Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Impede]

/conf

[Impede]

What in the actual....

Did we just....

Oh well.

[Impede]

It's too early for this crap.

VOTE: Una

[Impede]

Just let it go Jay.

[Impede]

Jay is the SK, that’s why he has a survivor wincon. Game solved. Great effort. Let’s go home guys

[Impede]

Don't try to use "logic" and "words"

[Impede]

Math, care to elaborate why the hell you townread me? I don’t recall saying anything remotely AI

[Impede]

Lmao. That’s fair. And accurate.

[Impede]

Scum aren’t likely to come to the direct defense of a partner. Esp D1.

I do agree that Math’s reads seem a bit stretchy, but I don’t think it’s AI just yet, as he could just be trying to stimulate discussion.

[Impede]

Wow what a snoozefest. All the theory talk isn't game-advancing at all. I know Math is posting up a readslist, so I'll do the same. This is mostly gut off of reading the past 2-3 pages.

Momo, Jay
Math, A50

Kop, Hawk

Una, Fitz
-

Everyone else is

null

for lack of content.

[Impede]

Oh and Happy New Year! =D

[Impede]

Red, seems to me that momo’s frustration was genuine. He seemed annoyed that town would multi-vote since it only makes the game confusing.

The flip side is, it’s probably a decent reaction test to make it look like someone got hammered. So I disagree somewhat, but he at least seemed to be genuine.

Pedit: Momo makes a good point about the Jay wagon. This makes Red look bad. However, I don’t like momo’s confidence in townreading A50. Seems contrived.

[Impede]

However, I don’t like momo’s confidence in townreading A50. Seems contrived.

momo TRs me for 2 reasons, the first of which is I acknowledged his play is usually scummy as Town and even provided reference, so -to him- I must be Town bc I did not capitalize on the fact he is lynch-bait.

The second reason I'd rather not go into, but I'd say it was a false assumption on his part.

So, both momo and Mathdino are correctly TRing me but for the wrong reasons.

Scum would say this. Just FYI. Totally NAI, but this is EXACTLY how scum would capitalize on this sort of situation correctly.

[Impede]

Unas town so there's 1/5 of your nulls solved

I think you're either wrong, or right for the wrong reason.

[Impede]

Totally not game-related and definitely not buddying: Math, if you're ever interested in a hydra, I really like your playstyle and feel like I could learn a thing or two if you're up for it after certain game(s) end.

[Impede]

Also, I'd hide behind Momo

[Impede]

If he was mislynched in other games it does not mean that he is town every game and he is most likely scum in this game

Why do you say he is most likely scum?

[Impede]

@ impede...why am I one of your two scum reads?

Mostly for producing posts without content. The catch-up is nice though, so stay tuned. Need to reevaluate a bit.

[Impede]

If he was mislynched in other games it does not mean that he is town every game and he is most likely scum in this game

Why do you say he is most likely scum?

he definitely answered this iirc, this feels like asking a question for the sake of asking a question

He did answer it, but the consensus was/is that it was a weak answer. Giving him an opportunity to provide a real scumread that has nothing to do with the "double voting" crap. Otherwise, it seems to me that he'd acknowledge that his vote rationale is flimsy and remove it.

Also, this isn't accomplishing anything right now. UNVOTE:

pedit: The case on Red is good. Dude comes off opportunistic and not really interested in advancing any meaningful discussion.

I want to throw this out there though: What if Red is just bad/newb town? Are we cool with policy lynching? It seems to me based on other play I've seen from him that there's a decent chance he's just a careless player and may just be throwing out bad content just to keep active.

As far as policy lynching goes, I love policy lynching and will string someone up in a heartbeat if there's a decent chance they are either scum or just bad/lurking. Just want to be sure that we're convinced that he's either NOT newbtowning or that we SHOULD be policy lynching.

pedit2: Jay, I agree. Need to see a real readslist from you. Doesn't have to have all the justification there I suppose, as long as you'll field questions.

[Impede]

You'd be even less believable if you claimed hider and then said "whoops I don't have any results to share with

the class

".

@fitz:

Impede-scum is an unpopular choice. Sell me/

the rest of the class

on it? Would be good to have competing wagons.

Please demonstrate towards

the class

your answer and your personal reasoning.

