Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[RedFlavor]

Hello
Happy new years
Lets random lynch, mathdinos counterproposal seems interesting
Idk if we should claim lovers or not

[RedFlavor]

An argument that jzhenson and my slot are both town:

Scum loves to whine to the mod when one of their members straight up doesn't show up.

These fuckers didn't post a single thing in their PTs (I assume, correct me if I'm wrong Tora) for 3 fucking days and the mod still started the game.

Locktown.

VOTE: Lalendra

as good a PoE vote as any

neither of us wrote anything in our PT lol

taking your posts at face value as well and locking you as town this game

let's lynch someone that isn't the 4 of us

/in before the 4 of us is the mafia team

Sup who we lynchin

[RedFlavor]

My pair is manrock
Only thing he said was he would be active, then I said if we should claim lovers at the begining or not but he never responded


What a liar

[RedFlavor]

There is 4/12 chance that scum was chosen as dice roller so you have to multiply 60 percent with 8/12 which makes it %40 (you can townread someone but they can be wolf)

Scumhunting seems better

[RedFlavor]

It should be like this:
8/12 dice roller is town
4/12 dice roller is scum

If dr is scum(4/12) scum wins

If dr is town (8/12)
Since they wont be lynching themselves it will be
4/10 chance lynching scum at d1
6/10 (lynching town d1) x 4/8= 3/10 chance lynching scum at d2

When we add d1 and d2 it makes 7/10 and we should multiply this with 8/12 which makes it 46% of lynching scum with dice rolling

It is still lower than 50
Btw just realized day 1 is longer than 3 weeks

[RedFlavor]

Dice roller has a 4/12 chance of being scum which is equal to 33%

[RedFlavor]

Dice roller has a 4/12 chance of being scum which is equal to 33%

You're right, of course. This doesn't change the outcome because of how combinatorics works, but I did make a mistake on how I showed that outcome.

Redone expected value calculation:
33% chance dice roller is scum: For scum to win, they have to mislynch town D1 (8/10) and then D2 (6/8).
8/10 * 6/8 = 3/5 = 60%
Town winrate here is 40%.

66% chance dice roller is town: For scum to win, they have to mislynch town D1 (6/10) and then D2 (4/8).
6/10 * 4/8 = 3/10 = 30%
Town winrate here is 70%.

Expected value:
1/3 * 40% + 2/3 * 70% = 0.6 = 60%

The 60% winrate as expected.

There is no reason for scum to roll a dice, they could just say lynch A and lynch B who are actually town members

[RedFlavor]

There is no reason for scum to roll a dice, they could just say lynch A and lynch B who are actually town members

Original Roll String: 6d10 (STATIC)

6 10-Sided Dice: (4, 10, 7, 7, 1, 9) = 38

Here's 6 random numbers. Use the dice tag, put "1d10" inside it, and that was the original dice rolling plan.

Oh I did not know about this feature lol

Original Roll String: 7d8

7 8-Sided Dice: (2, 3, 1, 5, 7, 5, 7) = 30

[RedFlavor]

I dont really think that mathdino is scum because he was right when he told there were too many town losses and expected winrate is higher when you roll the dice, a scum would not do that

Also why are you suggesting to lynch him

[RedFlavor]

Let's go!
I want mathdino to roll the dice who agrees

[RedFlavor]

Manrock: hey Ill hit 100 posts
Me: this setup seems interesting should we claim lovers or not

Btw what if kop did not see those posts

[RedFlavor]

Interesting
I miss my lover

[RedFlavor]

VOTE: cytheflyguy

Let's go!

[RedFlavor]

u r right sky....red's entire iso is setup spec to appear towny and a random vote on cy that says let's go...indicating that he is scum going for a push...i'll bite

VOTE: RedFlavor

Ill sheep math cuz I think he is town and we are likely to win when we follow a townie even its rng

[RedFlavor]

Yeah hyung (IDK where are they)
Also whoever is your hydra

[RedFlavor]

VOTE: diamond
Sheeping

[RedFlavor]

shit im not reading that

[RedFlavor]

Ok let's go

[RedFlavor]

Ok answering in 7-8 hours

[RedFlavor]

1. I did understand
2. I probably would not go because scum has a card of "We can random lynch but it won't be fun so we won't", that does not necessarily mean that someone is scum but I would say that
3. I believed
4. Yes but I did not tr sheep, I tr you so I started to follow you

[RedFlavor]

Is there a list of revealed pairings btw?

No they are not revelead since 2 pair is just 1 pair but there are claimed pairs

Also we still have 12 days I wont hammer now

[RedFlavor]

Toranaga and sheepsaymeep

pisskop

Mathdino and

Amrochora/MisaTange

MathBlade
Redflavor and

manrock

Hyung
Cy and lalendra
Diamond and Sky
Kop and

bigfinn

momo

[RedFlavor]

Hey Red, couple things.

You said that you agreed and understood my random lynch argument but then on I think 104 you started saying that, as scum, you'd take those odds.

Also the way you said you wanted me to roll the dice seemed super sarcastic, was it?

Lastly, what would you have done if I rolled the dice and they fell on you?

I thought there was no dice roll feature on this site so I found the percantage like we had %40 chance of winining

It wasnt sarcastic

I would proabbly object to dice rolling but since we would do dice rolling if everyone agrees probably no one would listen to me.

[RedFlavor]

oh shit fuck i'm sorry that was L-1

Tbh I was trusting dino but it seems like he was trying to trick me to hammer cy

If math scum it definitely cant be cy

[RedFlavor]

I know there's probably no support for it but VOTE: Mathdino

Red can join me too or explain why she's voting Diamond (I think?)

I voted diamond because I was lazy and I said I would follow dino because he wanted 60% chance for us
But I realized he didnt really want that
He voted cy first, then voted diamond, then voted cy again. What Im thinking is he realized if they lynch cy first immediately , at day2 everyone will suspect him and then he voted diamond.

I need to check few things about dino/diamond/sky interactions

[RedFlavor]

Blade/Dino

La/cy

Sky/DiamondS

Red/hyung

momo/Kop
sheep/Tora


Dino and sky/dia had skyscraper walls in page 25 so they are probably not scum together

That leaves 2 chances for other scumteam, which Im leaning to momo/kop

[RedFlavor]

VOTE: mathdino

Their other members is not that important actually

[RedFlavor]

Btw I dont understand the thing about bold part

[RedFlavor]

Dino and sky/dia had skyscraper walls in page 25 so they are probably not scum together

As in really long arguments? If just Dino did that I would say they could both be Mafia pairs, but I don't think I have a good enough read on Sky/Diamond's personalities yet. (Meaning I absolutely think Dino is the type to overexert themselves as Mafia and be, for lack of a nicer term, a tryhard)

Yes they had long arguments and dino is still saying he scumreads that pair

[RedFlavor]

What does VI stand for?

Village idiot

Also Im glad too

[RedFlavor]

Omggg you are right

[RedFlavor]

yeah i need to free up some time can we just thunderdome two lynches

I know what I said in the past, but are we just ignoring this scumslip? Like, this is a blatant scumslip.

Can we deal with this here? Please?

What is thunderdome

[RedFlavor]

Id be okay with lynching math or mop/sheep (Im not sure about latter but im leaning on sheep scum)

[RedFlavor]

it's cy;lalendra with redflavor;hyung

redflavor just made it painfully obvious

toraGOAT

not that this game mattered

Yeah



Well played everyone