Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #13 (isolation #0) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:18 pm

Hello all o/
My quick scan sees dice rolling as a tactic suggested. I appreciate the idea behind it but how to know that mafia aren’t loading the dice?
Also I kind of feel that using dice to decide goes against the spirit of the game.
I discussed claiming with my lover and we didn’t know if that was a good idea or not so I guess we will go with the flow.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #36 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:42 am

Toranaga

/in before the 4 of us is the mafia team

dammit I was hours too late.

I can't vote for anybody with such a fancy hat though.

VOTE: DinoMath

'dice' + 'math' you can't defeat me with your mind tricks. Only money.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #79 (isolation #2) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:24 pm

MathDino

I'm not cocky enough to trust my own scumhunting ability above every past town. I have reason to believe that standard scumhunting techniques will work to our detriment this game.

On the one hand I do appreciate a good wall, otoh you keep pushing the dice agenda. What's the point of signing up if you're just gonna roll dice to decide your fate.

The longer the day goes on, the more time scum has to distance from each other and make associations impossible.

I think this is probably untrue because we can simply scroll back to the previous page to see what those associations looked like at the start of the day, because everybody who has to make a vote has to make that vote accountable. And in this setup, every players vote has to be SUPER accountable. If we just roll the dice randomly or turbo lynch somebody we destroy the credibility of that accountability, and if we miss, then come the next day phase we can't use vote-count-analysis to help us find the baddies.

So I'm against both a dice roll and a turbo random lynch.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #80 (isolation #3) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:27 pm

I guess what we are looking for is the set of interactions between declared groups that seem suspicious. If you think of every player group as a hydra, we're looking for the two hydra's that have shady interactions.

So with that in mind I think that the mass claim is probably for the best, and in flagrant disregard of what my lover said earlier, I'll go ahead and declare that I'm paired with DiamonSentinel. Interestingly we both independently hated on the dice routine.

In our topic we basically discussed what the setup was because apparently neither of us read it before signing up, then freaking out when we realised that we had no idea how to scumhunt in this scenario, and then to claim or not claim. We decided we'd just go with the flow, so, here I am, flowing away.

That kinda sounds gross :V

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #93 (isolation #4) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:56 pm

MathDino, that's a big strawman. Town can completely disagree with your idea because it's a pants idea. I'm not calling you bad or stupid for it, I'm saying it's scum to push the agenda that it's too hard to scumhunt so we should just roll a dice instead, and that's why I'm voting you.

Vote count analysis/vote analysis/holding people accountable for their votes - these are things that hold true in regular games and will certainly hold true in this game. To pretend otherwise is the scum agenda.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #94 (isolation #5) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:57 pm

Also, if you don't trust your scumreads, then sheep people

Actually I disagree with this. IMO if you don't trust your scumreads, then get better scumreads.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #98 (isolation #6) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:33 pm

Can you please explain why you disagree that vote count analysis, vote analysis, and holding people accountable for their vote, are worthwhile scumhunting tools in this game.

I do not mean to say that you are 'not good'. I think your idea is a poor one, in that it adversely impacts town, but it does not mean I think poorly of you. I just think that any idea that asks us to trade our experience and scumhunting tools for the random hand of fate, is more likely to come from a scum player than a town player.

I would love for this to be an ordinary game.

Then treat it as such. This is no different to a regular game where the setup is known and night phase is skipped.

I'm saying that scum MUST disagree with it.

No, they don't. Scum can agree with it all the way up until we actually roll a dice and it happens to come up with a scum name. They'll happily go along with it as long as it's a towny being lynched and we'd never known until game over. I think statistically the dice roll favors scum - the first roll is 8/12 in hitting town, and the second roll is 6/12. That's a better than 50% chance, if my napkin math is correct, of scum winning off the rolls.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #103 (isolation #7) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:54 pm

8/12*6/10 = 2/3*3/5 = 2/5 = 40%

Day 1 - 8/12 chance of the lynch randomly favoring scum.
Day 2 - 6/10 chance of the lynch randomly favoring scum.

Yes, I accept that if you multiply out the 'day 1 and day 2' value, it's a 40% win rate for scum.

I cannot explain using maths why this is a bad idea because my math is not strong enough.

However, on day 1, it's 75% chance of town mislynching (random miss).
On day 2, it's 60% chance of town mislynching (random miss).
I would take those odds as scum every time.

I don't really understand how a 75% chance and a 60% chance works out to a 40% chance and I am prepared to learn about this after the game.

However for the purposes of this game I am not persuaded that a random dice roll is in town's favor, and even if it was, I would still be disinclined to employ that as a strategy.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #146 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:22 pm

@Math

OK, I accept your math that says random lynching returns a higher win rate. It is a viable strategy.

Did you discuss this strat with your buddy, Amra (iirc?) they have yet to post in here their thoughts. Or at all.

My thoughts are that town supposedly has a higher winrate via scumhunting. You cited that 'scum were just terrible' or am I misappropriating the situation.

I could abide by a random vote except I would then immediately replace out because there's no point playing and I expect others might do the same.

Even if this strat is optimal, is it something you truly wish to enforce?

@Diamond People can legitimately be switched off by your attitude in 137 and could easily have provoked sheep's 144. It's not AI. A quick ISO of sheep shows that they're mostly non-committal about the dice rolling thing anyway.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #148 (isolation #9) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:15 pm

1, 2: Ok, that seems legit. I can't account for you pushing the dice strat all on your own and getting basically no traction from others if you were in a scum grouping. Until now I don't think anybody has really gone for it.

UNVOTE: Dino

So with that, I'm probably townsorting yourself and Amra.

For 3, I think I'll agree to disagree for now re: scumhunting is impossible and see how it shakes out later in the phase.

Could you please break down for me why you're tr Sheep/Tora, as far as I can see:
Sheep - a bunch of trivial townreads, including a reversed read on Diamond and yourself in the space of a few hours, mainly pagetop empty spam posts, and meta-type posts (posting relationship chart, dice psuedo vote).
Tora - No real...posts? The samurai avatar does make me want to inherently trust it.

The most thing this slot seems to have is a townread on your slot.

I'm mainly interested in why you are townreading this slot and if there's something I've missed.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #218 (isolation #10) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:54 am

I’m vla for another 48 hours.

VOTE: sheep I’ll echo Diamond here re shitposting but I’m more concerned with the flippant and mutual townreads sheep and Dino gave each other for no real reason that I can see. However I’m leaning town on Dino atm so.

More of a let’s get this party started than a kill this player out of the game vote.

Hey Sheep, what’s with the page top business?
L

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #240 (isolation #11) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:42 pm

Dino why in earth would you ask people not to comment in a game that is already desperate for activity.

We have only a few pages of content and I strongly urge new players to read them because it’s the only information we have right now.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #251 (isolation #12) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:03 pm

Dino, you can’t go “I dont know how to scum hunt in this setup let’s just roll a dice” and then hand out town reads. You have said repeatedly that you don’t know how to scum hunt but you will give out town reads based on literally nothing.

When I posted I “lost points” but when sheep posted you literally didn’t care.

I accept that you may not know wtf to do but attempting to railroad town into dice rolling and now attempting to railroad town into sheepingnsheep - this and the prior thing reeks of hypocriticalness.

I’m concerned enough that I’m reversing my town read of you and I encourage other players to read the game and take their own view.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #255 (isolation #13) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:10 pm

Hold people accountable for their votes
Vote count analysis on day 2 if we miss.
Engage players in discussion and question strange interactions.
In short everything that you would do in a normal game.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #260 (isolation #14) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:02 am

UNVOTE: sheep
VOTE: dino

I am vla and been reading the game through a phone. I had literally no idea that you were talking to your replacement friend. Your assumption that sheep didn’t know is stretching and your explanation look like ass pulls to me.

I would be done with your open wolfing sir.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #356 (isolation #15) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:27 pm

Back from VLA but work so :/ will post a more comprehensive state-of-the-paladin when I get home proper.
Quick snapshots to Dino since I remember some things from my scroll through -
My town meta is different - quite likely; my last completed game as town was over three years ago.
See me online but not posting - I was vla on my five year wedding anniversary and couldn't really post except snippets, but I wanted to keep abreast of the game.
Thoughts about Cy - I've been playing the game through a 3" screen and mainly scrolling through everything. I scrolled past Cy because walls on an iphone don't work well however I do intend to revisit that.
I'm interested in the momo possible slip; I disagree with my partner that scumslips never happen. However 100% of scum slips I have ever personally found turned out to be simple mistakes on behalf of the player, as I myself have also made mistakes, so I am cautious. I agree that Kop/Momo having divergent opinions on their lover topic is alarming and in hindsight I can see why you would want players to claim their conversation topic, specifically because, presumably the scum pairs have the same topic and divergences should be punished. I view the 'nobody vote' Momo-comment as probably more severe than your dice rolling approach and do want to look closer at this slot.
I forgot the other thing you asked, feel free to repost anything you urgently want me to look at if I haven't gotten to it in a few hours.

I'm also interested in looking closer at Tora and now that other players are posting am looking for opportunities to engage with them. Nothing sorts faster than an angry internet debate.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #357 (isolation #16) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:31 pm

please explain to me the scum motivation of Tora trying to town-clear the guy that his partner is voting for.

