Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over


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Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:24 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Hey everyone, glad to be here. I'm a returning player that's been away for nearly 5 years so I'm a bit rusty on the meta. That said, VOTE: ErrantParabola?
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Post Post #17 (isolation #1) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Moneybags »

My kneejerk reaction was to go "oh hey yeah they are only 4 minutes apart". Then I remembered email subscriptions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post Post #36 (isolation #2) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:21 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 27, Thor665 wrote: Why announce town leans without expanding on them?
In post 28, Maxous wrote:because someone would inevitably ask for detailed explanations of page 1 gut reads
What is there to say? Is it not possible to have a vague impression of a town read that would sound ridiculous to put into words?
In post 26, Bellaphant wrote:Hii all.
The way she puts 2 'i's instead of 1... so friendly and relaxed, probably town.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #3) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:25 am

Post by Moneybags »

I'd like to add that yeah there's several other reasons that could explain Penguin's quick entrance. It's a pretty weak argument. I don't see why anyone would push it so hard unless they were looking for a low hanging fruit get an easy misslynch.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #4) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:26 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 38, Moneybags wrote: low hanging fruit get an easy misslynch.
English is hard ok
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Post Post #46 (isolation #5) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:45 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 40, Thor665 wrote: PEdit - if you think I'm chasing a low hanging fruit (and I am blatantly chasing the Penguin wagon) why aren't you tagging me over it directly instead of empty side line commenting on it to see if other people agree with you before you go in on the thought?
Because I'm not about to say "hey everyone, thor is
clearly
doing this scum thing despite there being other equally valid explanations for his behavior". That would be pretty hypocritical considering my stance on Penguin, wouldn't you think?

For example one of those equally valid explanations would be that you're overly-aggressively scum hunting right out the gate. In this scenario, Beefster's casual defense of Penguin may be viewed in an incriminating light.

I'm not looking to pin everyone down as 100% scum or town on page 2. I'm just looking to put various information on the table so opinions can more quickly be formed.
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Post Post #49 (isolation #6) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:51 am

Post by Moneybags »

I was just using your post as an example, yes.
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Post Post #64 (isolation #7) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:41 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 57, mozamis wrote:
In post 24, HeWhoSwims wrote:Hi everyone, let's make it a good game and good luck!

VOTE: Thor665
this is my least favourite post. bit self conscious?
VOTE: hewhoswims
Is this supposed to be a RV? I thought we were past that.

In post 59, Thor665 wrote: What made you call out my action unprompted and Beefeater's only when needing to justify your actions as non-scummy?
I didn't think it was prompted at all. I was just throwing out additional notes.


More on Penguin:
- I like the reactions we've gotten out of it so far but I feel like it's a waste of time. I personally don't feel like there's a solid read to be had on Penguin based on what we've seen.
- I feel like Thor's overaggressive scumhunting doesn't make him town based on his experience with the game.
- I do however think it's incredibly effective. But in terms of Penguin I think the argument made is very weak and won't yield any further results.

On Maxous's "I have town reads"
- I feel like it's an odd thing to say but I can see why he wouldn't supply reasons. Sometimes you just get vague impressions, it happens.
- What I don't understand is
why he felt the need to speak out on these impressions.



PEdit: Not a fan of how quick penguin is to get the focus shifted on someone else...
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Post Post #65 (isolation #8) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:41 am

Post by Moneybags »

Also, UNVOTE:
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Post Post #67 (isolation #9) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:54 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 66, HeWhoSwims wrote:I'm not one to usually have solid reads right out of RVS, but I am townlean on Thor now for, as I said, scumhunting (although it's OTT) is a catalyst for discussion -> is good. Would scum!Thor really want to put that much attention onto themselves that early?

I can see why you get vague impressions but I don't think they'll be helpful to the game... someone isn't scum or town based on the way they cast a vote in RVS or say hello to competitors :? so having impressions is okay, but why mention them as you said?

pedit: Since I'm still on thor, UNVOTE: as well.
I may be using the term wrong, but isn't that considered WIFOM? It seems thor does this every game so I'm not convinced it can be a guaranteed town tell. If the goal of scum is to act as town as possible, and scum hunting is a towntell (as it would seems everyone agrees, as a few have pinned thor as town already) would it not make sense to scumhunt? I'm not saying he's either, just that I'm not so quick to pin him as either this early.

I'm moreso starting to agree. I don't see why he felt the need to add that other than to say "yes I too am contributing". I thought people were reading into it too much at first but I can see why now more than I did previously.
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Post Post #74 (isolation #10) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:20 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 70, Thor665 wrote: What made you "throw out notes" on me and not Beefeater at that moment?
Is me alluding that Beefeater siding against you and with Penguin is fishy not considered throwing out a note on Beefeater? Or am I not understanding the question?
I don't see a difference in saying that vs making a comment on you going at penguin's throat. Which at this point is more clearly an interrogation and not a push for a lynch.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #11) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:42 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Ok so I'll start here by responding to Thor.
In post 81, Thor665 wrote: CLearly we are not communicating functionally - here's the timeline as I understand it with my question restated for clarity;

You: Thor is pushing for low hanging fruit, amirite?
Me: If you think that, why aren't you coming at me over it? I think you're looking for support before getting behind something.
You: Because you may not be scum, for instance, look at Beefeater's thing too - maybe you're town.
Me: Then why call me out and not Beefeater at the same time?
You: I did call out Beefeater.

So to clarify/reask my question;

Initially you *did not* call out Beefeater's actions. You only called out mine in a scummy light.
Why do that if you also had questions about Beefeater/didn't really think I was scummy for what I was doing?
Walk me through the whole thought process if you can.
Ok so I think you may have misinterpreted what I meant in . To adjust your overview:

Money: Thor is pushing for low hanging fruit, amirite?
Thor: If you think that, why aren't you coming at me over it? I think you're looking for support before getting behind something.
Money: Because you may not be scum,
there may be an equally valid explanation for your behavior. To say otherwise would be hypocritical of me given my stance on PP. Also, in such a scenario where you are town, I find it odd that Beefeater is very specifically trying to be lowkey about defending PP.
()
Thor: Then why call me out and not Beefeater at the same time?
Money:
What do you mean, I did call out Beefeater just as equally as I "called out" you. I'm not pinning down either of you as scum, simply pointing out potentially scummy behavior.


I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.

That said, I more clearly see the importance of me being more direct with my observations. In a new post (or perhaps multiple) I'll start providing some more detailed reads. I'll start on it now.
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Post Post #150 (isolation #12) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:26 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Starting with Beefster:

Despite my inital thoughts from I feel like he's a pretty strong town read.
In post 102, Beefster wrote:
In post 98, Flubbernugget wrote:Bella votes are pro town atm
Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber
Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.
I agree. Actually I think it's very manipulative. I'm aware he didn't vote for Bell but that doesn't mean I like the way he's presenting himself here.
In post 115, Beefster wrote: Turns out I misread. You're absolutely right.

That changes a lot, actually. It basically flips my reads on Thor and PP.

This Flubber v Thor argument makes me more comfortable with my vote.
I feel like in a world where Beef is scum, he would never 180 like this after attention being drawn to . Even though I disagree with him here I appreciate his ability to make such a blatantly drastic, yet honest change in opinion. I feel like scum would be more focused on "how can I subtlety change my mind on this" rather than just an outright 180.


On Max:

I don't feel like max is scum. I feel like his analysis of HeWhoSwims in is very detailed. I'm not sure if I believe it's 100% accurate. But I think it's a very detailed thing to find, and not something you can really pull out of a hat if you're on the spot and need to throw out some contribution. He's also been contributing since.
I still feel like his remark of having reads but not listing them is strange. However I think it's more interesting to see everyone else's rather severe reaction to it.


HeWhoSwims hasn't posted a lot but I don't feel like they are trying to hide anything either.

I feel like Athena is accurate in in her remarks about texcat. I also agree with her analysis of PP in .

I like how Klick is asking a lot of questions instead of just accusing everyone. Town read on him for me.

Something feels really off about moz in . I find it strange how he's going to call out Klick for doing something that max did earlier that everyone found suspicious. Seems like a redundant, ez callout that's bound to get people riled up, right?

I feel like Bell is participating on a good level with Klick and Beef.


