Open 704: Switch (Game Over)


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Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: Sauce

sheeping not_mafia
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Post Post #17 (isolation #1) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:43 am

Post by Mathdino »

Thinking about the setup. Doc's dead, so mafia/SK will kill every night.

Assume we mislynch someone D1. Then going into the night we're 7v3v1. If mafia and SK both kill townies, we're 5v3v1 LyLo-ish. At that point even if we lynch mafia (5v2v1), mafia and SK could both hit town and create 3v2v1 which is nearly unwinnable. I'm assuming the vig doesn't get anyone.

So this sucks. Basically means we can't afford a mislynch at all because it'll be hilariously difficult to get a lynch later.
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Post Post #23 (isolation #2) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:17 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm more discouraging policy lynches, which I'm usually significantly more okay with.

Not_Mafia is a lolhammerer with a history of losing games for town (or hiding behind lolhammers as scum) so we should also avoid L-1ing people.
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Post Post #26 (isolation #3) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

Also longwinded overthinking posts without any real intent are practically my MO :P

Not_Mafia is unreadable
Fitz seems good
Legit weird about maxous not placing a vote
Elmo null
Lalendra strongest townread
Bins null-scum, I've been doing some meta on her D1s and this may change
Sauce null-town
mutant null-scum, not OMGUS

inb4 look at dino trying too hard coming up with page 1 reads list
UNVOTE: Sauce
VOTE: Elmo

Let's see what happens.

PEdit: Yeah I usually like to policy lynch people with a meta of fucking over town or being useless.
And yeah I think he would and has.
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Post Post #28 (isolation #4) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:47 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 27, Lalendra wrote:Why did you choose to vote Elmo, who you have as null, instead of Mutant, who appears to be your strongest scumread (given that you acknowledge your read on Bins could change)?
Because I'm more interested in sorting Elmo than I am in OMGUS voting/1v1ing a guy, when that scumread could just be me being irrational. Elmo is null because one post reads town and one post reads scum. I wanna flesh that shit out more.
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Post Post #33 (isolation #5) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 29, mutantdevle wrote:Why do you scum read me? I'm just a pretty little flower over here minding my own business.
In post 21, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 8, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:VOTE: mutantdevle
No walls from you kthx
Rude.

VOTE: mathdino

Eww, maths. But awesome, dinosaurs. Ugh I'm so god damn conflicted.
The tone in both of these posts feels really bad. Robotic and shit. Can someone who's played with mutant before read this for me?
In post 31, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:So you vote me because of a null read.

So why your vote on me and not mafia who is unreadable is that for the whole game or just at the start?
Yep pretty much. I got a response from you and a convo started, which I count as a successful vote.

Not_Mafia is unreadable for the whole game, imo. I've done a shitton of meta on him at this point. The best tell I can see is that he's slightly more aggressive as scum when people think he's scum. But I'm not a great tonereader. If it wasn't dangerous, I'd start off with a policy lynch suggestion, but as it is I'm just hoping someone else can read him late game.

UNVOTE: Elmo
VOTE: mutantdevle
Why the unvote? Got any preliminary reads?
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Post Post #36 (isolation #6) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:07 am

Post by Mathdino »

What does you asking about what Chip Butty asking about what that line of inquiry has to do with scum hunting has to do with scumhunting have to do with scumhunting?
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Post Post #39 (isolation #7) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:11 am

Post by Mathdino »

What does (you asking about [Chip Butty asking about {havingfitz asking about (me talking about [policy lynches])}]) have to do with scumhunting?

I wish I were being ironic but I can't tell if you're being ironic lol
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Post Post #41 (isolation #8) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:16 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh okay you were being ironic carry on then

If you were being serious I'd have been like "wtf Chip's question was perfectly reasonable"
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Post Post #49 (isolation #9) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:54 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 48, Bins wrote:
In post 26, Mathdino wrote:Bins null-scum, I've been doing some meta on her D1s and this may change
Is this real? You claim to have meta from one post?
Your entrance made my scumdar go off (felt forced) so I was meta-ing your RVS votes. Some people have consistently scummy entrances. I don't think you're one of those people, so read hasn't really changed so whatever.
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Post Post #58 (isolation #10) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:01 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 53, havingfitz wrote:I've never been in a game where someone was worried about policy lynches right from the start. It struck me as odd and I wanted more detail. More oddness in the response could lead to finding scum. Aka scumhunting. How is that not obvious to you?
This is a good answer.

Also I just got some good nostalgia reading over all the times I've suggested policy lynching annoying players. :lol:
In post 55, Raya36 wrote:
In post 31, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:So you vote me because of a null read.

So why your vote on me and not mafia who is unreadable is that for the whole game or just at the start?
Don't like this responce to being voted.
I like you but all your reads except me are backwards. What about the response is weird?
In post 56, Bins wrote:Not feeling mutant scum.
Math is probably not scum as well considering the stubbornness. I find it funny because my RVS votes in games with N_M are pretty consistent.

VOTE: Elmo
This feels opportunistic. I do, however, agree that the mutant wagon feels like mislynch bait.

UNVOTE: mutant
I could also see it being scum driven.

VOTE: Bins
Sheep me, let's go
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Post Post #65 (isolation #11) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:05 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 63, Raya36 wrote:How are my other reads backwards? I have Chip as a townlean and Lalendra as null. (Also have Elmo as null leaning scum.) Can you explain your strong townread on Lalendra? Also what are your thoughts on Chip and Elmo?
I love your reasoning on Elmo from a rhetorical standpoint but I think defenciveness is an overused scumtell, especially on experienced players. You're right that Elmo had no reason to be defencive about my vote. Which is why I don't think it was defenciveness, more confused flailing attempted scumhunting. The meta on this site is, in my experience, to just ignore early votes on you if you don't want to be scumread.
In post 8, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:VOTE: mutantdevle
No walls from you kthx
In post 19, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Like Fitz just said though. Let's say the big takes a shot and misses. You then have what a 75% chance of nailing scum and then granted if I did quick math it's lylo but the odds are very heavily in towns favor for an actual win of the game.
In post 47, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Your Meta is to be a nit picky with your vote. And you like walls.
1st post reads town on gut. 2nd post reads scum because it's like it's talking to the town being like "Hey it's not unfair, you guys have a chance". 3rd post is ancillarily helpful in an unfortunately low effort way. At the very least I can appreciate the utility of the Elmo wagon pressuring her to actually do something, but her response leans town.

Lalendra's actions all seem focused around getting scum. She pressures me and gets me to explain myself more instead of pouncing on me, then announces the results of that pressure.