This project will be worth 20% of your final grade.

Just found this lol. Jay is one-upping your "class" analogy pretty hard.

In all seriousness though, a few questions:

1) I'm thinking that a lot of Jay's behavior is somewhat likely to be frustration-driven because he's been ragged on this entire game.

@Math

, are you confident that his scummy behavior (it IS scummy) isn't just a result of being badgered?
2)

@Sheep

, you literally just got done saying that you preferred Red over Jay. It made sense to me at the time, but now you're on the Jaywagon. Why did you prefer Red over Jay initially and what changed your mind?

[Impede]

Me giving the setup history wasn't really useless for those of us who can study the previous uses of this setup for better strats, Dino. People can disagree with what I said, but none of what I've said is truly useless. The fact that you consider stuff like that useless is more telling to me, honestly.

Useless is when you say "OMG GUYS NOOOO WE'RE GONNA LOSE NOW (statistically)". If you want to be useful, you should propose a way that we should go about this game. Do you have any proposals or, better yet, any suspicions relevant to our ACTUAL game that we are in right now as opposed to games that have been played in the past which have no bearing on today?

pedit: That's the most bizarre readslist I could possibly think of for this game. It literally just looks like one giant OMGUS to me.

Why do you scumread Creature and townread Kop? Also, don't ignore my other question in this post.

[Impede]

My town read comes from my earlier conversation with Kop, because he didn't just drag me through the dirt more for making a mistake and isn't advocating "policy Lynch" like Dino every other post. His posts also seem like a town agenda to me. Likewise with Momo, but particularly because of his annoyance with the multi-votes and my gut agreeing that he's townie.

The almost town is have big moments in the game so far and honestly seem to want too find scum. They're the leans.

The Nulls is due to Una not being around recently and Assemble not being here period. Fits vote on me honestly can make a little bit of sense with his reasoning, and your currently moving your way up to townlean, Impede.

I agree with most of the reasons of why Red is scum, and Creature is there because not only is his RVS vote still on me after all this time, his only relevant comment recently was answering Math's general question to everyone in one sentence only after Dino shit on me for saying "none", he didn't want the same thing and just said it to say he was there.

As for Dino? I'm not even going to try to read him right now because, like you said, the fustration and his constant shitting on anything I do makes me want to Lynch him for no other reason then to just increase my enjoyment of the game. But not only is that hurtful to town, it also is just going to make me look worse. I want to actually contribute nicely, but I decided to also be a shithead and post my reads the way I did if for no other reason then to annoy him.

Sheep has literally changed his mind Instantly after saying things twice. His name is accurate. He doesn't seem like he wants to help town but instead get rid of whoever someone else wants to get rid of, probably to get on their good side.

Answering your first question, Impede: Yeah, I say Creature is a possible choice as Scum. I say he should be put towards the center of attention now to see what he does.

VOTE: Creature

Thanks, I think this gives me what I need.

VOTE: Jay

[Impede]

L-2 btw.

[Impede]

I also want everyone to try again on who they scumread/want to lynch for today.
Both Elsa and Red are on the table as lynch-candidates, but I have reason to believe I already found scum, and his buddies conveniently "missed" the tells.
Turning towards the easy target (Elsa) right now makes me think there's already scum in the wagon..

Please just explain. Game's slow enough that I think you're gonna have to wait a while before you get answers from everyone.

In case you needed more evidence on Una being town, A50, there you go. Scum doesn't write shit like this.

Wtf? Epically disagree. I could just as easily argue that he's trying to defuse the wagon by sounding all cryptic and wise, while being non-specific so that he doesn't actually have to have a plan.

[Impede]

I have a feeling I'm missing a vital part of someones progression here when I read pages 5-10.

I also want everyone to try again on who they scumread/want to lynch for today.
Both Elsa and Red are on the table as lynch-candidates, but I have reason to believe I already found scum, and his buddies conveniently "missed" the tells.
Turning towards the easy target (Elsa) right now makes me think there's already scum in the wagon..

You're not going to gain anything by trying to get someone to blindly and independently verify what you've found in this game. Better to make your case and see how it's received.

[Impede]

If this wasn't posted by scum, I'm not sure what kind of a townie it would be posted by.

