Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over


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Post Post #125 (isolation #0) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:45 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Hello everyone-- lame non-post here because I've been quite ill the past few days. See you soon.
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Post Post #178 (isolation #1) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Mozamis
: Townread the page 1 entrance. Also townread his string of posts at the top of page 3. That reads like gamesolving to me.



Thor
: Push on Maxous seems a bit weird. People are cagey with their reads, it happens all the time. Especially early game—like this push is a stage prop to bolster the impression of a strong entrance. It could just be the “aggressive early game” that he’s talking about? Either way I hope I’ll get a better sense of him pretty quickly, seems like a guy who puts cards on the table. Or at least appears to.



Moneybags:
and are posts that make me go “yes, good, reasonable, smart. I want to trust this guy” but at the same time, he’s also very on the sidelines, voice of reason, kind of guy. The kind of guy that’s endgame scum. Definitely expect people to start townreading him. (Update: I was right. Bunch of townreads just because the dude seems well put together, that's definitely something to worry about.) Will wait and see where he falls, but 46 “I’m not looking to pin everyone down…” is a small thing to keep in mind for me.



texcat
: That line thing looks like a smart way to format posts. In fact, I’m doing it right now. Thanks texcat. I'll give it a test run, see if I like it.



PenguinPower
: I agree, the Thor opening case is weak. My first thought was echoing Moneybags-- “Penguin sheeps Thor on Maxous, perhaps he’s trying to direct Thor’s focus off of him?” But maybe not so much.

rings true for me. If Thor really does open like this all the time, then I guess there really isn’t much to do about it from his point of view other than move on.



Beef
: The Beef's reads on make me wonder about what you think about Penguin's vote on Maxous. I would hesitate to pin down reads on either Penguin or Thor but they definitely do lean slightly in the direction of the beef, although I suspect that it is for different reasons.



Klick
: The entrance at is godly. Bella is a solid push, I missed it during my read but can def get behind the reasoning. My thoughts on mozamis are exactly that.



Flubber
: I'm running out of steam at this point and reading through Flubber vs. Thor is definitely starting to blur together. I'll probably go back and pick through page 5 at some point. At this point in time my gut is telling me to town lean this dude.

In fact, skimming through the later pages I'm definitely not gonna be able to process all those chunky posts so I'm gonna take a break and come back to it in a couple hours.

Reads as of right now? I have pretty comfortable townreads on Klick and mozamis. No real scumreads as of yet but I def want to scrutinize Moneybags first priority, maybe Bella and Flubber too. Shrug. I'm more comfortable calling Penguin town than Thor. We'll see when I get caught up entirely.
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Post Post #197 (isolation #2) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:21 am

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In post 194, Thor665 wrote:Errant is playing right near the very edge of strategic lurking and should knock that crud off.
I'm disappointing you yet again! I'm in travel all of today, driving back to uni. Scout's honor I'll be here when I get back.
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Post Post #252 (isolation #3) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:19 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

8 hour drive!

Beefster:

is pretty standard scumposting in my book. Tosses out a "possible scumread," qualifies it as just nothing later on when pressed to explain now that he can appease with a townread. Obviously not always scum here but I'm saying I think it's a bad post.

I'm actually not opposed to an Athena wagon in theory, but why the vote?

Moneybags:
In post 150, Moneybags wrote:I feel like scum would be more focused on "how can I subtlety change my mind on this" rather than just an outright 180.
I'm not saying you're wrong statistically but I'm also going to say that scum is capable of being a lot (to the point where an observation like this is useless to me) more unpredictable in this regard than you think. Especially when they don't think about this kind of stuff.

Flubber:

Your sudden focus on texcat doesn't make sense to me. What about her catchup that you reference in is weird? Is it just lack of content?
In post 196, Flubbernugget wrote:It's atypical to have this many town reads, yes.
It's bound to happen with this dense of a game, especially when D1 reads/lynches so often boil down to "who isn't doing a lot."

