Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Mathdino]

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

I'll very lightly show my work. Enough for math people to discredit me if I get it wrong. I'm probably not gonna walk you personally through it though sorry.

The remaining possibilities are T, TTT, and TTTTT. SK only occurs on odd playercount. 7 T's impossible due to Tracker death. One letter reserved for Tracker. 6 letters remain.

Txxxxx has 6C1 = 6 permutations.
TTTxxx has 6C3 = 20 permutations.
TTTTTx has 6C5 = 6 permutations.

We treat "T" and "not T" as a coin flip. 50/50 shot. This means that T and x have equal chance of occurring. This simplifies calculations.

Chance of 1 T: 6/32 = 19%
Chance of 3 Ts: 20/32 = 62.5%
Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%

And that's your distribution.

Note that this only applies from the TOTAL OBSERVER perspective. If you yourself are a VT, the probabilities change exceptionally slightly in ways that I can't be bothered to calculate. If you are a PR (not asking), that obviously massively changes the calculations. Hell, I'll do that too just in case.

From the perspective of a PR:

Txxxx has 5C1 = 5 permutations
TTTxx has 5C3 = 10 permutations
TTTTT has 5C5 = just 1 permutation

Chance of 1 T: 31%
Chance of 3 Ts: 62.5%
Chance of 5 Ts: 6%

So like. We probably have 3 Ts and 4 PRs.

Edit: WOW WHAT A GREAT IDEA ITS NOT LIKE I THOUGHT OF THAT ALREADY

[Mathdino]

So like. We probably have 3 Ts and 4 PRs.

We can’t be in TTT because there’s no bus driver in that setup.

Come on Math.

You're correct, of course (and also fuck you).

An easy way to fix that is to just remove the TTT probabilities and find the ratio between the ones remaining.

From the perspective of a spectator

:

Txxxxx and TTTTTx are of equal probability. 50/50.

From the perspective of a VT

:

I really don't give a shit about this one honestly. But yeah being a VT makes TTTTTx of slightly higher probability. Any VT flips slightly increase that.

From the perspective of a PR

:

Either you're literally the only PR left or there are many left.

Txxxx has 5C1 = 5 permutations
TTTTT has 1 permutation.

There's a 5/6 = 83% chance of 1 T.
There's a 1/6 = 16% chance of 5 Ts.

[Mathdino]

Wait fuck we're in potential MyLo if there are 3 mafia and 1 SK. What we need is a way of finding out, without the lone power role just outing themselves.

We also need PoE. I think a partial massclaim is in order. We only need one claim to definitively prove the 1T theory.

If you are any of the following roles, please ONLY ONE OF YOU (ideally the scummiest) claim now so we know:

1-shot Tracker
1-shot Commuter
Vengeful
Vigilante
Gunsmith

My logic is that 5 PRs remaining MUST be distributed among Investigation, Protection, Hiding, Killing, and Flavour Cop. Since we already have a dead investigation, one of these categories MUST have doubles by Pigeonhole Principle.

I obviously claim none of those or I would've said something by now.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP:

Add Tracker to the end of that list

. A50 being dead means a 2nd tracker is a doppelganger.

[Mathdino]

i'm really not at the top of my game in this game

We're not in MyLo because we lynched scum. I was doing the math as if we'd lynched town.

Still, if we lynch town today that puts us in 6v2v1 and 2 town deaths creates a 4v2v1 LyLo in which we're forced to try to hit the SK, which is gross. I think it's important to know what setup we're playing.

[Mathdino]

No yeah we're currently in 7v2v1, I fucked up, that's not LyLo/MyLo at all.

That said I still believe anyone with a role in that list should claim.

It's extremely important to remaining scumhunting to know if the mafia team has 3 members or 2.

If it has 3, and we have 5 town PRs remaining, this game might be breakable by massclaim.

Edit: Town lynch today results in LyLo. That much is clear.

[Mathdino]

I only started to make that conclusion due correcting the original fuckup.

I originally thought 1T, 3T, and 5T were the possible setups. 3T was the reasonable assumption in that case. I was thinking about massclaim but I figured there would be numerous setups that wouldn't be breakable and there is a scum strategy that could get around it (obviously not telling).

Impede corrected me to 1T and 5T.

I need to know whether we have 2 mafia left or 1 mafia. I don't intend to massclaim right now. It's a mass "Claim one of the roles in that list, or not one of the roles in that list". Doesn't even have to be specific.

If someone is one of those roles, we're in 1T with 2 mafia and 1 SK.

If NO ONE is one of those roles, I'll redo the calculations, but it almost certainly puts us in 5T with 1 mafia and 1 SK.

I've been through the wringer in the open queue for people calling my strategies rolefishing. You don't know me if you think I'd ever suggest a claiming strategy that I couldn't defend, and isn't strictly beneficial to town. It's an Open, anyone can poke holes in my logic.

[Mathdino]

Also keep in mind mafia now roughly knows our setup anyway.

This fact may put some earlier D1 interactions/discussions in a different light. Not saying more for now.

At the very least it's certain that

Vigilantes should claim

.

[Mathdino]

First of all, I have, at no point, implied I'm VT. I have no idea where you're getting that from at all.

I'm surprised you see no benefit in knowing if we have 2 mafia or 1 mafia. If you don't see the benefit, I'm surprised you don't see how I would see such a benefit.

Too much information. Messes up a conceivable amount of times with the setup spec but one thing remains consistent is that we are xv2v1. TTTTT is still a potential at a 50% rate. If Math is VT then he should lean even more heavily that we are TTTTT which only has 2 mafia and an SK. Making our current setup 8v1v1. But Math heavily believes we are 7v2v1.

This is ridiculous.

1. I have specific reasons, right now, to be wary of 7v2v1 that I will literally explain to you in ~8 hours. fitz will be able to confirm. I honestly kind of hate SKs.

2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.

3. Please quote the sections where you think I believe we are in 7v2v1. I did the extra "If you are a PR" calculations to help further inform people who aren't gonna be able to their own math.

4. And please explain exactly why you think my strategy hurts town.

5. As a final note, if I were VT, I would do more than a couple things to lowkey imply I'm a PR to WIFOM the NK, as I'm obviously a NKable person. Furthermore, if I were a PR, I'd talk about or make it look like I'm WIFOMing the NK to further WIFOM the NK. You don't know what I am. I've breadcrumbed my specific role already, and I guarantee with my massive ISO neither you or scum is gonna be able to find it. But yeah, I've prepped for this.

Every time in Open Games. "MATH IS SCUM FOR A STRATEGY THAT MAKES ME FEEL ICKY" without addressing the strategy. Love it.

[Mathdino]

Literally your last two corrections to your assumptions are quoting only we are in xv2v1 and ignoring xv1v1 you made an assumption I even mentioned for you to double check your math. You did. And have chosen to post a lot of "content" asking for certain claims to be made under scrutiny of us being under 1t and not 5t.

1. Oh haha. That's gonna leave a mark. Deserves an explanation. Yeah I mean the best response to that that I have is that I wouldn't scumslip like that as scum. I've faked townslips before. Most of the time, I fake and am hyperaware of slips in relation to the possible categories I could be in. So for example, right now, since I could be either VT or PR to scum, I'm faking the potential to be either. As scum, because I could be either town or scum to town, I fake townslips. My towngame is, admittedly, hugely overreliant on slips, which is ironic, because I've only ever "scumslipped" as town. My 2nd game I got mislynched for constantly assuming 3 scum to everyone.

So my argument is that I'm hyperaware of slips constantly as long as they're relevant to me, and I'm not concerned with avoiding scumslips as town. So the only reason I would do such a thing like that as scum is to try to gain towncred for it by being like "ACTUALLY ITS A TOWNSLIP". It's up to you whether that's what I'm doing.

The thought progression that led to it:
In 1151 just by talking about it, I started getting massively paranoid of the 3 mafia 1 SK setup. Clock is ticking for my ability to fully explain where my paranoia suddenly came from. If anyone still cares, I will explain that. And at the time (thinking there were potentially 3 mafia alive), had anyone claimed one of the roles on my list, I'd start giving Impede shit for trying to policy lynch someone in MyLo.

When I corrected myself in 1153, I was talking about the worst case scenario (because I often start tunneling the worst case scenario). I realised, however, that we can actually afford a mislynch maybe, so I made a mental note to not give Impede shit for that. Note at the end of my post I continued with my idea of wanting to know if we were actually in this bad scenario.

You asked me in 1155 to double check my math. I assume this is because you were checking for a scumslip. At the very least if I do get lynched for this (or, more likely, shot by the SK), this clears you as town, which is fantastic for my PoE VCA.

When I read it (in 1157), I thought you completely misunderstood my post (by reading too fast) and thought I was suggesting we have 6 townies alive

under that bad scenario

. I clarified with "No yeah we're

currently

in 7v2v1", assuming you would understand that I meant we'd have 6 townies alive

after a mislynch

. When I said I fucked up, I didn't mean I fucked up by saying 6v2v1 (as that's after mislynch), I was trying to clarify to you what the point of my correction was in 1153. You'll see again that I'm very interested to know how many mafia we have left.

Responding to strategy in a sec.

[Mathdino]

As a final addendum, if we prove by lack of claims that we're definitively in 5T (god I hope so), will that be good enough to you to clear me from that argument? If everyone pops in here and claims "I'm not any of those roles", I'll run the stats on the setups again, and I believe I can show that 5T is almost guaranteed from the spectator's perspective.

It fishes people who don't have a solid grasp of the setup or possible setups into admitting they may or may not have a roll. If you are the sole other mafia member calling for any amount of claiming under the premise we are in xv2v1 gives you a called shot and if you have one partner left you know that there is at least one of the roles you mentioned and you call it forward and if you manage to get lucky and pull an investigative (basically all of the ones you listed) and we are under 1t your JOAT can take a strongarm shot through protective rendering our newly claimed Town investigative more moot while waiting yourself up well enough as town leader.

Thanks for addressing the actual setup stuff. In terms of fishing people who don't have a solid grasp, I think EVERYONE should admit they may or may not have a role (WIFOM), and would be pretty vigilant in policing people to only claim yes/no to the roles in that list. My expectation is that most people are resistant to any types of claiming anyway, but c'est la vie.

If you're willing to follow, I'll show why scum would have a difficult time benefiting.

If I am the sole mafia member: Then it is literally almost impossible for most of those roles to exist (1-shot Tracker is the only possible one). That is why I'm asking only for those roles. If you'd like me to go through each role, let me know.

If I am in a 2 person mafia team: This is where it gets interesting. I don't know what you mean by "call it forward". On the suggestion that I would strongmankill whomever claims, why would I not have used the strongmankill on Jay? Knowing there are so many power roles (because I'd know it's 1T), wouldn't that be the correct time to use it? Ninja is useless because tracker is useless. And if I'm scum, unless you think my partner is in Jay's kill list, I have no reason to roleblock him and stop the vig.

To go through each roll I suggested:
1- shot Tracker: I would be really surprised if they hadn't used this already. Another part of the reason I wanted this claim is because I'm interested this result. Anyway if they already had used this, they function as a named townie, which isn't an ideal kill and would also prob be protected.

1-shot Commuter: Can avoid strongman kills and kills in general. Can also WIFOM when exactly they did or will commute. 1-shot Commuter claim is anti-scum.

Vengeful: Vengefuls should be lynched anyway. They didn't counterclaim Jay yesterday so I'm confident this doesn't exist.

Vigilante: HIGHLY suspect. I'd probably just lynch this unless we have a Vengeful to back this up. This is almost impossible.

Gunsmith: I will give you this, but it relies on 2 letters in the setup coming out of a 5% probability, which has a *gets calculator* ~3.0% probability.

Tracker: I will also give you this, but that relies on 2 MORE letters in the setup being a I (besides A50's I), which has a *gets calculator* ~9.8% probability. So not bad I guess.

So my conclusion is that my idea is only pro-scum if there's another Tracker out there.

Do you believe that I would attempt to implement a plan to benefit scum without doing prior calculations as to whether it's strictly anti-scum?
Furthermore, do you think I wouldn't try to use a massclaim to confirm myself in some way (whether by results or PoE)?
FURTHERMORE, if there are 5 PRs left (and 3/10 scum), do you really not think a massclaim would be a MASSIVE benefit? My intention if someone claims one of the roles I listed is to poll the town as to whether they want to create a massclaim that PoE's scum down so hard that scum/SK can't whittle down the confirmeds faster than we can lynch them. Many 1T setups under this semi-open are near breakable. It would depend on what the claims are.

[Mathdino]

Hey Ghost. Please let us know of your catchup strategy because I'm gonna have problems reading you if I don't know what you're planning (I don't blame you if you don't read all 48 pages but you should have some plan).

7 T's is impossible because our Tracker got shot.

[Mathdino]

VC 1.17

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Creature (4) -

JaydragonKing, RedFlavor, momo, Almost50

Assemblerotws (3) -

Mathdino, Impede, Hawk

Impede (2) -

Kop, havingfitz

JaydragonKing (1) -

Assemblerotws

Almost50 (1) -

UnabombaH

RedFlavor (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Not voting

- Creature

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-01-12 08:00:00)

I'm willing to bet, based on the trajectory of the day, that bussing isn't going on here.

That indicates to me that there's scum in {Assemble, Impede, Hawk}, scum in {Creature, RedFlavor, A50}, and then a final scum that's been in our townbloc the whole time. Probably someone in {Impede, Kop, fitz, Una}.

I still like this PoE. For those of you watching at home, by my own analysis, from a spectator's point of view, I'm in the {Assemble, Impede, Hawk} section.

If there's 1 mafia left, that implicates the Impede wagon and RedFlavor.

2 mafia implies, I think, {Screenplay, Impede, Hawk} and {Impede, Kop, fitz, Una, Red}.

Now that Kop is here, I have absolutely no motivation to complete the Kopcase, and will post the draft I had saved below for bookkeeping.

Spoiler:

Ok this is honestly kind of a lolcase because the only real candidates for lynch yesterday were Jay, Creature, and Impede. Jay is town, Creature is scum. Impede is probably town. It stands to reason that at least one counterwagoner is scum, and it's not Hawk.

Can you elaborate on some of these, because this is striking me as forced reads. Your accusing me of looking forced, this is more forced shit rather than actual reads.
[snip]
Overall, reading these reads, I don't think they are actually genuine reads right now, and is just trying to look active.

I'm obviously biased here, but I honestly believe that going after early contributors is anti-town because it disincentivises town activity.

@math I understand your reason by how or why you've posted the reads, I just felt they were forced rather than actual reads. Some of them I didn't agree with but I'll follow your thoughts and see how you progress with them.

Haven't really dug into the game yet but on a quick skim everyone's still pretty null.

Nice to see familiar faces tho. How have you guys been? Did y'all miss me? Fitz, kop, momo, and creature?

Nice to see you again hawk. It's been a while.

Scum aren’t likely to come to the direct defense of a partner. Esp D1.

I do agree that Math’s reads seem a bit stretchy, but I don’t think it’s AI just yet, as he could just be trying to stimulate discussion.

Why do you think they won't? How would you know that scum won't, because in reality they can do it at any stage, unless that person they are defending is within lynch territory which they won't openly defend, they will let them go if that is the way the tide is going. But at this stage only Jay is within lynch territory so any defending right now of anyone doesn't spell out they can't be scum because they won't defend someone, especially on day one.

