Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[momo]

not vig

[Srceenplay]

My first thought was a big shot him.
But
With no vig claim obviously not.

[Mathdino]

Kop's the vig or no one is.

On second thought, it doesn't make sense for mafia to shoot him just because there's mafia in his shootpool. If they were concerned about getting shot, they would either JOAT RB him or not be able to do anything about it anyway. I"m not sure his pool is indicative of anything. They probably just felt threatened by a confirmed townie with the possibility of killing them later.

[UnaBombaH]

If I were in Maf-team this game, I'd make sure my buddy RBs Elsa AND we kill them.
I wouldn't ever risk us starting D2 with two of us down.
Just my two cents on the "priority" I think Maf would have.

IF we are still vs 2+1, I think I can make my mind on the team and the SK just by reading.
I'll have time to do that tonight.

[havingfitz]

Catching up this morning.

[Kop]

I'm not the vigilante.

If I was, I wouldn't have shot either Jay or Almost.

[havingfitz]

Catching up from my post 1081.

@Hawk...my weekends are usually little to no posting by me for family reasons but
I'm flying solo the next two weekends. So depending on what "more fun to do then mafia" things I can commit to...I should be able to carve out some time to do mafia stuff.

@Math...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?

@Impede...I think Math is town but I don't think he is conftown by any means. I
assume Math is as active both as scum and town.
1114 tones it down. ok.

I like Impede's case on sheep.

@Math...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any? And 1113,
1133,
1148,
1151,
1157, 1160,
1161, 1165,
1175...etc...etc...etc...

@Srceen...are you asking for our potential hider to claim?

Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?

@Impede...I think Math was still talking probabilities. Not saying there IS an SK. Just saying what conditions would need to be for one to exist.

The town tell discussion between Impede and Srceen is zzzzzzz

1158 by Hawk...exaaactly.

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

@ sheep...there could be a vig who doesn't want to claim.

1187 by Impede has him cementing his town status for me. When I am town and
people are likeminded/in my head...I town read them.

Damnit Math...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?

@Kop...why as a vig would you have not shot the player who was claiming your role
to save his ass? Wouldn't that have been a preferred scum strategy to try and out a vig as a consolation to being lynched?

OK...caught up. I think my reads are still close to what they were a few days ago.

I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????

smh....

Current reads:
Town - Impede, Hawk, momo
Town lean - Math and Kop...and I think Anonymous based on VCA review. Una
Scum suspects - Srceen and sheep.

Oh...and

I am not the vig

.

But if I was I wouldn't tell you.

[sheepsaysmeep]

vig should definitely claim if they exist

[havingfitz]

vig should definitely claim if they exist

Ok. Why?

[Hawk]

Vig should only claim if they shot Jay or A50... Because it should in theory rule out any setup with an SK which is beneficial for Town.

If we leave it as is with a tracker flip scum team might know quite a bit more about the setup than we so and the # of potential PRs left.

That's the only reason Vig should claim.

[Hawk]

But if no one's claiming vig then we should just for now assume we have an SK and play accordingly.

I actually at this point suggest we drop the Vig talk because far as I can see everyone claimed not vig.

Moving forward the setup is either 5t or 1t if we assume a serial killer at which point no one should claim shit now and we should move forward with analysis and lynching.

I don't like sheep. Didn't like Screenplay's predecessor but I want more from him a I can't read that slot well.

Kop I'm unsure of but Null is a good place. Impede Math and Fitz can be town for now if fitz keeps this up

[Srceenplay]

@Srceen...are you asking for our potential hider to claim?

No.
I was thinking if we all said we were hiding behind the same person we could clear a town or find a scum.

I figured out on my own why that is a bad idea.

[Mathdino]

@Math...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?

All 3 of you fucked up in the same way. You didn't see that I had already directed A50's hider target, and he had, a long time ago, agreed to hide behind whoever Creature chose to hide behind if we lynched Creature.

This is not something that mafia doesn't notice. I'm townreading Una/Hawk already and I find it hard to believe fitz and some other mafia member doesn't catch that since it's literally in my last posts of the day. Now that only works if there's 2 mafia left, which I had been assuming for a while.

So basically either both mafia fucked that up somehow (meaning both mafia in the 3 of you) or neither did, because one of you would've been corrected by the other one in trying to decide the NK.

@Math...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any?

