Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Beefster]

VOTE: HeWhoSwims
because reasons.

[Beefster]

Hey everyone, glad to be here. I'm a returning player that's been away for nearly 5 years so I'm a bit rusty on the meta. That said, VOTE: ErrantParabola?

I was away for 6, soo... I'm not sure the meta is really all that different.

[Beefster]

Vote Count 1.0

ErrantParabola

(2): PenguinPower, Flubbernugget

Not Voting

(11): Moneybags, Maxous, ErrantParabola, Bellaphant, Thor665, CultOfAthena, HeWhoSwims, Klick, Beefster, mozamis, texcat

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-01-24 20:00:56)

barely readable, any chance of changing the font,mod?

I second this motion. Cyan is crazy hard to read against gray/white.

[Beefster]

VOTE: thor

Something smells fishy about this interaction and I don't think it's PenguinPower.

[Beefster]

I've never liked it when a player goes after another for a non-game related reason. I'm not entirely sure if it's a scum tell or not, but it's page 2, so I don't really care.

[Beefster]

I've never liked it when a player goes after another for a non-game related reason. I'm not entirely sure if it's a scum tell or not, but it's page 2, so I don't really care.

What about my reasoning isn't game related exactly?
It's timing and activity and behavior - that's all game related last I checked.

You're case is built around Penguin's status as a queue moderator. I don't think that's very sportsmanlike and reeks of typical garbage reasons used by scum.

[Beefster]

VOTE: maxous

Town leans pls

This looks a bit opportunistic to me.

[Beefster]

moz, penguin, thor town. P.O.E ahoy!

thor looks town. whether he is right or wrong about penguin, he is game solving.

Meh, it's too early to tell. This is how Thor plays either alignment.

well, sounds like you know his meta and i dont. still, it's ballsy for scum and this early in the game, i'm inclined to say more likely to be town than scum.

Hi everyone, let's make it a good game and good luck!

VOTE: Thor665

this is my least favourite post. bit self conscious?
VOTE: hewhoswims

These posts look like newbscum, but mozamis is obviously no newb.

I'll have to think more about this.

[Beefster]

uhh real mountain out of a molehill here guys.

I agree with this sentiment.

[Beefster]

I guess I lean scum on Flubber and Thor.

I lean town on Maxous and Penguin.

I'm null on everyone else. For now. It's too early to tell much.

[Beefster]

These posts look like newbscum, but mozamis is obviously no newb.

I'll have to think more about this.

I could see how you would see scum there, but what's newb about those posts?

It almost seems too obvious to be an actual scumtell because it bears resemblance to the kind of opening post I'd see from newbscum. I'm not really sure how to make sense of it. I'm probably reading into it too much and it might just be playstyle.

[Beefster]

Bella votes are pro town atm

Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber

Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.

[Beefster]

Bella votes are pro town atm

Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber

Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.

So, calling a scum read from one post is always an easy case to fake.

Would you like to elaborate on how it's manipulative? Because there's nothing in that post that says there's consequences for disagreeing with me, and I'm certainly not buddying anyone with it

You can call it fake if you want, but it's not based on one post. I suspected you before that.

It's manipulative in the sense that it paints a specific lynch as the right thing to do. Only slightly though.

[Beefster]

You're case is built around Penguin's status as a queue moderator. I don't think that's very sportsmanlike and reeks of typical garbage reasons used by scum.

My case has literally nothing to do with his status as queue moderator.
His defense has everything to do with it.
So how is my case built around it exactly?

Turns out I misread. You're absolutely right.

That changes a lot, actually. It basically flips my reads on Thor and PP.

This Flubber v Thor argument makes me more comfortable with my vote.

[Beefster]

@beef, talk to me about 102? If you could see scum in me, and flub pushed (if he is pushing me), and you vote for him as scum...why?

It was more like a "I see where you get the idea", not that I agreed.

[Beefster]

kinda scattergun, their points aren't picked up in later posts.

They'll coalesce into something cohesive eventually. There just isn't a whole lot to go on right now.

[Beefster]

Talk to me more about that thought process though?

If you mean on post 102, sure.

My first thought passing over the post was something like "something doesn't seem quite right about this post" and then I figured out it was something like encouraging others to vote a particular player without doing it himself. It seemed lynch-centric to me.

I like to see other people's perspectives before making a judgement call, so made note that you were "possible scum" based on what others said about your opening posts that I couldn't place clearly on town or not. I could

kinda

see what people were saying about your opening posts, but I wasn't really sure what to think at the time. Thus I only said "possible scum". Really more of a null tell TBH.

FWIW, I read you as town at this point.

[Beefster]

I could see how you would see scum there, but what's newb about those posts?

It almost seems too obvious to be an actual scumtell because it bears resemblance to the kind of opening post I'd see from newbscum. I'm not really sure how to make sense of it. I'm probably reading into it too much and it might just be playstyle.

Unless I'm missing something, you didn't actually explain what about them makes them "newb", specifically. Or what makes them scum, for that matter.

I guess I'll try to elaborate some more. It's only the kind of newb that overlaps with scum, which doesn't really add up since moz is obviously no newb.

To expain where I'm coming from, newbscum will sometimes 'overcompensate' by mentioning that they're town (or in some cases, strongly imply it) in one of their opening posts. I suspect it's the kind of habit you grow out of as you gain experience, so it probably doesn't mean much and probably is just an indication of playstyle. Town do it too, (perhaps less often?) so it's probably null, especially given his experience.

I hope that makes sense. I guess I didn't explain myself very clearly the first time you asked the question.

[Beefster]

Town Lean:
Bellaphant - friendly in a town sort of way. Doesn't appear to be deceptive in any way. Genuine.
Moneybags - maybe I'm biased because he townreads me. Probably just gut though. I like his points about other players as well.
HeWhoSwims - seems genuine. Logic follows naturally in a non-deceptive way.
Klick - my initial reaction was more scum leaning, but his interactions (mostly with Bellaphant I think. Not sure of context since I'm looking through ISOs) have been useful and genuine.

Scum Lean:
Flubber - general sentiment, gut. I'm not really sure how to describe what it is that pings my scumdar with him. Maybe just that he comes off as manipulative, trying to run the show and gather towncred. *shrug*
Maxous (slight) - "don't really feel like voting Beefster anymore." switch to Bellaphant vote looks like a garbage reason. Not transparent. He doesn't look particularly deceptive though, so the scum lean is only slight.

Null:
Thor - timing reads are silly. Not too shabby for a first non-RVS wagon though. It generated some productive discussion.
PP - out of game defenses suck, but I honestly don't think they're all that AI now that I think of it. When non-game reasons are used to attack, however...
CultOfAthena - good questions. not much else.
EP - just a check in post. Nothing to go on.
mozamis - eh. I could see it going either way at this point. Hasn't contributed in a particularly helpful way, but isn't outright fluffposting.
texcat - Not enough to go on TBH.

Yup that's everybody. I thought I had more town reads than that for some reason, but then I looked at ISOs and changed my mind on some people.

[Beefster]

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.

[Beefster]

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.

But why? We have several fairly good leads right now.

The flubber wagon felt stale at the time, but it seems to be picking up momentum. She's been pinging my scumdar. She feels very methodical/mechanical in her posts.

VOTE: Flubber

I am still suspicious of COA.

[Beefster]

These posts look like newbscum, but mozamis is obviously no newb.

why?

The posts I pointed out looked a bit like alignment overcompensation, but it probably would only be a scum tell if you were new to the site. It's the kind of thing I feel like new players tend to do often as scum. At any rate, it's not a very strong overcompensation, so it probably wouldn't be all that telling even if you were a newb.

[Beefster]

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.

and what the fuck is this anyway? we are a LONG way out of RVS, So much content, so many things if your are town you could talk abotu/vote for. But you vote for no reason?!
Yep, happy with a Beef lynch. Lets go.