Ok so now for Flub and PP.
Flub: I'm not a fan of how Flub is trying to control the game. It could just be his playstyle but he seems very intent on guiding the direction of the game. His comment on Bell comes off as very manipulative to me. In general it feels like he's going way out of his way to prove that he too is a good town boi, and is very angry at all these scummy lads in his town. And if you're town of course you need to side with him too right?

PP: I don't like how he's reacted to everything so far, at all. He seems really defensive based on his interactions with Thor, Athena, and myself. I feel like Athena's analysis of him is solid. He seems very upset about the timing thing, which I personally think isn't a valid argument. However if you're guilty and someone catches you with a jank argument, that's upsetting right? It's frustrating to be caught doing something that really can't even be pinned down as suspicious. I just don't like that whole exchange. I don't like his responses to anything. I don't like how he hasn't done much else but defend himself.

VOTE: PenguinPower
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Post Post #151 (isolation #13) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:27 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 149, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 147, Bellaphant wrote:Yeah, that is what I meant and was super helpful.

IF flub -doesn't- wanna lynch me, what does he think town is getting out of a wagon... I have some ideas but I'd rather flub talked to me.
The idea was that you had a weak entrance that scum could have hopped on to counterwagon maxous. It would have made for a good talking point in addition to Thors push on penguin
I'm not sure I follow. Are you now saying that post was in an effort to see if anyone would fall for the bait?
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Post Post #152 (isolation #14) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:30 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Klick: I'd like to hear more about your reads. I see you asking people for theirs but I'd like to hear what you think.
Thor: Do you have any opinions on people you haven't mentioned yet? I know you've been busy with PP and Flub but I'm interested in what else you have to say.
HeWhoSwims: What do you think of people like Flub? Has your opinion changed on Max?
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Post Post #158 (isolation #15) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:44 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Are you implying since there was no counterwagon on Bella, that makes here very plausibly scum?
I don't see how that's any more likely than the scum piling on Max.
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Post Post #160 (isolation #16) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:47 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Yeah no pressure, take your time.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:58 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 162, Thor665 wrote:
In post 148, Moneybags wrote:I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.
It's not a playstyle issue.

You opted to call me out.
You did not opt to call out anyone else.
I'm asking why and you're not answering yet.
I'm not sure what else I can say at this point. At the time of writing that post while I was replying to you I thought I would also point out beef's behavior in his post. You are correct, I did not specifically say to his face "beef, why have you done this". I left it as a comment in passing, similarly to how I left the original comment about you.
At this point it's just a debate on how I intended to write my post vs how I came across. I'm not really sure how I'm supposed to clarify this any more than I already have.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #18) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:05 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 164, HeWhoSwims wrote: @Moneybags why exactly do you think scum can't do a 180 but instead wants to change their mind subtly? Wouldn't that pretty much depend on the playstyle of the scum players...? The rest of is great though and I agree with most of it.
I feel like as a scum you're less likely to take risks, right? Pulling a 180 like that so early on isn't going to be something on your agenda. It draws attention to flip around like that. He's been giving some good contribution since as well so he's fairly town to me.
In post 175, Flubbernugget wrote: Maxous - good reaction to the pressure over their early Town reads. I can see them expecting that to be a moot point and moving on with the rest of the game, and didn't try to over explain their initial town leans.
I wanted to single this out because I very strongly agree with this. I think Max's reaction was very solid. I think they're town for the reasons cited above. I had the feeling when I first saw his reaction but I didn't really know how to put it into words. This articulates it well.
In post 182, texcat wrote: This looks like
blatant
obvious OMGUS. When you said that you didn't understand Bella and Klick's town read of me, it was OK, but when I say something about it, suddenly it's shading? And what about Klick, he echoed Bella, but you say that he's "making good observations." Seems a little off.

You weren't pushing anyone and your vote was not on anyone until I voted you. Suddenly then you produced a list of townreads and then decide to vote me. Stinks like pond scum. I think you are scum looking for an easy place to park your vote, and you found it when I voted you.
Ok so I don't know about it even being slight OMGUS. However looking at Flub's behavior, I do feel like you have described it accurately. I also feel like toned it down a lot after I called him out for attempting to domineer the game. I'd also like to note that HeWhoSwims made a pass at Flub's 1 liner posts in , and it was after this he started contributing more. His behavior feels entirely too self conscious.

I am personally good with either a PP or Flub lynch today. PP has been awol for nearly 2 days now so idk what's going on there. I'd like to hear more from him when he has the time.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #19) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:30 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 189, Beefster wrote:VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.
But why? We have several fairly good leads right now.
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Post Post #195 (isolation #20) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:04 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 194, Thor665 wrote:
In post 162, Thor665 wrote:
In post 148, Moneybags wrote:I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.
It's not a playstyle issue.

You opted to call me out.
You did not opt to call out anyone else.
I'm asking why and you're not answering yet.
@Moneybags - 5th verse, same as the first.
In post 169, Flubbernugget wrote:Thor, what changed from
Nothing.
What do you think changed?

I like the idea of a Flub v. Tex wagon adventure.
Bella is now an acceptable lynch to me also.
Beefster is wasting time.
Errant is playing right near the very edge of strategic lurking and should knock that crud off.

VOTE: Flubbernugget
I replied to that post in .

EP said they have been sick. Even still they've contributed more than Tex and PP.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #21) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:52 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 202, mozamis wrote:
In post 200, mozamis wrote:
In post 55, mozamis wrote:moz, penguin, thor town. P.O.E ahoy!
moz,penguin,thor, beef town
moz,penguin,thor,beef,cult,max= town.

s
o scum in Klick, Hewho,Errant,Flubber,Bella, Tex,Moneybags

3scum in 7, not a bad lynch pool for day 1.
Before people go mental, these are PROVISIoney
ONAL DAY 1 reads. I like to be captain obvious, get a sensible lynch pool going for day 1.
I AM NOT SAYING THAT TOWN POOL are confirmed. It just helps me focus.
But yeah, we should defintely be looking at those 7
I'd like to know why you, or anyone else who agree, thinks PP is town. I can see someone not thinking he's scum. I can why someone wouldn't be ready to come to that conclusion. I can't see how someone could think he's confirmed town simply based on "timing argument is bad." Just because the argument is null doesn't confirm or exempt PP from being town. It's his reaction that counts.
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Post Post #209 (isolation #22) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:53 am

Post by Moneybags »

Addendum: I realize your list is not confirmed town, and I shouldn't have used the sentence " I can't see how someone could think he's confirmed town..." as that leads to confusion. It should more accurately read " I can't see how someone gets a town vibe from him simply because he was on the receiving end of a null argument".
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Post Post #216 (isolation #23) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:08 am

Post by Moneybags »

That's really strange considering some of the decent evidence to be had against him.
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Post Post #240 (isolation #24) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:13 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 219, Thor665 wrote:
In post 195, Moneybags wrote:I replied to that post in .
To clarify my issue - it's the timing for me.
You attacked me in a sideline way.
When asked you stepped back to try to call it a neutral opinion (ignoring that your initial comment was straight up attack) and also then tossed out other thoughts that you didn't opt to share until called on it and then claimed those thoughts were actually similar/identical to your initial call out even though you didn't initially state them at that time.

You're scummy to me now.
If you get a better answer to that issue feel free to toss it out.
In post 195, Moneybags wrote:EP said they have been sick. Even still they've contributed more than Tex and PP.
Are you calling that scummy?
Are you saying you think EP needs votes?
You're sidelining again.
I really just feel like you're projecting your interpretation of what I was meaning with my beefster remark vs my remark on you. Honestly if I had any way more clear or more "acceptible" to put it I would. Again I'm telling you how I was trying come across and again you're telling me thats now how you saw it. And that's fine, I accept that it didn't come across as I intended. However you refusing to accept my answer does not change anything. I don't have any other answers for you, feel free to interpret it as you wish.

I was actually trying to vouch for EP. I don't think EP needs votes for being sick and attempting to catch up on the game.



Moreso in general, I'd like to clarify that I don't think Tex is scum. I was using them as a reference in that post vs EP. While I don't agree with everything that Tex has said I do think their town. Hearing other people say that they are usually quiet affirms that the quietness isn't a scumtell.

Seeing moz post more makes me feel like they are genuine. Although I have to say I really don't agree with a lot of what they are saying. I feel like Beef continuing to make more radical game play decisions is more of a towntell. I can see he was clearly trying to generate discussion but it was entirely unnecessary. The only alternative I can think of is that he is perhaps trying to detract from a flub lynch by generating controversy.

