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Post Post #32 (isolation #0) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:55 pm

Post by davesaz »

Jodaxq, why the self vote in RVS?
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Post Post #33 (isolation #1) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:57 pm

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: Schism
Because dividing is bad for town.
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Post Post #51 (isolation #2) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:53 am

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: xXTonereaderXx
This is not a gimmick I like, and it's early enough in the game to express that dislike in the traditional way.
I do
not
approve a policy wagon here.

In other news Jodaxq plays with fire, will she get burned?
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Post Post #58 (isolation #3) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:49 am

Post by davesaz »

Probably random is forbidden anyway.
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Post Post #59 (isolation #4) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:51 am

Post by davesaz »

Stupid autocorrect. Provably
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Post Post #119 (isolation #5) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:21 pm

Post by davesaz »

Inquisitive.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #6) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:42 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 54, Sleepless Assassin wrote:
In post 51, davesaz wrote:VOTE: xXTonereaderXx
This is not a gimmick I like, and it's early enough in the game to express that dislike in the traditional way.
I do
not
approve a policy wagon here.

In other news Jodaxq plays with fire, will she get burned?
Why make the vote if you don't approve of a policy wagon?
Rather than answer directly, I'd like to hear what you thought about both tonereader in general and my post.
I will be open about it, later.
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Post Post #133 (isolation #7) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:46 am

Post by davesaz »

That's the kind of post that usually makes me scumread someone.
Talk about one slot, naked vote another.
Please play responsibly.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #8) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:52 am

Post by davesaz »

If chip was serious the note to mod needs to be
bolded
. If not serious then I leave the analysis of that to others who have seen it.

Jodaxq, is there anyone remaining who hasn't commented on your self vote / random thing? I'd like to go deeper there but don't want to disturb it if you're waiting for something.

Pedit: the comment was more about the naked vote than the Elmo stuff.
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Post Post #136 (isolation #9) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:55 am

Post by davesaz »

Speaking of responses, I have two things I'm looking for a response on.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #10) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:49 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 140, Jodaxq wrote:
In post 135, davesaz wrote:If chip was serious the note to mod needs to be
bolded
. If not serious then I leave the analysis of that to others who have seen it.

Jodaxq, is there anyone remaining who hasn't commented on your self vote / random thing? I'd like to go deeper there but don't want to disturb it if you're waiting for something.

Pedit: the comment was more about the naked vote than the Elmo stuff.
No I think I've seen something from everyone. What did you want to explore?
It looks like an obvious reaction test to me. Which means you should be doing something about the reactions.
I plan to do the same but have been distracted by a new pack being put up on the minecraft server.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #11) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:51 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 139, Sleepless Assassin wrote:Too many posts. I'll be back Friday at the latest.
In current site meta I don't think many people would call 6 pages "too many posts".
If this is actually a post about too much RL for this relatively small number of posts, then fine but honesty is the best policy.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #12) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:54 am

Post by davesaz »

Don't think I have ever seen havingfitz post a wall. Even a small one. This post also serves as a reminder to myself to check that if it seems that it will be relevant.
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Post Post #151 (isolation #13) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 12:51 pm

Post by davesaz »

Good example of how mods need to be careful not to influence by mistake. Hopefully all's well that ends well.
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Post Post #155 (isolation #14) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:35 pm

Post by davesaz »

FWIW I thought that making read lists by quoting the player list (and moving people around? I'm not good at catching the details) was bad too.

Tonereader, thoughts on my post that was directed toward you?
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Post Post #168 (isolation #15) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:51 pm

Post by davesaz »

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Post Post #191 (isolation #16) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:22 am

Post by davesaz »

It is not contradictory to say an IC's posting is scummy. People said it of me recently. I think it represents a good opportunity to recalibrate.
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Post Post #199 (isolation #17) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:01 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 197, Schism wrote:
In Regards to “Confidence:
” Id argue that hesitence on reads isnt good if you dont have a reason.
This sounds backwards somehow. Can you restate that in terms of what's good?
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Post Post #275 (isolation #18) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:39 pm

Post by davesaz »

To be bluntly honest, I don't remember my reads in this game. I accept the request to do more.
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Post Post #283 (isolation #19) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:04 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 282, Almost Chara wrote: the holidays may have affected his play
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Post Post #284 (isolation #20) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:05 am

Post by davesaz »

