Open 709: Masons and Monks (Game Over)

[davesaz]

VOTE: Assemblerotws
For lurking the next two weeks.

[davesaz]

Well, at least Jay+momo and Jay+Moz are not valid scum team combinations.

Why wouldn't they?

[davesaz]

Well, at least Jay+momo and Jay+Moz are not valid scum team combinations.

Why wouldn't they?

dave, please. We're still on page 2 so it's not even that hard to read the whole thing. Busing is not an option on D1 for a 2-players scum team, and it's not like either is pushing Jay for the fun of it.

A bus is only really a bus when it results in a lynch nor near-lynch.
Scum vote their partners all the time in a low-risk environment. Surely you must know that.

[davesaz]

I also, don't get the "purpose" of your argument, dave. I didn't declare anyone Tpwn or near Town. I only said these were unlikely pairing for one scum team. They could still be all Scum from different factions (Jay being on one side and either or both moz & momo on the other). No big deal, I think.

I've seen town fall into complacency over dubious theory and routinely point out those types of things. It's more a cautionary thing than a big deal.

[davesaz]

Uhh... I commented on it too, Mister Beef. Three others (one being Assemble himself) agreed.

But hey, whether he's the fun police, or I fucked up his joke instead, is up for the audience to decide! A prompt will appear, so be sure to check under your seats and vote

Yay

or

Nay

on your company given tablets!

Yay

for him being the fun police or

Nay

being he made a joke and I fucked it up.

this all looks very nervous and self conscious.
serious vote.
VOTE: jaydragon

This observation is a good one, though it's too early to tell what alignment the observation is indicative of.

[davesaz]

But on to the reason I posted that question...you once told me that you keep the wiki open in all open games every single time you post..I asked if you were sure and you defended yourself when I thought that was an unreasonable statement

you were town

now, you do not have the wiki open making a post about multiball, in an open game...

this is how you catch scum people

VOTE: jaydragonking
SERIOUS VOTE

I have an opinion about what this is, but I'm going to keep it to myself for a bit.

[davesaz]

Well the only other possible wagon is assemble....

Let's vote him to get him to post

VOTE: assemblerotws

And an opinion on this too.

[davesaz]

You can't possibly do all that simultaneously when you're only a Capricorn! Only a GEMINI can do that kind of multitasking with any efficiency!

almost looks same as was when he was town.
so early provisional town read.

ok no onelooks particularly scummy so far, so lurker vote
VOTE: dunnstral

There's never to much Role-play, Archie.

Into the Volcano with you!

total 180 from me, but he is probably town.
Moz, Almost, jay town.

Weak gut scum vibe on this sequence. Buddying, and trying to make a town block. And the lurker vote thing.

[davesaz]

Wait, is that actually a hydra? I didn't really pay attention to the signup.

[davesaz]

Too many people on the list that I've never seen to make a properly informed choice.

I'd go with a talker though, so clearly not Dunnstral or Assemble. Probably Almost50 or Beefster. They won't get lynched for inactivity and if I had to bus there would be a way to make it seem reasonable.

[davesaz]

I have town reads on Almost & Mozamis. Don't really want to go into too much detail.
Jay weak town, I'll need to monitor to see if it's just playstyle.
Momo typically feels scummy, and does. I don't like the gambler's fallacy part, someone already pointed that out though.
Archwing beetlejuiced, but the explanation for why seems realistic. Monitor the motivation of future posting.

That's what I remember, and I too am at work (on a computer though which does make it slightly easier).

[davesaz]

If I were thinking that, wouldn't it be rather antitown for someone else to just blurt out that it's what they think I'm thinking?
As for what I'm thinking, it's a "neither confirm nor deny" kinda thing.

Pedit: uh oh, thread's taken off, hope that doesn't mean that I'm gonna fall way behind on all these upcoming days where I have appointments.

[davesaz]

A bus is only really a bus when it results in a lynch nor near-lynch.
Scum vote their partners all the time in a low-risk environment. Surely you must know that.

I feel like I like what dave is posting in a "thank god theres someone sensible" but it doesnt go much deeper than that when I feel like I should be townreading him for it. Thats kinda sketch.

