Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Moneybags]

Starting with Beefster:

Despite my inital thoughts from 42 I feel like he's a pretty strong town read.

Bella votes are pro town atm

Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber
Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.

I agree. Actually I think it's very manipulative. I'm aware he didn't vote for Bell but that doesn't mean I like the way he's presenting himself here.

Turns out I misread. You're absolutely right.

That changes a lot, actually. It basically flips my reads on Thor and PP.

This Flubber v Thor argument makes me more comfortable with my vote.

I feel like in a world where Beef is scum, he would never 180 like this after attention being drawn to 42. Even though I disagree with him here I appreciate his ability to make such a blatantly drastic, yet honest change in opinion. I feel like scum would be more focused on "how can I subtlety change my mind on this" rather than just an outright 180.


On Max:

I don't feel like max is scum. I feel like his analysis of HeWhoSwims in 71 is very detailed. I'm not sure if I believe it's 100% accurate. But I think it's a very detailed thing to find, and not something you can really pull out of a hat if you're on the spot and need to throw out some contribution. He's also been contributing since.
I still feel like his remark of having reads but not listing them is strange. However I think it's more interesting to see everyone else's rather severe reaction to it.


HeWhoSwims hasn't posted a lot but I don't feel like they are trying to hide anything either.

I feel like Athena is accurate in 84 in her remarks about texcat. I also agree with her analysis of PP in 100.

I like how Klick is asking a lot of questions instead of just accusing everyone. Town read on him for me.

Something feels really off about moz in 130. I find it strange how he's going to call out Klick for doing something that max did earlier that everyone found suspicious. Seems like a redundant, ez callout that's bound to get people riled up, right?

I feel like Bell is participating on a good level with Klick and Beef.


Ok so now for Flub and PP.
Flub: I'm not a fan of how Flub is trying to control the game. It could just be his playstyle but he seems very intent on guiding the direction of the game. His comment on Bell comes off as very manipulative to me. In general it feels like he's going way out of his way to prove that he too is a good town boi, and is very angry at all these scummy lads in his town. And if you're town of course you need to side with him too right?

PP: I don't like how he's reacted to everything so far, at all. He seems really defensive based on his interactions with Thor, Athena, and myself. I feel like Athena's analysis of him is solid. He seems very upset about the timing thing, which I personally think isn't a valid argument. However if you're guilty and someone catches you with a jank argument, that's upsetting right? It's frustrating to be caught doing something that really can't even be pinned down as suspicious. I just don't like that whole exchange. I don't like his responses to anything. I don't like how he hasn't done much else but defend himself.

VOTE: PenguinPower

[Moneybags]

Yeah, that is what I meant and was super helpful.

IF flub -doesn't- wanna lynch me, what does he think town is getting out of a wagon... I have some ideas but I'd rather flub talked to me.

The idea was that you had a weak entrance that scum could have hopped on to counterwagon maxous. It would have made for a good talking point in addition to Thors push on penguin

I'm not sure I follow. Are you now saying that post was in an effort to see if anyone would fall for the bait?

[Moneybags]

Klick: I'd like to hear more about your reads. I see you asking people for theirs but I'd like to hear what you think.
Thor: Do you have any opinions on people you haven't mentioned yet? I know you've been busy with PP and Flub but I'm interested in what else you have to say.
HeWhoSwims: What do you think of people like Flub? Has your opinion changed on Max?

[Flubbernugget]

In a way, moneybags, but there was no "bait" in the sense that it would have given us a smoking gun on someone.

I'm surprised that people continue to assume consequence from saying votes on Bella would be pro town

[Bellaphant]

Mhmm, that's pretty much what I thought, flub.

....although it does suggest you are pretty confident im town?

[Flubbernugget]

Well if I 100% knew you were town and didn't see a counterwagon appear, surely I'd be more surprised, right?

[Bellaphant]

...sorry, reword that?

I'm going to bed, it's 2.30 am and im dumb now.

[Flubbernugget]

I'm not sure how else to, really.

If you are town, and had a fairly weak entrance, why do you think scum wouldn't counterwagon you?

[Moneybags]

Are you implying since there was no counterwagon on Bella, that makes here very plausibly scum?
I don't see how that's any more likely than the scum piling on Max.

[Klick]

On my phone. Just posting to say I really, really like your post 150 Moneybags. Particularly the Beefster bit - that was a nice catch, and I think I'm going to townread him now as well. I agree with not quite seeing Maxous-scum at this point in time, and his wagon is very peculiar/interesting to me. Going to look into the votes on him in detail when I get back on my laptop.

PEdit: oh that's a lot of posts. Moneybags I'll give you reads with explanation when I'm home, does that work? Or if you want them now I can give them, but there won't be much support.

