 (isolation #20) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:56 pm

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@Wheme: does your role rule that Dunk being a scum motion detector without a fakeclaim (or a fakeclaim of "town motion detector")? Fakeclaims exist for obviously scummy roles, so I don't see why scum!Dunk would have one beyond his actual role.
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Post Post #1068 (isolation #21) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:57 pm

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In post 979, Gorkington wrote:i guess my biggest response to all of the misa stuff in general is i dont really think scum generally plays the way youre implying they play like here? these are a lot of associating posts for her to drop about me. some of them are super blatant.
do you, as scum, focus entirely on your partners? have you seen people do that? i really want to stress this part. i know sometimes you feel like something is scummy, but if you stop and think about how many times youve seen scum do something, you kind of realize that it actually is more of a feeling than an actual general scumtell.

at the end of the day, misa probably wanted to seem like she was generating as much content as she needed to, to look town. she wanted to seem like she was scumhunting, so she picked fire and i's conversation because it honestly does look weird to anyone who doesnt know us and then latched onto it in order to drop a vote on fire and look like she had a read with reasoning behind it. if you think im scum with her because she had awkward interactions with me while doing so, thats totally fine, i just think its a serious stretch to think that misa would have been protecting me, given that i was definitely not in any kind of trouble.

if you feel differently still, wont press the issue, just wanted to make my thoughts clear.
On whether scum play like this: I think most don't; I certainly don't. But I think it's a scum reflex to care about your partners, and that newer/less thoughtful/worse scum might have well focus on a buddy. It would be a quite a coincidence if Misa's focus on you was just random; and I think it's very unlikely it's deliberate to set up this line.
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #22) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:00 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Dunk:
you say you softed a strong PR to draw a kill? Why, given that your role is actually quite strong?
In post 980, Wormhole wrote:
In post 978, Fishythefish wrote:That may be because he knew that (and is scum), or for some other reason (which is null). It's hard to say exactly how likely each of those are; it's a decent point against him but certainly not cast-iron.
In post 894, Fishythefish wrote:This was clearly written with an assumption that Fykus was town. That is quite likely because dunker knows that for sure.
So my point is that in 894, you clearly indicate that you believe that Dunk wrote that post knowing that Fykus is town. In 978 (and the bolded in 966), I kinda feel like you're downplaying the strength of this argument.

You went from 'that is quite likely because Dunker knows that for sure' -> 'he *may* have given away that he knew Dunk is town' -> 'decent point against him but certainly not cast-iron'. You went from agreeing with it to downplaying it's significance, and I'm trying to understand what happened to change your view on this point against Dunk.
I think I went from "X is quite likely" to "X may be true here"? That's a fairly small shift which I think mostly just reflects the fact that I have trouble weighing the probability with any exactness. Like, I think there's definitely a 30-70% chance that Dunk's 584 is a scumslip, and beyond that it's really hard to calibrate.
In post 980, Wormhole wrote:
In post 978, Fishythefish wrote:dunk's roleclaim is actually a small towntell for me. Not for the role itself, but because dunk thought it would get him towncred. Town are more likely to think that; because scum would *know* that the role could be scum.
I don't understand this point. Why would scum *know* that motion detector could be scum? (And not, say, any other role).

I agree that Dunk thought it would get him towncred, which is explicitly why I think it's scummy. I don't see the town motivation for softing there.
Agree on town motivation; I've asked Dunk more about that at the top of this post.

