In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible. Meaning vigi claim would firmly cement us into 2t I think. while no Vigi claim puts us into 1t or 5t because there were 2 NK.
This is contingent on no JK. If there’s a JK, there’s an offchance that one of the kills got roleblocked and we could have Vig and SK.
I would assume it's a very slim offchance.
On the chance a jk could be nk'd I'd hope if a jk did block someone that they'd let us know (I think Math alluded to this a few pages back).
impede no matter what we not only have an SK (doesn't change our setup theory) but we also have a lying vig who has repeatedly throughout the day claimed not vig
this isn't worth speculating on, we can assume people in this game aren't idiots
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
word soup, what the fuck did i think i was writing
EBWOP: Either way, we have an SK, so that doesn't change our setup spec, and your hypothetical would require a lying vig who has repeatedly claimed not vig throughout the day.
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
In post 1515, Mathdino wrote:Convinced about the popular NK theory here. Calls it a working theory when it's kind of obvious.
I was the first one to call it like that.
YOUR VERY OWN POST TO FOLLOW MINE UP INCLUDED THIS:
In post 1075, Mathdino wrote:Upon reflection (and I'm just assuming vig doesn't exist now because they didn't cc Jay), the most likely scenario is that mafia killed Jay and SK killed A50. Reason being that SK has a 1-shot BP and vig hanging around is much more likely to hurt mafia. Mafia on the other hand is actively afraid of vig. Especially after we have him leashed.
Calling it a "popular nightkill theory", when only few people had theorized and you posted that AFTER me, is somewhat stupid.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
In post 1536, Impede wrote:This thought just occurred to me... if an SK is genuinely scumhunting, one would expect them to be honest about their reads, yes? They have nothing to hide, no one to protect, they want to lynch maf. If we look at A50 as an SK kill (seems highly likely), I think there's a decent chance the SK actually thought A50 was scum. This is especially true of a N1 NK, as they would be less concerned with people SK-hunting, and even if they were cornered based on their reads, they could easily WIFOM their way out of it.
This means a few observations are probably true:
1) The SK would have most likely been present on the Creature wagon unless genuinely convinced he wasn't maf.
2) The SK would have to be decently convinced on scum!A50 -AND- been convinced that they couldn't get town to lynch him (why waste an NK on a foregone conclusion?)
This is correct in my mind.
In post 1536, Impede wrote:Now, forgive me for probably being stupid and redundant, but this forces me to retract my point on Una earlier. This makes Una seem quite sus if you accept this logic.
...this not so much. I won't dive into the WIFOM-territory myself, all I can say is that me killing A50 N1 in this game would've been the single most stupid thing to do, if I were to be scum. I would want to keep him alive just to have a fall-back-scumread for D2/D3. SK!Una would've possibly killed A50 N2/N3, but never before.
In post 1536, Impede wrote:I think SK is all but guaranteed to be in a slot that isn't highly polarizing, and probably especially likely to be flying under the radar with some genuine scumhunting thrown in. Candidates: Hawk, Kop, Ghost, Una. Added candidate because paranoia: Math
Slight disagree here too: SK has no reason not to
FULLY
scumhunt all game. They can pick a BP at start, and if they have been obv.towning all game, they can always hope for town-protectives coming their way too.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
You're gonna hate me for saying this, but A50 would easily be my first shot if I were SK. Would save from the awkward question on D2 of wtf to do with him. Strong player too.
ARGH the WIFOM....!
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
In post 1583, UnaBombaH wrote:I still think Math is either
A) SK
or
B) just a town that gets everywhere, maths everything, and is a decently good guy towards others too.
Somehow it's still easier to accept A.
I can see this as well but math will not be flipped first.
Sorry una it’s going to have to be you.
"A man can not be too careful on the choices of his enemies." Oscar Wilde
In post 1515, Mathdino wrote:Convinced about the popular NK theory here. Calls it a working theory when it's kind of obvious.
I was the first one to call it like that.
YOUR VERY OWN POST TO FOLLOW MINE UP INCLUDED THIS:
In post 1075, Mathdino wrote:Upon reflection (and I'm just assuming vig doesn't exist now because they didn't cc Jay), the most likely scenario is that mafia killed Jay and SK killed A50. Reason being that SK has a 1-shot BP and vig hanging around is much more likely to hurt mafia. Mafia on the other hand is actively afraid of vig. Especially after we have him leashed.