VOTE: Impede

This is a wagon outside of Jay/red that I'd like to take off. I don't necessarily scum read Jay, but I just feel he's being hard pressed into a mislynch, I just don't think scum would be that stupid to focus all of the attention onto themselves in the manner he has done since gamestart. I obviously wouldn't like to think that we could possibly go into LYLO with him but I'm wanting to go into different areas rather than focus on him for days on end.

Impede on the other hand, has given me nothing to note that I could town read him for, and I do like the case Fitz has put out against Impede. Last few pages that I have been reading, his name was popping out quite a bit. His vote on Jay doesn't make any sense to me at all, I wouldn't call it opportunistic, it felt more of a let go vote. If this wagon takes off and Impede flips scum, I would 100% go back for Jay because of how that vote felt to me.

Another point I didn't quite work out, he stated that he would hide behind Momo, why would you hide behind Momo considering he had him in his town read in post #152? Why would you not hide behind Fitz, or Una who you were scum reading? I understand hiding behind your town reads would give you a better chance of living, but also confirming your reads, doesn't give anything to gamestate because you don't really confirm anything, because you could be scum lying about being the hider and the hider might not even be in the game.

@Jay, Creature is null for me. I've played with Creature a few times, and in most of them, he wasn't entirely active so it's hard for me to get a lock on read on him. It's 50/50 if I was to vote for him to be the next lynch. Unless he shows me a sign that he is scum, I will act upon it.

Quick thing, I picked fitz first and I encouraged everyone to pick different hider targets so it wouldn't draw the NK to any one person in particular.

Impede case isn't bad. It's convinced me out of a townread. Hasn't convinced me into a scumread. I see a lot of flak for his interaction with Jay, which I actually like. Seems natural to me.

How do you read Impede right now?

I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.

I'm still happy with where my vote is right now, Impede hasn't eased my read on him. A lot that I've seen just seems too OMGUS for me, and just only attempts to go for the next easiest thing that keeps things attention going in a different direction.

First he goes for Jay, with weak ass reasoning. I'm sure I read somewhere someone asking Impede what he got that made him vote for Jay, and I read through Impedes ISO and he never answered to it. Jay was already on 4 votes at the time and that's the way the game was heading, Impede just giving it a gentle push for it to be closer to a lynch.

He then votes for Assemble after Dino votes and says sheep. This to me, is buddying Dino who is a strong town read of everyone virtually. Scum like to buddy up in any possibility that they are able too.

Then the worst of it all, now attention is turning onto Impede, Creature is on 4 votes, and low and behold, here comes a Creature vote to put Creature on L-2. And this is after Dino gives Impede a bone by mentioning interactions with Impede/Creature and suddenly he votes for Creature. This is like a last ditch attempt to save his own skin because he believes he has been caught.

If he can actually build up a better case that will prove that he just isn't going for the easiest route I might change my read on him, but from everything I've seen, the whole OMGUS cases he's throwing around, jumping on the easiest bandwagons with weak reasons, and attempts at buddying, he's my highest scum read.

@Kop:
Why would I be guilty of OMGUS after calling out Jay for it in like 5 separate posts?
I DID explain my vote rationale in response to Jay asking about it. Are you willfully ignoring this?
I didn’t say sheep because I was sheeping, I said it to get OTHERS to sheep me.
Are you this inept??? He accuses me of bussing/defending Creature at various points, so then I proceed to pay. MORE attention to Creature and VOTE HIM?! How the hell can you perceive this as an attempt at getting attention off of myself?!
You’re not getting anymore rationale than I’ve already given you (lots). If you have a specific question, I’m happy to entertain you, but this entire line of thought is utterly ill-conceived and I resent it heavily enough that I’d rather see you be wrong than try to change your mind.
Wagon me if you want. I’ll make an effort to ignore your inane rationale and go on with scumhunting.
I recognize that bringing up the Scum!Kop and Scum!Math potential LOOKS LIKE OMGUS. But your rationale looks so bullshitty to me and NO ONE ELSE is calling it out, so wtf am I supposed to do, just take a lynch? Very well. That’s what I’ll do going forward.

Math was the first to vote for Assemble, so in reality, nobody was/would sheep you because you were sheeping Maths rational thinking. Whilst I agree Assemble needs pressure for his vote, but you jumped on because it just seemed right at the time, and wouldn't bring you any unwanted attention.

Your vote on Creature is an attempt to take attention of yourself, it isn't that hard to see. You only paid attention to Creature and voted for him because Math was putting you in the situation that was tying you to Creature, so in aid for that to be dissolved, it was then that you started to put your focus on Creature, also this was when attention was turning onto you (also note that Impede was slightly behind Creature in the votes). Pushing the creature wagon closer to the lynch may help you in time because people may think with Creature being closer to the lynch than you, they may opt to go to the biggest thing going, creature.

Your play doesn't tell me that you are actively trying to locate scum, it is showing me that you are just simply going with what others are echoing and your reasons for doing so are weak. I will hold my hands up if you flip green and say that I am wrong, but from what I'm seeing, I don't have high confidence that your town.

@Math I understand you are clearing him as a town read because his general play is consistent with his town meta, from previous games. However I am not willing to give him a pass simply because we don't have a scum meta that others can divulge into. He could simply be playing to his town meta when he could easily be scum.

This is one of my sole reasons I don't tend to use meta to get a read on someone, I'd rather get my reads from how they are playing in this game, rather than previous games. People evolve, and they gain more experience on how to play this game. You could easily be duped into believing he is playing his town game.

For example, Fitz voted for me in RVS and made out that I was a possible policy lynch based on his experience with me in previous games.

It basically relied on him counterwagoning Creature with Impede and some weird early game stuff. That was pretty much it.

Screenplay is a significantly better vote. Everyone on Assemble's wagon is (I'm almost positive) town.

VOTE: Screenplay

[Mathdino]

I'll do it. I brag about Open games like notches on my bedpost. Check my game history. Following is all of my completed Opens:

I broke Hard Boiled by forcing the Hider to claim. Then someone claimed my role (in an attempt to avoid my setupbreak) and I WIFOM'd the shit out of them all day. Won.

I hardbroke Stack the Deck as IC. It's a semi-open with a set list of possible town PRs. Scum claimed PR and I made a confirmation circle that resulted in scum basically choking and giving up. One got vigged.

I PR hunted Pick Your Power X/Y as town and figured out who half the roles were, deducing which ones were town. Ended up getting vigged (after I was fucking cop cleared) because the vig couldn't figure out how I knew he was vig. Dumb. But we won.

I created a strategy in Noughts and Crosses Mafia that would lead to an EXTREMELY likely win for town. They ended up losing in LyLo.

While we're at it, I even broke mastin's bastard Hilariously Imbalanced Mafia also by getting PRs to confirm each other. Scum choked.

The setups that I did not break:

Mason-based setups. Impossible to break. Lost Friends & Enemies Mafia.

Hope Plus One is unbreakable. I can't remember what I did here, but I'm pretty sure I filled up 10 pages arguing with my scumpartner about some dumb shit. I did not request any claims, but I'm amazing at PR hunting and just shot them all at night and won.

Enemy of my Enemy is multiball which is shit. And I was scum. That's the game where I faked a townslip. Got shot by the other team and lost.

[Mathdino]

I also tried to semibreak Diffusion of Power but got killed N1 for my efforts and town lost.

I have no memory nor the effort to go check my own open games, but it's fucking hilarious how opposed people are to my strategies in every game.

[Mathdino]

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How the hell do we know there's an SK!??!?!?!?!?! No one has answered this for me. FFS

You a vig?

If there is a vig, mafia shot A50 and I guess we'll do NKA on that weird scenario.

If there's not, mafia shot Jay (because Jay is a bigger threat to mafia than to SK) and SK shot A50.

Vigilantes should have claimed by now. Last chance to claim that shot. Please otherwise post "not vig" when you can.

Jay should've been cc'd yesterday. Very fact that he wasn't makes me doubt there's a vig.

[Mathdino]

sheep and Impede were clearly not vig. fitz did the "if there's a vig" spiel and Una argued mafia killed vig and SK killed A50. Hawk asked for people to claim the shot.

Only possible vigs left are Kop, momo, and Screenplay

. Assemble moved off Jay on vigclaim so it's really just Kop or momo.

With that certainty, let's get back to work.

[Mathdino]

I guess they could have if they were stupid.

SK most likely took a bulletproof (do they have a choice in this setup?). I forget what the other power was.

Given that, if Jay jayvigged the SK, everyone would be like "Oh well, must've been roleblocked or JK fucked it for some reason". SK is not in danger.

Furthermore, Jay has a chance of vigging mafia, since his suspects were well suspected anyway. FURTHERMORE, SK can potentially get Jay lynched by saying "lol Jay is just SK".

Vig is a much higher danger to mafia than SK. It would be crazy to kill the vig as SK. And mafia would be crazy not to kill the vig.

[Mathdino]

On a related note, Momo/Fitz/Red is officially my three potential shots. Stating it now, so kindly prepare around that.

Screenplay, I see where you're going with this.

You're suggesting there's mafia or SK in one of these 3?

[Mathdino]

Kop's the vig or no one is.

On second thought, it doesn't make sense for mafia to shoot him just because there's mafia in his shootpool. If they were concerned about getting shot, they would either JOAT RB him or not be able to do anything about it anyway. I"m not sure his pool is indicative of anything. They probably just felt threatened by a confirmed townie with the possibility of killing them later.

[Mathdino]

@Math...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?

All 3 of you fucked up in the same way. You didn't see that I had already directed A50's hider target, and he had, a long time ago, agreed to hide behind whoever Creature chose to hide behind if we lynched Creature.

This is not something that mafia doesn't notice. I'm townreading Una/Hawk already and I find it hard to believe fitz and some other mafia member doesn't catch that since it's literally in my last posts of the day. Now that only works if there's 2 mafia left, which I had been assuming for a while.

So basically either both mafia fucked that up somehow (meaning both mafia in the 3 of you) or neither did, because one of you would've been corrected by the other one in trying to decide the NK.

@Math...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any?

Scum already knows whether we have 1T or 5T. We don't. This is a massive scumhunting disadvantage and is evidenced by the above "neither or both" idea, which only works under 1T. Plus I'm pretty sure I can break the setup if this is 1T. Unfortunately this looks like it's gonna be a group super resistant to claims.
Honestly what's probably gonna happen at this point is whomever's on the stand will claim a PR and this will lead to desired massclaimesque strategy anyway to prove/disprove them.

Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?

I was asked to calculate the probability of each setup. Made a few mistakes but found that, to an observer, 1T vs 5T is 50/50.

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

Look I'm trying to rule out 2T but if you keep waffling on claiming vig then I have no idea. The longer we wait, the significantly more effective it'll be for mafia/SK to fuck up our setup spec through planning and believable fakeclaiming. I'm at the point where I straight up won't believe any vigs that ever claim (and will assume they're SK instead) if you don't definitively claim in the next post.

Damnit Math...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?

[catty]hey dude if you're vig then dying tonight is pro-town based on switch [/catty]

If there's a vig then we know there's no SK, which means we're for sure in 2T. This is a HUGE advantage when the inevitable massclaim comes because we'll be able to popcorn and sort everyone into potential PRs and VTs. This creates lynchpools. If scum all claims VT, then all our PRs (as long as the setup makes sense) are confirmed. If scum starts claiming some PRs, we'll know (because the setup won't make sense), and then we either confirm all the PRs or see if any scum can still be VTs. I've thought this through, lol.

Vig should probably be protected tonight if there is one but I really heavily don't believe there's a vig based on dayplay thus far so I'm really not concerned with people claiming not vig.

I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????

This is a pretty good tl;dr of what I'm trying to do. Most semi-opens are broken in half by massclaim if enough PRs are alive.

I've given up on getting everyone to claim from my fancy list because clearly a bunch of people are gonna decide it's more worth their time to argue with me over it than do the simple process. If we find scum, they'll probably claim PR, and that's good enough for me.

Oh...and

I am not the vig

.

But if I was I wouldn't tell you.

This is ridiculous. If you're on the stand and claim vig later you won't be believed (no reason to think you're not SK, and you should've cc'd Jay). Please be clear.

[Mathdino]

Game also works better with more wagoms
Vote Screenplay, literally everyone on that wagon except Red and sheep are town

[Mathdino]

Honestly I believe that people on the lynch wagon are probably getting shot systematically anyway

Let's look off it

[Mathdino]

Remember btw that the Jay wagon was by far more likely than any
Red voting Creature is kinda weird given that

Someone analyse the Jay wagon please, that was equivalent to a day ending town flip

[Mathdino]

Tbh based on NK alone SK is probably Impede
So we should get that checked

[Mathdino]

like it's probably impede or una actually since they're both clearly not mafia
idk if una kills his scumreads as scum tho

and yeah fitz is weird but one of you 3 is gonna get shot i'm sure so i don't really care about looking there yet

can i get a good case on scum-motivation-sheep that makes this more than a policy lynch
he's annoying by default but that's not lynchworthy in itself. null-scum to me

reads list (for mafia not SK)

momo
Hawk
Impede
Una

fitz
sheep
Ghost (by slot not by her)

Kop
Screenplay

Kop/Screenplay would be a weird fucking team so I'm not doing the momo-style "All my scumreads are scum" thing. But Screenplay seems most likely to flip scum.

[Mathdino]

1. The Creature wagon looks all town and the Jay wagon does not.
2. Assemble's slot and disinterest are scummy as fuck.
3. Screenplay emerged as a brief counterwagon to Jay that lost all steam.
4. Screenplay enters by not helping out with any of the major wagons and instead barreling after me (that part in itself could be town bad at replacing in so pass).
5. Screenplay doesn't reevaluate his reads upon any of the 3 flips.
6. Only after he catches flak for it does he do the "I wanna work with you Mathdino, please give me some content and your thought process" thing when my entire ISO is my thought process anyway (and I'm not interested in being a dancing monkey lol).

Honestly could be SK too. Just a scummy slot.

[Mathdino]

With Math saying he was holding intent for hammer ironically.

This is an objectively correct interpretation of my actions and I am glad that I am being recognised for my pure irony

I'm more interested in Sheep because he was off Creatures wagon kinda but held hammer waiting for a claim. He even mentioned he thought Red if they were scum would have waited for a claim which kinda was what sheep was doing end if d1.

Doesn't add up.

1. He was entirely on the Creature wagon. He moved off to sheep me when I started up the Impede wagon again. After that he wanted to wait for Creature's last will/defence/claim which I think is consistent with sheep's general thought process/meta.

2. Scum doesn't often call people scum for doing the exact things they're doing. Hypocrisy is not a scumtell.

Honestly the best evidence against sheep is that he took the bait and went after Impede when I and A50 made a shitty case on Imp. Is attributable to laziness. And like, I'm

somewhat

okay with pressuring him to do stuff for us, but I don't think votes are quite the way to go to do that. Just threaten him or push him around or something. (although, caveat, if sheep is your primary scumread and you are not voting, please seriously vote, people)

[Mathdino]

See that's how you do a catchup. Welcome to the game, Ghost.

@Ghost:

I'm concerned with your IIoA though. Please give reasons for each reads list as of the time you made them.
- With more explanation for the unpopular opinions. In particular, Impede being so high, momo being so low, Screenplay being so high.
- Your momo read is uninformed I think by the context of his conversation with Jay. Check my, momo's, or Impede's ISOs to find it and read it in context. I said something like "momo just rocketed to the top of my townlist". Let me know what you think.
- Why did Hawk jump down on your list?
- Do you have any thoughts on VCA and the different wagons yesterday? Primary ones were Jay, Red, AssembleScreenplay, and Creature.
- If you're into setup spec/logic/mafia theory, it'd be nice to have someone else to talk to on this. Especially regarding the list of roles that I'd like claims from.