Dunk!motion-detector-scum
is
a scum motion detector, and so knows that motion detector is a completely plausible scum role, and so is less likely to believe that motion detector will get towncred. This pattern of thought isn't totally logical, but I think it's real - I think it's rare that scum think they are going to get massive towncred when claiming their role, because they overestimate the chances of that role being given to scum.
In post 1009, Wormhole wrote:Fish - the tldr is that although I like his content, I feel like it's basically exactly where scum replacing into his slot ought to be pushing, so I'm hesitant to call him town for it; I don't know if the pushes he's making are AI. He could be town trying to get out of a tight spot, but he could well be scum trying to get out of a tight spot too. I feel like he's dancing around his Dunk scumread, and that his scumreads on wheme/mcmenno are slightly oppurtunistic. Like I understand why they're scumreads, but I also feel like if they're town, they're kidna lynchbait-y and are easy pushes. I do like his Gork case though, since me/BV had similar trepidiation about Gork overnight that we had discussed at length
This seems kinda unfair. My main scumread and case is on Gork, which a) is completely new and b) you like. Scumreading me by focusing on my less important reads (which I agree aren't nearly as well thought out or solid) is demanding a really high standard from someone who's replaced in fairly recently.

Agree that Wheme and McMenno are lynchbait-y and easy pushes if town. I have serious trouble sorting that sort of player; in a game where I have quite a lot of townreads, they are going to end up in a PoE scum pile, but it's not a pile I'm happy with.

Dancing around my scumread on Dunk - not sure what you mean by this. I think Dunk is hard to read, and that quite a lot of the reason people are voting him is NAI, but there are a couple of decent points as well. He's a better lynch than most, but not as likely scum as Gork.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #23) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:01 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1056, Gorkington wrote:additional reading:
Why is 659 scum? And why is this the first time you've talked about it?
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Post Post #1084 (isolation #24) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:33 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

(I'm multiposting to respond to different threads. If you prefer a single post, shout.)
In post 1071, Gorkington wrote:
In post 1068, Fishythefish wrote:On whether scum play like this: I think most don't; I certainly don't. But I think it's a scum reflex to care about your partners, and that newer/less thoughtful/worse scum might have well focus on a buddy. It would be a quite a coincidence if Misa's focus on you was just random; and I think it's very unlikely it's deliberate to set up this line.
and why exactly is it not coincidence? like, seriously lets run through all of these interactions and you tell me how it doesnt just read like her commenting on the soup de jour?
Because it would be a very unlikely coincidence. Yes, these all look like Misa commenting on the soup de jour. But there were lots of other soups that Misa left alone. I think her play betrays the fact that she was thinking hard about you.

In post 1069, Fishythefish wrote:Agree that Wheme and McMenno are lynchbait-y and easy pushes if town. I have serious trouble sorting that sort of player; in a game where I have quite a lot of townreads, they are going to end up in a PoE scum pile, but it's not a pile I'm happy with.
are you going to address the posts i pulled about mcenno? because just ignoring them, saying mcmenno is lynchbait and reiterating that im scum is going to make me feel a lot more comfortable thinking youre both scum.
This was me responding to something specific from s-Wormhole, who had criticised my scumreads other than you as kind of easy because of the types of players you were on. Wormhole said "Like I understand why they're scumreads, but I also feel like if they're town, they're kidna lynchbait-y and are easy pushes.". I think that's fair given the sort of players McMenno and Wheme are (relatively low content, hard to read); it's not a comment on how they are read.

I haven't actually thought about the recent McMenno stuff at all yet - I'll do so this morning.

In post 1070, Fishythefish wrote:Why is 659 scum? And why is this the first time you've talked about it?
its an appallingly bad assessment of smocaine's post. you have to not read smocaine's post entirely to not understand why he posted the votecount, which suggests that ecto wasnt reading or trying to understand anything and was just trying to push something that he thought would look convincing.
i responded to it initially thinking it was shitty. i just reread the game, (which you should know, given that i have been promising a reread/i just made catch-up posts that youve conveniently chosen to not really read at all) and i saw the post again.
I agree it's an appallingly bad assessment of smocaine's post. But where on earth is the scum motivation for it? Weird-and-wrong != scummy.

