Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[Sky_Paladin]

Diamond, do me a solid and please treat Dino like he is a smart person capable of rationale thinking, even when he is disagreeing with you/me.

Or better yet, try to sit in his shoes for a second and imagine what Dino's 'view' is like. He spent a good chunk of the game thinking that Cy is scum because we didn't hammer earlier, and we're in that exact same position now. The fact that every post isn't LOOK DIAMOND STILL HASN'T HAMMERED OBVSCUM!!!1111! counts well for him as a relaxed, town-motivated problem solver at this point. So let's treat him as one.

cut

I don't know how to deal with Hyrule at this point except to ask the mod to prod them until they replace out.

Which is a credible option given how little content they have.

[Mathdino]

Be on in 5 hours then and we can request another prod. I'll probably be there.

Request prod on Kop

[Mathdino]

Diamond, do me a solid and please treat Dino like he is a smart person capable of rationale thinking, even when he is disagreeing with you/me.

Btw this is very good advice for getting me to townread you guys when you're scum, so I support this!

[Lalendra]

...

Math, are you even reading?

1. No PT fuckups.
2. "setting up non-Mop lynch tomorrow" Mop is literally my most likely lynch if sheep is scum.

Well, this reads as a definite townslip to me. Diamond forgot that if we lynch scum D1 then there is no inch tomorrow, the game is over.

[Mathdino]

That one's not a townslip. That's just forgetting about the setup. Also I think Diamond meant "if sheep is town".

[DiamondSentinel]

EBWOP: Mop is my most likely lynch if sheep isn't scum.

[RedFlavor]

Id be okay with lynching math or mop/sheep (Im not sure about latter but im leaning on sheep scum)

[Sky_Paladin]

@Diamond
If the lynch on Cy goes through, won't have alignment information on Sheep. Presuming Cy flips green, where do you lynch?

I understand you want a sheep lynch this phase but I don't see any strategy for trying to actually make that happen. So I am interested in scenario's that are more likely to happen.

[Mathdino]

Id be okay with lynching math or mop/sheep (Im not sure about latter but im leaning on sheep scum)

restate your case on me

[Sky_Paladin]

@Mod

inactivity -
Kop has received two prods so far and is already over the 72 hour limit.
Request replacement for Kop.
Toranaga is in the 2-3 day category.
Request prod on Tora.
Hyung is 2 hours short of the 2-3 day category.
Request prod on Hyung.

[MathBlade]

I've considered it greatly. If sheep is town, then that means that, likely, Math is town. About a 60/40 there.

Kop/Momo has about a 75/25 chance of being scum.

Red/Hyrule is about a 50/50. Their general posting is town-like, but it seems like just the right amount of distancing that they could be scum.

Cy/Lalendra sits about 60/40 in favor of scum. Regardless of their alignment, sheep's cases shall be given no salt whatsoever, and their readlists to be ignored. They only sit at 60/40 because that means that Dino was right about sheep being town, which leads credence to their reads in general.

So ...Then if you’re at 60/40 and your partner is convinced Cy is scum (as evidenced by their vote) why do you not vote with them?

[Mathdino]

inb4

LOOK DIAMOND STILL HASN'T HAMMERED OBVSCUM!!!1111!

[hyung]

I still think the fact that everyone but me and Red is absolutely willing to lynch cy should already be a key indicator he's town, but given how Dino has people wrapped around his finger I can't really do much except keep saying it

Dino and Sky seem to keep talking about what to do "if cy flips town". Which should also be a clear giveaway that there are at least two pairs who know there'll be a day 2 with lynching cy

It's so easy for Mafia to justify their mislynch choices as a way for town to get more information. Whoever on that wagon is actually town should be continuing to look for an actual Mafia lynch

I'm on my phone right now so can't say much more. But honestly I'm only even saying this much because I think the fact this is a mislynch wagon should be glaringly obvious

and I'm disappointed that people like Dino can just get away with calling me crazy/drunk/an idiot when I scumread him, while setting things up for his pair to survive day 2.

[hyung]

I can't commit as much time here consistently each day as everyone else can, so I get why people might not be listening to me. But it's really frustrating to see Dino my scumread devaluing my opinion on character-based grounds, and see people being okay with that and ignoring all the tells

Lastly I can see how Dino's post could be interpreted other than a scumslip. But more likely than not, it was a scumslip - I don't think Dino expected pressure like that when I came in, and slipped up while trying to regain control of the situation

[hyung]

...

Math, are you even reading?

1. No PT fuckups.
2. "setting up non-Mop lynch tomorrow" Mop is literally my most likely lynch if sheep is scum.

Well, this reads as a definite townslip to me. Diamond forgot that if we lynch scum D1 then there is no inch tomorrow, the game is over.

Normally I'd say this is shallow too and can be easily faked, but I haven't gotten a good read on Diamond's play style and how easily he could fake that. Plus this feels a bit more natural than the other kinds of tests or slips in this thread before

Diamond is paired with Sky if I remember correctly, but I'm not sure how I feel about the pairing as a whole. Right now I'm very very lightly town reading Diamond by default due to this and slightly scum reading Sky... which is? A big question mark to me

But anyway this is irrelevant since I'm still confident a Dino lynch ends the game so *shrug*

[Mathdino]

Lastly I can see how Dino's post could be interpreted other than a scumslip. But more likely than not, it was a scumslip - I don't think Dino expected pressure like that when I came in, and slipped up while trying to regain control of the situation

What experience do you have with scumslips?

Cuz I can give you maybe a dozen examples of how and why they don't happen except in very specific circumstances.