It looks more towny when players have differing views from their partner - it leads credence to the idea that they are acting in the interests of town. If I was scum I would be doing everything in my power to not look anything like my claimed partner.

That said it is much harder to fabricate reads especially when you are further having to act around another player and the more a player believably does this the more likely I would see them as actually town.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #365 (isolation #17) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:18 pm

Hey Dino, can you run your program again with the following parameters:

A - On day 1, if scum is killed, you don't roll again. Justification: Eliminate impossible scenario's from the decision matrix.

B - On day 1, if we sheep a scum player, odds of town win. Kingmaker scenario gone bad.

C - On day 1, if we sheep a town player, odds of town win. Kingmaker best case scenario.

By my math we're looking at around a 54.45 chance of a scum victory in A, a 72% chance of a scum victory in B, and a straight 50% chance of town/scum winning in C.

Random only
Kingmaker

Now doing my catch up post.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #367 (isolation #18) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:36 pm

Which player is that?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #370 (isolation #19) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:39 pm

You are partner with Tora though right?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #372 (isolation #20) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:42 pm

What do you make of Tora's first content post of the game being a defence of Dino in 263, sometime after voting for Cy?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #373 (isolation #21) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:44 pm

I'm still going through, but I noticed you town read Cy in 159. What changed this?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #377 (isolation #22) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:58 pm

You RVS voted Cy, and then you town read him. Sometime later, Tora votes for Cy and quotes 'sheeping sheep' as the basis for the vote. I would have expected you to respond to a wagon suddenly forming on your (apparently) only townread at that point. I also would have expected Tora to address this as people should be accountable for their votes, yes?

However, the one thing that Tora deemed noteworthy enough to do anything about was defend Dino, a slot that he shouldn't care about since he's not lovers with Dino. Right?

Looking through the earlier interactions, it appears Dino proposes the random-kingmaker methodology, and poses a heap of math that supposedly proves it's a good strat (but it's not). That slot has then handed the decision of who to 'randomly' lynch off to you, but you're pushing a slot you had town read earlier.

So the cynic in me thinks that this looks a lot like Tora/Sheep/Dino/Tange are the scum team just trying to bully town into an easy win. But probably I am wrong, so I'm interested in your thoughts on those interactions.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #378 (isolation #23) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:04 pm

I just noticed in 256 Dino claims that he is sheeping you because he is your lover. Thoughts.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #381 (isolation #24) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:29 pm

And now I've caught up. Actually there's not a whole lot, far less than any other game I've ever played - I think the speculation on dice rolling pretty much killed interactions and is the strongest anti-town element in the game.

So if you are indeed scum, Dino, good job on that.

Spoiler:

Overall, I think the main incriminating reads/interactions are Dino/Sheep/Tora/Tanga. I'm prepared to accept Dino misclaiming Sheep as his lover could be me misunderstanding the context but...feels bad man.

I'm concerned that the way the Kingmaker was 'supposed' to happen was a random dice roll by a generally towny-read player, the way it's eventuated thus far is the scummy four have picked within their group and no dice roll took place, and Sheep has backed away from her townread on her vote target for no specific reason.

I also feel like I've read somewhere that making truly proven random dice rolls is grounds for a modkill but I can't seem to find it on recollection.

I'm scum reading these slots:
Math Dino – MisaTange
Toranaga – Sheepsaymeep

I think Cy - Lalendra are probably town; although their content has diminished during the day phase and Lalendra just giving up does concern me. I'm not super against a lynch on this slot except it's being pushed by the four people I think are scum.
I'm on the fence for Momo/Kop. The slot has done nothing but is likely confirmed town due to the qt timestamp sharing issue.
I feel that RedFlavor/Manrock slot is town.

I encourage town to actually go back and read the game - it doesn't take long at all and there is enough content there to quickly come to opinions about slots.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #382 (isolation #25) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:31 pm

I don't know where you got those numbers tbh.

Let me know if you'd rather me explain my theoretical calculations, or actually recode the setup and demonstrate.

I looked up how to calculate probabilities and manually plugged the matrix in. There are images in my post that show where the figures come from.

I would like you to code it up yourself or just show the psuedocode and I'll implement it myself and share the code.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #386 (isolation #26) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:55 pm

cytheflyguy (5) - MisaTange, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga, momo

@mod - Tally is incorrect; Momo changed their vote immediately prior.

While that may be entirely true, I don't think I alluded to anything of that in my post?

u r right sky....red's entire iso is setup spec to appear towny and a random vote on cy that says let's go...indicating that he is scum going for a push...i'll bite

@Dino

I've read everything that's been said, but any response I have needs a lot of time dedicated to it. So I'll get to this soon.

There is no rush. I'll also try to compile something myself when I get a chance. I'm looking forward to seeing what the replacements have to say about the game state when they arrive.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #388 (isolation #27) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:28 pm

I'm actually curious as to why I've townread Red now and went back on the iso - I think I'm putting too much stock into 'There is no reason for scum to roll a dice, they could just say lynch A and lynch B who are actually town members'.
A quick ISO on red/manrock shows they basically don't exist (hence the replacement) so I'm shuffling them up to the scummy side of the list. The vote that Momo highlighted and incorrectly attributed to me is highly suspect. I think this is probably a better random lynch target than Cy, who I think is probably town.

@Dino

Hypothetically, what do you think of a scenario where we do elect a kingmaker, and if they guess wrong, we lynch the king the following day? Please tell me why this is a terrible idea.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #391 (isolation #28) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:22 pm

Sure thing.
1 - First post from the moderator saying who the topic is for.
2 - Diamond - Who are you/this'll be fun.
3 - Sky - Hello, good luck, have fun
4 - Diamond notices that our join dates are nearly exactly one year apart.
5 - I say that's strange then ask Diamond if they know anything about the setup because I signed without reading somehow.
6 - I then post the setup because I found it.
7 - I ask if we should crumb or not and say I have no idea wtf to do.
8 - Diamond says it's nightless, and speculates everybody will revealing there partners on day 1. Asked me not to reveal unless the trend seems to be going that way. Says that they'll just wing it and hope we win day 1.
9 - Mod locks topic.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #392 (isolation #29) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:26 pm

TBH I would really like it if the players who were not my chief scumreads were actually in here and posting so I could interact with them. I'm not going to be able to convince Dino that sheep is scum and vice versa, and I'd love to have other players chime in their thoughts so if I'm on the wrong track I can refocus.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #393 (isolation #30) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:27 pm

That said - Dino - what are your thoughts re: Sheep and my interaction over the last few pages? I personally feel unsatisfied.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #403 (isolation #31) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:09 pm

I'm just bummed because I was really excited for this game and now I feel like I'm going to get lynched D1 through no fault of my own.

I feel this is blatantly untrue because I super hate appeals to emotion and, even though it's totes your birthday, my knee-jerk reaction to ATE is to lynch it off the face of the earth. So if you get lynched it's probably because you didn't do enough to avoid it.

You are at, what, L-2? Four players voting for you? Probably scum is already on that wagon or you are scum. I would be looking at lovers that are voting separately - see Sheep (voting Momo) and Toro (voting you). It's not even like half the players actually agree on the dice roll strat - you could do plenty to not get lynched in this situation. So one of these is true:
1 - You are scum and scum are fighting to get a lynch elsewhere. Not really any real wagons that I can see - I'm the only one truly pushing any other wagon, I think.
2 - You are town and scum are making some effort to lynch you. Plausible, but the lack of existence of any real counterwagon makes me think c;
3 - You are town and scum aren't making any effort to lynch you because a whole bunch of town are doing it themselves.

2 and 3 are the main reasons I think Cy is probably town. I feel if we had scum at L-2 there would be a lot more posts from outraged players, eh?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #404 (isolation #32) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:10 pm

Dino

You know sheep is a guy right?

I didn't realise - I thought sheep was female. I did think I might have the context incorrect which is why I wasn't screaming SCUMSLIP but Sheep's total lack of response made me wonder.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #409 (isolation #33) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:27 pm

Correct play for scum with cy/Lalendra is to NOT post a ton of outrage to make it look like there's no one defending them, in the hopes that town will whip up a lynch on someone else.

Wait on second thought, you understand that the fact that you/Diamond have been trying to counterwagon the whole game is actually exactly why I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra right? Like... you guys ARE the outrage

yesss, towncleared~~

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #417 (isolation #34) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:57 pm

(I believe my 'kingmaker' image does represent what you are about to go code up - please have a quick look and see if you can save yourself some time)

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #419 (isolation #35) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:23 pm

1. You can't lynch the same player twice
2. You can't lynch one player then lynch their lover

Oh.

You're right. I'll revisit this when I've had some sleep. My eyes are starting to glaze over.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #421 (isolation #36) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:05 pm

inb4 pagetop?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #422 (isolation #37) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:05 pm

Dammit

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #438 (isolation #38) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:07 pm

Overnight I reflected on whether there was any value in continuing the dice discussion. I think that I'm investing more ego into 'being right' than 'this is good for town'. All the math talk is non alignment indicative noise that shits up the thread with posts that make it harder to follow through. So I'm going to let it slide and revisit the math after the game, once alignments are known, and for now say "Mathematically you are likely correct, however I would prefer not to psuedo-random lynch because game enjoyment reasons". AKA in the cold light of dawn I wonder if this was just a giant town-v-town rant and I need to revisit.