This is utterly and completely valid.

[Impede]

Una, what's your take on Jay? You really think he's just lynchbait?

pedit: Definitely not what I was getting at. And your case on A50 is decent on its face. I'll be reviewing. Also, not a fan of introducing further WIFOM layers by trying to predict what scum will do in-thread. Makes everything more annoying to analyze.

[Impede]

Hey all... Catching up.

... Can I at least get your reason for your vote now, Impede?

See below:

My town read comes from my earlier conversation with Kop, because he didn't just drag me through the dirt more for making a mistake and isn't advocating "policy Lynch" like Dino every other post. His posts also seem like a town agenda to me. Likewise with Momo, but particularly because of his annoyance with the multi-votes and my gut agreeing that he's townie.

These are purely self-interested reads.

The almost town is have big moments in the game so far and honestly seem to want too find scum. They're the leans.

The Nulls is due to Una not being around recently and Assemble not being here period. Fits vote on me honestly can make a little bit of sense with his reasoning, and your currently moving your way up to townlean, Impede.

Giving Fitz some credit here seems contrived... like you're trying to throw us off the scent that all your reads are OMGUS. The nod to me also seems a bit like buddying, but idk, maybe you actually have a reason for this

I agree with most of the reasons of why Red is scum, and Creature is there because not only is his RVS vote still on me after all this time, his only relevant comment recently was answering Math's general question to everyone in one sentence only after Dino shit on me for saying "none", he didn't want the same thing and just said it to say he was there.

Red was an easy out for you and your response was an easy one too. "Agree with most" is a very safe phrasing here. The RVS vote thing with Creature is pretty weak. So is the activity assessment without making any mention that it would basically be a PL

As for Dino? I'm not even going to try to read him right now because, like you said, the fustration and his constant shitting on anything I do makes me want to Lynch him for no other reason then to just increase my enjoyment of the game. But not only is that hurtful to town, it also is just going to make me look worse. I want to actually contribute nicely, but I decided to also be a shithead and post my reads the way I did if for no other reason then to annoy him.

You admit here that you are in OMGUS territory. This is actually a bit refreshing, because up until now I wasn't positive you were self-aware. However, it's concerning because it means that you know your anti-town behavior is anti-town.

Sheep has literally changed his mind Instantly after saying things twice. His name is accurate. He doesn't seem like he wants to help town but instead get rid of whoever someone else wants to get rid of, probably to get on their good side.

This smells like OMGUS as well. It's so redundant at this point though that it almost comes off like VI behavior. Which doesn't really dissuade my vote much tbh because, as stated previously, I love me a policy lynch.

Answering your first question, Impede: Yeah, I say Creature is a possible choice as Scum. I say he should be put towards the center of attention now to see what he does.

VOTE: Creature

It's a weird top scumread to have and definitely don't agree with your rationale, but trying to wagon Creature is actually town-productive here

All that to say, you managed to push me more towards scum/PL territory with that post than towards town whose play might improve.

[Impede]

Idea of Una-scum is crazy. He hasn't convinced me on his reads yet but he's definitely convinced me on his alignment.

A point in A50's favour is that he redirected the whole game to suddenly focus on a budding Creature wagon, which seems to consist solely of scummy players. I don't see the scum motivation yet.

I could strong-scumread A50 later but he's not a good D1 lynch.

For D1 lynches I like lynching players that the consensus agrees are too scummy to stay in the game or read properly for the rest of the game. The players that'll continue being on everyone's lynchlists until we do the deed. Not the players that are clearly contributing new/original ideas. Even if they're scum, they're helping us in the meantime by giving us more material to analyse later.

A50 and Hawk are in that boat (fitz too but less so since I'm townreading him); I could scumread them, and I'm having serious trouble reading them now, but that's D1 syndrome. When players like that are scum, I usually catch them D2.

Gimme a different scumread to work with.

Bookmarking this. This is fence-sitty enough on A50 to suggest an associative read if we get a scumflip on either him or Math.

D1 lynch rationale is nice though, but scum could just as easily post this.

[Impede]

like lynches in red/jay

Strange, both feel like mislynches.

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

And ironically they are both voting you.

VIs.