I totally missed your initial response to 659 - sorry.
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Post Post #1085 (isolation #25) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:35 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

A confession: I'd misunderstood Dunker's role until he asked me how it was powerful. I thought it detected who went in or out, rather than just motion. So I think his reason for softing strong PR to draw the NK makes sense.
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Post Post #1086 (isolation #26) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:09 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Last post catching up with things. Quite a lot has happened recently, and I need to do a proper review of my reads (particularly Gork, dunkers, McMenno); that'll be in the next few hours.
In post 1082, Wormhole wrote:@FishyTheFish, can you elaborate more on the differences you found between Drealmerz's scumgame and this game? The game you linked was the same one that I skimmed through. I initially thought Drealmerz was town because his frustration at the beginning of the game towards people townreading Creature seemed genuine but when I skimmed through his scumgame, he had a similarly, frustrated, annoyed tone at the beginning. This doesn't mean he's scum here but it does mean that my initial townread was wrong and that I should be reading him based on other things.
Sure. In PYP, he took much more of a back seat than that; for most of the game I thought he was town with good thoughts who wasn't confident enough to voice them in the thread (we had a hood where he played me like a violin). I don't see any of that here; his early play particularly was really aggressive - both in going after people hard, and in the way he posted. That's dropped off a bit, but he still feels much more assertive here than he did there.
In post 1082, Wormhole wrote: I haven't yet figured out what I think of Drealmerz. I didn't like the way he claimed and expecting the claim to save him and then disappearing felt scummy. I also think tracker + JK is an unlikely combination of roles for town to have because both of them become stronger as the game goes on and scum are lynched. For instance, if we come down to the last scum remaining, we essentially have two cops. There's also some positive feedback in that if the town is winning, it becomes even more likely to win with roles like those (let me know if this doesn't make sense, I'm not sure if I'm phrasing this right).
Interesting point about tracker+JK, and it totally makes sense; but I wouldn't have thought most mods would think about that sort of subtlety? But I may be wrong on that.
In post 1082, Wormhole wrote:One of the problems we had about your posting was that you seemed very intent on getting Wheme to claim but not Drealmerz but your logic here makes some sense. But I'd like to hear more on Drealmerz and why this is different from his scumgame.
I think there was a very strong reason for Wheme to claim - it looked like a fakeclaim, and was therefore likely to be fake or weird. It has ended up being weird, and one that needs more thought - so in hindsight I also think it was the right decision. I see no strong reason for dreal to claim, so I don't think those are comparable at all.
In post 1082, Wormhole wrote:We haven't discussed Wheme's claim yet but personally I think if he's scum, he pulled it off really well and his behavior makes a lot of sense with the role he claims to have. Wheme's role is pretty odd though and it would mean that scum who fake-claim the roles that the mod gives them are more likely to do well. It would also suggest that the fake-claims they got are not necessarily abilities that they have.
For example, if Drealmerz is a scum tracker, then he would most likely get a town tracker fakeclaim. Wheme would get a result that he's a town tracker and Drealmerz would have real results to give. @FishytheFish, what do you think of this: Wheme's role being town doesn't really seem compatible with scum having town-like roles like tracker.
From that perspective, it might actually be a good idea to get Drealmerz to claim his results - although this is true only if Wheme is town. Overall, my guess at this point is that both Wheme and Dunker are more likely town than not.
Yeah, I agree on Wheme being likely town here. It would be an impressive role to make up (with the fakeclaims bit). But I don't think I understand the bolded - it seems to contradict itself? Isn't it consistent to have Wheme's role with a scum tracker whose fakeclaim is town tracker?
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #27) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:05 am

Post by Fishythefish »

So, where my reads are right now:
{Wormhole, Chickadee, Firebringer} - town
{Wheme, dreal, Smocaine} - weak town
{Gork, Dunker, McMenno} - scum pool

The main changes to that since my initial reread are:
- Wheme up to probtown for role reasons.
- I'm no longer anywhere near as confident as I was in my Gork read. His response has been pretty good - some points in my case I don't think are scummy any more, and he's feeling town in how he's approaching things right now. In particular, I feel like he's genuinely trying to work out what alignment I am in this argument. I still think he may well be a competent scum player who was exposed by a less skillful buddy.

@Firebringer:
please could you answer the question halfway down this post about Gork's meta?

