Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[yessiree]

VC 2.3

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Mathdino (2) -

Srceenplay, UnabombaH

Kop (2) -

Mathdino, Hawk

Srceenplay (2) -

havingfitz, momo

sheepsaysmeep (1) -

Impede

RedFlavor (1) -

Kop

Not voting

- RedFlavor, sheepsaysmeep

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-01-23 20:00:00)

Note: RedFlavor is being replaced.

[Mathdino]

Wait fuck we're in potential MyLo if there are 3 mafia and 1 SK. What we need is a way of finding out, without the lone power role just outing themselves.

We also need PoE. I think a partial massclaim is in order. We only need one claim to definitively prove the 1T theory.

If you are any of the following roles, please ONLY ONE OF YOU (ideally the scummiest) claim now so we know:

1-shot Tracker
1-shot Commuter
Vengeful
Vigilante
Gunsmith

My logic is that 5 PRs remaining MUST be distributed among Investigation, Protection, Hiding, Killing, and Flavour Cop. Since we already have a dead investigation, one of these categories MUST have doubles by Pigeonhole Principle.

I obviously claim none of those or I would've said something by now.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP:

Add Tracker to the end of that list

. A50 being dead means a 2nd tracker is a doppelganger.

[Mathdino]

i'm really not at the top of my game in this game

We're not in MyLo because we lynched scum. I was doing the math as if we'd lynched town.

Still, if we lynch town today that puts us in 6v2v1 and 2 town deaths creates a 4v2v1 LyLo in which we're forced to try to hit the SK, which is gross. I think it's important to know what setup we're playing.

[Hawk]

i'm really not at the top of my game in this game

We're not in MyLo because we lynched scum. I was doing the math as if we'd lynched town.

Still, if we lynch town today that puts us in 6v2v1 and 2 town deaths creates a 4v2v1 LyLo in which we're forced to try to hit the SK, which is gross. I think it's important to know what setup we're playing.

Double check your Math again... and then tell me if you're sure were in 6v2v1 lylo

[Hawk]

i'm really not at the top of my game in this game

We're not in MyLo because we lynched scum. I was doing the math as if we'd lynched town.

Still, if we lynch town today that puts us in 6v2v1 and 2 town deaths creates a 4v2v1 LyLo in which we're forced to try to hit the SK, which is gross. I think it's important to know what setup we're playing.

Double check your Math again... and then tell me if you're sure were in 6v2v1

into potential

lylo

[Hawk]

gosh damn stupid phone let me finish my post before...

ugh anyway EBWOP

[Mathdino]

No yeah we're currently in 7v2v1, I fucked up, that's not LyLo/MyLo at all.

That said I still believe anyone with a role in that list should claim.

It's extremely important to remaining scumhunting to know if the mafia team has 3 members or 2.

If it has 3, and we have 5 town PRs remaining, this game might be breakable by massclaim.

Edit: Town lynch today results in LyLo. That much is clear.

[Hawk]

Funny feeling Math is either scum or should really stop trying to do math and setup spec.

[Hawk]

Anyone else see the funny conclusion math continues to make despite 3 other fuck ups on the setup speculation?

[Mathdino]

I only started to make that conclusion due correcting the original fuckup.

I originally thought 1T, 3T, and 5T were the possible setups. 3T was the reasonable assumption in that case. I was thinking about massclaim but I figured there would be numerous setups that wouldn't be breakable and there is a scum strategy that could get around it (obviously not telling).

Impede corrected me to 1T and 5T.

I need to know whether we have 2 mafia left or 1 mafia. I don't intend to massclaim right now. It's a mass "Claim one of the roles in that list, or not one of the roles in that list". Doesn't even have to be specific.

If someone is one of those roles, we're in 1T with 2 mafia and 1 SK.

If NO ONE is one of those roles, I'll redo the calculations, but it almost certainly puts us in 5T with 1 mafia and 1 SK.

