Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over


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Post Post #708 (isolation #200) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:02 am

Post by Mathdino »

Self thought progression checks out.

Tora townslip is forgetting who his lover was and then forgetting who other people's lovers are. Also buddying up to me should be a major red flag/thing-to-avoid as scum.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #201) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:05 am

Post by Mathdino »

Importantly, Tora referred to it as a townslip and then realised his mistake by checking
the thread (Llama's replacement)
, not his PM.

So I need evidence that Tora has done brazen shit like that as scum. Risky moves.

- Forgetting things about the setup that he should know as scum
- Calling himself locktown
- Buddying up to someone by literally refusing to lynch them
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Post Post #710 (isolation #202) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:12 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 25, Toranaga wrote:random lynch GOAT

also I'm lovers with someone I forgot which makes me lock town

also never lynching amrochora even if she is a wolf
Calling himself locktown, not lynching my slot. Scum can just say "I forgot my lover" but the progression is important here. The fact that he doesn't realise that scum can "forget their lover" is even more evidence this is a genuine townslip.
In post 26, Toranaga wrote:
In post 14, LlamaFluff wrote:
sheepsaysmeep replaces jzhenson93
ah ok it was literally this guy

hi sheep
Timestamped 2 minutes after (which likely means less than 2 minutes elapsed). I don't believe this is the time that Tora takes to check his role PM, pick someone to pick his "lover", and then go to the thread and find Llama replacing him.
In post 29, Toranaga wrote:neither of us wrote anything in our PT lol

taking your posts at face value as well and locking you as town this game :thumbsup:

let's lynch someone that isn't the 4 of us

/in before the 4 of us is the mafia team
Lol.
In post 31, Toranaga wrote:I'm only now reading the game properly, and for some reason I thought you were lovers with pisskop :P just realised you're the replacement and lovers with amrochora.

I thought we should all claim, because then you can read one or both heads of a lover claim as scummy and that's where you wanna lynch.
Doesn't understand my pair at all. Didn't realise Amro/me was the pair previously.

Also, Tora clearly understands the logic behind scum picking their lovers. Keep in mind that scum should ideally pick lovers such that a townish scum is paired with scummy scum, rather than pairing 2 scummy scum together.

Tora has played with sheep before. It makes no sense that Tora, REGARDLESS OF WHO THE MAFIA IS, would go ahead and pick sheep of all people as his "lover". This is the way to getting lynched.
In post 35, Toranaga wrote:LOL

there's a good chance both amrochora and manrock forgot all about this game

it's too bad, I like playing with them

also I believe you too. game highly POE'd down already imo
More crazy buddying.

Upon reread, the only questionable thing I think is the reference to manrock, which leads credence to the idea of sheep/Tora/Red/manrock.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #203) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:23 am

Post by Mathdino »

@sheep
@Tora
@Red

Questions for all of you.

1. Did you agree/understand when I presented the random lynch idea that it statistically benefits town?

2. If you were scum, would you go with an idea that produces a 40% winrate for you?

3. Did you at the beginning of the game believe that the rest of the town might agree to a random lynch?

For RedFlavor:
4. In , when you said I should roll the dice, did you understand that I was suggesting sheep roll the dice?

Edit: Read RedFlavor's ISO. I'm not sure it's consistent with sheep!scum.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #204) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:26 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 712, DiamondSentinel wrote:Alright math. You have a possible team. If you are truly as open to me being town as you suggest you are, then let's pursue sheep/tora/red/manrock as a team. I don't remember anything noteworthy from the latter two, but the former 2 are hitting some red flags.
I'm not there yet. First glance suggests the 4 but second glance strongly suggests against it. I'm not doing the "Math comes up with an idea and Diamond Jedi-mind-tricks him into thinking it's the best idea". I still need convincing.

Once the 3 of them respond to my questions I'll explain my hesitance on that specific team of 4.

Also read my Tora towncase.
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Post Post #716 (isolation #205) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:29 am

Post by Mathdino »

Also, potential townslips are only not townslips if scum would intentionally do them to make it seem like a townslip. My first scumgame I pretended to not realise daytalk wasn't a thing and got locked as town. I can never do that again. (Hilariously, it was multiball and I just got shot by the other team anyway)

@Tora
: While you're here, respond to my questions and also explain your townread on Red/manrock. I need reconvincing.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #206) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:34 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 705, DiamondSentinel wrote:Welp, if I die here, I'm gonna assume it's auto-lose for town. I've seen nothing to the contrary to suggest that the town isn't going to let scum lead them straight off a cliff.
wait lol this is scum
town would be more interested in last words and directing tomorrow's lynch
but anyway

@Tora:


1. So you only semi-agreed to it ("random lynch GOAT") as a reaction test? Did you intend to lynch cytheflyguy when you sheeped sheep? Also did you even believe I believed it :lol:

2. I don't know what not giving a fuck as scum entails. Like not caring if we random lynch?

3. I meant on the 2nd page, not the beginning, sorry. Did you, after I suggested the random lynch idea, think town might actually agree to it?

Lord do I agree this is an awful setup.

Edit: no sheep fuck you please answer in complete sentences or you're getting lynched one of these days
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Post Post #722 (isolation #207) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:38 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 721, sheepsaysmeep wrote:1) yeah i did agree
2) yeah i would go with it
3) yeah i did think that

shit those arent complete sentences
1. And you agreed before I suggested that you be the one to roll the dice, right? Like you thought I would roll the dice?

2. So you, as scum, would let me roll the dice knowing it would give you a maybe 30-40% winrate? What?

3. k thx

Bonus: Nice grammar knowledge, those are actually complete sentences.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #208) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

STOP SPAMPOSTING

and i'm ignoring punctuation, but don't even respond to this post honestly

Edit:
@Mod, request action spamposts e.g. "pagetop".
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Post Post #728 (isolation #209) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:43 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 724, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
In post 722, Mathdino wrote:2. So you, as scum, would let me roll the dice knowing it would give you a maybe 30-40% winrate? What?
arguing against it would be a scumclaim for me
i cant come up with good reasons
So you're saying that, as potential scum, you thought the town would coalesce against my random lynch idea (due to force of personality I guess) and would go along with it so you wouldn't end up getting lynched for not agreeing to it?

Would you continue agreeing to it if it became clear that the town didn't like it?

Keep in mind I'm only asking what scum-you would do in this situation.

Edit: ok fair
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Post Post #739 (isolation #210) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:19 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I see no value in self-voting as town tbh. Aren't you interested in who else is willing to vote you?

Also I made that comment to Tora, underneath a Tora quote. I at no point meta'd you. You seem like the type of player who's able to just do what you'd do as town anyway. Same with Diamond. I only meta players when looking for a specific behaviour that I suspect could be different.

Also lol at how this pair is completely falling apart. If they actually chose to be "partners" with each other as scum, bad decision xD

For the record, Diamond, I read everything you're doing much more as flailing than what Sky's doing :lol: . Sky's been nonstop townposting for a while now. Problem is I can't townread that shit because of course he's gonna do what's necessary to be townread when there's a lot of pressure (sorry Sky).
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Post Post #744 (isolation #211) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:42 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Mathblade, I don't know about you but this is weirdly working on me. Diamond's self-meta is correct. I'm having trouble figuring out who Dia/Sky are scum with if not cy/Lalendra.

I honestly really want that to be the scumteam because "La/cy in the Sky with DiamondS" is fucking perfect.

VOTE: cytheflyguy

So yeah gimme thoughts. I also need thoughts on sheep/Tora's responses ASAP. And when you're on I wanna talk about the sheep/Tora/Red theory.

Sky, besides that team (for which I'm seeing both tells for and against), what team are you gunning for?
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Post Post #749 (isolation #212) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Lol I thought of the scumteam name from the moment I saw you guys were paired.
In post 747, Sky_Paladin wrote:My main concerns right now are the super casual and super convenient votes on my wagon from RedFlavor and Cy. However those slots voted pretty much at the same time and I am struggling to see a world where scum would be so careless. Well I guess it could happen if I greatly overestimate the scum players abilities but what do.