This is mostly worthless without meta to go off of. You can't vouch for what would be ML bait vs scum behavior in someone without some sort of baseline. I can appreciate that this is probably just a gut feel you have, but you can't expect anyone else to get behind it unless you actually have something of substance to present.

[Impede]

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

Listen to you. You're making no cases, no effort to sort anyone. You're not voting, and you're defending whoever the majority thinks maybe good lynches w/o giving any rational reason for it nor providing an alternative.

Now I acknowledge I have seen you do this as Town too, but I'm not even getting that sinking feeling you're Town here.

Like why do you think I picked YOU as my hypothetical target if I was Hider?

This is wolfy. I could see this being town trying to pressure a scumread, but it comes off as contrived.

[Impede]

Calling us Village Idiots is not something that will make either of our votes move off of you, Creature. It does the opposite, in fact. That is also dismissive as all hell towards any suspicion on you.

Such a weird post. You have this perception that this entire game revolves around your own survival (and by extension, so does everyone else's gameplay). You really need to drop this. His calling you VIs is not an attempt to get you to unvote... that's not a sensible playstyle. It's an attempt to express HIS belief that you are town. THIS is why you are getting scumread dude. You aren't prioritizing gamesolving over your own survival and it makes it really hard to want you alive during a more critical gamestate.

[Impede]

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

Listen to you. You're making no cases, no effort to sort anyone. You're not voting, and you're defending whoever the majority thinks maybe good lynches w/o giving any rational reason for it nor providing an alternative.

Now I acknowledge I have seen you do this as Town too, but I'm not even getting that sinking feeling you're Town here.

Like why do you think I picked YOU as my hypothetical target if I was Hider?

This is wolfy. I could see this being town trying to pressure a scumread, but it comes off as contrived.

You know what? I've just sneezed AND coughed. I bet "now you could see it being Town catching a cold", but it would still comes off as scummy sneezing/coughing to you. Right? Right!

I didn't hear you sneeze and cough, so it's hard to say. I do hear a lot of "woof woof" though.

[Impede]

Sheep, please go to the mafiascum wiki and look up VI. In fact, I'm just saying it now. It means Village Idiot. Do you think 335 that his "VIs" mean villagers? Use context, bud.

--- Post Edit ---

I'm going out of my way to point out suspicious behaviour yet now your also saying it's just because I'm looking for survival. Also dismissive.

Also, him calling us Village Idiots ≠ he thinks we're Town. It means he's dismissing us as actual players and is also trying to make it so you just leave him alone.

holy shit
village idiot is villager
he thinks youre town

i think
or am i stupid

I read it as Village Idiot. Which I don't actually associate to a role, more to the concept of someone who is newbtown/ML bait.

[Impede]

Decided to take a closer look at Kop rather than continue lazily nullreading him. Not enough for me to want to vote him, but it's moved him to a scumlean for me.

Kop: POLICY LYNCH. idk him giving advice to jay seems really forced, the way he's doing it. like he's speaking as a player and not as a townie?

Didn't really take notice of this at the time because of how forced Math's readslist was, but it echoes my exact sentiment of Kop's early play.

His entrance with the hammer response and all of the being LAMIST while also trying to look annoyed at Jay just comes off wrong. Lots of nice theory talk, but no real content.

Can you elaborate on some of these, because this is striking me as forced reads. Your accusing me of looking forced, this is more forced shit rather than actual reads.

How does Almost50 look town, what does town look like? He's made one RVS vote, and one filler post. How does that make him look town?

Creature, if you believe he is nullscum, why aren't you voting him since he's virtually your only scum read?

Impede, how is he towning around?

Jay, so your happy to lynch someone just to learn them to stop acting scummy, rather than actually lynching someone who you scum read? Do you scum read Jay or not?

Myself, your talking about policy lynching someone on page 4, and no reason because Fitz has painted myself as a policy lynch because of previous games.

Overall, reading these reads, I don't think they are actually genuine reads right now, and is just trying to look active.

VOTE: Mathdino

This is a jankity post. But it demonstrates two things to me: 1) Kop seems meticulous about his posts (scummy imho, but maybe personality), 2) For all the effort, he actually put no effort into understanding town motivation for Math's readslist and took it as an opportunity to discredit and vote.