Also @moz, if PP is town due to him defending himself head on, what does that make flub? He's had a few accusations come out against him and unless I totally missed it I haven't seen him do anything other than adjust his playstile when he was accused of things. For example I mentioned it felt like he was trying to manipulate the game and suddenly he's gone and toned things down a bit.

I'd like to go back and comment around Tex's claim that Flub's vote on her was OMGUS. While I feel like that's a bit of an exaggeration, I find it really interesting that he decided to double down after that in . Him picking tex as a target is really interesting to me because her playstyle makes her, to quote myself, low hanging fruit. And to be more precise this time, I think Flub is going for the low hanging fruit, Texcat. And to top it off, as HeWhoSwims points out in , it's a really weak argument he has to begin with. It really does feel like OMGUS. You have an easy prey that other people could possibly read as scum, that just happens to be voting for you. It looks really bad to me. I'd like to hear what other people think about this.
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Post Post #241 (isolation #25) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:23 am

Post by Moneybags »

Ok so after reading HeWhoSwims take on Beef I thought I'd look at his posts in a new light. Keep in mind this is in context with the other two players I currently find the scummiest.
In post 42, Beefster wrote:VOTE: thor

Something smells fishy about this interaction and I don't think it's PenguinPower.
-Siding with PP over Thor
In post 88, Beefster wrote:
In post 77, Flubbernugget wrote:VOTE: maxous

Town leans pls
This looks a bit opportunistic to me.
In post 102, Beefster wrote:
In post 98, Flubbernugget wrote:Bella votes are pro town atm
Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber

Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.
-Busing Flub?
In post 115, Beefster wrote:
In post 103, Thor665 wrote:
In post 87, Beefster wrote:You're case is built around Penguin's status as a queue moderator. I don't think that's very sportsmanlike and reeks of typical garbage reasons used by scum.
My case has literally nothing to do with his status as queue moderator.
His defense has everything to do with it.
So how is my case built around it exactly?
Turns out I misread. You're absolutely right.

That changes a lot, actually. It basically flips my reads on Thor and PP.

This Flubber v Thor argument makes me more comfortable with my vote.
-180 on pengiun, doesn't want to buss both teammates at once?
In post 189, Beefster wrote:VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.
-Notice he does this right as Flub takes heat for voting Tex. It's soon after where I say "I am personally good with either a PP or Flub lynch today."
In post 210, Beefster wrote:
In post 192, Moneybags wrote:
In post 189, Beefster wrote:VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.
But why? We have several fairly good leads right now.
The flubber wagon felt stale at the time, but it seems to be picking up momentum. She's been pinging my scumdar. She feels very methodical/mechanical in her posts.

VOTE: Flubber

I am still suspicious of COA.
He does indeed change his mind after it doesn't pan out. But it did distract people, like moz.


Not sure if any of this means anything but here it is.
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Post Post #242 (isolation #26) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:25 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 184, Moneybags wrote:Ok so I don't know about it even being slight OMGUS. However looking at Flub's behavior, I do feel like you have described it accurately. I also feel like toned it down a lot after I called him out for attempting to domineer the game. I'd also like to note that HeWhoSwims made a pass at Flub's 1 liner posts in , and it was after this he started contributing more. His behavior feels entirely too self conscious.
When I was writing I felt like there was another bit of evidence in Flub changing his behavior after a callout (besides mine). It was HeWhoSwims', detailed here.
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Post Post #244 (isolation #27) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:22 am

Post by Moneybags »

I just thought it strange he didn't go into detail on you when you've done this, and have really flown under the radar about it (in particular).
Also really? Instead of defending yourself you're going to attack me? That's an interesting approach.
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Post Post #254 (isolation #28) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:01 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 253, Thor665 wrote: I'd love for either or both of you to describe to me where and how Beef changed his mind exactly.
He clearly changed his vote.
He never indicated in any way I can spot that he changed his mind.
Clarify?
I was echoing moz's terminology to describe how Beef went from "time to vote someone else" to "that didn't pan out, back to flubber". He said he's still suspicious of COA. At least for me, using that phrase was in reference to his vote change. I don't know if moz actually thinks it's deeper than that.


No comments on any of the points brought up against Flub?
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Post Post #256 (isolation #29) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:08 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 252, Errantparabola wrote:
Moneybags:
In post 150, Moneybags wrote:I feel like scum would be more focused on "how can I subtlety change my mind on this" rather than just an outright 180.
I'm not saying you're wrong statistically but I'm also going to say that scum is capable of being a lot (to the point where an observation like this is useless to me) more unpredictable in this regard than you think. Especially when they don't think about this kind of stuff.
At this point I'd have to say I agree. Early on it was enough for me to go on but now there may be enough evidence for me to think otherwise.

I didn't realize there was still a push for max. PP has had to step out for a bit and Bella has not been offering a lot of insight either. You've actually made the most valid case against him so far.
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Post Post #265 (isolation #30) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:37 pm

Post by Moneybags »

My concerns stem from it being a strange thing to see right after flub starts taking heat. Which only matters in the context of both Beef and Flub being scum. If one or neither of them are scum then it's probably nothing. That whole post of beef quotes from me is mainly in context of his interactions with people that are suspect to me.
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Post Post #285 (isolation #31) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:11 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 284, Maxous wrote:
In post 219, Thor665 wrote:
In post 213, Maxous wrote:uhhhhhhh
this is a poor vote
why exactly is he voting flubber?
Why is it a poor vote?

Also, if you dislike my vote, why are you totally fine with Beefster's 210?
the highlighted quote answers the question.
i don't see a concise, clarified reason for the vote. It's jumbled up into wall posts that people have to struggle to figure out.
Didn't you have a problem with HeWhoSwims for skimming and not reading?
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Post Post #288 (isolation #32) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:19 am

Post by Moneybags »

Ah I better see what you are saying. I misunderstood, apologies.

Do you have any remarks on what I have said about Flub? It should be able to be gathered from my ISO. No one else has really had anything to say about it. I'd appreciate another opinion.
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Post Post #292 (isolation #33) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:38 am

Post by Moneybags »

Mmm. I guess that's an equally valid interpretation. I think between this and reading too much into Beef I need to step back and maybe re-read some stuff.
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Post Post #319 (isolation #34) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:17 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 312, Errantparabola wrote:
In post 266, CultOfAthena wrote:Hm, I feel like my posts are getting ignored here. I also didn't get really get any responses that I'm satisfied with from my questions. Is it my posting style?
I feel like this question comes from scum a lot under pressure. Responds to a single one-off vote from Beefster with a flurry of posts, questions about why she's being ignored, classic "it's not me, it's my playstyle" line... idk, seems like a disproportionate reaction.

VOTE: CultOfAthena


--

Just a thoughts dump:

Right now I'm in a place where I have a small pool of people who I think are probably possibly town and a bunch more people who I would just be okay voting.
Coming from just sharing that sentiment, I don't think Athena feeling ignored was under pressure at all, let alone scummy. She had what, one out of the blue vote and she's "under pressure"? Iirc no one but beef had said anything to her. I can't see how this quote can be considered under pressure when the simplier and more likely scenairo is that it's out of frustration.

This remark from you paired with the other paragraph I left included does not sit well with me at all.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #35) » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:46 am

Post by Moneybags »

So I'd like to start by saying my stance on Flub is now a very strong null read. He's done a lot of things to make me suspicious but I'm no longer confident in saying he's scum. He made a post saying something like "the change in my gameplay was literally me no longer arguing with thor". I agree that could easily explain what I was seeing. I am, however, still not a fan of his reactions to things. For example him telling thor that there is no case against him in just rubs me the wrong way. I feel like the post he made explaining the change I and others picked up on is fair. I do still have problems with other things of his. For now I'm going to remain on the fence cause I felt like I've been reading too much into his posts in general.

I'm going to UNVOTE: Transcend. I was going to leave my vote on PP until he came back and gave me a reason to remove it. I'm changing my stance on him to null until we can get more solid information. He's either town trying to make up for PP's failure to play the role, or scum trying to dig out of his current situation. Either explication is currently valid.

I do want to address Klick. I noticed some things from him early on that I decided to keep quiet on so he would play unaffected. Other people have since brought it up so now that it's out in the open I want to bring up some things I didn't see mentioned.