I'm also raising eyebrows at Momo because just about every single post he has made this game has been from another planet. I'm not even sure if that is AI.
I also have thoughts on Red/cy/Lalendra that I can't get to quite yet.

momo is weird. I think we can assume that sheep/Tora/momo/Kop aren't the team because sheep was actively trying to strongarm people into that speedlynch. He had no reason to believe that wagon wouldn't take off.
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Post Post #752 (isolation #213) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:38 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 742, Sky_Paladin wrote:Late the-day-before when I was salty I was thinking about a tactical modkill to force LYLO this dayphase but I felt that was a bit dirty. But the thought of "Is there some way that I can show I am prepared to kill myself to save the game" stuck with me and then I considered, there is no reality where scum would deliberately put themselves at L-1 with some players willing to vote and at least one threatening to hammer.

Whether that is actually a real/good thing to do is something I'd have to put more thought into before ever committing to it because anybody can go 'Self vote is a scum vote' and hammer, and that would be non AI and therefore useless in LYLO.
You know what, fuck it, I'm willing to believe this actually.

@Sky:
Please explain exactly when in the day you were considering tactically modkilling yourself, and how you planned to do so.

So in terms of my working-with-these-guys perspective (as in they're not scum), here are the scumteams I'm thinking of:
Lal/cy + Kop/momo: Kop/momo never voted Lal/cy despite giving lip service to my ideas and my alignment. Counter is that Lalendra pounced on Kop/momo after the non-scumslip, and it was conceivable that they'd get speedlynched.

Lal/cy + Red: No comment yet.

Kop/momo + Red: The ultimate "I don't give a fuck about this game" team. Weird that Kop/momo didn't help out tho.

sheep/Tora + Red: Also no comment.

Teams I'm explicitly not thinking of:
sheep/Tora + Lal/cy: sheep could easily have voted someone else and I'd have sheeped him earlier.

sheep/Tora + Kop/momo: Jumped too hard on the "scumslip".

sheep/Tora + Sky/Diamond: This very obviously makes no sense from the sheep/Tora angle. Sky/Diamond on the other hand would likely bus.
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Post Post #755 (isolation #214) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:20 am

Post by Mathdino »

It's enough.
I'd like Mathblade to read it
.
Like, it's pretty good. Paranoia says that I would kick my own ass if I changed my reads later based on some defence but it's obviously more beneficial to work together for now. If you're scum I'm more interested in catching your partnerpair I think.

Keep in mind I'm more invested in my townread of Tora. "Sheep sheep" was my motto because sheep was the only one hanging around doing anything (and was the first one to vote). This might've created the impression that I was strongly townreading sheep when it was more of a townlean on sheep informed by my townread of Tora. But do what you will.
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Post Post #757 (isolation #215) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:26 am

Post by Mathdino »

Independently, sheep is a townlean. Tora read is stronger and thus overpowers sheep.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #216) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:33 am

Post by Mathdino »

Jesus fuck this game is all replacements
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Post Post #763 (isolation #217) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:50 am

Post by Mathdino »

so sheep is town or someone has to argue to me that he would fake that or do that as scum

honestly can we just quicklynch cy/Lalendra to get this game going

it's clearly Sky/Diamond's most likely partner and at the very least their death helps with that
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Post Post #765 (isolation #218) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:03 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 750, LlamaFluff wrote:DiamondSentinel (4) - sheepsaysmeep, cytheflyguy, Mathblade, RedFlavor
cytheflyguy (3) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino
Sad!
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Post Post #766 (isolation #219) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:04 am

Post by Mathdino »

WAIT RED YOU NEED TO ANSWER MY QUESTIONS
here

full sentences/explanations please
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Post Post #769 (isolation #220) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 768, Toranaga wrote:
In post 765, Mathdino wrote:
In post 750, LlamaFluff wrote:DiamondSentinel (4) - sheepsaysmeep, cytheflyguy, Mathblade, RedFlavor
cytheflyguy (3) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin, Mathdino
Sad!
even wagonomics agree cy is a better lynch imo
I don't care if Ben Bernanke himself replaces sheep's ass, I just want to play mafia not Wagonomics Wonderland
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Post Post #772 (isolation #221) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:33 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 771, Toranaga wrote:redflavor is on diamond which makes 4 different lover pair possibilities on DS

IDT bussing in this game works
bussing in this setup is how every mafia team has won
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Post Post #778 (isolation #222) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:18 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 681, Lalendra wrote:
In post 666, Mathdino wrote:I asked her for a Last Will set of reads and she completely ignored it
wait, you did? When?
In post 399, Mathdino wrote:
In post 398, Lalendra wrote:
In post 397, Mathdino wrote:Hey I mean you were doing pretty well when you argued that we should just arbitrarily lynch someone else
I'm just bummed because I was really excited for this game and now I feel like I'm going to get lynched D1 through no fault of my own.
I don't know how good I can be at pep talking you since I'm obviously the cause of all this, and I'm sorry you're bummed regardless of your alignment. It's a sucky position to be in and I can understand how me playing to win can suck the enjoyment out of your game.

But here's what I was thinking: If we arbitrarily vote on D2 based on sheeping someone we think is town (Sheep/Tora) we do in fact run the risk of just having Sheep/Tora be scum.

If you and cy flip, you're certainly town, which means you're completely unbiased.

I believe that everyone's reads are basically arbitrary because scumhunting is hard in this setup.

But if you don't believe that, you can always push for someone to be lynched on D2. Gives you something to do :]
This was my way of soft-asking for you to give us a road map for D2. The fact that Sky is so concerned with the game after his death (and the fact that sheep/Tora genuinely don't seem to want this to continue after D1) imply town. You giving up upon being the clearly most popular wagon is highly concerning.
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Post Post #779 (isolation #223) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:09 pm

Post by Mathdino »

A plea: The faster we end this game, the faster I can change my sig to add that cytheflyguy quote, and the faster we can all join a better game.
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Post Post #781 (isolation #224) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:13 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 780, sheepsaysmeep wrote:yeah i need to free up some time can we just thunderdome two lynches
why not just one...
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Post Post #784 (isolation #225) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:25 pm

Post by Mathdino »

So because I was your top townread, you'd have been cool with me dice tagging up 2 lynches for the 70% (assuming I'm town) winrate? And you'd have been less cool with sheep doing it even though that's what I was pushing?
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Post Post #785 (isolation #226) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:28 pm

Post by Mathdino »

And, to be clear, you'd have followed me in that situation (assuming I rolled up someone other than you obviously)?

Also can we L-1 cytheflyguy?
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Post Post #787 (isolation #227) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

brb gonna go write a lolcase on cytheflyguy/Lalendra
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Post Post #791 (isolation #228) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah everyone's claimed.

Math/Math
La/cy
Sky with DiamondS
Red/hyung
momo/Kop
sheep/Tora

The key here is that Math/Math is town and sheep/Tora is town, so if you're town, it's probably Lalendra and cy.

Also have you read lol?

Edit: He's at L-2 I'm pretty sure.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #229) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Hey Red, couple things.

You said that you agreed and understood my random lynch argument but then on I think you started saying that, as scum, you'd take those odds.

Also the way you said you wanted me to roll the dice seemed super sarcastic, was it?

Lastly, what would you have done if I rolled the dice and they fell on you?
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Post Post #795 (isolation #230) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:43 pm

Post by Mathdino »

oh shit fuck i'm sorry that was L-1
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Post Post #799 (isolation #231) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:46 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Tbh this was potentially one of the worst "first games" on this site you could've joined, the mechanics are way non-standard.

Hope you stick around and join a newbie game or something. Replacing into something like this sucks.

Edit: You know Mathblade is my partner, right?
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Post Post #801 (isolation #232) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Do you understand why I did it?