Chip's "what does this have to do with scumhunting?" question was reasonable but the "are you trying to look busy????" is classic suspicion-throwing in the form of asking dumb questions that amount to "are you scum using [x] strategy?" which everyone will always answer 'no' to.

Almost50, mutant, Elmo, Not_Mafia
, sheep me, let's get a good wagon going.

I like Raya as a player (I read through your Newbie scum game with nancy, respect for that) but I'm getting a lot of scum motivation from that post. N_M's vote is good but I think better served on Bins.
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Post Post #67 (isolation #12) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:32 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 66, mutantdevle wrote:Why? The game is fresh and not really much has happened. I don't get why you'd want a wagon on Bins, any particular reason? I don't really see anything wrong with her posts, or anything at all for that matter. So if this wagon is simply just to apply pressure to her to make her talk more then I can get on board with that. If there's some other reason you are voting for her though then I'd love to hear it. However typically, I don't tend to sheep.
Her Elmo wagon is shit, and yes more pressure is good; Bins is hard to read exactly because of her low amount of content.

I know you're apparently finicky with your vote (well I only know that from what Elmo said) but more wagoning is great for later analysis.

Alternatively, if you vote Raya I'll sheep you on that. But I think Bins is a better wagon.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #13) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:40 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 68, Sauce wrote:
In post 67, Mathdino wrote:But I think Bins is a better wagon
.. because you think the formation of the wagon she contributed to on page 2 is lynch bait.
read my ISO again if you have to

then read the whole thread again because I wanna know your reads
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Post Post #80 (isolation #14) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:20 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 71, Sauce wrote:I mean .. I'm getting confused as a consequence of reading what you're apparently thinking, Dinomath. That's why I'm not making any sense anymore. It's obviously your fault I'm mixing up Bins with Elmo. How can a two-vote wagon on page 2 be lynch bait? How does one think like that?
In post 74, Sauce wrote:Anyway the mutantdevle is a wagon I imagine scum would join at the time Maxous did, so I like my vote there.
You kind of answered my question for me. Mutant was a 3 vote wagon that feels too easy. Plus I got what I wanted out of mutant and think he's leaning town.
Elmo is also lynchbait in general according to Almost50 but that is not what I meant. The Elmo votes are just straight up bad.
Hence my vote on Bins. Your vote on maxous is fair I guess.
In post 75, Almost50 wrote:Do I know you?! Because I only sheep players I have played with before (and yet NOT everyone I played with is worth sheeping).
Nah we've never played before. I'm not Mathblade.
In post 76, Almost50 wrote:Elmo is a vote magnet. I see people voting there all the time (I hope my memory isn't playing tricks on me and that it IS Elmo that seemed to attract inexplicable votes in previous games).

Both Bins & Elmo are still total nulls for me.
In post 77, Almost50 wrote:So, Bins and Raya for you. At least we are starting to get some reads.

Bins I have more experience with, so maybe I will get a better read there given more time.
Lol I posted reads a couple pages ago. I'll do another reads list though.
Shouldn't Bins be aware Elmo is a vote magnet and thus understand that is a bad place to put votes? I note opportunism because I expect better reads from Bins.
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Post Post #82 (isolation #15) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:29 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 78, Raya36 wrote:Looking this over again I noticed the use of the word "you" in 19 is a bit odd. Maybe I'm nitpicking over it not being "we". What do you think?
Yeah that's exactly what I meant by that. Felt like a minor scumslip. Discounting it in favour of later posts though.

And yeah I meant your last post by "that post" seeming to have scum motivation.
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Post Post #87 (isolation #16) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 81, Bins wrote:I'm confused. Why would I be aware of this? Why would you expect good reads of me? All of these things lead me to believe you aren't actually doing meta, lol. I agreed that I didn't like Elmo's reaction and don't have another big scumread.
I assume you have experience. If you were relatively new I wouldn't have minded the Elmo vote, but like I said defenciveness is a bad scumtell. You're right, I'm not doing meta on your quality as a scumhunter; I was only meta-ing your RVS votes and ISOing your scumgames. Sorry if that was unclear. My vote on you has very little to do with meta.

Let's talk more, might help. Do you have any townreads? What do you think of Maxous and his vote on you?

PEdit:
@Raya:

1. You talking about Elmo seems circular, like you're trying to talk yourself into suspecting her. Scum motivation would be knowing she's town but still trying to come up with an argument.
2. You're a charismatic/generally helpful player. Your questions to me read like scum trying to shoot the breeze with town suspecting her. It reads to me like how I'd play scum, honestly.

PEdit:
@Bins:

You ninja'd my question on Maxous. Do you wanna vote Maxous instead?
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Post Post #95 (isolation #17) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 93, Raya36 wrote:UNVOTE: Elmo

So we are down two town rn so there are 12 in the game total. There are three scum in the game and one sk which makes 8v3v1. Rn we have a 25% chance of hitting scum. So if we mislynch, scum get a kill, sk gets a kill and hits a townie, and vig misses we are now down 4 more townies. We'll have 8 total players 3 of which are scum and 1 is sk. We would be in a 4v3v1 situation. Lylo and a 50% chance of hitting anyone but town. About a 38% chance of hitting scum.
Did I do the same calculations as you?
Your Math is roughly correct but keep in mind lynches aren't random, and this hurts town. The very presence of scumpartner reduces the chances of a scum lynch. Plus, in 4v3v1, we've essentially already lost. Lynching SK gives mafia majority, and lynching mafia allows both to hit 2 more town. That all said, this is largely game irrelevant now.

Your unvote in response to me pushing the shittiness of the Elmo wagon, without putting your vote somewhere else, doesn't really help your case tbh.
In post 94, Bins wrote:I don't play Mafia much anymore. Haven't in like four months and I take quite long breaks. I've never played with Elmo either, so I don't know that she's lynch bait, but I didn't see the one post coming from town. I know defensiveness isn't a scumtell, I'm a lot more defensive as town, but I got a bad gut feel from the reaction. Maxous' vote on me was a lot worse than your vote on me and I haven't liked their posts so far.

I only got good feels from mutant, you [both have been stated] and I have good feels about Lalendra's first few posts and maybe Fitz just because of similarity of what he felt when I felt it when people struck me as town.

I expect SK to play low or just state obvious things. I feel because we're down in numbers looking for SK tells is a priority :nerd: to eliminate another NK.
These are good thoughts. I'm sad because I was excited to play a game with Bins but I'm still picking up on scum motivation here :(

See, I agree that Maxous's vote wasn't great. I agree on good feels from mutant/Lalendra. I could maybe agree on Fitz.