I challenge you to push a Kop counterwagon/case since I'm clearly not the one to do it.

[Mathdino]

Okay 2 of my games just ended. Newbie game with Impede/Una and a Open game with A50 and fitz.

Newbie game stuff:

@Impede

: You can go ahead and say the stuff you wanted to about Una now. I'm not sure what your analysis here is cuz Una got lynched there by being tryhard.
Also from that game's dead thread:

Math is insane and I resonate heavily with his playstyle. I really want to see Scum!Dino now. If I was scum against Town!Dino I would NK him so fast.

Interesting.

Open game stuff:

Re: A50/me on D1:

The stuff that A50 and I were flirting at was specifically last game. He gained some understanding of my playstyle (I think) from that. That said, I was a cop with a N0 guilty so idk what he possibly could've gained. More likely is he gained an understanding of what it takes to make me townread him.

@fitz, @Hawk:

fitz just to back me up on this. Switch is a setup with 3 mafia, 1 SK, and a night 0. If mafia and SK shoot town every night, town literally can't afford a single mislynch (they mislynched for the first time in LyLo and lost to SK A50, smh). Here's the deadthread where you can see me complaining about the setup. You'll see that me complaining about the 3 mafia 1 SK setup coincided with me, here, assuming 3 mafia 1 SK, to the point where I for some reason thought 3 mafia were alive here. That mixup along with the ridiculously bad scenario that game was led to me thinking in terms of the worst case scenario here.

[Mathdino]

scum!dino is obviously the most original thought that stands out

essentially it's the "screen catches up like i do as town" part that makes me tr him

Weak. Where's your case? Where's your readslist? Where's your town contribution? Why aren't you ever concerned with convincing others that your take on the gamestate is the correct take?

Shitty playstyle

i havent actually looked into this game tbqh

So explain to me why this doesn't make you PL candidate #1 right now?

Shitty playstyle

im psure creature plays like this at as either alignment with these popins and popouts
i dont recall his popins being wolfy popins; im more in favor of red or assemble lynches

And this crap.

Even when you felt OK about lynching Creature (allegedly) your vote never went there. In fact the only time you used your vote in a meaningful way was on me and you were just mega-sheeping Dino. You said you would hammer if we got to deadline, but who knows if that was true. You did say you wouldn't hammer without a claim, but Creature was pretty damn obvious that he wasn't going to claim at all. Why didn't you hammer then?

You also post a fake-looking reaction anytime there's a vote around L-1. This has happened 3 or 4 times this game alone where someone fakehammers or revotes for no reason. Why do you react every time? Why is your first instinct to post a reaction rather than just taking 10 seconds to actually count the votes yourself? I can see it the first time... but reacting the same way the second AND third times as well? 723 and 824 for reference.

We gon' lynch this today folks.

VOTE: Sheep

Yeah I mean this part and that quote are pretty bad tbh
I'm not sure he'd just fake reactions as scum tho
and i'm certainly not gonna be the one to metadive his mountains of posts to check

Idk man if you're looking for an impassioned defence I'm not really the one. I don't super care for the guy. Just doesn't seem like a huge priority right now. See what you can do about your wagon. I don't really care if it exists; might start caring more if deadline draws close.

Protip: When you post a case on someone, direct it at other people, not at the guy you're casing, cuz I seriously just ignored your post cuz I thought you were trying to push him around or something, and only speaking to him.

[Mathdino]

@Math: Why bring up the Newbie game? And my dead thread post? I said everything I wanted to about Una from a meta perspective, and I’d still NK the f out of you. You have my permission to use this as a scumtell if for no other reason than I want to see you hilariously try to explain to everyone in a game that if you get NKed then people should look for Scum!Impede because threats. Lol

The Newbie game was something you were trying to talk about earlier, wasn't sure if you wanted to expand at all. I was gonna say that Una in that game is fundamentally pretty different as he was going all tryhard IC.

Your dead post seemed interesting. Lends credence to town-Impede theory but I wanted others' thoughts on it first.

I obviously don't do pre-death NKA because that's WIFOM city. Is why I don't post reads in twilight.

[Mathdino]

And if we are to believe there is no vig in the game as everyone has led Math to believe...then that means we have an SK and only ONE scum left

Imagine being this wrong
Go read the setup again Fitz

[Mathdino]

Everyone who voted momo lost so much of their credibility tbh

[Mathdino]

Imagine a world where people can work together and scumhunt together without literally being scum together
Imagine a world where trust overtakes paranoia
Fun times

[Mathdino]

Holy fuck i haven't even read this post in full but I'm ready for a fucking ride

[Mathdino]

Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%

2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.

Creature has been lynched.

Creature was a

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver.

TTTTT = Mafia Goon,

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

, Serial Killer

1T is possible. The fact that no one claimed the roles I listed is useless because this playerlist seems to hate claim ideas. 1T would involve Maf Goon, Maf Bus Driver, Maf JOAT, and SK.

I'm heavily leaning towards doing the minimalist claim idea so we can definitively prove how many scum there are. There are more than a few players assuming one way or the other that can definitely be read based on which setup is correct.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: momo

VOTE: momo

Yea, back to scum reading Momo the most.
And company on the wagon too?!?

VOTE: momo

Every single one of these votes needs to be explained in full. momo has done nothing in the past couple pages that looks scum motivated outside of general awkwardness. If you want to definitively prove he's the most mislynchable player in MS, go ahead. But your gut is not end-all-be-all.

I had a cute scenario in my head, where the scum team was Dino, A50, momo.
Now that I know it's not the case, I had to reevaluate my read on momo, since A50 was actually main suspect and the others were mainly drawn from associations.
I still think the interactions around A50 were scummy, but now it would implicate momo and Dino, since A50 flipped green.

I can bet there's 0 scum coming to quick hammer him.
Momo is by far the best lynch today, we leave an inactive slot for the vig.

Get your head out of your ass, Una. Do you literally have any townreads? It's like your whole game is generating paranoia around the most present (in mind) players.

Explain exactly what interactions were scummy. And no, 2 people putting each other at the top of their reads lists is not an inherently scummy interaction.

Also, there's no vig, so wtf with "inactive players can be left to the vig"??? Between SK and mafia, do you really think momo/I will live to endgame anyway?

[Mathdino]

In a side note.
Sheep is now on page 2 of their iso.
And that’s all of their votes.

Every other naked vote sheep's made has been in response to a legitimate case by another player.

Red was a top suspect early on.
Jay vote happened during Jay vs Impede.
Forgot where 2nd Red Vote was from.
Impede vote came after my minicase on Impede.
Unvote came after me being like NO WAIT GUYS THAT WAS WRONG.

I can see why momo would see a difference with this last vote, given that

no one has given full reasons for this shit

.

[Mathdino]

The fuck do you think coasting is?

His D2 play has consisted of:

1. Being the first one to genuinely come up with a Screenplay case
2. Attacking shit votes on me (and then pushing Screenplay with more reasons)
3. Expanding his cone of vision and giving other reads/options
4. Defending against shit accusations against himself.

[Mathdino]

Fuck it. I'm gonna get flak for this. I can't keep doing this.

Let it be known that I am declaring this day worthless if we can't even figure out how many scum there are left. So yes, I am deliberately rolefishing for SPECIFIC ROLES.

Everyone (including me) is making associatives based on some made up idea of what we're up against. fitz on the other hand is strongly assuming there's 1 mafia left, which is a major townslip if proven wrong. Then it looks like there's a 4-man block basing everything around momo/Dino.

@sheep:

Are you one of the following roles: {Tracker, Gunsmith, 1-shot Commuter}. Answer a strict 'yes' or 'no'. Do not specific claim.
I am not. I'm gonna end up asking everyone but if anyone else wants to butt in on this feel free.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: I worded that badly.

So yes, I am deliberately rolefishing for a YES or a NO to a SPECIFIC SET OF ROLES.

[Mathdino]

Really appreciate your buy-in despite earlier pushback.

If EVERYONE answers 'no' to that question (it would further help if we could assume no vengefuls but I'm not sure we can yet):

The only possible scenarios in which we have a 3-man scumteams are the following PR distributions:
IIHKRPT
IIHKPPT
IIHRPPT
IIHPPPT
IIKRPPT
IIKPPPT
IIRPPPT
IIPPPPT
IHKRPPT
IHKPPPT
IHRPPPT
IHPPPPT
IKRPPPT
IKPPPPT
IRPPPPT
IPPPPPT (lol if any kills happened at all in this setup)

I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that we have multiple protectives given that there were 2 kills on high-townread players last night. Strongman kill is possible but there was also the SK kill.

So in the situation that everyone answers no,

we probably have just 1 scum left.

[Mathdino]

And on a final note, if we assume no vengefuls on the basis that no one counterclaimed Jay (if people still argue with me on this I'm gonna call for vengeful claim):
IIHRPPT
IIHPPPT
IIRPPPT
IIPPPPT
IHRPPPT
IHPPPPT
IRPPPPT
IPPPPPT

All of which are highly unlikely and force the existence of many docs/JKs.

Edit: Sheep, are you one of the 3?

[Mathdino]

no stop that can be easily faked

nah i want other ppl to talk abt this first

If so, he's faking a complete total misunderstanding of the setup. He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible. It's obviously not.

There are certain mistakes people make that are almost impossible to fake. If I literally can't understand how someone could come to such a mistake (this happens a lot in math errors) it's almost certainly real.

I'm not suggesting that if we prove there's only 1 mafia left, everyone claiming 2-man scumteams is town. That can very obviously be faked given that we've been assuming 3-man scumteams since the beginning of D1.

[Mathdino]

I entirely checked the ISO. I came back and wrote that post informed by it (check the timestamps, that's the amount of time I spent checking). Do you want me to defend each number?

Don't assume I'm doing as little work as you are. If you want to rebut me or defend your point, YOU go quotewall the ISO.

[Mathdino]

shit i think we actually have 1 mafia left wow

[Mathdino]

Lol this is gonna be fun. Pardon my excitement, I was a competition kid

Probability of multiple killing roles (pre-Tracker-death) is equal to (1 - P(1K) - P(0K)).
P(1K) = 7*0.1*0.9^6 = 37.2%
P(0K) = 0.9^7 = 47.8%

P(>2K) = 1-0.372-0.478 = 0.15 = 15%.

Meh. Not actually super unlikely but still pretty damn unlikely and enough, IMO, to lynch Jay over it. If I were a Vengeful, I'd have instantly counterclaimed his ass.

Not really relevant now. If we need to we'll get Vengeful claims but I'm thinking we won't need to. You any of the 3 (Tracker, Gunsmith, 1-shot Commuter)? Remember to only answer Yes/No.

[Mathdino]

Glad you asked!

If we have 2 remaining maf, then we have 2, 3, or 4 PRs, distributed in a way that will likely break the game. Furthermore, fitz rockets to the top of my townlist (or at least not mafia list) due to seemingly very genuine mistakes in trying to "prove" there's only 1 mafia left. Then we can start hunting for associatives, because we're 1 or 2 mislynches from MyLo depending on night actions.

If we have 1 remaining maf, we can start taking a look at people talking to me about setup spec. Most people assumed 2 mafia IIRC and I'm guessing mafia played along, but it's still something to look into. Then we can remember to ourselves that there's only one partner for Creature, not 2. This changes VCA substantially.

[Mathdino]

Also, if there's 1 PR left, that PR suddenly becomes an innocent child (or at least the sole named townie) the moment they claim. Doctor functions as a bulletproof townie if mod allows self-healing.

[Mathdino]

So operating under the assumption that Creature has literally only 1 partner going forward, I think fitz's analysis holds a lot of weight. Bussing seems much more dangerous and we need to look off the wagon. In particular, Screenplay and Kop (Kop is my addition ofc). sheep was semi-on-the-wagon but stalled for a claim.

And that also dispels the bullshit associations people are making like OH SHIT WHAT IF MATH/MOMO ARE A SCUMBLOC. Which you might see is what prompted me to take this gamble in the first place.

[Mathdino]

What the hell Una?

You think that if there's one scum remaining it's seriously momo of all people?

What associations are we drawing from that?

Lemme guess.

"Dino was buddying up to A50 on D1 and momo on D2, how'd he know they're both town? Must be scum!"

I didn't realise momo was a serious fucking lynch option but I guess I have some cases to respond to. Una how the hell does bussing make sense with a 2 man scumteam?

[Mathdino]

I can bet there's 0 scum coming to quick hammer him.
Momo is by far the best lynch today, we leave an inactive slot for the vig.
Tacos/red or something.

I'd also like address my reads in full, but mobile posting Sucks, so I'll try later.

Why is Momo the best lynch today?

The best thing you can do to stop this bullshit momo lynch is answer the following:

Yes/no: Are you one of the following roles: {1-shot Commuter, Tracker, Gunsmith}

@Kop, @momo, @fitz:

If all 3 of you answer "No", then Creature most likely had one buddy all along.

The fact that fitz assumed 1 scum left already means he most likely will answer "no". The fact that momo assumes he's gonna get lynched also makes me think he's not claiming anything groundbreaking.

[Mathdino]

@Kop - Here's my case on momo.

momo - His early statement that he doesn't believe in town reads was ironic given that he handed a few of those out throughout D1. 683 and 717 are hedgy. Momo claims (683) that both Impede and Creature are scum, but says that Impede should be lynched first because of "more info" but doesn't explain what sort of information we could gain.

Momo says this again and again but never explains what sort of information we'd gain. At a later point when Impede's wagon is loosing traction, Momo undermines his statements on Scum!Impede saying that Impede is not the scummiest lynch candidate. Instead, favoring a Creature wagon saying that "he has more content than redflavor in the effort to make himself appear towny, but is scummy" (717). He undermines this again in 729 when he address that "While I think both - (Creature & Impede) - are scummy ... i think impede flip, no matter what it is, provides more information which we could use right now" with no mention of RedFlavor at all

1. Hypocrisy is not a scumtell, you should know this. Don't surface-level scumhunt.

2. His claim in 683 was a very common one made at the time. Kop was actually the primary one pushing that idea. Impede was a more active player providing more interactions/reads. His lynch would definitely have been high-info.

3. Everyone said it over and over. Don't expect handholding; it's possible you either read that out of context, or everyone has a unified sentiment of what high info and low info lynches are and already agreed. Creature did fuckall for all of D1. His associations are extremely weak.

4. So your case against momo is that he doesn't make sense? Because congrats, gottem I guess? How is not making sense a scumtell?

[Mathdino]

lol literally no one else has anything worth responding to

If we're not lynching Screenplay, we should be lynching sheep or Kop imo.

I don't think anyone else is really on the table.

Edit: momo played fine, you guys just scumread for weird-ass stuff.

[Mathdino]

Not making any sense is a towntell imo. That's why we started townreading him when he was attacking Jay. This is a psychological game more than it is a logic/debate game.

momo is considered one of the most mislynchable people on this site. I haven't done a proper metadive on him but I have no reason to believe otherwise. If you want me to go read some games, I can. But yeah I'd bet my secondborn on this one.

[Mathdino]

I'm on mobile but this rant I did on impede in a completed game might be appropriate

Went back to a scumlean D2 because of lurking

See this is why i have trouble seeing you as town. yes godel has been inactive but he had declared v/la. You tried to do this earlier with me when I posted that i was going to be busy irl and you tried to spin it like I was being quiet.

I just don't see why you would do that if you were town. It is a very scummy thing to do.


Hopefully we will get some content from godel today like he promised.