[Moneybags]

Yeah no pressure, take your time.

[TesXX]

Due to request, I will use a darker blue for now.

Official Vote Count 1.2

PenguinPower

(3): CultOfAthena, Thor665, Moneybags

Maxous

(3): texcat, PenguinPower, Bellaphant

Bellaphant

(2): Klick, Maxous

Flubbernugget

(1): Beefster

HeWhoSwims

(1): mozamis

Not Voting

(3): Errantparabola, Flubbernugget, HeWhoSwims

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-01-24 20:00:56)

Let me know if I made errors[/color]

[Thor665]

Thor, I expected better than defending your counterexample by virtue of it being a counterexample. How does that show me you didn't get lucky and lynch scum for the wrong reason? I'm well aware that yes, you *could* catch scum on timing. That doesn't convince me that it's a useful path of pursuit to find scum.

Well, part of that difficulty is you randomly and suddenly adding the caveat of 'how does it apply to this particular situation' which makes it more difficult to find a strongly applicable tell as opposed to the far easier job of showing that the tell generically can work.
Also, since your claim was 'timing tells are junk' not 'timing tells based off game start and mod posts timed to a apparently unactive slot's start are junk' I think my answer is very valid.

In addition, asking if I would like examples of timing tells working, and then telling me doing such is a waste of time comes off as incredibly disingenuous.

I never said the examples were a waste of time.
I *did* say that you claiming you could read me off the examples was a waste of time.
Learn to read?

Also Thor, is there a reason your interrogation of me isn't a push yet? You're usually quick to discern my alignment.

I am?

I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.

It's not a playstyle issue.

You opted to call me out.
You did not opt to call out anyone else.
I'm asking why and you're not answering yet.

Thor: Do you have any opinions on people you haven't mentioned yet? I know you've been busy with PP and Flub but I'm interested in what else you have to say.

I have also offered reads on Max and Athena and hinted at some on Moneybags.
When I have other reads I'll offer them.

[CultOfAthena]

I could see how you would see scum there, but what's newb about those posts?

It almost seems too obvious to be an actual scumtell because it bears resemblance to the kind of opening post I'd see from newbscum. I'm not really sure how to make sense of it. I'm probably reading into it too much and it might just be playstyle.

Unless I'm missing something, you didn't actually explain what about them makes them "newb", specifically. Or what makes them scum, for that matter.

I just don't get the idea behind telling him 'yo, stop doing A and I'll read you townish'.

The general idea is that calling something out makes someone less likely to do it. Even if penguin is scum, they've now lost a tool to bog the thread down with bullshit.

There's also the point that I never said anything about townreading penguin. Ever.

Hm, these two posts don't make sense going together to me. The only reason I can see that you would want someone to stop doing a scumtell would be if you strongly townread them (in spite of that scumtell) and want other people to do the same. The only reason as town, that is. Help me understand this – if you don't townread Penguin, why give him advice on what would make him a townread to you?

max I feel i have explained? his weird town read early post, and then later saying he wouldn't clarify bc he didn't wanna get into q and a about it? hiding information isn't helping town.

This seems like a weak read to me – could you elaborate on it? I have something to say but I'd like to hear more from you on this before I say anything.

---

Retracting what I said earlier about mozamis – he's being more "in the background" than I remember.

I'm not sure how meaningful the lack of a wagon appearing on Bella is – it seems like many people weren't even around at the time.

Although it all seems genuine enough, I get a bad feeling about Klick's posting and interaction with others, specifically in 159 as one example.

[HeWhoSwims]

Hi, sorry for the inactivity! I was busy+tired yesterday, gonna read from my last post. Gonna put it between spoiler tags.

Spoiler:

I don't really get what Thor is being "angry" about regarding Moneybags. 38 says that the early bird = scum argument is crappy (which I co-sign). Then 46 actually does incriminate Beef as being the one to bite the bait Thor is throwing out by going OTT on PenguinPower. You could call Beef's defense chainsaw here but I'm unsure. However the argument is crappy, and the interaction is NAI for Penguin and - according to the people who know Thor's meta - also NAI for Thor. It is getting us out of RVS though.

dislike how PP primarily focused just on Thor.

I hadn't seen this, but it checks out; 85% of the posting is about Thor while also semi-claiming he wants to move away from the argument (68). Also not a big fan of his reaction in 94 to 84. There may be an agressive guy pushing you but a) There are 11 more people in this game, with at least 2 scum there if you're town and b) it's still moreso getting us out of RVS I think.