@math I understand your reason by how or why you've posted the reads, I just felt they were forced rather than actual reads. Some of them I didn't agree with but I'll follow your thoughts and see how you progress with them.

After the previous post, this is very diplomatic. Why make nice-nice here? Any town motivation one might've ascertained from his previous post just went out the window because he just released all the pressure he applied to Math.

VOTE: Impede

This is a wagon outside of Jay/red that I'd like to take off. I don't necessarily scum read Jay, but I just feel he's being hard pressed into a mislynch, I just don't think scum would be that stupid to focus all of the attention onto themselves in the manner he has done since gamestart. I obviously wouldn't like to think that we could possibly go into LYLO with him but I'm wanting to go into different areas rather than focus on him for days on end.

Impede on the other hand, has given me nothing to note that I could town read him for, and I do like the case Fitz has put out against Impede. Last few pages that I have been reading, his name was popping out quite a bit. His vote on Jay doesn't make any sense to me at all, I wouldn't call it opportunistic, it felt more of a let go vote. If this wagon takes off and Impede flips scum, I would 100% go back for Jay because of how that vote felt to me.

Another point I didn't quite work out, he stated that he would hide behind Momo, why would you hide behind Momo considering he had him in his town read in post #152? Why would you not hide behind Fitz, or Una who you were scum reading? I understand hiding behind your town reads would give you a better chance of living, but also confirming your reads, doesn't give anything to gamestate because you don't really confirm anything, because you could be scum lying about being the hider and the hider might not even be in the game.

Here, Kop shows up out of nowhere (holidays, I'm sure, ) and immediately sheeps Fitz. He clearly didn't want to be accused of sheeping though, so we get another meticulously crafted post and even an attempt at some original vote rationale. Problem is, the rationale is jank. The whole point of the hypoclaim in this scenario was to cover all our bases (at least that's how I understood it) so I picked a target that wasn't a hard and fast townread across the board, but who I felt wasn't scummy enough to have a reasonable chance of getting me killed. Using the hypoclaim as a basis for a vote is also really wolfy. It's purely intended as an information source if we get a Hider flip, so most town aren't going to put an excessive amount of thought into it, but the fact that he assumes that one

should

put a lot of thought into it seems to indicate that he's in a scum mindset where he has to go out of his way to choose his target carefully. This might be reaching or confbias, so feel free to shoot me down... it just doesn't sit well with me.

I understand that point on what your trying to make, but from my understanding, it would be useful if they went with there feels, rather than 'oh he's took him, I'll take someone else'. That way I can see what they are feeling and not going with the flow of the game.

I chose mine, without even looking at others, and went with what I feel I would have done if this were the real case.

I did too initially. Only checked the ongoing list when I realized what the intent was. I picked Momo BEFORE verifying that no one else did. Not that this matters. It just verifies that Kop is being very meticulous.

Quick thing, I picked fitz first and I encouraged everyone to pick different hider targets so it wouldn't draw the NK to any one person in particular.

Impede case isn't bad. It's convinced me out of a townread. Hasn't convinced me into a scumread. I see a lot of flak for his interaction with Jay, which I actually like. Seems natural to me.

How do you read Impede right now?

I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.

Maybe I'm annoyed because I'm the target of this statement, but advocating for a lynch because it's more informational rather than based on scumminess is alarming. I get that there's an unspoken subtext that "yeah you lynch someone scummy, but you should try to optimize the information you get from it", but he doesn't address the relative merits of lynching me vs lynching Jay based on scumminess, he only gets at the information we gain and then weirdly suggests that we would have to lynch Jay eventually. Possible scum setting up lynches?

Again, I don't think I want to detract from the existing wagon activity by moving my vote, but wanted to throw this out here and see if anyone thinks I'm not just excessively scumlensing.

[Impede]

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

Listen to you. You're making no cases, no effort to sort anyone. You're not voting, and you're defending whoever the majority thinks maybe good lynches w/o giving any rational reason for it nor providing an alternative.

Now I acknowledge I have seen you do this as Town too, but I'm not even getting that sinking feeling you're Town here.

Like why do you think I picked YOU as my hypothetical target if I was Hider?

This is wolfy. I could see this being town trying to pressure a scumread, but it comes off as contrived.