I've been through the wringer in the open queue for people calling my strategies rolefishing. You don't know me if you think I'd ever suggest a claiming strategy that I couldn't defend, and isn't strictly beneficial to town. It's an Open, anyone can poke holes in my logic.

[Mathdino]

Also keep in mind mafia now roughly knows our setup anyway.

This fact may put some earlier D1 interactions/discussions in a different light. Not saying more for now.

At the very least it's certain that

Vigilantes should claim

.

[Hawk]

Actually nah VOTE: Math Dino

Role fishing. Calling for a PR to claim in attempt to sort the setup. Implies he is VT or would claim VT if ran up.

Too much information. Messes up a conceivable amount of times with the setup spec but one thing remains consistent is that we are xv2v1. TTTTT is still a potential at a 50% rate. If Math is VT then he should lean even more heavily that we are TTTTT which only has 2 mafia and an SK. Making our current setup 8v1v1. But Math heavily believes we are 7v2v1.

Scum leader? Maybe... I don't like Screenplay either but as a scum player replacing in attempting to come in stand firm and vote towards the most widely townread player and call him scumleader?

someone correct me if I'm seeing things but this just feels right all of a sudden.

Pedit:.... Well you addressed my concern you were neglecting that 5t is 8v1v1.... but still :/

[yessiree]

AnonymousGhost replaces RedFlavor. Welcome!

[AnonymousGhost]

Catching up + multitasking.

Prefers she/her pronouns. Please and thank you.

[Mathdino]

First of all, I have, at no point, implied I'm VT. I have no idea where you're getting that from at all.

I'm surprised you see no benefit in knowing if we have 2 mafia or 1 mafia. If you don't see the benefit, I'm surprised you don't see how I would see such a benefit.

Too much information. Messes up a conceivable amount of times with the setup spec but one thing remains consistent is that we are xv2v1. TTTTT is still a potential at a 50% rate. If Math is VT then he should lean even more heavily that we are TTTTT which only has 2 mafia and an SK. Making our current setup 8v1v1. But Math heavily believes we are 7v2v1.

This is ridiculous.

1. I have specific reasons, right now, to be wary of 7v2v1 that I will literally explain to you in ~8 hours. fitz will be able to confirm. I honestly kind of hate SKs.

2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.

3. Please quote the sections where you think I believe we are in 7v2v1. I did the extra "If you are a PR" calculations to help further inform people who aren't gonna be able to their own math.

4. And please explain exactly why you think my strategy hurts town.

5. As a final note, if I were VT, I would do more than a couple things to lowkey imply I'm a PR to WIFOM the NK, as I'm obviously a NKable person. Furthermore, if I were a PR, I'd talk about or make it look like I'm WIFOMing the NK to further WIFOM the NK. You don't know what I am. I've breadcrumbed my specific role already, and I guarantee with my massive ISO neither you or scum is gonna be able to find it. But yeah, I've prepped for this.

Every time in Open Games. "MATH IS SCUM FOR A STRATEGY THAT MAKES ME FEEL ICKY" without addressing the strategy. Love it.

[Hawk]

i'm really not at the top of my game in this game

We're not in MyLo because we lynched scum. I was doing the math as if we'd lynched town.

Still, if we lynch town today that puts us in 6v2v1 and 2 town deaths creates a 4v2v1 LyLo in which we're forced to try to hit the SK, which is gross. I think it's important to know what setup we're playing.

No yeah we're currently in 7v2v1, I fucked up, that's not LyLo/MyLo at all.

That said I still believe anyone with a role in that list should claim.

It's extremely important to remaining scumhunting to know if the mafia team has 3 members or 2.

If it has 3, and we have 5 town PRs remaining, this game might be breakable by massclaim.

Edit: Town lynch today results in LyLo. That much is clear.

Literally your last two corrections to your assumptions are quoting only we are in xv2v1 and ignoring xv1v1 you made an assumption I even mentioned for you to double check your math. You did. And have chosen to post a lot of "content" asking for certain claims to be made under scrutiny of us being under 1t and not 5t.

