Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[sheepsaysmeep]

pagetop

[Toranaga]

"Tora: sheep is my lover, I'll sheep sheep *votes cytheflyguy*"

that was literally my entire contribution to this game

OTOH I'm pretty confident on my townleands and think this is over ever since at least 2 lover pairs became obvious town

[Mathdino]

Which ones other than yours?

Also read sheep's 253.

sheep, stop pagetopping, it hides the pagebottom content. I've often missed what you're even posting.

[Mathdino]

I MEANT 453

[Toranaga]

wait tor
what do you think of 453

yeah they're wolves man

I mean we didn't need all these pages really

do you wanna change to either or something

[sheepsaysmeep]

also no pagetops are my city

[MathBlade]

So we seriously have an argument based on math we should randomly lynch?

[Mathdino]

So we seriously have an argument based on math we should randomly lynch?

How much do you like math and/or programming? I don't know you at all

I've seen you in other games and have wondered what would happen if you, me, and mathcam ended up in the same game together.

[MathBlade]

So we seriously have an argument based on math we should randomly lynch?

How much do you like math and/or programming? I don't know you at all

I've seen you in other games and have wondered what would happen if you, me, and mathcam ended up in the same game together.

I have a BA in math and I work as a computer programmer.

I don’t know who Mathcam

[Toranaga]

Which ones other than yours?

Also read sheep's 253.

sheep, stop pagetopping, it hides the pagebottom content. I've often missed what you're even posting.

you guys, redflavor hydra and I think momo hydra

different layers of towntells

[MathBlade]

Had fun presenting at a math conference but I choked.

[MathBlade]

So the argument?

[Mathdino]

I have a BA in math and I work as a computer programmer.

I don’t know who Mathcam

K cool.

Read my ISO. Or skim it. You'll probably get the point faster than others. Stop reading once you get it.

I also coded the setup somewhere so Ctrl+F for "coded". (did this to prove to non-believers that my idea was correct and pro-town)

Random lynch creates a 60% winrate.

Random lynch with 1 town lover-pair confirmed creates a 70% winrate.

We're not gonna actually random lynch cuz literally no one but me wants that, but if we agree to sheep one lover-pair, they can just randomly Kingmake.

The actual winrate is like less 36% or some shit. I forget. Check the wiki for Polygamist Mafia, I basically stole the idea from there.

[Mathdino]

Lol I have an AS in Physics and I teach math, Scratch, Java, and Python to ES, MS, and HS

[MathBlade]

Yeah well I think there’s a logical fallacy imho that random lynching doesn’t address besides the fact it isn’t a game.

I would rather lose having fun then “win” doing nothing too.

[sheepsaysmeep]

yo

[Mathdino]

K so you're one of those players. Damn.

Well, we honestly probably just caught scum early with cy/Lalendra, because the fact that the lynch hasn't been pushed through already is insanely suspicious.

[Mathdino]

yo im the one rolling

I'm sorry, but I don't care if Jack the Ripper himself is coming back from the dead and rolling. I just want to play mafia not Economics Wonderland

One day, I'll mod a game called Economics Wonderland, and it'll be amazing.

[sheepsaysmeep]

or can we like
lynch diamond

[MathBlade]

Another application of the law of averages is a belief that a sample's behaviour must line up with the expected value based on population statistics. For example, suppose a fair coin is flipped 100 times. Using the law of averages, one might predict that there will be 50 heads and 50 tails. While this is the single most likely outcome, there is only an 8% chance of it occurring. Predictions based on the law of averages are even less useful if the sample does not reflect the population.

So expecting this scenario to match a win because randomness says the most likely thing is a win is bad. (I am assuming if you’ve coded it like you said I will assume the math is correct for argument)

So let’s play mafia

[sheepsaysmeep]

yo im the one rolling

I'm sorry, but I don't care if Jack the Ripper himself is coming back from the dead and rolling. I just want to play mafia not Economics Wonderland

One day, I'll mod a game called Economics Wonderland, and it'll be amazing.

/prein

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm a software engineer with a degree in computer science and I am not getting into the math debate again until post game. I think that it's entirely possible to scumhunt using our standard scumhunting tools - holding players accountable for their votes, looking at associations/vote count analysis, and getting players reads.

Which is why posts from my partner like this

All my reads are gut

make me cry.

I'm sure actually rolling a die and voting proven randomly is actually a modkill but I wasn't able to find it when I was looking for it otherwise that is the first thing I would have said. However, the way the 'random' roll came out was entirely fabricated - Toraslot and Dino both townread each other, and Toraslot (sheep) picked Cy for a lynch. Tora/Dino/yourslot hopped on the wagon, Sheep jumped off, and Red hopped on.

Up until now the only players who have been actively participating are Dino, Diamond and myself, with Sheep/Tora/Red just sheeping other players, and Cy/Lal basically doing nothing except existing. There's probably more but it's only 20 pages, take half an hour and you'll be caught up. I'd love to get another voice in here even if it is in a slot I'm scumreading X__X

[MathBlade]

Where it is helpful for is if mod confirmed information is in a subset whether to Lynch in or out of that subset. That’s where the randomness helps imho.

Anywho reading up.

Does anyone have an argument?

[Lalendra]

My strategy relies on the fact that scumhunting is impossible with this setup, but limited townhunting is possible.

People say this all the time and i will never understand it. Aren't they just two sides of the same coin?

[sheepsaysmeep]

there was a slip kind of noted last page btw