I don't see how ethics are involved here.
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Post Post #803 (isolation #233) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:51 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 802, hyung wrote:If you're town, yeah. If you're scum you could have easily coordinated that. Either way the way it was presented comes off as a dick move to everyone in the game.
Gotcha. So you're suggesting that right before I said that, I could've posted in the mafia thread and been like "Yo Mathblade I'm gonna pretend to prank you, react please"?
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Post Post #806 (isolation #234) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:53 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 794, LlamaFluff wrote:cytheflyguy (6) -
Toranaga
,
Sky_Paladin
,
Mathdino
,
sheepsaysmeep
,
Mathblade
,
hyung
Just so we're clear, 2 full pairs are on this wagon. Math/Math is on it because... you'll probably have to read the thread for that one honestly. Sky is on it because we were about to lynch him instead. sheep/Tora are on it because they agree with arbitrary lynching and are sheeping me who sheeped their original random vote. Red I assume was also sheeping me.
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Post Post #807 (isolation #235) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:55 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 805, hyung wrote:I don't have a read on you yet because I want to think you're Mafia, but your cocky attitude could just be putting me off. But just because you tried to paint it as a town test or something, doesn't mean Mafia don't have the same motivations.
No, answer my question please.

Are you saying that Mafia-me went and told Mathblade in our scum topic, "Hey, I'm gonna act like I'm town testing you, so pretend not to know wtf I'm talking about when I say that you and I aren't paired together"
?
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Post Post #812 (isolation #236) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Don't worry about reading the whole game right this second. It'd be nice if you could answer my questions tipsy anyway. If you're town I'll be able to tell pretty easy.

Edit: Red, I've fucked up votecounts before. I went back to the votecount and saw cytheflyguy at 3 votes, then saw Mathblade and hyung switch. Figured it'd be 5 votes.

Edit: Hyung, I need you to answer this, it's important. Is that a yes?
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Post Post #815 (isolation #237) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

JESUS CHRIST IM TRYING TO PROVE YOU'RE TOWN

Please. Answer my question straight up. Holy fuck. I'll explain after. If you're town you have absolutely 0 to be afraid of for answering a question.
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Post Post #816 (isolation #238) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:01 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You know Mathblade and I both replaced into this game, correct?
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Post Post #817 (isolation #239) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:02 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I don't care if you keep your vote on me, we can get a lynch without you. I'm trying to make sure that, if you're town, you don't get mislynched tomorrow if this flips town.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #240) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I don't give a shit if you think I'm mafia for a test.

Why didn't you just answer my questions immediately?

Also, have you played forum mafia before?
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Post Post #824 (isolation #241) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 818, hyung wrote:Actually according to the role PMs, the Mafia topic is
also closed on Day 1
... so scratch that.
Okay you know what this is good enough for me. RedFlavor and hyung are town. I just won a game using this gambit to locktown someone. Literally the only time I've ever seen it fail is when I myself faked this townslip in my first scumgame. But that took experience that this guy lacks.

So if Lalendra/cytheflyguy are scum, they're partners with one of:
Sky/Diamond: The OG pairing. Sky is on this wagon out of self preservation. Diamond is not. If Sky believes we won't get the votes, it's sensible to pretend to bus, so I can't rule this out.

sheep/Tora: This would be really fuckin weird honestly. They've shown 0 indication that they believe this wagon will die out.

Kop/momo: This makes a lot of sense. The only evidence against it is that Lalendra jumped on momo after the "scumslip".


Then if this flips town... the pair consists of 4 of the above 3 pairs. Which is really uncomfortable. I'm honestly not seeing any of those pairs except maybe Sky/Diamond/Kop/momo, which I think matches up with the PT conversations. Then it's gonna be a question of getting the votes for that.

Edit: I haven't read the above 4 or so posts
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Post Post #829 (isolation #242) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 820, hyung wrote:...You were totally trying to "prove" I was town based on not seeing the Mafia role PM until now, right? Lol.

Side note for everyone, I absolutely think Mathdino as Mafia would try to look town by leading this, as another really shallow "test".
Hell, dude, maybe I would. Are you seriously doubting that the test works though? Do you want me to link you to the game I just won using it? I pull this shit on newbies everywhere.

At what point did you realise mafia don't have daytalk?
In post 821, RedFlavor wrote:I voted diamond because I was lazy and I said I would follow dino because he wanted 60% chance for us
But I realized he didnt really want that
He voted cy first, then voted diamond, then voted cy again. What Im thinking is he realized if they lynch cy first immediately , at day2 everyone will suspect him and then he voted diamond.

I need to check few things about dino/diamond/sky interactions
cytheflyguy was the original lynch, and Sky/Diamond were the ones holding that up. I was afraid that we wouldn't have the votes tomorrow to even win (cuz you need the entire town to lynch scum). When Sky started working with me, cytheflyguy became the clear option again.
In post 822, hyung wrote:
In post 819, Mathdino wrote:I don't give a shit if you think I'm mafia for a test.

Why didn't you just answer my questions immediately?

Also, have you played forum mafia before?
1. What a good answer

2. I answered it like 3 times, look again

3. Twice but I'm more used to chat mafia. The ability to express myself over a longer period of time is definitely helpful here, but I'm not sold on the number of pages.
Good answer to what? You didn't ask me a question.
I needed you to be very very clear. Either you thought that I planned this out pregame, or you thought I planned it out midgame when Mathblade replaced in. The difference is essential.
Gotcha, okay. Yeah don't replace into games if pagecount is your issue. We run much smaller/slower games here too. Point of the question was, however: Can scum talk during the day wherever you're from?
In post 823, hyung wrote:Yeah yesterday I was almost ready to vote them just because you did too and I didn't want to think too hard, but then I was too lazy/busy to login haha.
Okay so this is more town.
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Post Post #835 (isolation #243) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Read this, and then into the next page.

You guys are basing your whole shit around "Mathdino punks people, and only scum would do that".

First of all, I would absolutely never intentionally create a lolhammer scenario, and furthermore, doing so is exactly how to get lynched.

Second of all, reaction tests and gambits like that are like 90% of how I create strong townreads.

Don't be the VI pair. We're literally gonna be unable to lynch cy without members from every town pair.

If you honest to god after everything that happened think I'm scum, figure out which pair you think I'm lovers with and we'll see if we can compromise. Kop/momo was actually my thought for tomorrow's lynch, since scum isn't you guys and it isn't sheep/Tora.
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Post Post #844 (isolation #244) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:29 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 830, RedFlavor wrote:Btw I dont understand the thing about bold part
The point is that he said "mafia PT is also closed" implying that he was in a town lover's PT that is closed.
In post 831, hyung wrote:...This only proves that cy is Mafia's mislynch of choice for Day One
The fuck? Who do you think I'm mafia with? cy was some random vote originally that came out of page 1.
In post 828, hyung wrote:As in really long arguments? If just Dino did that I would say they could both be Mafia pairs, but I don't think I have a good enough read on Sky/Diamond's personalities yet. (Meaning I absolutely think Dino is the type to overexert themselves as Mafia and be, for lack of a nicer term, a tryhard)
What do you think you know about what type of player I am?
How do you think you can come to that kind of conclusion without going and finding out?
In post 832, RedFlavor wrote:Yes they had long arguments and dino is still saying he scumreads that pair
You're literally not reading.
Don't give me this shit. Go read if you wanna make a case.
In post 833, hyung wrote:
In post 830, RedFlavor wrote:Btw I dont understand the thing about bold part
Yeah I think Dino was already determined to come to the conclusion I was town, so that they could reap the rewards from their "analysis". Nothing about my post is a townslip.
Look dude, fuck that. My thought was actually that if cytheflyguy flips town, that your pair was the most likely out of any to be scum. I was fishing for both townslips and scumslips. The way Red answered my questions brought me to a townlean, and I wanted to confirm that.

So yeah, I guess you could say I wanted to come to the conclusion you're town.

Here's a question: Do you really think I needed the towncred right now from a reaction test? Like, do you think I thought "Oh gee I'm gonna have a problem winning this game without confirming Red/hyung as town and reaping the credit"?

Edit: Utterly insane.
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Post Post #846 (isolation #245) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 840, hyung wrote:Guys Mathdino just admitted he knows cy is a mislynch. If he really thought cy was Mafia, there wouldn't be a tomorrow.
You're not reading. I think in worst case scenarios. I've been trying to come up with scenarios for what happens if cy flips town for the past few pages.

You guys don't even have the patience to go read the game and you think you've caught scum from one page of interacting with the only guy who's even here.

