Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Mathdino]

I think Kop just townslipped...scum would always be careful with their vote and who they are voting for...town on the other hand, I can see them messing up like this and then fixing it in the next post

Man, as the king of townslips, that was not a townslip, trust me.

Considering Kop's most recent post - 1460 - was made with the intention to

prevent

a potential hammer... The idea that Kop is scum has kinda fell flat in my mind. Still working on compiling that timeline while multitasking.

UNVOTE: Kop

Surface level. Scum does that all the time to posture. Him doing that is pro-town but null.

[Mathdino]

@Hawk

: Right so I completely missed the sheep wagon blowing up, sorry. I thought it was gaining 0 traction.

Yeah if you want my vote back on sheep I'll do it, but I see vote switching as suboptimal, so I'm otherwise parking here for a bit.

[Hawk]

That's reasonable.

I need to get back to work but I'm leaving my vote here as while I do appreciate Sheep's case on Momo I highly doubt Momo is scum with creature. Most of the arguments I can think of for Momo/Creature is a bit WiFoMy so it's more of a gut feeling that he could possibly be maf.

As for SK I highly doubt Una shot A50 and I feel like Impede had much better reason too and arguing that Jay was shot by SK at this point I think is just bad. Even Jay was potentially shooting into you with his shot pool I don't think you shoot Jay as SK.

[yessiree]

VC 2.8

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

sheepsaysmeep (3) -

Impede, momo, Hawk

momo (2) -

sheepsaysmeep, UnabombaH

UnabombaH (2) -

Srceenplay, Mathdino

Srceenplay (1) -

havingfitz

Not voting

- Kop, AnonymousGhost

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-01-23 20:00:00)

[AnonymousGhost]

Unas town so there's 1/5 of your nulls solved

If this is true then I'm happy lynching any of the other 4 (assuming 3 Mafia + 1 SK).

I know I'm probably TRing one scumster (Scum to me = anti-town, not just group scum), but the chances are higher of hitting a baddie in these 4 still, as I believe Scum would be less motivated to be active during the holidays (it's a good excuse for low activity).

Rereading the thread and noticed that this is probably where the 3 mafi + 1 SK theory began circulating.

[momo]

@Mathdino

Don't take your vote of sheep just yet....

We have 4 on right now (counting Kop)....you would make 5...pretty sure we can convince fitz, that's enough for a majority...state that you are fine with a una lynch like I did, don't change your vote because that causes the sheep wagon to lose all momentum

Officialy sheep went from L-1 to L-3.... you really think that's going to cause any pressure on anyone?

[Mathdino]

@Ghost: Damn, I was gonna go find that but lost interest around page 4. Can you scan for anyone assuming 2 mafia, and for anyone who seems to believably subconsciously think there's 3 mafia?

@momo: Or I could just state intent to vote sheep and stay here.

Recent revelations unfortunately leave fitz out of the townbloc.

[momo]

Recent revelations unfortunately leave fitz out of the townbloc.

never said he was in the bloc...just counting on him to be reasonable enough to provide his vote..if not, then I might have to seriously rethink some reads

[AnonymousGhost]

Fine......

I want a cookie for my efforts though.

Do you want me to look for anyone who's assuming either that the SK is around or that the SK isn't around?

[Mathdino]

I'm pretty sure no one assumed the SK was around on D1.

Tell you what: You look at Assemble/Screenplay, Hawk, Mathdino, fitz, Kop
I'll look at RedFlavor, momo, sheep, Una, and Impede.

[AnonymousGhost]

Actually...

... That's not the point if my death helps town. I like to fricken live. It's a natural instinct to want to survive.

Nobody understands me. Waahh!

Everybody wants to live, whether you be town, scum, or SK.

But if your town, dying isn't the be all end all but if it is beneficial and something comes from it, it is easier to take and accept. Remember, you are playing to your win con, if you die and it is achieved, reality is, you played your part.

Jay is the SK, that’s why he has a survivor wincon. Game solved. Great effort. Let’s go home guys

[sheepsaysmeep]

momo do you want to realize how shit your tunneling on me is by looking at my response to why you dont like me

[Mathdino]

Jay claiming survivor wincon is naturally going to make everyone think SK.