See I think we're gonna differ a lot on Mafia Theory when it comes to finding scum pre-flip. I'm less concerned about us in LyLo together if you're right about being pretty good in LyLo, as I think we'll have either a flip or enough info to gamesolve. But point is:

I get what you're saying about the weird trajectory, and I think it's important to be asking those questions. The conversation has definitely helped inform my reads.

But a trajectory that's all over the place isn't scummy. It's considered a scumtell because when it's agenda-driven, it's often done by scum to help back up strategy changes day to day. In this case though, it's just Impede's read on Godel jumping all over the place for no apparent reason.

It demonstrates laziness in maintaining consistency, and because I know that I've gotten mislynched for that kind of shit, I've trained myself not to do that as either alignment. But people in my experience are usually more cautious about that as scum than as town, because scum PMs make people self-conscious as shit.

The funny thing is it looks like he's still mostly unaware of why people are scumreading him. Not understanding his reasons doesn't mean it's scum-agenda-driven. I'm not even sure he completely understands his own reasons. Scum often have clear/simple trajectories because they have an agenda. Town? Confusion and crazy trajectories is a towntell.

[Mathdino]

Edit: momo played fine, you guys just scumread for weird-ass stuff.

he's like textbook scummy

No, you're not weaseling out of explaining this one.

Your vote was shit. Put the momo case in your own words.

[Mathdino]

sheep if playing badly and not being at all persuasive is a scumtell you're at the top of my scumlist

[Mathdino]

Momo please don't join the shit train

There's 1 scum left

[Mathdino]

I'll run some combinatorics on the chances but if Kopscum says no then we're pretty much certain

If anyone remains uncertain I'm gonna strong-arm vengeful claims from people and that should confirm it

Edit correct

[Mathdino]

Ebwop: Kop. Autocorrect

[Mathdino]

Impede we have 1 scum left

Talk to me about today's non-horrible lynch options and give sentences for pros and cons of each

[Mathdino]

I CAME IN LIKE A WREEEEEEECKING BALLLLLLL
I NEVER SEEN SO BAAAAAD A POOOOOST
ALL I WANTED WAS TO BREEEAAAAK YOUR WALLLLLLLS
ALL YOU EVER DID WAS
FAA-AAI-AIIIL ME
YEAH YOU
WRE-E-ECK ME

Anything important that everyone should know?

I’ll iso when needed.

Anyone found a way to break this setup?

No, just no..I have replaced into games frequently and I can say that when I get a town pm...if the game is withing 50 pages, I will ask for a summary but actually have the intent to read and scumhunt...something like this; hands down lazy scum.

im not seeing how he gets that screen has no intent to read and scumhunt from this post. this is also bullshit because he LITERALLY STARTS SCUMHUNTING RIGHT AFTER that post and momo wrote this case a fucking long while after

Bro this is exactly the kind of replace-in that people find scummy. It's just a weird tone AND the slot was scummy so there was a lot of confbias surrounding it.
Is this more to defend Screenplay or attack momo?

Making votes based on post 90 on post 900 is nonsense....especially when the person you are voting is part of the town leadership and leading a wagon on likely scum.

it's fine it's not like dino was a lynch candidate
momo's basically attacking screen for attacking someone momo's townreading
like it's not that scummy for him to not realize that screen doing this isnt scummy cause i can see this being vi

Barreling after someone that's not a lynch option is an easy thing for scum to do when people are coming down on your buddy. It absolves you of any real responsibility for counterwagons and makes you look original. Tunneling is hard to read and scum often capitalises on it.
Also I'm attacking people who are attacking my townreads so like
what's your point? Chainsaw defending is a buddytell. Do you think momo is WKing me?

VOTE: impede

I think as of now I would rather this slot be the lynch and I haven’t even seen creature yet.

Voting without reading... a solid scum reason to be able to protect your buddy as a replace in but not something town worth the space their post takes up would ever do.

like it's already pretty clear that screen had read quite a bit at that point but especially momo just because you play pussytown doesnt mean town will never vote a scumread before theyre fully caught up

Placing that vote left Screenplay in confbias mode that he still hasn't gotten out of I think. It seems like Screenplay set out his trajectory before he had all the evidence and then used the evidence to support his already-decided goals.

VOTE: Dino

Not helpful

Math,
Summarize Kop and Fitz for us.

Was hard scum reading dino....now want's dino's opinion to shape his reads instead of actually scum hunting...

yeah and this is obviously very bad because changing reads doesnt exist and a vote and saying smth isnt helpful always means a hard scum read
like this is a REALLY bad misrep

Screenplay made no indication that a read change happened. The fact that his read change coincided with town gradually giving him more shit for it is concerning.

Is your entire momo case just telling momo his Screenplay case is shit?

Mod Edit: fixed quotes.

[Mathdino]

Just roll with it.

Thoughts on sheep, Ghost, and Kop?

Also, just to confirm we have only 1 scum remaining, answer Yes/No to the following question: "Are you one of the roles {Tracker, 1-shot Commuter, Gunsmith}?"

[Mathdino]

no his entire push is just misreps

Do you believe only scum misreps? (I don't even see it as misrep honestly because I agree with the case but)

Do you believe scum intentionally lies about other players to get them lynched?

[Mathdino]

Question...if we are in the 1 mafia 1 SK remaining configuration...that means we probably have 1 town PR still out there. How does helping scum narrow down what the final town pr might be (or who it might be) help town?

Because if we have 1 mafia 1 SK, the PRs I listed

literally can't exist

.

Double tracker requires III.
Gunsmith requires RR.
1-shot commuter requires HH.

Once you and Kop confirm that you're neither of these roles, we'll have almost-confirmed 1 mafia left.

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: math

The gamestart chances for each possible 1T setup assuming Kop answers "no" and assuming no vig:
(Setups with K are multipled by 1/2 due to 50% chance of vengeful)

Two I's:
IIHKRPT = 21*120*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 5% * 10% * 50% = 0.00070875
IIHKPPT = 21*60*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00070875
IIHRPPT = 21*60*15%*15% * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00070875
IIHPPPT = 21*20*15%*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0004725
IIKRPPT = 21*60*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000354375
IIKPPPT = 21*20*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00023625
IIRPPPT = 21*20*15%*15% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00023625
IIPPPPT = 21*5*15%*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000118125
Sums to 0.002835.

One I:
IHKRPPT = 7*360*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0004725
IHKPPPT = 7*120*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000315
IHRPPPT = 7*120*15% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000315
IHPPPPT = 7*30*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0001575
IKRPPPT = 7*120*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0001575
IKPPPPT = 7*30*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00007875
IRPPPPT = 7*30*15% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00007875
IPPPPPT = 7*6*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00007875
Sums to 0.00165375.

All sums to 0.00448875 or 0.449%.

Spoiler: fuck me, more math

Gamestart chances for each possible 5T setup and assuming no vig:
IITTTTT = 21 * 15% * 15% * 50%^5 = 0.014765625
IPTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 10% * 50%^5 = 0.196875
IHTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 10% * 50%^5 = 0.196875
IKTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 10% * 50%^5 = 0.196875
IRTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 5% * 50%^5 = 0.00984375
Sums to 0.083671875 or 8.37%.

0.449% chance of valid 1T setups, and 8.37% chance of valid 5T setups. Purging invalid setups, means

P(1T) = 0.449%/(0.449%+8.37%) = 0.0509 = 5.1%.
P(5T) = 8.37%/(8.37%+0.449%) = 0.9591 = 95.9%.

tl;dr: We have a 96% chance of 1 mafia 1 SK remaining.

Don't even need the vengeful claims.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: I made an error in my notes but not in my calculations. Instances of "0.196875" should read "0.0196875". The math checks out the same.

[Mathdino]

ghostiiiiie have you reevaluated yet

I think we have about half the playerlist on approximately the same page {Math, Impede, fitz, momo, Hawk}. We're gonna have trouble getting a lynch if that remains half.

Specifically I'm interested in:
- reevaluation of momo scumread
- reevaluation given that we have 1 mafia left
- thoughts on sheep's behaviour lately
- we could just lynch Kop though right

Edit: momo, don't go tunnel mode. You know that post is NAI.

[Mathdino]

Counterpoint on Screenplay: Wisdom is a known meta-changer and plays all sorts of playstyles. Last time he was scum I nailed him on associatives, not on playstyle.

Page: The page is just people who have 2 or 3 suspects in the list {Kop, Screenplay, sheep}. This makes it easier to get a lynch down the line. I don't think anyone is SK hunting yet except Una.

Impede push: Good call. I think sheep might be your best starting point.

sheep: No associations. It's possible he knows this is a mislynch and is staying off it on purpose.

Kopcase: Good luck, do better than I did. I'll probably sheep it if it's half-decent. His lack of presence is getting ridiculous.

Can I interest you in laying a vote down somewhere?

Edit: Dude, chainsaw defence is literally the alternative to hard-defence. Instead of saying "no your target is town" you're saying "fuck you you're scum". It's textbook chainsaw.

[Mathdino]

I also think una could be the last scum.

Someone please go through his iso and see if something feels off.
I did and my gut is telling me that’s where to look.

weird, this is actually #goodposting

UNVOTE:
VOTE: sheep
next in line

[Mathdino]

ugh fine i'll do a una-(idk yet)-case

Honestly I'm reading Una harder as SK than as mafia. Was thinking of saving him for now. I assume you want me to pair him with Creature?

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: A Trip Through Una/Creature ISO

VOTE: Jaydragon

Can't wait for a wagon on them

VOTE: JayDragon - blatantly opportunistic.

Opportunistic scum over here.

VOTE: Jaydragon

So you are calling me scum then??
Here, take this!

VOTE: JayDragon

26 is a scumclaim.

VOTE: JayDragon

What a strange sequence. A common pattern we see between these 2 is friendly interaction but never really reading each other.

..but honestly though Elsa, you should learn how to scumhunt and forget this "I'm here to just survive"-mentality.

If you trust yourself to not be a mislynch bait and be considered a voice of the reason, then you would have a survivor mentality.

The key word in my post was "just". If you only join a game to survive, you ruin it for your teammates most of the time.

Another example of that.

I still need the time to nitpick-read, I can't fully participate until then.

Dino and Elsa are polar opposites to me playstyle-wise.
I like Dinos thought process, and I dislike Elsas approach to the game. Totally NAI, I think, but I am honestly willing to just policy lynch her for it.

Nevertheless, I need the time to read and will post on computer next time to push for discussion outside of her.
I think its OK to do policy lynch D1, but we need to not make it the only discussion theme for the day..

This is pretty LAMISTy. Like obviously policy lynch isn't gonna be the only discussion theme. It doesn't need to be said.

So, both momo and Mathdino are correctly TRing me but for the wrong reasons.

This feels out of place.
So much meta and prior interactions have been dragged in these reads and I feel like it devalues most of them.
Mathdino, for now, feels like the towniest of the bunch - momo and A50 are both feeling more sketchy than not.

#badposting

I really like the hypo-claimage -

If I were to be the Hider, I would hide behind Mathdino

.
I was just recently in a game where there was a role that definitely benefited from crumbing their N1 target.

Hiding behind me prevents other hiders from hiding behind me and confirming me. Also shows strangely little concern for dying since I'm an obvious NK target. Could be one of the killers.

Both Elsa and Red are on the table as lynch-candidates, but I have reason to believe I already found scum, and his buddies conveniently "missed" the tells.
Turning towards the easy target (Elsa) right now makes me think there's already scum in the wagon..

Reads like someone with knowledge.

so he's going to be useless both by day and by night, regardless of his alignment.

I have like a lot of games I was one of the most useful town members.

I'm just not very inspired rn and you can see this is sitewide.

I hope you become more active soon!
I have no trouble believing in your skills, and I've been very distracted myself recently, so I can sympathize..

Buddy-buddy. I would not at all expect this interaction to come from scum-scum honestly. Scum just wouldn't say anything here.

You're not going to gain anything by trying to get someone to blindly and independently verify what you've found in this game. Better to make your case and see how it's received.

So what you're saying is that no one should read or re-read the game, and just hop on an easy wagon?

Because what my post was SUPPOSED to imply, was that everyone should look beyond Red and Jay FOR NOW, and try to actually scumhunt.
I have also made my initial case for why I voted for A50, and would like it if you actually reviewed it.
A50 is scum, and his buddies will try to discredit me during the following 8~hours before I get back on a computer..

Badddd. But unconsciously assumes 2 buddies. That's important.

like lynches in red/jay

Strange, both feel like mislynches.

This is super important. Heavily implies Ghost is town tbh.

Now go read that "mysterious" post I made earlier - I wanted someone else to arrive to this conclusion by themselves and organically.
I think there has been a creeping suspicion on an association between Dino and A50.
That is EXACTLY why I want A50 lynched now that I already scumread him - it might help me sort Dino more firmly.

Impede and havingfitz are on my townleans now.

I would argue me, A50, Impede, and fitz are all cut from similar cloth. Logical thought process/presentation.
Funny that his scumreads among those types are the people who are obstacles to his ideas.

The RedFlavor wagon seems to have lost all momentum, even in my mind. Seems like there's always a better fad.

What do you make out of RedFlavor wagon losing steam?

The obvious answer to this is "Well, Red is probably scum". Also clears Red/Ghost.

My votes on that wagon were mostly goofing around, but also because I wanted to get the game rolling - anything for content, amirite?

LAMIST as shit. Tryhardy.

I'm trying to dig myself out of my tunnel and focus my next reread on RedFlavor, Kop, Hawk, havingfitz.
I feel like Mathdino/A50/momo form the bulk of the actual conversation, and I'm constantly paranoid of them creating the whole picture for everyone else to see (NAI, but destroys original ideas and organic reads).
I still haven't been able to keep up posting-wise, but I have been reading more than three times a day.
Will be able to devote a lengthy time for only posting before D1 deadline though, probably Tuesday.

Reconsideration of reads is good. Paranoia seems legitimate.

I still think lynching in a slot like Creature D1 is fine, but I think people are overestimating the association reads we get from such a flip.

This doesn't come from someone who already knows Creature is scum.

RedFlavor can be lynched
sheepsaysmeep town
Srceenplay town I guess
Kop null
UnaBombaH seemed town
Impede I haven't decided yet

Relevant reads. Red is town. This implicates Kop.

Conclusions:
- RedFlavor/Ghost is absolutely NOT Creature's partner. I stand deeply corrected. Creature wanted the Red wagon to take off again.
- A few Una/Creature interactions make no sense.
- Una has a lot of moments where it looks like he genuinely wants to solve the game.
- On the other hand, Una has a lot of moments that seem like he's posturing and wants to be townread.
- Una also actively tries to lynch/discredit all of the town leader types, while trying to defend the less present.
- Una does not himself town-lead. He's subtle and lets town do its own thing.

Implication: UnaBombaH is SK.

[Mathdino]

There's a lot that makes sense with them being scum together and a lot that doesn't. He's one of the early players who unconsciously called 3 scum in non obvious ways.

He's SK or town. First on my shitlist after we get mafia. But he's nowhere near ballsy enough as scum to talk to his buddy like here.

Gimme more suspects?

[Mathdino]

Jay pulled a similar playstyle to this in Mini Normal 1969, which just finished, and got endgamed as a VT.
Other people I've played with are Havingfitz, Creature, Almost50, and UnaBombaH. The only one of them I trust myself to be able to easily read is Creature, whom I'm townreading.

fuck, guys, idk how we missed this but this is town/SK

momo get out of tunnel vision mode, trust me on this

i'll vote kop or sheep with you tbh

[Mathdino]

@Kop:

Yes/No: Are you one of the following roles: {1-shot commuter, Tracker, Gunsmith}

And dammit, not everything can be TvT. There's something we're missing.