Dino

Wait okay I found scum guys. Never reread the early game lol.

Read pages 1 and 2 (the source of the best reads) and see how I know a certain couple of players are scum.

Well your options from pages 1-2 are Tora, Red, Sky, Sheep, Diamond (I think that's everybody) and since we presume you're not scum, I'm not scum, and le-diamond are not scum, that narrows it down pretty quickly. There's the Sheep/Tora slot and the Red-slot. That's not enough to find 'all the scum' but since one hit counts for all it's good enough ^_~ I'm going to presume that you are still townlocking sheep/naga until otherwise specified so that narrows it down to Red.

I don't really like the Sheep-Tora slot as you are no doubt aware but I am increasingly less inclined to see the Dino-Tora connection that I thought was concrete yesterday.

My main issues with Red are what Momo pointed out (and incorrectly attributed to me), which is reflected in pages 1 and 2, that Red is super casual with his vote and just parks it wherever, and immediately subscribed to the dice roll idea, while Manrock (his partner iirc) was against it. However Manrock never really did anything and replaced out. This did not look like a strategic replace-out in any way so I don't think that replace is AI.
Red completely slipped under my radar to the point that I was passively town reading them. I'm not entirely sure how that happened and that bothers me a lot.

Consequently I am super interested in seeing what Hyule brings to the table.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #441 (isolation #39) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:11 pm

I'm going to clarify why I think Red subscribing to die roll is a scummy thing even though we might presume that random lynch is towny - he did so apparently without evaluating if it was good or bad, and it looked like "Here is an opportunity to vote park without having to be accountable for my vote". Even Sheep has expressed some distaste for that which shows they've put in some thought and -ugh- is indicative of town alignment.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #496 (isolation #40) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:43 pm

I'm a software engineer with a degree in computer science and I am not getting into the math debate again until post game. I think that it's entirely possible to scumhunt using our standard scumhunting tools - holding players accountable for their votes, looking at associations/vote count analysis, and getting players reads.

Which is why posts from my partner like this

All my reads are gut

make me cry.

I'm sure actually rolling a die and voting proven randomly is actually a modkill but I wasn't able to find it when I was looking for it otherwise that is the first thing I would have said. However, the way the 'random' roll came out was entirely fabricated - Toraslot and Dino both townread each other, and Toraslot (sheep) picked Cy for a lynch. Tora/Dino/yourslot hopped on the wagon, Sheep jumped off, and Red hopped on.

Up until now the only players who have been actively participating are Dino, Diamond and myself, with Sheep/Tora/Red just sheeping other players, and Cy/Lal basically doing nothing except existing. There's probably more but it's only 20 pages, take half an hour and you'll be caught up. I'd love to get another voice in here even if it is in a slot I'm scumreading X__X

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #505 (isolation #41) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:51 pm

Toranaga and sheepsaymeep

pisskop

Mathdino and

Amrochora/MisaTange

MathBlade
Redflavor and

manrock

Hyung
Cy and lalendra
Diamond and Sky
Kop and

bigfinn

momo

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #508 (isolation #42) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:53 pm

Dino

What do you think of the Sky/Diamond slip? If you wanna lynch them instead I'll try to save you/cy.

I'm unaware of any slip. Care to clarify? It looks like you're doing this fake reaction test thing again.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #519 (isolation #43) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:03 pm

It looks to me that Diamond was testing the waters to see if people wanted to claim, which is consistent with my more detailed explanation that you asked for in 391 and also with what Diamond opened with.

7 - I ask if we should crumb or not and say I have no idea wtf to do.
8 - Diamond says it's nightless, and speculates everybody will revealing there partners on day 1. Asked me not to reveal unless the trend seems to be going that way. Says that they'll just wing it and hope we win day 1.

Dino

I had to strongarm sheep into going along with my idea too.

That is literally the opposite of what happened. Hello? Aren't you supposed to be buddies with MathBlade? Why lie?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #531 (isolation #44) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:14 pm

Cy's partner is Lalendra
Toranaga's partner is Sheep
Redflavor's partner is Hyrule

Of those three pairs, my preferred lynch is Sheep/Toranaga, however I have no special attachment to the other two slots because they basically don't exist, and Lalendra's ATE in the previous 36 hours was unappealing to me.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #535 (isolation #45) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:24 pm

@MathBlade

when you are caught up, I would also caution you to examine the Tora/Sheep slot and it's buddying to your own. Dino's blanket acceptance and auto pass of the slot are one of the key reasons I am scumreading your slot.
Especially note Sheep has jumped off the Cy-wagon with the barest provocation.
The other reason is mainly Dino's attitude and playstyle seems hellbent on his way or the highway and that looks a lot like open wolfing to me. I do appreciate your efforts to actually play the game though.

That seems counter intuitive and what emotion did you feel when Diamond did that?

It fit exactly in line with Diamond wanting to know how town felt about claiming before deciding whether or not we should claim. I will admit being surprised that Diamond was the first person to bring it up.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #536 (isolation #46) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:25 pm

Note I claimed in 80.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #538 (isolation #47) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:29 pm

Mainly for the reason stated immediately before claiming -

I guess what we are looking for is the set of interactions between declared groups that seem suspicious. If you think of every player group as a hydra, we're looking for the two hydra's that have shady interactions.

So with that in mind I think that the mass claim is probably for the best

I hadn't seen any argument so far that made keeping the claims secret worthwhile and by that time over half the groups had claimed, iirc.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #541 (isolation #48) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:42 pm

What is/are the other reason(s)?

I just said it in that exact post - note past tense.

I hadn't seen any argument so far that made keeping the claims secret worthwhile and by that time over half the groups had claimed, iirc

Dino

I guess what I'm asking is, why tell them why you're scumreading us at all?

bzzzt! This looks to me that you are complaining that my scumread is unfair, rather than actively going out and proving why you are town.

I intuitively want to townread Blade because he's doing the hard yards, but you're just browbeating players into submission and making no real effort outside of arbitrary and random lynch. Yes I accept that is your stated goal. It doesn't mean I like it.

I'm trying to get Blade to look at his partners supposed town reads because I can glean a lot from your net alignment by seeing what he does about it.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #542 (isolation #49) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:43 pm

I mean Dino you have posted a fucking lot in this game and you're only scumreads are the players who are voting you? Am I mistaken?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #545 (isolation #50) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:50 pm

@MathBlade

post 535, I accept that you might have thought I was talking to Dino >_>

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #549 (isolation #51) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:15 pm

Namely the first thing I noticed is that if cy isn’t scum the scumteam would have had to mass plan to claim lovers which is odd.

- I don't see how Cy being town leads to a scum mass claim. Could you please clarify?

With the benefit of hindsight - speculating - if I was in the scum qt (I presume it's all 4 in there, and not just 2x2 scum topics) I would want us to all pick a lover so we could get our story's straight, and then push for a claim up front. Acting first and decisively looks towny imo.
In this circumstance there is some benefit to Dino's qt interrogation as scum either have to fabricate or all universally and on their own decide not to post at all (or lie and say they did in the main thread).
I fully expect scum anticipated having to claim their thread and made plans to accomodate it; which is why I feel that Dino's bait-and-slip technique doesn't truly yield town/scumslips as he believes.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #577 (isolation #52) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:33 pm

UNVOTE: Dino
VOTE: cytheflyguy

I truly hoped that some other towns would come in to this game but I was clearly mistaken.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #578 (isolation #53) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:43 pm

The reason I had not voted sheep yet is because look at this tally.

cytheflyguy (4) - Mathblade, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga
Mathdino (2) - Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel
momo (2) - sheepsaysmeep, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - cytheflyguy
RedFlavor (1) - momo

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

If I voted Sheep, Diamond is likely to sheep because they've copied all my votes so far. Sheep would be forced to countervote Cy, and Lalendra would naturally be forced to vote Sheep.

Look at what happens to the tally now.

cytheflyguy (5) - Mathblade, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga, sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep (4) - cytheflyguy, Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel, Lalendra
RedFlavor (1) - momo

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

Leaving the hammer on either slot with Momo/Red/Kop/Hyung deciding the lynch, players who have had literally no impact on the game so far.

The reason I was trying to get the Math slot to determine if Sheep was scum or not is because my interactions seemed to say they were, but if I was wrong (and they were town while Cy is scum), then sheep would be an easy mislynch.

I was desperately looking for an intelligent second opinion when the only people talking were Dino, Sheep, and Diamond.

I'm disappointed that Math has come to the wrong conclusion. The cynic in me says that it's because Sheep/Math really are scum but I'm now forced to vote Cy to stay in the game.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #580 (isolation #54) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:46 pm

And if sheep is scum, I was expecting a hammer on Cy as soon as I shifted my vote to sigh. Well now the die are cast, let's see how they fall.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #585 (isolation #55) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:58 am

Open wolfing basically exactly what Dino has done all game.