My dunker read is kind of complicated. I think the relevant things are:
- Possible slip in post 584 - moderately scummy
- Softclaiming - mildly scummy. dunk's explanation of drawing the NK is possible, but "scum avoiding the NK" is more likely
- Thinking his claim would get him lots of towncred - mildly townish
- Fenraiser's play - scummy
- Claim backed up by Wheme - I don't actually think this says much about dunk's alignment. But I'm waiting on Wheme to answer a question on that.
Overall, I think dunkers is a good shout for scum.

I'd like to hear what McMenno has to say about Gork's 1018. An early push against Misa, then completely ignoring her for the rest of the day, is a pretty good fit for a partner.
@McMenno
- you said early on that you would "keep an eye" on Misa. How did you read on her change during the day?

So to summarise, where I am is:
- If Wheme's role doesn't clear dunkers, I think he's the most likely scum.
- Otherwise, I'd be torn between Gork and McMenno.

VOTE: dunkers
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Post Post #1090 (isolation #28) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:32 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Pick Your Poison. A tragic LYLO loss.
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #29) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:35 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1088, Gorkington wrote:
fishy wrote:I agree it's an appallingly bad assessment of smocaine's post. But where on earth is the scum motivation for it? Weird-and-wrong != scummy.
scum dont have the same incentive that town does to try and actually understand whether someone/something is scummy or not.
ecto basically had to not read the post, just see that smocaine posted an old votecount without trying to understand the context at all and then case him/vote him. its really the casing that makes me feel uncomfortable. if he had just asked him why he had done that, then thats potentially just a misunderstanding that he wants to clarify, but instead it just comes across as trying to generate busy content/push a mislynch.
Scum have a serious incentive to look like they are scumhunting, so they generally pick at things they think are genuinely scummy. So I don't think really weird reasons for reads are a good scumtell. If you disagree, there's probably little more to be said on this one, since I'm not Ecto and can't speak to his reasons here.
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #30) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:39 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1091, Smocaine wrote:
In post 1066, Fishythefish wrote:Yeah, so calling it "the Ectomancer slot" and quoting two posts only from Ecto when I've now produced the majority of the slot's content is ridiculous. It feels like I've replaced in to your designated mislynch and you want to ignore that.
1) Ecto's first post you quote is not shade. It's a reasonable question.
2) Ecto's second post is weird, sure. Why would scum post it? If you don't have an answer, it's a weirdtell, not a scumtell.
3) What about my play?
I quoted 2/3rds of the man's iso. If I had a 'designated mislynch' it would be Dreal given my set up.
1) The question paints Wheme in a scummy light regardless of his answer, and Ecto didn't press Wheme for an answer to it despite him ignoring it.
In post 622, Ectomancer wrote:ITT I overpromise and underdeliver.

Let's try a different strategy! Read nothing! Vote everything!

WhemeStar talk to me about why you arrived at the point where you feel that saying "Let's just kill someone"
was an advisable post
?
1.5) The phrasing here looks like someone approaching the game from a scum mindset.
2) Scum that was struggling to produce content saw an opportunity to 'jump' on something? It's also off that he goes from saying "vote everyone" in 622 to making a large post to only fos me. His play is too cautious for my liking.
3) I honestly haven't focused most of your content, but it didn't scream town outside of the volume of words in your posts. Would you say that's outside of your scumrange?
1) I think that's actually quite a good question to Wheme; it's asking why Wheme doesn't care who the lynch is. Not following up on it is clearly NAI for someone who flaked from the game!
1.5) Fair enough. I don't see it, but nothing to say here.
2) See post above.
3) Volume of posting is pretty NAI for me. Certainly after replacing in I'm going to be pretty damn active while settling in.
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Post Post #1097 (isolation #31) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:01 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Yes - not a super strong read, but he doesn't look like he did when I played with him as scum, and going after the guy who shot scum with a crazy PGO theory would be an unlikely scum move.
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Post Post #1099 (isolation #32) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:45 am

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1) What contradiction?
2) Typo - should have been "scum avoiding getting lynched".
3) See below.
4) He probably wouldn't. That's not what I think is happening.