Heh, maybe I'll steal tone's thing. :shifty:
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Post Post #285 (isolation #21) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:13 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 208, Jodaxq wrote:
In post 199, davesaz wrote:
In post 197, Schism wrote:
In Regards to “Confidence:
” Id argue that hesitence on reads isnt good if you dont have a reason.
This sounds backwards somehow. Can you restate that in terms of what's good?
I believe his statement is "I'd argue that hesitancy on reads is not good if you do not have a reason to be hesitant." Or, flipped around, "Confidence on reads is good if you have reason to be confident."
I asked because I don't think it's a good thought to have for town, or at least it's incomplete from a town perspective.
Town by definition should be at least a little hesitant on their reads, even if they have reason to be confident. Failure to be hesitant can risk putting scum in a "forever town" box.
It is true that scum can be detected by unfounded confidence, especially in their town reads.
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Post Post #286 (isolation #22) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:17 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 203, Voyc wrote:
In post 157, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Also notice how everyone who has posted a list is roughly the same?
Do you agree with the lists? Are there any changes you would make to them?
In post 248, Voyc wrote:checking in to prodge, busy times! Happy holidays everyone.
In post 247, Almost Chara wrote:
In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9840154#p9840154]post 247[/url], Almost50 wrote:@Tonereader: At least put a +/- under each quote so I know whether you're pointing out something scummy or townie. Can you do that for me?
Oh I agree w/ this.

@Schism, as I asked before, are you confident that Assemble will flip scum? +and if yeah, why? He's posted twice, and Chip+Assemble's own signature seem to indicate activity is really NAI for him.

@Elmo, I'd like it if you could answer:
In post 203, Voyc wrote:Do you agree with the lists? Are there any changes you would make to them?
Voyc has a very short ISO but I think these show more town mind set than scum.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #23) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:23 am

Post by davesaz »

Assemblerotws is too short to get a strong read from.
Slight scum lean.
In post 222, Assemblerotws wrote: I slightly townread Jo for their reaction test and agree with the IC's reads on Schism. I am also curious why people haven't unvoted the IC.
The first two points are very sheepish looking, and the 3rd one is the type of little nuance that scum like to point out to see if town will grab it and run, while not voting it to try to avoid being called scummy for making the point because it stands out less without the vote.

BTW this is not in reply to northsidegal's request. I'm gonna reserve my strongest town and scum for that answer. Consider it a catch up by pseudo-replace-in -- like I said, I don't really remember enough. :cool:
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Post Post #288 (isolation #24) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:30 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 128, cytheflyguy wrote:UNVOTE: Elmo Teh Azn

VOTE: havingfitz
Why the vote here? Sure I could look at what havingfitz posted before this and try to guess, but that can lead to misconceptions.
In post 161, cytheflyguy wrote:
In post 159, Jodaxq wrote:Almost Chara was clearly scummy as hell.
They're the innocent child doe
Here's another place where scum might be pointing out an obvious mistake but not doing anything about it.
But I don't feel as strongly about this instance. I think it's more likely to be (relatively) harmless banter. Still, quoting it helps me remember for later in case an inconsistency develops.
In post 217, cytheflyguy wrote:I'm getting over a case of the flu. I should be able to post tomorrow, but I don't trust myself today.
Ugh, sick right before Christmas is the worst (other than sick
on
Christmas), hope you recovered enough to enjoy the holiday a little.
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Post Post #293 (isolation #25) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:57 am

Post by davesaz »

Yes, even if seemingly unnecessary.
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Post Post #331 (isolation #26) » Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:23 am

Post by davesaz »

Unofficially that's 4 each on assemble and fitz, with 2 days and change left.
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Post Post #387 (isolation #27) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:50 am

Post by davesaz »

If you could lynch anyone else (without needing to worry about whether enough votes possible / your windmill-tilting derailing town's only hope to avoid no-lynch) who would it be?
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Post Post #404 (isolation #28) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:25 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 400, Sleepless Assassin wrote: Also whoever is good at setup stuff should try to figure stuff out with the cop flip and vig shot.
A full cop is at least CC. IC is at least M, and a vig at least V. That consumes a minimum of 4 characters and leaves at most 3 T's in the setup. With a SK flipped, 1T and 3T are the only possibilities.

The mafia team definitely has a roleblocker, being either 2 goons + RB, or goon,RB,GF.

