Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[Sky_Paladin]

There is also a scenario where there is one scum in Dino/Sheep and one scum in Cy/Red. In this world, it's Dino/Red because Dino handed out locktown on Red iirc pretty early on, and it would be consistent with a scum!Dino IMO to hand out one town lock on a town player (Sheep in this view) and the scum partner (Red). However this is only really meaningful if Dino was then later bussing his town read (whichever one it was) and this has not really eventuated. So I'm discounting that team simply because it seems very unlikely.

If this is actually the case though I can't see any lynch today that would help me see it.

[Sky_Paladin]

@Dino

what lynch today makes you believe Sky!town? Earlier (Blade iirc) commented that a flip on Cy, even with my vote there, looks scummy. Interested by way of going into LYLO with some POE town locks.

To be clear I am not averse to the Cy lynch and I do expect Tora to come in here and announce intent to hammer (or actually hammer) pretty soon, I just want to float some ideas.

[Mathdino]

Otherwise from where I'm sitting I see two blocks: Dino/Sheep obv, and Red/Cy. The only players who don't really fit in blocks are Sky and Momo, so that is a third team that I would have expected to have emerged more credibly than a Sky/Cy team.

If we flip Cy and Cy is green, I'm more likely to want to push for a Sheep lynch than a Red/Momo lynch.
If we flip Sheep and sheep is green, I'm absolutely pushing for a Cy lynch. I'm giving an implicit town clear to Red if Dino is right about Sheep's alignment.
If we flip Momo and Momo is green, it doesn't help me pick between the two other blocks.

I'm not interested in lynching Red at this point because I think I can get significant alignment indications from lynching in one of those other two blocks.

You have a few errors but I get the idea. These are largely fair picks.

The problem is the last thing. Red/hyung believe I'm scum independently of sheep/Tora, and in particular believe I'm scum with Kop/momo (or you/Diamond? I'm not really sure).

I'm pretty fucking sure they're town, and that means if we get this day wrong, LyLo will wreck us.

And I'm also lowkey done with them due to frustration with pants-on-head-tunneling. inb4 hyung is a derpy alt

So you deal with them so we don't insta-lose in LyLo.

Edit: uh gimme a sec

[Mathdino]

Sky I think you're majorly fucking up the pairs to the point where I can't understand your posts.

Can you EBWOP them all?

The pairs are:
Math/Math
Red/hyung
sheep/Tora
Sky/Diamond
Kop/momo
Lal/cy

In descending order of towniness in my opinion.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

cytheflyguy (6) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino, sheepsaysmeep, Mathblade, momo
Mathdino (3) - hyung, RedFlavor, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - DiamondSentinel
DiamondSentinel (1) - cytheflyguy

Not Voting (1) - Kop

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)

[Sky_Paladin]

eg when I look at my relationship chart I see that you-
Locktown Sheep
Locktown Red
Null on Momo
??? on Sky.

Looks like POE you will still want to lynch me even if Cy flips green, and I will probably want to lynch Sheep (because Hyrule slot would then be uninteresting).

cut

Edited for clarity:

Otherwise from where I'm sitting I see two blocks: Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora obv, and Red/Hyung/Cy/Lalendra. The only players who don't really fit in blocks are Sky/Diamond and Momo/Kop, so that is a third team that I would have expected to have emerged more credibly than a Sky/Diamond/Cy/Lalendra team.

If we flip Cy and Cy is green, I'm more likely to want to push for a Sheep lynch than a Red/Hyung OR Momo/Kop lynch.
If we flip Sheep and sheep is green, I'm absolutely pushing for a Cy lynch. I'm giving an implicit town clear to Red-slot if Dino is right about Sheep's alignment.
If we flip Momo and Momo is green, it doesn't help me pick between the two other blocks.

I'm not interested in lynching Red-slot at this point because I think I can get significant alignment indications from lynching in one of those other two blocks.

[Sky_Paladin]

The problem is the last thing. Red/hyung believe I'm scum independently of sheep/Tora, and in particular believe I'm scum with Kop/momo (or you/Diamond? I'm not really sure).

Oh I did miss this.

I feel that is signicant. Thinking.

[Mathdino]

@Dino

what lynch today makes you believe Sky!town? Earlier (Blade iirc) commented that a flip on Cy, even with my vote there, looks scummy. Interested by way of going into LYLO with some POE town locks.