The Bella Exchange:
In post 136, Klick wrote:Which way is the gut read on texcat, and what posts does it come from? Because I have the same thing.
In post 138, Klick wrote:Yeah, I had a weird gut townread on texcat as well reading earlier. Something about the post he made on page 3 seemed like... minimal content, but in a genuine way? idk.
I think we all can agree this is strange. I know he explained this in one of his recent posts as him being insecure. However what's strange to me is that he would ask this after voting her in . Keep in mind this was when PP and Max were the top wagons. Shortly after in Flub made his "bella votes are town votes" remark. In retrospect, I feel like he actually might have been on to something here.

The Moneybags Exchange:
In post 159, Klick wrote:On my phone. Just posting to say I really, really like your post 150 Moneybags. Particularly the Beefster bit - that was a nice catch, and I think I'm going to townread him now as well. I agree with not quite seeing Maxous-scum at this point in time, and his wagon is very peculiar/interesting to me. Going to look into the votes on him in detail when I get back on my laptop.
In context of a Beef-scum scenario, this is
really
interesting. I also townread Klick in my post . This in light of the bella exchange feels like straight up buddying with me. Also it gave him a reason to say Beef is for sure town, which he seems really enthusiastic about.

Beefster is Town (thanks Moneybags), also Flubber might be scum but I'm not committing:
In post 167, Klick wrote:Alright, reads.
mozamis - slight Town-lean for reasons I've already discussed.
Beefster - Town-lean based on Moneybags' point; I can't discern his alignment beyond that, but the argument that he wouldn't make such a drastic change in reads just like that is one I can get behind.
Thor - Thor

Moneybags - I guess a Town lean? Essentially I'm seeing a bunch of pro-Town activity from you - what you're doing is advancing the Town agenda - but I can't say that's totally alignment-indicative just yet. But I want you to be town. Your reads make sense from a town perspective and you're a good mind to be able to rely on in this team. I think for convenience's sake I'm going to assume you're Town for a little while, and reevaluate at a later point. More than likely I'm right and we'll start getting somewhere by cooperating.

texcat - I felt good about his second post as I discussed before. It would really help if he posts more so I can further cement that read if he's town. Null-leaning-town.

Bella - I didn't like her second post, but my vote on her has been more to encourage her to get in here and get involved than anything. I was really hoping once she got active she would show me she was town really quickly (I know Bella very well personally, we joined this to play together). That didn't quite happen. I can't shake an annoying gut scum read of her, but I also can't justify it beyond that second post.

Flubbernugget - I want to say Scum, but I'm not going to, mostly because I think the things I'm seeing as scummy are probably playstyle-related. Namely, he's been primarily focused on exactly two subjects all game; the never-ending discussion of Thor's activity read on Penguin, and the whole "votes on Bella are pro-town" thing (and he keeps being baited into that discussion). Due to his reactive/responsive posting style, I don't think it's really indicative of alignment, but at the same time I really want to hear about more things than that from him. Especially since he mentioned Penguin would be scum if all he could do was argue with Thor, which is all Flubber is really doing at this point. Null for the time being, but I'd like to fix that.
Points on Beef and myself have been commented on already. I think his non-stance on flubber is interesting.

Official Reads (Finally, on page 15):
In post 351, Klick wrote:
TOWN


Beefster:
This is my strongest read. I really like Beef's 115 which is where my townread of him started. There's inconsistency in his reads and odd flops of his vote, in ways that I think he'd be more careful about as scum. Most recently, I like the way he's criticizing mozamis in his last post for voting CoA, joining his own wagon, because it doesn't line up with moz's reads. He just looks really genuine to me, thus he's my strongest townread.

LEANING TOWN


Flubbernugget:
As I said in my last post, the wagon on him currently makes no sense to me. At first I was put off by his abrasive posting style, but everything game-related he's posted lines up with my own thoughts on the game really well. I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget. Call it gut, I guess, and a little bit of texcat looking super bad on his wagon.

Bellaphant:
This is a very slight read. I'm wary of Bella's ability to come across as genuine and town-looking. But one thing does stand out to me a little:
In post 139, Bellaphant wrote:I liked the vote as well: it seemed to want to move on from the thor/pp thing which people (now flubber) are stil dragging, and felt like a gut reaction to max's weird 'I have SEKRIT' townreads. tex is prolly the player i've got most experience of here as well.
In post 140, Bellaphant wrote:Actually

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Maxous
I don't feel like scum-Bella gives the thread a second thought after her first post. I feel like scum-Bella is more calculated than that, sure of what she wants to do before she posts, while town-Bella is more impulsive like this.
It's not much, but enough to raise her from the null pile.

LEANING SCUM


Maxous:
I had a gut town read on him at one point, but reading through again I'm missing it and really can't find anything that indicates Maxous-town. Everything he's giving feels very borderline and easily-faked. The problem with that is you never know if it's lazy town, lazy scum, or under-the-radar scum. 2/3 of those are scum, so I'm going to put Maxous in the leaning scum pile. ;)

Transcend:
Penguin's contribution to this game was practically nothing. I didn't like his start, and he wasn't around long enough to improve. Transcend's posts so far have been regurgitated reads with no explanation. I'd be completely fine with lynching this.

texcat:
I had a weak gut townread on texcat earlier. It was based on Post 58 seeming like genuine opinions. It was small, and I now feel like it is something tex would do as either alignment based on her posting style.
But the Flubbernugget vote is really, really bad. She gave no real indication she had any sort of read on Flubbernugget before the vote. Her vote was based on hypocrisy, not really alignment-indicative in any sense. But she's gung-ho about it, and sets Flub into what seems to me like a manipulated lose-lose scenario. I don't believe texcat actually has the opinion on Flub she claims to have. It's too flashy, too overconfident.


VOTE: texcat
Town Reads: Not surprising, except that he has nothing to say on anything against Beef, and is strongly still holding him up as town.
Leaning Town: Making Flubber and Bella lean town is interesting to me. It doesn't commit to pinning Flub as town but says "I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget." I left Bella in for context of the earlier exchange.
Scum Reads:
Way to play it safe.
Somehow people are still holding on to Max-Scum. I personally don't see it but ok. Still holding on to PP Scum? Ok yeah I really can't see that atm. Riding the PP train feels a bit blatant considering we don't currently have a lot to go off of from Transcend.

Tex?!
Are you sure? The one, safe bet for a scumread. "But they've been lurking!" C'mon man. This feels so strongly like it's the one wagon you could get away with shifting to. It feels dirty and I don't like it at all.

VOTE: Klick
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Post Post #359 (isolation #36) » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:58 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 341, Beefster wrote:
In post 337, mozamis wrote:VOTE: cult
Where the hell did this come from?
That's actually a good question, please explain.

As a side note I want to mention I think the case on Athena is
total garbage.
It's incredibly flimsy. Athena's been a solid poster as well. It feels like since no one really came out and townread her it made her a very good target (helpful + not favored by town).
In post 338, CultOfAthena wrote: I think Beefster is scum. His original vote on me only came after I called him out for his questioning being superficial, and since then it seems like he's had to come up with reasons to keep justifying his vote on me. Look at his response to mozamis:
In post 249, Beefster wrote:Pfft. I had my reasons.
I just didn't feel like expressing them at the time
. In my big reads post, I had her as null. (she was initially town before I posted my reads) I described her as "good questions. not much else" and
after a couple more of her posts
, it just solidified that her posts have been methodical and perhaps a little deceptive or misdirecting. I don't know if I can point to any particular post or line.

I haven't really been paying super close attention. I was juggling 2 other games with AGDQ.
I've highlighted what likely isn't true. First, the idea that Beefster had a slight scumlean on me that he "just didn't feel like mentioning" is doubtful, not just on face value but also on the fact that his reads list explicitly had a section for "scumleans" and one of them was explitly marked "slight" – if I was one of those slight scumleans before, why didn't he mention me there? Next, he says that "a couple more of my posts" solidified his scumlean on me, despite the fact that I only made one post inbetween his readslist and his vote.

Another thing I'd like to note is that I think I was right on the mark on Beefster "hedging" his read on me, given that he only resumed his push after
multiple
people declared that they didn't want a beefster wagon in response to his vote on me.
I feel like this is very solid. I feel like out of Beefster and Athena, Beef is much more likely to be scum. If Athena was scum that would make this, what, omgus? This is way more solid than Beefster's case on Athena.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #37) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:49 am

Post by Moneybags »

Ok so first off, @Klick:

Fantastic response. What I had been seeing from you had me worried but I was very much on the fence. I feel your reply was very solid and it's cleared me of any doubts. That said, UNVOTE: Klick.