I find it quite reasonable to have mixed feelings about this. It is exactly what it says on the tin, a sensible point of view on the topic it was responding to. What you're not seeing from me at that point in time is analysis of whether the activity I was replying to was AI or not. There isn't enough of said activity, or other information surrounding it, to know yet if it's AI. Am I motivated by defending it, or motivated by protecting town from misconceptions formed too early. Try judging the post in that light and see if it helps.

Weak gut scum vibe on this sequence. Buddying, and trying to make a town block. And the lurker vote thing.

Why does town not do that sequence?

That's exactly why I qualified it as a weak vibe, town could do it too. I think it's slightly more likely for that player to do it as scum in that circumstance. It's gut because I know I have this opinion but can't back it up with reasoning. (If you haven't played with me before, strong reasoning typically doesn't show up on

anything

until there is a flip, night actions, or claims; reasoning in general typically waits until at least a couple RL days and/or a big wagon comes and goes).

[davesaz]

I think I've played with you before on my main (notscience bc this acc's already fucked) but anyways

Pretty sure that goes back all the way to one of my early games on the site when I signed up and the game took long enough to start that I was sent to China on business.

[davesaz]

Multiball is weird and given the masons/monks, full reads are anti-town.

Another misconception.
The mason/monk mechanic can't help with generic town/scum, but it does help with not mafia / not werewolf reads. In that sense having reasons for townreads isn't strictly anti-town.
I usually scumread incorrect mechanics advice from other players, though TBH it's probably more likely that town makes those kinds of mistakes purely based on their greater numbers.

[davesaz]

Jay is posting but not saying anything relevant and seems to be avoiding the actual discussion topics, lean scum.
Kotoko seems to be trying to get reads, weak town but keeping an eye on whether it's leading questions.
I skimmed Mathdino too much and therefore didn't get an alignment feel. Gonna need to look again.

[davesaz]

I'd be up for a Beef Lynch, I guess.

--- Post Edit ---

Welp, 138 convinced me completely.

VOTE: Beefster

What about 138 did you like?
Is this a real scumread? You didn't seem to have any opinion before this. Any thoughts on what Beefster has posted more recently?

Spoiler:

It's only fair that I say what I think in conjunction with the Beef wagon. I'm ambivalent on Beefster at that point and think that wagons serve a purpose regardless of the alignment of the target -- obviously scum is better. I have noticed the Dino/Beef discussion but I'm tired right now and would rather do my deep thinking later.

[davesaz]

Beefster might indeed be scum. His posting seems to not be very well-rounded. The post about

selectively scumhunting

would be ironic if he's scum, because that kinda seems to be what he's doing.

[davesaz]

If Beef is town, talon and Raya look the most opportunistic of the people on the wagon.

[davesaz]

I'm less confident of mozamis as town after looking at it in iso.
Dunn can be lurky and a streak poster, but I find the 2nd post promise of a read-up to be a little sketchy.

[davesaz]

^ Scum reaction?

[davesaz]

Dave just decided to point an arrow saying "scum reaction" is what made him uneasy to me.

You left out the question mark, which is extremely important.
I'm commenting strictly on your reaction. If this connection is nonexistent why react so strongly to it?

[davesaz]

If scum are in the people with single digit posts I'd rather not let them get away without having to contribute d1.
I've changed my mind on the Beef lynch and think it is OK, but we have plenty of time to work with.
Technically nobody's due a prod, you can tell clearly by looking at the activity page.

[davesaz]

Very interesting to say the least. Hard to say whether it's meant to fool us into thinking that further discussion is dangerous for his team, if it's actually true that it's dangerous.

[davesaz]

Possible that his partner pissed him off with a hard bus. Contrary to popular belief that is not impossible in a 2 person scumteam especially if the partner is widely townread.

[davesaz]

Though in MB I guess it's more dangerous to be townread than usual.

[davesaz]

TBH those posts aren't aimed at anyone in particular being the partner. I don't have an especially good handle on scum this game.

[davesaz]

Yes that's possible. It could just be 3 of the 4 lurkers are the remaining scum.

[davesaz]

And what I'm saying is that these are somewhat accurate from a pure point of view but it's bad to assume that it's impossible to be wrong.

[davesaz]

I'm gonna tinfoil that D1 Mathdino could easily have been Beef's partner.

[davesaz]

Iso'd Kotoko -- complained about A50's read. Iso'd Almost50 -- pointed a strong association case at Kotoko.
Along with being someone who pushed the cw on a lurker, good enough for me.