You know what? I've just sneezed AND coughed. I bet "now you could see it being Town catching a cold", but it would still comes off as scummy sneezing/coughing to you. Right? Right!

I didn't hear you sneeze and cough, so it's hard to say. I do hear a lot of "woof woof" though.

OK, let's play. You acknowledge 311 could be "town trying to pressure a scumread", yet you say it comes off as "contrived". Why? What points to it being deliberately manufactured rather than a natural/spontaneous response?

Hint: "Gut" is not an acceptable answer. You're already deep in with your conf!bias mode, so every gut feeling you have is simply due your presumption I will flip Scum. I want an answer that does NOT take into account any presumptions, but rather objectively addressing the content of said post. Thank you.

You basically just said "tell me how it comes off as contrived without saying that it 'comes off as' anything". The very fact that I said "comes off as" indicates that it's a tone/gut read.

To humor you though: You jump down Creature's throat for stating something that essentially amounts to a gut read. I agree that his posting is lazy af and he needs to produce actual content, but your response was overblown ("Listen to you.", "Why do you think"). That sort of predatory aggression is either scum trying to start a lynch mob, or town trying to apply pressure, but the latter doesn't jive, as you could have put him in the hotseat and forced him to be accountable for his lack of content without being opportunistically aggressive. I don't know your playstyle, so maybe this is normal for you, but it was dissonant to me.

[Impede]

Good. I'm satisfied. Welcome to the game, Jay.
UNVOTE: Jay

New vote on next reads list.

You better go back and check all the posts you made promising to do _____ on next reads list. I know of at least one off hand and I remember wanting to see it.

In other news, what on earth changed your mind? Jay is doing more of the same with his most recent posts, just coming at it from a different angle. All of his posts seem geared towards getting votes off of himself.

[Impede]

jesus christ guys stop quote-walling

i'm starting to tune out this argument

My bad. Normally I'm very liberal with snips and spoiler tags, but I'm on my lunch break, so being a bit lazy.

[Impede]

Please tell me you all see what the points Almost and I have made so far about him? He literally doesn't give a shit. This is not a town response at all.

Valid. I could say the same about all of your survival posting too, but I feel like it would be beating a dead horse.

However, are you advocating a lynch purely based on lack of content/motivation? If so, what makes you certain that this isn't just lazy/unmotivated town as opposed to lurky/smug scum?

Pedit: There aren't any scumtells in Creature's posts. Just lots of PL fodder. Again, I love a good policy lynch, but it has to be a GOOD one. Convince me that (1) Creature has a higher probability of flipping red than you and (2) Creature has a lower probability of being town-productive than you, and I will add my vote to your wagon, if for no other reason than to try and scrounge up some motivation from him.

[Impede]

And why did my vote-rationale post not get a response from you?

[Impede]

I'll offer a deal to all the townies around after I've had a good night sleep..there is a lynch we can pull off today, and not likely later!

I'm beginning to think you're being cryptic because you know people will townread you for it (like me). That's really the only benefit of doing this, and I honestly think the drawbacks of slowing the game down outweigh the gains.

Is it momo?

wtf its not momo. It's A50. He's not being cryptic anymore.

[Impede]

So momo just rocketed to the top of my town list.

ding ding ding

[Impede]

I'll have you know I was thinking of a response in a different game on site as well as putting on a music video on YouTube that I like listening too while I type.

And yeah, I keep the wiki open in an alt tab at all times to catch liars if they claim a bullshit role. No hiding that. I won't say I didn't check the wiki to be sure of no Mason because that would be a lie.

Anything Elsa?

The fact that you checked the wiki...you should have immediately denied the claim because you know your role. And I highly doubt you always keep the wiki open for a circumstance like this, especially in D1 when hardly anyone claims. When I asked if you were mason, are you telling me that town's first reaction would be to check if there was a mason in this setup? B.S.!

So you have been caught lying twice in one post. Tell me class, which faction lies when questioned, scum or town?

(P.S. I totally one-upped the class analogy with this post..Score!)

Hooooo...... wow. I am going to reread this like 30 times and then decide if momo just tricked scum into scumslipping successfully.

[Impede]

OH fair. Unless he thinks he can lynch A50 without you.