VOTE: Maxous
Definitely the most agreeable leading wagon to me so I'll just join in. Don't rly have a solid read because he's terse but I can see scum playing like him-- throwing out a lot of opinions on certain posts or players for ultimately surface level reasons without presenting any cohesive gameview. No heart in his hunting.
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Post Post #312 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:31 am

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In post 266, CultOfAthena wrote:Hm, I feel like my posts are getting ignored here. I also didn't get really get any responses that I'm satisfied with from my questions. Is it my posting style?
I feel like this question comes from scum a lot under pressure. Responds to a single one-off vote from Beefster with a flurry of posts, questions about why she's being ignored, classic "it's not me, it's my playstyle" line... idk, seems like a disproportionate reaction.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Yeah flubber, it did answer my question. I guess. I've since forgotten where I was going with that.

--

Just a thoughts dump:

Right now I'm in a place where I have a small pool of people who I think are probably possibly town and a bunch more people who I would just be okay voting. I'm struggling to find cohesion within that lynchpool but there's not really a high standard for that D1 anyway.

It seems like Maxous is a low impact vote despite the people on the wagon, because no one's really going anywhere with it, including me. I can wait and see where Athena/Beef goes. I'd also be willing to flip thor but would also prefer to wait. I get a sense that he's consciously trying to be the biggest player in the game, I don't know how I feel about that.

Definitely Bella is a good vote. Throws out opinions without thought put behind them, weak attempts to interact with key points in the game in the early stages. It sounds like a bit of a dumb reason, but it's plausible with this kind of dense game, where I think scum can potentially find it really hard to work themselves up to being a key player when people are already engaging with each other at this level. (Haha I know, look at me with my 4 posts.) But also why Athena, if scum, might find herself particularly frustrated when no one engages with her.
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Post Post #314 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:44 am

Post by Errantparabola »

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post Post #321 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:26 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 316, Thor665 wrote:
In post 314, Errantparabola wrote:¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Then why bring it up at all if it's meaningless to you?
I didn’t think it was blatant. I don’t know you or how you usually act. That how you always scumhunt?

Moneybags: i do think that Athena felt pressured by Beefster’s vote. I dont think town usually goes into an immediate throwing shade/discredit from what is a claimed gut read (268)
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Post Post #499 (isolation #7) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:17 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 322, Thor665 wrote:You're saying that I *don't* overtly appear to be trying to control the conversation and exert my will on the gamestate?
Yeah-- never mind. My original thought was "Thor is pushing every single point loudly even though some of them seem really dumb" but in hindsight that doesn't really seem like an important thing
In post 338, CultOfAthena wrote:[PenguinPower] seemed content to treat the game as a debate rather than as a game of mafia, and his response to my pointing that out was an utter misrepresentation.
Could you do me a favor and point me to this?
In post 339, CultOfAthena wrote:I split up what I would normally make as one post into multiple to see if it would get people to read what I was saying more. You're interpreting all of the posts there as a reaction to Beefster, but that isn't the case.
That may definitely be true, but my point is that I think that your reaction in general is something I think is a plausibly common reaction from scum in your situation.
In post 339, CultOfAthena wrote:By the way, why were you "not opposed to my wagon" in 252, made before the post you quoted?
Before the post, you were one of several players who had posted, but had not stuck out or made an impression in anyway. It is common for me to express desire to wagon these people in the early game.
In post 339, CultOfAthena wrote:If I were scum, why would I feel the need to insert myself as a "key player" when most people seemed content to just write me off as town and ignore the rest of my posts?
Good point. I'll look back on it and think. I think I might just
UNVOTE:
now-- my mind's kind of changed as of this post. Will see what happens when I read more.
In post 339, CultOfAthena wrote:Where did I discredit Beefster? If by "discredit" you mean "point out how someone is wrong", then first of all those two things are very connotatively different and you'll have to explain why you chose the first phrase over the second, and second – yeah I would be "discrediting" him if that's what you mean.
My thought back then was that you were saying Beefster is superficially reading the post. Which implies that he's just skimming and finding reads to have. Which is, yeah, discrediting.

This post is already meaty so I'm going to continue in the next post
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Post Post #501 (isolation #8) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:28 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 351, Klick wrote:But the Flubbernugget vote is really, really bad. She gave no real indication she had any sort of read on Flubbernugget before the vote.
Note to self to go back and look on this later today. Moneybags is right that your scumreads are easy and wrong that it necessarily makes you scummy.
In post 475, Beefster wrote:Actually, you know what?