Pfft. I had my reasons. I just didn't feel like expressing them at the time. In my big reads post, I had her as null. (she was initially town before I posted my reads) I described her as "good questions. not much else" and after a couple more of her posts, it just solidified that her posts have been methodical and perhaps a little deceptive or misdirecting. I don't know if I can point to any particular post or line.

I haven't really been paying super close attention. I was juggling 2 other games with AGDQ.

[Beefster]

Moz seems a bit lynch focused.

[Beefster]

Texcat has done nothing to make me remember that he is in this game.

Care to have actual reads?

I feel like most of your opinions/reads have been sheeped and you're just pointing things out and not making conclusions on them. It's like you're deliberately remaining neutral to keep your options open.

[Beefster]

main thing thast pinged me abotu beef was tha tbig reads list post of his, that just looked so effing vague and empty.

You realize that every player who has posted reads has been pretty vague and empty, right? (most of them offer just a few sentences after each read) Try again.

I'll take the vague accusation proudly because I'm an intuitive big-picture kind of guy. It takes a while for me to figure out how to describe things and details bore me.

[Beefster]

Texcat has done nothing to make me remember that he is in this game.

Care to have actual reads?

I feel like most of your opinions/reads have been sheeped and you're just pointing things out and not making conclusions on them. It's like you're deliberately remaining neutral to keep your options open.

Which of my opinions have been sheeped? If anything, other people have been sheeping me this game on things I've pointed out. Also, again, a playstyle point rather than an alignment point – anyone actually reading my posts can tell that I have actual reads.

Pfft. A call for details. Maybe I'll rustle some together. If I feel like it. I don't think I feel like it.

Hiding your reads in the details of your posts is a cop out. If I have to read your posts in detail to understand your reads, that means there is more room for interpretation, meaning you can retroactively make them mean whatever you want when it is convenient. That, and not all of us have the kind of time or attention span to catch every detail or the memory to remember them all. (but the latter is a minor point)

[Beefster]

@COA/follow-up: I don't have any examples of you sheeping reads because you don't have any actual reads. It's mostly stuff like "I see what you're saying about player X" and "I don't like X from Y" (which is usually after other players have said basically the same thing), but none of this is concrete opinion of "I think X is scum/town"

VOTE: CultOfAthena

[Beefster]

Pfft. A call for details. Maybe I'll rustle some together. If I feel like it. I don't think I feel like it.

Hiding your reads in the details of your posts is a cop out. If I have to read your posts in detail to understand your reads, that means there is more room for interpretation, meaning you can retroactively make them mean whatever you want when it is convenient. That, and not all of us have the kind of time or attention span to catch every detail or the memory to remember them all. (but the latter is a minor point)

For starters, I never said they were "in the details" of my posts – I said that anyone

just reading

what I'm saying can obviously see that I have reads.

Next, are you making the point that I don't have reads, or are you making the point that my reads are too hard to discern?

A little bit of both. There are a few people I think you have opinions on, like me and maybe flub. As far as I can tell, you mostly have been making observations and asking questions but not openly stating what your conclusions are. Ultimately, this is the issue I have with you and the fact that I can't tell what your reads are from reading your posts just amplifies the problem. Thinking openly is a big part of finding scum. A little accessibility goes a long way- for more than just those of us with attention issues- due to the curb cut effect.

like I said, there's really not a lot of ambiguity as to what I'm saying.

Then help a brother out and prove me wrong. It isn't all that obvious to me. Maybe I'm just a moron with borderline ADHD.

@COA/follow-up: I don't have any examples of you sheeping reads because you don't have any actual reads. It's mostly stuff like "I see what you're saying about player X" and "I don't like X from Y" (which is usually after other players have said basically the same thing), but none of this is concrete opinion of "I think X is scum/town"

VOTE: CultOfAthena

This is literally just flat-out wrong. Completely, utterly,

verifiably

wrong. It seems like what I was saying earlier about your reading of the thread being superficial was right on the mark.

Then verifiably prove me wrong. Give me your reads. Plain, unambiguous, out-in-the-open reads. Give me some conclusions instead of just observations and questions.

[Beefster]

Thor voting for me after "not pushing me" because they're interested in me vs tex interactions is some absolute weaksauce

Anyway, this is still plenty enough reason that my wagon is bad.

Like what?

@COA/follow-up: I don't have any examples of you sheeping reads because you don't have any actual reads. It's mostly stuff like "I see what you're saying about player X" and "I don't like X from Y" (which is usually after other players have said basically the same thing), but none of this is concrete opinion of "I think X is scum/town"

Hey dude, if your issue is she's sheeping reads, and she counters that she's not - and you come back with 'well, okay, you aren't but you're still scum because 'x'"

Then something is screwy with your logic here, yeah?

Also, assuredly I have "sheeped" one of Cult's reads that was totally original when she came up with it.
So how is sheeping her scum strategy exactly?

The sheeping thing was just how I remembered it. When I looked over ISOs, it was more like "I agree with this"

Maybe there

is

something screwy with my logic. I'm just trying to make sense of what my gut is telling me.

[Beefster]

[COA] had what, one out of the blue vote and she's "under pressure"? Iirc no one but beef had said anything to her. I can't see how this quote can be considered under pressure when the simplier and more likely scenairo is that it's out of frustration.

That's the point though. She's

acting

as if she is under pressure despite only having one (rather unthreatening) vote on her.

EP's point checks out and it correlates well with my gut I think.

[Beefster]

I guess it was "acted" since she has two votes now.

I think COAscum is a possibility worth exploring. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I'll move on to look for scum elsewhere.

[Beefster]

That's the point though. She's acting as if she is under pressure despite only having one (rather unthreatening) vote on her.

How was I acting as if I was under pressure?

See EP's argument on the post you quoted. I agree with his reasoning.

[Beefster]

VOTE: cult

Where the hell did this come from?

[Beefster]

my hearts not in the Coa wagon, i think i am voting based on her wallposts which i dislike - either cos they are boring as fuck, or i have a rubbish attention span lol

Glad I'm not the only one.

[Beefster]

I was going to ask you what alignment that is, but I'm thinking there is a legitimate town reason to withhold that information in this situation.

[Beefster]

I looked over Bellaphant's ISO and realized that her first 10 posts were pretty bad. RadiantCowbells's entrance looks a bit more buddy-buddy and lighthearted than I would expect. I can see where people are coming from with the Bellaphant/RC wagon.

Texcat hasn't really done anything. I have a poor history with defending lurkers who end up flipping scum so I'd be more willing to lynch him than typically.

Going for lynch bait?

I'm not just going to cherry pick though. I've noticed COA has defended herself mostly with deflecting questions.

I can't seem to shake this gut read and I could see a possible COA/Bellaphant/??? scumteam.

As for that connection specifically, I just noticed Bella's early reads were in favor of COA. It's a really weak connection, I know. Probably just confirmation bias rearing it's ugly head at me.

[Beefster]

I'm going to talk to you as if you're town because I figure if you're scum you're going to continue to try to push me regardless of what I say and this post won't matter.

I thrive when I'm given time and space and if I have to start lynching everyone who is going to push on me to get that space then I am both capable and willing to do so.

Which is all to say that pushing me to rush my timeline isn't going to cause me to give a broad readslist, it's just going to cause me to get pissy and tunnel you to the exclusion of other players who might be better lynches because I haven't had the time and space to decide which of those players might be other lynches. I am not known for failing to do my fair share of work as town but I am known for not reacting well to bad pressure, which this certainly qualifies as.

this kinda sounds like a threat - i dont respond well to threats, so calm the aggro down. if you tunnel me simply out of omgus, then you are a poor town player. maybe you are titus lol
look, i get it - if you are town, then it always hurts to be scum read. but your predecessor was ascummy a shell, and you cam in with some fluff, so yeah, i did scum read you.
you can bluster and threaten all you want, it's not gonna help.
on a completely different subject, i dont respond well to bullies, capiche? so lower the aggro.
i really hope i havent succumbed to "scum aggro", but your massively hysterical over reaction suggests town to me.
UNVOTE:

File this under "scummy vote changes made by mozamis"

[Beefster]

Transcend gets the BOTD from me until I have a chance to ISO him. I'm not horrendously opposed to the wagon on the surface, but I need to really decide for myself.