I thought SK too but I figured it would be too obvious.

I don't think those quotes are alignment indicative, Ghost.

[AnonymousGhost]

Creating a record of all the times that people mention 2 mafi, 3 mafi, SK, or no SK.

[Mathdino]

I'm already doing that with the 5 players I mentioned.

Make less work for yourself. Take half the work.

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: RedFlavor

When jay voted creature he suddenly became too active looky but not really active, he just said reasons to be inactive

VOTE: creature

Almost50, momo and creature are scumteam

If jay was wolf he probably would not say something about survivor challange so please do not vote him

Early scumteam call, Jay defence, goes after Creature instead of the townies.

Conclusion: Redslot probably town yeah.

Spoiler: momo

Impede is building a case

Who here thinks red vs jay is bussing

Like both of them know they are caught scum so they bus so that whoever is lynched first has been effectively distanced from the other one

Bussing would be pretty weird with 2 mafia.

I have narrowed likely scum to 4 candidates....there are obviously three scum

SMOKING GUN RIGHT HERE. "obviously" three scum.

@momo

: If you're reading this, why did you say this?

So yeah, my current scum team is assemble, creature, and red

Calls the scumteam midday.

we have 3 mislynches available to us assuming scum kills every night and no SK

We have 3 mislynches assuming no SK.

Mention of SK.

Conclusion: I'm obviously predisposed to see momo as town here but yeah I'm fucking positive he's not groupscum at least. There were a few hints of SK in his ISO but it's not worth it today.

Spoiler: sheepsaysmeep

can we not have everyone pushing their own scumteam d1

Frustration at calling scumteams. Looks bad.

jay could be an sk and "confirm" him/herself

I thought mafia had no daytalk.

This is really easy to verify. Why would he say “I thought”? Again, either lazy town or careful scum.

im not seeing thi

Throwing suspicion on Jay for being SK, arguing with Impede that Creature didn't actually townslip. Clear mafia motivation.

*fitz's "townslip" can be faked

fitz's "townslip" was based on the number of mafia. sheep is thinking like scum here.

Conclusion: sheep's ISO doesn't look good at all. I'd never actually gone over it, but he wasn't as down with Creature-lynch as I thought. MAJOR suspect.

Spoiler: UnaBombaH

1 in 3 rule. Calling our Red, Creature & Una for the Scum team.

This is such a BS line-up.
While I can't slot Red OR Creature well enough yet, I'd be willing to say there's 0 scum in this list!

Since we are throwing shit around, I almost feel like calling the scumteam here and now, but I want to see more interactions first.

Talking about the scumteam. I can see why some people see this as consistent with Creature scumpartner. I find it more consistent with SK trying to figure things out (badly).

I believe A50 will not be the lynch today, but I'm certainly going to keep investigating the game with the theory of A50+momo.
[snip]
The third scum is either SK or can be found in the inactives (in which case we will likely find them with the VCAs later)

Whoa okay I didn't notice this. This outright assumes 2 scum and possible 1 SK.

I do still stand by what I said about interactions around A50. Also, A50 as a NK makes sense only if there were blatant crumbs that I missed, OR someone gained distance from it.
No doubt he is a good player, but there would've been better targets for scum to take.
My working theory for today is that SK killed A50, and Mafia wasted the "vig".

Convinced about the popular NK theory here. Calls it a working theory when it's kind of obvious.

After reflecting for a moment, I think we go to VOTE: Mathdino.

A50's ISO doesn't seem to have anything resembling a crumb towards him being a Tracker, however..there is the off chance scum thought he really was the hider.
A50 hypoclaimed to hide behind Creature who was the lynch, and I don't think he ever claimed a 2nd target(?).

So scum could kill him off and there would be no risk for them being implicated.
Based off of this (and the kind of thinking I feel like the kill-decision took,) I'd say Mathdino killed A50.
The off-chance is that someone tried to frame him (read his previous post), but him saying that I'm the primary suspect for it is bullshit. (the only scenario where I killed A50 is the one where I'm a vig, never as scum)
Math was also "soft-defending" A50 D1, and his playstyle fits that of a buddying SK very well.