We should
not
massclaim at this point. Scum know if it's 1T or 3T based on whether they have a GF or not, but don't know what the extra letters are if it's 1T or who the PR(s) are.
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Post Post #419 (isolation #29) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:59 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 415, Jodaxq wrote:I didn't notice before that Dave voted for ToneReader early just as a way to show disapproval of the gimmick and then never moved his vote. That's certainly interesting. Why did you choose to avoid both wagons, Dave? Why did you not move your vote off of Tone?
I didn't really approve of the D1 lurker lynch, and thought there was a chance Fitz might be town until I saw the flip.
I'm thinking the hammer right after a replacement checked in looked a little sketchy. I actually wanted more information before night.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #30) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:04 pm

Post by davesaz »

About halfway through night I figured that Fitz brushing off my comment that I'd never seen a wall from him made him less likely to be town btw.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #31) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:10 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 417, CheekyTeeky wrote: @Dave: readslist please bruh.
I got nothing.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #32) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:15 pm

Post by davesaz »

Saying I didn't approve of a policy lynch meant that I had a bona fide scumread on Tone. Kinda disappointed that I was wrong there, though TBH I've seen a couple people pull stunts before and I don't remember any of them actually being scum.
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Post Post #423 (isolation #33) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:16 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 421, davesaz wrote:
In post 417, CheekyTeeky wrote: @Dave: readslist please bruh.
I got nothing.
Actually I retract this: I think Jodaxq is town from d1.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #34) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:16 pm

Post by davesaz »

If you think a little, that can
only
be a townie reaction.
Hint: what alignment makes shit up? What alignment is best served with the truth?
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Post Post #430 (isolation #35) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:09 am

Post by davesaz »

North also pushed Schism, and one SK play is to kill someone you can plausibly have wanted to vig, in order to be able to claim that in a massclaim.
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Post Post #431 (isolation #36) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:15 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 427, cytheflyguy wrote:
In post 425, davesaz wrote:If you think a little, that can
only
be a townie reaction.
Hint: what alignment makes shit up? What alignment is best served with the truth?
In post 426, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 425, davesaz wrote:If you think a little, that can
only
be a townie reaction.
Hint: what alignment makes shit up? What alignment is best served with the truth?
*uses the force on dave*

What alignment doesn't give a shit about trying to sort players?
Think about it. What is easier as scum? Making something up even tho you know something else to be true or pretending like you know nothing so no one can hold you accountable for anything. Town can certainly not give fucks, don't get me wrong, but they also tend to try and find discrepancies as well. Like there's been this huge timegap of you saying you keep on not knowing anything/having light passive reads. You've made some valid posts, don't get me wrong, but like I have to give you a FoS for this, my dude.
Maybe you'd like to re-read your D1 and tell us who else didn't give much in the way of reads?
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Post Post #432 (isolation #37) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:16 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 283, davesaz wrote:
In post 282, Almost Chara wrote: the holidays may have affected his play
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Post Post #434 (isolation #38) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:59 am

Post by davesaz »

Assemble is the best candidate if we want to know who tone would be a threat to.
Mafia could make a framing kill if they had no obvious threats.
If the mafia kill was north then schism is a good candidate.
If mafia killed fits and vig was tone then it would have to be because mafia thought fitz would be widely townreads.
That’s all based on nka which is easier on mobile given quoting isn’t as necessary. Picking apart the thread will require a comp.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #39) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:04 am

Post by davesaz »

Correction... I forgot to look at who fitz would be a threat to so a mafia kill might result in a suspect. Gotta look more later.
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Post Post #437 (isolation #40) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:17 am

Post by davesaz »

Hmm, lemme look. Don't know if I got the names confused, or if it's correct names but a dead end.

I agree, but tinfoil is what it is. Generally it's ok to accept most likely hypothesis but don't discard the unlikely ones prior to some form of confirmation.

I think under NAR all kills that don't get intercepted earlier in resolution are simultaneous.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #41) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:19 am

Post by davesaz »

Name confusion, thanks. Clearly Assassin, not Assemble.
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Post Post #439 (isolation #42) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:34 am

Post by davesaz »

I think Sleepless Assassin's posting looks pretty towny, though I don't remember much meta here and it could be fake.

So a mafia kill on Tone out of fear looks unlikely, and I'm leaning towards Fitz killing there to be able to claim vig. A vig killing North would be pretty bad. So the most likely kill assignment is mafia on North, Fitz on Tone, and vig on Fitz. The only other combination that comes close to making sense is Fitz on North, Mafia on Tone, and vig on Fitz, but that requires mafia to kill someone who isn't openly townread by many people -- and it leads us nowhere anyway.