Regarding Momo vs Jay: I think if someone accused VT!Impede of being a mason I would check the wiki too. Sorry, but I don't think your little trick did anything but conftown you.

[Impede]

If I were the hider, I would hide behind Creature.

You scumread Creature at this point A50? Is that why you chose him as your target?

[Impede]

This right here makes me wonder if I should retire from mafia and quit while I'm ahead. After this game ends, be prepared for a revamped sig.

It was cool, but it didn't really do that much except cause me to make a mental note to never townread you for this type of thing ever again.

[Impede]

Obviously! He was not contributing much back then, and is still doing zilch now!

And I was only 3rd (if I recall correct) to state my hypo-target, so I literally had 80% of the playerlist up for grabs.

But these two posts were made within 5 hours of each other, during which time Creature did not post, and no discussion was had about him. How did you change from no read to scumread?

It's too early in the day for me to give up on my own reads and sheep you, Mathdino. Would you care to restate the case on Redflavor?

I'm currently working by PoE, and granted there are also mixed reads, but I have no reads on Finn, Kop, Fitz, Una & Creature, so I need them all to speak more.

If I were the hider, I would hide behind Creature.

[Impede]

you dont necessarily hide behind sr's

I just got done asking him if he hid behind Creature because of a SR and he said yes. Read.

[Impede]

... *sigh*

I've been the target of today's Lynch since page fucking one. I've said all I can, honestly, about my innocence before I had took my nap. Whether it's by scum read or policy Lynch, half of you want me dead.

But just humor me while I'm alive, okay? If I flip Vigilante, how much do you want to be sold on the scum team being Impede/Creature?

The hell? Why would you hardclaim now. Sigh.

UNVOTE:

pedit: I think this is the only way to get content out of him. Sheep!
VOTE: Assemble

[Impede]

There are so many dumb-as-hell arguments in this post that I almost don't even want to bother responding. But knowing that I'll get scumread for ignoring you again... here you go:

@momo: Jay is very likely Town to me. They're just being stubborn and overly confrontational (which is annoying somewhat, but is most certainly a TOWN trait). I also liked their reads, so I'm not really feeling scum!Jay here.

Instead, I invite you to check this out:

Wow what a snoozefest. All the theory talk isn't game-advancing at all. I know Math is posting up a readslist, so I'll do the same. This is mostly gut off of reading the past 2-3 pages.

Momo, Jay
Math, A50

Kop, Hawk

Una, Fitz
-

Everyone else is

null

for lack of content.

However, I don’t like momo’s confidence in townreading A50. Seems contrived.

These quotes are only just over 6 hours apart.

Actually they are about 18 hours and 30 minutes apart... not that it matters. I wasn't providing a change in reads with that second post. Just observing that his confidence seemed fake. I townleaned BOTH of you and continued to even after that post.

From then on he starts throwing shade on me for everything I say, pushes Jay (and votes him), shades Mathdino, agrees with Una while actively maintaining a SR on him, but never votes him, and totally ignores the discussion when I ask him how he would have had me phrase my thoughts (about Creature) w/o them sounding "overly aggressive" to him.

These are the posts where I even mention you. 170 was directed at your response to my 152 which you quoted, where I even said that it was NAI, 288 and 336 weren't even directed at you and are hardly throwing shade, and 341 is the actual post where I call you out. Didn't respond to your question about "how i would phrase it"
because it was moronic and an exercise in futility. Not going to argue for the sake of argument.

THIS IS SCUM. Una IS his partner. It's painfully obvious I am astonished others can't see the link. At least Jay agrees Impede is Scum, and both their readlists (they posted two versions) and their progression feel like Town reads/progression, plus -a I said earlier- they're being too confrontational I can hardly see them flipping Scum (only a few select players are that bold as Scum).

I was going to take a dump on this before Jay hardclaimed Vig, but no sense in it now lol

So, if Redflavor isn't promising I'm switching to Impede, because Dino obviously won't let me lynch Una first. I'm good with either Una/Impede (and YES, even before Red whom I'd be reevaluating my read on if I'm still alive by tomorrow).

VOTE: Impede

Yay for OMGUS!

P-edit: I was just thinking to myself the nex vote on Jay would come from Scum. I never saw it to be from Assemble though.