VOTE: mozamis

COA can wait.
Worst trade deal in the history of trade deals.
In post 489, Moneybags wrote:Fantastic response. What I had been seeing from you had me worried but I was very much on the fence. I feel your reply was very solid and it's cleared me of any doubts.
I know that I've been consistently suspicious of Moneybags for reasons that are almost entirely gut and probably confbias and I've been annoying about them but this makes me feel very bad.

I doubt there is one scum in Transcend/RC, but that's just a gut thing, I guess we'll see.
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Post Post #594 (isolation #9) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:24 pm

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i think that my posts do have content in them? what about it makes you think I'm not saying much
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Post Post #748 (isolation #10) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:38 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

A Minor real life emergency has happened and I probably will be site wide inactive until Sunday evening. I know I havent posted a lot recently, just lynch me if its that much of an inconvenience. I’m really sorry, i should have been more active so that something like this wouldnt be as bad.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #11) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Alright, I'm back. I skimmed the first several pages since I've been gone, but before I catch up and give reads in earnest, a few points:

1) Once again, I'm sorry for being unavailable this weekend.
2) If anyone suspects me of pretending to be V/LA, I'm sorry for whatever I did to give you such a low opinion of my character.
3) I've pretty clearly softed VT already. I'm VT.
4) I'm not particularly interested in defending myself. I think the burden of proof falls on RC/Thor, if they're town there's not much I can or want to do to argue with them or change their minds. Maybe they've elaborated on why they think I'm scum, we'll see when I read.
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Post Post #1174 (isolation #12) » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:29 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Fuck me, I was really banking on dying last night
Okay I'm outta time for clear reasons but, yeah. Reading soon and all that, fuck
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Post Post #1175 (isolation #13) » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:30 pm

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Oh, one more thing, I haven't read 50% of this game so caveats etc etc but I think RC is scum
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Post Post #1194 (isolation #14) » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:20 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I know I'm being awful to all of you right now but please be understanding-- I dealt with an unexpected event this weekend, barely had access to a computer at all for 3 days, and that set me back a long way in regards to work/school/etc.

I do fully intend on catching up and am working on it. I don't think I'm playing poorly or like scum. I don't think RC/Thor/whoever is doing it has a justification for calling me obvscum, at least prior to where I stopped reading.

I do admit that I haven't been here. If you want to lynch me now and then blacklist me later, feel free, I deserve both. I'll replace out if I can't catch up fully by tomorrow. Other than that, I'm catching up on my own time and energy as best I can but please understand that my real life is whirlwind status and I have a very limited amount of both right now. Thanks.
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Post Post #1261 (isolation #15) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:51 am

Post by Errantparabola »

1.
In post 598, Maxous wrote:@errant: bit of a hard question to answer. I think there could be more conclusions to your thoughts?
I don't know how much I read this as scum but this is basically "I made up a reason to throw shade at EP because I felt it pertinent to push there, but when queried about it, had nothing to back it up so backpedaled"
Maxous is definitely playing like lethargic/carefree town or doing a good job of emulating it so I'm conflicted

--

2.
In post 733, Transcend wrote:if someone can towncase coa then i'll happily laeave her alone
I think this is pertinent. RC, you just keep saying "I have great reasons to townread CoA" and that may be true, and obviously you don't want to share your meta tells but as long as this happens I'm not really going to care.

I still don't scumread moz and maybe RC could talk a little more about that because I did mention that it was the kind of read that MS was bad at, and I can def understand why you'd say that

--

3. I don't really townread Klick anymore, I think scum a lot of the time is prone to strong starts and then not a lot to townread afterwards and that's sort of the vibe I'm getting-- obviously I could be crazy here but yeah, I don't know.