Scum already knows whether we have 1T or 5T. We don't. This is a massive scumhunting disadvantage and is evidenced by the above "neither or both" idea, which only works under 1T. Plus I'm pretty sure I can break the setup if this is 1T. Unfortunately this looks like it's gonna be a group super resistant to claims.
Honestly what's probably gonna happen at this point is whomever's on the stand will claim a PR and this will lead to desired massclaimesque strategy anyway to prove/disprove them.

Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?

I was asked to calculate the probability of each setup. Made a few mistakes but found that, to an observer, 1T vs 5T is 50/50.

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

Look I'm trying to rule out 2T but if you keep waffling on claiming vig then I have no idea. The longer we wait, the significantly more effective it'll be for mafia/SK to fuck up our setup spec through planning and believable fakeclaiming. I'm at the point where I straight up won't believe any vigs that ever claim (and will assume they're SK instead) if you don't definitively claim in the next post.

Damnit Math...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?

[catty]hey dude if you're vig then dying tonight is pro-town based on switch [/catty]

If there's a vig then we know there's no SK, which means we're for sure in 2T. This is a HUGE advantage when the inevitable massclaim comes because we'll be able to popcorn and sort everyone into potential PRs and VTs. This creates lynchpools. If scum all claims VT, then all our PRs (as long as the setup makes sense) are confirmed. If scum starts claiming some PRs, we'll know (because the setup won't make sense), and then we either confirm all the PRs or see if any scum can still be VTs. I've thought this through, lol.

Vig should probably be protected tonight if there is one but I really heavily don't believe there's a vig based on dayplay thus far so I'm really not concerned with people claiming not vig.

I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????

This is a pretty good tl;dr of what I'm trying to do. Most semi-opens are broken in half by massclaim if enough PRs are alive.

I've given up on getting everyone to claim from my fancy list because clearly a bunch of people are gonna decide it's more worth their time to argue with me over it than do the simple process. If we find scum, they'll probably claim PR, and that's good enough for me.

Oh...and

I am not the vig

.

But if I was I wouldn't tell you.

This is ridiculous. If you're on the stand and claim vig later you won't be believed (no reason to think you're not SK, and you should've cc'd Jay). Please be clear.

[havingfitz]

I am not a vig.

[Hawk]

@Kop I'm fairly certain this is going to be forgotten but you said "I don't think Screen is scum. Early impressions, yes, but since turn of this day I don't think it. " But I'm having a hard time seeing anything involving day flip that makes screen town.

Creature and RedFlavor were cross voting each other at day end. Do we think it was a possible scum!Hammer??

[Hawk]

Fitz you mention Impede is on your town list now along with me and momo. And out RedFlavours slot as town lean because of VCA you don't think them cross voting and then Red hammering scum creature couldn't be distancing?

[Hawk]

There was supposed to be also why did Impede swap to town read to You? if you did VCA and don't think the hammer was scummy and townlean that whole section+kop you think scum was entirely off the wagon??

[Hawk]

@Sheep contribute a read list please. Or well anything. It doesn't have to be long but your ISO is at least 50% nonsense and pagetop.

[sheepsaysmeep]

creature's vote doesnt mean anything
pedit perfect timing lmao

[sheepsaysmeep]

i need to read the thread when i dont have the flu
i'll try to read through some stuff and drop some thoughts later

[Hawk]

Momo do you mind giving me a readlist sometime soon or at least your lynch pool? I know you don't like the Scum!Dino talk but the wagon against creature yesterday is widely townread and I'm a bit paranoid about potential bussing that could have happened.

Pedit: creatures votes must mean something we just don't know what yet Sheep.

[sheepsaysmeep]

no
he voteheld until he voted red at eod when he was basically inevitably that day's lynch
he voted something that definitely wouldnt go through
it doesnt mean anything

[Hawk]

You realize taking an action like that is doing something right. He voteheld for the entire fucking day if he thought he was being lynched he doesn't have to vote at all.

But noted. "Sheep: Creatures EoD vote is Wifom. Don't read too much into it"

Okay so ignoring creatures vote what about RedFlavours hammer. opinion thoughts??

[sheepsaysmeep]

im psure scum!red wouldnt have hammered and instead have let creature claim? im not entirely sure about this tho

[Hawk]

im psure scum!red wouldnt have hammered and instead have let creature claim? im not entirely sure about this tho

Why? is that a meta read? If you're not sure voice out your reasoning right it down. Why does Scum!Red not hammer and wait for a claim versus not?

This game is very slow and there's a lot to slog through so forgive me if I'm asking more questions than providing pure content myself. I find town works better when everyone is providing content and doing little things like this rather than 1 to 3 players continuously making the largest ISO dives possible.