I believe RC for now. Not sure why you'd make that claim on D1, but it's whatever.

mozamis seems opportunistic with his votes. It seems like he's sheeping every new wagon.

[Beefster]

Actually, you know what?

VOTE: mozamis

COA can wait.

[Beefster]

For the record, I suspected mozamis for a while. I can't say I like his voting patterns.

[Beefster]

@ Beef - your vote on me doesnt make sense.i have been totally transparent about my reads.i maybe have changed vote too much - i regret voting for Cult who is clearly town - but apart fromn that, i feel ok. and yo u have no idea how hard it was to unvote Radiant after she was so bloody aggressive, but i try and not to get bogged down in OMGUS.

so if you are town, unvote.

It isn't about your reads. It's about how you've been voting. Every switch I've seen you make has either been completely unexplained and sheep-like or bad response to pressure. You seem opportunistic and driven by the whims of other players.

The bolded bothers me and it makes me not want to unvote you.

[Beefster]

For the record, I suspected mozamis for a while. I can't say I like his voting patterns.

you literally never expressed any suspicion of me.
so yeah, your vot eon me does look dodgy.

I legitimately thought I did. I must've remembered something wrong.

[Beefster]

Hmm, any specific reasons for giving Transcend the BOTD?

Because I read him as a town lean at first and he only looked iffy after his interaction with RC.
BOTD until I do an ISO, which will be as soon as I catch up.

[Beefster]

EP writes a lot but doesn't say much?
There's nothing particularly scummy about him but I wouldn't be shocked.

Beefster is someone I change my mind about frequently. I'd lean town atm. He did say it's his first game in ages or whatever so that could explain some of the awkwardness

Actually it's my third game, but yeah. I recall being prime lynch bait before.

[Beefster]

I get the sense that RC is trying to run the show right now. I don't like that. I also detect fishing here and there. I also will say that I think his claim is fake. Scum know which two roles are safe fakeclaims, so it's not like it's hard not to get cc'd. He also seems to be buddying COA.

I believe Transcend's claim over RC's. Those were some pretty impressive theatrics if both of them are scum. Transcend also has a lot more to lose and has a verifiable claim. (Note that it isn't 100% falsifiable, but the mafia would have to kill his vig target to make us mislynch him as a vig.) He has too much to lose, so I think we can be pretty sure that he is telling the truth and therefore town.

[Beefster]

Oh. I should probably
VOTE: RadiantCowbells
with that kind of accusation.

[Beefster]

@HWS: turns out BOTD on Transcend was the right thing to do. I def think he's town.

Hm, I feel like my posts are getting ignored here. I also didn't get really get any responses that I'm satisfied with from my questions. Is it my posting style?

I'm retracting my retraction on my mozamis read, which is to say that I'm fairly confident that he's town and is now posting exactly how I remember him to post from our last game together.

Texcat has done nothing to make me remember that he is in this game.

Go into detail on that please? I'm very curious where you're getting a scumread on me from Bella.

Why did you completely ignore everything I said in 186 to ask Bella about why she agreed with me? Am I a leper or something?

These are all abysmal posts and I'm fine with a Turbo wagon here.

Ite let's own

VOTE: coa

I just don't see scum replacing into a game to jump on the least popular wagon. Okay. Sure. This is total WIFOM... but only on its own.
Maybe I'm alone in thinking this, but the progression looks genuine.

I'm literally confirmable sis

If two people don't die tonight then instantly neck me tomorrow.

If i am scum, I'm just a goon buying one more day

He makes a good point. Claiming a confirmable role is probably one of the worst scum plays you can make.

Other than those posts, I'm going to go with gut. Transcend screwing around with the fake cc was definitely questionable, but overall, I think it got shit done and made a point.

[Beefster]

I'm just going to call out the scumteam right now: RC/mozamis/COA

COA's silence at this point in the game is telling.

[Beefster]

Let's do it Athena!

You touch CoA I'm policy lynching you tomorrow to prevent you from vigging again.

Buddying

if it's beefster/EP/Maxous someone is buying me pizza

I'm just matching your wrong scumteam with mine which is probably also wrong on at least one person. I think I've got at least one of them right.

But you're not thinking about it with Beefster?

And I don't know, 'particularly if my other scum reads are wrong' sounds like an excuse to have a verbally declared scumread on EP while continually looking elsewhere for the wagon that you'd actually support.

This was the post that sparked the thought that RC is fishing. Looking back at it, it's really more like priming or trying to run the show, but meh. Whatever. Details are for suckers.

[Beefster]

... And where the claims are made up and the lynches don't matter.

[Beefster]

Well considering the three of you are my top suspects and that a fake claim is the most damning... Yeah. I'll keep my vote on the fake claim.

[Beefster]

Though, by all means, if you want a high-information lynch, I'm not a bad option.

[Beefster]

What would be the motivation for fake claiming? It just means that you're outed as scum sooner rather than later.

That's what makes it brilliant... Total WIFOM... but yeah, you're right. Fake claims will usually bite you in the ass eventually.

At the same time, what's the sense of hardclaiming a PR on D1 with almost no pressure on you? You're just going to get killed. It's not smart play.

I don't believe the claim... But I think I was hasty to jump on RC for it.

I haven't been thinking straight.

UNVOTE:

[Beefster]

At this point, I don't think it's possible for me to start from square one. My gut just seems to be pushing me in this weird direction.

I still think there is scum in RC, COA, and moz. Maybe all 3.

But you know what? I volunteer as tribute! Lynch me when you feel like it. I will flip Vanilla Town and my death will give a surprising amount of information.

Look, I've been playing very badly. I'm probably the town's biggest liability and yet a handful of players have defended my apparently scummy play. Thing is, scum probably wouldn't do that. They're going to go after the scummiest-looking players and

only

defend that sort of thing on their scum partners. Those who have defended my "scummiest" moments are probably town.

If this looks like a scum gambit to you, all the more reason to throw your vote at me. You'll see I have

no tricks up my sleeve

. I'm more valuable to the town dead because it confirms my alignment. Unless someone actually claims scum for some bizarre reason, I concede to being the best lynch option.

Will my accusations carry more weight after I'm confirmed town from a lynch? That remains to be seen, but my hope is "yes"

[Beefster]

Beef, my problem is that I think you're town but I disagree with all of your reads. You being lynched won't help me at all.

But that probably won't matter anyway because Transcend seems hellbent on shooting me

I think he'd be better off shooting COA, but that's just me.

My being lynched would clear EP as far as I'm concerned... But maybe I'm missing something.

[Beefster]

I just think it's really strange to see both RC and trans 180 off beef at the last second. I think his yes vote me routine may be a hail Mary. At this point I'm just a raving conspiracy theorist and I want to flip beef yo get some kind of definitive answer.

I wasn't really expecting it to have that effect. I think who has voted me and who has defended me might be telling though. I'm the ultimate lynch bait. Though, with that said, that really only applies to votes/defenses before my "hail Mary" as you called it.

If, by some freak chance, I'm spot on about the scumteam, all they have to do is paint me as a raving lunatic to discredit my dying words. At the same time, it seems like it would be rare for scum to be all on the same mislynch wagon. Last finished game I was scum in, there was never more than one of us on the winning wagon each day. So I'm probably overestimating the usefulness of my own flip.