VOTE: Kotoko Utsugi

to do list:
reread Archwing & Raya
Check activity list to see if our wayward lurkers have been gone long enough to request a prod.

[davesaz]

If Kotoko was upset with A50 because A50's scumread is for the wrong reason, then could still be mafia instead of ww.

[davesaz]

I am thinking more clearly now. probably.

VOTE: momo
I think he's playing dumb on #100 and #127. wtf on #270. demands jay put their vote on me on #276
That's all for now.

fos: A50 for misrepresenting Archwing.
fos: JaydragonKing for being self-conscious about perceived alignment and voting/omgusing everybody like a force of chaos.

Man, you make it really hard to advocate against your wagon. Pretty sure this is one of the worst posts in this thread. Momo is 100% not today's lynch. A50 explained the alleged misrep on me. What you've described is literally how Jay plays. It's like you didn't really read.

Possible partner post. Has been pushing assemble which happens to be the only viable CW.

[davesaz]

i'm defintley against a Kot wagon.

Oh, you have a town read here?

[davesaz]

I'm happy with my vote.

[davesaz]

Dunn is universally lurky afaik.

[davesaz]

I think we're likely to hit scum in Kotoko / Archwing. Maybe both.
Would have to check vc to find out whose votes are in play.

[davesaz]

Technically I have no need to defend myself. It is better for town if I’m not lynched, but not the end of the world.

[davesaz]

Logically I’m obvtown.

[davesaz]

I don't give a flying fuck what you think.


^^^ explanation.

Can we lynch the obvious scum and quit giving scum an opening for thinking they might get an obvious mislynch.

[davesaz]

Me and Dino are also both on Koko, Dave. We legit can't do anything about it.

My point is, dangling other options like me in front of scum at a time like this isn't good.
Force them to be either on or off the wagon we already have.

That said, I do keep my supply of tinfoil handy. Nobody is conf, not even Mathdino. I have lost lylos in the past to people who are too town to be scum.

[davesaz]

Logically I’m obvtown.

no you've done very little

You lack the perspective of having played with me before.

[davesaz]

Analysis in progress but I'm recovering from a campout.

[davesaz]

If scum are in the people with single digit posts I'd rather not let them get away without having to contribute d1.
I've changed my mind on the Beef lynch and think it is OK, but we have plenty of time to work with.
Technically nobody's due a prod, you can tell clearly by looking at the activity page.

I posted this literally the first online thing I did waking up that morning. I wanted the day to go longer to have more time to scumhunt. Beef self hammered about an hour later, while I was getting started with work. I firmly believe that beef tried to prevent us from looking further into the people we wanted to be prodded.

[davesaz]

Coupled with my previous post:

Alright...

@mod: requesting a prod on assemble, dunn, raya, and talon

Probably. Any theory, Momo? You love to do conspiracies, so this is up your alley.

If I were to guess, it would be Raya...hopped onto this wagon with a semi-justification but still was a REALLY oppurtunistic vote...reeked scum

If not raya than maybe talon...his vote was oppurtunistic but it felt more n00b as well

I'm extremely curious about Mathdino still being alive. If Mathdino is town, both scum teams worried that the other would kill him so they both picked someone else? Both nights? Why would they do that when they can kill town's driving force? Even if they risk a double kill, getting rid of the strongest town is the best strategy in most cases.

[davesaz]

Both might even be lurkers and we're making it too hard for ourselves.
Sketch that one of the teams is choosing nk's on lurkers / lynchbait though.
I'm at a stage where I wanna believe the obvious answer is just true, but I'm still worried that someone (dino cough) is on a big take control of town and manipulate us to our doom thing.

[davesaz]

What is the obvious answer to you?

That the obv town are town.

[davesaz]

Assemble and (archwing or raya) scum would be my highest probability answer.

[davesaz]

I’m waiting to vote archwing until y’all are done. Or we can do assemble instead.

[davesaz]

Sum total of Assemble's beef interactions: nothing

Seriously, look at the iso.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Mathdino

[davesaz]

Im town. Vote or don't vote i dont care. Dino is scum. End of day.

[davesaz]

Yes.

[davesaz]

Throw the game if you want. IDGAF. This is as town me as it gets.

[davesaz]

I'm off the table.

[davesaz]

Self hammer in 5

[davesaz]

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=70536
I don't respond well to fools.