It fishes people who don't have a solid grasp of the setup or possible setups into admitting they may or may not have a roll. If you are the sole other mafia member calling for any amount of claiming under the premise we are in xv2v1 gives you a called shot and if you have one partner left you know that there is at least one of the roles you mentioned and you call it forward and if you manage to get lucky and pull an investigative (basically all of the ones you listed) and we are under 1t your JOAT can take a strongarm shot through protective rendering our newly claimed Town investigative more moot while waiting yourself up well enough as town leader.

Also every preface of call out Mathdino for strategy is straight misreping. :p

[Mathdino]

Literally your last two corrections to your assumptions are quoting only we are in xv2v1 and ignoring xv1v1 you made an assumption I even mentioned for you to double check your math. You did. And have chosen to post a lot of "content" asking for certain claims to be made under scrutiny of us being under 1t and not 5t.

1. Oh haha. That's gonna leave a mark. Deserves an explanation. Yeah I mean the best response to that that I have is that I wouldn't scumslip like that as scum. I've faked townslips before. Most of the time, I fake and am hyperaware of slips in relation to the possible categories I could be in. So for example, right now, since I could be either VT or PR to scum, I'm faking the potential to be either. As scum, because I could be either town or scum to town, I fake townslips. My towngame is, admittedly, hugely overreliant on slips, which is ironic, because I've only ever "scumslipped" as town. My 2nd game I got mislynched for constantly assuming 3 scum to everyone.

So my argument is that I'm hyperaware of slips constantly as long as they're relevant to me, and I'm not concerned with avoiding scumslips as town. So the only reason I would do such a thing like that as scum is to try to gain towncred for it by being like "ACTUALLY ITS A TOWNSLIP". It's up to you whether that's what I'm doing.

The thought progression that led to it:
In 1151 just by talking about it, I started getting massively paranoid of the 3 mafia 1 SK setup. Clock is ticking for my ability to fully explain where my paranoia suddenly came from. If anyone still cares, I will explain that. And at the time (thinking there were potentially 3 mafia alive), had anyone claimed one of the roles on my list, I'd start giving Impede shit for trying to policy lynch someone in MyLo.

When I corrected myself in 1153, I was talking about the worst case scenario (because I often start tunneling the worst case scenario). I realised, however, that we can actually afford a mislynch maybe, so I made a mental note to not give Impede shit for that. Note at the end of my post I continued with my idea of wanting to know if we were actually in this bad scenario.

You asked me in 1155 to double check my math. I assume this is because you were checking for a scumslip. At the very least if I do get lynched for this (or, more likely, shot by the SK), this clears you as town, which is fantastic for my PoE VCA.

When I read it (in 1157), I thought you completely misunderstood my post (by reading too fast) and thought I was suggesting we have 6 townies alive

under that bad scenario

. I clarified with "No yeah we're

currently

in 7v2v1", assuming you would understand that I meant we'd have 6 townies alive

after a mislynch

. When I said I fucked up, I didn't mean I fucked up by saying 6v2v1 (as that's after mislynch), I was trying to clarify to you what the point of my correction was in 1153. You'll see again that I'm very interested to know how many mafia we have left.

Responding to strategy in a sec.

[AnonymousGhost]

@Math

You're currently present and I'm clueless.

Can you explain where you get your numbers in 1157 (7v2v1)? Specifically the # of mafia.

[sheepsaysmeep]

there are 3 mafia and one is dead

[AnonymousGhost]

What makes us think we had 3 scum to begin with?

[sheepsaysmeep]

look at the setup

[sheepsaysmeep]

also we have sk cause the second kill went unclaimed

[AnonymousGhost]

@sheep

I did and I still don't understand.

[sheepsaysmeep]

oh im stupid
i cant read lmao
yeah idk why he assumes there are 2 maf either