I think that I'd better stop, or I'm likely to tunnel on the NKA and while useful it's not sufficient to solve things on its own.
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Post Post #443 (isolation #43) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:49 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 441, Jodaxq wrote: I disagree about Assassin. I think his posting feels really fake.
Is this based on positions he has taken, or more a tone thing? If you can point to something specific it will help.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #44) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by davesaz »

That’s called posting when I have time to the extent that I have the time for.
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Post Post #447 (isolation #45) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:42 pm

Post by davesaz »

Hell yeah, Schism is probably scum.
Check out this interaction. I'll spoiler to cut down on the vertical space.
Spoiler: northsidegal/Schism
In post 174, northsidegal wrote:
In post 173, Schism wrote:Excluding IC and Myself:

Dave
Tone
Cy
Fitz
Voyc
Joda
------------------- Lynch Line
North (V/LA, probably safe for D1)
Chip
Elmo
Assemble
Assassin
why is fitz so high on the list? is it really just this?
In post 171, Schism wrote:People that talk about the randomness of RVS tend to be town, I read it as TvT. If anything, Joda would move down a peg if you want to argue its TvS, but right now I have Fitzy in my townreads for it.
why is voyc above joda and above the line? why am i below the line?
In post 176, Schism wrote:Everyone above you I have reads on.

Despite the RVS vote, I still stand with the fact that everyone on Assassin is town. I think the vote may be serious now since it hasn't been changed. My opinion of Joda dropped a little while I was writing up #172, because if you think Fitz/Joda was TvS, you should be looking at Joda first. I still think its TvT but I reserve to change that opinion if my reads on Assassin/Assemble are off.
In post 177, northsidegal wrote:by the way, retracting my meta-read on cy, even if it still leaves him as a slight townlean. he just finished a game as scum that definitely went against what i expected, so i'll have to look out more than i thought.

pedit:
Schism wrote:Everyone above you I have reads on.

Despite the RVS vote, I still stand with the fact that everyone on Assassin is town. I think the vote may be serious now since it hasn't been changed. My opinion of Joda dropped a little while I was writing up #172, because if you think Fitz/Joda was TvS, you should be looking at Joda first. I still think its TvT but I reserve to change that opinion if my reads on Assassin/Assemble are off.
you don't have a read on me but you have a read on voyc?
In post 178, Schism wrote:
northsidegal wrote: Despite the RVS vote, I still stand with the fact that everyone on Assassin is town. I think the vote may be serious now since it hasn't been changed. My opinion of Joda dropped a little while I was writing up #172, because if you think Fitz/Joda was TvS, you should be looking at Joda first. I still think its TvT but I reserve to change that opinion if my reads on Assassin/Assemble are off.
you don't have a read on me but you have a read on voyc?
Chara Town for First Vote, Elmo Scummy for copying, Assassin Scum
Well shit, I see I made another typo...

North, do you notice it?[/quote]
In post 179, northsidegal wrote:you meant me instead of chara for the first vote?
In post 181, Schism wrote:
Dave
Tone
Cy
Fitz
North (V/LA, probably safe for D1)

Voyc
Joda
------------------- Lynch Line
Chip
Elmo
Assemble
Assassin
Maybe we could move the line to Joda, but right now I want to hear from Assemble/Assassin.

P-Edit: Not really. I think you are thinking too hard about the placement of individual players above the line. I literally spaced you out for some reason. I guess your V/LA made you invisible to me :eek:

Look, I get my reads based off slight reads during and after RVS. It helps me establish reads early so I can focus on targets rather than the entire gamestate. Once we get some kills I can go back and review my reads.

I think north caught Schism here and that's what drove the kill selection.
Need to go back to reading Schism's iso to see how the rest of it went.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #46) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:25 pm

Post by davesaz »

Your insistence in being suspicious of me seems town in this context.
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Post Post #465 (isolation #47) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:03 pm

Post by davesaz »

Scumreads?
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Post Post #479 (isolation #48) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:54 pm

Post by davesaz »

Might be because mine had a messed up quote inside the spoiler, which really screws up the php when you put that inside another quote.

Schism, any response to the stuff I pointed out?
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Post Post #480 (isolation #49) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 467, Almost Chara wrote:FTR, I fully endorse Schism's lynch pool. I'd put Joda before dave though, but these are my 3 top SRs.