Read. The. Game.
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Post Post #849 (isolation #246) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:34 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 845, hyung wrote:Not reading that when we've already won lol

You had a good run it's okay to admit defeat.
What exactly are you gonna do if we lose because of this?

Please don't tell me you're gonna blame me.

Edit: NO, FUCKING READ THE GAME
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Post Post #851 (isolation #247) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:35 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 835, Mathdino wrote:If you honest to god after everything that happened think I'm scum, figure out which pair you think I'm lovers with and we'll see if we can compromise. Kop/momo was actually my thought for tomorrow's lynch, since scum isn't you guys and it isn't sheep/Tora.
You missed the real quote btw.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #248) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:38 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Who exactly are you planning to lynch tomorrow if you actually manage to lynch me?

Restate your entire case on me please.
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Post Post #855 (isolation #249) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:41 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 634, LlamaFluff wrote:
Vote Count

DiamondSentinel (5) - sheepsaysmeep, cytheflyguy, Mathdino, Mathblade, RedFlavor
Mathdino (2) - Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel
cytheflyguy (1) - Toranaga
RedFlavor (1) - momo
momo (1) - Lalendra

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

Kop has been prodded

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)
also not like this happened or anything

but you wouldn't know that because you didn't read the game

read or replace out
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Post Post #856 (isolation #250) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In order to argue I'm scum, you need to argue that me being scum is consistent with some other pair being scum.

For example, I realised that sheep/Tora as scum doesn't make sense paired with most other pairs, and so they're more likely to be town.

Give me a possible pairing, assuming you actually think that was a scumslip.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #251) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:56 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 861, Sky_Paladin wrote:
In order to argue I'm scum, you need to argue that me being scum is consistent with some other pair being scum.
I just want to point out this is not strictly true - if the scum strategy is to fake-bus, then they'd be trying not to be picked as a team with anybody, or, if one of the scum teams is the kop/momo team, it'd be hard to draw associations against them due to their inactivity.

I'm surprised by the sudden votes for Dino. If they had come around 72 hours before now I might have accepted it as people agreeing with Diamond and my push however that timing window has well and truly passed. I'm interested in seeing Lalendra/Cy's responses to the situation.
You're taking my argument too far. All I'm telling them is they need to come up with possible partners for me, and if they can't, then the case makes no sense. Sure, it could be scum-me's strategy to fake-bus, but then they need to propose the scenario in which I do.

The sudden votes were, in my understanding,
1. Because I fucked up the VC (it looks like I didn't notice sheep's vote) and they think that I would try to trick someone into hammering (because this ever works).

2. Because I keep punking people to reaction test them and that's
wrong
. hyung seems to think that me trying to clear him as town makes me scum, which is hilarious and, if he knew shit about me, is basically null.

3. Because of a nonsensical scumslip on the levels of "THAT GUY JUST SAID THERE ARE 3 MAFIA, HOW'S HE KNOW THAT" or "HOW DOES THIS GUY KNOW THAT GUY IS TOWN". I think literally all the times I've ever been lynched in my career were as town because I started assuming things that I didn't know.
What they don't realise about me is that I don't scumslip as scum (unless it's multiball which I suck at). A large portion of my scumhunting/townhunting is based on instigating and classifying mistakes and slips. I'm
hyperaware
of that shit as scum. I once-over and rewrite my posts (it's a flaw in my scumgame tbh).
Unfortunately it looks like they're pretty fucking disinterested in reading the game (which honestly warrants replacement) or meta-diving me for this kind of thing.

Honestly fuck a setup that only takes one townteam not playing ball in order to ruin town's majority. With 12 players, that should absolutely never happen.
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Post Post #863 (isolation #252) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:02 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh by the way now that RedFlavor answered my questions Sky, I'm willing to talk about the sheep/Tora/Red idea.

I don't think it makes sense. RedFlavor knew that to get on my good side, he had to propose sheep roll the dice. Instead he unironically suggested I do it, which has a high chance of hitting him. I also believe him when he says that he thought town might go along with it. It makes it absolutely stupid of him to take a 30% winrate upon me rolling the dice.

I'm not sure about RedFlavor and other scumteams. RedFlavor with other teams:

Lalendra/cy: It's possible that by the time the cy wagon started up, Red realised that there was too much pushback against my idea that the cy lynch wouldn't actually go through. This is consistent with them dodging the hammer. Honestly this team would be ideal because it means that we don't need either pair to get majority. I'm not sure it makes too much sense though. Red could've easily been like "nah I don't townread sheep like Math does, I'm not sheeping that".

Kop/momo: I don't think they were even active at the same time, so I guess this is possible. This just makes Kop/momo the ideal lynch tomorrow if they could be partners with everyone honestly.

Sky/Diamond: Weirdly, this is consistent, and is only inconsistent with the fact that I'm townreading too many people in this team.

All that said, Red's responses and hyung's reaction ("HEY FUCK YOU FOR TRYING TO PROVE IM TOWN, I COULDVE BEEN SCUM YOU IDIOT" instead of just faking a slip and taking the cred) strongly make me believe in Red/hyung locktown.

Need thoughts on this, Sky.
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Post Post #873 (isolation #253) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 867, cytheflyguy wrote:Is this based off experience? I've played a game before (finished now), where there was a scum who was drunk posting.
It is, yeah. He also restated his theories well even while drunk.

hyung was also drunkposting IIRC and answered questions well. Unfortunately it sounds like he's a paranoid drunk.
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Post Post #874 (isolation #254) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:28 am

Post by Mathdino »

@Mod: Request prods on momo and Kop.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #255) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:15 am

Post by Mathdino »

My concern right now is primarily political. If Red/hyung are town, as I'm pretty sure of (MATHBLADE BACK ME UP HERE), and we get this lynch wrong, we're fucked tomorrow.

@Sky: I read through this, thanks. I do think the fact that I basically bombed the thread with economics and "scumhunting is bad" logic, and sheep having seen me in other games probably actually sheeped me. It doesn't look to me like there's another pair that he's unwilling to lynch except my hydra. Tora iirc was unwilling to lynch the RedFlavor hydra, so that's one possible connection, but it's broken by pages 1 & 2.

It's a pretty case and all but it's far from conclusive. If you were to meta-dive me you'd find that I'm obviously not playing to my meta at all either. I think the people that have bought into the "this setup is fucked" mentality are much less likely to play to their meta than the people trying to keep this a normal game (Diamond).

The lynchpin of my towncase on them is Tora. That and a valid sheep partner, who I have yet to see.

Edit: Yeah that's an important question. Also momo is totally potentially bussing right?
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Post Post #887 (isolation #256) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:31 am

Post by Mathdino »

Idk I'd be pretty okay with the hammer.

The wiki literally states that scum strategy is to run each other up to L-1 and muddle any possible associations.

If they're paired with Kop/momo, their survival banks on Red/hyung and Diamond continuing to tunnel me, because they otherwise won't get the votes.
If paired with Red/hyung, then yeah we can totally get the votes we just need Kop or Diamond to do it.
If paired with sheep/Tora, then sheep/Tora are committing suicide by committing to this lynch.
If paired with you/Diamond, then you just need Red/hyung to keep tunneling and for Kop to not hammer.
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Post Post #897 (isolation #257) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:52 am

Post by Mathdino »

Caveat: Dice lynch only really works if you're town.
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Post Post #902 (isolation #258) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:35 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 899, Sky_Paladin wrote:Otherwise from where I'm sitting I see two blocks: Dino/Sheep obv, and Red/Cy. The only players who don't really fit in blocks are Sky and Momo, so that is a third team that I would have expected to have emerged more credibly than a Sky/Cy team.

If we flip Cy and Cy is green, I'm more likely to want to push for a Sheep lynch than a Red/Momo lynch.
If we flip Sheep and sheep is green, I'm absolutely pushing for a Cy lynch. I'm giving an implicit town clear to Red if Dino is right about Sheep's alignment.
If we flip Momo and Momo is green, it doesn't help me pick between the two other blocks.