[davesaz]

I'm on mobile, a little upset, willing to bet that everything posted about me is true except alignment.

I have nothing to say while l-1.

[davesaz]

Tell me, mr scum, how is it that you’re alive?
Oh right, because you’re scum.
Town: sheep me when I flip.
Mathdino is confscum.
And if I’m wrong he deserves the town loss but don’t let scumdino win.

[davesaz]

Still town.

[davesaz]

Lynch dino

[davesaz]

Nope, beef was pissed that dino bussed him.
Lynching the other scum does not count.
Town, if you want to win you must lynch dino.

[davesaz]

You're the rock star of the game, not being killed is the 1st clue that you're scum. No way scum

plans

to get to lylo with someone who led every lynch.
I've been calling this since D2. Your mistake was killing dunn instead of me. You thought it would be easy to lynch me (true) but failed to realize that I would be able to pin it on you before I was gone.

[davesaz]

You've actually played a great scum game and a great town game, but you're still scum. That's the only explanation for still being here.

[davesaz]

And yes, beef didn't know you were going to do it, and it's plausible you wanted mafia to kill you if your main goal was to make it a quick game for you.

[davesaz]

Evidence points to it not being a gamethrow, given you've almost won.
Saying that bussing is a gamethrow is a gross overstatement, if you think you can win it.
Both sides should kill you if you're town. There is literally no reason not to, because they're headed for a slow but guaranteed loss.

[davesaz]

Still @dino:
In the unlikely chance that you are town, you've overlooked someone.
But I'd rather give the win to that someone so I don't retract my dying wish.

I was on mobile, at l-1, and asked to be unvoted to be able to respond. Don't piss me off, ever.

[davesaz]

I can't post more than 1-liners while on mobile.

[davesaz]

I can't call acting like that a "banned activity" but take a look at the game I linked, where town was lynching me and I refused to give a case because I didn't want bad reads to hurt town.
When backed into a corner as town I do things that scum can't/won't ever do. Not my fault if town misread that when it's as clear as 3 inch type above the fold.

[davesaz]

I had figured out it wasn't raya before the lock.

In the unlikely chance that you are town, you've overlooked someone.

[davesaz]

Mathdino, it slipped away the moment you decided to lynch the only person who suspected you in your first post of D4. From my point of view as town, suspecting you and being vocal about it is something scum absolutely cannot do. You're never going to be lynched, even if you are scum. When you refused to accept that town!me would (and should!) suspect scum!you to my dying breath but scum!me would never attack town!you (especially with Raya sitting there as an easy mislynch), you sealed town's fate. That reinforced my conviction that you had to be scum getting rid of your only threat.

Jay's reaction to my "you're overlooking someone" should also have been a big blinking beacon.

On top of all of the above, I think the NK's framed me perfectly, whether that was the intent or not.

[davesaz]

Mathdino, it slipped away the moment you decided to lynch the only person who suspected you in your first post of D4. From my point of view as town, suspecting you and being vocal about it is something scum absolutely cannot do. You're never going to be lynched, even if you are scum. When you refused to accept that town!me would (and should!) suspect scum!you to my dying breath but scum!me would never attack town!you (especially with Raya sitting there as an easy mislynch), you sealed town's fate. That reinforced my conviction that you had to be scum getting rid of your only threat.

Beefster did the exact same thing. So did Archwing. And maybe Kotoko but that's prob wrong. Should I have backed off of them?

I ignore what people say when they're on the stand for exactly this reason. Scum will say whatever it's least likely for scum to do in that situation. D1 associations clearly implicated you, and almost all of the town seemed to strongly agree with that.

The only thing that gets me to ease up on people is them giving me better options. I wanted to hear what your take was (on me and others), but you seemed uninterested in providing that.

Also, people seem to think I'm unlynchable even as scum when they just don't have enough scum-me meta to tell, lol.

I think you're misinterpreting something.
I'm referring to the D3/D4 environment, not from the beginning of the game. D3 when you're still alive after being the only true obvtown the whole game, I was the only person to actually push you. Others may have offered token not-obvtown reads, but I'm the one explicitly saying those lynches don't make you town and being alive makes you scum. Town does that, not scum -- scum usually let themselves be dragged onto the mislynch bait because there's nothing better going on.

But in retrospect maybe I can't expect you to know that I'm the

never

say never/always/confirmed/obvious guy.