Calling it a "popular nightkill theory", when only few people had theorized and you posted that AFTER me, is somewhat stupid.
You're overreacting. I was dryly commenting on posts I found interesting. It wasn't a case, it was a selective post-by-post to see what conclusion I could draw.
Work with me, Una. You're not lynching me today, and momo is certainly not Creature's partner. Excessive SK-hunting is more likely to hurt the town by witch hunting the least scummy townies. We'll get to that.
Between the viable lynch candidates, who is Creature's partner?
Edit: lol this is getting pretty funny
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
You're gonna hate me for saying this, but A50 would easily be my first shot if I were SK. Would save from the awkward question on D2 of wtf to do with him. Strong player too.
ARGH the WIFOM....!
How is this WIFOM? I'm literally using this to support an argument I was in the middle of. I acknowledge that it's a weird thing to say, but I was arguing with people on why the SK shot A50 and I'm saying it makes sense for EVERYONE, INCLUDING ME to shoot A50 and this NKA is probably not gonna get anywhere.
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
I know you put a lot of effort towards your setup-spec Mathdino, but can you make a short, simple post on HOW SURELY we are against 1+1 at this point?
It's very important to me, as I read interactions better than anything else.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
The fuck is WIFOMy about it? I'm literally telling you, if I were the SK, I would have shot the guy SK shot last night. WIFOM would be like "If I were SK, I'd have shot sheepsaysmeep" or something to try to 'prove' I'm not SK.
Like I said, talk to me about our lynch options.
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
In post 1590, UnaBombaH wrote:I know you put a lot of effort towards your setup-spec Mathdino, but can you make a short, simple post on HOW SURELY we are against 1+1 at this point?
It's very important to me, as I read interactions better than anything else.
I calculated all the possible setups that involve 2+1 and found they were so incredibly unlikely compared to the setups with 1+1 that the chances were around 1:20.
It's important to me too. That's why I did the not-really-sorta-massclaim.
There is 1 mafia remaining. I'd stake a lot on this one.
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
On D1, you claimed that my interactions with A50 made me scummy, and you wanted to flip A50 in order to flip me.
After A50 flipped, you decided that my interactions were STILL scummy, and you figured I must be scum with momo.
THEN after I near-DEFINITIVELY PROVED that there's 1 mafia remaining, you're like WHELP, I GUESS HE MUST BE SK!
Throughout ALLLLLL of this you've repeatedly stated that my entire game has been townish as fuck and that my presence has improved town cohesion. Now I can't expect you to just believe me when I tell you "I'm town" but I absolutely do expect agreement that my behaviour has been townish and that I've improved town cohesion by hard-defending multiple townreads when I didn't have to. Including you.
You've not once written up a case on me because when you see me, you see a townie that you desperately don't want to be scum. So I'm a liability because you think I'm gonna win if I don't get lynched this fucking second.
You had the same view on A50. It was stupid then and it's stupid now. Your read on me is solely based on paranoia. The fact that you always boomerang right back to it after every assumption your read is built on is proven wrong, shows that.
If you really give that much of a shit about this, write up a case on me so people can take a look at it after you
A. get NK'd
B. get lynched for being this fucking tunnelly.
I don't actually even think you're scum anymore but the hilarious fucking thing is now people are using "Well, Math is defending Una for some weird reason" as a roundabout way to suggest I'm SK, who thinks you're mafia, who wants to keep you around.
You're being ridiculous, Screen's being ridiculous, maybe I'm being ridiculous, but if I'm significantly off in my view of the day, I need more voices telling me so, instead of shouting about how I could be scum in some wackoworld.
Work. With. Me.
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
This would implicate Hawk.
Very simple logic - Creature is a Bus-Driver who plans on bussing his buddy Hawk.
If there is a Tracker/Watcher/whatnot investigative, his claim to visit Hawk might be confirmed at a later time.
At the same time he makes sure no one else can hide behind his buddy and die.
In post 567, Mathdino wrote:We've effectively strong-townblocked Jay, momo, me, Hawk, fitz, sheep.
Since when Hawk was town? He seemed opportunistic for me.
His second mention of Hawk. Clumsy distancing?
In post 597, Creature wrote:I agree with the townblock besides Hawk, so that leaves RedFlavor, Assemble, Kop, you, UnaBombaH and Impede. I'd probably remove Impede by myself.