Assemble/Screenplay interactions around Creature make no sense. That guy's town, I was in OMGUS mode.

Now suddenly Kop's town and sheep/momo are TvTing?

Who are we lynching?

If half the town believes Una is SK and half believes Una's mafia, that might be a good compromise tbh.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: UnaBombaH

Putting myself out there here as a compromise to the "Una is Creature's partner" crowd. I'd like to see if a lynch here is possible.

Would prefer lynching Kop/sheep but I think we're waiting on Ghost for the Kopcase.

[Mathdino]

Cool.

If you're town, start playing better.

I'm not responding to a post that reads as a middle schooler's impression of the Jared Leto Joker.

Edit: Do you actually want sheep lynched or not?

[Mathdino]

Dude wagons in this game basically consist of 2 or 3 votes.

You're fine.

@Hawk

: You're SK hunting on playstyle, not motivation. Your argument is that momo-SK could hide behind his playstyle (ok great so he COULD be SK) and I assume you have the same problem with Impede that everyone does (when I say that dude is town, I mean lock, he's TOWN, not SK).

I don't remember being the one that suggested SK off Creature's wagon. I don't remember SK hunting at all. I'm doing this wagon as a compromise.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: Ignore question to Kop, I completely missed a whole page. Brb reading

Edit: i have not read the above, i need to go read page 59

[Mathdino]

I think Kop just townslipped...scum would always be careful with their vote and who they are voting for...town on the other hand, I can see them messing up like this and then fixing it in the next post

Man, as the king of townslips, that was not a townslip, trust me.

Considering Kop's most recent post - 1460 - was made with the intention to

prevent

a potential hammer... The idea that Kop is scum has kinda fell flat in my mind. Still working on compiling that timeline while multitasking.

UNVOTE: Kop

Surface level. Scum does that all the time to posture. Him doing that is pro-town but null.

[Mathdino]

@Hawk

: Right so I completely missed the sheep wagon blowing up, sorry. I thought it was gaining 0 traction.

Yeah if you want my vote back on sheep I'll do it, but I see vote switching as suboptimal, so I'm otherwise parking here for a bit.

[Mathdino]

@Ghost: Damn, I was gonna go find that but lost interest around page 4. Can you scan for anyone assuming 2 mafia, and for anyone who seems to believably subconsciously think there's 3 mafia?

@momo: Or I could just state intent to vote sheep and stay here.

Recent revelations unfortunately leave fitz out of the townbloc.

[Mathdino]

I'm pretty sure no one assumed the SK was around on D1.

Tell you what: You look at Assemble/Screenplay, Hawk, Mathdino, fitz, Kop
I'll look at RedFlavor, momo, sheep, Una, and Impede.

[Mathdino]

Jay claiming survivor wincon is naturally going to make everyone think SK.

I thought SK too but I figured it would be too obvious.

I don't think those quotes are alignment indicative, Ghost.

[Mathdino]

I'm already doing that with the 5 players I mentioned.

Make less work for yourself. Take half the work.

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: RedFlavor

When jay voted creature he suddenly became too active looky but not really active, he just said reasons to be inactive

VOTE: creature

Almost50, momo and creature are scumteam

If jay was wolf he probably would not say something about survivor challange so please do not vote him

Early scumteam call, Jay defence, goes after Creature instead of the townies.

Conclusion: Redslot probably town yeah.

Spoiler: momo

Impede is building a case

Who here thinks red vs jay is bussing

Like both of them know they are caught scum so they bus so that whoever is lynched first has been effectively distanced from the other one

Bussing would be pretty weird with 2 mafia.

I have narrowed likely scum to 4 candidates....there are obviously three scum

SMOKING GUN RIGHT HERE. "obviously" three scum.

@momo

: If you're reading this, why did you say this?

So yeah, my current scum team is assemble, creature, and red

Calls the scumteam midday.

we have 3 mislynches available to us assuming scum kills every night and no SK

We have 3 mislynches assuming no SK.

Mention of SK.

Conclusion: I'm obviously predisposed to see momo as town here but yeah I'm fucking positive he's not groupscum at least. There were a few hints of SK in his ISO but it's not worth it today.

Spoiler: sheepsaysmeep

can we not have everyone pushing their own scumteam d1

Frustration at calling scumteams. Looks bad.

jay could be an sk and "confirm" him/herself

I thought mafia had no daytalk.

This is really easy to verify. Why would he say “I thought”? Again, either lazy town or careful scum.

im not seeing thi

Throwing suspicion on Jay for being SK, arguing with Impede that Creature didn't actually townslip. Clear mafia motivation.

*fitz's "townslip" can be faked

fitz's "townslip" was based on the number of mafia. sheep is thinking like scum here.

Conclusion: sheep's ISO doesn't look good at all. I'd never actually gone over it, but he wasn't as down with Creature-lynch as I thought. MAJOR suspect.

Spoiler: UnaBombaH

1 in 3 rule. Calling our Red, Creature & Una for the Scum team.

This is such a BS line-up.
While I can't slot Red OR Creature well enough yet, I'd be willing to say there's 0 scum in this list!

Since we are throwing shit around, I almost feel like calling the scumteam here and now, but I want to see more interactions first.

Talking about the scumteam. I can see why some people see this as consistent with Creature scumpartner. I find it more consistent with SK trying to figure things out (badly).

I believe A50 will not be the lynch today, but I'm certainly going to keep investigating the game with the theory of A50+momo.
[snip]
The third scum is either SK or can be found in the inactives (in which case we will likely find them with the VCAs later)

Whoa okay I didn't notice this. This outright assumes 2 scum and possible 1 SK.

I do still stand by what I said about interactions around A50. Also, A50 as a NK makes sense only if there were blatant crumbs that I missed, OR someone gained distance from it.
No doubt he is a good player, but there would've been better targets for scum to take.
My working theory for today is that SK killed A50, and Mafia wasted the "vig".

Convinced about the popular NK theory here. Calls it a working theory when it's kind of obvious.

After reflecting for a moment, I think we go to VOTE: Mathdino.

A50's ISO doesn't seem to have anything resembling a crumb towards him being a Tracker, however..there is the off chance scum thought he really was the hider.
A50 hypoclaimed to hide behind Creature who was the lynch, and I don't think he ever claimed a 2nd target(?).

So scum could kill him off and there would be no risk for them being implicated.
Based off of this (and the kind of thinking I feel like the kill-decision took,) I'd say Mathdino killed A50.
The off-chance is that someone tried to frame him (read his previous post), but him saying that I'm the primary suspect for it is bullshit. (the only scenario where I killed A50 is the one where I'm a vig, never as scum)
Math was also "soft-defending" A50 D1, and his playstyle fits that of a buddying SK very well.

I'm really confused about this post and I want thoughts on it.
Una completely misunderstands the hider mechanic. He seems to think that SK-Math shot A50 because A50 was the hider and there would be no risk.
But the whole point of hider is that they hide behind a townie so they don't get killed.
If this point was on Unascum's mind at all, he's either faking this mistake or was being incredibly dumb about how hider works last night.

Conclusion: This post is wacky. I can't in good conscience vote here. I don't think SK would be this careless.
VOTE: sheep

Spoiler: Impede

Wait, why can't we be in KKK or KKKK? Then we'd have 2 vig and there would be no reason for a CC or for the Vig to shoot Jay for fakeclaiming. What am I missing?

Being in KKK or KKKK would require 3 scum. Weird that he thought this.

I really don't want to do this, but I really want an answer on this...

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

Why the fuck does he want an answer for this question if he's mafia and already knows?

SK only occurs on odd playercount.

How do you know we have an SK?

How the hell do we know there's an SK!??!?!?!?!?! No one has answered this for me. FFS

lol at this. Needless to say it's either genuine or posturing.

inb4 Sheep/Math scumteam

NAI joke I think.

Implication: UnaBombaH is SK.

I really don't think so. I think Una is potential maf, but not SK. Regardless, you've convinced me to consider Una as possible scum. I have some ISOs to do to solidify this. Will try to make time today.

This is uncomfortable. Why is he so sure Una isn't SK? And if the obvious answer is Impede-SK, why would he not want to deflect suspicion on Una?

Conclusion: Impede isn't mafia, but there's a chance he's SK. Not sure yet.

[Mathdino]

hey momo gimme thoughts on fitz as a creature partner

[Mathdino]

Mafia likelihood reads list:

momo
Impede
RedFlavor
Screenplay
Una

Hawk

Kop

fitz
sheep

SK likelihood reads list:
[snip]
I was gonna write this and then I realised SK hunting is balls anyway.
I have no fucking clue.

[Mathdino]

Is math alone in thinking una is sk?

Why are you voting him then?

My interpretation is because you think he killed A50.

Well in all likelihood, SK killed A50.

[Mathdino]

Impede, you didn't answer my question earlier (when you were online too, lol)

Talk to me about our different lynch options for today.

[Mathdino]

SK would be an absolute idiot to think that killing off the rest of the mafia at night is in any way a good call.

Glad to see Impede's not SK though.

Impede, talk to me about your reads on Screenplay and Una independently of SK hunting (so in terms of mafia). You claimed that Una is likely mafia and then flipped to townreading him.

[Mathdino]

SK most likely thought A50 is town.

You're gonna hate me for saying this, but A50 would easily be my first shot if I were SK. Would save from the awkward question on D2 of wtf to do with him. Strong player too.

[Mathdino]

Recent revelations unfortunately leave fitz out of the townbloc.

Can you elaborate on this comment?

The supposed townslip was predicated on me proving (by someone answering "yes" to my question) that there were 2 scum remaining.

You assumed throughout the day that there was 1 scum remaining. Your logic on that didn't really make sense so it looked pretty unfakeable. Figured you were conftown if 2 scum left.

Now that you were literally the only person strongly assuming 1 scum remaining, it makes sense that you would think that's somehow the only possibility.

I'm not saying you scumslipped, but you unfortunately didn't townslip. I don't see any reason to rule you out from being Creature's partner.

[Mathdino]

It would help if you analysed or gave some kind of conclusion for each player you quote listed.

So far what I'm getting is that Screen and Hawk are almost certainly not mafia.

Not maf bloc: {momo, Impede, Ghost, Hawk, Screen}
Lynchpool: {sheep, Kop, fitz}
Kinda both: {Una}

If we get this wrong, we're 7v1v1 tonight. Both shoot town creates 5v1v1. Being wrong again creates an awkward 4v1v1 where we lose if both shoot town. Awkwardly, we might only have one mislynch left.

But like. It's probably sheep or Kop.

[Mathdino]

Kop, fitz, Impede and I are all confirmed Not Hider (assuming fitz as hider would've followed my request) because we hypothetically hid behind people who died. Thus we're exempt from hider hypoclaiming.

We should get a few hypo hider claims before day end.

I hate to out this but it's pretty low chance we even have a hider anyway. Plus, scum is gonna do this analysis on their own.

Hider targets yesterday (not counting those who hid behind dead people):
momo @ Screenplay
RedFlavor @ sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep @ Impede
Screenplay @ UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH @ Mathdino
Hawk @ Kop
havingfitz @ ----------

Given that momo is tunneling Screenplay, momo's not hider.
Screenplay voting Una means Screenplay's not hider.
Una tunneling me means Una's not hider.
I didn't realise this at the time but me getting Hawk to vote Kop means Hawk's not hider.

So that really just means we need hypo hider claims from:

Ghost

sheep

fitz

, only if he wouldn't have hid behind Jay as I asked (and if he didn't, he should claim his D1 hypo target).

[Mathdino]

I would ask the hiders to hide behind people they think are scum this time.

If you hide behind someone to confirm them as town, scum might shoot them anyway. You don't want to die that way.

It's SIGNIFICANTLY more useful for town for you to hide behind scum and die. We then have one confirmed town and one confirmed scum.

sheep if you wanna change your choice feel free.

Edit: Nice pick.

[Mathdino]

Thanks for saving your slot. Cheers. Hope you come back to the site.

[Mathdino]

I just finished a game with RedFlavor. He didn't replace out of that one.

Hate to use alignment indicative replacements as a strategy, but I think Ghost's slot has become my strongest townread.

[Mathdino]

Yo so I don't think there's a doctor because ~reasons~ (unrelated to my role; if I am a PR, there's a 5% chance there are other PRs, and I still don't think there's a doc). PR has a high chance of dying tonight so here's a quick guide:

PR possibilities:

Hider: We're taking care of that.
1-shot Tracker: I hope you breadcrumbed well, because whomever you tracked last night is obviously clear.
Jailkeeper: Same goes to you. Breadcrumbs are king. Breadcrumbing future targets is also good.
Vengeful: Basically a named townie, this would suck.
Rolecop: Is basically our test for serial killer cuz mafia only has a goon left. Hopefully said something.

VTs out there

: If you wanna help the friendly PR, it wouldn't hurt to start breadcrumbing random players as if you checked them or will check them. This muddles scum's ability to find the real PR. Real PR should definitely be breadcrumbing target somehow in a way that becomes clear upon ISO.

Anyway, I think I'm at a point where I'd feel more comfortable lynching Kop than sheep.

For those of you interested in analysing sheep:

Here's a massive metadive someone did in a completed game just now. Outlines different things about town!sheep and scum!sheep. I can't really be arsed to go through his ISO and do a case but I encourage you guys to and see if you find anything.

[Mathdino]

If una has a high chance of being either one or the other, why do you keep voting somewhere else?
Let’s sort it right now and we know who we are looking for after that flip.
Right now I feel like una is mafia and math is sk. Math knows this and is using una is sk to distance himself from sk. He is trying to vote elsewhere to keep a scum role alive one more night.
Thoughts?

Welcome back to paranoia city. I got cold feet on the Una thing a few pages ago. You can see this both times I was asked to go through Una's ISO. There are a few things that don't make sense with him as SK.

But look, if we get mafia today, as I'm obviously trying to, and I'm somehow still not dead, you can take a second look at me.

Your theory requires me to actually believe Una is mafia (and I've presented several pieces of evidence to the contrary) and then whirlwind into bullshitting a vote on someone else (do you really see evidence of that in my analysis?).

Did everyone claim not the XX roles so we're almost certainly 5T?? If they did I would like to address Fitz concern that IF town still has Vig that they should claim... because in the event that we do have Vig and not SK and we don't have II, RR, or HH, because people haven't claimed Gunsmith, 1-shot Tracker, 1 shot Commuter then we would firmly be in a good spot that P or PP could be possible and doc would have claimed Vigis back and JOAT would have to Wifom who's Doc.

lol ok i'll just be the setup guy then
Town does NOT have a vig, if anyone claims vig I'm honestly just gonna assume they're SK.
The chance that we have 2 docs is around 2.5%. Don't bet on it. We probably have one power role alive and I'm fairly sure it's not doc.

[Mathdino]

Does fitz know that I think incorrect/bad math and setup spec is a towntell for me?

@fitz:

Your math is wrong in more than a few ways, but I don't really care enough to refute it unless you really want me to. Basically I already went over that a while ago.
But none of that matters now because we've pretty much narrowed down the setup.

[Mathdino]

A few of these questions could've been answered by paying more attention tbh. But more content, more questions I guess.

@Math....why is Una a town read for you in this reads list? (Hawk asks same question in 1243).

Holdover of townread from D1, and I also answered this when Screen asked me to ISO Una/Creature together.

@Math....when you say "He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible." who are you referring to? If me...I do not think this comment is accurate.