Unsure on the townread on Mozamis in 95. Well, not so much about the townread (I see the arguments for that) but moreso why it would be unlikely scum would be setting up stuff for later in the game. I sort of agree on Klick's sentiments about 48 in the same post 95.

Bella votes are pro town atm]

Why? Bella did something moderately scummy which isn't that incriminating. Why would it be pro town voting Bella if we're basing the assumption Bella=scum on one post?

I like 100 except the assumption that scum would be always distancing in the early game. Why wouldn't scum want to throw a little accusation out which can later be used to say "Look at this, I'm not this guy/gal's partner"? (among other stuff of course)

I'm really hoping 108 is Thor getting us further out of RVS because otherwise the blowing up of the timing argument gets a bit too much for my taste. If it's Thor trying to fish for scum jumping on him as a mislynch... Then that makes Flubber suspicious, and I've not been very convinced by his posts so far that he's town.

@Maxous thanks for the response. I was just thinking he could've been notified when the game started while doing mod stuff but eh, I get what you were saying.

I can see why you get vague impressions but I don't think they'll be helpful to the game... someone isn't scum or town based on the way they cast a vote in RVS or say hello to competitors so having impressions is okay, but why mention them as you said?

so you saying you suspect Mavous or not. I dont like this, it seems like vague scummy shade throwing.
(@ - whoever: my vote wa semi serious - he did seem a bit self conscious, but obv. it wasnt a massive strong read - but i am now happy with it as a serious vote).
Lets get some votes on He whoswims.

I'm not saying here that I suspect or don't suspect Maxous. Even if he's "hiding" the early impressions then that alone doesn't warrant a lynch or makes him a top scum suspect. Doesn't change the fact that I was thinking that bringing up those gut/page 1 impressions was weirdish, seeing it's probably not helpinig town.

Hmmm Bella 140 could be scum seeing a possible mislynch, that's what it pinged me as on a first watch but would scum feel the need to solidify a mislynch wagon this early? Unsure - I'm doubting it. I like Bella interrogating Beef a little bit after this.

@Moneybags why exactly do you think scum can't do a 180 but instead wants to change their mind subtly? Wouldn't that pretty much depend on the playstyle of the scum players...? The rest of 150 is great though and I agree with most of it.

Moneybags: I see the question towards me in 152, will answer in a separate post.

I like most of 163 but am unsure about the Klick accusation. I also feel the lack of wagon on Bella at this point is not indicative at all...

[Beefster]

I could see how you would see scum there, but what's newb about those posts?

It almost seems too obvious to be an actual scumtell because it bears resemblance to the kind of opening post I'd see from newbscum. I'm not really sure how to make sense of it. I'm probably reading into it too much and it might just be playstyle.

Unless I'm missing something, you didn't actually explain what about them makes them "newb", specifically. Or what makes them scum, for that matter.

I guess I'll try to elaborate some more. It's only the kind of newb that overlaps with scum, which doesn't really add up since moz is obviously no newb.

To expain where I'm coming from, newbscum will sometimes 'overcompensate' by mentioning that they're town (or in some cases, strongly imply it) in one of their opening posts. I suspect it's the kind of habit you grow out of as you gain experience, so it probably doesn't mean much and probably is just an indication of playstyle. Town do it too, (perhaps less often?) so it's probably null, especially given his experience.

I hope that makes sense. I guess I didn't explain myself very clearly the first time you asked the question.

[HeWhoSwims]

HeWhoSwims: What do you think of people like Flub? Has your opinion changed on Max?

I didn't really have a big opinion on Max after my last post. As I said in my catch-up post, I saw a weird thingy but it wasn't enough for me to scumread him. At this moment, I like his game, he's not avoiding any questions and he's weighing in and contributing to discussion. Not a big fan of the Bella vote (or the wagon in general) based solely off her entrance post but I can forgive it

As for Flub, some 1-line posts, or posts that are barely getting us to discuss stuff. Examples are 80 92 93 98. It's empty content, so to speak: it's there, it's in his post count but it's not really helping. It's getting better towards where we are now though. But I still think the arguments towards scum!Bella are weak and Flub seems to be the main pusher of this. Say Maxous is scum, and has a wagon on him this early in the day, then would his scumbuddies really want to go all out and counterwagon Bella purely based on her entrance?

Flub's line of thought seems to be Bella has a weak entrance --> is going to be counterwagoned by scum if she's town. Not a big fan of that train of thought. It would require Maxous to actually be scum (not reading him as such) and even then I doubt scum would want to group together and create a weak wagon as soon as a Max wagon gets a few votes on it.