Sorry, I wish I had more to contribute.

[Beefster]

RC's switch to EP looks like it might be an attempt at towncred or a fear of my flip. I may have made it a little too damning to throw a vote at me. Oops. Flailed a little too hard.

[Beefster]

But why are we not continuing on Beef? Why switch to EP? I don't see why you think there is a difference. I don't see why you and Trans would just back off Beef at the last second. I think we should flip Beef and see how it goes instead of trying to switch wagons at the last second.

exactly. ep is just another lurker lynch.
beef is more likely to flip scum.

I promise you there is a 0% chance I will flip scum.

[Beefster]

Beefster's reevaluation doesn't look natural

What re-evaluation?

Moneybags has these really strange tone inconsistencies where he goes from 100% literal and calm to awkward tinges of sarcasm and I'm suspicious of it, but can't pin a motivation to it atm.

I see that too. Moneybags really confuses me.

[Beefster]

I

could

do that... Hmm... If only I had some motivation...

VOTE: Klick

How's that for motivation.

[Beefster]

Nah. Just kidding.

VOTE: COA

I think that's where my vote was.

[Beefster]

Tbh I think Scum!Mozamis is the piece that everyone's missing

FWIW, I saw that like 5 pages ago. At least.

VOTE: mozamis

I could see moneyscum

[Beefster]

i am page 32 gamesolver of this game ama

Someone's a little cocky.

[Beefster]

By the way, Klick, here is my case against moz. Probably not that convincing, but I'm feeling lazy.

Moz seems a bit lynch focused.

main thing thast pinged me abotu beef was tha tbig reads list post of his, that just looked so effing vague and empty.

You realize that every player who has posted reads has been pretty vague and empty, right? (most of them offer just a few sentences after each read) Try again.

I'll take the vague accusation proudly because I'm an intuitive big-picture kind of guy. It takes a while for me to figure out how to describe things and details bore me.

VOTE: cult

Where the hell did this come from?

I'm going to talk to you as if you're town because I figure if you're scum you're going to continue to try to push me regardless of what I say and this post won't matter.

I thrive when I'm given time and space and if I have to start lynching everyone who is going to push on me to get that space then I am both capable and willing to do so.

Which is all to say that pushing me to rush my timeline isn't going to cause me to give a broad readslist, it's just going to cause me to get pissy and tunnel you to the exclusion of other players who might be better lynches because I haven't had the time and space to decide which of those players might be other lynches. I am not known for failing to do my fair share of work as town but I am known for not reacting well to bad pressure, which this certainly qualifies as.

this kinda sounds like a threat - i dont respond well to threats, so calm the aggro down. if you tunnel me simply out of omgus, then you are a poor town player. maybe you are titus lol
look, i get it - if you are town, then it always hurts to be scum read. but your predecessor was ascummy a shell, and you cam in with some fluff, so yeah, i did scum read you.
you can bluster and threaten all you want, it's not gonna help.
on a completely different subject, i dont respond well to bullies, capiche? so lower the aggro.
i really hope i havent succumbed to "scum aggro", but your massively hysterical over reaction suggests town to me.
UNVOTE:

File this under "scummy vote changes made by mozamis"

Transcend gets the BOTD from me until I have a chance to ISO him. I'm not horrendously opposed to the wagon on the surface, but I need to really decide for myself.

I believe RC for now. Not sure why you'd make that claim on D1, but it's whatever.

mozamis seems opportunistic with his votes. It seems like he's sheeping every new wagon.

You can also throw in the "looks like newb scum thing", but that's really just icing on my half-baked cake.

[Beefster]

i am page 32 gamesolver of this game ama

Someone's a little cocky.

Fixed. Should have used a picture of Revali the first time around.

[Beefster]

I think I was wrong about RC. Maybe. I think I'll have to see how things pan out, but I was probably overreacting/overthinking. His claim gets the BOTD for now.

Three basically confirmed town on the Beef wagon.
COA, Moneybags, mozamis are the three that aren't confirmed.

Care to elaborate? I think you're onto something, but I want to pick your brain.

That's currently where my suspicion lies.

[Beefster]

I just want to understand why you say 3 are basically confirmed town. I don't think I follow your logic.

[Beefster]

I'm also confused as to which 3 you think are town.

[Beefster]

Money, moz, or COA. One of these three is today's lynch.

[Beefster]

@Transcend: just NK money.

[Beefster]

More votes on moz.

[Beefster]

I'm not voting mozamis. Unless he has

widly

improved his scumgame as of recent, he's almost certainly town here. I've seen mozamis as scum before, and he simply

cannot

replicate his posting style as town.

Is there some reason we've all eliminated Beefster as a lynch today? Nothing about his reaction has changed my mind, and that's still where I'd like to lynch today. Absent the votes required I would switch to EP, but I'm still far more confident in scum Beefster.

1. Meta cases are garbage.
2. Your unwillingness to unsuspect me looks fishy
3. This post does not look genuine to me.

[Beefster]

COA or moz. Today.

[Beefster]

Everyone should list their top 3 lynch picks. We'll lynch the player who appears on the most lists.

mozamis

CultOfAthena

Moneybags

[Beefster]

Ack. I hit submit instead of preview....
I'm giving RC the benefit of doubt for now, and hoping for the best. Transcend's cc did not strike me as scummy, especially since he retracted it fairly quickly. I saw it as more of a test of RC's claim.

and kilck, what is it with you defending the bella/rc slot so hard?

I thought it was Flubber that he was defending so hard.

you ever gonna play this game?

Not playing the way you play or the way you think I should play does not mean that I am not playing.

What would be the motivation for fake claiming? It just means that you're outed as scum sooner rather than later.

Missed this the first time around. Giving RC the BOTD and then later asking (me I think) the motivation for fake claiming. Seems inconsistent.

I can kinda see what people have been saying about texcat.

I guess I can settle.

VOTE: texcat

Theory Question: I've heard from a few people on the site that it is usually a bad idea to No Lynch. Why is that? It seems to me that if everyone is town or you can't all agree on a lynch, it's best to No Lynch, especially on an early day.

[Beefster]

What's weird is that you initially doubted the claim and then later asked what the motivation for fake claiming was... But then again, I might be taking things out of context.

Why would I bother quoting myself? I know I'm a hypocrite on the idea of an RC fake claim theory... I'm not trying to hide anything.

You're reaching.

[Beefster]

HWS has flip-flopped on me so much that I don't think he could be scum. Even with players as confusing as I have apparently been, scum is generally going to try to stick with one story and not deviate from it. At least not suddenly. He has also contributed meaningfully to the conversation.

He's also playing quite a bit differently from the last time I was scum with him. As with all meta reads, take it with a grain of salt, especially since HWS is a new player and is likely to have learned from past play.

[Beefster]

Spoiler: @Beefster: Completely off-topic

Are you watching King Richard play Fortnite on Twitch? Because I just saw someone with your username in the chat XD

No. That was someone else. If I'm on Twitch, I'm probably watching Speedruns or Jonathan Blow's programming language demos.

[Beefster]

I'm not voting someone I think is town. Sorry.

[Beefster]

I need to take a look at HWS's connections. I'm legitimately surprised by the HWS flip, so I wasn't paying attention to his associations.

[Beefster]

I agree that Beef's read list has some reads based on little substance, but then again... it's early. It's certainly a bit iffy. The COA vote is pretty wtf given that there's no explanation at all.

One thing that worried me about Beef is that he was the first to "jump" on Thor after the latter brought up the timing argument which Thor then later said was to get out of RVS.

Some early reads for now.

Max - townlean, for reasons mentioned earlier

COA - townlean, hasn't posted much but 4 of her 5 posts are rich in content, and the other is an RVS vote which caused major discussion.

