Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[Toranaga]

it's cy;lalendra with redflavor;hyung

redflavor just made it painfully obvious

[Kop]

is it hammer time?

[DiamondSentinel]

@Diamond
If the lynch on Cy goes through, won't have alignment information on Sheep. Presuming Cy flips green, where do you lynch?

I understand you want a sheep lynch this phase but I don't see any strategy for trying to actually make that happen. So I am interested in scenario's that are more likely to happen.

Cy flips green?

I look at sheep being about 80/20 scum. Math 65-70/30-35 scum. Red still about 60/40 town. Kop at about 55/45 town. Cy being town puts sheep/Math as the most likely scumteam given this constant push.

I've considered it greatly. If sheep is town, then that means that, likely, Math is town. About a 60/40 there.

Kop/Momo has about a 75/25 chance of being scum.

Red/Hyrule is about a 50/50. Their general posting is town-like, but it seems like just the right amount of distancing that they could be scum.

Cy/Lalendra sits about 60/40 in favor of scum. Regardless of their alignment, sheep's cases shall be given no salt whatsoever, and their readlists to be ignored. They only sit at 60/40 because that means that Dino was right about sheep being town, which leads credence to their reads in general.

So ...Then if you’re at 60/40 and your partner is convinced Cy is scum (as evidenced by their vote) why do you not vote with them?

Kiddo. Actually read. There's the assumption "if and only if sheep flips green, then Cy sits at 60/40 scum".

In other news, Math!scum is shooting up massively because MathBlade flat out not reading is a major scumtell.

[DiamondSentinel]

is it hammer time?

You hammer this, and if they flip green, I will 100% powerlynch you tomorrow, reads be damned.

[sheepsaysmeep]

holy shit?
why thread explosion

[DiamondSentinel]

Because unlike you, some people actually have things to say, and expect answers.

[Mathdino]

is it hammer time?

You hammer this, and if they flip green, I will 100% powerlynch you tomorrow, reads be damned.

You're doing amazing at keeping this guy alive tbh.

Are we legit just waiting on Mathblade?

[Sky_Paladin]

The last vote count looked like this -

cytheflyguy (6) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino, sheepsaysmeep, Mathblade, momo
Mathdino (3) - hyung, RedFlavor, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - DiamondSentinel
DiamondSentinel (1) - cytheflyguy

Not Voting (1) - Kop

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

With around 10 RL days left on the clock. So that is plenty of time for Cy/Lalendra to convince us why we should vote for somebody else if they wanted to.

Diamond, calling people bad won't convince them to shift their votes. We spent the first part of the game trying to get through the dino wall and it didn't work so why would it work now.

Like I'm not against a sheep lynch but look at the votes. Cy hasn't even voted to defend themselves, and the natural push for Sheep over Cy hasn't come up given your vote is already there.

It looks a lot like Cy/Lalendra have just checked out of the game.

[Mathdino]

Waiting to see if cy gets lynched is like waiting to see if Ross and Rachel get together

[Lalendra]

The last vote count looked like this -

cytheflyguy (6) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino, sheepsaysmeep, Mathblade, momo
Mathdino (3) - hyung, RedFlavor, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - DiamondSentinel
DiamondSentinel (1) - cytheflyguy

Not Voting (1) - Kop

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

With around 10 RL days left on the clock. So that is plenty of time for Cy/Lalendra to convince us why we should vote for somebody else if they wanted to.

Diamond, calling people bad won't convince them to shift their votes. We spent the first part of the game trying to get through the dino wall and it didn't work so why would it work now.

Like I'm not against a sheep lynch but look at the votes. Cy hasn't even voted to defend themselves, and the natural push for Sheep over Cy hasn't come up given your vote is already there.

It looks a lot like Cy/Lalendra have just checked out of the game.

I have posted quite a bit in my own defense, and tried to do some scumhunting as well. I am happy to answer any outstanding questions or provide information, but as I recall no one has asked me anything.

[Sky_Paladin]

This is not the first time Cy/Lalendra have been within hammer range and they just afk'd it out. The only reason they didn't die then was because you and I stuck our neck out pushing for Dino, because we couldn't get sheep, and became the target ourselves.

However instead of just laying down to die and afk out, we showed signs of life/defended our votes hard/assessed reads etc etc, basically, all things town players do when they have votes on them that they know to be wrong and that some of those votes are scum.

Cy/Lalendra has all the hallmarks of scum just silently waiting for a new wagon to suddenly appear that will save them.

cut

I have posted quite a bit in my own defense, and tried to do some scumhunting as well. I am happy to answer any outstanding questions or provide information, but as I recall no one has asked me anything.

I don't remember you posting anything?

[MathBlade]

@Diamond
If the lynch on Cy goes through, won't have alignment information on Sheep. Presuming Cy flips green, where do you lynch?

I understand you want a sheep lynch this phase but I don't see any strategy for trying to actually make that happen. So I am interested in scenario's that are more likely to happen.

Cy flips green?