--

4. I think Beefster is town.

is obviously wrong-- all of those things could be as true as if I were scum. My life is the same either way. But it does make Beefster seem very town to me. Is he capable of faking that as scum, I don't know. I don't think so.
In addition I think end of D1 Beefster comes across as towny. He's got a lot of options, people he thinks might be scum, attempting to have a direction.
I think HWS defense seems at first glance, a very town perspective, especially paired with hindsight post. But I think that second point is maybe underestimating a hypothetical scum Beefster's ability to comfortably interact around a scumbuddy

--

5. I'm kind of willing to vote texcat today? My hesitations are mostly gut but I also think maybe I'm being influenced by something along the lines of too scummy to be scum logic? Not quite sure there. Mainly, I really don't think "let's analyse the players who weren't voting HWS to start with" is a scum opening on D2.

--

6. sick case, Maxous.

--

The largest version of my lynchpool is this:
{Thor, Klick, texcat, Athena, Maxous} and I think the order is somewhat like this
{Athena > Maxous > texcat > Thor > Klick}

I would be willing to
VOTE: Klick
here because he's going for texcat/Thor and almost completely stagnating around that and his other weak reads. I'm open to reconsidering because I do think that scum is more inclined to open aggressively after a scum lynch but I don't think that factors in heavily enough to change off of here.

Some conclusions on the playerlist from catchup:


I don't know if Thor scum is as consistently noncommittal about texcat if she were his buddy and so I doubt that they're partners together. If anyone has experience there, I think it's important if Thor/tex is a prominent theory
That said, I would be inclined, vaguely, to think that Thor is more likely scum than texcat.
If I stop having the impression of Maxous-town very uninvested in the game, he potentially becomes my top scumread. But as for now that impression remains.
I have no solid foothold on how to start reading Athena. But I do think that a large part of her engagement with the game is reactive rather than worried about solving the game.
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Post Post #1284 (isolation #16) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:44 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1270, texcat wrote:Can you clarify this? I originally thought that "Athena > " ... meant that Athena was the scummiest and Klick the least scummy, but your next sentences seem to indicate it's the other way round.
Other way round.
In post 1273, CultOfAthena wrote:Are you saying that you think that town makes up reasons to throw shade and then backpedals when pushed? Because saying this and then following it up with a townread on Max makes it seem like you're not actually trying to sort him to me.
Firstly: maybe I'm wrong with that interpretation, and although that's scummy behavior there are reasons I think he could be town. So I've got conflicting evidence. And I made it pretty clear that without that conflicting interpretation giving me pause on this, Maxous basically becomes my top scumread.

Secondly: Yes. Well sort of. I think that town definitely puts out lazy reads at times. I think that town occasionally, maybe a certain kind of player, fakes reads to get townread and stay alive (I'm not saying that's Maxous here). I think that town can be inconsistent and disengaged and can sort of go with something that they remember reading or thinking and find later that they don't really see that anymore, be sloppy with what kind of stuff they post or say, etc etc etc. And I think all of that can go towards the fact that hey, maybe Maxous isn't trying to consistently throw shade at me when he aint got none.
In post 1273, CultOfAthena wrote:Also: what was the deal with your RC scumread?
As I thought about it more, I
- became more and more convinced that the way RC rapidly flipped on me was nonsensical and he kept becoming more and more confident that I was scum until he was eventually just working with a gameview that assumed that I was and I didn't buy whatever he looked at and saw.
- considered that the spat with Transcend came from scum motivation.

either way it's moot now so shrug
In post 1275, mozamis wrote:hey it's more theory talk form thor! INFO WITHOUT ANALYSIS.
Scum relies on this at times but based on Thor's behavior this game he is obviously not that type of scum player
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Post Post #1492 (isolation #17) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:42 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I'm assuming that I can post until a replacement is officially announced.
In post 1231, Thor665 wrote:My reason for scumreading EP is as already presented - lurk.
I'm having a seriously difficult time believing that this is what lies at the core of such a sticky read on your part.
In post 1295, Maxous wrote:again, you read RC's spat with Transcend but didn't see the tracker claim?
Yes. In my memory I remembered Transcend and RC both ccing each other, and Transcend going back on it. I think I assumed that both claims were fake.
In post 1301, CultOfAthena wrote:But you never gave the "conflicting" part of that interpretation – you never gave any reasons that you townread him. I don't see why, from your perspective, your Max townread exists at all, and combined with the fact that you were voting him just yesterday and never gave any indication of rethinking that read, I'm pretty sure you're faking your reads.
I mean this is provably untrue.
In post 1261, Errantparabola wrote:Maxous is definitely playing like lethargic/carefree town or doing a good job of emulating it so I'm conflicted
In post 1317, Flubbernugget wrote:In the unlikely chance of Thor flipping town, Beefster deserves to be powerlynched into a new dimension.
at this point I'm reading both Thor/RC spat as town and Beefster town. What's your logic on scumBeef?