Second:

Wow lets pump the breaks yeah. We have
zero reason to assuming RC is being truthful
. Remember scum picked the PRs. Scum-RC would know if there was no tracker and would be able to claim it un-cc'd.

I don't think Transcend pulling a cc stunt makes him guaranteed scum. There's town enough reasons to cc a PR. Especially when they do something like hardclaim D1.

I don't like Transcend appearing to flail around on page 19. It looks really bad to me. If I were to vote him it would be based on his performance here and not the sole fact that he cc'd.

RC is blatantly unhelpful by assuming their contributions are guaranteed to be helpful and that anyone who pushes them is automatically scum. It's forcing down everyone's throat that they are obviously such a hardcore town member that there's absolutely no possibility they are scum. It's like Thor on steroids.
However RC's seemingly self awareness of being miss lynched as town leads me to believe they are telling the truth. Unless that's part of the act. Either way we'll find out tomorrow, based on whether he is still in the game.

I realize each of these points seem to be contradictory. My main objective was to provide some alternate perspectives. However, allow me to elaborate:

- We can't solely judge Transcend as scum based off of the CC. We can however take into account PP's poor performance early game combined with him flailing about on Page 19.

- RC can't be automatically trusted cause they are un-cc'd. I think their play stile is outright detrimental to the town. However as they are self aware of this I'm willing to believe them until day 2.

----------------------------------

I want to wrap this up with an abbreviated, updated read list:

Town:

HWS: Hasn't given me any reasons to assume they are scum, they've been mostly helpful so far.
Klick: Very solid response in post , has me convinced.
CoA: Has been playing the game and has had very town reactions to everything so far.

Town Lean:

Thor: His posts more reccently feel more genuine, I'm willing to accept he is most likely town.
EP: Is at least trying to solve the game despite me disagreeing with them about CoA.
RC: Town until day 2.


Null:

Flub: Leaving him here until we can get more to go off of.
Max: Moved here due to a general lack of contribution. At least it feels that way, compared to a lot of the more active posters.
Tex: The one thing moz has said that I really agree with is in post . Her few posts left me feeling like she is trying but it's getting to be really hard to continue to see them as town.
Moz: I have no idea how to read moz. I feel like that may be a goal of his. His behavior is erratic and I very often find myself disagreeing with him. I'm not convinced that makes him scum as of right now, but I'm not going to pin him as town either.


Scum Lean:

Beef: He's been all over the place and I don't feel like he's been particularly helpful. Any time something interesting happens he goes off on his own tangent. It feels very off to me.
Transcend/PP: I still agree with CoA about PP in early game. I'm not a fan of the events that have transpired but I'm not sold just yet.
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Post Post #502 (isolation #38) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:05 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 501, Errantparabola wrote:
In post 489, Moneybags wrote:Fantastic response. What I had been seeing from you had me worried but I was very much on the fence. I feel your reply was very solid and it's cleared me of any doubts.
I know that I've been consistently suspicious of Moneybags for reasons that are almost entirely gut and probably confbias and I've been annoying about them but this makes me feel very bad.

I doubt there is one scum in Transcend/RC, but that's just a gut thing, I guess we'll see.
That's perfectly fair. I wanted to try something other than "throw out accusations and see what people have to say about them". I think it's good you picked up on that as it shows you're actually paying attention. I'm also glad you've come around on CoA.

If there's no scum out of Transcend/RC, do you think their may be scum surrounding the situation at all? If so, who?
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Post Post #561 (isolation #39) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:31 am

Post by Moneybags »

I believe Transcend. His and PP's behaviour can also be explained by them being PR.
I feel better about RC, I probably just had a bad first impression.
Max is town.
Mox is town but off his rocker.

VOTE: Beefster
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Post Post #569 (isolation #40) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:45 am

Post by Moneybags »

If Moz is scum he's a mastermind.
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Post Post #576 (isolation #41) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:58 am

Post by Moneybags »

I'd like to hear more about your scum read on me, RC. A few other players have mentioned stuff but not a lot of specifics. Im aware that I'm not paticularly good at the game but I'd like to get some details.
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Post Post #589 (isolation #42) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:14 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 586, Maxous wrote:
Beefster is someone I change my mind about frequently. I'd lean town atm. He did say it's his first game in ages or whatever so that could explain some of the awkwardness
That was me. Unless he said it too.
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Post Post #591 (isolation #43) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:15 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Nvm he did in his 2nd post.
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Post Post #596 (isolation #44) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:31 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Max pls.
I literally just committed to giving you a town read.
You can't do this to me
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Post Post #652 (isolation #45) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:27 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 648, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 569, Moneybags wrote:If Moz is scum he's a mastermind.
Can you elaborate on this?
It's really hard to put into words without it sounding like I'm a jerk. I'm currently writing off moz as "he can't possibly not be town because there's no way scum would ever want to come off the way he is coming off". If his intention is to make me feel that way then he's clearly on another playing field, at least from where I'm standing.
I think RC said they disagreed and said it would be easy to fake. To which I concur, however that would mean moz is currently doing terrible as scum. And judging by his join date I find that less likely.
As a disclaimer I realize I'm probably reading way more into this than I should be. I just personally really think he's incredibly... "raw" as town. So raw it couldn't be faked without a lot of intentional, tactile planning.
Flubbernugget wrote:Beefster's reevaluation doesn't look natural

Moneybags has these really strange tone inconsistencies where he goes from 100% literal and calm to awkward tinges of sarcasm and I'm suspicious of it, but can't pin a motivation to it atm.
Cause I went in with "hey now that I'm older maybe I'd be better at playing mafia" to the current "Nope I still have no idea what I'm doing."
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Post Post #653 (isolation #46) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:29 am

Post by Moneybags »

Beef is at (L-1)
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Post Post #667 (isolation #47) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:08 am

Post by Moneybags »

RadiantCowbells wrote:VOTE: ErrantParabola

I think this is probably the best lynch right now.
I'm not sure I buy Beef's gambit. It feels like a hail mary to me. It's equally possible he could be telling the truth and is really just going to go along with it. In which case yes I agree it would be useless to confirm him as town. Which means if he's not scum then lynching him would indeed be a complete waste of time.
Ok so I see your point. But why EP? I feel like we could do better than EP.
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Post Post #668 (isolation #48) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:09 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 667, Moneybags wrote:
RadiantCowbells wrote:VOTE: ErrantParabola

I think this is probably the best lynch right now.
I'm not sure I buy Beef's gambit. It feels like a hail mary to me. It's equally possible he could be telling the truth and is really just going to go along with it. In which case yes I agree it would be useless to confirm him as town. Which means if he's not scum then lynching him would indeed be a complete waste of time.
Ok so I see your point. But why EP? I feel like we could do better than EP.
I say this not having an alternative I could probably sell you on. I just don't find EP particularly scummy?
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Post Post #673 (isolation #49) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:49 am

Post by Moneybags »

But why are we not continuing on Beef? Why switch to EP? I don't see why you think there is a difference. I don't see why you and Trans would just back off Beef at the last second. I think we should flip Beef and see how it goes instead of trying to switch wagons at the last second.
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Post Post #678 (isolation #50) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:33 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 674, RadiantCowbells wrote:What do you mean there's no difference? They don't have the same role PM.

Is it possible that one could be scum and another could be town and by switching off the town we could end up lynching scum?
What's that first line supposed to mean? You say that like you know one is scum and the other isnt? In which case why are you so sure EP is scum all of a sudden? And now Tex? Why everyone but Beef now?
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Post Post #682 (isolation #51) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:02 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I'm listening
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Post Post #697 (isolation #52) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I just think it's really strange to see both RC and trans 180 off beef at the last second. I think his yes vote me routine may be a hail Mary. At this point I'm just a raving conspiracy theorist and I want to flip beef yo get some kind of definitive answer.
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Post Post #699 (isolation #53) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:43 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I don't think we'll ever see 2 night kills. We'll never be sure.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #54) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:09 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 707, Thor665 wrote:
In post 699, Moneybags wrote:I don't think we'll ever see 2 night kills. We'll never be sure.
I'm talking about Flubber, not Transcend.
Sorry, that was meant as a follow up to the other post I had just made. Your's got sandwitched in between.