But it's really rich to me that you're openly SK-hunting rather than mafia-hunting. I didn't even ask about that and you're jumping to the idea that SK is a bigger threat than mafia.

This is a scumslip.

My vote stands. Raya if you want a good place to park your vote, try here.
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Post Post #98 (isolation #18) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:04 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 97, Bins wrote:Also, I haven't made the distinction that Maxous or Elmo are more likely SK or Mafia. Where have you gotten the idea that I'm avoiding scumhunting? I'm not going to turn over to someone else even if I think that they are. You're completely misunderstanding what my motivation is here.
Any multiball setup or SK setup requires scumhunting from everyone involved. Both teams want to lynch the other. This creates the unfortunate side effect that everyone ROUGHLY believes their own reads. I believe your reads have some merit, and I believe you believe they do.

I know you haven't made that distinction; calling them both SK would be a hilariously major slip.

My point is that SK hunting is, for town, idiotic compared to mafiahunting. If we lynch SK, we're at 10p 3v7 approximately mountainous mafia with 2 PRs that will likely get switched off once SK is dead. That's assuming we can even lynch the SK; because SK is as motivated as town to actively look for associative tells, is just as low-information as town, and only has the wincon to not get themselves lynched, SK is going to look townier than mafia. Hunting for the SK makes us more likely to mislynch town.

So there's very clear motivation here. You want to scumhunt, but you're doing so from a (I believe) high information perspective that only really requires you to hunt for the SK.

I'm not gonna harp too hard on pre-flip associatives but as long as I'm still scumreading Bins, I believe her current townreads are actually town. To a lesser extent I believe her scumreads are also town (or at least aren't mafia).
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Post Post #107 (isolation #19) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:34 am

Post by Mathdino »

Well at least Bins is confirmed for not being SK.

@Bins:
Gonna be honest, I'm tuning out you defending yourself, because everyone is gonna say what it takes to not get themselves lynched. Help town by doing something else. Come up with more reads. I'll switch votes if I see a better lynch.
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Post Post #111 (isolation #20) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 109, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:.....

I really cant believe this.

VOTE: Mutantdevle
I know you can do better than this, lol.

Do you think mutant is SK? If so, fair I guess, but not really our priority.

Give me more reads.

PEdit: This theory discussion is going nowhere. Focus on scum motivation, not on ego-defending your own logic.
I'm reminded of my only scumgame, in which I filled up 2 pages with my scumpartner screaming at each other over setup spec.
Point is this is all irrelevant unless someone literally claims mafia or SK. Game's fairly inactive so cluttering the thread up with stats is anti-town.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #21) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:53 am

Post by Mathdino »

Just another PSA to ignore what people say in response to being scumread because that's useless to reading them. There's a mastin article on this but idc enough to find it.

Do something else. I specifically want
reads on Raya, Maxous, and Sauce
.

PEdit: Yeah I could definitely see mutant being SK but I don't really care.
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Post Post #119 (isolation #22) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:59 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 1, Equinox wrote:Each Night, you may choose one person to kill, and you may reverse up to three of the mafia's switches. This will trigger the opposite outcome of how the mafia left a switch (e.g., if the mafia left a switch OFF, then you will switch it ON and thereby activate that town role). On Night 0, you must choose one of two available immunities: immunity from Night kills by the mafia, or immunity from cop investigations and Night kills by the town vigilante.
3 a night, otherwise it would be 3-shot Switch SK.

I'm trying to get out of this setup-centred back-and-forth because it's not going to be an easy discussion to break into for everyone else.

PEdit: I agree, Almost50 is a top townread.
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Post Post #126 (isolation #23) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:59 am

Post by Mathdino »

Reads list (Keep in mind I'm using scumhunting techniques since I don't know how to hunt SKs and we can probably just do that later)
(so top means not mafia and bottom means mafia):
___________________________

Almost50
: I see 0 anti-town motivation in his posts other than trying super hard to look town. This could change D2 but for now he's off my lynch table.

Lalendra
: Apparent genuine efforts to scumhunt. Not many posts though and this will change if she just takes the free townread.
___________________________

Elmo
: Possibly scum getting bussed but otherwise hard for me to see as scum. Most likely town pending today's flip.

mutant
: Shit wagon, mislynch bait, and needs to participate more, but town.

Maxous
: Tied with mutant. Making more of an effort to create a townbloc than to push lynches. I'm kind of into it.
___________________________

Sauce: Was reading null-scum but I like post so I guess null-town?

Chip Butty: Lol a single post. Null.
___________________________

havingfitz
: Null-scum. I liked him at first but interactions rub me the wrong way.

Raya
: Super scummy, seems to be doing everything to make me think she's not. Elmo wagon was opportunistic and hopping off the Elmo wagon when I called her out was equally bad.

Bins
: I don't see this changing anytime soon, but I'm willing to work with her to collect reads/wagon people.
___________________________

Not_Mafia: Unfuckingreadable, I give up, someone else read him lategame.
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Post Post #132 (isolation #24) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 130, Maxous wrote:he ignored giving any reads or analysis and popped in just to talk theory.
This is experience-indicative more than it is alignment-indicative. I notice you've only played a single newbie game. That is the kind of shit discussion derails into (I think the same is true of the Open queue). New logical types feel like they're the hotshots that can prove how much mafia theory they know and can apply.

I don't think I've ever seen scum openly solely setup spec as a way to avoid actual scumhunting.

But also, whatever, if more people suspect him he'll probably produce real content so carry on.
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Post Post #139 (isolation #25) » Sun Dec 24, 2017 6:01 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 134, Chip Butty wrote:If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.
Oh I agree with this. Leashing the SK is dangerous. But if I had a choice between lynching a confirmed SK and a confirmed mafia, I'd choose mafia (although keep in mind mafia often claims SK to survive longer).

The problem is that SK hunting is significantly harder than mafiahunting because their lack of information/association makes them more similar to town. So I'm very much against lynching someone today because they might be SK. I'd rather lynch people who drop mafia tells.

Raya and Bins are still giving me the heeby-jeebies. I'd like a flip on one of them to confirm this.

Chip seems townish but I'm getting a slight feel of lowkey bussing.

MORE VOTES, PEOPLE. This game is slow af.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #26) » Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:03 am

Post by Mathdino »

mutant is VI-esque but you should get your votes off him. I don't believe his blatant misunderstanding of the setup is intentional. This is a townslip.

mutant, talk to me about Bins and Raya. I obviously disagree with you so you should explain where you're at in reading them as town.
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Post Post #149 (isolation #27) » Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:05 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 144, Almost50 wrote:Ok, guys. Fine. I get it. I'm going to be shot by the Mafia sooner than later and the doctor is already dead so I will accept my fate. Thank you.