my poe is pretty similar to RC in 1351. Maxous / Klick / tex is a solid lynchpool imo. I might casually add Athena just because of deteriorating weak town reasons that have since gone uncorroborated, but shrug. I might end up taking Maxous out of the pool just because his read on me is so lazy and weak that I have a hard time believing that scum is so brazen about sticking to it (yadda yadda too scummy to be scum is trash, save it). Still confident Klick is a decent wagon. Very good wagon. texcat is a fine wagon that I would happily go on.

Saving to read in detail later (aka let's table it until I get replaced) because it's important
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Post Post #1493 (isolation #18) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:45 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I take the townread on thor back, it was for a really stupid reason. I dont think I really have scumread on him though. Guess I'll think about it. Or get replaced.
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Post Post #1495 (isolation #19) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:54 pm

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i claim masons with both of them
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Post Post #1496 (isolation #20) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:56 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In all seriousness though, I'm probably willing to hear you out on either.
Give me time to read your posts in detail. As it stands I'd probably vote moz first. I can recognize that I've been generous with giving towncred to Beefster on fakeable things. I think neither should be priority lynches nor are most likely picks for scum.
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Post Post #1554 (isolation #21) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:55 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1515, Flubbernugget wrote:Beefs been on every wagon that looked like a viable lynch
dont think this is a reason to scumread.
In post 1521, mozamis wrote:That catch up post from EP didn't contain anything that looked like scumhunting. He's happy to sheep RC's reads "Max/Klick/Tex" - no reasons given - then happy to vote me a few posts later. No reason given.
when you look at my posts it feel like its pretty clear that i'm working from a poe point of view here, and i have expressed logic on the scummy things i think are from max and klick
Hahahaha, oh man these fucking TOWN CHUMPS are really shooting themselves in the foot for not powerlynching me and tex!
In post 1526, TesXX wrote:Also, the vote counter doesn't recognize "ep" Votes as voting for Errantparabola so please spell the full name or use something like "vote: errant"
Votecounter townreads me.

Thor, I remember you suggesting a vote on RC earlier (it's a hazy memory so correct me if it was a joke or something) but why was that?
Athena, I don't think any of your lines of questioning are salient in the slightest. If it becomes something people in general care about then sure I'll go line for line on my thoughts.

RC's case:
1) busses swims
2) Beefster assoc
3) Purposefully playing up his playstyle

My thoughts:
1) eh. nothing particularly damning (there usually isn't though) but also plausible and i can respect your bussing cred i guess.
2) no
3) At first I thought this was a good point-- I did a pretty deep metadive because I think this is where it applies quite strongly. I think it points somewhat nicely and easily to his towngame. I can elaborate but I'd be interested to see if anyone has their own conclusions.
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Post Post #1556 (isolation #22) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:59 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

ugh i was afraid of that but randomly decided to dismiss it
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Post Post #1557 (isolation #23) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:00 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I'll vote moz after Thor checks in if that's the case.
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Post Post #1559 (isolation #24) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:02 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I think he's cute
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Post Post #1562 (isolation #25) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:07 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

fakeclaim all you want smooch
that vote by klick though. sexy.
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Post Post #1564 (isolation #26) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:10 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

That was my gut reaction too, and I definitely think that, but I might not read too much into it-- if Klick is scum, he knows moz's alignment which makes it very easy to respond like that
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #27) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:31 am

Post by Errantparabola »

what's the VC?
Also, Athena: clearly the accusation doesn't hold weight with anyone else. Also, my alignment is not the limiting factor for how much effort I put into making solid reads.
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Post Post #1582 (isolation #28) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1577, RadiantCowbells wrote:EP do you like me like me y/n
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Post Post #1627 (isolation #29) » Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:09 am