And I think it's accurate. It's hard for me to prove you wrong because we're probably actually in 5T, but you were wrong there.

@Math....where am I "trying to 'prove' there's only 1 mafia left?" If we are assuming there is no vig based on the claims you requested of everyone...the only option that exists in the game is TTTTT, which includes an SK. I guess there is a very slim chance of 1T, which would be bad, but I'm discounting it because 1) odds are so low and 2) because that would mean a shit load of town prs are still in the game and I'm sure someone would have claimed...or provided a result...or something to indicate there was more than 1 town pr remaining in the game.

Believe it or not, after the Tracker flip, 1T and 5T were of exactly equal probability. This is because the Tracker flip in a sense removes a letter from the conversation, leaving 6 unknown letters. 1T and 5T are symmetrical. It was 50/50 before we realised almost no one was a PR.

@Math....how are you coming to the conclusion that Assembler's post 93 is from town or SK? Because mafia!Assembler would not so obviously town read a partner?
....If the answer is yes...I disagree. And on that possibility...Creature did seem hands off the Assembler role fwiw (Ex. post 455 where Creature questions Math's vote on Assembler and post 952 where he rates Srceen "town I guess.").

Not only obviously townreading him but singling him out and claiming to be able to read him and being completely wrong. It's not like it's a secret, being able to read Creature. He put himself out there in a way I don't think scum would want to be accountable for.

I like Impede's post 1536. How does that make him not an option as sk Math? I also like Impede's post 1540 pointing out Una Creature comments.

Because he has no idea what the fuck SK would do and this indicates that he hasn't put himself in the mind of an SK.

@Math....I did not assume throughout the day (today) that there was 1 scum remaining. Up to the point we heard back from all the vig claims (which I still dislike) I was open to there being one or two mafia still in the game. I've given my reasons for thinking 0 and 1 T were never really strong options. TT and TTTTT however were both equal possibilities for me most of today (prior to accepting the vig claims). I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.

OK.

@Math....What do you mean if only I wouldn't have hid behind jay? My D1 hypo target was RedFlavor.[/quote]
Jay had RedFlavor in his shooting pool. We emergency reorganised our hider targets at the end of the day.
From this I'm reading that you haven't really kept up tbh.

Not super impressed with fitz's catchup (also given that half is fallacious math) but dude's probably town.
Literally no one has given me a good case on Una-mafia. I did a bit of that meta literature and I do think sheep is playing his scumgame. Vote stands here.

[Mathdino]

impede no matter what we not only have an SK (doesn't change our setup theory) but we also have a lying vig who has repeatedly throughout the day claimed not vig

this isn't worth speculating on, we can assume people in this game aren't idiots

[Mathdino]

word soup, what the fuck did i think i was writing

EBWOP: Either way, we have an SK, so that doesn't change our setup spec, and your hypothetical would require a lying vig who has repeatedly claimed not vig throughout the day.

[Mathdino]

Convinced about the popular NK theory here. Calls it a working theory when it's kind of obvious.

I was the first one to call it like that.

YOUR VERY OWN POST TO FOLLOW MINE UP INCLUDED THIS:

Upon reflection (and I'm just assuming vig doesn't exist now because they didn't cc Jay), the most likely scenario is that mafia killed Jay and SK killed A50. Reason being that SK has a 1-shot BP and vig hanging around is much more likely to hurt mafia. Mafia on the other hand is actively afraid of vig. Especially after we have him leashed.

Calling it a "popular nightkill theory", when only few people had theorized and you posted that AFTER me, is somewhat stupid.

You're overreacting. I was dryly commenting on posts I found interesting. It wasn't a case, it was a selective post-by-post to see what conclusion I could draw.

Work with me, Una. You're not lynching me today, and momo is certainly not Creature's partner. Excessive SK-hunting is more likely to hurt the town by witch hunting the least scummy townies. We'll get to that.

Between the viable lynch candidates, who is Creature's partner?

Edit: lol this is getting pretty funny

[Mathdino]

SK most likely thought A50 is town.

You're gonna hate me for saying this, but A50 would easily be my first shot if I were SK. Would save from the awkward question on D2 of wtf to do with him. Strong player too.

ARGH the WIFOM....!

How is this WIFOM? I'm literally using this to support an argument I was in the middle of. I acknowledge that it's a weird thing to say, but I was arguing with people on why the SK shot A50 and I'm saying it makes sense for EVERYONE, INCLUDING ME to shoot A50 and this NKA is probably not gonna get anywhere.

[Mathdino]

The fuck is WIFOMy about it? I'm literally telling you, if I were the SK, I would have shot the guy SK shot last night. WIFOM would be like "If I were SK, I'd have shot sheepsaysmeep" or something to try to 'prove' I'm not SK.

Like I said, talk to me about our lynch options.

[Mathdino]

I know you put a lot of effort towards your setup-spec Mathdino, but can you make a short, simple post on HOW SURELY we are against 1+1 at this point?
It's very important to me, as I read interactions better than anything else.

I calculated all the possible setups that involve 2+1 and found they were so incredibly unlikely compared to the setups with 1+1 that the chances were around 1:20.

It's important to me too. That's why I did the not-really-sorta-massclaim.

There is 1 mafia remaining. I'd stake a lot on this one.

[Mathdino]

Also, Una, I just wanna point out:

On D1, you claimed that my interactions with A50 made me scummy, and you wanted to flip A50 in order to flip me.

After A50 flipped, you decided that my interactions were STILL scummy, and you figured I must be scum with momo.

THEN after I near-DEFINITIVELY PROVED that there's 1 mafia remaining, you're like WHELP, I GUESS HE MUST BE SK!

Throughout ALLLLLL of this you've repeatedly stated that my entire game has been townish as fuck and that my presence has improved town cohesion. Now I can't expect you to just believe me when I tell you "I'm town" but I absolutely do expect agreement that my behaviour has been townish and that I've improved town cohesion by hard-defending multiple townreads when I didn't have to. Including you.

You've not once written up a case on me because when you see me, you see a townie that you desperately don't want to be scum. So I'm a liability because you think I'm gonna win if I don't get lynched this fucking second.

You had the same view on A50. It was stupid then and it's stupid now. Your read on me is solely based on paranoia. The fact that you always boomerang right back to it after every assumption your read is built on is proven wrong, shows that.

If you really give that much of a shit about this, write up a case on me so people can take a look at it after you
A. get NK'd
B. get lynched for being this fucking tunnelly.

I don't actually even think you're scum anymore but the hilarious fucking thing is now people are using "Well, Math is defending Una for some weird reason" as a roundabout way to suggest I'm SK, who thinks you're mafia, who wants to keep you around.

You're being ridiculous, Screen's being ridiculous, maybe I'm being ridiculous, but if I'm significantly off in my view of the day, I need more voices telling me so, instead of shouting about how I could be scum in some wackoworld.

Work. With. Me.

[Mathdino]

@Una: You're so fixated on possible scenarios over probable scenarios that you're not even fact checking them.

1. Bus driver happens BEFORE tracking. Plus, even if tracker could detect bus driver targets, the tracker would find 2 targets and immediately be like "no fuck you you're obviously bus driver".

2. To think that Creature-scum is thinking THAT hard about who he chooses to "hide" behind is ludicrous. He's not careful as scum.

3. Distancing that makes no sense. Kicking Hawk out of the townbloc holds no utility. Had he used that post to instead say "I agree with you on Hawk" you'd have labelled that weird too. Don't make up reasons.

4. We went over this. RedFlavor makes 0 fucking sense as Creature's partner, for multiple reasons. I'm getting the impression you're just not reading my posts anymore because you think I'm scum.

Please take more time to think through your talking points.

[Mathdino]

Anyway. Are we lynching Sheep, I still thought this was the best lynch considering what we know about the setup or are assuming about it anyway.

Do you wanna go over the sheep metadive from the other game and compare it to sheep this game?

[Mathdino]

Don't ask me to explain how I play. I either get results, or I don't, but trying to explain why I've done this would take everything away from my actions.
I think we have gotten a lot out of it, like it or not.

I don't think you've had a single correct, hit-the-nail-on-the-head, justified read since the start of the game.

All it's done is generate chaos and leave your voice out of the lynch discussion, making it harder for us to make decisions.

There's a helpful way to suspect me and there's an unhelpful way. Surprise surprise, the helpful way is to reasonably state your case, ask me legitimate questions (showing you actually read), and then give your reasons and thought process.

As it turns out, the unhelpful way is to be super fucking cryptic all the time and interject conversations with WELL I FEEL LIKE MATH MIGHT STILL BE SCUM. Yeah, and Bernie Sanders can still win, guys.

Whatever playstyle you're adhering to right now is turning the town against you.

[Mathdino]

[line][/line]

Okay so now that Una is off and I won't be competing with you two cause I'm at work I can talk the Sheep dive if you want. Link me the games I don't know where they are if they got posted prior.

This guy did all the work for us. I would never ask someone to go through pages of an ISO full of shitposting.

He backed up his statements with post links. All we need to do is compare the behaviour that guy outlined to sheep's ISO this game.

Note that he did the metadive in good faith, as he was town, and did it without the express purpose of coming up with a particular result, BUT came to the wrong result because sheep's play was different that game. The setup was whack so we all played different.

[Mathdino]

Did math say L-1? I forgot.

I did not, but I'm also not paying tons of attention to the votes (enough to make sure I don't hammer), and I wouldn't really miss him if he got quickhammered.

It would be good if we could get intent so we can get a claim and so the 4 non-voters can claim a potential innocent on him.

[Mathdino]

If anyone here thinks Una should be lynched, please write up a case.

[Mathdino]

That seems accurate.

Edit: It would be good if we could get your claim out of the way, sheep. It seems highly unlikely you're gonna get NK'd, so you claiming VT doesn't really hurt us.

[Mathdino]

If Gamma thinks we should lynch Kop instead, I'll sheep that.

Otherwise I think this is our lynch.

[Mathdino]

"lynch it" doesn't rhyme with "defeated"

6/10

Edit: oh shit a rela post gimme a second

[Mathdino]

Honestly I think Ghost has given us all the opinions/analysis we need.

I only really want Gamma to consent to the lynch. (in a not-saying-no kind of way)

Plus it'll be easier to catch up at night, and scum is unlikely to shoot a replacement even if the slot is obvtown.

[Mathdino]

ffs

[Mathdino]

gamma could've had an inno on him, that's why i wanted to wait

[Mathdino]

IF YOU ARE A HIDER, HERE IS YOUR TARGET (as agreed upon by your predecessor):

Gamma: Hides behind Una
fitz: Hides behind Kop

glhf

[Mathdino]

Don’t even.

dude i definitely alluded to that idea multiple times

ghost never went after sheep and redflavor hypoclaimed sheep as his target

[Mathdino]

I was hoping Gamma would be the hammer tbh. No one else who wasn't voting sheep showed much indication they were planning on hammering.

[Mathdino]

Furthermore, Gamma has no reason to claim his innocent without L-1 and intent to hammer.

[Mathdino]

If math was worried about it they wouldn’t have waffled on una. Saying the have a chance to be either scum or sk. But hey let’s vote sheep, the person who I think might be cleared from someone.

Sounds to me like they were trying to force a PR claim.

1. I no longer agree with a Una lynch. Kop was actually my alternative, as he was Ghost's main target. But sheep was really the obvious lynch IF AND ONLY IF there was no innocent.

2. You think I orchestrated this whole thing just to get Ghost to claim PR?

Dude couple things
A. If I legitimately thought Ghost was probably PR, I'd just shut up and shoot her (she's also obvtown so it's not like that's a bad shot).

B. I didn't totally think Ghost had an innocent on sheep. I thought there might be a very small chance she did, and there wasn't really indication in her ISO either way. She didn't seem interested in lynching OR clearing sheep. Red's hypoclaim left it in question.

[Mathdino]

Look whatever

just don't lynch Impede or Gamma if I die pls.

I'm extremely sure neither of them are SK/mafia.

I recommend any rolecops check some obv-not-mafia for SK. momo, Hawk, Una, etc.

I'd be pretty down with JK protection if there's one out there tbh.

[Mathdino]

Protip: If you don't want to get on people's bad side, maybe don't

A. spam/shitpost all of D1
B. sheep everyone else's reads all the time
C. make your first original scumread an OMGUS/chainsaw defence against an obv townie

Edit: ty bby <3

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah also remember to completely throw out all of our reads and analysis if you catch mafia.

SK hunting is a bitch. Impede/Ghost not-SK is really all I got.

[Mathdino]

OH HOLY SHIT IM ALIVE

AND WHAT THE SHIT HOW WAS I THAT WRONG

[Mathdino]

Ghost was for sure the MVP scum player, got shot by SK likely for being too conftown (and kinda PR-esque).

Goddamn.

Okay so we're looking solely at SK now.

I know very little about SK tells but here's a basic overview of what I'll be looking for:
- People who are scumhunting but also pretty much willing to lynch anyone
- People with no sense of sacrifice
- People who completely misunderstand how SK works
- People who might've felt threatened by A50 and Ghostslot

Obviously if anyone has a guilty on someone they should reveal now.

Edit: Wow only 7 alive.

Impede is first off the list, he's practically conftown to me (I would feel more comfortable if he were PR-checked though).

We need to have that conversation about Una because there were a few things indicating he didn't know anything about SK motivation.

No comment on the rest.

[Mathdino]

Screenplay early hammer indicates town. Kind of WIFOMy but that's all I got from his ISO.

Moon logic regarding Math-SK keeping Una-mafia alive also indicates town.

[Mathdino]

Tbh if I was a betting man and you told me Impede wasnt SK its Kop or Una.

Sheeping this.

VOTE: Kop

We save Una for the PR or for later.

[Mathdino]

wat

idek what you're asking

i'm conftown to myself but not to you so what's it matter

[Mathdino]

Meh. I can write a really basic defence for why I'm not SK (to Una and Screen, no doubt). Every point has an obvious rebuttal but it is what it is.

- I've played in such a dominating way that gets me shot by mafia or checked by a PR. (counterpoint: powerwolfing strat OP)
- I've lowkey requested that the PR target me on multiple occasions (counterpoint: WIFOM)
- I've directly asked for protection from JK (counterpoint: Math wanted to pretend that he was saved by JK and JK didn't actually target him)
- My levels of scumhunting make it less likely for SK to win in the end (counterpoint: Math felt he could win in a game of just him and townies)
- I've hard-defended multiple people (momo and A50 especially) from getting lynched when SK theoretically shouldn't care (counterpoint: buddying)
- I tried to break the game when I thought it was possible to given tons of PRs (counterpoint: I betted on 5T and won)

Points and counterpoints exist for every player in the game. I think objectively, I'm below Impede in terms of "least likely players to be SK". But I'm also personally biased.

Impede who you lynchin'

Edit: Screenplay tried to argue that by defending Una from a lynch, I was the SK who knew that Una was mafia and wanted to keep mafia alive longer to shoot more townies.

[Mathdino]

Screenplay tried to argue that by defending Una from a lynch, I was the SK who knew that Una was mafia and wanted to keep mafia alive longer to shoot more townies.

This isn’t a defense for you.

Impede asked me to clarify what I meant.

I'm arguing you're town because of batshit crazy logic that I don't think the SK would reasonably make up.

