Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over
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Sup who we lynchinIn post 29, Toranaga wrote:
neither of us wrote anything in our PT lolIn post 28, Mathdino wrote:An argument that jzhenson and my slot are both town:
Scum loves to whine to the mod when one of their members straight up doesn't show up.
These fuckers didn't post a single thing in their PTs (I assume, correct me if I'm wrong Tora) for 3 fucking days and the mod still started the game.
Locktown.
VOTE: Lalendra
as good a PoE vote as any
taking your posts at face value as well and locking you as town this game
let's lynch someone that isn't the 4 of us
/in before the 4 of us is the mafia team- RedFlavor
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It should be like this:
8/12 dice roller is town
4/12 dice roller is scum
If dr is scum(4/12) scum wins
If dr is town (8/12)
Since they wont be lynching themselves it will be
4/10 chance lynching scum at d1
6/10 (lynching town d1) x 4/8= 3/10 chance lynching scum at d2
When we add d1 and d2 it makes 7/10 and we should multiply this with 8/12 which makes it 46% of lynching scum with dice rolling
It is still lower than 50
Btw just realized day 1 is longer than 3 weeks- RedFlavor
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There is no reason for scum to roll a dice, they could just say lynch A and lynch B who are actually town membersIn post 110, Mathdino wrote:
You're right, of course. This doesn't change the outcome because of how combinatorics works, but I did make a mistake on how I showed that outcome.In post 108, RedFlavor wrote:Dice roller has a 4/12 chance of being scum which is equal to 33%
Redone expected value calculation:
33% chance dice roller is scum: For scum to win, they have to mislynch town D1 (8/10) and then D2 (6/8).
8/10 * 6/8 = 3/5 = 60%
Town winrate here is 40%.
66% chance dice roller is town: For scum to win, they have to mislynch town D1 (6/10) and then D2 (4/8).
6/10 * 4/8 = 3/10 = 30%
Town winrate here is 70%.
Expected value:
1/3 * 40% + 2/3 * 70% = 0.6 = 60%
The 60% winrate as expected.- RedFlavor
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Oh I did not know about this feature lolIn post 116, Mathdino wrote:In post 115, RedFlavor wrote:There is no reason for scum to roll a dice, they could just say lynch A and lynch B who are actually town membersOriginal Roll String: 6d10(STATIC) 6 10-Sided Dice: (4, 10, 7, 7, 1, 9) = 38
Here's 6 random numbers. Use the dice tag, put "1d10" inside it, and that was the original dice rolling plan.
Original Roll String: 7d87 8-Sided Dice: (2, 3, 1, 5, 7, 5, 7) = 30- RedFlavor
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Ill sheep math cuz I think he is town and we are likely to win when we follow a townie even its rngIn post 383, momo wrote:u r right sky....red's entire iso is setup spec to appear towny and a random vote on cy that says let's go...indicating that he is scum going for a push...i'll bite
VOTE: RedFlavor- RedFlavor
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In post 624, sheepsaysmeep wrote:shit im not reading that- RedFlavor
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No they are not revelead since 2 pair is just 1 pair but there are claimed pairsIn post 789, hyung wrote:Is there a list of revealed pairings btw?
Also we still have 12 days I wont hammer now- RedFlavor
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In post 505, Sky_Paladin wrote:Toranaga and sheepsaymeep
pisskopMathdino andAmrochora/MisaTangeMathBlade
Redflavor andmanrockHyung
Cy and lalendra
Diamond and Sky
Kop andbigfinnmomo- RedFlavor
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I thought there was no dice roll feature on this site so I found the percantage like we had %40 chance of wininingIn post 793, Mathdino wrote:Hey Red, couple things.
You said that you agreed and understood my random lynch argument but then on I think 104 you started saying that, as scum, you'd take those odds.
Also the way you said you wanted me to roll the dice seemed super sarcastic, was it?
Lastly, what would you have done if I rolled the dice and they fell on you?
It wasnt sarcastic
I would proabbly object to dice rolling but since we would do dice rolling if everyone agrees probably no one would listen to me.- RedFlavor
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Tbh I was trusting dino but it seems like he was trying to trick me to hammer cyIn post 795, Mathdino wrote:oh shit fuck i'm sorry that was L-1
If math scum it definitely cant be cy- RedFlavor
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I voted diamond because I was lazy and I said I would follow dino because he wanted 60% chance for usIn post 813, hyung wrote:I know there's probably no support for it but VOTE: Mathdino
Red can join me too or explain why she's voting Diamond (I think?)
But I realized he didnt really want that
He voted cy first, then voted diamond, then voted cy again. What Im thinking is he realized if they lynch cy first immediately , at day2 everyone will suspect him and then he voted diamond.
I need to check few things about dino/diamond/sky interactions- RedFlavor
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Yes they had long arguments and dino is still saying he scumreads that pairIn post 828, hyung wrote:
As in really long arguments? If just Dino did that I would say they could both be Mafia pairs, but I don't think I have a good enough read on Sky/Diamond's personalities yet. (Meaning I absolutely think Dino is the type to overexert themselves as Mafia and be, for lack of a nicer term, a tryhard)In post 825, RedFlavor wrote:Dino and sky/dia had skyscraper walls in page 25 so they are probably not scum together- RedFlavor
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What is thunderdomeIn post 857, DiamondSentinel wrote:
I know what I said in the past, but are we just ignoring this scumslip? Like, this is a blatant scumslip.In post 780, sheepsaysmeep wrote:yeah i need to free up some time can we just thunderdome two lynches
Can we deal with this here? Please?- RedFlavor
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YeahIn post 1076, Toranaga wrote:
toraGOATIn post 950, Toranaga wrote:it's cy;lalendra with redflavor;hyung
redflavor just made it painfully obvious
not that this game mattered
Well played everyone - RedFlavor
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