Post by Errantparabola »

RC's gonna hate me if he ends up being right, but I'll go here for now, I think I vastly prefer it.
VOTE: texcat
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Post Post #1659 (isolation #30) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:43 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Youre exaggerating but fine. I’ll hammer this evening.
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Post Post #1665 (isolation #31) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:05 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Its not like I suddenly think moz is scum because RC called me bad at the game. No one else is getting lynched as long as RC lives and I’m willing to just end it.
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Post Post #1667 (isolation #32) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:09 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Dont worry about it. I understand
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Post Post #1705 (isolation #33) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:58 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

think scum just wins this game. It doesn't seem plausible that all remaining scum is in {Maxous / tex / Klick / moz} just from basic scumteam theory. I'm also really surprised that RC scumreads me, the distance from my scumgame here is extremely easy to identify
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Post Post #1706 (isolation #34) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I'm willing to lynch tex today. RC seems more inclined for that than he was earlier. If town then we can go moz. I assume if tex flips town I become townier just because of the paucity of plausible scumpartners for me. If moz is town then we probably just lose.

If tex flips scum I'm anticipating that town has enough wiggle room with 2 in a row down. I'll just eat the lynch and wash my hands of this game.

If we lynch moz today and moz flips scum then that probably means like, IDK, something like Beef/Athena/tex for consideration. Klick's townier. Maxous, I don't know.

If moz flips town, then go tex and perhaps we proceed from there as outlined, except maybe I'll want to stay alive if tex is scum because we lost an extra town.
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Post Post #1710 (isolation #35) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:54 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1709, RadiantCowbells wrote:why did you suddenly get super demoralized when I expressed support for the same lynch that you did and stopped voting someone you thought was town?
Because based on the names that are coming up and the big wagons I expect the remaining lynches to be all in that group. I'm not super demoralized (see: the remainder of that post), I'm saying if we only lynch lurkers I think we should prepare for a potential loss here.
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Post Post #1712 (isolation #36) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:59 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Okay, to elaborate-- it's definitely possible that it's just lurker scum. But in my experience that's usually not how it works. Given the atmosphere of D1, usually one scum gets off their ass and tries to do work because, I guess, they don't want to throw the game. Maybe that person is moz ehhh ufghgg
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Post Post #1715 (isolation #37) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:14 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

shrug-- yeah, that's fair. I guess I'll wait on scum Beef/Athena/Thor until after a flip (Beef > Thor > Athena vaguely towniest to scummiest)

I'll say if we just take my recent content I'm participating fine (in terms of how engaged I am. You all probably find the quality of my content more lacking, based on various shade thrown my way.)
So, unless you want me to just make a flood of posts to make up for me being AWOL for a week?
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Post Post #1717 (isolation #38) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:29 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I know I'm might be doing stupid point scoring here, so feel free to yell at me after this if it comes across that way., but I'm reading your discussion with RC as just long winded PoE. I don't think you're scumhunting. That is not to say you're posting empty stuff- I just think it's very apparent that we're in a pretty static gamestate right now (case in point: Klick proposes a new wagon, you quickly shut it down saying that the lynch is in Tex, Moz, me).

No new developments are really gonna happen, aside from Klick's case, I suppose.

I've expressed my preference. I've expressed where I want to go from here. Moz and tex aren't saying anything right now. I don't think you're achieving anything. I'm very ready to move forward here, and I've expressed my intent on where I focus considering where that takes us.
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Post Post #1719 (isolation #39) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:45 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

actually here. something to do.
preflip associations on someone who isn't going to flip today!
In post 1707, Klick wrote:EP, picture a world where COA flips scum. Who's a viable third to that team?
You're pretty incompatible, clearly. tex is, to a lesser extent but that doesn't have a ton of weight (Athena has expressed some pressure on there but without a bunch of claws) Beefster is somewhat in the middle of you and tex on the scale of "how likely is this scumread on the other person a bus?"

moz is probably less compatible than Max. Assuming, sort of, conventional-ish scum play here, it's probably more likely that athena expresses what she does on Maxous ("I think he's town but shrug") vs. moz ("super town very confident here").

