Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[sheepsaysmeep]

*fitz's "townslip" can be faked

[Srceenplay]

No

[Hawk]

No stop what sheep? also I'm town and from my PoV I gain more from answering dinos question than not. You being against this without reasoning is just plain bad regardless of alignment.

[sheepsaysmeep]

no stahp to him interpreting fitz's thing as a townslip
i corrected myself
i said i'd wait for other people's opinions to claim

[Srceenplay]

No

Sorry that wasn’t clear.

Tracker, Gunsmith, 1-shot Commuter

No

[Mathdino]

Really appreciate your buy-in despite earlier pushback.

If EVERYONE answers 'no' to that question (it would further help if we could assume no vengefuls but I'm not sure we can yet):

The only possible scenarios in which we have a 3-man scumteams are the following PR distributions:
IIHKRPT
IIHKPPT
IIHRPPT
IIHPPPT
IIKRPPT
IIKPPPT
IIRPPPT
IIPPPPT
IHKRPPT
IHKPPPT
IHRPPPT
IHPPPPT
IKRPPPT
IKPPPPT
IRPPPPT
IPPPPPT (lol if any kills happened at all in this setup)

I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that we have multiple protectives given that there were 2 kills on high-townread players last night. Strongman kill is possible but there was also the SK kill.

So in the situation that everyone answers no,

we probably have just 1 scum left.

[sheepsaysmeep]

probably
:/

[Mathdino]

And on a final note, if we assume no vengefuls on the basis that no one counterclaimed Jay (if people still argue with me on this I'm gonna call for vengeful claim):
IIHRPPT
IIHPPPT
IIRPPPT
IIPPPPT
IHRPPPT
IHPPPPT
IRPPPPT
IPPPPPT

All of which are highly unlikely and force the existence of many docs/JKs.

Edit: Sheep, are you one of the 3?

[sheepsaysmeep]

nope

[Mathdino]

no stop that can be easily faked

nah i want other ppl to talk abt this first

If so, he's faking a complete total misunderstanding of the setup. He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible. It's obviously not.

There are certain mistakes people make that are almost impossible to fake. If I literally can't understand how someone could come to such a mistake (this happens a lot in math errors) it's almost certainly real.

I'm not suggesting that if we prove there's only 1 mafia left, everyone claiming 2-man scumteams is town. That can very obviously be faked given that we've been assuming 3-man scumteams since the beginning of D1.

[AnonymousGhost]

No I am not the Tracker, Gunsmith, or 1-shot Commuter.

[sheepsaysmeep]

lmao read momo's iso
he's been coasting for a longass time

The fuck do you think coasting is?

His D2 play has consisted of:

1. Being the first one to genuinely come up with a Screenplay case
2. Attacking shit votes on me (and then pushing Screenplay with more reasons)
3. Expanding his cone of vision and giving other reads/options
4. Defending against shit accusations against himself.

this sequence i didnt like
he doesnt even check the iso to try to see what im talking about; he just automatically confidently defends momo
like usually if town was somehow this confident in this read they would stop and think?

[Mathdino]

I entirely checked the ISO. I came back and wrote that post informed by it (check the timestamps, that's the amount of time I spent checking). Do you want me to defend each number?

Don't assume I'm doing as little work as you are. If you want to rebut me or defend your point, YOU go quotewall the ISO.

[UnaBombaH]

Not any of those roles.

[Mathdino]

shit i think we actually have 1 mafia left wow

[Impede]

i openly admit to having skimmed all of ag's walls for like 3 seconds
but i dont really like how she's just put out 2 readlists and basically she's just summarizing stuff or asking questions
like it definitely doesnt feel like it's posted with the intention of finding scum

How can you possibly know this without reading it?

[Impede]

And on a final note, if we assume no vengefuls on the basis that no one counterclaimed Jay (if people still argue with me on this I'm gonna call for vengeful claim):
IIHRPPT
IIHPPPT
IIRPPPT
IIPPPPT
IHRPPPT
IHPPPPT
IRPPPPT
IPPPPPT

All of which are highly unlikely and force the existence of many docs/JKs.

Edit: Sheep, are you one of the 3?

Why the deuce would anyone counterclaim him?! You keep saying this but the odds of being in KK are not low AT ALL (21%). Like what? Why the hell would a Vengeful ESPECIALLY counterclaim on a 21% chance that their claim results in NOT ONE, but TWO MLs. Your logic is weird.

[Impede]

inb4 Sheep/Math scumteam

[Mathdino]

Lol this is gonna be fun. Pardon my excitement, I was a competition kid

Probability of multiple killing roles (pre-Tracker-death) is equal to (1 - P(1K) - P(0K)).
P(1K) = 7*0.1*0.9^6 = 37.2%
P(0K) = 0.9^7 = 47.8%

P(>2K) = 1-0.372-0.478 = 0.15 = 15%.

Meh. Not actually super unlikely but still pretty damn unlikely and enough, IMO, to lynch Jay over it. If I were a Vengeful, I'd have instantly counterclaimed his ass.

Not really relevant now. If we need to we'll get Vengeful claims but I'm thinking we won't need to. You any of the 3 (Tracker, Gunsmith, 1-shot Commuter)? Remember to only answer Yes/No.

[Impede]

No.

This feels like a genuine attempt at gamebreaking right now, but what does it change if we know that we have 1 vs 2 remaining maf? What are you going to do differently?

[Impede]

Lol this is gonna be fun.

I used 3/20 instead of 1/10. Whoops. Still...

[Mathdino]

Glad you asked!

If we have 2 remaining maf, then we have 2, 3, or 4 PRs, distributed in a way that will likely break the game. Furthermore, fitz rockets to the top of my townlist (or at least not mafia list) due to seemingly very genuine mistakes in trying to "prove" there's only 1 mafia left. Then we can start hunting for associatives, because we're 1 or 2 mislynches from MyLo depending on night actions.

If we have 1 remaining maf, we can start taking a look at people talking to me about setup spec. Most people assumed 2 mafia IIRC and I'm guessing mafia played along, but it's still something to look into. Then we can remember to ourselves that there's only one partner for Creature, not 2. This changes VCA substantially.

[Mathdino]

Also, if there's 1 PR left, that PR suddenly becomes an innocent child (or at least the sole named townie) the moment they claim. Doctor functions as a bulletproof townie if mod allows self-healing.

[Mathdino]

So operating under the assumption that Creature has literally only 1 partner going forward, I think fitz's analysis holds a lot of weight. Bussing seems much more dangerous and we need to look off the wagon. In particular, Screenplay and Kop (Kop is my addition ofc). sheep was semi-on-the-wagon but stalled for a claim.

And that also dispels the bullshit associations people are making like OH SHIT WHAT IF MATH/MOMO ARE A SCUMBLOC. Which you might see is what prompted me to take this gamble in the first place.

[Kop]

UNVOTE: AnoynmousGhost