I'm probably not going to try to convince Dino and Blade that they are scum with Sheep since they're not inclined to believe me but I'm inspired to do some work to see if I can get the many afk and neutral players out there to vote. I was pretty salty that Blade/Sheep/Dino all decided that I'm scum but then I figured well I've been calling them scum all game, so that's fair.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dino

Aside from my many repeated statements that are trivially accessible in my iso the fact that Cy/Red both showed up to immediately vote for my slot when there was a better wagon around (sheep) should be enough of a concern that players go uh oh.

So to Lalendra/Cy/Momo/et al, what do you think about that?

More importantly, are you happy to go into LYLO tomorrow with Dino, who's stated strat is to arbitrarily pick a player (it could be you) and vote regardless of interactions, vote count analysis etc?

In other words why the fudge are players willing to sheep a slot that has no scum hunting except for badly put together fake reaction tests. Both Dino and Blade ignored my explanations for what was in my private topic which suggests to me that they were not looking for an explanation, they were looking for a target.

I am unwilling to go into LYLO while that slot is still active and if you are interested in playing the game of mafia, you should be putting your votes there.

If you disagree, please provide reasons.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #586 (isolation #56) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:01 am

Dino/Blade I'm not ignorant of Red/Cy's votes, I'm just choosing to focus elsewhere at the moment. What are your thoughts? Do you care? Why/why not?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #587 (isolation #57) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:21 am

@Everyone

Eg look at this awful post from Dino.

Think about this. We can potentially get the votes of sheep/Tora and Red/Hyung. Kop/momo is possible. Clearly cy/Lalendra and Sky/Diamond are very opposed to lynching the other pair. Is that a scumtell? I don't know. By Sky's logic, it is, but I have no idea, and I lowkey believe that one of the pairs is just trying to make it look like they're all scum together.

At no point have I ever said Cy/Lalendra is a protected species and I am on record stating at least twice that I hated Lalendra's appeals to emotion and was happy to lynch that slot off the planet. I just didn't think it was a scum slot and I was unhappy to vote there until I could get my bigger scum reads (Sheep/Dino) to talk to each other like normal human beings instead of special super best friends forever. I DID make some speculation that Cy/Lal was probably a town slot because there was no real counterwagon against Cy at the time.

If cy/Lalendra is town, and we lynch them, Sky/Diamond are likely to fuck us over by voting with Math's alternate team Kop/momo/Red/hyung. Loss.

I'd do vote count analysis, read analysis, etc etc, exactly as I've said I would all along. If they flip green I'd be looking hard at the players on that wagon, which does include Red, but I am by no means in Blade's pocket. This is as you say a terrible reason to vote me - you have lots of evidence and a big bread crumb trail describing exactly how and where I would vote, contrast to the massive unknown players who you have no idea what they will do.
The only thing those players have that is more appealing to you is the fact that they are likely to not read and just sheep their way and you don't have to do anything more than point. I think that's the real motivation for why you want me out of the game - I'm the only player willing to question you.

If Sky/Diamond is town, and we lynch them, we still have the votes tomorrow to counteract scum.

No, you don't. The game has two pairs that have barely checked in at all and one set hasn't even voted. It's LYLO - the first wrong vote and it's game over. You are preparing to hand the keys over to the collective unknown masses. This doesn't sound like a responsible strategy to me.

And because I'm definitely gonna get accused of this, yes, this is policy territory. I believe Sky/Diamond's fixation on everyone I'm townreading (and also total lack of apparent townreads) is a LyLo liability, if not scum. They're also very likely to be scum.
'Everyone I am townreading' is a single slot - Tora and Sheep. It's not so hard to explain one read, Dino. That's all I've really asked you all game and you won't do it.

I'm seeing lots of misrepping, lots of straw man arguments and hypocrisy from this slot, and a total lack of accountability. Yes I accept that is Dino's strat but the fact is we didn't do the dice roll voting so it's not acceptable to just sit back and say "Well I'll let other players decide what to do for me then". So don't give me 'your slot has been the least willing to compromise or come to a middle ground' because I've done everything you asked and you've not done the one thing I asked you.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #613 (isolation #58) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:19 am

Dino

i've done a completely accurate political analysis of the gamestate and if you and i are in lylo together, you know we're just gonna tear each other apart

so yeah let's do it now

Well that is almost true. We'll agree to disagree about the accurate political climate chart because you could only truly do this if you knew the alignments of players, and we won't bother with the 'well only scum could possibly know that' train because we're not children.

Regarding Cy/Lalendra, consider my situation for just a second. Just a second!

Sky sees Dino massively favoring a slot (Sheep) for no reason, and vice versa.
Sky sees a slot with 3/4 of that psuedoteam all hardlocking a slot because 'random'.
Sky asks players what do.
Those players switch to Sky.
???

I think anybody with any reasonable amount of knowledge of the game state - or actually, a reasonable knowledge about how the game of mafia works - would want to question this. I also think anybody would question 'wait why would players who are barely posting, jump in to the thread JUST to switch their vote to the next popular bandwagon'.

So the reason I say that 'is almost true' is because even at this point I as a player can realistically change my reads and do interesting or strange things, even if we wind up going to LYLO with both you and I standing.
Meaning if you and I are just town raging there is an even chance at some point I will figure it out and go 'Wait a minute, what is player x even doing?'
However I don't believe that is true of the Dino slot, because as you say, you have 'analysed the political climate' and you also confessed that your partner and you are in hip synch for a random (not actually random btw) and arbitrary lynch.

In short your predicating that Cy must be scum if I am scum, and that Cy must be scum because he wasn't hammered yet. But there were six player slots that barely existed that could have hammered and switching it over to me for no reason better than you haven't got your hammer yet is, actually, fucking bonkers. In a regular game of mafia we call that 'opportunistic voting' and that is a scum alignment tell.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #614 (isolation #59) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:07 pm

I guess there is one more thing. I think that town players ordinarily are not super confident in their reads. For example, I'm not town reading anybody. The strongest scum leads I have are Maths and Sheep, and this fundamentally began as a simple question 'Why are you guys townreading each other?' and went from there. So if at some point, Maths/Sheep revisit this and/or provide credible reasoning, a reasonable chunk of my push does dissolve. Because I'm aware of this I have at least floated the idea that scum may indeed be outside of the Maths/Sheep slots and am considering the possibility of yes, Cy/Lalendra could be scum, yes, Red/Hyrule could be scum, etc etc. I also do see indecisiveness in some other players, and to be absolutely fair one of them is Sheep, who has backflipped on their reads a couple of times in ways that I hate, but town aren't naturally confident because every town player has that secret nugget of doubt somewhere buried in their cold dark heart.

From time to time I expect to see traces of that nugget emerging and that's what I'm looking for when I town read players. I think townslips can be manufactured and scumslips can be misattributed, so I usually don't rely on them because often times I am wrong.

What I am interested in are sudden, unexplained behaviors - usually votes - or players influencing the game. The second camp I want to know can I trust this player because if somebody else has done all the hard work then I don't have to.

So when I see a player like Maths who specifically wants to avoid attributing themselves to any one thing, and yet is super hard behind a lynch of a certain slot - and uses an abstract case such as mathematics, or a WIFOMY case like lining-up-lynches - I don't see that towny nugget of doubt there. When Dino refused to look at sheep, it's because there's no need for him to do it - he already knows Sheep's alignment, and everybody who disagrees with him must be wrong. Not the intuitive "Oh, I see a player doesn't understand why I think x, let me explain to them why it is so", but actual totally ignoring that he was even asked, and even haranguing on me that I didn't ask properly as a justification for not doing it. This sense of entitlement, that they deserve a please and thank you, doesn't come from town.

These players are confident. They know exactly what they are trying to do. That confidence doesn't come from town who thinks they've caught scum. It comes from players who don't want to be questioned and don't want to have to explain themselves. Dino will happily engage on math discussion and talk with his partner or cut walls with me but he will literally not engage with any player in any meaningful way about game state and the reads.

I guess I'm having a hard time seeing that coming from town.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #619 (isolation #60) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:51 pm

I am unfortunately out of time right now and will get to your response hopefully within the next 12 hours. I will at least say that what you have written appears to be in good faith and I will return in kind.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #651 (isolation #61) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:21 pm

"who should we lynch tomorrow"

phone post

knowing my alignment when Diamond/Sky flips I would say the votes that are the most suspicious on my wagon are Cy/Lalendra followed by Red/whoever red is team with. Cy most suspicious because natural progression should have been a vote on sheep to stay alive but the vote on dia suggests he knew he wasn't in any danger aka scum were already on the cy wagon and he was confident that he would get ~2 votes shifted wherever. Lalendra ambivalent about voting also concerning.

Second place is Sheep/Tora.

Third place is afk slot - possibly scum is super unmotivated this game due to giant walls and killing a blank slot probably just as good or better than random lynch or scumhunting

my preference is hyung because despite promising to catch up they never did. and also iric they are buddies with red who as mentioned above has troubling votes

cut by hyhung lol

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #652 (isolation #62) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pm

inb4 why i didn't vote cylendra

like i said before

half the game hadn't checked in. I was not at all confident that scum had even posted yet. I was reluctant to put a player within hammer range that early in the phase when claims mean nothing.

why change vote back to Dino

because the Cy wagon didn't exist and I realised that the best way for town to get out of this mess is for sky to 1v1 dino because you only truly get to know somebody when you fight them

i was super salty last night when all those votes appeared on me and cy was a knee-jerk reaction vote

but you should be aware that it can't be Cy/Sky scum team with Cy's votes there eh.