Thor, I guess, when looking at only associatives, works viably. not a lot of talking about thor. read expressed: "I'm fine calling thor town."
So in conclusion, something like Klick > Beef > tex > moz > Max > Thor, just pure associative wise, town to scum? Am I missing anyone?
If I had to say, I'd objectively put me around Beef.

--

Thor, here

My POE:
I'll lynch in tex/moz only today. Tex over moz. Will read back post flip to see where I place Max but I'm sticking with town currently here. Won't lynch Beef. Will lynch you and Athena with roughly equivalent level of willingness (that is to say, next sorting priority after tex/moz deal gets solved but have no real reasons to scumread either of you). Most of this is a rehashing of previous posts.

I guess one thing to mention is that with Klick suddenly jumping in here with a sudden curveball case + the thing about voting mozamis (which despite my doubts is more likely town than scum), he's def more towny than he was beginning D2 and I think i've expressed that before?

Your shutting down wagon: No, I do not have a read on that.

External loci of control: I guess we'll see. I'm working with a certain degree of confidence that I am not the lynch today, and there will hopefully be associatives to work with, things to do after a flip and game is revitalized. Ultimately, I'm gonna say that's future me's problem. As for now, I'll do what I can.
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Post Post #1744 (isolation #40) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:35 am

Post by Errantparabola »

ready to go 3 for 3, team?
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Post Post #1746 (isolation #41) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:41 am

Post by Errantparabola »

The case
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Post Post #1800 (isolation #42) » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:16 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I'm going to walk through a series of questions with you, CoA. Please answer them to the best of your ability.

1) How confident are you that I am 3rd scum?
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Post Post #1818 (isolation #43) » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:10 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1801, CultOfAthena wrote:Reasonably so, and more than the other potential candidates.
Would you be willing to get lynched today if, hypothetically, it guaranteed my lynch tomorrow?
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Post Post #1828 (isolation #44) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:31 am

Post by Errantparabola »

lynching order is CoA -> Klick -> Max for me but I want to go back and read again on moz wagon shift to tex wagon because that's prob crucial to look at
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Post Post #1835 (isolation #45) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:09 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

VOTE: CultOfAthena
hammer if you want/have nothing else for this day. i dont find it particularly appealing to draw it out
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Post Post #1836 (isolation #46) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:13 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

UNVOTE:
Athena is digging in pretty hard on her EP read. It's her easiest shot at staying engaged and active in a gamestate that is very hostile to her currently. So that is a very plausible floundering scum.

Last question before I vote again, Athena: what do you think the intent behind my line of questioning was?
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Post Post #1872 (isolation #47) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:19 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

VOTE: CultOfAthena
L-1.

Klick is probably town:
- Deflects away from tex/moz in D2 with a pretty strong conviction on Athena scum. This is scummy in a vacuum but take into account the following:
- Slowrolls the Athena wagon with yet another turnaround onto trying to start an EP wagon. If this is scum then it is a very unexpectedly patient move. I'd say scum very rarely take this route, rather than just sticking to a very established foundation on Athena scum (from Klick's POV) and pushing this wagon through.
- This move displays a rare amount of forethought in scum play (that would ultimately be towards giving Klick the momentum to take scum victory) and people should decide whether they think that it happens here. I lean strongly towards no.

Beef/Thor is town:
- There was active bussing going on in a 2-person scumteam on Day 2. Ultimately this would be done knowing texcat would die and they 1v1 in thread to give the other partner the longevity required to endgame. It's an unnecessarily risky strategy that should in most gamestates be tabled until Day 3 or Day 4.
- I think the Tex lynch was a very unexpected route for town to take in the end. with moz being pushed so heavily and constantly. The people driving that are probably town. I think the possibility that it's a bus is non-negligible.

Moz is potential scum but it would require a bit of an odd D2 situation. I second Klick on Max but I thiiiink I would lynch him before moz.

The intent behind my line of questions to Athena: as third scum getting lynched ends the game. Third scum would not be willing to get lynched under any circumstance. Town might be willing to get lynched, especially if they thought that it would result in a gamewinning lynch for town next day. I would have actually thought that this line of questioning was obvious enough (RC did something similar to me in Space Invaders I think) and I expected for Athena to say something like "yeah I'd be willing to get lynched but I'd rather just lynch you now first" or something like that. Unsure what to make of her response.