Third mention - yet again only saying he doesn't townbin Hawk, but doesn't scumread him either.
In post 952, Creature wrote:momo town
Creature town
RedFlavor can be lynched
sheepsaysmeep town
Srceenplay town I guess
Kop null
Almost50 paranoid of
UnaBombaH seemed town
Hawk I remember not liking
havingfitz I remember townreading, but not sure now
Impede I haven't decided yet
Mathdino town
JaydragonKing town obviously
This would be a VERY CLUMSY last ditch-effort to try and distance. Would fit with RedFlavor replacing out. Would actively pursue this theory further if Ghost hadn't been so outstanding before leaving.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
In post 1593, Mathdino wrote:Throughout ALLLLLL of this you've repeatedly stated that my entire game has been townish as fuck and that my presence has improved town cohesion. Now I can't expect you to just believe me when I tell you "I'm town" but I absolutely do expect agreement that my behaviour has been townish and that I've improved town cohesion by hard-defending multiple townreads when I didn't have to. Including you.
Yes.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
In post 1590, UnaBombaH wrote:I know you put a lot of effort towards your setup-spec Mathdino, but can you make a short, simple post on HOW SURELY we are against 1+1 at this point?
It's very important to me, as I read interactions better than anything else.
I calculated all the possible setups that involve 2+1 and found they were so incredibly unlikely compared to the setups with 1+1 that the chances were around 1:20.
It's important to me too. That's why I did the not-really-sorta-massclaim.
There is 1 mafia remaining. I'd stake a lot on this one.
All calculations assume no player is lying about not being Vig and no one lied about being one of the 2 letter roles.
Also I meant 7t not 0t earlier .. my bad
I highly doubt we have double doc too but Doc JK seems possible if there is a lying vig.
Anyway. Are we lynching Sheep, I still thought this was the best lynch considering what we know about the setup or are assuming about it anyway.
@Screen while I agree Una before Math I don't expect either of those to flip SK at least not today/tonight.
@Una: You're so fixated on possible scenarios over probable scenarios that you're not even fact checking them.
1. Bus driver happens BEFORE tracking. Plus, even if tracker could detect bus driver targets, the tracker would find 2 targets and immediately be like "no fuck you you're obviously bus driver".
2. To think that Creature-scum is thinking THAT hard about who he chooses to "hide" behind is ludicrous. He's not careful as scum.
3. Distancing that makes no sense. Kicking Hawk out of the townbloc holds no utility. Had he used that post to instead say "I agree with you on Hawk" you'd have labelled that weird too. Don't make up reasons.
4. We went over this. RedFlavor makes 0 fucking sense as Creature's partner, for multiple reasons. I'm getting the impression you're just not reading my posts anymore because you think I'm scum.
Please take more time to think through your talking points.
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
In post 1596, Hawk wrote:Anyway. Are we lynching Sheep, I still thought this was the best lynch considering what we know about the setup or are assuming about it anyway.
Do you wanna go over the sheep metadive from the other game and compare it to sheep this game?
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy
In post 1593, Mathdino wrote:You've not once written up a case on me because when you see me, you see a townie that you desperately don't want to be scum. So I'm a liability because you think I'm gonna win if I don't get lynched this fucking second.
You had the same view on A50. It was stupid then and it's stupid now. Your read on me is solely based on paranoia. The fact that you always boomerang right back to it after every assumption your read is built on is proven wrong, shows that.
This is wrong. If you had any idea how I play, or understood WHY I pinned you, momo and A50 on the scummy-list, it would make sense.
Don't ask me to explain how I play. I either get results, or I don't, but trying to explain why I've done this would take everything away from my actions.
I think we have gotten a lot out of it, like it or not.
In post 1593, Mathdino wrote:If you really give that much of a shit about this, write up a case on me so people can take a look at it after you
A. get NK'd
B. get lynched for being this fucking tunnelly.
NK'ing me would mean I'm on the right track at this point.
In post 1593, Mathdino wrote:I don't actually even think you're scum anymore but the hilarious fucking thing is now people are using "Well, Math is defending Una for some weird reason" as a roundabout way to suggest I'm SK, who thinks you're mafia, who wants to keep you around.
..and I love it. We have lots of weird posts to interpret.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
Would actively pursue this theory further if Ghost hadn't been so outstanding before leaving.