I'm not interested in lynching Red at this point because I think I can get significant alignment indications from lynching in one of those other two blocks.
You have a few errors but I get the idea. These are largely fair picks.

The problem is the last thing. Red/hyung believe I'm scum independently of sheep/Tora, and in particular believe I'm scum with Kop/momo (or you/Diamond? I'm not really sure).

I'm pretty fucking sure they're town, and that means if we get this day wrong, LyLo will wreck us.

And I'm also lowkey done with them due to frustration with pants-on-head-tunneling. inb4 hyung is a derpy alt

So you deal with them so we don't insta-lose in LyLo.

Edit: uh gimme a sec
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Post Post #903 (isolation #259) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Sky I think you're majorly fucking up the pairs to the point where I can't understand your posts.

Can you EBWOP them all?

The pairs are:
Math/Math
Red/hyung
sheep/Tora
Sky/Diamond
Kop/momo
Lal/cy

In descending order of towniness in my opinion.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #260) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:41 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 901, Sky_Paladin wrote:
@Dino
what lynch today makes you believe Sky!town? Earlier (Blade iirc) commented that a flip on Cy, even with my vote there, looks scummy. Interested by way of going into LYLO with some POE town locks.

To be clear I am not averse to the Cy lynch and I do expect Tora to come in here and announce intent to hammer (or actually hammer) pretty soon, I just want to float some ideas.
cytheflyguy/Lalendra townflip would make me almost believe Sky!town.

After that, Kop/momo/Sky/Diamond is actually my new top scumteam. Maybe Kop/momo/sheep/Tora.
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Post Post #920 (isolation #261) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:05 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Okay using shorthand.
Math/Math = Math
sheep/Tora = sheep (cuz let's be honest Tora's gone)
Red/hyung = Red
Sky/Diamond = Blue (avatar)
cy/Lalendra = Lacy
Kop = momo = Mop

Literally going through every pairing:
sheep/Red: Bad. Red threw away the opportunity for his partner to roll.
sheep/Blue: Really weird but I guess possible if all partners were smart enough to bus.
sheep/Lacy: Probably impossible.
sheep/Mop: Possible only if sheep going after Mop's "scumslip" was a calculated bus. sheep was pretty deadset on that. Tora on the other hand was not.
Red/Blue: Possible, are basically the historically anti-Math/anti-sheep teams.
Red/Lacy: Requires Red bussing and then being like "NEVER MIND". Not unlikely.
Red/Mop: No associations. Possible.
Blue/Lacy: My scumteam of choice. Still not hammering.
Blue/Mop: Consistent with PT fuckups. Likely.
Lacy/Mop: 2nd scumteam of choice. Requires momo calculated bus.

Assuming we lynch Lacy:
sheep/Red: Highly unlikely.
sheep/Blue: Worst case scenario for me. Unlikely by reads.
sheep/Mop: No change from D1. Weird that Mop didn't hammer Lacy.
Red/Blue: The anti-me/sheep set. No comment.
Red/Mop: The lurkers. Possible.
Blue/Mop: Blue setting up non-Mop lynch tomorrow. Likely.

Literally haven't read Sky's analysis so doing that now.
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Post Post #922 (isolation #262) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

No scum motivation if sheep/Mop aren't the pair.

SHITTONS of scum motivation if the 4 of them are together.

Thanks for the extra evidence of Tora-town unless Kop/momo is scum.

Edit: What? I literally just said I haven't read your team's analysis yet. I'm trying not to be biased or drown in the notation.
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Post Post #923 (isolation #263) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 908, Sky_Paladin wrote:I can abide by that as reasonable teams from your perspective.

If I accept Dino as town and Red as town, and we flip Cy and Cy is green, AND I know my alignment as town, that leaves only Sheep/Tora/Momo/Kop.

Does this team look plausible?
Yeah, it does.
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Post Post #924 (isolation #264) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:15 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Okay so if Math/Blue are all town, then our agreed scumteam is clearly sheep/Mop.

The problem is I don't trust you guys and thus have Blue/Mop in my list.

And you don't trust me so you have sheep/Math in your list.

I would argue that Red/Mop is actually possible and thus you should agree to lynch Mop. But I guess it depends on how overwhelming your sheep/Math scumread is.

FURTHERMORE, we're absolutely utterly fucked if Red doesn't budge from their "scumslip"/punking-based scumread of me because that negates our ability to get a majority.

So I still need someone to deal with that.
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Post Post #926 (isolation #265) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:20 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Be on in 5 hours then and we can request another prod. I'll probably be there.

Request prod on Kop
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Post Post #927 (isolation #266) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 925, Sky_Paladin wrote:Diamond, do me a solid and please treat Dino like he is a smart person capable of rationale thinking, even when he is disagreeing with you/me.
Btw this is very good advice for getting me to townread you guys when you're scum, so I support this!
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Post Post #929 (isolation #267) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

That one's not a townslip. That's just forgetting about the setup. Also I think Diamond meant "if sheep is town".
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Post Post #933 (isolation #268) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:03 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 931, RedFlavor wrote:Id be okay with lynching math or mop/sheep (Im not sure about latter but im leaning on sheep scum)
restate your case on me
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Post Post #936 (isolation #269) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:20 pm

Post by Mathdino »

inb4
In post 925, Sky_Paladin wrote:LOOK DIAMOND STILL HASN'T HAMMERED OBVSCUM!!!1111!
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Post Post #940 (isolation #270) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 938, hyung wrote:Lastly I can see how Dino's post could be interpreted other than a scumslip. But more likely than not, it was a scumslip - I don't think Dino expected pressure like that when I came in, and slipped up while trying to regain control of the situation
What experience do you have with scumslips?

Cuz I can give you maybe a dozen examples of how and why they don't happen except in very specific circumstances.

THAT's the problem I have with you. You come in here talking about how you don't understand the setup and this is your first game onsite, fine.

But then you don't read the game and base the entirety of your reads on me saying a thing. And apparently now you're basing it off of people lining up lynches, which is a thing EVERYONE does.

And the thing is, we (or at least I) have seen so many players like you lose it for town because you base your whole game around one thing and then don't know how to reevaluate. Or you blame it on everyone else.

Point is, stop acting like you're hot shit and can step into the game for one page and figure everything out. Every interaction and everything I do is just more confbias for you. This isn't a game of winning the debate, this is a game of actually figuring shit out.

Edit: Dude. Diamond literally invalidated that due to a typo like a few posts after.
Conclusion:
YOU'RE NOT FUCKING PAYING ATTENTION.


I literally don't think I've ever seen a player like you win games by doing this shit.
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Post Post #941 (isolation #271) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:12 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 937, hyung wrote:It's so easy for Mafia to justify their mislynch choices as a way for town to get more information. Whoever on that wagon is actually town should be continuing to look for an actual Mafia lynch
The fuck?

Did you miss all the conversations where we decided cy IS scum??? wait don't answer that

Hilariously, I'm guessing if you read this whole game, you'd see some kind of "scumslip" from everyone. Lalendra in particular tbh.

He's on the brink so now we're discussing before he dies what's gonna happen after.

BECAUSE MAYBE
JUST MAYBE
YOU DON'T ASSUME THE GAME WILL END AFTER YOU LYNCH YOUR SCUMREAD

Do you at all understand how it's smarter to act as if there'll still be scum out there?
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Post Post #943 (isolation #272) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Honestly I always believe there'll be a D2. I commonly make an ass out of myself in twilight by making reads as if the guy I just lynched will flip town.

I'm so incredibly pessimistic with this setup given that we're apparently now lynching non-arbitrarily that I kinda just expect to lose. #nihilism #cestlavie
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Post Post #944 (isolation #273) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:34 pm

Post by Mathdino »

EBWOP: Honestly I always believe that D1 lynches are gonna be on town.
Because this setup's mechanics are obviously not applicable to other games
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Post Post #946 (isolation #274) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Thoughts on me catching hyung in a notpayingattentionslip?

The victimization is also fucking hilarious given that this entire fiasco started with me trying to prove he was town.
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Post Post #948 (isolation #275) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:54 pm

Post by Mathdino »

It's what's worked for me in the past. I get flak about it until it wins games. Honestly I've only ever created one type of 'gotcha' scenario for scum (to my knowledge; if Mop is scum that makes two). I haven't played that card here yet. Outside of that I don't think I've ever caught a scumslip. Been wrong about a few in the past and then just stopped using them.