[Mathdino]

ughhhh

i went through Kop's ISO and there are a bunch of things inconsistent with my SK-hunting guide

this feels like lynchbait

i'm starting to think SK is actually hawk

[Mathdino]

prove it's impede

also what does it indicate to you that i'm still alive (other than the threat of me getting protected, which i guess is fairly obvious)

Edit: policy-lynch-worthy, screenplay
i solve groupscum lylos, not 1v6 SK games

[Mathdino]

you're literally better off lynching me today if you're that paranoid

i'm not gonna be significantly better than other townies at SK hunting lol, i don't "deserve" an extra day to "give" you the win (wtf?)

if you think i'm most likely to be SK, write a case, vote me, and we'll see if we can compromise later if town can't agree on a lynch

[Mathdino]

Finally put together a Kopcase.
That said, it's a towncase.

@hawk, was momo lynchbait in the last game you played with him? I recall playing with him before, Im not sure if we were in the same game the three of us, because a part of me seems to be remembering he was a hard player to play with and it was as if he was just trolling the game, rather than actively playing the game in serious mode.

Avoiding lynchbait, trying to get other players to talk about whether people are lynchbait.

If I were hider, I would hide behind Almost50.

It doesn't benefit him to shoot A50 here. It just confirms himself as not-hider (making him more likely to get shot), and removes the chance of killing town by way of hider.

VOTE: Impede

This is a wagon outside of Jay/red that I'd like to take off. I don't necessarily scum read Jay, but I just feel he's being hard pressed into a mislynch, I just don't think scum would be that stupid to focus all of the attention onto themselves in the manner he has done since gamestart. I obviously wouldn't like to think that we could possibly go into LYLO with him but I'm wanting to go into different areas rather than focus on him for days on end.

@Jay, Creature is null for me. I've played with Creature a few times, and in most of them, he wasn't entirely active so it's hard for me to get a lock on read on him. It's 50/50 if I was to vote for him to be the next lynch. Unless he shows me a sign that he is scum, I will act upon it.

Twice avoids lynchbait in Jay and Creature.

I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.

Is trying to argue me out of my lynch on the basis of high-info vs low-info lynches.

VOTE: Red

This is a avenue I think is what I want to go down right now. That hammer vote doesn't get him any town credit, and I think it stinks a lot of scum cutting ties. His vote on Una made no sense on day one towards the end of it, and he never really gave a good enough reason for me to believe that vote was genuine.

Lone wolfing after RedFlavor. Generally correct reasoning. Why shoot the slot you think is scum?

Why is Momo the best lynch today?

Again, seems to strongly care about who we actually lynch.

Right now in my mind, I'm happy to have the intention of having Sheep at L-1 unofficially.

But I'm also having a consideration on putting focus on Hawk and Una.

I think the last mafia could be lying in between Hawk and Sheep.

Again seems to care a lot.

I await to see these, because in all honesty, I didn't see any possible connections that would make him Creatures partner. He feels more of a loner which means he is either town or the SK.

Literally the first mention of SK. I guess this could set himself up for ability to lynch Una, but calling Una town makes the lynch straight up less likely.

Kop's town.
UNVOTE:

idk who the fuck to vote right now hang on

[Mathdino]

This thought just occurred to me... if an SK is genuinely scumhunting, one would expect them to be honest about their reads, yes? They have nothing to hide, no one to protect, they want to lynch maf. If we look at A50 as an SK kill (seems highly likely), I think there's a decent chance the SK actually thought A50 was scum. This is especially true of a N1 NK, as they would be less concerned with people SK-hunting, and even if they were cornered based on their reads, they could easily WIFOM their way out of it.

This means a few observations are probably true:
1) The SK would have most likely been present on the Creature wagon unless genuinely convinced he wasn't maf.
2) The SK would have to be decently convinced on scum!A50 -AND- been convinced that they couldn't get town to lynch him (why waste an NK on a foregone conclusion?)

Now, forgive me for probably being stupid and redundant, but this forces me to retract my point on Una earlier. This makes Una seem quite sus if you accept this logic.

I think SK is all but guaranteed to be in a slot that isn't highly polarizing, and probably especially likely to be flying under the radar with some genuine scumhunting thrown in. Candidates: Hawk, Kop, Ghost, Una. Added candidate because paranoia: Math

Willing to remove Hawk, as I think there's no way he would've shot A50.
Kop seemed to suspect A50, not a top scumread, but still... and A50 was his hider target... Plausible.
Red/Ghost seems plausible based on both Red's behavior, and Ghost's. Although that D1 hammer was a bit ballsy for an SK.
Una is far and away the most likely I think.

this post is the primary reason i think impede is not SK

[Mathdino]

no you don't understand

i agree impede has no idea how SK works

that's the point

he as SK, by his own SK-moonlogic, would not have shot A50

that post he made needs to be explained from SK-pede's point of view

did he make it all up, or did he legit think that was SK strategy

[Mathdino]

After reflecting for a moment, I think we go to VOTE: Mathdino.

A50's ISO doesn't seem to have anything resembling a crumb towards him being a Tracker, however..there is the off chance scum thought he really was the hider.
A50 hypoclaimed to hide behind Creature who was the lynch, and I don't think he ever claimed a 2nd target(?).

So scum could kill him off and there would be no risk for them being implicated.
Based off of this (and the kind of thinking I feel like the kill-decision took,) I'd say Mathdino killed A50.
The off-chance is that someone tried to frame him (read his previous post), but him saying that I'm the primary suspect for it is bullshit. (the only scenario where I killed A50 is the one where I'm a vig, never as scum)
Math was also "soft-defending" A50 D1, and his playstyle fits that of a buddying SK very well.

havingfitz is still a townread for me, same as Impede.
I'll try to sink in on sheep/Red next, but I feel like they are very difficult to read ever.

meanwhile this post is why i'm super shaky about Una-SK

similar reasoning, Una has no clue how to play as SK

[Mathdino]

then it should be fitz, right?

unless you disagree with my kopcase or the basic screenplay logic

[Mathdino]

His SK post was one of the last of the day. I think I already tried to clear Una that way previously.

I think fitz did the same thing as Una at D2 start. So that might also be bunk.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: fitz

literally the only one in this game without anti-SK tells

[Mathdino]

yeah okay so SK is probably in {fitz, Hawk, Impede} then

i'm betting one of them is either PR or is PR-confirmed town

so even if you guys do lynch me we can still win this pretty sure

feel free to do a una case though

[Mathdino]

You're correct. I realised it after I said that but I didn't feel it worth correcting. I see a lot of overnight replacements killed just because they're a widely townread wildcard. It's even happened to a me-slot.

The problem is that I widely broadcasted that Ghost might have an innocent on sheep (given that she hypohid behind sheep), followed by sheep flipping town.

The SK likely didn't consider that Ghost could've actually been the hider, or just didn't care.

[Mathdino]

Wait okay but Ghost then claimed she'd hypohide behind Una. Una-SK would be absolutely fucked if Ghost were the hider anyway. So from his perspective, it's safer to just assume she's not a hider and is instead some other PR.

So that directly implicates Una, against my reads

NKA gives me a headache. Talk to me about our lynch options.

[Mathdino]

It's possible your view of a good NK is different from mine. I literally claimed a while ago that SK-me would kill A50 first. This expands my lynchpool and removes a strong player.

Upon review, I agree that Hawk is almost definitely not SK.

Explain reads on Kop/Screen. Ideally with reference to what's already been said today regarding them.

[Mathdino]

TBH the fact that I'm still alive implicates Impede more than anyone.

Going solely on that fact, leaving me alive helps, in order:
Impede: has me pocketed
Una: needs me alive to have scumreads left
Hawk
fitz
Screenplay only if he thought he could lynch me, stupid otherwise
Kop

[Mathdino]

Don't care enough to ask you stuff lol. Any SK is just gonna say the most townreadable thing.

Another point for lynching fitz is that my awesome PR-hunting skills say he's definitely gonna claim VT, and is thus a safer wagon than anyone else.

[Mathdino]

Going after me this hard and then mislynching me tomorrow (before LyLo) is suicide for him. Regardless of his alignment. He's town I think.

[Mathdino]

UNA POST YOUR CASE ANYWAY ASAP

[Mathdino]

literally when you see this just copy paste your case with no adjustments/additions

[Mathdino]

Goddamn. Welcome to the townbloc. That's a relief.

k who's SK? Have you read my towncases on each player so far? Because everyone except fitz has given some kind of non-SK tell but the question is which ones matter more.

[Mathdino]

I'm starting to think this might be my worst towngame yet.

this is one fucking hundred percent accurate

literally every single one of your reads was backwards at some point

don't worry if we lynch the SK literally today you'll be redeemed

[Mathdino]

I don't think you're gonna convince me on Hawk.

Spend more time on Impede, and prove your townread on havingfitz.

If you read earlier in the day, I agree that Screenplay and Kop are unlikely SKs. Screenplay I'm concerned with given that OF COURSE sk is gonna leave us both alive to distract us. But yeah probably town.

[Mathdino]

Guys this game is literally solved by JK claim

JK protected someone last night (ideally me), 2 conftown
Lynch one of remaining 5
JK publicises next target
Lynch target if no kill
If JK dies, 2 conftown vs 3 unconfirmed, we have a 2/3 shot

JK should claim imo

[Mathdino]

"SK-hunting guide": I made that up on daystart using armchair mafia theory. I've been searching for MD articles on catching SKs to no avail.

Kopcase: I do think that SK would want to get town on the basis that shooting mafia would result in the horrible situation for SK right now; an entire town vs you. And I don't have an SK case on you, fitz. You're more of a PoE read.

Impede-SK: I don't think there's an advantage for Impede to not shoot A50. A50 is a good shot regardless of who's SK. The anti-SK-tell is that Impede didn't seem to know that.

Anti-SK-tells: Read my posts on Una and Screenplay before you knock it. I get you disagree on Kop.

Hider stuff: If you don't immediately see how I'm able to use that to make reads, I don't think we're gonna be able to back-and-forth enough for me to explain it to you. I've explained a lot of setup spec that you skim over while catching up and show little to no understanding of it. Just ignore it.

SK-me-killing-A50: I don't expect to be cleared. I don't see the point of you even bringing this up. My point to Impede was that most people, including me, would shoot A50, because A50 was a good kill. He seemed to think that SK-Math wouldn't shoot A50, which is just wrong, and I worry about the rest of his NKA.

Projecting-VT-claim: It's not exactly hard to tell you'd claim VT. Had you been PR, you wouldn't have been insisting to me all of D2 that there was only one PR. You also wouldn't have done that "if I were a vig, I wouldn't tell you" thing. It's not like SK is gonna shoot you anyway.

[Mathdino]

None of us are hider. fitz was the only one left who could reasonably claim hider, but he's pretty obviously VT.

JK should probably claim because JK claim breaks the game, but I suspect no JK either.

Means all that's left is Doctor (I don't think there's a doctor), Vengeful (we're fucked), Rolecop (good if they've already confirmed someone else here as town), and 1-shot Tracker (god help us).

[Mathdino]

I might be rolecop and if so I have an inno on Hawk.

[Mathdino]

Okay I think we can generally clear Una, right? Am I crazy? Like there's a bunch of good reasons he's not SK at this point.

[Mathdino]

I heavily disagree with no lynching down to even. Even number of players is pretty bad for us.

We should lynch someone who's obviously gonna claim VT anyway. Like fitz.

[Mathdino]

ok guys it doesn't work if you voted and tried to push the guy you have an inno on

[Mathdino]

Just wanna point out that this also works if you're 1-shot tracker and tracked a dead person.

[Mathdino]

Mafia gets 1SBPSK!me lynched if I get shot by them. 1-shot BP works as a delay or an endgame trump card. If SK gets shot N1 they're fucked no matter what.

[Mathdino]

I think it's possible this was done more as a self-preservation tactic since Math was paranoid of his own death by scum? Scum would definitely not want to waste an NK on a potentially protected target.

This is essentially correct. In general I always assume that the end-of-day lynch is town (unless they self-hammer or claim scum) and I was super concerned about town's ability to win a LyLo without me.

Had I known mafia was gonna die that night, I think I would've rather died than momo. With all the paranoia, there's little chance of me being NK'd in the future.

[Mathdino]

there's little chance of me being NK'd in the future.

Perhaps you have some insider info?

Unironically don't know what you're implying.

Like if you're saying I'm SK, no shit I'm not gonna die.

But the fact that mafia is dead means there's a lot of paranoia around me from also-living players Una and Screenplay. SK wants to set up an endgame that they can win.

[Mathdino]

If we do that, SK will know who the doc is (just look for whomever hypoclaimed your target) and just shoot the doc.

[Mathdino]

Keep calm and lynch fitz.

You agree Una's not SK?

[Mathdino]

consider that the longer that we spend in this awkward position of not lynching people

the longer SK has to figure out the PR

i personally do not know who the PR is yet (i habitually PR hunt)

this implies to me we're still in that sweet spot of it not being obvious

we need to lynch VTs and hope SK doesn't spot PR

it'd be really funny if PR was me though because i'd be lying about all of the above if it were me

[Mathdino]

Screenplay needs to be checked I think
Or me

If there's a doc they should be protecting the person that scum will most think is a power role other than you
None of us are hiders gg

I'm better 1 shot tracker has nothing at this point so just stay alive to be inno child

[Mathdino]

Give reads before we do? Wouldn't be surprised if you got NK'd.

I think fitz is the right call. We can all shout "I'm not SK" until we're red in the face but it's a game of probabilities and he seems most probable. His deconstruction/nullification of towncases on other people also indicates SK that needs lynches.

[Mathdino]

Vig doesn't exist. 2 NKs would be the result of lynching a Vengeful, which is negative utility at this point.

[Mathdino]

right, so no one has an innocent on him and he's VT

can we get L-1 and intent now

we're not gonna find SK by standing around and talking about how we suck at finding SK

[Mathdino]

longer deadlines are anti-town

i despise the "we have a long deadline" argument, it's great AtE for newbies

you know exactly why i'm trying to shorten the day

what are you hoping to discuss with those 12 days

do you have towncases on people other than me, impede, and kop, because if so now would be the time to share

also what do you think is my or impede's lynch order to victory

[Mathdino]

unabombah why would anyone let themselves get lynched as a vengeful

just claim if you're about to get lynched

[Mathdino]

um

if i were on the receiving end of the most likely lynch today i would just write all the cases i have. more information is anti-town because it makes the PR more obvious to SK. if we keep PR alive we can win by PoE

but i wouldn't be spending all of my time fixating on my own lynch, town can afford 2 of those

push your scumreads and defend your townreads
you know i'm pushing you primarily on PoE, there's like nothing to defend against, so don't worry about it

[Mathdino]

I would also vote Math and Kop. Why? Because I am not the SK = better odds they are.

also this is dangerously presumptuous

SK can let town tear itself apart all it wants, they don't NEED to be on the wagon

[Mathdino]

Meh. Completely random lynch (assuming no PR) creates 55% winrate for town. When it gets to that point I tend to start advocating for speedlynches.

If PR claims today and/or gets shot tonight it's 56%. PR claim tomorrow or getting shot tomorrow night gives 58%. PR staying alive until the very end gives a 69% winrate.

We should be lynching between me, fitz, and Impede. Going after other lynch options increases the risk of hitting PR.