[Klick]

Alright, reads.
mozamis - slight Town-lean for reasons I've already discussed.
Beefster - Town-lean based on Moneybags' point; I can't discern his alignment beyond that, but the argument that he wouldn't make such a drastic change in reads just like that is one I can get behind.
Thor - Thor

Moneybags - I guess a Town lean? Essentially I'm seeing a bunch of pro-Town activity from you - what you're doing is advancing the Town agenda - but I can't say that's totally alignment-indicative just yet. But I want you to be town. Your reads make sense from a town perspective and you're a good mind to be able to rely on in this team. I think for convenience's sake I'm going to assume you're Town for a little while, and reevaluate at a later point. More than likely I'm right and we'll start getting somewhere by cooperating.

texcat - I felt good about his second post as I discussed before. It would really help if he posts more so I can further cement that read if he's town. Null-leaning-town.

Bella - I didn't like her second post, but my vote on her has been more to encourage her to get in here and get involved than anything. I was really hoping once she got active she would show me she was town really quickly (I know Bella very well personally, we joined this to play together). That didn't quite happen. I can't shake an annoying gut scum read of her, but I also can't justify it beyond that second post.

Flubbernugget - I want to say Scum, but I'm not going to, mostly because I think the things I'm seeing as scummy are probably playstyle-related. Namely, he's been primarily focused on exactly two subjects all game; the never-ending discussion of Thor's activity read on Penguin, and the whole "votes on Bella are pro-town" thing (and he keeps being baited into that discussion). Due to his reactive/responsive posting style, I don't think it's really indicative of alignment, but at the same time I really want to hear about more things than that from him. Especially since he mentioned Penguin would be scum if all he could do was argue with Thor, which is all Flubber is really doing at this point. Null for the time being, but I'd like to fix that.

@Flubber:

You gave a short list of reads back on Page 4. There's been quite a bit more content since then. Can I get an updated sense of where your thoughts and reads are? Your vote on Maxous didn't stay; I'm assuming you didn't really get what you wanted out of the vote, since Maxous hasn't quite picked things up?


I don't really have reads anywhere else at the moment.

[Moneybags]

I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.

It's not a playstyle issue.

You opted to call me out.
You did not opt to call out anyone else.
I'm asking why and you're not answering yet.

I'm not sure what else I can say at this point. At the time of writing that post while I was replying to you I thought I would also point out beef's behavior in his post. You are correct, I did not specifically say to his face "beef, why have you done this". I left it as a comment in passing, similarly to how I left the original comment about you.
At this point it's just a debate on how I intended to write my post vs how I came across. I'm not really sure how I'm supposed to clarify this any more than I already have.

[Flubbernugget]

Thor, what changed from 110

[Flubbernugget]

Klick, I'm sharing a simular sentiment that the majority of the players that have posted so far are town. When I have more time I will detail this.

The one thing I don't particularly understand is why people believe texcat is town. Not getting the gut feeling others have.

[texcat]

On Maxous's "I have town reads"
- I feel like it's an odd thing to say but I can see why he wouldn't supply reasons. Sometimes you just get vague impressions, it happens.
- What I don't understand is

why he felt the need to speak out on these impressions.

It wasn't that Maxous did not supply reasons for his town leans, it was that he didn't even supply names of his town reads that stood out to me. Stood out enough that I called it blatant, but (@Cult) I guess blatant is in the eye of the beholder.

uhh real mountain out of a molehill here guys.

i just felt Athena and Penguin were a bit towny in the first couple of posts. I didn't mention names because i wanted to avoid the Q&A but it happened anyway.

I have more solid town leans on Moneybags and Mozamis by this stage.

VOTE: Beefster

I guess?

His vote on #42 felt a bit weak. Felt a bit more like he wanted an excuse to vote there.

bit of a scum-lean on HWS too.

Uh, I think the argument for the first poster to be scum is weak

Penguin might've just been around when the game started, or had an email notification, or was doing mod stuff...

^
he's not reading

This post is enough to get me to
UNVOTE: .
@HeWhoSwims, perhaps you should reread 50 where PP says that he posted before PMs went out.
I agree about Beefster, but I've liked Beefster's recent explanations to Bella and CultOfA.

Klick, I'm sharing a simular sentiment that the majority of the players that have posted so far are town. When I have more time I will detail this.

The one thing I don't particularly understand is why people believe texcat is town. Not getting the gut feeling others have.

I don't understand either, but do note that Bella's pockets are roomy and warm.

[Flubbernugget]

So make a case or something

[Maxous]

Hey guys, gonna be busy today.
Will be back tomorrow evening.

[texcat]

So make a case or something

Hmmmm...

VOTE: Flubbernugget
Telling me to make a case, when you are not. Plus telling us that voting Bella is a town thing to do, when you are not.