Geez! It was never my intention to be the very top TR on each and every readlist. :facepalm:
Between you, me, and just PR hunting it'll probably depend on whose reads are more accurate.

Spoiler: setup stuff, ignore if you don't wanna keep talking setup
In post 145, mutantdevle wrote:Sorry, but what exactly am I misunderstanding?
Mafia does not have a vig. Each mafia member has the ability to switch off one town PR (as opposed to killing). The SK has the ability to switch on/off as many PRs as they want. Mafia/SK have no additional abilities beyond a factional NK and the switch. Once there's one mafia member left, they basically can't switch if they want to continue to NK.

If the SK claimed SK openly and we kept them alive, their optimal play would just be to say exactly who they're switching off so mafia can coordinate. If we know for sure who SK is, we should lynch them no matter what.

tl;dr read the setup again so we can get back to the game

In post 145, mutantdevle wrote:Bins: She casually mentions her reads which is always useful for reading her and is engaging in conversation more so than most. I think her confusion with the switching mechanic is fair enough and not something that is scummy. Her only scummy action is how she thought we should be prioritising finding the SK. To me though, that looks like a genuine thought spawned by the logic that 1 less night kill = better for town. Obviously, this logic has since been proven to be flawed due to the SK additional switch abilities but Bins has stated she didn't recognise that the SK had such a strong power which I believe to be the truth on her part. I do recognise the possibility that she is faking the confusion as a way of getting out of such a scum slip which is why she is a town lean for me rather than a town read.

Raya: Despite not saying a lot, the posts she does have seem of good quality to me. She is also scum hunting by asking a few question here and there as well as making criticisms of other's comments. Obviously, she isn't pushing anyone too much but I figure that's understandable at this stage in the game. Finally, I really don't see how she has done anything scummy at all; all of her posts feel genuine to me.
Bins: Notice that she only started contributing to the conversation after I got people to pressure her. I actually agree that her confusion is genuine, but that's not alignment indicative.

Raya: Post quality is non-alignment indicative. Raya is a good player and is entirely capable of asking questions as scum lol.

You're surface level scumhunting. Both your scumreads are people who, by nature, low-effort post. You should be looking at motivation behind posts, not quality as a player.

Asking questions of people and talking a lot without a real goal in mind is scummy (this is actually why people are scumreading you, but I don't think you're doing it for scummy reasons). It makes you look like you're town because you're contributing, but it absolves you of responsibility for bad wagons. Also allows you to test the waters for possible lynches, waiting for others to make the big pushes so you can sheep them later. This is scum motivation, and I don't think is consistent with a Raya trying to solve the game.

When it comes to Bins, you've again provided evidence she's a good player, but not evidence that her game is inconsistent with scum. A townread is when you find it hard to believe someone is scum. A scumread is when you find it hard to believe someone is town.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #28) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:02 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 150, mutantdevle wrote: Well, I'm completely fucking stupid... I thought the scum had those PRs but also had the ability to change the switch. Hence, if they wanted to switch then they cannot use their ability, and if they want to use their ability, they cannot perform the night kill. So the SK isn't as powerful as I thought and eliminating them will reduce the number of night kills by 1. My mistake.
Please respond to the other part of my post about Raya and Bins.
In post 160, Bins wrote:Actually, I started contributing to the game after my first post. You realize you have been pressuring me since RVS?
Eh I called you null-scum during RVS as a throwaway read, and following that, the majority of your posts have been engaging me in a discussion I've been pretty clear I'm not super interested in xD.

I actually think this is a point against Bins so I'll explain:
was initial random vote.
was questioning my read on her.
was a mutant townread, a me townread (continuing to engage me), and a Elmo scumread.
is AGAIN trying to defend against my 2 player wagon against her.
, Maxous scumread.
Then, hilariously, , , , , , and to some extent the 5 posts of setup discussion that are most of the rest of her ISO, are all continuing to centre her game experience around my pressure on her.

This is a massive majority. I've said multiple times that I'm not interested in rebuttals/defences because that's not what's going to change my read. Scummy scum tends to try to act less scummy when pressured, big surprise. What I didn't expect is for Bins to act MORE scummy by seriously ramping up her activity/posting effort just to keep fighting me.

@Bins:
The cases I make on you are directed at other players, not you. I don't know what you expect or want out of responding to them all the time, and I certainly don't see how this helps town; you literally have 2 votes on you. Try to ignore that for now and focus your energy on something productive. Like I said, I'd rather work with you/your reads.
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Post Post #164 (isolation #29) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:54 am

Post by Mathdino »

Fair enough, I'm satisfied.

Can you give a reads list again (updated if any updates are applicable) and sell me on your scumreads? Your nullreads (fitz, Max, Chip, Elmo) have posted since then I think. Any thoughts on them?
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Post Post #166 (isolation #30) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 165, mutantdevle wrote:@mathdino, mind pointing out in which posts bins is defending herself against points that aren't directed to her?
Sure. I'll be more specific.

was flippantly calling my slight gut read on her into question.
had a random bit of self-meta defence against my (again, slight) read on her.
unnecessarily interjects into a meta discussion/question I had for A50.

The rest was in response to me talking more directly to her.
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Post Post #174 (isolation #31) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Meh okay. I guess I'm not sure what an experienced high-effort player could even do to get you to scumread them. There won't be any smoking guns and the ones who are currently being scumread are gonna be on their best behaviour going forward. I'm 80% sure you doled out townreads for me and A50 because of playstyle more than anything.

Regardless, I do recommend placing a vote. Obviously I'd prefer Bins (nothing wrong with sheeping your only strong townreads lol) or Raya but more things happen in games when you take stands.

@Elmo/Maxous
: I really don't see how mutant's evolution on his Bins read could be read as anything but town. Do you guys have an argument more than "gut", being low-key useless, and subpar logic? Cuz I'd argue the same thing to you that I did to him -- player quality/logic quality are non-alignment-indicative.
Are there any other scumreads you guys have that aren't on my town list?