Townslips are MUCH more my thing. I don't think I've ever been wrong about a townslip. I don't use them on clearly experienced players though because good scum can fake them. But yeah, I've got a whole bag of tricks for them tbh.

When you say it's too confbiasy, are you questioning my alignment or my playstyle?

I would argue that sheep/Tora SOFTtownslipped. Forgetting the setup is a towntell more often than not.

But Red/hyung definitely HARDtownslipped. They now beat sheep/Tora in my reads list.

It's less about the result I need and more about the one I want? My best plays are forcing my biggest scumreads to townslip. They usually hate me until they realise what I'm doing.
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Post Post #956 (isolation #276) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:04 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 953, DiamondSentinel wrote:
In post 951, Kop wrote:is it hammer time?
You hammer this, and if they flip green, I will 100% powerlynch you tomorrow, reads be damned.
You're doing amazing at keeping this guy alive tbh.

Are we legit just waiting on Mathblade?
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Post Post #958 (isolation #277) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Waiting to see if cy gets lynched is like waiting to see if Ross and Rachel get together
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Post Post #963 (isolation #278) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:46 pm

Post by Mathdino »

We have a political problem going on. Have you been reading?

I haven't seen any comment from you since before I gave sheep, Tora, and Red that questionnaire a while back.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #279) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Honestly the self ISO is just reminding me of all the reasons I'm scumreading you.

You're still not scumhunting.
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Post Post #967 (isolation #280) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:55 pm

Post by Mathdino »

is like you're talking yourself into paranoia and suspecting us. It barely reads like an actual scumread, it's just "Well, a lot of people are voting me, how do I know they're not scum? It would make sense if they were!"

I'm not gonna give you a road map on what to do. But it obviously doesn't help me if I'm looking for guidance from you if/after you flip town and we need a 2nd lynch. This lack of willingness to work together is part of why I'm at this point locked in on lynching you.

Idk how much you've been following the game, but like, idk, do what Sky did when he was run up if you really wanna contribute.
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Post Post #969 (isolation #281) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Okay, so from your perspective, and assuming I'm town, who the hell are sheep/Tora buddies with?
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Post Post #971 (isolation #282) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:03 pm

Post by Mathdino »

sheep/Blue team doesn't make sense btw because that team could pretty easily get on my/Red's good side and speedlynch either Mop or Math.

sheep/Red doesn't make sense because Red repeatedly threw away the opportunity to kingmake sheep.

You see where I'm going with this Lalendra?
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Post Post #976 (isolation #283) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:16 pm

Post by Mathdino »

@Sky: Yeah. If you 4 are scum there are multiple avenues you could've taken to win that you haven't yet.

1. That 4-man team has me pretty well pocketed by now. Holding off on the lynch on cy/Lalendra holds no utility when you could just get me to lynch Mop tomorrow.

2. You could also lynch cy/Lalendra, encourage Red/hyung on the "scumslip" angle and then get me lynched tomorrow.

3. You could also have just let me kingmake sheep.

4. You could also have helped sheep in going after Mop a long time ago for the "scumslip" thing and then just have me lynch cy tomorrow.

5. If Blue is suspecting Math/sheep as their scumteam of choice, they're playing pretty weirdly by framing sheep as a better lynch than Math.
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Post Post #982 (isolation #284) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Lalendra that's literally a lie. NAI because I'm pretty convinced you're just not paying attention.
In post 81, Lalendra wrote:Hi all! Happy New year. Finally got a chance to read and I'm confirming my lover is cy. This is the first time I have played this setup, but as of right now, I'm not getting the best vibes from math. He seems way too eager to peg the ones who followed his early lead on claiming lovers as town. That said, I don't really think that those who claimed after he proposed this approach are the other two scum, because it would be too obvious. I think they were townies who were following his lead. I know it's been said already, but it really feels like the random lynch approach is icky; seems like an easy way to mislynch and then say "oh well, better luck next time." We can't afford that. He even says that if he were confirmed town he would still choose randomly, but I don't believe that's true. The "I know this is scummy but we should do it anyway" just feels like backpedaling. Also not a huge fan of the overly-aggressive "follow the townbloc/sheep me cuz I'm obvtown" tone of his posts thus far. (And before he tries to say this is OMGUS, I feel that I have plenty of reasons for my vote, whereas his is completely arbitrary.)

VOTE: MathDino
First mention of Mathscum, literally says the other people on that page (sheep/Tora) are probably town just following me around. This is after I started pushing sheep's cy vote.
In post 511, Lalendra wrote:I'm not going to pretend to understand your math fully, but if there are 4 people on the wagon, how do i know that all four of you aren't scum, and the ones not jumping on the wagon aren't town? You could be scum taking a power town approach and espousing the random approach to look neutral. That would make sheep your scum buddy and makes it make sense that you are passively throwing shade at anyone not voting us and low key pressuring people to sheep your vote for town cred. Honestly that all makes so much sense that i would feel like i had the whole game figured out if it wasn't for how much i still don't like momo's slip or his response to it.
And this is the first time that you actually suggested Math/sheep. You were more than a clear lynch option at this point.
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Post Post #984 (isolation #285) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I never said that's why you're a lynch option. You claimed that your Math/Math/sheep/Tora theory predates your wagon's seriousness. I'm telling you you're wrong and are continuing to contribute nothing.

And earlier I was literally asking you to assume I'm town. Who would you be scumreading if you were in my shoes?

On another note, Sky blatantly fishing for scumslips after claiming repeatedly that he doesn't believe in slips strongly indicates hypocritical/doesn't-know-wtf-he's-doing town. Pretty solid on Sky/Diamond-town, I would REALLY like it for Diamond to hammer because I'm pretty sure Kop's not going to now that Diamond threatened him.
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Post Post #992 (isolation #286) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:16 pm

Post by Mathdino »

The fact that Sky isn't as bloodthirsty for the hammer as I am likely means Blue is town if Lacy flips town.

But seriously, I don't think Lalendra has been present enough to give a workable roadmap for tomorrow. Lynch prevents Llama from having to replace cytheflyguy.
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Post Post #994 (isolation #287) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Mathblade please comment on me and Sky sitting in the thread together listing out all the possible scumteams and what makes sense or not.
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #288) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:22 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 998, MathBlade wrote:
In post 994, Mathdino wrote:Mathblade please comment on me and Sky sitting in the thread together listing out all the possible scumteams and what makes sense or not.
Okay. I feel it is spam.

Cy is scum because of the lack of hammer.

I am at work. If in the absolute extreme case cy flips green then worlds matter. Right now it just doesn’t and there is no evidence to the contrary.

As I said before either you should be voting cy or explaining why cy is town to you.
Are you confident enough such that you'd be willing to do the "lynch me if I'm wrong" thing? Because if Red/hyung doesn't back down from us, it looks like we might get just one shot at this.
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Post Post #1003 (isolation #289) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 1001, Lalendra wrote:
In post 998, MathBlade wrote:Cy is scum because of the lack of hammer.
I still think that you're discounting the possibility of "town won't hammer because if they do Dino will deathtunnel them" when it comes to the lack of hammer. We can't afford deathtunnels on D2 because two mislynches means scum win.
why the fuck would i ask people to hammer and then deathtunnel them for doing just that

hilariously, red's entire case against me is that he thinks i was trying to trick him into hammering
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Post Post #1009 (isolation #290) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

People on the lynch wagon:
Math team, sheep team, momo, Sky
People not on the lynch wagon:
Red team, Kop, Diamond

Why are people not hammering cy?


If cy is scum:


Red team: Either scum with Lacy or are too deep in tunnel mode on me.

Kop: Either momo is purposefully flirting with death and they're scum with Lacy, or Kop has completely fucking checked out of the game too hard to hammer.

Diamond: Either this is an elaborate play by Sky to ultimately break up the Math/sheep townbloc today, or Diamond is just being a stubborn ass.