I want to also say that I'd be willing to fold and go with a flub lynch because I feel like that's the only other one that will get us answers. EP or tex won't give us anything. They're lurkers, they have minimal interactions with everyone else. We won't get a lot if they're scum and even less if they're town.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #55) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:15 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 709, Thor665 wrote:I actually think denigrating a lurker flip is anti-town. They're really actually just as good as the so-called "info flips" people tout.
That said, vote Flubber, I like that thought.
How so? If EP flips town and we have 1 NK, where does that leave us?
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Post Post #722 (isolation #56) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Moneybags »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #725 (isolation #57) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:31 pm

Post by Moneybags »

1. RC
2. Moneybags
3. Trans
4. Moz
5. CoA
6. Flub
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Post Post #731 (isolation #58) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:40 pm

Post by Moneybags »

CoA had valid reasoning to vote beef if you look at their post. Flub came back, got caught up, and proceeded to join the biggest wagon.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #59) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:53 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Sorry, I actually meant to respond to you. I see what you mean about the lynches, I agree with you.
I'm not sure if I agree with that exact argument about flub. I do think its time I get off the fence though, and I'm not sold on any of the other options. Scum being in the beef wagon makes a lot of sense vs anything else I've come up with.

Transcend if you go back and read coa's post where they voted you'll see they actually put effort in and had a solid reason to vote beef. If it's anyone in the wagon it's probably flub.

VOTE: Flubbernugget
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Post Post #772 (isolation #60) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 759, mozamis wrote:
In post 737, Moneybags wrote:Sorry, I actually meant to respond to you. I see what you mean about the lynches, I agree with you.
I'm not sure if I agree with that exact argument about flub. I do think its time I get off the fence though, and I'm not sold on any of the other options. Scum being in the beef wagon makes a lot of sense vs anything else I've come up with.

Transcend if you go back and read coa's post where they voted you'll see they actually put effort in and had a solid reason to vote beef. If it's anyone in the wagon it's probably flub.

VOTE: Flubbernugget
retract my moneybags townread.
this post seems really buddying and opportunisitc - flubber is lynch bait i reckon.
for the record i'm still happy with beef but money could well be scum
VOTE: moneybags
I don't see how you can think flubber is lynch bait when between me and thor he's had pushes on him all game. I also fail to see how me voting for the only other scum read I've had all game outside of Transcend is opportunistic.
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Post Post #776 (isolation #61) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:37 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 740, Transcend wrote:also money you act like scum can't come up with good reasons to vote someone at all

rofl
Before you subbed in I suspected flubber more strongly than anyone else. I've been back and forth on him a few times but I don't really see anyone else we can lynch right now.
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Post Post #782 (isolation #62) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:42 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I still really don't think moz is scum. Why would he start a new wagon when there's 2-3 ongoing?
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Post Post #784 (isolation #63) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Mmm you're not wrong there. I don't see EP as scum either though. How do you see EP and Flubber as connected?
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Post Post #802 (isolation #64) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:08 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 793, RadiantCowbells wrote:why is EP the one who I think you're scum with and yet the only person you didn't go on to address?
In post 796, RadiantCowbells wrote:Why are you townreading Flubber too?
Don't you think he would have been more careful about his read list considering you literally just called him out on it? He probably literally forgot to put EP on there due to EP's lesser activity. I'm also not aware of any connections to these three outside of the offhand moz stuff you mentioned. I'm really not seeing this one, sorry.
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Post Post #803 (isolation #65) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:09 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Also the fos was from about 600 posts ago =/
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Post Post #856 (isolation #66) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:03 am

Post by Moneybags »

I fail to see how not voting until the day is drawing to an end is scum. Also moz why are you trying to get a wagon started on everyone but flubber? I can't deny it's fishy.
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Post Post #858 (isolation #67) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:13 am

Post by Moneybags »

Him and tex are clasified as lynchbait (imo) because their (apparently) normal playstyle is conceived as scummy. If tex naturally doesn't post a lot then they are an easy target for scum to push a lynch on.
Errant hasn't been posting a lot either. I know they had a stint of "CoA is scum" then backed off after CoA adequately defended herself. Apparently people think Errant is echoing other people? But I remember some solid posts from them vs CoA, despite thinking they were wrong. I think the push on them feels unjustified when we have other worse stuff going on. But it's really easy to take one of the quietest players and just say "oh hey look at this quiet guy, they're scum". If they haven't done much else than be quiet that doesn't make them automatically scum. That does however make them lynchbait. And I fail to see anything from EP that comes off as incredibly scummy so to me they fall in the lynchbait category.
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Post Post #859 (isolation #68) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:14 am

Post by Moneybags »

Sorry, that's a really chunky block of text. I should have previewed first.
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Post Post #880 (isolation #69) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:17 pm

Post by Moneybags »

In post 879, mozamis wrote:i'm not "discredting you", i'm just tyrin gto see why, as town, you would do what you would do/
You have an awesome PR as tracker, and you out yourself - and make sure you can never use your ability- with only one person scum reading you and no one voting you?!
It doesnt make sense. Your only defence seems to be "Moz is scum"?
Does him trying to explain his actions over multiple posts not count as defense?
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Post Post #915 (isolation #70) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:44 am

Post by Moneybags »

UNVOTE:

I want to get off Mr Bone's Wild Ride
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Post Post #916 (isolation #71) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:45 am

Post by Moneybags »

Trans I literally just explained this to moz yesterday when he said the same thing. Read the game pls :(
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Post Post #917 (isolation #72) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:47 am

Post by Moneybags »

No wait it was you. You said this when I voted flubber and I mentioned how before you placed in I made multiple wall posts about flub. I had made suspicions of beef as well. Am I supposed to be quoting those every time I vote?
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Post Post #918 (isolation #73) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:48 am

Post by Moneybags »

Tbh I have literally no idea who to vote now though so I can't even say I blame you. All my read have been crap though so unfortunately not much of value will be gained.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #74) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:07 am

Post by Moneybags »

I mean at this point it doesn't really matter. If I live long enough to be in a lylo situation whatever scum is left will be able to reference how I was on nearly ever major wagon. Not that it matters that they were people I already suspected, apparently. I was just trying to get a lynch in on someone I thought was scummy. But now you're very close to confirmed town, beef was apparently a dead end, and the guy I've been riding almost all game was the IC. It's easier to come to the conclusion that I've just been pushing a mislynch all game than to say I'm just really bad. Rip me man.

I don't see CoA. In retrospect the only thing I can figure is that by going at PP she was trying to get an easy target that was already under fire. She made a good point or two that me and I think HWS were sold on. She's making contributing posts just not a lot.
HWS is pretty new so I can see them being cautious just in as an unaffiliated player.
Max is just a more reserved towny.
Moz is moz
EP has contributed less than CoA but that could be largely from IRL stuff.
Thor doesn't always make the best cases but I can see he's trying to accomplish something. Him tunneling the IC all game doesn't look very good now that I think about it but that doesn't sell me on scum!Thor.
Klick is solidly town
I don't think I ever landed back on a new Beef opinion other than "not scum apparently"
Tex is lurking but I see town effort from them.
Then you (Trans) and RC are town.

So yeah. That leaves me with nothing to go on with the exception of maybe Thor. Unless we lynch a lurker. But if I'm part of that it absolutely makes me a liability in a lylo situation.
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Post Post #925 (isolation #75) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:53 am

Post by Moneybags »

Why would he claim IC if he isn't. The mod would just not confirm him and he'd be lynched for fakeclaiming IC.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #76) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:33 am

Post by Moneybags »

VT.
Later today I'll pour over the game in context of the confirmed town and see what I get. In context of flub being IC brings to mind stuff like Tex's out of place omgus claim.
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Post Post #932 (isolation #77) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:31 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 931, texcat wrote:Well, carp. That's a revolting development.
UNVOTE:

I would have cc'd long before now, if I were not VT.
Cc'd who exactly? Why would it have at all made sense to out as the 3rd pr, if that's what you meant?
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Post Post #944 (isolation #78) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:25 am

Post by Moneybags »

RC wasn't one of your main arguments on moz that they were not voting their teammate flubber? I'm not sure how well it holds up outside of that.
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Post Post #970 (isolation #79) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:58 am

Post by Moneybags »

Ok we basically have 72 hours left. I know what I'm about to go off and do isn't ideal cause right now it looks like it's between Beef and Moz. However as of right now I'm not really fan of either of those as lynches so I'm going to bring up another case. I'd like to state for the record that I am not in favor of a No Lynch. I don't particularly think Moz or Beef is scum
at this moment in time
, but RC and Flubber seem to think each is, respectively. If it comes down to it I may fold and vote with one of them.
If this happens and whoever we lynch flips town, I expect to be pretty high on the vig list. In preparation of my flip I'm making this post so hopefully I'll be able to have done at least one useful thing all game.