Of your four scenarios - I think 3 and 4 are totally possible. Why can't a motion detector be scum? It's like a weak PR detector - not a strong role, but not implausible at all.
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Post Post #1128 (isolation #33) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:27 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

My activity from here on is going to drop off; I'm much busier IRL starting today. The hectic catch-up phase is over, so that should be fine. I'll still have a decent chunk of time for this game almost every day, and don't expect to fall behind.
In post 1102, WhemeStar wrote:Hey fish your wrong

If dunker is scum he isn't a scum motion detector
In post 1103, WhemeStar wrote:If I target scum I get their fakeclaim
Yeah, but does your role rule out:
1) Dunk is a scum motion detector
2) His fakeclaim is town motion detector
Because I just don't see why you'd give any other fakeclaim to a role which could totally be town or scum.

I mean, if Wheme's role really does confirm dunk as town, it seems to me that every role which is verifiable and NAI would need to be town as well. Take dreal for example - no way is the mod giving a scum tracker a fakeclaim other than tracker; that would be super strange and they wouldn't use it. Are we saying that means dreal has to be town?
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Post Post #1130 (isolation #34) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

^ I'll respond to this more fully later, but the difference I saw is in how confrontational dreal is, doing things like very directly accusing people of being scum - not in levels of scumhunting.

But I'll reread this; because it was definitely something that struck me very strongly early on, and I'm not 100% sure how well it persists later on.
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Post Post #1154 (isolation #35) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I really think we should be lynching dunkers here.

The information we have just doesn't clear dunkers - Wheme's now explicitly said that dunkers can be a scum motion detector with his result. And dunkers is the scummier of the two.
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Post Post #1155 (isolation #36) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:54 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1133, Wormhole wrote:
In post 1130, Fishythefish wrote:^ I'll respond to this more fully later, but the difference I saw is in how confrontational dreal is, doing things like very directly accusing people of being scum - not in levels of scumhunting.

But I'll reread this; because it was definitely something that struck me very strongly early on, and I'm not 100% sure how well it persists later on.
This is his ISO in the game you are talking about and I didn't notice any significant difference in how confrontational he is or felt that his accusations were more direct here than there. More specifics would help.

-BV
Sure. I think the best way to put is this:
- In Pick Your Poision, drealmerz talked a lot about himself, and a fair bit about why he had certain reads. But he almost never addressed his suspects directly; there's very little like "You're scum!" in his ISO. Along the same lines, he calls people (or their actions) "scummy" a lot, but rarely calls them scum.
- Here, he's much more direct. He declares that people are scum, sometimes straight at them. It's a much more confrontational approach.
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Post Post #1189 (isolation #37) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:59 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

The argument against me here can (I think) be summarised as:
1) I'm a very good fit for scum with McMenno yesterday
2) I'm in a small PoE pool.
Honestly, it's hard to argue with. 2) is just true. The only thing I'd say about 1) is this: I'm just not that bad at playing scum :). I wouldn't let a doomed partner drag me down, and wailing at universal townreads like dunkers is never good play for scum.

I get it if I get lynched here, though. If I do, please:
- Think more about whether dunkers's claim actually makes him town. Because
the mod has said it doesn't
.
- Look at Gork more. He's the person who I really think should be in your small scumpools and isn't.

---

What does gladiate mean?
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Post Post #1191 (isolation #38) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:08 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

That's a good point. Gork!scum bussing there does seem kinda unlikely - he didn't desperately need the towncred, and had other easy places to vote.
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Post Post #1192 (isolation #39) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:43 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I think I may as well claim; because I have a role that might mean I'm best left alive today, and we have at least one quickhammerer around.

I am
Shy
. If I'm ever visited by two players in the same night, I automatically die.

Right now, it would be beneficial if I could die without wasting a lynch or vig shot. I think we only know of one role who could visit me - Chickadee. If there's another player willing to visit me, I think we should:
- Not lynch me today (hint: lynch dunk instead)
- Kill me off tonight
Obviously, I'd then be lynched tomorrow if I'm alive for any reason.
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #40) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:22 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1193, Wormhole wrote:Is Shy some kind of bread?