Moza - townlean, although there are a lot of 1-line posts he's questioning a lot ( = discussion). Not afraid to flip votes, seems to be keeping his mind open, and seems to be scumhunting too (by the PoE he mentioned earlier and this Beef stuff)

Moneybags - town, putting forward a lot of content and questions. Stronger townlean than the three above.

Flub - scumlean, for reasons mentioned earlier.

Beef - scumlean, see the beginning of this post and moz's arguments (although I don't agree with all of them)

Bella - scumlean, as some of her posts are "empty content" to me. 185 bothers me a little bit. I thought I made my opinion on Maxous pretty clear and expressed I wasn't liking the Bella wagon. I feel like 185 could be Bella trying to side a "swing vote" in me, with her. Any thoughts? It's not something I'm pretty set on right now... but it's still there, y'know.

Penguin - bit of a scumlean, as I said the argument COA made earlier holds up.

Leaves at null: ErrantP, texcat, Klick, and Thor, but apparently we need to read Thor as... Thor.

The townreads/leans are the people I really don't want to lynch today. I can live with the null ones except Thor probably. We have a lot of time left though.

Quick 5-tier read post, I feel like my previous explanations + what I've addressed since should be enough for now.

T: Mozamis, Moneybags
TL: Thor665, Beefster, COA, Max
N: Klick, texcat, EP
SL: (Transcend), Bellaphant, Flubbernugget
S: -

Transcend read is obviously mostly based on Penguin hence the brackets.

It's interesting how he SL'd on all the (now) confirmed town. I wish I had noticed this in D1 because it's pretty damning in retrospect.

Conftown Transcend, RC

Town

Townlean Thor, Moneybags, Klick?, Beef

Null Mozamis, tex, COA, Max?

Scumlean Flubber, EP

Scum

If people want me voting then VOTE: Flubbernugget but as said, I'm just barely 100% confident.

I mean

TL on Beefy and he's talking which is good.

SL on Tex who's... not talking.

There could easily be one scum between those and if so I'd say it's tex every time, 90% of the time.

Interesting that he never had any hard scum reads.

Based just on HWS's townleans, it looks like Thor, COA, moz, and Max are reasonable candidates for one scum partner. EP and myself look like a decent candidates for the other based on HWS readlist patterns (EP starts null and gradually becomes a SL).

EP ISO pending.

[Beefster]

EP ISO analysis

General:

• EP pretty much just ignored HWS the entire game up to this point.
  
• Opportunistic on #252 vote on Max
  
• Admits to not reading on #1175. Could be an attempt at looking more town.

Assuming EP/

COA

/HWS:

• EP #312 appears to be distancing, followed by backing off in #499.

Plausible.

If EP/

moz

/HWS:

• EP #178 reads moz as town and then never speaks of him again.
  
• I would expect
  some
  degree of interaction with scum partners - or at least one of them.

Somewhat less likely.

If EP/

Max

/HWS:

• #252 vote is opportunistic and could be distancing. It's not well explained and seems like a common move made on a scum partner.

Somewhat more likely if EP is scum.

If EP/

Thor

/HWS:

• Odd how he criticizes Thor going after Max and then jumps on the wagon later.

Probably not the scumteam.

anyway...
VOTE: Errantparabola
I noticed some things in his ISO that I didn't the first time. They are quite damning.

[Beefster]

moz/EP/HWS seems more likely looking at moz's ISO than from EP's. I only skimmed over it for votes though.

[Beefster]

If you were scum, someone would have cc'd you by now.

[Beefster]

UNVOTE:

#1194 looks super town to me tbh. That is probably one of the most (surprisingly) genuine out-of-game defenses I have ever seen. Maybe my scumdar is just broken. I dunno. It seemed to be malfunctioning big time on HWS.

[Beefster]

@EP: While I can get behind your sentiment that RC is scum based on his playstyle, unless you're going to counterclaim (you could have softclaimed), RC is pretty much as conftown as it gets.

[Beefster]

Meh. Not feeling into reading in detail right now, but I saw a mozamis vote and I want in on that action.

VOTE: mozamis

[Beefster]

moz, I think I see what you're saying about Thor. His HWS vote was out of the blue. I could see COA being the third scum of a Thor/HWS scumteam.

Seeing as I can also see a COA/moz/HWS scumteam, I want to vote COA for being the common denominator in many of my top suspected scumteams, but I think
VOTE: Thor
Is in order at this time.

[Beefster]

In the unlikely chance of Thor flipping town, Beefster deserves to be powerlynched into a new dimension.

I'd replace out for lack of enthusiasm, but I suspect that will pass and I don't have any other active games right now. I've been doing a lot of introspection lately and haven't really put much energy into the game.

[Beefster]

@Beef - literally moz is not dealing straight, and I think it's obvious. However you are apparently reading my rebuttals and his and finding him to be full of facts and me to be full of lies.
Why?
Please explain it, I'd be curious to see the thought process.
I promise not to even debate it - and just leave it alone for others to assess, but I want to see you unpack it.

Like I mentioned before, I'm not paying super close attention. I just see his point about the way you've been playing.

I can pretty much guarantee that moz v Thor is not scum v scum, but I also don't think it's town v town.

From what I can glean from skimming, your reactions haven't exactly been the best, but I really should be reading closer. But not too close, because then I start nitpicking and miss the mark.

[Beefster]

I'm not budging on my moz townread. I'm more confident in moz!town than any other read I have. RC, just for a moment look at this game from the perspecitve of moz being town – what then?

moz/COA/HWS scumteam confirmed.

VOTE: mozamis

[Beefster]

@Thor: Don't be silly. I'm the lynch bait.

But really, good catch.

[Beefster]

@Beefster - why the sudden reverse on the Thor/Moz situation? You have been having a habit of late of just kind of going with the flow, and it's not as endearing as your earlier play.

that is a good call, Beef you think me and Thor are scum together? I mean...wtf??!!

Um. No. If anything, you're mutually exclusive.

I can see moz/COA/HWS or Thor/HWS/??? but not Thor/moz/HWS

But tbh, I haven't really been paying super close attention to the game.

[Beefster]

@Beefster - why the sudden reverse on the Thor/Moz situation? You have been having a habit of late of just kind of going with the flow, and it's not as endearing as your earlier play.

that is a good call, Beef you think me and Thor are scum together? I mean...wtf??!!

Um. No. If anything, you're mutually exclusive.

I can see moz/COA/HWS or Thor/HWS/??? but not Thor/moz/HWS

But tbh, I haven't really been paying super close attention to the game.

so me thor and Cult are your biggest scum reads?

Yep. Pretty much. EP is somewhere in there, maybe. I'm semi-sheeping on that.

Most of my moz/COA suspicion are based on D1 and some possible links between the two of your that I'm too lazy to dive into right now.

[Beefster]

Uhhhm. No. I see where you get the idea, but you're dead wrong.

But go ahead and vote me if you must.

[Beefster]

Alright it's hardball time.

CULT OF ATHENA.

If you do not vote Mozamis with me you are going to be downgraded 2 tiers to a level 6 friend.

VOTE: mozamis

Just kidding.

VOTE: Errantparabola

Yes. In my memory I remembered Transcend and RC both ccing each other, and Transcend going back on it. I think I assumed that both claims were fake.

If you assumed both claims were fake, why did you expect to die night one? Did you expect scum to kill you?

But you never gave the "conflicting" part of that interpretation – you never gave any reasons that you townread him. I don't see why, from your perspective, your Max townread exists at all, and combined with the fact that you were voting him just yesterday and never gave any indication of rethinking that read, I'm pretty sure you're faking your reads.

I mean this is provably untrue.