~A50
If you have anything but a townread on me after you're hopeless.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #50) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:27 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 180, northsidegal wrote:so wait, when you were making your readslist were you looking over your posts to see where to place everyone instead of just doing it by thoughts?
This observation, if true, would indicate the person she's posting about is scum.
In post 198, northsidegal wrote:HURT: schism
I interpret this as intent to investigate.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #51) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:29 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 485, Almost Chara wrote:
In post 480, davesaz wrote:
In post 467, Almost Chara wrote:FTR, I fully endorse Schism's lynch pool. I'd put Joda before dave though, but these are my 3 top SRs.

~A50
If you have anything but a townread on me after you're hopeless.
Why should I TR you for not having a readlist??

~A50
What is the intent of 421?
I asked this before and will ask it again -- what alignment is mostly concerned with being brutally honest?

However, I think I'll just table this for now. I don't really mind being scumread by people.
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Post Post #495 (isolation #52) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:11 pm

Post by davesaz »

What makes you think there will be a replacement there?
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Post Post #511 (isolation #53) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:16 pm

Post by davesaz »

I think joda is town from d1.
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Post Post #515 (isolation #54) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:01 pm

Post by davesaz »

Didn't you notice I've posted many times since then?
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Post Post #517 (isolation #55) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:01 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 492, Schism wrote:
Dave 419 wrote:I didn't really approve of the D1 lurker lynch, and thought there was a chance Fitz might be town until I saw the flip.
I'm thinking the hammer right after a replacement checked in looked a little sketchy. I actually wanted more information before night.

The above are dumbtells. Dave had to be aware that deadline was coming up. There was 4 hours between the replacement and Elmo's Hammer.
I'm many things, but dumb is not one of them. I suggest looking closer at the timestamps if you want to engage on things like this.

Replacement post was Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:39 am
Elmo's hammer at Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:00 pm
D1 Deadline (which can be found in earlier votecounts) was 2018-01-01 22:49:29

There was 1 day, 8 hours until deadline.

I repeat, hammering right after a replacement, with more than a day left on the clock, was a little sketchy.
Yeah I know it was new year's eve, but there was no rush. I would have hammered before deadline (more than a day later) if nobody else did to avoid a NL.
We could have had more information, whether the lynch itself changed or not.
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Post Post #518 (isolation #56) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:15 pm

Post by davesaz »

ISO'd Elmo, weak scum read. Took the hammer as soon as someone else gave intent, without leaving CheekyTeeky a chance to say anything. Started D2 with a post which in retrospect does look like a slip of Mafia knowing that the SK had to be the vig target.

I think I did that ISO too fast, wanna look again...
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Post Post #519 (isolation #57) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:17 pm

Post by davesaz »

And yes I saw someone else come to the same conclusion that I did on who did which kill. Elmo's post was among the very first of the day, before anyone should have had the chance to think through which kill was which.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #58) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:40 pm

Post by davesaz »

davesaz - town
Elmo TeH AzN - weak scum
Chip Butty - undecided
Schism - medium scum
Sleepless Assassin - weak town
CheekyTeeky - weak town
Jodaxq - medium town
cytheflyguy - undecided
Almost Chara - conf town

Undecided does
not
mean null. It means I have not worked on that slot.
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Post Post #528 (isolation #59) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:04 pm

Post by davesaz »

I got some time to iso cytheflyguy. I don't see much useful there at all. I'd say it's worth a weak scum read.
In post 428, cytheflyguy wrote: Now with that, we can assume scum killed tonereader. Now we must find out who had the biggest motivation to kill them and start from there.
This is an attempt to divert attention away from the idea of looking at who northsidegal would be a threat to.
Most likely a partner to whomever would be tagged by that analysis.
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Post Post #529 (isolation #60) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:16 pm

Post by davesaz »

ISOing Chip Butty was equally easy.

It's pretty easy to assign a read. There will probably be people who dislike this, but I have to say it's "null overwhelmed by RL". If nobody was interested in lynching in my scumreads, I'd be willing to compromise here.

Updated list:
davesaz - town
Elmo TeH AzN - weak scum
Chip Butty - null leaning scum
Schism - medium scum
Sleepless Assassin - weak town
CheekyTeeky - weak town
Jodaxq - medium town
cytheflyguy - weak scum
Almost Chara - conf town
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Post Post #530 (isolation #61) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:18 pm

Post by davesaz »

Almost Chara, can you please give some independent reads instead of sheeping the other players?
I don't need them to be correct reads, but I do need them to be
your
reads.
Especially need detail on Jodaxq.
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Post Post #532 (isolation #62) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:24 pm

Post by davesaz »

I'd take any and all input on Schism as well please.
Even though that's my strongest scumread in terms of having reasons, it's also least confidence in being correct that the reasons point to scum.
Before anyone gets any ideas, this is
not
a logical inconsistency. Largest quantity does not correlate to highest accuracy. In terms of accuracy I'm most confident in Elmo, it's just not a lot of quantity.

VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN
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Post Post #535 (isolation #63) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:30 pm

Post by davesaz »

My conclusion on Tone being the SK kill is driven more by correct SK play than by mafia strategy.
As SK you must kill someone you can plausibly say it is pro-town to kill. The optimum way to explain the extra kill is by claiming vig. (I got down close to lylo as SK in this setup using exactly that strategy)

It could be that you're correct on the reason for NSG to be killed by mafia -- which reduces the value of searching for specific players to want her gone.
I'm actually more interested in going a different route for now.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #64) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 534, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 532, davesaz wrote:I'd take any and all input on Schism as well please.
Even though that's my strongest scumread in terms of having reasons, it's also least confidence in being correct that the reasons point to scum.
Before anyone gets any ideas, this is
not
a logical inconsistency. Largest quantity does not correlate to highest accuracy. In terms of accuracy I'm most confident in Elmo, it's just not a lot of quantity.

VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN
Wtf? Just Wtf? I don't understand this. Anyway I'm going to give the thread some room to breathe and observe you all for a bit.
Nah, don't just bail. What don't you understand?
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Post Post #539 (isolation #65) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:58 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 537, CheekyTeeky wrote:UNVOTE: Jodaxq

Just in case...O_o

Pedit I don't understand your waffle about why you're voting your weak scum read instead of your medium scum read...
One person's waffle is another person's accuracy. I value giving town things to work with if I'm dead. It's another aspect of what I told A50 -- the best way to play town is not to throw a bunch of excrement and read people off how they react to it. The best way is to say only things that you actually mean. Although sometimes the right place for a vote is not the strongest read, for any number of possible reasons.

You might think this gets me scumread a lot, and it does. People do not expect honesty from town, and they go bananas when they see it. :roll:

Spoiler: look inside if you want the "math"
It's an intel thing -- you multiply the amount of information by the reliability to get a strength. It isn't actually "numbers" but that's the best way to explain it.
I see a large quantity of stuff in Schism (say 5 for example). I am not highly confident that what I'm seeing is AI (say 1 for example). I multiply number of things by confidence. Rating=5
I see a much smaller quantity of stuff in Elmo (perhaps only 1), but am more confident that it is AI (strength 3). Multiplying gives a rating of 3.
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Post Post #543 (isolation #66) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:50 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 541, Almost Chara wrote:@dave: Did you ISO me?
Yes. I see
nothing
given as a foundation for your Jodaxq scumread, "Chara likes his tone" as reason for a Schism TR, and very little reasoning for any other read.
The Jodaxq is the one which looks the most like sheeping. Other people gave that scumread and then you just agreed with it, no reason given.
Being an IC does not absolve you of saying why you scumread someone. I need to know the why to know which of us is wrong on these reads in particular.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #67) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:31 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 50, Jodaxq wrote:
In post 49, havingfitz wrote:I know what random means.

I think you voted yourself to avoid offending anyone else and called it random to eliminate any responsibility in voting yourself.

How did you randomly pick yourself? Eenie meenie miney mo? 13 sided dice?
I flipped a coin and it came up odds.
At this point the self-vote is very clearly a reaction test. Scum don't need to do reaction tests.
In post 69, Jodaxq wrote:
In post 65, Chip Butty wrote:I'm not sure I've been in a situation quite like this before.

Jodaxq: can you expand on your method? Were multiple coin flips involved?
What situation?

Why is the method I used important?
In post 112, Jodaxq wrote:I'd like to point out that my self-vote was clearly not useless
Reinforcing that the self vote had a reason.
In post 159, Jodaxq wrote:
In post 142, davesaz wrote:
In post 140, Jodaxq wrote:
In post 135, davesaz wrote:If chip was serious the note to mod needs to be
bolded
. If not serious then I leave the analysis of that to others who have seen it.

Jodaxq, is there anyone remaining who hasn't commented on your self vote / random thing? I'd like to go deeper there but don't want to disturb it if you're waiting for something.