[Mathdino]

literally the worst reason

why would i act this way as SK if i wanted to lay low and not get shot or JK'd

like for whatever reason it doesn't matter how i play in the open queue or really how active/smart i am, it's hard to lynch me

i didn't NEED to put this much into the game lol

furthermore i ended yesterday literally thinking Ghost had to have been a hider

doesn't that seem like kind of an idiotic kill

[Mathdino]

also keep in mind that the hider plan all that time ago (back when i thought there was a 55% chance of there being a hider) actively hurts me

because people are highly likely to want to hide behind me or check me since i'm getting townread all the time

that plan adds extra ways for me to get myself caught as SK

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: actively hurts SK-me

basically there's a ton of things i've done this game that would just make it harder in the end

- Hider plan
- Constantly WIFOMing whether or not I'm actually a PR (the point of that was to draw the NK, I can give specific examples)
- Attempted gamebreaking (this hurts SK as much as mafia)
- Asking for JK protection after guessing no Doc exists
- Trying to town-clear as many people as possible

Now in retrospect we know town only had 2 PRs the whole time. But SK-me wouldn't have known that, and wouldn't have known we'd end up in this position. I habitually break game setups, yeah, but not to the point of suicide. Every one of those 5 points had the opportunity to massively backfire on me.

And saying that SK has a 1-shot Bulletproof Vest isn't a good reason. Mafia would immediately know who the SK is and could either kill me again or push hard to get me lynched.

[Mathdino]

Sometimes I wish you didn't defend yourself so actively.

bet you'd say the same thing about A50 and momo tbh

The point is that none of this makes any sense, and if you're scumreading me, you have to make it make sense outside of "paranoia". "Paranoia" has been proven time and time again to be a horrible reason for a scumread. It's literally "I'm townreading this person but I'm scared of them as scum".

Okay, great. Then come up with a narrative for me.

This is probably the 7th time I've asked you to do that and you relentlessly decline.

On top of all that you have to explain the Gamma kill when both members of that slot were townreading me, when I thought he was a hider with an inno on sheep, and when I know full well the 2 players that are gonna come in here and start pushing me. FURTHERMORE, Gamma's predecessor even claimed the slot would hide behind you! Hilariously, if I were right about Gamma-hider, SK could've just shot you and take out 2 townies.

I'm doing this because I have massive evidence on my side. I didn't really care about fitz scumreading me (that's natural since I'm calling for his death) or Screenplay doing it (who wasn't even here for D1). But after you've been proven wrong this many times, having been there from the very beginning, I expect more of you than "paranoia".

And for around the 7th time, I'm putting the burden of proof on you.

[Mathdino]

Here's a narrative that makes sense for fitz. I'm half doing this as an example to you and half doing this to show I'm being consistent: This can be done.

fitz early game is NAI.

fitz's catchup is something I'd expect from him as any alignment. Thoughts as he goes. His scumreads are Jay and Impede, classic ML bait. Notably, in his catchup post, his only negative mention of Impede is Impede being the only one actively scumreading fitz. This shows survivor mentality.

After I asked, he then actually went through Impede's ISO and wrote a case. A lot of it relies on shade toward both Impede and Jay, suggesting an association. Clear mafia-hunting but also a lot of confbias. Overall not super scummy.

Then after Jay's claim he switches back to Impede, when, again, half his Impedecase relied on a Jay association and the rest relied on Impede looking fake and flipfloppy (which I'd already cleared on playstyle).

By D2 with the scumflip all of us were basically just looking for associations. His intro post is NAI. Later shows correct understanding of the Hider (I missed this in the moment) and corrects Una. Again this fuckup makes Una almost conftown.

Next catchup post pushes back against my claiming plans on the basis that more info hurts town. He also claims notvig

and leaves room open for still being the vig

, which is actually a huge SK tell in that vig is optimal claim for SK. Then this is some pretty weird shit that I can't really quite explain why is weird yet:

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

1228 advocates for just continually going after scummy people instead of explicitly SK-hunting, suggests SK could've been on Creature lynch. No surprise given that fitz was off the Creature lynch.

1260 tries to clear Red (this is obviously genuine since it's mafia-hunting) but then casually drops "They could still be anti-town (SK) of course...but first things first IMO (i.e. get scum)", which was pretty much unnecessary.

1561 is another catchup that I need help to parse. It seems to suggest that 2T is a possible setup because vig might not have actually claimed, which lends credence to the idea that SK literally doesn't exist. Which is hilarious.

I'm not reading deeply into D3 but the best I can say is that fitz is very much in survival mode right now given that his lynchpool is literally the people who want to lynch him. I don't think I have to explain why this is suspect as hell.

[Mathdino]

I honestly wouldn't blame you if you ended it now. I didn't expect there to be that much material in fitz's ISO but there were definitely more than a few tells on closer look.

This list is likely to some extent correct:

Hawk
Una
Math
Kop
Srceen
Fitz

But at this point I'm having trouble seeing it as anyone other than fitz.

Impede's "oh fuck I don't know how SK decides who to kill" thing I'm pretty sure wasn't made up.

This means that either he's an unreasonably dumb SK (who thinks to himself, hmmm, let's kill the most likely person to be mafia! and shoots A50) or he's cleared.

So lynchpool (unless Hawk is way better at fooling us than I thought) is {Math, fitz, Screen, Kop}. I would be surprised if none of these were confirmable.

So 3 lynches gives a win.

[Mathdino]

While we're at it, my post #815 was a VT breadcrumb inspired by mutantdevle's "THIS IS A REACTION TEST" breadcrumb in a game that A50 and I played together.

Basically I took his post, spoilered some bits, and removed a "V" and added a "T". I expected to be able to use it before my ISO got so expansive that you could theoretically hide anything in there, but I welcome people to try to find early breadcrumbs for any other roles. I think there was a point during D2 where I said that I already claimed my role so the bright side is that you'd only be looking through my first 200 posts.

With this I'm basically proving that, unlike fitz, I never had ANY intention of being able to claim vig or anything else. I purposefully however tried to play my PR game (which is aggressively direct other PRs and pretend that everyone else could be PR) to draw the NK.

[Mathdino]

Meh, that's fair. I welcome the feedback there. I do have particular motivations for being this vocal/dominant.

My perspective is that if I can stop a bad discussion from happening, I will. The availability cascade is a cognitive bias where the more people talk about a belief, the more credence it gets.

I had fairly solidified townreads on A50, momo, and Impede by around end of D1. My concern was that the more that people theorised about scenarios in which they're scum, the more that idea gains undue credibility.

So I try to manipulate town in the opposite direction. By repeating a bunch of townreads and hard-defending them I can focus the conversation on a few much better options. That said, if people make good cases on my townreads, I'll consider, but I consider general paranoia and townbloc-breaking to be anti-town.

Not necessarily scummy

, but anti-town. I tried to sideline you from the conversation because I didn't feel your input was valuable in answering town's main questions (no offence intended, I've also been wrong ). I knew that there was nothing lynchworthy A50/momo/Impede had done, and I also knew lynching them early would be negative utility because
A. If I call them town enough times, scum will just NK them and we won't have to deal with that problem
B. They're the type of players I can read better lategame anyway.

Anyway all that said I totally get the "wanting to see other people react", and if that's your intent, I recommend
1. Not directing your post at me but at other people
2. Asking me not to respond to your case for now so you can see what others think (I'm generally pretty compliant with tests!)
3. Asking specific people instead of posing questions to everyone. It's hard to get a discussion going when no one wants to be the first to get involved in it.

But yeah, that's all fair. You must know that in doing what you're doing, you're likely to get NK'd, but that also helps us if you're VT, so ^_^

[Mathdino]

Fuck. ing. gottem.

[Mathdino]

Ladies and gentlemen, the first JK9++ win.

@Mod

: I consider this very scumsided for reasons though. C9++ is pretty balanced so we can use that as a baseline.

[Mathdino]

Also Hawk was the PR right?

I was sure Hawk was PR until Una started outright claiming rolecop with an innocent on me, reaction testing the rest of the town.

[Mathdino]

@Mod: I consider this very scumsided for reasons though. C9++ is pretty balanced so we can use that as a baseline.

So taking C9++ as balanced, for reference, they have the roles:
C's: 1-shot Cop --> Cop --> 1-shotCop+Cop
D's: Doc --> 1-shotDoc+Doc --> 2 Docs
V's: 1-shotVig --> Vig --> 1-shotVig+Vig
M's: InnoChild --> Masons --> InnoChild+Masons
B's: Roleblocker --> 1-shotRB+RB

Which correlates to this setup's I, P, K, H, and R.

Any cop is significantly better than a tracker. Trackers can't townclear people and are literally only useful if they follow the kill.

You could argue JK is better than doc but JK can't protect other power roles, and is thus really mainly useful as a WIFOMy roleblocker.

Vengeful is honestly useless in an open setup. Full vig is more anti-town than 1-shot Vig IMO.

Hider is worse than innocent child; its job is basically to die or to try to clear people (which might result in 2 deaths). And masons are OP as fuck.

Rolecop is hilariously worse than Roleblocker. I don't think I need to explain this.

Meanwhile C9++'s scum gets Roleblocker and Godfather as its roles, which are definitely outshadowed by Jack of All Trades (can roleblock but can also dodge investigatives) and Bus Driver (completely messes up leashing).

So yeah C9++ is bueno, JK9++ is no bueno. We got lucky. Creatscum+Redscum was kind of an autoloss for that team. And fitz made way too many mistakes.

[Mathdino]

Big props to Kop for playing his role to the "C"! Literally!

[Mathdino]

A50: Great play D1, solid reads, felt you did go a bit heavy on the "I'm a PR" department when you probably could've gotten me shot instead.

Ghost: Scum MVP for absolute certain. I'm not actually sure why fitz shot you other than the fact that I basically told everyone to never lynch you. Your mistake might've been doing a little too much in a multiball . I also had a lot of suspicion from your entry (being mostly IIoA) but you ended up looking like tryhard town and your replace-out was INCREDIBLY townish.

Assembler: Hasn't posted in 2 weeks, pls prod.

Creature: Weak scum effort but did well at distancing himself from Red early on, which is really all he had to do.

havingfitz: You were fucked by a combination of PoE and a bunch of tells as to your mindset that I cased on last page. I didn't think I could actually SK-hunt until I read your ISO and realised "holy shit this is exactly what an SK ISO looks like". Subtle differences. On the whole you played well though; could've won if not for shooting Ghostie.

Hawk: Not sure how you made yourself so obvtown when your voting record wasn't all that obvtown, but you did, which is mainly what you needed to do. PoE'd yourself solidly out of the lynchpool.

Impede: Proves once again his reads are awesome given more time, while simultaneously proving that he somehow manages to be scummy when coming at things from a totally town mindset. Could probably be less defencive

Jay: yessiree pretty much speaks my thoughts in the dead thread. Your lynch was primarily one of policy; I didn't actually think you were scum but we needed a lynch. I think in an alternate timeline you definitely could've turned your game around and completely refocused the town on obvscum Creature without having to claim vigilante. Your read was good but you only gave it when people forced you to, and that's why you were run up.

Kop: Laid low, kept himself outside the NK-pool while not getting bad enough to actually lynch. Essentially correct PR play.

momo: Some good shit. You weigh yourself down a little with moon logic and crazy scenarios, but you always project a town mindset and I think with more information your reads improve by a lot.

sheep: Ya gotta stop with the spamming. It works in games where a lot of the players spam but you have to read the room. I'm sure half the people that lynched you did it out of annoyance more than a super solid scumread. And the fact that you didn't read or pay attention to the game (while being hyperactive) and then OMGUS'd really hurt your case. When you were with it, you had a good head on your shoulders tho.

Screen: Bit over-the-top with the no-nonsense threats, but I do think both hammers were basically correct play and helped move the game along. Nice game-ending vote.

Una: I think I already gave all my advice to you during the game!

@Mod

: Thanks for hosting! Moderation was great and the replace-outs were both appropriate and prompt. I do think in retrospect that JK9++ is pretttty scumsided but now we know xD

[Mathdino]

I find it sad that even after all this time until the very end, I thought Impede was the SK.

My prior experience with him was pretty essential to my read. I'm glad I survived long enough to stonewall that lynch option.

[Mathdino]

I fear that too, but I also prefer town leadering anyway (as actual town lol), and I don't think I have enough of a scum meta for people to quite tell the difference yet.

I don't like being wrong and I do a lot to make sure I'm not wrong. It's hard to be right when you're scum!

But thanks! Of all the games I was playing during this one's run, I was definitely most invested here. Super interesting dynamic between the players. Plus the initial advantage we got (Creature scum) against a scumsided setup was a huge motivation to pick up a rare JK9++ win.

[Mathdino]

OpenWolfy

VOTE: Jaydragon

This makes it 9 votes and since there is 60 people and 23 is the majority it is L - 55

VOTE: RedFlavor are y'all losing your touch...vote this

Credit to momo for tonereading an RVS vote!

Long deadlines benefit scum. I'll support extension only if there are replacements or we seriously need input from certain players.

I don't like RedFlavor's last post. Seems opportunistic.

VOTE: RedFlavor

As good a place as any to start a non-policy wagon.

Credit to me for pushing it!

Red, seems to me that momo’s frustration was genuine. He seemed annoyed that town would multi-vote since it only makes the game confusing.

The flip side is, it’s probably a decent reaction test to make it look like someone got hammered. So I disagree somewhat, but he at least seemed to be genuine.

Pedit: Momo makes a good point about the Jay wagon. This makes Red look bad. However, I don’t like momo’s confidence in townreading A50. Seems contrived.

Credit to Impede for having a good gut but being waffly about it!

a quick lolcase
to be clear my previous read on red was based off tonereading which is horseshit compared to motivation reading

Spoiler:

VOTE: RedFlavor

They fled the last game and left us wandering in the darkness. It's payback time.

I don't remember that game but it is probably howl or magic girls
VOTE: almost50

This is almost definitely affected by my confbias of now scumreading Red but
this is weird, it's like he's going through the motions of throwing out a random vote. No fake-RVS reason given, just a vote.

I don't think that Mathdino is scum because posting reads this early will start a discussion and a scum would not do that. The part where he says "he speaks like a player and not a townie?" is kinda weird tho

btw I also don't know anything about anyone except una, I played my first game with him however it was like 4 months ago and I forgot about that game (on purpose ).

Earlier I called this surface level scumhunting and then assumed that people who do that are just bad town. I haven't seen further evidence of Red being bad town so I consider this terrible reason for calling me town (followed by lowkey throwing shade at a supposed townread) kinda scummy.

kop's questions to mathdino about others and himself seems ok and townie.
And other people are null
BTW, I have 3 finished games here but I played a few games on other sites

Scum's best tool is divide & conquer. Kop's whole thing was "wow posting a reads list this early, seems forced". I see Red encouraging this on purpose to fan that conflict.

Tbh if Kop is scum then Red is probably not scum with him but we have no information so fuck pre-flip associatives.

It was RVS and double votes were under the VC. You could easily check if they were double votes and I dont know how it is bad for town. For kop, he dont really try hard to look like town like momo did in his post. What I think is momo is trying to look townie here because he is scum.
VOTE: momo

A dumbass vote after we just had a whole discussion about momo-lynchbait. Opportunistic, voting someone for calling something else anti-town. "He's trying to look town" is the most basic reason possible to call someone scum.

What's up humans?

This is Finn's entire ISO! Assemble also posted once, but -at least- he said something game-related.

Let me lead by example

VOTE: BigFinn

Yes he have been really quiet and it started to becoming suspicious

Again fanning the flames. BigFinn will probably get replaced, Lynching All Lurkers isn't really a helpful discussion to have.

Basically I haven't seen a single good thought from RedFlavor so far, but I see a lot of thoughts and baseless reads thrown around.

On reread, this isn't gonna be very convincing because you guys will literally just disagree with me on what's a pro-town discussion to have. But at the very least this tells you where I'm at.

my wagons are awesome, sheep meeeeeeee

AND CREDIT TO ME FOR MY LOLCASES ALWAYS BEING RIGHT