I was considering posing this challenge to maths-
you vote sheep
I'll vote cy
that takes us out of the voting equation. then we can see what the rest of the town does. ought to be interesting.

but i'm not real sure if that has merit.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #655 (isolation #63) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:55 pm

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Cylendra

I think this is all I can do at this point until Im back from work.

Im not townreading you per say but I will accept that your votes at least have a natural logical progression and you have been following/active in the game. Cy literally had no reason to vote me once Dia/Sky had voted Dino if we were all one big scum team. It looks like they simply aligned with the bigger townblock. I can't argue from VCA that you are scum. OTOH cy/Red look like baddies purely from vca

well gotta go :/

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #657 (isolation #64) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:58 pm

UNVOTE:
VOTE: cytheflyguy

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #672 (isolation #65) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:05 am

I am here and going through my response for Dino. Before I start I am just going to berate my partner a little bit.

I do have a null!town on Lalendra. Cy hasn't done anything noteworthy

Lalendra also hasn't done anything noteworthy but Cy posted a garbage post that was a copy/paste wall and voted us for the most trivial of reasons. Lalendra looks like they are sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see which way the wind is blowing before voting.
I kind of feel that warrants a bit more than 'null!town' tbh.

In other news, Sky, stop fucking wagon hopping. It's hard enough for me to deal with this wagon without you floundering here and there.

There is no Dino wagon, nor a Cytheflyguy wagon

. We've spent nearly 30 pages trying to make some heat on Sheep/Dino appear and there doesn't really appear to have worked. I think face it, nobody cares what we're doing, so we have to care about what they're doing if we still want to impact the game. I'm fine with a Sheep lynch but is it realistic at this point? Without Dino/Blade stepping away from this position, I don't think so.

@Dino

now responding to your 665.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #673 (isolation #66) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:23 am

Never mind, my wife has asked me to call it a night. I'll try very hard to get a proper response in tomorrow midday (around 12 hours from this post).

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #674 (isolation #67) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:25 am

In the mean time, if Naga/Sheep could be so kind as to provide me with samples of some of their scum/town games I would appreciate it. I see Sheep has 57 threads active but many of them are games they replaced into recently or are not actually games at all.

Also if you (Dino) know of any alts that sheep plays under to help me look for some common scum/town tells I would appreciate it. If you've dived my meta as you claimed you have then you will know what I'm going to do, but it does take a significant amount of time.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #738 (isolation #68) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:11 pm

I'm convinced that a town that would mislynch me is just laying down and letting the mafia walk all over them.

I would like to unconvince you. There is some value in self voting and putting ourselves at L-1 in this setup and I have been considering it.

Seeing Dino put some pressure on Sheep/Tora has greatly improved my opinion of the slot (Math).

@Dino re meta - you made some comment earlier that you had been looking at my meta and said that I was not 'playing to my town meta' iirc. I agreed that was likely as my last completed town game (at that time) was over three years ago.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #740 (isolation #69) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:25 pm

We also need to consider that even if we are super right in all caps about Dino/Sheep from the beginning we have categorically failed to convince anybody of that. We need to avoid this tone of 'I am right and you are wrong' from influencing our posts, because when I go back and read yours I'm like "I would lynch that off the face of the planet" and judging by your comments, you're thinking the same of mine.

The thing is we don't know Math's alignment. Assuming we're lynched this phase (Dia) that means the only active players in LYLO are likely to be Sheep/Tora and Math/Math. If that is in fact the scum team then it is likely gg. Also if that is the case, then there is literally no point in arguing because none of the other players are active enough to read what we say and make an informed opinion, and Dino is never going to agree that Dino is scum/sheep is never going to agree that sheep is scum.

So we need to live in a world where at least one of those slots are town if we are to salvage this game because if both of them are not then it is probably game over already, and of those two slots, which one do you think is most likely going to be town? Judging by your vote on sheep I'd suggest Dino; but if you're going to townread any of those players at all then you have to actively engage with them and not treat them like idiots. Because players can absolutely disagree with us without being fools, bad, or wrong, and they can absolutely want to lynch slots (ours included) for reasons that we don't understand/agree with, and town can (and probably will) vote in LYLO completely differently from what is speculated in this day phase because once a flip has appeared, suddenly all those tools - vote count analysis, interactions, reads list etc etc - go from hypothetical to concrete. And that will be game changing.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #742 (isolation #70) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:32 pm

I see no value in self-voting as town tbh. Aren't you interested in who else is willing to vote you?

Tora has already indicated intent to hammer and, Sheep temporarily getting off the wagon notwithstanding, my countervote on Cy has no real value to distinguish that we're not partnered together if there's no other votes there - something Blade has pointed out.

Late the-day-before when I was salty I was thinking about a tactical modkill to force LYLO this dayphase but I felt that was a bit dirty. But the thought of "Is there some way that I can show I am prepared to kill myself to save the game" stuck with me and then I considered, there is no reality where scum would deliberately put themselves at L-1 with some players willing to vote and at least one threatening to hammer.

Whether that is actually a real/good thing to do is something I'd have to put more thought into before ever committing to it because anybody can go 'Self vote is a scum vote' and hammer, and that would be non AI and therefore useless in LYLO.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #743 (isolation #71) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:34 pm

@Diamond

Then take a break. Go call your mom and tell her you love her or something. It's just a game of mafia and the results never really matter. If we die, we die. The world still turns.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #747 (isolation #72) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:50 pm

I honestly really want that to be the scumteam because "La/cy in the Sky with DiamondS" is fucking perfect.

Holy shit

Sky, besides that team (for which I'm seeing both tells for and against), what team are you gunning for?

At the moment I am honestly not sure. Seeing you take shots at Sheep has dissolved a fair chunk of my concern for your slot and the marked change in our conversations since the day-before means I think I need to take a step back and re-evaluate the situation.

My main concerns right now are the super casual and super convenient votes on my wagon from RedFlavor and Cy. However those slots voted pretty much at the same time and I am struggling to see a world where scum would be so careless. Well I guess it could happen if I greatly overestimate the scum players abilities but what do.

I'm also raising eyebrows at Momo because just about every single post he has made this game has been from another planet. I'm not even sure if that is AI.

Well I have a lot of work to do including this deep dive on Sheep so I guess I'll get to it.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #754 (isolation #73) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:16 am

I'm continuing the deep dive on Sheep - in response to Dino's question re tac-selfkill.

This post became pretty large and is probably relevant only to Dino, so I'm spoilering it. It's probably interesting reading for anybody who was curious about my self-vote speculation.

Spoiler:

I'm heading to bed and will be stuck on my phone for the next 20 or so hours so I will not be able to pay little more than read/update votes for that time frame.

However I promise you I will get you your answers within the next 72 hours.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #854 (isolation #74) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:41 pm

I don't really see it as a scum slip for the same reason I don't accept pretty much every 'townslip' that I see; context is easy to misrep or misread in a forum based game.

I do have some other thoughts that I will share in my next big catch up but I can't really do anything right now.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #861 (isolation #75) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:29 pm

In order to argue I'm scum, you need to argue that me being scum is consistent with some other pair being scum.

I just want to point out this is not strictly true - if the scum strategy is to fake-bus, then they'd be trying not to be picked as a team with anybody, or, if one of the scum teams is the kop/momo team, it'd be hard to draw associations against them due to their inactivity.

I'm surprised by the sudden votes for Dino. If they had come around 72 hours before now I might have accepted it as people agreeing with Diamond and my push however that timing window has well and truly passed. I'm interested in seeing Lalendra/Cy's responses to the situation.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #864 (isolation #76) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:53 am

I'm not seeing Red/Sheep at this point tbh either. I'm not sure if I actually ever saw that as a thing outside of them voting with Sheep at one point.

I do see Red/Cy as significantly more likely, with out of the two, Red probably the more scummy with the vote switch on to you and Hyung. I really didn't like that timing. What was Red waiting for? Red's been on the Cy wagon, the Diamond wagon, and now you (although there's no real wagon there, my feeling is that if this is a scum push, more votes will appear). I'm not really buying that Hyung thought he was seriously voting Cy and jumped off right away. I don't like that Red/Cy have been voting together and otherwise looking quite erratic. I'm not suggesting we lynch Red; if I'm right/you're right, the common element there is Cy/Lalendra, so we can both be satisfied with that flip.

Kop/Momo would be a policy: Lynch deadweight afk players. If we can't seem to agree on anything I think we can atleast consolidate there and no real harm is done to town, with a good shot of hitting lurkscum. Last resort however.

Sky/Diamond well you know my opinion on this ^__~ I think the case that we're scum with Cy hinges on the idea that Cy didn't get hammered at L-2 when our slot could have done it. The only other slot that could have done it iirc is Momo/Kop who was afk; and I think sheep had jumped off the wagon (presumably to hammer if range came in). So I do think this case is not as strong compared with the erratic votes.