If cy is town:


Red team: Honestly this lowkey clears them. They're probably just in tunnel mode.

Kop: Doesn't want to get speedlynched tomorrow for hammering (thanks Diamond).

Diamond: Is holding out for more towncred, or just being a stubborn ass.


I don't really know why I wrote this up. Just had the idea of weighing scenarios in my mind.
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Post Post #1011 (isolation #291) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You're welcome <3
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Post Post #1012 (isolation #292) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:53 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In fact, your presence this entire game has been extraordinarily flattering. It's a wonder you get lynched as town so much when you have such charisma! :lol:
In post 921, DiamondSentinel wrote:Math, are you even reading? [this was, ironically, a complete misreading of what my point was]

1. No PT fuckups.
2. "setting up non-Mop lynch tomorrow" Mop is literally my most likely lynch if sheep is scum.
In post 741, DiamondSentinel wrote:Whatever. I'm kinda done dealing with this.
When/if you lynch me, I hope for your sake you're scum, or else you need to never play mafia again
, considering you're making up reasons to lynch me, and are now going back and forth on your reads on me and your partner.
In post 736, DiamondSentinel wrote:Read (as much as it pains me) The Mod is Mafia. That was my exact sentiment there,
kiddo
. Don't act like you can case me like you can everyone else on-site. I'm convinced that a town that would mislynch me is just laying down and letting the mafia walk all over them.
In post 669, DiamondSentinel wrote:It's a gut read,
kiddo
. Just like I've got you in a gut-town read, despite everything, she's in the same boat right here.
In post 663, DiamondSentinel wrote:In other news,
Sky, stop fucking wagon hopping. It's hard enough for me to deal with this wagon without you floundering
here and there.

(Oh, also, Math,
would you stop sucking at reading me
? This is 3 games in a row you've misread me completely)
In post 661, DiamondSentinel wrote:Kindly don't lynch me while I'm asleep.
Bitch move
. And the rest of the town, if someone does hammer me overnight, please lynch them with fire tomorrow. kthanks
In post 620, DiamondSentinel wrote:2.
Have some good sportsmanship, kiddo
. Random lynching isn't sportsmanlike. It's just boring. See: Most every other post I made on the topic.
In post 322, DiamondSentinel wrote:1. Try to actually scumhunt. Don't rely on slips or whatever. Slips
never
actually happen. Not almost never.
Never
. Additionally, stop trying to think this through logically. Mafia is a social game. Social interactions, are by their very nature, illogical. Rather, rely on your gut to determine who is scum and who is not. Your subconscious is a lot better at discerning people's nature than your conscious brain. That's why I'm still wishy washy about my vote on you.
I can't tell if you're just ick town, or truly scum.


2. Just because someone's playstyle doesn't strictly align with yours does not make them scum.
I detest your playstyle, and how you insist on relying on logic alone
, completely removing the social aspect from the game, and it seems that you feel similarly about my playstyle. That's fine. You can refuse to align yourself with my playstyle, and I am going to do the same anyways. Relying on private topics for inconsistencies or scumslips just
doesn't work
. So I refuse to take part in it.
In post 313, DiamondSentinel wrote:I'm done playing your games, Dino.
I thought you were just dumbass town
, but now I'm convinced that you're scum grasping at whatever straws you can get.
In post 137, DiamondSentinel wrote:
Now shut the fuck up
about random lynching and actually play the game. If you want to rando-lynch,
go to fucking Vegas
.
In post 87, DiamondSentinel wrote:I'm not discrediting you. It's just that if I wanted to just go with sheer randomness, I'd go to Vegas. The mentality that "they disagree with me so they must be scum" is
absolutely fucking stupid
, and for someone who's played mafia as long as you have
to say that is absolutely pathetic.


Also, when you addressed my partner with the whole "They bus when applicable" thing, scum do that in every game. Welcome to the game of mafia, kiddo.
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Post Post #1013 (isolation #293) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:54 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Is "kiddo" your catchphrase? How old even are you?
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #294) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:26 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I think it entirely holds water. I haven't been shoving it down people's throats because it's kind of derivative and honestly I expected him to be hammered by now. But yeah, if this wagon loses steam I'm gonna be EXTREMELY worried about Lacy/Blue. This is the ideal theatric for you guys to play to shake off that suspicion. To some extent, I'm defending against what I think I'd do as scum.

Tora is already voting. Kop isn't paying attention. Red/hyung are tunneling us.

Diamond is really the only option for hammerer tbh.
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Post Post #1021 (isolation #295) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

@Diamond: I fundamentally disagree with that and the literature of previous games in which scum DID bus at L-1 (and also the fact that
the wiki literally advises scum to bus each other up to L-1
) completely proves my point. You're acting like scum is full of idiots.

I'm not making a case for Lacy/Red. I'm, to some extent, townreading Red. Honestly the fact that they jumped the fuck off the Lacy wagon is the only thing implying scum to me (scum with Lacy).

I think Lacy/Mop is far more likely. momo's not playing his town game, Kop is useless, Lalendra doesn't seem to give a shit if she's lynched (or give a shit about advising town on scumhunting after her lynch), and cy is AWOL after a major LAMIST performance early on, which strongly appealed to you because it was basically "Shut the fuck up about random lynches, Mathdino, and let's get the game going", and then proceeded to not participate in the game.

Also what? When have I pressured people to read cy over Lalendra? My whole argument for a long time has been on Lalendra.

You're so weirdly deep in tunnel mode that you're missing shittons of details (which my ISO is practically a catalogue of at this point), are rigid in what you consider scummy ("well, sheep/Dino are locktowning each other, so I guess scum in this setup don't vote each other"), and are doing literally nothing to convince anyone else of YOUR case. Because look at you, you're always right, and if anyone suspects you for being shit at town, they must be shitheads or scum.
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Post Post #1022 (isolation #296) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Does anyone want me to provide evidence of scum running each other up to L-1 in order to win this setup?


I mean if you have an ounce of imagination for scum plays you'd see it, but if you don't, I'm happy to appeal to the empiricists in the bunch. That goes to Mathblade too, who seems to think scum won't vote each other.
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #297) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

It's more about the fact that if he doesn't flip I'm going to be forever paranoid of a master Lalendra/cy/Sky/Diamond play.

Like, sure, Sky sure looks like he wants someone to hammer cy, but scum!Sky also knows his partner won't hammer, and Diamond literally just threatened Kop into not hammering.

I can't really continue with this without that flip. I'll totally accept an I TOLD YOU SO since this wagon started from complete arbitrariness.
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #298) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:59 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 951, Kop wrote:is it hammer time?
furthermore, this is also exactly what scum who doesn't actually intend to bus would say
because everyone's gonna shout at him "NO DONT HAMMER YET"
which gives him an out for not hammering
and hoping that the extended day redirects the lynch

kop should've been replaced imo
the fact that you can't policy lynch in this setup is ludicrous, mixed with the lax activity expectations
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #299) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:07 pm

Post by Mathdino »

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA WHAT A GOOD POST
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Post Post #1031 (isolation #300) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:13 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I'm not seeing it.
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Post Post #1034 (isolation #301) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Lalendra argued that town isn't hammering because they're afraid of me deathtunneling whomever does hammer.

I agree that she's objectively wrong and isn't paying attention. That in itself doesn't make her scum.

Edit: Dude he's scum but that's not a scumslip.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #302) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Cool, good to see you guys are town.

Edit: Tell that to Red/hyung tbh.
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #303) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 1035, DiamondSentinel wrote:But before the day ends, Math, you realize that your little scheme has more holes than a wiffleball made of swiss cheese, right? Me holding the wagon at a standstill by threatening people to not hammer doesn't help scum!me. There will be a plurality lynch at deadline anyways, so stalling the wagon flat out doesn't work.

Also, I'm hammering it because a. not hammering won't fix a thing with sheep being scum and you acting like a child with their fingers in their ears like "la la la I can't hear you", and b. Partially just because I feel like proving you wrong that I wouldn't flippantly vote and that I won't hammer.
1. You didn't ask to see the evidence that I offered, so I will take that as a concession to my argument that
SCUM CAN BUS
. I ask myself what I'd do as scum in this setup in various scenarios, and what you guys have done is very similar to what I think I'd have done as scum with Lacy. I often play to catch behaviours that I'd expect from scum-me.