PEdit: This game rubs me the wrong way. There are no clear wagons, and I'm confused by a lot of players' apparent unwillingness to vote for certain other players (despite not townreading them). Come on guys, gimme a wagon that doesn't suck. Or a wagon at all I guess. Would help with analysis.
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Post Post #186 (isolation #32) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:03 am

Post by Mathdino »

this has to be a joke
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Post Post #191 (isolation #33) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:33 am

Post by Mathdino »

i wouldn't even engage with him at this point

i want to respond in full but it would look like a wall of incinerating basically every sentence

Sauce, player to player, here's some advice on not being shit:
1. Your reads list literally pegs everyone as scum.
2. Who the fuck separates reads lists into male and female, are you a red piller or something, does this seriously change your reads?
i'm not sure if you're actually sexist but a lot of the game is gonna lowkey think you are now
3. Your reads are absolute shit and basically backwards.
4. Half your reads are based off pre-flip associatives when you don't even know anyone's alignments.
5. You shit on everyone for not wagoning when you literally ask people for votes on someone you're not sure about as a reaction test.
hint: you don't reaction test people by saying "how will you react to this?"
6. You seem to think "scumhunting quality" (which is obviously subjective given that you think everyone is shit but you) is indicative of alignment.

yeah i'm done i'm just gonna ignore your post

i don't know much about SK hunting but this reads a LOT like SK
so i guess what i'm saying is mafia should shoot them for acting like SK and being lowkey sexist
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Post Post #193 (isolation #34) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 192, Bins wrote:if you scumread everyone can you really be wrong?
This is the most high-quality thing you've said all game, Bins
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Post Post #200 (isolation #35) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 198, Almost50 wrote:@N_M: In my last 2 games with you I could easily tel you were Town. Your reads/votes were also very much sheepable. Not the case in this game. Is it just me or have you rolled Scum this time?
I liked the Raya vote a lot and would've been willing to wagon that, but the mutant wagon is still as shit as it was on page 3.

Also the hilarity of Sauce's post is that there are 11 other players in the game and doesn't use "town" to describe a single one of them. It's just bad scumhunting.

Can we appreciate how you and I are apparently the resident universal townreads, but no one seems to agree with our scumreads?

I say that out of frustration but that honestly makes me think we're on the right track and scum is straight up not allowing wagons on scum to take off. Most D1 wagons only happen with scum's permission. Just a few inactive townies REALLY fuck up a D1's trajectory and basically allows scum to take control. They're doling out token townreads on us without really working with us (or maybe just me).

Give me reads. Has your read on Raya evolved at all? Thoughts on Maxous? I assume you agree mutant is another ML bait like Elmo?
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Post Post #201 (isolation #36) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 199, Sauce wrote:Stop imagining things and spare me that most abhorrible of ways of engaging a "fellow player", would be my advice. Your trying to start a flame war with me will not compel me to townread you, because what kind of a player would I be if it would?

While you might imagine yourself incinerating sentences ... .. .. .. all I'm getting is a mafia try-hard trying to look emotional to underline something that has nothing to do with me. I could ask you to tell me if you see divine prophecies of doom and enlightenment in a Rorschach spot or just a vagina like everyone else, but I don't care. Your wannabe reverse psychology trick won't end in me ignoring your posts either.
what the actual fuck

is it even possible to be this much of a prick

did a child write this

i'm in awe
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Post Post #202 (isolation #37) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:30 am

Post by Mathdino »

sauce actually redefines "lylo liability"

can someone vig this
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Post Post #205 (isolation #38) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

Calling it now, scumteam is Bins/Raya/Fitz.

I'm willing to compromise with people for the sake of a Raya wagon, since apparently everyone's townreading Bins like a scrub.

Any takers? Mostly talking to N_M, fitz, A50, and mutant.
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Post Post #207 (isolation #39) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:52 am

Post by Mathdino »

To be more transparent, Raya's scum meta is to not really mention or interact with her teammates, and when asked for a read on them, she usually nulls.

Obviously that meta is now worthless going forward but that's part of where I'm coming up with that scumteam.
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Post Post #210 (isolation #40) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:34 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm not as optimistic. Like I said, inactivity gives scum the opportunity to run the town and decide the topics of discussion. I feel like people have been responding to a lot of my pushes with "meh, null", which implies conspiracy to me.

Posting lynch pools is a good idea though
, today will probably be a compromise lynch. I'd post another reads list but it honestly hasn't changed at all except that the townreads have shuffled around with each other a bit.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this is my understanding:

Mathdino
: Bins/Raya, and maybe fitz/Sauce.

A50
: Bins/Raya/N_M/Chip/Max.

Bins
: Elmo, not sure who else.

Chip
: fitz/Bins I think.

Elmo
: mutant/Sauce/N_M

fitz
: Math/Maxous/Raya

Lalendra
: not here

Maxous
: mutant/N_M/Sauce

mutant
: N_M/Sauce

Not_Mafia
: mutant/Bins/Raya/fitz and would presumably be willing to hammer anyone (classic N_M)

Raya
: no apparent scumreads

Sauce
: literally everyone

PEdit
: My entire knowledge of Raya's meta comes from Newbie 1837, which I was about to replace into and didn't because Raya got hammered. I noticed the no-interaction-with-her-teammates tell in that game, and skimmed her ISO in other scumgames to confirm. I think I'm right but I'm definitely open to disagreement.

This also means that Raya's flip would be much more high information than Bins'.
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Post Post #218 (isolation #41) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:03 pm

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: Raya
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Post Post #222 (isolation #42) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:55 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 219, Chip Butty wrote:@MD: Is there anything much other than meta behind your Raya vote?

@A50: Is there really enough to be sheeping MD?

I'm not necessariky disagreeing, but her ISO doesn't look terrible, given the tine6of year.
I'm using meta to make associations and to put together a scumteam. That's not where my scumread comes from.

Don't really feel like making the case again. See me talking to mutantdevle, and other posts, for why I'm scumreading her (if you have trouble finding the posts lemme know). Add the bad N_M vote to the case and that's it.

I voted her because no one is switching to Bins and it looks like more people are willing to vote Raya instead. I wouldn't have made the vote if N_M hadn't first. I'm trying to find a compromise wagon without compromising my reads :P
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Post Post #261 (isolation #43) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:07 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 225, Raya36 wrote::facepalm:

I've never seen anything good ever come from someone trying to guess the scumteam D1. Definitely hunt for scum but I don't see the point in all the meta and preflip associatives for the sake of trying to come up with the entire scum team.
This is a fair question. I usually avoid pre-flip associatives like the plague, so you're basically asking why I'm playing against playstyle as a cautious player.

Based on the setup spec I don't believe we can handle even a single mislynch (terrible setup IMO). For that reason, I'm unwilling to come up with 3 scumreads that don't fit together as a scumteam.

Imagine being in 5p LyLo. Do you, as a town, just lynch a scummy person, or go back through the game and actually deliberate on the team first?