-BV
Nope - that's my role. I forgot about the bread part because it's so very irrelevant to the game :P. My bread is
suikerbrood
. The flavour of my role is that as a mixture of sweet bread and savoury shape, I'm kind of a loner and not comfortable around other breads.

Well, I guess I now know what gladiate is from context. If that makes it me vs Wheme, I'll be lynched - and frankly from every POV except mine that's the right decision. Please don't treat dunkers as conftown when I'm gone.
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Post Post #1204 (isolation #41) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:01 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@s-Wormhole:
- I agree my reads have been malleable; they've changed with new information - both stuff that's happened (Gork's responses to me) and stuff that's been pointed out to me (more of the case on dunkers). I really, really don't think that's a scumtell. That one on Gork bussing today did make me do a bit of a facepalm; I made that first post thinking that I might get lynched really quite quickly, and hadn't yet properly updated my reads for the scum flip.
- On dunkers being a universal townread: I think practically everyone except me thinks Wheme's investigation is strong evidence that dunkers is town. Nothing changed between 1189 and 1192; I think dunkers is scum, and pretty much everyone else thinks he's town.
- I think this would be a pretty crappy claim for scum to make! It ensures that, one way or another, I die by tomorrow. Since there's only one scum left, PR fishing would therefore be pretty pointless.
- Yeah, it's probably 8-1, and that's a great position. But it seems silly to make it worse deliberately.
In post 1197, Dunkerdoodles wrote:
In post 1192, Fishythefish wrote:I think I may as well claim; because I have a role that might mean I'm best left alive today, and we have at least one quickhammerer around.

I am
Shy
. If I'm ever visited by two players in the same night, I automatically die.

Right now,
it would be beneficial if I could die without wasting a lynch or vig shot.
I think we only know of one role who could visit me - Chickadee. If there's another player willing to visit me, I think we should:
- Not lynch me today (hint: lynch dunk instead)

- Kill me off tonight
Obviously, I'd then be lynched tomorrow if I'm alive for any reason.
um
i can visit you
so you literally contradicted yourself in the same post.
Oh, so you can; missed that. Cool; so if I don't get lynched today Chick and dunkers should visit me to kill me off.
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Post Post #1229 (isolation #42) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Well done town. Thanks to everyone for playing, and the mod for running a very smooth game.

The setup seems heavily town sided - there are some very strong roles in there, every townie is a PR, and the scumteam is basically vanilla. We were also roundly outplayed in the thread, but I think even a more balanced game skill-wise would have resulted in an easy town win.

For my part, I was actually playing to get scumread at the end of Day 2 (but not before). By then, I'd decided our only chance was a cop investigation on me, as I was a Godfather (which looks like it didn't actually do anything?). Similarly, my claim today was a desperate attempt to survive a day and draw PRs onto me.

One unfortunate thing - scum roles (including mine)
did
have the same fakeclaim as role. So if Wheme had investigated me, he'd have got a "clear" in exactly the same way he did for dunkers.
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Post Post #1237 (isolation #43) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:59 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I'm not sure I see how banana bread is that strong? An unblockable kill every other night is not *that* big a deal. Particularly when you compare it with things like vig and nightskip, which are guaranteed to improve the usual lynch/kill cycle in town's favour (which particularly hurts here, where there are lots of people who can be confirmed or nearly confirmed town)
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Post Post #1241 (isolation #44) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:05 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I’m not sure I see how strongman’s fakeclaim was that solid... isn’t it just a cop claim?

Yeah, those three were the roles I was thinking of as unlynchable. 3 unlynchable roles, and a few more that could end up that way, seems a lot to me. This may just be the shifting meta - I haven’t played much in a while, and I understand towns have more power than in the old days.
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Post Post #1242 (isolation #45) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:07 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh, ok - the strongman investigates the gf, and looks good even after the flip. I guess that would have been a pretty big deal.
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