2. If your best theory is me being scum with sheep, then
no shit I'm not going to listen to you.
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Post Post #1050 (isolation #304) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:43 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Red did in fact bus cy for a very long time, Diamond.

I can give receipts if you like.

This setup should be decommissioned imo.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #305) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

TFW ARBITRARY LYNCH WORKED BTW

NEVER LYNCH ON SCUMHUNTING WOOOOOOOO

Honestly I started purposefully trying to come up with reasons for cy/Lalendra scum. I was deadset on that arbitrary lynch from the start.

And my sheep/Tora read was awesome.
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Post Post #1055 (isolation #306) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:46 pm

Post by Mathdino »

If random lynch utterly breaks this setup (and kingmaker random lynch likely FURTHER breaks the setup) to a >60% winrate, I can't say I'm a huge fan.
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Post Post #1058 (isolation #307) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Also like I said, the lack of ability to mislynch coupled with the fact that even a single town "hydra" not playing ball completely ruins the game makes this incredibly scumsided if you don't lynch arbitrarily.
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Post Post #1059 (isolation #308) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

And lol at hyung's horrible attempt to derail the lynch by calling everything I do a scumslip.

I'm glad he's not town. Would've had a lot of problems with him if he were.
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #309) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:52 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You should see the shitshows that other players did with this game.

If any of you guys wanna keep talking postgame about everything I was talking about (I think a couple of you wanted to), I'm down.

Scum's best strategy is to strongly imply that they'd be completely okay with lynching each other. In this case, they gave up too soon to capitalise on it. I expect had they organised something like that, it would've fooled everyone except me (who knows scum would do that and wanted to lynch arbitrarily) and maybe a couple others.

The fact that this is their best strategy means scumhunting is utterly broken here.

I've never played a game like I've played this game, and I'd hope people don't expect that from me in the future :lol:

If I see a breaking strategy, I'll tunnel it to the end of time, but otherwise, I'm a pretty normal player for this site.
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #310) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:55 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Sky was MVP for towning it way the fuck up under pressure, dropping his tunnel vision, and coming together on a correct lynch.

If I had to pick scum MVP it'd probably be RedFlavor, who obvtowned at the beginning. But honestly, my earlier theory was correct I think: town only wins from non-arbitrary lynches if scum plays very very poorly.

Edit: yo you were scumreading me foo'
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Post Post #1067 (isolation #311) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:56 pm

Post by Mathdino »

OH YEAH AND ONE MORE THING

Townblocs are almost never filled with scum :lol:

Tora and I locktowning each other at the beginning pretty much made it game over for scum. Our voting power was equal to that of scum.

I think if this setup is run again, and towns decide not to arbitrarily lynch, I would strongly advise future towns to townhunt over scumhunt. PoE is much more valuable than weirdass associations.
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #312) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:57 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 358, RedFlavor wrote:VOTE: cytheflyguy

Let's go!
As requested.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #313) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Honestly the lack of daytalk was a huge blow to my interest in this game too.
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #314) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Haha, NSG, any thoughts you had over the course of it?

Diamond I'm interested to hear the other flaws you think it has.

In particular I want to address the particularly low town winrate, and how town only seems to win when scum are straight up not present or are bad. The last 2 town wins had AWOL scum IIRC (early mastina and someone else).
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Post Post #1077 (isolation #315) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:18 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Tora had the best reads for sure. I often interpret overly aggressive/nonsensical behaviour toward me as town, unfortunately.

I'd like to think we actually would still have been able to win in LyLo had we lynched like Kop/momo or something. Red/hyung being scum would've helped a LOT (meant we could still have majority).
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Post Post #1078 (isolation #316) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:20 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 433, hyung wrote:If you're asking about the person I replaced, all they said was that they were gonna hit a lot of posts but I'm guessing that never happened. Not claiming my Lover or their stuff yet though.

I'll be back later, at work right now and just wanted to check in.
I really should've been scumreading this by my own logic, tbh. Made me feel weird but I was compelled to go easy on him (and I was townreading Red).

hyung's lack of answer for "What did your lover post" was also a major issue. But "not claiming my lover yet" is all sorts of nope.
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Post Post #1080 (isolation #317) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:26 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I heavily object to sheep/Tora being impossible to read. I didn't appreciate his style, but there were methods by which I was able to townread them both.

But yeah, 6p games are shit if activity/commitment expectations aren't met/enforced. It's hard for me to even count this as a win because

A. We basically won because of sheep's random vote. I literally would not have pushed cy if not for that.
B. I sheeped sheep in the first place because of a 70% breaking strategy, which is lame.
C. This game was utterly ruined by half the players not even being here,
which was partially due to me filling up the thread with the strategy that won us the game in the end anyway
.

I can definitely see why Lalendra and cy gave up.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #318) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:21 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 1086, momo wrote:
@mod...you are the open list mod...pls make sure that this isn’t or doesn’t become an approved open setup....Def not balanced and def not a setup I would play again...not because of you though -_-
I second this, although one detail is that I think the long deadline served to depress us a bit.

The ironic thing is that it's super scumsided if people lynch on scumreads, but it's super townsided if you just play Economics Wonderland.
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #319) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:26 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I would also point out that while you can outlaw randomness and the dice tag all you want, you can't outlaw arbitrariness.

Like I said earlier, you can have someone "roll the dice" a bunch of ways by using unpredictable future events:

- The 100,000s digit of the US national debt at 12:00:00 EST tomorrow.
- The units digit of the seconds on the timestamp of Donald Trump's next tweet.
- The units digit of the seconds on the next GD post (not by any players in the game).
- Just pick basically any figure in the stock market and use the units digit
- The units digit of the solution to the next Math Problem of the Day/Week on some random website.
etc.

Randomness shall prevail.

Kingmaker strategy ruins it harder because it's really not hard to just spot one townie.
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Post Post #1091 (isolation #320) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:38 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I mean randomness isn't against site rules or game rules. And most of them aren't random, just arbitrary.
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Post Post #1093 (isolation #321) » Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Understand that I'm not trying to refute anything you're saying, because it's all technically correct, just responding.

1. It's not that it's broken. It's that robots are literally better at playing this setup than humans are. That's what's concerning. When you have to do something completely unfun in order to get the best shot at winning, it's not fun for:
A. The person being lynched (cy/Lalendra) because they were just fucked by no fault of their own
B. The people playing to win, who, if they are to play their wincon to the best of their ability, must suck the fun out of the game (me)
C. The people playing to have fun, who, in NOT wanting to random lynch, are decreasing town's ability to win (Sky/Diamond/Mathblade)
D. The people who don't give a shit about that theory discussion (Kop/momo/Red/hyung) or are just waiting for something to happen after optimal strategy is discovered (sheep/Tora)

2. I think Diamond/Sky would only have been lynched if they showed themselves completely unwilling to lynch cy. Had they gotten lynched, I think the Math/Math/sheep/Tora bloc would've instantly gone back to cy, and then it would've been a coin flip for Kop/momo. Maybe we could've pulled it off, maybe not. Kop/momo weren't present enough for me to make that guess.

3. "Spot one town" has a 75% chance of working if you just pick a random person to be the token townie. This leads to expected 60% winrate (accounting for both the scenario in which they're town and in which they're scum). Since towns are generally good at townhunting once, I would argue it's higher, leading to a slightly >60% winrate.

4. Maybe. I probably agree with you on the D1 thing based on previous games. I think this is the first time this setup was run where someone legitimately suggested and pulled off the arbitrary lynch strat. It was a win, but at the cost of being interesting to play, I think.

Also I sigged cytheflyguy's comment :P
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Post Post #1095 (isolation #322) » Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:52 pm

Post by Mathdino »

my thoughts exactly

in retrospect i'm struggling to see how he even came up with a comment like that xD

wtf does jack the ripper have to do with economics

the world may never know
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Post Post #1100 (isolation #323) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Are you still releasing the PTs, mod?
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