I still think her behavior is very much cornered scum still. I think Klick's point about pronouns is maybe salient but not significantly telling. Doesn't necessarily have to be a faked townslip. Could be a mistake. I'm just going to move forward with this wagon.
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Post Post #1909 (isolation #48) » Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:28 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Thor and Beef are doing all of my defending for me, mwahaha.

I think
VOTE: Maxous
is the play.

If this is a townflip then I think the lynch is actually between Athena and Thor.
Athena is correct in that I am not confident that her lynch ends the game.
Still willing to hammer her if someone L-1s and will do so when that happens.
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Post Post #1913 (isolation #49) » Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:01 am

Post by Errantparabola »

er, yeah. you on the texcat lynch completely slipped my mind. You're with Beef. Sorry.
In post 1910, Thor665 wrote:If you agree that Athena's core suspicion of you is correct then why do you think she's likely to be scum exactly?
??? Athena has expressed many reasons why I'm scum. Furthermore agreeing with her on this does not necessarily mean that she isn't scum? My reasons for that are independent of her case on me
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Post Post #1919 (isolation #50) » Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:24 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

can't wait to be yelled at by the dead thread for playing like shit ;)
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Post Post #1953 (isolation #51) » Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:48 am

Post by Errantparabola »

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Anyone who has an inkling of a scumread outside of Athena, me, Maxous:
1) explain why you have that scumread (which I assume is on mozamis, the most likely scum outside of those three)
2) explain why you aren't willing to hop on whatever wagon finishes the day already, lynch down the line, and win, instead of draining town energy.

let's. do. something.
lynch me for all i care. I've been begging for death since day 2. I'll be the first to say that the bussing logic holds no weight. I don't think it clears me (and in a vacuum doesn't clear anyone else for that matter). The answer to "why would scum make a losing move" can be "because people will ask that question."
do it. just someone hammer someone.

Let's face it, Flubber and Klick and I are basically active lurking. Beefster has openly said that he wants this game to end. Thor, I appreciate you and you trying to make discussion here but look at how many people have already said they're going to stay on their votes.

Maxous: "nope staying on athena."
Beef: "what do i have to do to convince you to vote coa?"
CoA: "fairly confident the game ends when EP is lynched."
mozamis: "i don't understand people's resistance to EP."
Flubber: "my desired lynch is going through."

Thor, I'm sure you'll get peeved at me for having this opinion and for constantly being that annoying wet blanket who says we're not getting anywhere. But I really do think that. We're just going in circles and since the wagons are sitting there we're just talking about the same old associatives. everyone has expressed opinions on everyone. end the day. end the god damn day.
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Post Post #1956 (isolation #52) » Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:58 am

Post by Errantparabola »

1) At least do me the courtesy of not brushing off the first two questions, then. Or don't, I don't anticipate this discussion being particularly productive, and apparently neither do you.
2) I think it's a little ridiculous that you would call this tunneling or bad play. Both wagons have some plausible sense of going through (except for the one you're on!) and have been discussed by all parties on said wagons. I guess you could call it tunneling. Organized mass tunneling. A wagon, if you will.
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Post Post #1959 (isolation #53) » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:38 am

Post by Errantparabola »

What do you mean by not advanced?
Also, I would say believing the game is almost certainly won for town already and throwing the game are two different things. I dont mind getting lynched because its in the pool of people that will get us there. But whatever.
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
--implosion
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Post Post #1960 (isolation #54) » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:42 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Are you no longer willing to flip Max and Athena in either order then?
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
--implosion
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Post Post #1963 (isolation #55) » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:58 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1961, Thor665 wrote:I've advanced the idea that last scum is CoA or Max.
So why would I answer those questions?
Are you reluctant to hammer Athena because Flubber will have some good content to contribute today before dying?
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
--implosion
provided
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Errantparabola
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Post Post #2002 (isolation #56) » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:35 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Sorry if I was a bit of a shit this game, everyone.
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
--implosion
provided

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