Pedit: the comment was more about the naked vote than the Elmo stuff.
No I think I've seen something from everyone. What did you want to explore?
Showing awareness of who had reacted, and curiosity about why I'm asking.
It looks like an obvious reaction test to me. Which means you should be doing something about the reactions.
I plan to do the same but have been distracted by a new pack being put up on the minecraft server.
I think Sleepless Assassin had the worst reaction. His post of "have you never been scum or am I missing a game?" kind of implies that he knows I'm not scum in this game. I also don't like how someone scum read him for being a try hard, he responded with "yeah I get that a lot," and then proceeded to disappear, only saying anything when he was asked a question directly. My vote is on him currently, but it's not parked there.
I don't like havingfitz's reaction either. The reasoning behind the self vote and then the bs reason (yes I know I can't flip a coin to randomize 13 players and yes I know a coin cannot come up odds) is to see if anyone will try to push for the easy lynch of someone who did something that obviously stood out. The fact that Fitz tried to rationalize a scum motivation for it (avoiding offending anyone) and is still trying to get some traction on it looks scummy.
Elmo's reaction seemed a little more like genuine confusion, but she had a similar reaction to Fitz.
I think Chip's response was town as he voted me to kind of get it on the joke and then unvoted when he had an idea of what was going on.
I'm unsure on Schism. I want to say that a scum who realized what was going on would react in the way s/he did.
Almost Chara was clearly scummy as hell.
Everyone else's reactions or lack thereof I would say are NAI.
And it was actually used to get reads. She even included yet another obvious reaction test in her response. (calling the IC scummy)

Does something that would be risky for scum, for a town motivation, and using the results for a town purpose.
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Post Post #558 (isolation #68) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:08 am

Post by davesaz »

OK I can follow that, but by the same logic, mafia killed NSG which means Jodaxq is not implicated in having killed Fitz.
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Post Post #559 (isolation #69) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:10 am

Post by davesaz »

Does Elmo, Chip, and cytheflyguy make sense a a scumteam?

(Yeah, I
don't
hunt scumteams, but other people do and this is who my scumreads would be if Schism is taken off the list)
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Post Post #582 (isolation #70) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:56 am

Post by davesaz »

Good post generally. On mobile so read it quickly.
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Post Post #585 (isolation #71) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:49 am

Post by davesaz »

If a (weak) townread of mine is wrong, it's probably Sleepless Assassin. What do you think about him?
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Post Post #595 (isolation #72) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:57 pm

Post by davesaz »

Schism hasn't posted in more than 4 days.

That VC smells like both Elmo and Cy are scum. If they were both town and townreading each other I'd expect them to try to agree on an alternative wagon. Town and scumreading each other should be voting each other.
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Post Post #601 (isolation #73) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:53 am

Post by davesaz »

Maybe we should go ahead and lynch scum!
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Post Post #608 (isolation #74) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:38 pm

Post by davesaz »

Does that mean you townread cy? Why?
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Post Post #611 (isolation #75) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:50 am

Post by davesaz »

Only 1 day 4 hours left.
I'm willing to switch as needed. I have scumreads on both.
The lack of activity is pretty disheartening. I know I'm contributing to that but still...
Was hoping for CheekyTeeky's cases "in a few hours".
Was hoping for AC to say something more about the wagon.
Not happy with Sleepless Assassin not making an effort to push Elmo's wagon if he doesn't like Cy.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #76) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:58 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 612, Sleepless Assassin wrote:What is my entire ISO if not pushing an Elmo Lynch?
There are places in your ISO where you say things about Elmo, and places where you don't want others. Not things that I'd call a push.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #77) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:04 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 613, Almost Chara wrote:I have no idea what to do at this point.
I'm far from stellar this game, so this is a bit hypocritical of me, but I'd say the what to do is give reads and vote a scumread. Flapping our hands isn't going to get us anywhere. I have to start an extended run of driving my kids all around town, so I'll be mostly away for several hours. I will try to make more concrete posts on my positions when I get back.

@MOD: I agree that an extension would be appropriate if a replacement is expected.
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Post Post #621 (isolation #78) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:19 am

Post by davesaz »

I made a setup post. Claims are a bad idea. Scum already know how many letters so a partial claim outs the pr to scum without any real town benefit.
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Post Post #631 (isolation #79) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:01 pm

Post by davesaz »

Saying yes to the 1-shot or not 1-shot question tells scum who that PR is (which they don't know) and also the existence of 1-shot indirectly tells which kind of PR (which they don't know).
Everyone saying no to that question pegs the extra letters (if there are extras) as a full role and tells scum more about what the role(s) could be than town (because scum know how many letters but not what combinationm while town don't even know how many letters).