Sky/Red - Not brought up but I think it bears mentioning because after Sky/Diamond made a big push on Dino, you would think if we were scum more players would have joined in on that. If we were buddies, Red should have responded way earlier when they voted us, and I can't see a realistic scenario where either Red or Cy would leave us within hammer range (Tora had made intent to hammer) if we were scum together.

~~
I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on townslip/scumslip because you love them and I don't rate it. However I think your other points have merit.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #869 (isolation #77) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:02 am

Again, I'm not trying to vote for what's easy, I'm trying to vote for what's scum.

Dino/Sheep think that you are scum buddies with my slot. From your perspective, which slot would Diamond/Sky be scum buddies with?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #877 (isolation #78) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:41 am

Dino asked for me to provide meta reason for Sheep/Tora being scum, here's the one on Sheep.

Please take a look at this and let me know your thoughts. I'll do Tora next.

TL/DR

I think Sheep's play this game has a lot more in common with their scum-meta than their town meta.
I have only seen one real town game and two real scum game from Sheep, and this setup seems to encourage idleness.

Summary:
Key differences between town!sheep and scum!sheep:
Town sheep directly engages with players and asks questions often. Feels like they're trying to solve the game.
Scum sheep talks a lot 'about' the game or 'about' players; mainly empty content posts that have the illusion of being involved.

The current game we're playing feels different from the other games played (doesn't feel intuitively like scum!sheep, doesn't feel intuitively like town!sheep) which is interesting; there's only been a month or so since they're last game and I wouldn't expect this big a change. Possible that their RL situation has changed and they're able to focus more.

Aggression this game is consistent with overall play and is non AI.

Main matches with scum game:
Hands out strong townreads early game - Dino, Cy (reversed Cy read later). Mutual townclear is not alignment indicative, it just seems that sheep hands out early townreads more frequently as scum.
A lot more high level meta posts/feeling of talking about the game/players instead of directly engaging with players.
Examples:
43
57
61
69
153
150
170
178
184
211
etc etc almost every post is empty content/filling up the thread with actual nothing until near the 700's when a vote for Diamond appears once a wagon has begun there.
Last post is commenting that Hyule posted but no actual feedback on anything Hyule has said.

Key difference between scum!Sheep and this game:
Scum sheep seems to care a lot more about the game and puts in more effort, especially when they or their buddies are under threat.

Details about examined games behind the spoiler.

Spoiler:

Generally a lot of town-looking posts. Sheep tried hard and cared a lot more in this game than in the other games I have read. Generally aggressive at the start, as the game went on became more passive and was mainly content to let the town do whatever it wanted, until it was near hammer when they appeared to be more active.
Handed out town reads very early on (mirrored with our game) on non-buddies, placed buddies as null read.[/spoiler]

Given time I can do this for all the players in the game but I prefer not to as it is a significant time investment and feels like cheating.

***

As I couldn't really get enough data points to fill in what feels like a concrete argument for sheep is scum, I can really only conclude that this game seems to have more in common with Sheep's scum game than their town game.

Dino, now that I have gone and done this, what are your thoughts? Do you think there is anything here?

@Diamond

we need to decide what we're going to do about this push on Cy and if we are both going to vote for it (or not).
I am not overly impressed with Cy/Lalendra. The fact that their voting seems to be tied at the hip with Red/Hyule concerns me. It's also very strange that...well, at the moment you could see it is a competing wagons between Dino and Cy. Presumably Cy/Lalendra would have a personal investment in wanting to persuade players who might be wanting to vote Dino (e.g you and I given we had been there for most of the day) to revote Dino because otherwise they'd be dead.
However this has not really eventuated.

So I guess I'll semi-address this to Cy/Lalendra: Are you guys voting Dino because you believe scum!Dino, or is it because you're trying to keep your head above water?

@Momo/Kop

I see you are still voting RedFlavor but I haven't really got any other meaningful interactions out of you to see what you think/feel. Can you please comment on some of the latest things e.g vote changes, and perhaps your thoughts on the whole Dino/Sky drama we had earlier?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #878 (isolation #79) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:48 am

I nearly forgot le Sheep.

Hey Sheep (and Torafriend) who are you currently scum reading right now? Examples/reasons?
Any townreads?
If you had the magical golden gun and could shoot one slot off the planet who would it be

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #881 (isolation #80) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:12 am

Sheep

nah i havent actually read the meta read wall but you basically cant meta read me for this my strategy is literally just to listen to dino pair/tor and do whatever and not actually try to find scum

Hypothetically if Dino were to vote you, what then?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #885 (isolation #81) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:27 am

Any of the votes could be potential bus. I'm interested that the vote went on Cy and not on you however. I would think that scum would be interested in eliminating any vocal member of town. Without a doubt your slot and mine are the most active. So it's not unreasonable to see a wagon on myself and one on you appear one after the other because scum wouldn't have the numbers to drive both at the same time. The wagon organically went back to a non-vocal member of town. I would...ordinarily expect a lurk player, regardless of their alignment, to do something when they were in hammer range. Since there's at least one (possibly three) other players who are in danger here, I'd expect more 'do somethings'.

So I'd like to leave Cy at L-1 and see what happens.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #886 (isolation #82) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:29 am

3 am what am I doing. Mafia is ruining my life. Goodnight all.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #888 (isolation #83) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:33 am

[05] DEADLINE LYNCH RULES: At deadline, a person will be lynched if they have a majority of voters voting for them. That means you can be lynched with just one vote if only one person is voting. If no one has a majority of the votes cast, it is a no-lynch.

If it runs to time there's a lynch.

If it runs to time though I'm probably replacing out.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #898 (isolation #84) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:14 pm

@Lalendra

I also saw Dino as scum specifically for this protection on Sheep however with the benefit of a few nights sleep and having gone through Sheep's meta, I realised the fallacy there: Sheep's behavior is NAI for Dino. If you're seeing Dino/Sheep scum because of Sheep's behavior, then the correct option is to vote Sheep, not Dino. My main source of frustration of the Dino slot has been their blanket handwave townclear of Sheep for nothing and I incorrectly attributed that to scum AI; town can be stubborn about their reads but it doesn't make them scum, even if their townread then flips scum. It just makes them wrong, not scum, and being wrong about a hardcore townread is absolutely a valid reason to suspect that player. But you need a flip on that first slot first because until then you are presuming guilt. You need to disassociate 'being wrong' from 'being scum' because, in Dino's mind, he is completely right that Sheep is town based on no evidence whatsoever, so you will never be able to convince him to take a deeper look. The other issue here is that Dino believes you and I are scum buddies because I didn't hammer you earlier in the phase. This gave you the opportunity to vote Dino (you had earlier hinted you were considering it) and yet you did not - you chose to vote me. You should have been aware that a large portion of the votes on my wagon were primarily because people believed we were scum partners and, presumably if you were town, the correct option would have been to vote your supposed scum read while Diamond and I were voting there. So I do have some valid misgivings about your slot at this time, even though the initial reason for my vote was to establish that we're clearly not scum buddies at this point.

IMO you would get more mileage out of trying to lynch sheep than Dino because I personally would prefer Dino in LYLO if we miss, than Sheep. That said, I would also prefer Dino in LYLO to every other slot in the game except mine, because Dino has been active and willing to engage/interact/actually make an effort to solve the game. I would agree that the Dino/Sheep matrix is the most compelling scum team but your play pattern is very similiar to Red's (largely afk except for block voting) and that actually looks like scum play.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #899 (isolation #85) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:30 pm

Also I will add that we are not actually obliged to find the entire four scum in order to satisfactorily vote. We also don't need to find both players in a slot scummy; we simply need to find one scum player. It would be convenient if the other player in that slot is scum read, just as it would be convenient if we could neatly match that slot to another, scummy slot. As humans we naturally want to solve the entire problem and walk away as done however the scum strategy is almost certainly to bus/hate on each other publically and then never commit when it matters (not really seeing this from anybody except arguably Dino/Sky, but we haven't had competing wagons until right now), or to super hard town clear each other from the get go and hate everybody who disagrees (Dino/Sheep strat).

I think...probably...Momo is a disinterested/confused player who doesn't really know what's going on and to me that is largely alignment non-indicative. That's my only null read at this point.

Otherwise from where I'm sitting I see two blocks: Dino/Sheep obv, and Red/Cy. The only players who don't really fit in blocks are Sky and Momo, so that is a third team that I would have expected to have emerged more credibly than a Sky/Cy team.

If we flip Cy and Cy is green, I'm more likely to want to push for a Sheep lynch than a Red/Momo lynch.
If we flip Sheep and sheep is green, I'm absolutely pushing for a Cy lynch. I'm giving an implicit town clear to Red if Dino is right about Sheep's alignment.
If we flip Momo and Momo is green, it doesn't help me pick between the two other blocks.

I'm not interested in lynching Red at this point because I think I can get significant alignment indications from lynching in one of those other two blocks.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #900 (isolation #86) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:32 pm

There is also a scenario where there is one scum in Dino/Sheep and one scum in Cy/Red. In this world, it's Dino/Red because Dino handed out locktown on Red iirc pretty early on, and it would be consistent with a scum!Dino IMO to hand out one town lock on a town player (Sheep in this view) and the scum partner (Red). However this is only really meaningful if Dino was then later bussing his town read (whichever one it was) and this has not really eventuated. So I'm discounting that team simply because it seems very unlikely.