To be clear I am not averse to the Cy lynch and I do expect Tora to come in here and announce intent to hammer (or actually hammer) pretty soon, I just want to float some ideas.

cytheflyguy/Lalendra townflip would make me almost believe Sky!town.

After that, Kop/momo/Sky/Diamond is actually my new top scumteam. Maybe Kop/momo/sheep/Tora.

[Sky_Paladin]

I can abide by that as reasonable teams from your perspective.

If I accept Dino as town and Red as town, and we flip Cy and Cy is green, AND I know my alignment as town, that leaves only Sheep/Tora/Momo/Kop.

Does this team look plausible?

[Sky_Paladin]

Momo votes - joined Cy wagon.
Semi-random vote mid-phase on Red.
Semi-random vote sheep after Sheep self vote.
Put Cy at L-1.

???

[momo]

yeah..I am attempting lurking to see how it affects reads

[Sky_Paladin]

Dino (
Also someone who's doing legit scumhunting, please explain to me the scum motivation of Tora trying to town-clear the guy that his partner is voting for.

For context:
Sheep votes Momo
Tora townclears Momo

hmmmmm

Say his name, and he appears.

[Sky_Paladin]

So the scum motivation would be:
The slots are trying to disassociate from their scum-buddy slot.

Plausible?

[Sky_Paladin]

If we flip Cy and he is green, the only teams I see are Dino/Blade/Tora/Sheep and Tora/Sheep/Momo/Kop. I don't see Dino/Blade/Red/Hyrule as plausible. In this scenario, my preferred lynch is Sheep since they are the common denominator between the two teams, AND the meta analysis I performed earlier suggests they are more in line with their scum behavior than town behavior.

If we flip Sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red
Still don't see Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red as plausible.
Preferred lynch is Kop/Momo.

If we lynch Kop/Momo and they are green
Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora
Cy/Lalendra/Hyrule/Red
Both teams plausible, Sky/Diamond kingmaker but prior flip unhelpful. Probably a bad situation.

So I think our best choices from my view at this stage are the Cy/Lalendra flip, and possibly Sheep instead, by way of giving Sky/Diamond the same town read view on Red's slot as Dino.

Would be interested in Diamond/Dino/Blade thoughts on preferred lynches, as well as Cy/Lalendra, Hyrule/Red.

Please tell me your preferred lynch in LYLO presuming your current preferred lynch (Cy) flips green, or any other scenario that you think is interesting.

[momo]

My current scum reads are

cy/lalendra ; sheep/tora

however...I do think lynching myself and kop and us flipping green could give a lot of info to town so...y'all decide

[Sky_Paladin]

cy/lalendra ; sheep/tora

That is interesting. Could you please clarify more about these reads?

Are there any players you are townreading? Who would you like to keep with you to LYLO?

[Sky_Paladin]

If we flip Sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red
Still don't see Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red as plausible.
Preferred lynch is Kop/Momo.

This is wrong - I forgot that Cy/Lalendra/Red/Hyrule exist in this scenario, so I would not arbitrarily lynch Momo.

If we lynch sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Cy/Lalendra - highly unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Cy/Lalendra - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red - possible

Common denominators in teams: Kop/Momo (covers Hyrule/Red and DinoBlade, lose if scum team is Dino/Cy. Could live in that world tbh)

If we lynch Cy and they are green
Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora - plausible.
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - highly unlikely
Sheep/Tora/Kop/Momo - plausible
Sheep/Tora/Hyrule/Red - unlikely

Common denominators in teams: Sheep/Tora (covers Dino/Blade and Sheep/Tora/Kop/Momo, lose if scum team is Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo or Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red).

I am probably committing to a lynch of Sheep if we flip Cy and he is green.

[DiamondSentinel]

I'm committing to a sheep lynch anyways.

[Sky_Paladin]

I did it again lol. I think this is my internal comf bias that Sheep is scum.

If we lynch sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Cy/Lalendra - highly unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Cy/Lalendra - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red - possible
Cy/Lalendra/Red/Hyrule - possible

Common denominators: Cy/Lalendra and Kop/Momo. Common denominator is Red BUT Dino will not vote and if Sheep is green, Red is probably green as well because Dino's TR therefore on point.
So my preferred lynch is probably Cy/Lalendra in LYLO.