In order of the player list, excluding the 3 PRs and myself:

Spoiler: mozamis
I read Moz as
Leaning Town
. This really shouldn't come as a surprise, I've been saying it all game. He's been incredibly consistent in his behavior and voting patterns. It looks to me like he's just a raw town player. He avoided the flubber wagon cause he (correctly) read him as town. All game he's been voting outside of wagons and trying to do stuff independently. The only reason I have him as LT and not full Town is because this whole game I've been reading far to into everything. My main argument for moz is that surely no scum player would
want
to come off the way he's coming off. It's attracted the attention of a few people and he has a wagon building currently. But that could be me entirely over complicating it. Maybe he looks scummy sometimes cause he's just slipping up, and it's as simple as that.

Spoiler: Thor665
I read Thor as
Leaning Scum
. So first yes, this is a 180 from my last read of Thor. Originally, with minimal context of who Thor is I had him as Null. I think the idea is that he plays like this every game so you can't read him if he doesn't want you to. However in this game it
really
feels like he doesn't want you to. If you play aggressively that's fine, however I have a feeling he's aiming to create more chaos than instigate and apply pressure. If you read his exchange with me I still have no idea what he was trying to get at other than dig for some reason to accuse me. You could equally say he was trying to get me to crack and have a scum-like reaction. He was after flubber for most of the game. He drilled PP (now Transcend) hard early game due to a timing tell which was garbage. Some of his stuff makes sense and is fine. Some of it just doesn't. He's more Null than anything but I have him as Leaning Scum. Mainly because of him failing to do anything of benefit to the town due to being preoccupied with tunneling the IC all day.

Spoiler: HeWhoSwims
I read HWS as
Leaning Town
. Early game he stimulated conversation and made some posts of fair contribution. However once things got crazy they seemed to slide into the background (which could be nothing at all but I'm just pointing it out). I do like how they give more town reads than scum reads. Usually scum would try and be more accusing? He originally read beef as scum in post , but by post he had changed beef to a TL. This was before the beef wagon started, which he was never on. He did join the flubber wagon in post and mentions it's because that's where everyone else was going.
I'd like to see what beef flips before assigning HWS a more definite read.

Spoiler: Klick
I think that Klick is
Town
. His posting all game has been very genuine. He had some odd exchanges early on but I think that was just his personality/playstile. He asks questions and has clearly been stating his reads. As a bonus point he's had either a null or town read on Flubber all game. I grilled him a bit ago and his response in is very solid. Has had a longstanding scumread of Tex. I see him contributing regularly. He puts effort in his posts. He's town to me.

Spoiler: texcat
Ok so here we go. I think that Tex is
Scum
. All game I've been writing her off as a lurking player that scum will go for lynchbait. But again I've been overthinking everything. And if someone lurks all the time, well, a broken clock is right at least twice a day right? Eventually it'll work out in your favor, and you can just claim to always do this. Which she does, in post .

Post , where she insubstantially claims flub is OMGUS voting her, has always bothered me. After flubber replied I did agree, but even then I said that this post was just such a long shot. If you randomly vote someone and they vote you back, for that very reason (as well as from lurking), you can't just say it's OMGUS and call it a day. You're just using it to push a lynch on the person you're randomly voting.

Then what happens after that? I start pushing flub. Thor pushes flub. This is part of the reason I have Thor as leaning scum. Did he try and hammer home the push started by Tex so it's spread between them, and suspicion is alleviated? That's basically a conspiracy theory so I have no idea, but it's something to chew on. Especially if one of them flips red.
I'd also like to note Thor
has never once addressed Texcat this game.
And this is after siding with Tex v Flubber.

Anyways, back to Tex. After being accusing of lurking we see a few low effort posts. She asks some questions. Finally gives reads (for the first time all game) in post . Says Thor is town, which is funny cause a lot of other people say he's null. Still riding on scum!Flubber.

And so here's what I really find interesting. It's a little bit of a stretch but I think in context to the above it could be something of substance.
In post 935, texcat wrote:
In post 932, Moneybags wrote:
In post 931, texcat wrote:Well, carp. That's a revolting development.
UNVOTE:

I would have cc'd long before now, if I were not VT.
Cc'd who exactly? Why would it have at all made sense to out as the 3rd pr, if that's what you meant?
We almost certainly had an IC in the game. So if I had a PR, for example if I were a jailkeeper, I would have know that either Transcend or RC was lying about their role, and I would have claimed. I guess that's not exactly a cc.
The first posts of hers triggered me cause it feels really weird to me.
What do you mean you would have cc'd?
You say that like ccing was always an option for you.
But because you haven't, you're
obviously
just a VT. Why would that have ever made sense to out, if you were a PR?
The excuse you come up with doesn't cut it for me either. It feels like you made the original comment offhand and realized that as town you would not have had any reason at all to CC.
Why would you, theoretically, assume that we'd have an IC when you are the Jailkeeper? Why would that be a reason to out?
It wouldn't be. It'd be a reason to massclaim sure, but not for you to "cc". Even in your reply you make it sound like you know, or have always known the PRs for this game.

I feel like both these posts are just straight up scum slips. In isolation they might not hold any weight but I think in context of tex's gameplay it's the best lead I have.

Spoiler: Beefster
I read Beef as
Leaning Town
. I've spend the last half of this day just reading way to into his posts and the contexts. I still feel weird about his gambit-y posts. They don't feel genuine to me I guess but I invite you all to ignore that and make of it what you will. I think his voting patterns are most telling. He's never fallen in line with the majority opinion and has gone after his personal pushes and gut reads. He doesn't seem to be concered about where his vote is falling. Which I think is really ironic because that's also why I think moz is town as I said, yet beef thinks moz is scum. Go figure. I don't think lynching beef will get us anywhere because I'm not convinced there was scum on his wagon at all. Someone asked "if the beef wagon was all town, then what on earth were the scum doing?" They were on flubber. At least, one of them was. Anyways to round it out, after taking beef at face value I think he's more likely to be town. He's seems to wear his agenda on his sleeve so I don't feel like he has a lot to hide.

Spoiler: CultOfAthena
I think I'm going to mark CoA as
Leaning Town
. The one thing that's keeping me from making them solid town is that early on they sided with Thor against PP (Transcend). This is an interaction that might lead to something, or it could be nothing at all. That aside, they make good posts and they feel like they care as a VT. Her being frustrated that no one is listening to her posts feels really genuine. To put it in her own words, "why would I feel the need to insert myself as a "key player" when most people seemed content to just write me off as town and ignore the rest of my posts?" She has been bringing original stuff to the table the few times she has been posting this game.

Spoiler: Maxous
I think that Max is
Town
. His posting feels genuine enough. He stuck to his guns and didn't vote either Beef or Flub. I think him calling for a mass claim and questioning the (currently) uncc'd PRs is healthy. He hasn't given me a reason to think he's scummy all game.

Spoiler: Errantparabola
I read EP as
Null.
They currently have 11 posts, half as much as the other 2 lurkers (CoA/Tex). In terms of contribution there isn't much there, but I think their posts are good (as few of them as there are). They seem like they genuinely want to help but just don't have the time. In terms of contribution, all they have really done is make a push on CoA, which they backed off of once they got an adequate response. Due to their real life situations it seems like they are just busy, so I'm not going to put down a definite read here.


VOTE: Texcat

I implore you all to consider this. I feel like it's a significantly better option than anyone else currently on the table.