THAT's the problem I have with you. You come in here talking about how you don't understand the setup and this is your first game onsite, fine.

But then you don't read the game and base the entirety of your reads on me saying a thing. And apparently now you're basing it off of people lining up lynches, which is a thing EVERYONE does.

And the thing is, we (or at least I) have seen so many players like you lose it for town because you base your whole game around one thing and then don't know how to reevaluate. Or you blame it on everyone else.

Point is, stop acting like you're hot shit and can step into the game for one page and figure everything out. Every interaction and everything I do is just more confbias for you. This isn't a game of winning the debate, this is a game of actually figuring shit out.

Edit: Dude. Diamond literally invalidated that due to a typo like a few posts after.
Conclusion:

YOU'RE NOT FUCKING PAYING ATTENTION.

I literally don't think I've ever seen a player like you win games by doing this shit.

[Mathdino]

It's so easy for Mafia to justify their mislynch choices as a way for town to get more information. Whoever on that wagon is actually town should be continuing to look for an actual Mafia lynch

The fuck?

Did you miss all the conversations where we decided cy IS scum??? wait don't answer that

Hilariously, I'm guessing if you read this whole game, you'd see some kind of "scumslip" from everyone. Lalendra in particular tbh.

He's on the brink so now we're discussing before he dies what's gonna happen after.

BECAUSE MAYBE
JUST MAYBE
YOU DON'T ASSUME THE GAME WILL END AFTER YOU LYNCH YOUR SCUMREAD

Do you at all understand how it's smarter to act as if there'll still be scum out there?

[Sky_Paladin]

But it's really frustrating to see Dino my scumread devaluing my opinion on character-based grounds, and see people being okay with that and ignoring all the tells

So far all I've really seen from you is a vote on Dino based around a scumslip. After 30 pages of arguing with Dino I have him as town. So I really need to see something a bit more special than that to re-address that slip. That one thing isn't really enough to say 'all the tells', if you have some more, please feel free to share with the class.

I don't know Cy's alignment but I am incredibly suspicious of the way your slot and his slot vote/interact. So I would say there's a better than even chance that if flips red.

If I'm wrong, though? Well, the main reason I voted Cy to begin with was because a big source of the push against Diamond/myself was that we didn't hammer Cy when we had the chance. So I voted there to try and prove that we were willing to compromise/adjust the situation. In all honestly, I expected that we were going to be lynched before anything else happened. But then, something interesting happened. The Cy-wagon reformed, and then a Dino wagon emerged! How strange.

So you're right, when I voted Cy, I didn't vote him because I thought he was scum, I voted him for the strategic reason of

not me over me

. I know I'm town, and I don't know Cy's alignment, even if at the time I thought he was

probably

town.

From there the situation de-escalated somewhat (even though that's L-1) however this deadlock is interesting because it didn't appear when Sky/Diamond where at L-1, but it's appeared twice now on the Cy slot. So I think that bears reflecting on - it's unlikely that all the scum are on this wagon already, because there's likely to have been a hammer (part of the reason Dino/Blade believe in the Sky/Diamond/Cy/Lalendra team).

At this point in the game, I'm expecting Cy to flip red along with Lalendra, RedFlavor and Hyung. I don't believe there'll be a day 2, but if there is, all the players know where my slot is likely to vote (Sheep) in LYLO. I've made that clear because that impacts what scum have to do this phase to get through the game - if Sheep is red, then letting my slot through to LYLO is a danger.

If you believe otherwise I'd love to hear all about it.

[Mathdino]

Honestly I always believe there'll be a D2. I commonly make an ass out of myself in twilight by making reads as if the guy I just lynched will flip town.

I'm so incredibly pessimistic with this setup given that we're apparently now lynching non-arbitrarily that I kinda just expect to lose. #nihilism #cestlavie

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: Honestly I always believe that D1 lynches are gonna be on town.
Because this setup's mechanics are obviously not applicable to other games

[Sky_Paladin]

Cheer up. It's always darkest right before dawn #celestia

[Mathdino]

Thoughts on me catching hyung in a notpayingattentionslip?

The victimization is also fucking hilarious given that this entire fiasco started with me trying to prove he was town.

[Sky_Paladin]

Welllllll I think you are good at manufacturing 'gotcha' scenarios for whatever alignment you want - as soon as you get the result you need, you stop fishing unless something actually jumps into the boat. That is a bit too confirmation biasy for my liking.

I don't find it funny. I do find it odd that Hyung has more to say than either Cy or Lalendra given that Hyung isn't the one with votes.

[Mathdino]

It's what's worked for me in the past. I get flak about it until it wins games. Honestly I've only ever created one type of 'gotcha' scenario for scum (to my knowledge; if Mop is scum that makes two). I haven't played that card here yet. Outside of that I don't think I've ever caught a scumslip. Been wrong about a few in the past and then just stopped using them.

Townslips are MUCH more my thing. I don't think I've ever been wrong about a townslip. I don't use them on clearly experienced players though because good scum can fake them. But yeah, I've got a whole bag of tricks for them tbh.

When you say it's too confbiasy, are you questioning my alignment or my playstyle?

I would argue that sheep/Tora SOFTtownslipped. Forgetting the setup is a towntell more often than not.

But Red/hyung definitely HARDtownslipped. They now beat sheep/Tora in my reads list.

It's less about the result I need and more about the one I want? My best plays are forcing my biggest scumreads to townslip. They usually hate me until they realise what I'm doing.

[Toranaga]

Id be okay with lynching math or mop/sheep (Im not sure about latter but im leaning on sheep scum)

this is scum fwiw