Don't answer that, that question is rhetorical, I'm going to keep trying to find a scumteam regardless of what you think :P
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Post Post #262 (isolation #44) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:16 am

Post by Mathdino »

Fuck it, I don't really care about any of the discussion of the past 2 days, this is all a distraction.

I am hardclaiming a cop guilty on Bins (mafia).


I'm not giving you breadcrumbs because I don't give a shit. Look through my ISO if you want to verify.

Due to the nature of this setup, I don't believe we can EVER lynch town. The reason I am hardclaiming is because I think there are 3 scenarios that happen today:

1. We lynch town. Fuck, we lose, and I might get shot.
2. We lynch Bins. This is looking pretty unlikely now (thanks for all the faith guys).
3. We lynch scum other than Bins, in which case I definitely get shot for being right all the time.

I was only avoiding claiming on the offchance that I could actually drive a lynch on her by sheer presence/personality.

I was scumreading Raya for avoiding Bins. Now I'm not sure. Bins seems perfectly fine with lynching Raya and I'm not sure whether she D1 busses.
UNVOTE: Raya
I'm also not sure if she KNEW I had a guilty on her, which seriously fucks up our ability to get associations.

I need you guys to help me reread this game through the lens of Bins being confscum (and me being conftown while we're at it), and find me scumpartners before I die. Cuz I'm fucking confused.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #45) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:24 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 263, Raya36 wrote:Fair enough. Still not something I would likely do but I see more logic in it now. The way you posted it seemed like you were really confident but I'm correct it's more of a confirmation that your scumreads make sense. I was mostly asking this question since if irc ealier you said something about pre-flip associations being bad or you were scum reading someone for it.

VOTE: bins
I'll look back over things in a few.

I think with this claim our best shot is lynching bins.
Thanks Captain Obvious :lol:

Since we can't lynch town anyway, I'm actually more interested in lynching one of her partners today and having the vig or SK shoot her tonight. Lynching Bins is the lazy way out. We have 10 pages of associations to look over.
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Post Post #265 (isolation #46) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:28 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 258, Sauce wrote:Good question nr 2: Would someone like Math be really silent in the scum chat, or would he go flamboyant with plans to con town into thinking him and another buddy cannot be scum together because their behavior is too tightly linked?

I think awkward moments like Math calling a two-vote-strong random vote wagon from page 2 lynchbait, or sweettalking Raya about what a delightful player she is might be amounting due to forced interaction upon having decided to be overly active, and/or even work together a lot.

Again, I don't see any reason to divert my attention away from Lalendra, Chip, Maxous, Math and Almost. I know it would be hard to get a lynch on Math going today but not only would it be likely in my mind that he'd flip scum, it would also be really awesome if we as town could be vigilant and bold enough to punish such flamboyant scum before he can choke us to death in lylo.
you're a bad player bro

11 scumreads but the WEAKEST of all of them was on Bins

you're actually fucking suggesting that vigilante fucking shoots me

what a piece of work
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Post Post #267 (isolation #47) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:40 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 266, Raya36 wrote:Also what do you mean by "since we can't lynch town anyway".
Say scum shoots town every day (which would be smart of them if we're a good town, and is especially smart of them given that one scum had a N1 guilty).

Then say we lynch scum every day. Worst case scenario, we get mafia one by one by one and lynch SK last.

Start of D1: 12p 8/3/1
Start of D2: 9p 6/2/1
Start of D3: 6p 4/1/1
Start of D4: 4p 3/0/1 MYLO

Now imagine we lynch a single town today and mafia every other day:

Start of D1: 12p 8/3/1
Start of D2: 9p 5/3/1
Start of D3: 6p 3/2/1
Even if we get a lynch at this point (which could only be with scum's help), if we lynch mafia,
Start of D4: 3p 1/1/1
and town loses.

If we mislynch town once, I think that can be treated as a loss. Looking at the setup's history, this holds true for all games where 2 town get shot n1. It's not a good setup.
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Post Post #269 (isolation #48) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 268, havingfitz wrote:Not sure outting yourself, if true, was the best thing. Why aren't you voting Bins?

With switches there's no guarantee Bins gets vigged...maaybe the sk does it? But if you're full of shit and Bins is town and we mislynch today instead of "guilty" Bins...and town Bins is nk'd...then idfk....town's pretty much really screwed. Plus if Bins is scum and turns out to be the vig switch....good for the town.

I'll wait till Bins responds before I consider moving my vote.
Thanks for not believing me. At least ISO me; I put all sorts of shit indicating I was never going to start townreading her.

I'm not voting Bins because we're in a shithole tomorrow if people just speedlynch her now and get no discussion out of it.

Optimal play for Bins would be to
1. counterclaim cop
2. start trolling and making bad associations
3. get herself speedlynched so we can't make associations at all

I'm assuming that you guys are smart enough to not believe the "oh wow lol Math is faking a guilty" defence. Which I've never done and would be completely outside the realm of possibility for my playstyle/principles. And I'm hoping you guys are smart enough not to believe a counterclaim given that I, as scum, would have a 1/9 chance of faking a guilty on the actual cop.
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Post Post #284 (isolation #49) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:35 am

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah so at least one of {Raya, fitz} is scum for sure.

@N_M
: Talk to me about why Raya is Bins's partner based on the last few pages. If anything the last few pages have made me super shaky on that association.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #50) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:47 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 286, Not_Mafia wrote:Bins read progression on Raya, is scum-scum, she takes Raya down from town to null/scummish in a few posts, it’s clearly agenda driven and as scum Bins often waffles on reads where she wants room to move on them and call them town or scum depending on the tide of the game, she was setting up a bus on Raya whilst still giving herself room to say loljk Raya’s town if attention moved off her
Not_Mafia:

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Post Post #289 (isolation #51) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

I've significantly warmed up to the idea of Maxous being scum lately.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #52) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:10 am

Post by Mathdino »

Can someone find out if fitz scumreading everyone who scumreads him is playstyle or a scumtell?

Sauce please reevaluate your entire game trajectory if you're gonna post. Where do you stand now?

I'm actually feeling pretty sold on fitz being scum over Raya.
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Post Post #312 (isolation #53) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:31 am

Post by Mathdino »

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Post Post #315 (isolation #54) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

Guilty. Could be SK but Bins's scumslip and (seemingly genuine) complete misunderstanding of how SK works indicates mafia to me.
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Post Post #317 (isolation #55) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:54 am

Post by Mathdino »

Great idea!