If I flip before tex,
please
start with her tomorrow.
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Post Post #982 (isolation #80) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:01 am

Post by Moneybags »

You think it's Tex/Thor/HeWho ?
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Post Post #985 (isolation #81) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:07 am

Post by Moneybags »

Kind of funny to see 3 people separately come up with Tex/Thor at the same time.
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Post Post #989 (isolation #82) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:11 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Would you consider tex (assuming you've read what I wrote in my post)?
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Post Post #990 (isolation #83) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:11 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I'd like to forward that question to moz as well.
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Post Post #998 (isolation #84) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:54 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I think that's fair. I also think you should consider voting tex so we can see how that plays out.
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Post Post #1011 (isolation #85) » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:50 pm

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Because it's much more likely you're saying that so you can slip onto another town wagon.
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #86) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:00 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 922, Transcend wrote:ur probably gonna need to hard push on someone or im ust gonna lynch u

ur not soundin town anymore either
You seem to have missed my post where I started a push on tex. RC is here, you're welcome to join us.
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Post Post #1032 (isolation #87) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:06 am

Post by Moneybags »

Tex has 3 votes right now, as does beef. A handful of other people have 1. We have 48 hours here, we don't have time to push a lynch on someone like CoA which will only get 3 people at best. I'd much rather lynch Tex before moz. I could go for a Thor lynch but we'd need 6 other people to agree with that out of thin air.
Apparently maf would rather force a NL than simply bandwangon on tex. Hmmmmm.
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Post Post #1034 (isolation #88) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Moneybags »

That is correct. Although I feel like lynching a cc isn't going to happen today if Errant does not even make it back in time to claim.
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Post Post #1040 (isolation #89) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:46 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 970, Moneybags wrote:

Ok so here we go. I think that Tex is
Scum
. All game I've been writing her off as a lurking player that scum will go for lynchbait. But again I've been overthinking everything. And if someone lurks all the time, well, a broken clock is right at least twice a day right? Eventually it'll work out in your favor, and you can just claim to always do this. Which she does, in post .

Post , where she insubstantially claims flub is OMGUS voting her, has always bothered me. After flubber replied I did agree, but even then I said that this post was just such a long shot. If you randomly vote someone and they vote you back, for that very reason (as well as from lurking), you can't just say it's OMGUS and call it a day. You're just using it to push a lynch on the person you're randomly voting.

Then what happens after that? I start pushing flub. Thor pushes flub. This is part of the reason I have Thor as leaning scum. Did he try and hammer home the push started by Tex so it's spread between them, and suspicion is alleviated? That's basically a conspiracy theory so I have no idea, but it's something to chew on. Especially if one of them flips red.
I'd also like to note Thor
has never once addressed Texcat this game.
And this is after siding with Tex v Flubber.

Anyways, back to Tex. After being accusing of lurking we see a few low effort posts. She asks some questions. Finally gives reads (for the first time all game) in post . Says Thor is town, which is funny cause a lot of other people say he's null. Still riding on scum!Flubber.

And so here's what I really find interesting. It's a little bit of a stretch but I think in context to the above it could be something of substance.
In post 935, texcat wrote:
In post 932, Moneybags wrote:
In post 931, texcat wrote:Well, carp. That's a revolting development.
UNVOTE:

I would have cc'd long before now, if I were not VT.
Cc'd who exactly? Why would it have at all made sense to out as the 3rd pr, if that's what you meant?
We almost certainly had an IC in the game. So if I had a PR, for example if I were a jailkeeper, I would have know that either Transcend or RC was lying about their role, and I would have claimed. I guess that's not exactly a cc.
The first posts of hers triggered me cause it feels really weird to me.
What do you mean you would have cc'd?
You say that like ccing was always an option for you.
But because you haven't, you're
obviously
just a VT. Why would that have ever made sense to out, if you were a PR?
The excuse you come up with doesn't cut it for me either. It feels like you made the original comment offhand and realized that as town you would not have had any reason at all to CC.
Why would you, theoretically, assume that we'd have an IC when you are the Jailkeeper? Why would that be a reason to out?
It wouldn't be. It'd be a reason to massclaim sure, but not for you to "cc". Even in your reply you make it sound like you know, or have always known the PRs for this game.

I feel like both these posts are just straight up scum slips. In isolation they might not hold any weight but I think in context of tex's gameplay it's the best lead I have.

VOTE: Texcat

I implore you all to consider this. I feel like it's a significantly better option than anyone else currently on the table.

If I flip before tex,
please
start with her tomorrow.
Putting my tex argument here for additional visibility. Tex is a much better vote than Beef, but a long shot.
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Post Post #1041 (isolation #90) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:51 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 1036, Transcend wrote:
In post 1035, Flubbernugget wrote:Lynch is between town and town now.
Then vote the "town" that has been lurking all game while parked in the IC, only to just now bail out and go on the other town wagon.
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Post Post #1044 (isolation #91) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:34 am

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Tex is absolutely a better lynch than HWS. At least HeWho is contributing and participating in discussion.
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Post Post #1055 (isolation #92) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:15 am

Post by Moneybags »

Max has done more than Tex. Look at Tex's iso. All Tex has done this game is park on flub while Thor and others pushed in him. Tex didn't even give reads until post 496. Then when flub was announced IC she immediently just jumps on the next biggest lynch?
Max at the very least has been trying harder than that.
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Post Post #1060 (isolation #93) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:56 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Wow, now I
really
want to see what Tex flips.
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #94) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:07 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Because HWS isn't texcat and he can't get away with lynching Beefster. Look at how fast this HWS wagon is getting of the ground. Is this not strange to anyone else?
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #95) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:24 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I concede the point about the speed. I spoke from memory and after checking you're actually right. With moz changing votes it's currently Tex=4 and HWS=2.

Multiple people have separately brought up the possibility of a Tex/Thor/+1 scumteam. For you to go full wifom and say Beef would be your partner is incredible. You're really going to go with "if I was scum I would defend my partner"? I'm accusing you of doing the opposite. I'm saying you've been ignoring Tex all game. And now you're not remotely considering her for a lynch? And you're response is "clearly I would do the opposite of what I am now doing if I was scum"?

Idk, that's pretty bananas man.
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Post Post #1068 (isolation #96) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:44 pm

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Nope, that clears it up just fine.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #97) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:29 pm

Post by Moneybags »

I'm not an expert, but from my understand the idea is that it'll give information in one way or another.
If the person ends up being town you can look back at their reads, which should in theory hold more wait as they are now coming from a confirmed towny. You can also look at who pushed the lynch, who piled on for little to no reason, and who hammered.
If they end up being scum of course that in itself is good, but you can also look through their interactions and see who they may be partnered with.
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #98) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:05 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 1102, Transcend wrote:two clears are voting HWS and there's lots of resistance
Fine. I don't like it but I think a NL would be worse. We've had 3 solid wagons, one of which turned out to be town. We can't do a lot with the other 2 because we never got a flip. We need a flip to make sense of this "data" we've been collecting. If we NL we'll be back at square one tomorrow.

He's at L-2 right now. I'm not putting him at L-1 but I'll hammer if no one else is going to. Ultimately I'd rather not vote him at all cause I'm not convinced he's scum. But I'm not NLing and this is apparently what we're going with.
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #99) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:14 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 1109, Transcend wrote:wow so cautious we are :O
Cause I'd rather lynch Tex. At least if Tex flipped scum you'd have a reason not to shoot me. I'm well aware I won't be going into tomorrow. I'm at least going to give HWS time to say whatever they want before they go out instead of setting up the hammer for someone else.
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Post Post #1132 (isolation #100) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:35 am

Post by Moneybags »

In post 1118, mozamis wrote:
oh god this post is bad.
first para is just stating the obvious, and the second is vague shit.
good vig target?
Certainly if Hewho flips town i would shoot this.
You fed up with all advice yet Trancend? ;)
So if HWS flips town, I'm scum for having a stronger TR on him than Tex?
Ok
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Post Post #1134 (isolation #101) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:43 am

Post by Moneybags »

Some final thoughts:

Max and Klick are my strongest townreads. Lynching either of them would be a huge mistake barring any new evidence that might come up down the road.
RC knows what they are doing, quit giving them crap.
Speaking of which he may actually be totally right about Moz. The more Moz speaks the more I get the feeling he's not scumhunting, he's just out for blood.
I don't trust Thor at all.
EP could be scum but there's currently no way to tell. Just watch them (or their replacement if it comes to that). I know this one is kind of a no brainier but I figured it just put it in.

More in depth reads are in
I don't buy Tex's sudden interest in the game. Flip her sooner rather than later.
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Post Post #2001 (isolation #102) » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by Moneybags »

Gg lads, it was fun!
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