I look at sheep being about 80/20 scum. Math 65-70/30-35 scum. Red still about 60/40 town. Kop at about 55/45 town. Cy being town puts sheep/Math as the most likely scumteam given this constant push.

I've considered it greatly. If sheep is town, then that means that, likely, Math is town. About a 60/40 there.

Kop/Momo has about a 75/25 chance of being scum.

Red/Hyrule is about a 50/50. Their general posting is town-like, but it seems like just the right amount of distancing that they could be scum.

Cy/Lalendra sits about 60/40 in favor of scum. Regardless of their alignment, sheep's cases shall be given no salt whatsoever, and their readlists to be ignored. They only sit at 60/40 because that means that Dino was right about sheep being town, which leads credence to their reads in general.

So ...Then if you’re at 60/40 and your partner is convinced Cy is scum (as evidenced by their vote) why do you not vote with them?

Kiddo. Actually read. There's the assumption "if and only if sheep flips green, then Cy sits at 60/40 scum".

In other news, Math!scum is shooting up massively because MathBlade flat out not reading is a major scumtell.

In other news learn grammar.

If you say a statement the it applies to that sentence/paragraph.

For example

If it rains on Sunday then the ground will be wet.

There is a 100% chance the sun exists.

The sun existing is not predicated on it raining on Sunday.

Organize your posts better or something.

Oh and hammer cy.

[MathBlade]

is it hammer time?

You hammer this, and if they flip green, I will 100% powerlynch you tomorrow, reads be damned.

You're doing amazing at keeping this guy alive tbh.

Are we legit just waiting on Mathblade?

I am on the cy wagon. Why would we be waiting on me? Seems cy needs rope and no one is hammering.

[Mathdino]

We have a political problem going on. Have you been reading?

I haven't seen any comment from you since before I gave sheep, Tora, and Red that questionnaire a while back.

[Lalendra]

This is not the first time Cy/Lalendra have been within hammer range and they just afk'd it out. The only reason they didn't die then was because you and I stuck our neck out pushing for Dino, because we couldn't get sheep, and became the target ourselves.

However instead of just laying down to die and afk out, we showed signs of life/defended our votes hard/assessed reads etc etc, basically, all things town players do when they have votes on them that they know to be wrong and that some of those votes are scum.

Cy/Lalendra has all the hallmarks of scum just silently waiting for a new wagon to suddenly appear that will save them.

cut

I have posted quite a bit in my own defense, and tried to do some scumhunting as well. I am happy to answer any outstanding questions or provide information, but as I recall no one has asked me anything.

I don't remember you posting anything?

Hey dude if 6 other players are willing to random lynch based on a dice roll, I'd go for that. But they're not, and coming up with a lynch that's random TO ME is the Poor Man's Version. I can just hope that they're not in some way unduly influenced by scum.

The fact that no one else seems to be wanting to join the awesome/arbitrary wagon on your team if anything indicates to me that it's probably actually on scum. If someone from literally every team had hopped on by now, I'd start to get suspicious because I'd start to think that the lynch was in fact not random and was supported by scum.

That tell is of course null now that I've actually said it, so everyone jumping on after this post wouldn't actually change my mind at all.

Okay, point taken about the quasi-random sheep vote.
I think, however, that the reason the wagon isn't building is more due to the fact that there haven't really been any concrete reasons laid out, and/or the fact that others are not on board with the random lynch option, as you said. I don't have a problem with sheeping a townread, I do it frequently; I just don't have anyone yet in this game that I feel comfortable enough sheeping, so I am trying to form my own reads.

Oh yeah and I coded the setup.
Modeled as 6 players, 2 random mafia, and 2 random lynches. Town wins if one lynch is on mafia. Loops 1000 times. The winrate hovers around 600.

I can do the same thing for the hypothetical narrative in which we randomly select someone as a townie to roll 2 lynches on anyone other than them, but I think you guys get the point by now.
The theoretical winrate in that scenario would be 70%, assuming we select a townie.

Not going to lie, whether you're town or scum, your math and coding skills are intimidating. Like I really hope you're town because I would not want to deal with you as scum, and maybe that's part of what makes me so leery.

Out of curiosity though, why do you SR me at the moment? Is it just because I argued against the diceroll plan? Because iirc there were others who did that as well who you are not currently scumreading, and kop/bigfinn did NOT do that and you ARE scumreading them. I have come around to the idea that you are town but I'm struggling to figure out where your reads are coming from (despite the fact that I know you don't think they're especially important...or maybe because of that?)

@Everyone:

You know the post by post tl;dr I did of the longer posts in the game?

I want everyone to post a tl;dr of their lover PTs with every single post included. Even if your lover already did.

Llama: here's your thread
Me: Hey i haven't played this setup before so if you know what to do I'm all ears
Llama: This thread is closed

Honestly I've kind of given up, if I'm going to get lynched D1 because of arbitrary random voting and math, then what's the point in defending? Nothing I say matters if we're just playing the lottery.

Lalendra just giving up does concern me.