If this is actually the case though I can't see any lynch today that would help me see it.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #901 (isolation #87) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:35 pm

@Dino

what lynch today makes you believe Sky!town? Earlier (Blade iirc) commented that a flip on Cy, even with my vote there, looks scummy. Interested by way of going into LYLO with some POE town locks.

To be clear I am not averse to the Cy lynch and I do expect Tora to come in here and announce intent to hammer (or actually hammer) pretty soon, I just want to float some ideas.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #905 (isolation #88) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:40 pm

eg when I look at my relationship chart I see that you-
Locktown Sheep
Locktown Red
Null on Momo
??? on Sky.

Looks like POE you will still want to lynch me even if Cy flips green, and I will probably want to lynch Sheep (because Hyrule slot would then be uninteresting).

cut

Edited for clarity:

Otherwise from where I'm sitting I see two blocks: Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora obv, and Red/Hyung/Cy/Lalendra. The only players who don't really fit in blocks are Sky/Diamond and Momo/Kop, so that is a third team that I would have expected to have emerged more credibly than a Sky/Diamond/Cy/Lalendra team.

If we flip Cy and Cy is green, I'm more likely to want to push for a Sheep lynch than a Red/Hyung OR Momo/Kop lynch.
If we flip Sheep and sheep is green, I'm absolutely pushing for a Cy lynch. I'm giving an implicit town clear to Red-slot if Dino is right about Sheep's alignment.
If we flip Momo and Momo is green, it doesn't help me pick between the two other blocks.

I'm not interested in lynching Red-slot at this point because I think I can get significant alignment indications from lynching in one of those other two blocks.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #906 (isolation #89) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:41 pm

The problem is the last thing. Red/hyung believe I'm scum independently of sheep/Tora, and in particular believe I'm scum with Kop/momo (or you/Diamond? I'm not really sure).

Oh I did miss this.

I feel that is signicant. Thinking.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #908 (isolation #90) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:51 pm

I can abide by that as reasonable teams from your perspective.

If I accept Dino as town and Red as town, and we flip Cy and Cy is green, AND I know my alignment as town, that leaves only Sheep/Tora/Momo/Kop.

Does this team look plausible?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #909 (isolation #91) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:54 pm

Momo votes - joined Cy wagon.
Semi-random vote mid-phase on Red.
Semi-random vote sheep after Sheep self vote.
Put Cy at L-1.

???

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #911 (isolation #92) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:00 pm

Dino (
Also someone who's doing legit scumhunting, please explain to me the scum motivation of Tora trying to town-clear the guy that his partner is voting for.

For context:
Sheep votes Momo
Tora townclears Momo

hmmmmm

Say his name, and he appears.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #912 (isolation #93) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:02 pm

So the scum motivation would be:
The slots are trying to disassociate from their scum-buddy slot.

Plausible?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #913 (isolation #94) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:13 pm

If we flip Cy and he is green, the only teams I see are Dino/Blade/Tora/Sheep and Tora/Sheep/Momo/Kop. I don't see Dino/Blade/Red/Hyrule as plausible. In this scenario, my preferred lynch is Sheep since they are the common denominator between the two teams, AND the meta analysis I performed earlier suggests they are more in line with their scum behavior than town behavior.

If we flip Sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red
Still don't see Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red as plausible.
Preferred lynch is Kop/Momo.

If we lynch Kop/Momo and they are green
Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora
Cy/Lalendra/Hyrule/Red
Both teams plausible, Sky/Diamond kingmaker but prior flip unhelpful. Probably a bad situation.

So I think our best choices from my view at this stage are the Cy/Lalendra flip, and possibly Sheep instead, by way of giving Sky/Diamond the same town read view on Red's slot as Dino.

Would be interested in Diamond/Dino/Blade thoughts on preferred lynches, as well as Cy/Lalendra, Hyrule/Red.

Please tell me your preferred lynch in LYLO presuming your current preferred lynch (Cy) flips green, or any other scenario that you think is interesting.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #915 (isolation #95) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:23 pm

cy/lalendra ; sheep/tora

That is interesting. Could you please clarify more about these reads?

Are there any players you are townreading? Who would you like to keep with you to LYLO?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #916 (isolation #96) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:36 pm

If we flip Sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red
Still don't see Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red as plausible.
Preferred lynch is Kop/Momo.

This is wrong - I forgot that Cy/Lalendra/Red/Hyrule exist in this scenario, so I would not arbitrarily lynch Momo.

If we lynch sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Cy/Lalendra - highly unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Cy/Lalendra - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red - possible

Common denominators in teams: Kop/Momo (covers Hyrule/Red and DinoBlade, lose if scum team is Dino/Cy. Could live in that world tbh)

If we lynch Cy and they are green
Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora - plausible.
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - highly unlikely
Sheep/Tora/Kop/Momo - plausible
Sheep/Tora/Hyrule/Red - unlikely

Common denominators in teams: Sheep/Tora (covers Dino/Blade and Sheep/Tora/Kop/Momo, lose if scum team is Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo or Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red).

I am probably committing to a lynch of Sheep if we flip Cy and he is green.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #918 (isolation #97) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:44 pm

I did it again lol. I think this is my internal comf bias that Sheep is scum.

If we lynch sheep and they are green;
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Cy/Lalendra - highly unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Cy/Lalendra - unlikely
Kop/Momo/Hyrule/Red - possible
Cy/Lalendra/Red/Hyrule - possible

Common denominators: Cy/Lalendra and Kop/Momo. Common denominator is Red BUT Dino will not vote and if Sheep is green, Red is probably green as well because Dino's TR therefore on point.
So my preferred lynch is probably Cy/Lalendra in LYLO.

If we lynch Cy and they are green
Dino/Blade/Sheep/Tora - plausible.
Dino/Blade/Kop/Momo - unlikely
Dino/Blade/Hyrule/Red - highly unlikely
Sheep/Tora/Kop/Momo - plausible
Sheep/Tora/Hyrule/Red - unlikely
Hyrule/Red/Kop/Momo - unlikely

Common denominator is still Sheep.

I'm probably satisfied with a lynch of Cy this phase since it advances my situation to apparently winnable in LYLO from my view.

cut

Could you at least consider the possibility that you/we are wrong and evaluate what happens next if you got your way?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #925 (isolation #98) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:18 pm

Diamond, do me a solid and please treat Dino like he is a smart person capable of rationale thinking, even when he is disagreeing with you/me.

Or better yet, try to sit in his shoes for a second and imagine what Dino's 'view' is like. He spent a good chunk of the game thinking that Cy is scum because we didn't hammer earlier, and we're in that exact same position now. The fact that every post isn't LOOK DIAMOND STILL HASN'T HAMMERED OBVSCUM!!!1111! counts well for him as a relaxed, town-motivated problem solver at this point. So let's treat him as one.

cut

I don't know how to deal with Hyrule at this point except to ask the mod to prod them until they replace out.

Which is a credible option given how little content they have.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #932 (isolation #99) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:47 pm

@Diamond
If the lynch on Cy goes through, won't have alignment information on Sheep. Presuming Cy flips green, where do you lynch?

I understand you want a sheep lynch this phase but I don't see any strategy for trying to actually make that happen. So I am interested in scenario's that are more likely to happen.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #934 (isolation #100) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:54 pm

@Mod

inactivity -
Kop has received two prods so far and is already over the 72 hour limit.
Request replacement for Kop.
Toranaga is in the 2-3 day category.
Request prod on Tora.
Hyung is 2 hours short of the 2-3 day category.
Request prod on Hyung.

Sky_Paladin · Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:28 pm

But it's really frustrating to see Dino my scumread devaluing my opinion on character-based grounds, and see people being okay with that and ignoring all the tells

So far all I've really seen from you is a vote on Dino based around a scumslip. After 30 pages of arguing with Dino I have him as town. So I really need to see something a bit more special than that to re-address that slip. That one thing isn't really enough to say 'all the tells', if you have some more, please feel free to share with the class.

I don't know Cy's alignment but I am incredibly suspicious of the way your slot and his slot vote/interact. So I would say there's a better than even chance that if flips red.

If I'm wrong, though? Well, the main reason I voted Cy to begin with was because a big source of the push against Diamond/myself was that we didn't hammer Cy when we had the chance. So I voted there to try and prove that we were willing to compromise/adjust the situation. In all honestly, I expected that we were going to be lynched before anything else happened. But then, something interesting happened. The Cy-wagon reformed, and then a Dino wagon emerged! How strange.

So you're right, when I voted Cy, I didn't vote him because I thought he was scum, I voted him for the strategic reason of

not me over me

. I know I'm town, and I don't know Cy's alignment, even if at the time I thought he was

probably

town.

From there the situation de-escalated somewhat (even though that's L-1) however this deadlock is interesting because it didn't appear when Sky/Diamond where at L-1, but it's appeared twice now on the Cy slot. So I think that bears reflecting on - it's unlikely that all the scum are on this wagon already, because there's likely to have been a hammer (part of the reason Dino/Blade believe in the Sky/Diamond/Cy/Lalendra team).

