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This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
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Mathdino
Mathdino
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Mathdino
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Post Post #9 (isolation #0) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Okay let's see, some quick stats.

If scum receive 2 PRs, there are 6C2 = 15 distributions (of PR vs not PR) for town.
If scum receive 1 PR, there are 2C1 * 6C3 = 2*20 = 40 distributions among scum and town.
If scum receive no PRs, there are 6C4 = 15 distributions for town.

Probabilities are then 3/14 to 4/7 to 3/14.

In the first setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 100% chance of being town.
In the second setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 1/4 chance of being scum.
In the third setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 1/2 chance of being scum.

Expected value of lynching VT claims is 1/4*4/7 + 1/2*3/14 = 1/7+3/28 = 1/4.

Unless someone scumclaims or starts a counterclaim it seems like Vanilla Cop claim + VT-only-massclaim followed by D1 VT lynch is correct. PRs should probably not specific claim.

A. D1 scum lynch. If one of the VTs is scum, they're ascetic already. Cop and Vanilla Cop can both check for asceticism. I think JK should 50/50 jail the cop or jail the roleblocker. Roleblocker should 50/50 block the JK or block the Cop. I'm pretty sure something along these lines will ultimately semi-break the setup. If either Cop or Vanilla Cop gets results on a VT, that one is confirmed town. Scum's inability to actually use their PR significantly hampers them. Scum loss.

B. D1 town lynch. Vanilla Cop is useless except to check for asceticism. Cop, JK, and RBer check remaining VTs (create a list to WIFOM the NK). Vanilla Cop should probably random among the VTs.

B1. No kill. If Vanilla Cop receives no result, lynch their target and then JK or RBer if townflip. If Cop gets a guilty, lynch the guilty then the cop if townflip. Otherwise, lynch a JK/RBer target (Cop now has an innocent, meaning scumteam is either Cop/his innocent or is neither). Scumflip on any of these scenarios disintegrates scum.
Townflip on JK/RB target leaves Cop, VC, JK, RB, cop innocent, and JK/RB target. At least one PR must be scum. I'd have to think more about this situation.

B2. VT kill. One of the VTs MUST be scum (otherwise BP vest). Creates a 50/50 MyLo situation.

B3. PR kill. Not gonna go through the list.

Seems like a lot of situations lead to scum being utterly fucked.
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