VOTE: Bins
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Post Post #319 (isolation #56) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:05 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 318, Sauce wrote:
In post 315, Mathdino wrote:Guilty. Could be SK but Bins's scumslip and (seemingly genuine) complete misunderstanding of how SK works indicates mafia to me.
It's not hard to read the setup. Every time someone exhibits ignorance about such trivial and easy-to-lookup stuff a puppy and a kitten somewhere start crying, or does that only happen when scum gets voted, Maxous, hmm?
To be fair, the setup wording is fairly confusing and took me a few takes to decipher. A lot of people seemed to misunderstand it. Are you saying mutant was faking the misunderstanding too?
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Post Post #325 (isolation #57) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 321, Bins wrote:I fucking hate gambits and Mathdino is totally the type to pull this as town so that’s even more frustrating. I’m not scum and you can tell he’s lying because he specifies I’m not SK but Cop doesn’t even get results that way. I’m not doubting he’s cop (because that would be even more stupid to drag CC) but he’s faking a guilty for his dumb scumteam.
:O I'm offended! I'm squarely in the "never EVER FUCKING EVER lie as town" camp. I actually welcome counterclaims because that confirms more scum to me.

If I ever fakeclaim in any game, it's either me fakeclaiming VT (which I do all the time as a PR), because I'm scum, or in very niche circumstances that depend on the breakability of the setup.

As I said further up this page, I got a "guilty" on you, not a "mafia" on you. I'm just 90% sure you're mafia and not SK based on your ISO.

I'm sad too tbh. I checked you specifically because I was excited to play a game with you and wanted to confirm you as town. You seem like a pretty cool player.
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Post Post #327 (isolation #58) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

To be honest, when I made the initial hardclaim, I somehow got it into my head that SK would show up as specifically SK, while mafia is the only thing that would show up as "guilty". I've been playing too much Town of Salem.

That said, we've all made it extraordinarily clear why we don't think you could possibly be SK sooooo
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Post Post #333 (isolation #59) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:41 pm

Post by Mathdino »

OK if there's no associations to be found, we're speedlynching this shit. No SK leashing in my town sorry.

See you on the other side, Bins. Hope to play a less shitty game with you sometime.
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Post Post #335 (isolation #60) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Maxous is almost definitely scum then, if he was so adamant that Bins didn't scumslip.
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Post Post #338 (isolation #61) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah the possibility of mafia straight up fakeclaiming SK is too high and too common on this site to let it fly. I don't think Town-Bins would even let this fly. If I knew for sure she was SK I might consider it but there's no point in trying to analyse Bins being mafia vs SK.

Assuming Bins does flip SK, mafia thought Bins was town this whole time. This creates a whole different set of interactive tells. I think that actually clears Raya and fucks up Maxous.
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Post Post #345 (isolation #62) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Well I just paid Bins to join another game with me so I'm pretty ready for this day to end
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Post Post #353 (isolation #63) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:42 pm

Post by Mathdino »

To be clear, the reason I called the Elmo wagon opportunistic horseshit was because Bins started it.

If Bins flips SK feel free to hop on Elmo all you want tomorrow. Honestly if Bins flips SK all my reads today are pretty worthless so good fuckin luck guys
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Post Post #363 (isolation #64) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:05 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i guess now would be a bad time

to tell you guys that was a gambit
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Post Post #370 (isolation #65) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

hey im still the cop

there's this thing called a switch mechanic
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Post Post #379 (isolation #66) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i'm just trolling don't read into it
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Post Post #382 (isolation #67) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:13 pm

Post by Mathdino »

neither mafia nor SK knows what the other's night actions are

plus they can both lie in the daythread about what they did
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Post Post #385 (isolation #68) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 383, mutantdevle wrote:Math can you just clarify the following questions
no
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Post Post #387 (isolation #69) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 386, Not_Mafia wrote:I expect a full written apology from Mathdino postgame for all negative comments he has made about me and my playstyle postgame, for not CCIng him sooner
anyone wanna policy lynch this?
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Post Post #397 (isolation #70) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i love you guys
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Post Post #413 (isolation #71) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:07 am

Post by Mathdino »

Pointless discussion, yet one every town seems to have when scum gets confirmed. There's no world in which we as a town can come together on a single lynch target that isn't claimed scum. If I really wanted to lynch elsewhere, it'd be you tbh. But we don't have enough associations yet, not knowing if Bins is mafia or SK.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #72) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:43 am

Post by Mathdino »

Lol mutant scumhunting by self diss

In what universe is this guy scum
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Post Post #428 (isolation #73) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:05 am

Post by Mathdino »

My understanding is that Not_Mafia believes Bins is mafia with scumpartner Raya
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Post Post #432 (isolation #74) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:18 am

Post by Mathdino »

I think it's time to come clean guys.

I saw Bins breadcrumbing SK early on. I only knew she was scum because...
I'm the real SK. I open my NK up to a 50/50 shot between whoever Not_Mafia wants me to shoot and whoever Sauce wants me to shoot. Cheers.
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Post Post #434 (isolation #75) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

It's in SK's interest to hit town by my math. If I were SK, which I am, I would try to only hit town. Scumhunting is town's job.
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Post Post #436 (isolation #76) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:24 am

Post by Mathdino »

Well she's not in my scum PT so I'd be happy to, she's probably town anyway.
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Post Post #440 (isolation #77) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:43 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 4, Equinox wrote:
Espeonage,
town vanilla
, has died on Night 0!

Jodaxq,
town doctor
, has died on Night 0!
Image
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Post Post #445 (isolation #78) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:16 am

Post by Mathdino »

this game has stalled until that lynch tbh

i'd be entirely okay with a quickhammer

someone vote her so Not_Mafia lolhammers
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Post Post #471 (isolation #79) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:28 am

Post by Mathdino »

dear god please someone hammer
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Post Post #473 (isolation #80) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:44 am

Post by Mathdino »

chip butty is probably town but what the fuck do i know

lynch maxous tomorrow probably
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Post Post #475 (isolation #81) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:12 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 474, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:So let's play follow the SK
someone hasn't been paying any attention
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Post Post #478 (isolation #82) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oh man she hammered guys, must be town
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Post Post #479 (isolation #83) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I would love the opportunity to play a less shitty game with many of you sometime

I hate getting guilties
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Post Post #771 (isolation #84) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Thanks Equi.

Lord do I have some thoughts about this setup. The fact that A50 should've had another shot makes it even more ridiculously anti-town.

But A50 played well and played charismatically and that's really what you need to win as SK.

N_M was dumb as fuck and the fact that he was even left alive in LyLo should've indicated mutant was OBVTOWN.

mutant played well, his reaction test should've confirmed him.