At this point in the game, I'm expecting Cy to flip red along with Lalendra, RedFlavor and Hyung. I don't believe there'll be a day 2, but if there is, all the players know where my slot is likely to vote (Sheep) in LYLO. I've made that clear because that impacts what scum have to do this phase to get through the game - if Sheep is red, then letting my slot through to LYLO is a danger.

If you believe otherwise I'd love to hear all about it.

Sky_Paladin · Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:38 pm

Cheer up. It's always darkest right before dawn #celestia

Sky_Paladin · Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:45 pm

Welllllll I think you are good at manufacturing 'gotcha' scenarios for whatever alignment you want - as soon as you get the result you need, you stop fishing unless something actually jumps into the boat. That is a bit too confirmation biasy for my liking.

I don't find it funny. I do find it odd that Hyung has more to say than either Cy or Lalendra given that Hyung isn't the one with votes.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:15 pm

The last vote count looked like this -

cytheflyguy (6) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino, sheepsaysmeep, Mathblade, momo
Mathdino (3) - hyung, RedFlavor, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - DiamondSentinel
DiamondSentinel (1) - cytheflyguy

Not Voting (1) - Kop

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

With around 10 RL days left on the clock. So that is plenty of time for Cy/Lalendra to convince us why we should vote for somebody else if they wanted to.

Diamond, calling people bad won't convince them to shift their votes. We spent the first part of the game trying to get through the dino wall and it didn't work so why would it work now.

Like I'm not against a sheep lynch but look at the votes. Cy hasn't even voted to defend themselves, and the natural push for Sheep over Cy hasn't come up given your vote is already there.

It looks a lot like Cy/Lalendra have just checked out of the game.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:25 pm

This is not the first time Cy/Lalendra have been within hammer range and they just afk'd it out. The only reason they didn't die then was because you and I stuck our neck out pushing for Dino, because we couldn't get sheep, and became the target ourselves.

However instead of just laying down to die and afk out, we showed signs of life/defended our votes hard/assessed reads etc etc, basically, all things town players do when they have votes on them that they know to be wrong and that some of those votes are scum.

Cy/Lalendra has all the hallmarks of scum just silently waiting for a new wagon to suddenly appear that will save them.

cut

I have posted quite a bit in my own defense, and tried to do some scumhunting as well. I am happy to answer any outstanding questions or provide information, but as I recall no one has asked me anything.

I don't remember you posting anything?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #970 (isolation #106) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:01 pm

@Lalendra

Your last 'scumhunting' post you have in that wall is when the vote tally looked like this -

DiamondSentinel (4) - sheepsaysmeep, cytheflyguy, Mathblade, RedFlavor
cytheflyguy (3) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino
sheepsaysmeep (2) - DiamondSentinel, momo
momo (1) - Lalendra

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

Right now, the tally looks like this

cytheflyguy (6) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino, sheepsaysmeep, Mathblade, momo
Mathdino (3) - hyung, RedFlavor, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - DiamondSentinel
DiamondSentinel (1) - cytheflyguy

Not Voting (1) - Kop

Your stated reason for getting on the Mathdino wagon was because of a scumslip that Hyung brought up.

So when I say "I don't remember you posting anything?" it's because I don't remember you bringing anything new to the table.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #972 (isolation #107) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:09 pm

sheep/Blue team doesn't make sense btw because that team could pretty easily get on my/Red's good side and speedlynch either Mop or Math.

Could you please comment further on this?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #979 (isolation #108) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:38 pm

Thank you. I wanted clarification because I couldn't understand the context in these teams -

that team could pretty easily get on my/Red's good side and speedlynch either Mop or Math.

I was trying to work out how you meant blue/sheep could possibly get a lynch on Math after we'd gotten on your goodside, surely you wouldn't vote for Math - my first thought was 'Did Dino just scumslip that he's not actually partners with Blade, surely I am mistaken'.

Your explanation checks out so I'll go back to my quiet corner for now and watch to see what Lalendra does.

CUT BY LALENDRA well there goes my quiet time.

OK Lalendra. Assume Dino is scum. Who is his scumslot partner?

If you flipped either Dino or the other slot and they come up green, who is your lynch in LYLO?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #981 (isolation #109) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:39 pm

You did mention something about thinking about voting Dino the first time the Cy wagon emerged and around the time Diamond/Sky pushed Math over Sheep iirc. Why didn't you join in then?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #985 (isolation #110) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:56 pm

Well I think there is a difference between going 'Hey, could you explain what you meant here?' and going 'OMG SCUMSLIP' so I thought well, is this it, the holy grail of scumslips that I see before me?

This thing, I don't believe in?

but

So I asked to clarify and, once again, I did not believe in a lie.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #986 (isolation #111) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:56 pm

...........................that is supposed to be the "I want to believe" meme image but apparently I failed to meme :/

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #989 (isolation #112) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:08 pm

In all seriousness though.

Lalendra; the reason I am interested in your opinion in what you would do if Math flips green is because I want to disassociate your feelings from your strategy, because I am interested in your strategy, aka, how you will win the game. When I see your strategy it helps me to know your alignment.

I'm no stranger to feelings, I raged for the first half of the game at Dino and Sheep over it. But when feelings influence your behavior then the strategy is hard to see and when it's murky and unclear it is hard to see benevolence.

Somewhere in my prior posts I listed off the groups that I could see - there was Dino/Sheep team, and Cy/Red teams. To me these are likely scumclumps. I also saw a third possible Kop/Sheep team.

Aside from my previous metadive that showed sheep has more inline with their scum game, they're in two of my three preferred scumteam picks, so sheep is one of my preferred lynches.

But what if I was wrong about sheep? Hypothetically a sheep wagon could emerge, eg if all of you on Dino switched to Sheep, and you know that I want to lynch sheep - suddenly that's six votes, and you just need to persuade one of the Kop/Momo pair to hammer. If you were serious, it would be E-Z. But then shock, sheep flips green. Here we are in LYLO. What do you do?

It's not acceptable to then auto-vote Dino (or sheep) if Sheep (or Dino) flips green, because a big chunk of your reads and bias is saying that they must be scum together. So when you get the new evidence that says that at least one of them is not scum, that invalidates your position. That means your strategy for LYLO is to just guess, and just guessing is not good enough, because scum can manipulate guesses and feelings.

So to cut a long story short.

We flip Dino and he's green. Who is your pick in LYLO? Hint - it can't be sheep.
We flip Sheep and he's green. Who is your pick in LYLO? Hint - it can't be Dino.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #991 (isolation #113) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:14 pm

Momo and Kop *with who*?

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:19 pm

Otherwise it reads “help! Cy is my buddy”.

This is not really true. Cy has been at L-1 for quite a long time, with my vote there, with both Kop and Naga having posted in the thread and able to hammer at any time. The argument that Cy/Sky is the scum team doesn't really hold any water.

I think you could potentially argue that we're scum and therefore know that Cy is town and are unwilling to hammer, but if you believe that, you need to move your vote.

Your alternate option is to consider that our slot is simply town and Diamond is angry that your slot/sheep aren't doing what he wants to and he is unwilling to budge on this.

However it ultimately doesn't matter. The game will lynch even if there is no hammer (see rules) but I'd rather not wait nine days.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:43 pm

Tora is already voting

Oh, so he is. I've missed that this whole time and been waiting for him to come in and hammer.

So it's Diamond or Kop, who came in just to proddodge, and now we're waiting another 72 hours ugh.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:48 pm

Welllllllllll that does make Math's view a bit clearer. I thought there was three options for a hammer but there's really only one.

Diamond, I think we need you to hammer and have a big satisfying I TOLD YOU SO if Cy flips green.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:55 pm

Diamond literally just threatened Kop into not hammering.

To be fair there is no indication that Kop is even aware of this.

I'm actually pretty annoyed that Kop literally came in just to prod dodge and vanished again. Hello, InactionDan? Siiiuuuuugh.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:11 pm

Oh boy

There is scum slips

and then there is scum claim

How exciting

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:12 pm

I'm going to presume Cy has more to say because at the moment my understanding is that he just claimed scum.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:15 pm

MathDino: Cy is scum because lack of hammer.
LaLendra: No you are wrong.
MathBlade: Lalendra is wrong.
Cytheflyguy: Lalendra is wrong.

profit

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:16 pm

Please let it be real this time. I mean I know the guy is at L-1 but I've never in my life had an actual scum slip

but this one

could it be

This is it, Vanhoover!

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:22 pm

I wish you hadn't done it right now when Cy actually is online but well here we are, so good job.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:23 pm

LYLO

if it's not game over - please make sure not to be stupid and vote right out of the gate. Two wrong votes on the same player and scum can quickhammer for gg.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:43 pm

Please feel free to open our topic up.

Congrats town, good job MathDino for sticking to your guns, and well done Diamond for going against your heart and making the hammer anyway.

Sky_Paladin · Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:46 pm

I have to run off for a few hours but will look forward to the post game chat, especially now that cooler heads can prevail.

Sky_Paladin · Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:17 pm

I guess that's a no?