I do complicated logic for a living. Please don't mess things up by leaking info that doesn't need to be leaked. There is no circumstance where this info helps us find scum, which is our only task at this point in the game.
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Post Post #634 (isolation #80) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:16 pm

Post by davesaz »

Do you retract your call for further claims?
What's done is done, but let's not compound things by letting the brush fire grow any further.

In the meantime gotta check something...
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Post Post #636 (isolation #81) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:25 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 635, CheekyTeeky wrote:Are you being intentionally obtuse? Or are you trying to pretend we don't already know the set-up?
If this is directed at me, no I'm dead serious. We don't know if it's 1T or 3T, and if it's 1T we don't know what the extra letters represent.
If you do know that then you have too much information to be town.

The thing I needed to check was whether you're outed as an alt.
Is the join date accurate? Much mafia experience?
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Post Post #643 (isolation #82) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by davesaz »

After the game I'll expect an apology. You're doing the stupidest shit than an IC can do.
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Post Post #644 (isolation #83) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by davesaz »

However, I will say that it does appear to have netted us scum. Sometimes being dead wrong can result in good things, I guess.
VOTE: CheekyTeeky
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Post Post #652 (isolation #84) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:53 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 649, Almost Chara wrote:@dave: What convinced you Cheeky was Scum?
The same thing as you, or at least I think it's what you see. She has too much information to be town.

The VT claim I can forgive, from a relatively new player (if her claim that this is her main is accurate). I was actually going to go that way, it was the purpose of the alt/experience question. A relatively new player, or an experienced one who doesn't have a good background in being able to enumerate the possible setups, might assume that saying they are VT is helpful / doesn't hurt.
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Post Post #653 (isolation #85) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:55 pm

Post by davesaz »

STOP ASKING ABOUT 1-SHOTS
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Post Post #664 (isolation #86) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:25 pm

Post by davesaz »

I missed the statistics thing.
UNVOTE: CheekyTeeky

If we don't get an extension, it's well under 24 hours.
VOTE: Cytheflyguy
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Post Post #674 (isolation #87) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:01 am

Post by davesaz »

Only 6 hours left. :eek:
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Post Post #680 (isolation #88) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:25 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 677, Almost Chara wrote:Let's make one thing clear: I'm NOT going to vote cy. Schism is inactive, and cy isn't going to vote himself. It will take the whole scum team to be on cy for him to get lynched.

VOTE JODA
I'm equally unwilling to vote Joda. That's my strongest non-IC townread.
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Post Post #681 (isolation #89) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:26 am

Post by davesaz »

Technically my strongest townread, given AC's reads are pretty much the worst reads I've ever seen from a conftown.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #90) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:37 am

Post by davesaz »

How about Elmo + Cy + ???
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Post Post #689 (isolation #91) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:41 pm

Post by davesaz »

Has OGML given a read there? Don’t forget SA as well. I’m on tablet so looking rn is harder.
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Post Post #691 (isolation #92) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:13 pm

Post by davesaz »

We should spend some of this time forcing scum to either join or not join wagons.

UNVOTE: cytheflyguy
VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN
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Post Post #704 (isolation #93) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:43 am

Post by davesaz »

I believe that Elmo had already self-hammered. Mod should do more diligence when popping into the thread, like updating VC along with announcing intent to replace, or the replacement.
At least we get to find out something about the replacement in twilight.
Please do what you can in the time available.
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Post Post #930 (isolation #94) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:09 am

Post by davesaz »

@OGML, I agree you did a good job replacing in.

@Almost, I vigged Fitz, for the reason I gave in the thread. And sorry I was a little harsh at times. But right lol.
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Post Post #942 (isolation #95) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:18 am

Post by davesaz »

Scum shoots the doc in that case, especially when the IC is tunneled on town. But at that point you didn't know who scum was and it might have worked if Joda was scum.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #96) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:24 pm

Post by davesaz »

Hmm, do mods normally release hydra pt's?
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Post Post #966 (isolation #97) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:29 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 964, Sleepless Assassin wrote:Why did Dave die N2 if scum tried shooting Almost Chara?
Wow, I checked the scum thread and that is what they submitted. Unless it was a PM after that point.

Not to worry, first game I modded the scum team changed their kill and I accidentally announced the wrong flip. Most embarrassing moment on MS. We carried on though, don't remember who won that game.
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