I get grumpy when I feel like what I say doesn't matter. I am happy to engage if anyone has any questions or anything, there's just no defense for "please don't arbitrarily lynch me", since there's no logic behind it to argue against. I can say "don't lynch me, I'm town," but that's NAI as it's what anyone would say in this situation, so.

K so you're one of those players. Damn.

Well, we honestly probably just caught scum early with cy/Lalendra, because the fact that the lynch hasn't been pushed through already is insanely suspicious.

I'm not going to pretend to understand your math fully, but if there are 4 people on the wagon, how do i know that all four of you aren't scum, and the ones not jumping on the wagon aren't town? You could be scum taking a power town approach and espousing the random approach to look neutral. That would make sheep your scum buddy and makes it make sense that you are passively throwing shade at anyone not voting us and low key pressuring people to sheep your vote for town cred. Honestly that all makes so much sense that i would feel like i had the whole game figured out if it wasn't for how much i still don't like momo's slip or his response to it.

Wolf is another word for scum.
But I suspect you were coached to ask.

The four of you may talk prior to the beginning of Day 1 at .

Unless I'm wrong, scum don't have day chat, so how could I have been coached?

This might've created the impression that I was strongly townreading sheep when it was more of a townlean on sheep informed by my townread of Tora.

You called sheeping sheep "joining the locktown wagon" previously, and now you're saying it's just a townlean?

Also I have posted regarding the RL responsibilities which have kept me from being as active as I would otherwise like to be, and I don't believe that I've gotten answers to some of the questions that I have posed to Dino and others, so I'm not sure why I'm suddenly being accused of not defending or lurking.

[Mathdino]

Honestly the self ISO is just reminding me of all the reasons I'm scumreading you.

You're still not scumhunting.

[Lalendra]

Okay, explain to me what you think I should be doing differently, because it sounds like you're saying I'm not scumhunting largely because you happen to be one of the pairs I'm scumreading.

[Mathdino]

511 is like you're talking yourself into paranoia and suspecting us. It barely reads like an actual scumread, it's just "Well, a lot of people are voting me, how do I know they're not scum? It would make sense if they were!"

I'm not gonna give you a road map on what to do. But it obviously doesn't help me if I'm looking for guidance from you if/after you flip town and we need a 2nd lynch. This lack of willingness to work together is part of why I'm at this point locked in on lynching you.

Idk how much you've been following the game, but like, idk, do what Sky did when he was run up if you really wanna contribute.

[Lalendra]

I think that if cy and I don't survive D1, you need to take a long, hard look at your sheep/tora townread, because I am really not feeling the warm fuzzies there that you are, and if you're town, I think you are sorely mistaken on that pair. I really am not seeing the scumminess that everyone is reading into Red's pair, so I wouldn't advocate going after them, sheep would still be my first choice.

[Mathdino]

Okay, so from your perspective, and assuming I'm town, who the hell are sheep/Tora buddies with?

[Sky_Paladin]

@Lalendra

Your last 'scumhunting' post you have in that wall is when the vote tally looked like this -

DiamondSentinel (4) - sheepsaysmeep, cytheflyguy, Mathblade, RedFlavor
cytheflyguy (3) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino
sheepsaysmeep (2) - DiamondSentinel, momo
momo (1) - Lalendra

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

Right now, the tally looks like this

cytheflyguy (6) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino, sheepsaysmeep, Mathblade, momo
Mathdino (3) - hyung, RedFlavor, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - DiamondSentinel
DiamondSentinel (1) - cytheflyguy

Not Voting (1) - Kop

Your stated reason for getting on the Mathdino wagon was because of a scumslip that Hyung brought up.

So when I say "I don't remember you posting anything?" it's because I don't remember you bringing anything new to the table.

[Mathdino]

sheep/Blue team doesn't make sense btw because that team could pretty easily get on my/Red's good side and speedlynch either Mop or Math.

sheep/Red doesn't make sense because Red repeatedly threw away the opportunity to kingmake sheep.

You see where I'm going with this Lalendra?

[Sky_Paladin]

sheep/Blue team doesn't make sense btw because that team could pretty easily get on my/Red's good side and speedlynch either Mop or Math.

Could you please comment further on this?

[MathBlade]

We have a political problem going on. Have you been reading?

I haven't seen any comment from you since before I gave sheep, Tora, and Red that questionnaire a while back.

I have been.

Some point incorrectly scumread you.

And there are talks of “slips” which if you replace two letters in that word you get what I give about “slips”

People read they have opinions. However all of that is a whole lot of unnecessary words.

Either the people should vote cytheflyguy or give reasons to why cytheflyguy is town.

[MathBlade]

We have a political problem going on. Have you been reading?

I haven't seen any comment from you since before I gave sheep, Tora, and Red that questionnaire a while back.

I have been.

Some point incorrectly scumread you.

And there are talks of “slips” which if you replace two letters in that word you get what I don’t give about “slips”

People read they have opinions. However all of that is a whole lot of unnecessary words.

Either the people should vote cytheflyguy or give reasons to why cytheflyguy is town.

Ebeop fuck phones