2017 NFL Football

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1143 (isolation #0) » Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:07 pm

The last score in Oakland-Miami voided my $2 to pay $150 parlay where I had OAK -3 to finish it.

That was annoying

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1557 (isolation #1) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:04 pm

Like my SB bets value for the most part from around the end of week 10:

NO at 12:1
JAX at 11:1
LAR at 9:1

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1571 (isolation #2) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:08 am

Probably Vikings/Rams v Pats

AFC is just hard to call... its basically just "Anyone but Bills/Titans can win if they get hot". All of the AFC has looked very bad in some games and very good in some games. Just with the Jags if Bortles plays like early December Bortles, they could be super bowl bound. If he plays like classic Bortles, they might lose to the Bills.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1653 (isolation #3) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:27 pm

That Kelce concussion costs me... had him o5.5 receptions and o71.5 yards for a decent amount. Ends with 4 for 66. Hope he is better, but really frustrating from a bet standpoint.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1664 (isolation #4) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:40 pm

No doubt TD. I think the argument is will that play be the most important play of the game or will Kelce getting concussed being it.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1705 (isolation #5) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:52 pm

In post 1701, BROseidon wrote:Also praise be the Bortortles

His stat line was amazing. Jaguars now 9-0 this season when Bortles doesn't throw a pick. Jaguars +3.5 at +150 is interesting.

Also its January 7th and a Jacksonville v Tennessee AFC Championship can still happen. Imagine telling that to someone last February.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1708 (isolation #6) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:15 pm

snap decision picks:

PHI +3
NE -13
JAX +7.5
MIN -4

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1733 (isolation #7) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:55 am

Still more than enough time for Jaguars to choke it away. Its why I picked up a JAX/PIT HT/FT bet before the game started.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1736 (isolation #8) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:28 am

In post 1708, LlamaFluff wrote:snap decision picks:

PHI +3
NE -13
JAX +7.5
MIN -4

3/3 so far (even though since lines shifted I bet NO +5.5)

Now Bortles is 10-0 when no interceptions thrown too I think.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1738 (isolation #9) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:50 am

Sounds right, TENvNE was -13 to -14.5 all week... I would guess it settles around -10.5 to -12.5 with JAX. I will probably take NE and the points if its below -11 because I just don't trust that JAX can shut down Gronk and RB pass game.

LlamaFluff · Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:03 pm

I want JAX v NO because I have both of them at about 11:1 to win the super bowl on futures. My pick is and has been NE v MIN.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1748 (isolation #11) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:09 pm

It would basically be can NE beat two top few defenses with average offenses in a row, if that is who they get.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1753 (isolation #12) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:57 pm

I'm just happy my bets clean up. Had big ones for NO +5.5 and Brees -0.5 > Keenum fantasy scoring.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1754 (isolation #13) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:03 pm

FWIW NE opens -8.5 against JAX

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1758 (isolation #14) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:16 pm

In post 1756, Nero Cain wrote:eat that, Llama!

And I cover $210 pays $200 profit NO +5.5

Perfect.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1770 (isolation #15) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:27 pm

I like MIN -2.5 and u38.5, but NEvJAX is interesting. I think its very close or NE just wins in an absolute blowout. May just hedge bets and do JAX outright and NE -13.5 because I think that should hit about half the time.

I'm just glad I got my NO bet right in a completely wrong scenario. I was assuming MIN up by about 10 late, Brees just drives for a 2 minute drill TD to cover the spread. Not MIN wins on a miracle play.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1809 (isolation #16) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:47 pm

wow... Brady "injury" has swung lines by 2 to 2.5 and even got the game pulled for smaller places.