Maxous is definitely playing like lethargic/carefree town or doing a good job of emulating it so I'm conflicted

The thing is that you haven't said anything about

why

he's carefree town. Even if we were to both agree on him looking carefree, you haven't said anything about why that carefree nature is coming from town rather than from scum. Also, max has been playing in largely the same way today as yesterday, so if you're reading him as town for his playstyle today, why were you voting him yesterday?

moz/Athena scumteam confirmed

[Beefster]

I tracked Mozamis to the nightkill btw.

Athena, I don't think any of your lines of questioning are salient in the slightest. If it becomes something people in general care about then sure I'll go line for line on my thoughts.

I'm accusing you of lying and making up your reads. What about that doesn't seem "salient" to you?

Okay CoA let's play a game.

Say I would sheep you on any wagon today on the condition that if it flipped town you would powerlynch Mozamis tomorrow.

Who would your lynch be and why?

I'll say this again – just because I'm wrong in one instance doesn't imply that I'm wrong in another.

I'm also not sure why I'm specifically the one you're trying to convince on this, especially when I've already made it clear that I think mozamis is town.

I don't think there's any disputing a confirmed tracker. If RC followed mozamis to the kill, either he's lying or mozamis is scum. We'll know for sure which one it is after we lynch mozamis.

VOTE: mozamis

I think that's where my vote was already, so I guess I'm reparking my vote.

[Beefster]

I wasn't intentionally ignoring it. I legitimately didn't notice it. I will admit to being lazy.

[Beefster]

Now that you are aware it was a lie - why is your vote not moving?

Because I still think moz is scum.

[Beefster]

My self-reflection frenzy seems to have passed. Now I'm going to start paying attention again.

I'll do ISOs on moz, COA, and tex over the next couple of days.

Moz seemed to be a bit self conscious early on, but I need to look into details about interactions.

[Beefster]

I don't have a ton of time right now, so this is going to be sparse. But it's one of the ISOs I promised. Most of it, anyway.

Hi everyone, let's make it a good game and good luck!

VOTE: Thor665

this is my least favourite post. bit self conscious?
VOTE: hewhoswims

Finding scum in scum from basically nothing:

+5 scum points

Easily written off for being early game:

-3 scum points

maybe i am just a sucker for effort, but i am quite liking Hewhoswims catch up posts So:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bellaphant

Hops off scum also for basically no reason:

+1 scum point

VOTE: Beef
that list...scummy, empty BS.
Bella, Beef, Klick scum team?

Needed for context.

Swims and Money town - so much content.
@ Thor - i guess i meant "changed his vote", not "changed his mind". He changed his vte when someoenasked him why he was voting Cult. looked like scum panicing to me.

P.O.E town: Moz, thor, swims,money,flubber,maxous and cult.

Lynch in: Penguin (drops out of town bloc because no scumhunting yet),Bella, Beef, errant,klick,tex
so we got to the coin flip stage!
my scum team is prob. bella, beef and ??? atm

Eh. I was looking legitimately scummy for that.

+2 town points

It takes a while for me to figure out how to describe things and details bore me.

a kindred spirit! me too, i like the overview approach!

gonna UNVOTE:
i was really flying on the caffiene when i voted him and there is a chance i was simply talking out of my ARSE.
he has responded well- i think its a fair point to say all reads are quite vague at this stage.
anyway, its all good for P.O.E!
Beef into town pile.

Jumps off lynchbait wagon with garbage excuse:

+1 scum point

VOTE: cult

Votes COA out of nowhere. Absolutely not suspected before this point.

+3 scum points

Conftown Transcend, RC

Town

Townlean Thor, Moneybags, Klick?, Beef

Null Mozamis, tex, COA, Max?

Scumlean Flubber, EP

Scum

If people want me voting then VOTE: Flubbernugget but as said, I'm just barely 100% confident.

this is his first vote since his FIRST POST OF THE GAME!
and what a surprise, hes got EP and Flubber as scum leans! Obv scum setting up obv lynch bait with Max.
I still think Money is probably in the scum team, but we should definitely lynch Hewho and Max.
VOTE: Hewhoswims

Possible bus for towncred:

+2 scum points

,

+1 town point

screw it, i'm probably overthinking it.
VOTE: texcat

Jumps onto lynch bait wagon:

+1 scum point

good vote, can we finally do this?
obv i'll go back to tex if need be.
VOTE: hewhoswims

Icky vote flopping:

+2 scum points

Totals:

12 scum points

,

4 town points

I still have another 50-something posts to look over in moz's ISO.

[Beefster]

Compensation for possible cherry-picking: I dunno.

+6 town

?

It's an arbitrary scoring system anyway.

[Beefster]

Beef and Thor are rather obvious town based on interactions with the flipped scum.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

I would expect the opposite conclusion on me since I thought both of the flipped scum were town. But I'll take it.

Some of my more recent stuff on COA was based on moz scum buddy, which we now know is impossible, so I'll have to look at her ISOs before I jump on this wagon.

On the surface, I approve.

[Beefster]

If COA is scum, she hasn't bussed, though this sticks out to me as possible buddying/IIOA:

I like 100 except the assumption that scum would be always distancing in the early game. Why wouldn't scum want to throw a little accusation out which can later be used to say "Look at this, I'm not this guy/gal's partner"? (among other stuff of course)

That's definitely something scum go for often, but I believe that tends to happen later in the game, when scum are more confident in their position to start to distance and play for the long game. The reason I pointed it out as an early read in specific is because, coming right out of rvs, tying yourself to your scumbuddy like that could be something that lasts for the rest of the game (and a short game that would be). It's also something unlikely to be WIFOM-ed, because I don't think a lot of people look at very early game interactions like that.

[Beefster]

Most likely scum at this point is COA, EP, and

maybe

Klick. I'm not sure if moz fits in there somewhere, but I'll sheep what people were saying about moz/tex scumteam being very unlikely. For now.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

[Beefster]

If COA is scum, she hasn't bussed, though this sticks out to me as possible buddying/IIOA:

You're saying that I was buddying my scum buddy?

Does that make sense to you?

I'm not sure what doesn't make sense about that. Throughout this entire game, you have more or less avoided the subject of both confirmed scum. Your vote hasn't been on either one.

[Beefster]

Tex got off Beef to vote HWS - continued bussing or abandoning a mislynch?
Klick got off Tex to vote HWS - so either that was very aggressive bussing or, like I said, he's probably town.

Beefster is the one missing name from the Day 1 Tex push who didn't come and help the Day 2 tex push.

@Beef - why weren't you on Tex Day 2?

She looked like town lurker tbh.

I guess I tunneled on moz/COA and got way too lazy.

[Beefster]

Beefster's a hard townread, and that's reinforced by texcat's play yesterday. She really wanted her Beefster case to go through. It didn't look like bussing at all.

Not to mention that bussing would be extremely stupid at that point in the game.

Just saying.

[Beefster]

I forgot about Maxous. After looking at his ISO, I noticed his scum interactions are GOLD.

> while not pushing any lynch agendas

Not pushing anything makes him a town lean? Why?

because if he's helping push good discussion along without having a particular lynch agenda than that is objectively pro-town behaviour

uhh real mountain out of a molehill here guys.

i just felt Athena and Penguin were a bit towny in the first couple of posts. I didn't mention names because i wanted to avoid the Q&A but it happened anyway.

I have more solid town leans on Moneybags and Mozamis by this stage.

This post throws me off. It feels as though Maxous is trying to shrug everything off and dissuade the line of discussion as much as he can, posting everything necessary to get the heat off of him, as though checking through a list.

well sure maybe, but why's that particularly scum-motivated?

i'm obviously not encouraging a wagon on myself and I *am* helping with reads

-
caught up.
don't really feel like voting Beefster anymore.

VOTE: Bellaphant

for now
I felt like she could of said a little more in the previous post

Bold emphasis added. Looks like self-conscious deflection.

not entirely sure if it's playstyle or alignment but texcat is a little quiet.
she's only talking about a select few people.

Calls attention to texcat without placing a vote.