If we lynch Cy and they are green
Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora - plausible.
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - highly unlikely
Sheep/Tora/Kop/Momo - plausible
Sheep/Tora/Hyrule/Red - unlikely
Hyrule/Red/Kop/Momo - unlikely

Common denominator is still Sheep.

I'm probably satisfied with a lynch of Cy this phase since it advances my situation to apparently winnable in LYLO from my view.

cut

Could you at least consider the possibility that you/we are wrong and evaluate what happens next if you got your way?

[DiamondSentinel]

I've considered it greatly. If sheep is town, then that means that, likely, Math is town. About a 60/40 there.

Kop/Momo has about a 75/25 chance of being scum.

Red/Hyrule is about a 50/50. Their general posting is town-like, but it seems like just the right amount of distancing that they could be scum.

Cy/Lalendra sits about 60/40 in favor of scum. Regardless of their alignment, sheep's cases shall be given no salt whatsoever, and their readlists to be ignored. They only sit at 60/40 because that means that Dino was right about sheep being town, which leads credence to their reads in general.

[Mathdino]

Okay using shorthand.
Math/Math = Math
sheep/Tora = sheep (cuz let's be honest Tora's gone)
Red/hyung = Red
Sky/Diamond = Blue (avatar)
cy/Lalendra = Lacy
Kop = momo = Mop

Literally going through every pairing:
sheep/Red: Bad. Red threw away the opportunity for his partner to roll.
sheep/Blue: Really weird but I guess possible if all partners were smart enough to bus.
sheep/Lacy: Probably impossible.
sheep/Mop: Possible only if sheep going after Mop's "scumslip" was a calculated bus. sheep was pretty deadset on that. Tora on the other hand was not.
Red/Blue: Possible, are basically the historically anti-Math/anti-sheep teams.
Red/Lacy: Requires Red bussing and then being like "NEVER MIND". Not unlikely.
Red/Mop: No associations. Possible.
Blue/Lacy: My scumteam of choice. Still not hammering.
Blue/Mop: Consistent with PT fuckups. Likely.
Lacy/Mop: 2nd scumteam of choice. Requires momo calculated bus.

Assuming we lynch Lacy:
sheep/Red: Highly unlikely.
sheep/Blue: Worst case scenario for me. Unlikely by reads.
sheep/Mop: No change from D1. Weird that Mop didn't hammer Lacy.
Red/Blue: The anti-me/sheep set. No comment.
Red/Mop: The lurkers. Possible.
Blue/Mop: Blue setting up non-Mop lynch tomorrow. Likely.

Literally haven't read Sky's analysis so doing that now.

[DiamondSentinel]

...

Math, are you even reading?

1. No PT fuckups.
2. "setting up non-Mop lynch tomorrow" Mop is literally my most likely lynch if sheep is scum.

[Mathdino]

Dino (
Also someone who's doing legit scumhunting, please explain to me the scum motivation of Tora trying to town-clear the guy that his partner is voting for.

For context:
Sheep votes Momo
Tora townclears Momo

hmmmmm

Say his name, and he appears.

No scum motivation if sheep/Mop aren't the pair.

SHITTONS of scum motivation if the 4 of them are together.

Thanks for the extra evidence of Tora-town unless Kop/momo is scum.

Edit: What? I literally just said I haven't read your team's analysis yet. I'm trying not to be biased or drown in the notation.

[Mathdino]

I can abide by that as reasonable teams from your perspective.

If I accept Dino as town and Red as town, and we flip Cy and Cy is green, AND I know my alignment as town, that leaves only Sheep/Tora/Momo/Kop.

Does this team look plausible?

Yeah, it does.

[Mathdino]

Okay so if Math/Blue are all town, then our agreed scumteam is clearly sheep/Mop.

The problem is I don't trust you guys and thus have Blue/Mop in my list.

And you don't trust me so you have sheep/Math in your list.

I would argue that Red/Mop is actually possible and thus you should agree to lynch Mop. But I guess it depends on how overwhelming your sheep/Math scumread is.

FURTHERMORE, we're absolutely utterly fucked if Red doesn't budge from their "scumslip"/punking-based scumread of me because that negates our ability to get a majority.

So I still need someone to deal with that.