Bins played well and townish. Her bussing plays were good. The rest of the mafia just choked.

Lalendra got herself townread. Getting NK'd N1 is a badge of honour.

havingfitz made the correct vigshots in terms of what was available to him and what the town was likely to mislynch anyway. Obviously a shot at mafia might've won us the game but I honestly doubt it.

Maxous and Raya were obviously scummy as shit but only due to the weird Bins situation on D1. Otherwise played very townish.

Sauce was Sauce. Tfw 2 players in his "Female Block" were scum. :lol:
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Post Post #774 (isolation #85) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Some quotes from me in the dead thread on the setup. I'd like more discussion on this because I really do believe this setup needs decommissioning.
I'm gonna say this when the game's over, but I really think this setup should be decommissioned. Points against it:

1. Nightstart means 3 players can die before the game's even started.
2. The alignments of those 3 have 100% of the time predicted the end winner. When 2 townies die N0, town loses. When SK gets mafia, town wins. The only reason this town even has a chance is I got lucky and cop investigated.
3. N0 guilties are no fun. My entire game was just figuring out when to out that guilty. Felt bad for Bins because I really did want to confirm her and play a game with her.
4. If mafia/SK never hit each other, mislynching once very easily leads to a situation in which you can lynch scum every day after that and still lose.
5. It is literally against town's interests to lynch SK N1 because then it's a horribly imbalanced mountainous game with a couple named townies.

I hesitate to call this scumsided so much as swingy as hell. Had SK and mafia killed each other N0 with me still finding mafia, it'd be massively townsided. But that first night just affects too much.

There should be some way to revise the whole thing without the SK. Or if you have a 3rd party, don't let them kill every night.

I also think the setup needs more townies to be worthwhile.
Now imagine how messed up the game would've been if I didn't get a result at all and we lynched some shit town player
Hot take: NK speculation hurts town because it tells evils who isn't the vig.

Hotter take: The vig in this game makes things even swingier, and vigs and SKs should never ever be in the same setup in a mini.

JALAPENO TAKE: vigs are always anti-town, fight me
oh my god is not_mafia going to lolhammer us into a loss
If they correctly nail mutant as conftown and the vig claims (or doesn't get voted up at all, which will help in not getting NK'd), they have a 1/3 chance at winning this game. 1/3 for picking out the last VT among the remaining suspects.
Town is absolutely killing it. 3 scum in 3 days. I don't even think mafia played badly. But damn, what a town.

They deserve a perfect win and they're probably not gonna get it because of this crazy-ass setup. :(
A setup is only good if all parties have a high chance to win if they play optimally, and if they lose, it should be based on very good play of the opposing team. For example, if the SK chooses vig/cop immunity and gets shot by mafia, that's probably their own damn fault for getting themselves shot.

Town played near fucking ideally. We traded 1 for 1 PR (and got associations out of it). Your vigshots were fantastic because Maxous/Raya were gonna get lynched anyway, AND it brought us down from even numbers to odd numbers. We lynched 3 scum in 3 days. That is INSANE.

But after ALL THAT, we were brought down to a 1/3 choice in the end. Keep in mind that SKhunting is fucking dumb. It was a 1/3 chance. From even the spectator's perspective. No one in this thread had any fucking clue who SK was.

There should absolutely never be a setup where town, through no fault of their own, is unable to mislynch even once.
Doc was gonna be impossible to use. Doc switch was alive and SK has no reason to reverse mafia's doc switch. The only benefit of doc is as a named townie.

Keep in mind town also got massively lucky with me finding mafia N1. That shouldn't really have happened. D1 lynch is pretty much always on town. And that would've resulted in basically an autoloss.

That's not a fair setup.
So should win odds be 33% Town to 33% Mafia to 33% SK? Really? Also this setup + our D1 lynch was fantastic for SK and probably threw the game to them.

Consider that town has only ever won this game when SK kills mafia on N0. SK ideal strategy is to shoot as many town as possible. A50 did exactly that.

Not okay.
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Post Post #775 (isolation #86) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oh, yeah, and if you guys are itching for another open (which I think is super balanced and cool), Stack The Deck is going into signups when Llama gets back on!

And LOL at momo, I spent like a page in the deadthread trying to figure out who he was.

@Almost50:
I'm extremely curious about your switch choices. I assume you figured "mafia will switch off cop/doc, and I'll switch cop on because I'm immune"? Why no kill N0? Were you trying to avoid hitting mafia? (if so, you played literally optimally as SK every day, congrats)
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Post Post #779 (isolation #87) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:59 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You could've been ethically utilitarian by shooting Not_Mafia, thus creating an enjoyable game experience for us all.

Sauce's arguments for you being evil were shit. There were better reasons, but SK hunting is dumb and almost impossible until like the end. I had you scumread from the deadthread because you were being an idiot with regards to mutant, who was incredibly obvtown. Your perspective should've been fitz (if not vig) and then Elmo mafia and N_M SK for sure.

Interestingly, the fact that they left vig on should've immediately implied N_M wasn't mafia, because of fucking course he's gonna get vigged otherwise.

Town has only ever won this setup when SK shoots mafia N0. N0 killing should honestly be banned. Nightstart is horrible for game enjoyment. Bins should probably be able to confirm that.
You're right it's swingy. But high chance is that both kills on N0 are town, which makes a town win basically impossible as long as the SK knows how to not kill mafia.

Edit: You did! 3 pre-ins and I'm up against a multiball setup so it should start relatively quickly (for the Open queue at least).
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Post Post #784 (isolation #88) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:07 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 783, Almost50 wrote:LOL... yeah. I won as SK and lost as Martyr (failed to get myself NK'd for 4 successive nights, and it was multi-ball (2 Mafia teams) + Vig, and I could either be shot in the old fashioned way or by visiting a killing role who was performing a kill on that night). :lol:
I'm pretty sure that to do this you just claim vig.

Unless it's Open in which case that's a Martyrclaim.
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Post Post #786 (isolation #89) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:09 pm

Post by Mathdino »

ALSO the setup is definitely better termed "swingy dependent on the first night".

Cuz if SK chooses vig/cop immunity and reverses the cop
Mafia shoots SK
Vig policy shoots mafia
SK policy shoots mafia
Cop guilties the last mafia

All scum are dead on Day 1.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #90) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:52 am

Post by Mathdino »

Aren't you an alt?
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Post Post #796 (isolation #91) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:24 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 770, Equinox wrote:Access to the mafia private topic will be granted only by permission of the respective users.
Locked

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