I will legit be so disappointed if Moneybags is scum. I like his posts so much.

It's really hard for me to see HeWhoSwims as scum right now too. He comes across as very genuine in a noobish sort of way? Can't think of a better term.
but he doesn't *seem* experienced enough to be faking it, imo. Maybe i'm underestimating him but :shrug:, i really just think he's town

HWS townread.

trying to think of anything more to say but meh.

here's just my gut reads and feelings, fuck it

I think they're town:

HeWhoSwims, Moneybags, Klick, Flubbernugget, CultOfAthena

Haven't had an issue with:

Errantparabola

Players i'm flip-flopping on:

mozamis, Beefster

Tracker claim:

Radiant Cowbells

Under Review:

Thor665, texcat

Probably just scum:

Transcend

texcat was "under review" in this post, but analysis on her never came.

Yeah I'm not voting Beefster

This one was right after my "go ahead and lynch me post"
It's likely he was trying to avoid risk here.

Oh damn, was 5 mins too slow.
I've no interest in Texcat lynch.

VOTE: Mozamis

Let's get on with this and see what happens

Expresses disinterest with texcat lynch.

Alright we have 2 days left.
I actually have a lot of time early tomorrow so I'll get on this.

Wasn't Texcat a counter-wagon to HWS anyway?
Not sure it's the best lynch even from a gaming point of view unless you have something REALLY solid

Trying to deflect the lynch without actually defending texcat.

Who Texcat?
I've really cooled off on that.

EP or Moz atm

Lampshades the fact that he has ignored the issue of texcat for most of the game, pointing out random things here and there without doing anything about it. It's essentially how I subconsciously would act as scum.

VOTE: Maxous

[Beefster]

Hey all.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

I have a couple of town leans already I think

VOTE: Maxous
This looks like a blatant attempt to look like you're scum hunting without actually doing anything.

---

I like Penguin's reaction to Thor's case. And I liked that Thor pushed the case to get the reaction.

If Maxous is scum, this post jumps out at me as early distancing. Interaction between the two was kept to a minimum.

[Beefster]

I agree that Beef's read list has some reads based on little substance, but then again... it's early. It's certainly a bit iffy. The COA vote is pretty wtf given that there's no explanation at all.

One thing that worried me about Beef is that he was the first to "jump" on Thor after the latter brought up the timing argument which Thor then later said was to get out of RVS.

Some early reads for now.

Max - townlean, for reasons mentioned earlier

COA - townlean, hasn't posted much but 4 of her 5 posts are rich in content, and the other is an RVS vote which caused major discussion.

Moza - townlean, although there are a lot of 1-line posts he's questioning a lot ( = discussion). Not afraid to flip votes, seems to be keeping his mind open, and seems to be scumhunting too (by the PoE he mentioned earlier and this Beef stuff)

Moneybags - town, putting forward a lot of content and questions. Stronger townlean than the three above.

Flub - scumlean, for reasons mentioned earlier.

Beef - scumlean, see the beginning of this post and moz's arguments (although I don't agree with all of them)

Bella - scumlean, as some of her posts are "empty content" to me. 185 bothers me a little bit. I thought I made my opinion on Maxous pretty clear and expressed I wasn't liking the Bella wagon. I feel like 185 could be Bella trying to side a "swing vote" in me, with her. Any thoughts? It's not something I'm pretty set on right now... but it's still there, y'know.

Penguin - bit of a scumlean, as I said the argument COA made earlier holds up.

Leaves at null: ErrantP, texcat, Klick, and Thor, but apparently we need to read Thor as... Thor.

The townreads/leans are the people I really don't want to lynch today. I can live with the null ones except Thor probably. We have a lot of time left though.

Quick 5-tier read post, I feel like my previous explanations + what I've addressed since should be enough for now.

T: Mozamis, Moneybags
TL: Thor665, Beefster, COA, Max
N: Klick, texcat, EP
SL: (Transcend), Bellaphant, Flubbernugget
S: -

Transcend read is obviously mostly based on Penguin hence the brackets.

Conftown Transcend, RC

Town

Townlean Thor, Moneybags, Klick?, Beef

Null Mozamis, tex, COA, Max?

Scumlean Flubber, EP

Scum

If people want me voting then VOTE: Flubbernugget but as said, I'm just barely 100% confident.

I mean

TL on Beefy and he's talking which is good.

SL on Tex who's... not talking.

There could easily be one scum between those and if so I'd say it's tex every time, 90% of the time.

texcat was HWS's null for most of his time alive. Max was in his town pile for most of that time as well.

It's pretty common (I think) for scum to put one partner on their null list and the other on their town leans. Maxous fits the bill here.

[Beefster]

I feel like my progression on HWS was reasonable.
I went soft on him early because I thought he was a newbie but got more suspect toward him when I realised he wasn't.

This seems focused on action and appearances rather than genuine motivation.

Maybe I'm just crazy.

[Beefster]

The problem I have with considering max as scum based on HWS reads is that HWS had a lot of tr's.

That being said, I would like to iso dive them later today

Well considering that's only support for the actual ISO on Maxous, I wouldn't expect it to mean much by itself.

[Beefster]

I'm pretty sure either COA or Max is scum. Both of their ISOs are consistent with scum play.

I'll vote for whichever today. We have more than enough room for error.

VOTE: cultofathena

[Beefster]

By the way, another thought for those of you who think that I'm the last scum: quite clearly I'm comfortable hard defending people I townread, as I did with mozamis. If I were scum with HWS and texcat, why just let both of them get lynched when I could have defended them the same way and not had it be suspicious or uncharacteristic?

I get the sense that scum tend to avoid actively defending scumpartners. I know I didn't defend either of my partners the last time I was scum and survived past D1.

I guess there's a subconscious fear that defending your partners makes you look bad if they ever flip.

[Beefster]

I'm torn between COA and Max. Both seem equally likely to be scum IMO.

I'll drop the hammer I guess.

[Beefster]

More votes on Max/COA please.

I think I'm leaning more toward COA atm.

[Beefster]

@COA: Is there any reason to be afraid of being lynched as town when we literally have room for 2 mislynches before scum wins?

[Beefster]

At a 3:1, the best option for town is to No Lynch. I think.

[Beefster]

Someone should hammer.

[Beefster]

@COA: Is there any reason to be afraid of being lynched as town when we literally have room for 2 mislynches before scum wins?

Let's say you

know

someone is town – a cop innocent, a friendly neighbor, whatever. Would you ever accept a lynch on that person just because it's

unlikely

that town loses?

I see what you're saying, but it's a lot easier to vet someone else than it is to vet yourself. Sometimes being a team player means letting yourself be mislynched when there isn't pressure to get it right the first time.

[Beefster]

I can't get behind this EP wagon. I don't see it. It doesn't look like he knows something that we don't and he was pretty strong on the texcat wagon, which would be a stupid bus move for D2 with 1 scum already down.

I'll take a look at COA's case and try to see another angle.

[Beefster]

Overall, this looks like a standard scum desperation case.

Errant has terrible associatives with texcat and I'm not sure how you all aren't seeing it. I'll go through them.

texcat: That line thing looks like a smart way to format posts. In fact, I’m doing it right now. Thanks texcat. I'll give it a test run, see if I like it.

If you read 178, he gives some kind of read on literally every single other player that he mentions except for texcat, who he simply makes a comment to regarding using lines for formatting. Even further, there were multiple people he didn't mention at all in his readslist, so it's not even as if he was going and commenting on everyone – it seems to me like he felt the need to mention his scumbuddy but didn't have a meaningful comment to make.

That is the only mention of tex for day one.

Personally, I feel like this is reaching. D1 is usually a shot in the dark. There were a lot of other players he didn't really mention on D1. This looks like cherry picking.