I'm really confused about this post and I want thoughts on it.
Una completely misunderstands the hider mechanic. He seems to think that SK-Math shot A50 because A50 was the hider and there would be no risk.
But the whole point of hider is that they hide behind a townie so they don't get killed.
If this point was on Unascum's mind at all, he's either faking this mistake or was being incredibly dumb about how hider works last night.

Conclusion: This post is wacky. I can't in good conscience vote here. I don't think SK would be this careless.
VOTE: sheep

Spoiler: Impede

Wait, why can't we be in KKK or KKKK? Then we'd have 2 vig and there would be no reason for a CC or for the Vig to shoot Jay for fakeclaiming. What am I missing?

Being in KKK or KKKK would require 3 scum. Weird that he thought this.

I really don't want to do this, but I really want an answer on this...

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

Why the fuck does he want an answer for this question if he's mafia and already knows?

SK only occurs on odd playercount.

How do you know we have an SK?

How the hell do we know there's an SK!??!?!?!?!?! No one has answered this for me. FFS

lol at this. Needless to say it's either genuine or posturing.

inb4 Sheep/Math scumteam

NAI joke I think.

Implication: UnaBombaH is SK.

I really don't think so. I think Una is potential maf, but not SK. Regardless, you've convinced me to consider Una as possible scum. I have some ISOs to do to solidify this. Will try to make time today.

This is uncomfortable. Why is he so sure Una isn't SK? And if the obvious answer is Impede-SK, why would he not want to deflect suspicion on Una?

Conclusion: Impede isn't mafia, but there's a chance he's SK. Not sure yet.

[momo]

Hey math....when I said there were obv 3 scum...i meant group scum because the only other time I played a semi-open there were 3 scum..I just always thought 13 player equals 10:3 or 9:3:1 ... I have now learnt that I was wrong.

I mentioned the SK to help us keep track of how many mislynches we can afford...

And no, I am not playing dumb...I have never played with only 2 group scum in a non multiball 13 player game

[Mathdino]

hey momo gimme thoughts on fitz as a creature partner

[Mathdino]

Mafia likelihood reads list:

momo
Impede
RedFlavor
Screenplay
Una

Hawk

Kop

fitz
sheep

SK likelihood reads list:
[snip]
I was gonna write this and then I realised SK hunting is balls anyway.
I have no fucking clue.

[momo]

On creature associations alone

I just ctrl+f Creature in fitz's iso

He seems to really be overanalyzing the creature lynch...that being said, I don't really see him as scum, nor do I remember the case against him

[Srceenplay]

Is math alone in thinking una is sk?

[momo]

Is math alone in thinking una is sk?

Not nessacarily...I don't really sk hunt but I could see a una sk....una is scummy but the attacking of the strong towns (a50, momo, mathdino) is a more sk way to play than group scum

[Mathdino]

Is math alone in thinking una is sk?

Why are you voting him then?

My interpretation is because you think he killed A50.

Well in all likelihood, SK killed A50.

[momo]

Is math alone in thinking una is sk?

Why are you voting him then?

My interpretation is because you think he killed A50.

Well in all likelihood, SK killed A50.

this makes sense

[Hawk]

hey momo gimme thoughts on fitz as a creature partner

I know you asked momo but Fitz had a grand total of one post really referencing addressing creature d1. So if they're scum pair it has nothing to do with their interactions d1 and needs to he drawn entirely from d2.

Fitz originally lists not liking Red, Screen and Momo d2. Now is okay with the case on sheep from impede despite not liking impede d1. I don't think fitz is that scummy from his direct line of play but it would be more clear if he had more content. He barely posted d1 and his d2 thoughts are hard to categorize pre flip for me.

I dont think fitz is likely maf if sheep is not maf. But he could be.

Honestly gun to my head if I had to guess. 1 maf and SK left it would be Sheep and Impede. If I'm wrong about sheep I think 2nd Maf was either non existent d1 (fitz, Assemble/screen, Kop) or was on the wagon. Red/Ghost or Momo. But I doubt if we have 2 Maf that Creature was Bussed.

SK is harder if it's not Impede. Why do we think Una would have shot A50?