Flubber:

Your sudden focus on texcat doesn't make sense to me. What about her catchup that you reference in 179 is weird? Is it just lack of content?

Defends tex where HWS was doing the same thing, possibly coordinated in daychat:

Spoiler:

So make a case or something

Hmmmm...

VOTE: Flubbernugget
Telling me to make a case, when you are not. Plus telling us that voting Bella is a town thing to do, when you are not.

QFT.

Flubber, care to explain why both of these points are a thing?

Hm, guess I can see that. It just sounded like you were trying to let texcat make a case while ducking suspicion on your own so to speak.

I still think the Bella wagon is really meh but w/e. As long as it's not lynched without more incriminating stuff towards Bella.

pedit: I see moneybags being a voice of reason but don't see why it's bad. Especially in D1 which can be a chaos of accusations/reads without base and the highest amount of players screaming through each other.

1261 is large to the point where I don't want to quote it but it's basically the classic oblique angle that scum take when talking about a scummy partner, the "willing to vote there but I have other avenues I'd rather pursue", same thing in 1492.

I think that's a fair point about 1261, but I don't see it for 1492.

---

RC's gonna hate me if he ends up being right, but I'll go here for now, I think I vastly prefer it.
VOTE: texcat

His vote on tex in 1627 comes at a time when it looked almost certain that moz was going to get lynched and despite EP expressing willingness to vote moz beforehand – that's a play for looking good on VCA and doesn't come from someone who had a real scumread on mozamis.

What kind of scum derails a mislynch to bus? That is the dumbest possible strategy.

Around 1700 RC switches off moz and begins considering the possibility of an EP/tex scumteam, and then EP enters the thread with this:

think scum just wins this game. It doesn't seem plausible that all remaining scum is in {Maxous / tex / Klick / moz} just from basic scumteam theory. I'm also really surprised that RC scumreads me, the distance from my scumgame here is extremely easy to identify

And RC notices the exact same thing that I did:

why did you suddenly get super demoralized when I expressed support for the same lynch that you did and stopped voting someone you thought was town?

EP's explanation in 1710 speaks to the

content

of what he was saying, but I don't think he can conceal the emotional reaction contained within 705 initially.

Reaching.

It seems like nobody else shares my opinion on this, and I'm not sure why. If it's just for the tex vote yesterday, I think it's very realistic that scum!EP feels like it's necessary to bus tex in the situation that he was in, and the context surrounding his vote makes me think that it's very likely.

"y u no agree with me?" This could just as well look like frustrated town as desperate scum, but given the context, I'm going to go with "desperate scum"

I don't see how this scum!EP tex bus makes any sense. It's a dumb move because WIFOM and bussing almost always comes back to bite you in the butt. EP is clearly not this stupid... We could get into WIFOM here, but we have room for 2 mislynches and I'd say EP's third on the chopping block anyway.

More votes on COA.

[Beefster]

Personally, I feel like this is reaching. D1 is usually a shot in the dark. There were a lot of other players he didn't really mention on D1. This looks like cherry picking.

I am not faulting him for simply not mentioning texcat enough on day one – I'm saying that the one mention he

had

of texcat was superficial. How is that "cherry picking"?

Because that kind of superficial interaction is common in general. Lots of people ignored texcat on D1, myself included. It's cherry picking to single out EP for this.

What kind of scum derails a mislynch to bus? That is the dumbest possible strategy.

You're not getting what I'm saying. EP wasn't "derailing" the texcat wagon to bus – he was hopping off of it to have his vote on a scumbuddy when the day ended (in the moz lynch). Nothing about it is a dumb strategy in the slightest – I'd say it's a fairly good strategy.

Why not just fence-sit the moz mislynch? Why would he be so aggressive toward texcat?

Your logic doesn't add up. Aggressive bussing is actually a terrible strategy. Going out of your way to make sure you have a vote on a scumpartner you don't intend to lynch is silly. Aggressive bussing usually comes back to bite you in the ass.

I don't see how this scum!EP tex bus makes any sense. It's a dumb move because WIFOM and bussing almost always comes back to bite you in the butt. EP is clearly not this stupid... We could get into WIFOM here, but we have room for 2 mislynches and I'd say EP's third on the chopping block anyway.

More votes on COA.

"Because WIFOM"? I don't think you actually understood what I was saying.

The only reason to bus is because you think that nobody else would do it, when it's actually one of the first "sneaky" things people think of. Most people who bus do so badly. Most of the time it backfires at some point. Add to that the consequences of being down one mafioso and you realize that bussing isn't all that clever.

If scum!EP is employing WIFOM-based bussing, it will bite him in the ass before he has a chance to win.

[Beefster]

Basically, I reject your EP case because it revolves around a bus move that is actually

really

stupid and is basically a guaranteed loss.

[Beefster]

We'll get to EP later if COA flips town. Unless scum is in Klick, Thor665, moz, or myself, we have nothing to worry about.

[Beefster]

A hammer drop would be great right about now.

[Beefster]

Nothing important is happening

That's why we need a hammer. We're not going to get anywhere at this point until we get a flip even if COA is town.

[Beefster]

Thor and Beef are doing all of my defending for me, mwahaha.

I think
VOTE: Maxous
is the play.

If this is a townflip then I think the lynch is actually between Athena and Thor.
Athena is correct in that I am not confident that her lynch ends the game.
Still willing to hammer her if someone L-1s and will do so when that happens.

Okay... So why is Thor on the chopping block now?

This post pretty much flipped my read on EP 180 degrees.

VOTE: ErrantParabola
Athena and Maxous are next.

[Beefster]

That's L-1, BTW

[Beefster]

Nope staying on Athena.
If Errant was scum Moz would of been lynched yesterday
He had an easy chance to push that through but decided to bus hid buddy instead?
Nah

True. I think my switch to EP was impulsive and emotional.

VOTE: COA

[Beefster]

I need to finish this game before Earthbound Mafia starts so that I'm not in too many games...

[Beefster]

I need to finish this game before Earthbound Mafia starts so that I'm not in too many games...

I hope I never have to play with you again if you're town.

A little harsh, don't you think? I've just overextended myself a bit is all. I'm sure I'll get better before you have to play with me again. I'm effectively a newbie because I took a 6 year hiatus.

[Beefster]

To all those not voting for COA, what do I have to do to convince you vote COA?

[Beefster]

Also, a stray thought:

Consider the possibility of Klick!Scum. He's pushed all 3 of the current wagons at different points IIRC. 3 mislynches are needed to win. If scum, he needs to make sure we're all thinking of 3 viable wagons. It's a bit of a stretch, but maybe worth considering.

Will check ISO.

[Beefster]

Nah. Never mind. Too much bussing if that were the case.

Klick is definitely town.

[Beefster]

Also, I don't think he's been on the Maxous wagon at all.

[Beefster]

Flubber is IC and is town by default
Klick and moz were on all the right wagons and thus are most likely town
Thor got the texcat wagon right at the last moment
I wasn't on either of the wagons, but I know I'm town.
EP would have been stupid to bus on D2 with 1 scum already down

We've POE'd down to 3 possible scum with 2 being probable.

At this point, unless we're going to second-guess the 4 probably-not-scum players, all we have to do is pick someone to lynch and roll with it. Even if your top scumpick isn't the same, we'll get to that player eventually.

[Beefster]

Thus why I eliminated that possibility as soon as I read his ISO. I was also wrong about him pushing all 3 current wagons, so that theory is completely wrong.

[Beefster]

Well I got one scum right from my D1 guesses. Not too shabby.

@COA: sometimes distancing can hurt you. Ideally you want to act as if you're just as confused as the rest of the town, but that's

extremely hard

to pull off.

[Beefster]

2/3 can't complain

Sorry klick, sorry money

Pedit well i can but a certain someone forced me not to vig a scum slot.

Yeah. I wanted to vig her too.