[Impede]

Was I supposed to hardclaim when I was dead? I don't know if you noticed, but I was about six hours from someone voting me up and Dino hammering.

When is it the best time to claim then?

--- Post Edit ---

Look at that, Dino answered for me.

I don't think this is true. But I guess Dino preemptively posting intent does complicate things a bit. I'd like to think that any sensible player would actually wait for hardclaims at L-1+intent, but who knows.

[Impede]

GDI! Did EVERYBODY roll Scum in this game or are you all nuts? Is this a practical joke? Am I on candid camera? Why is everybody acting as scummy as they ever could?

To explain: Both myself and Dino were on Red for ages. You waited till we BOTH switched of him to vote there??? Really??? Only NOW does Red feel Scummy to you???

Can you respond to my 438?

pedit: Jay, I was not referring to you as the one who would be sensible. I was referring to Math being sensible by giving you time to hardclaim before hammering.

[Impede]

For anyone interested, Binomial Theorem and probability shenanigans dictate that the chances for the mafia team are:

55.1%: Goon, Goon, JOAT
22.8%: Goon, JOAT, 1-shot Bus Driver
22.0%: Goon, 1-shot Bus Driver

How the f does the binomial theorem apply to this game?

[Impede]

Guys, I'm going to be really honest and say that while normally I love to do setup analysis, this is my first game in a setup this complex and I really have no idea where to even begin, so I'm going to probably excuse myself from setup-related discussions until I actually understand wtf is going on.

Math's post on VCA is superb though. Kinda obvious, but still our best play right now by far. I'll be a lot quieter probably for the rest of the night, but tomorrow I'll see if I can do some digging.

In other news, I think A50 is likely town.

[Impede]

Impede's meta is failing to respond to accusations/questions/hypotheses directed at/about him. I'm guessing you're gonna find that he didn't respond. I'm guessing he just doesn't care about discussions about him.

And yeah there's really no point in acting as if we'll later have to lynch Jay. If the moment comes, we will, but in the meantime, acting like he's conftown is the way to go.

Thanks for the Kop analysis. You also mentioned Red offhand but not your actual thoughts on his alignment. It seems like he's everyone's 2nd or 3rd scummiest candidate but his wagon is on the backburner. As per Kop's analysis, his alignment (like Jay's) is gonna be a centerpiece in VCA/associatives going forward IMO. Thoughts?

To your point. I tend to answer questions or doubts directed at me, but I find it unproductive to come to my own defense otherwise unless it’s necessary to avoid running up a ML on me.

Also, I posted a somewhat lengthy Kop ISO analysis that got mostly ignored. If you want a slightly scumlensed perspective, it might be worth a look. 361

[Impede]

@Una: IIRC A50’s post where he said he softed hider was before the hypoclaim discussion. That’s what convinced me that it was very unlikely he was making it up. Perhaps he has more exp in this sort of setup and premeditated that sort of play as scum, but idk I don’t really see Scumminess seeping from his alleged soft claim.

[Impede]

You know what? I've just sneezed AND coughed. I bet "now you could see it being Town catching a cold", but it would still comes off as scummy sneezing/coughing to you. Right? Right!

lol...a lot of his posts seem to play both sides of the fence. Could be this...but could be that? Maybe...maybe not....kind of sorta but not really.

Can we lynch Jay? Would consider Impede. Prefer Jay though.

This is my meta. It’s not fence sitting, it’s being open to the possibility of being wrong. It’s also being thorough. I take a position on which possibility I think is most likely but leave the alternative open for consideration by others

[Impede]

What in the hell?? I get home from work to three pages of content but an entire page or page and a half is garbage? Screw you guys.

I think we need a flip no matter how you slice it. No sense in even trying to plan D2 unless you’re considering not only all wagon possibilities today, but also all their possible flips. Aka: Let’s not.

My lynchpool is, in order: Assemble, Creature, Red, and I’ll just throw in Kop for good measure as he’s a bit marginal for me.

Although I can share this tidbit now: Just finished a game with Red where his posting style and level of activity was similar. He seems to be trying maybe a tad bit harder here. He was VT.

[Impede]

Going to check out Creature some more after I put the kids to bed. Shouldn’t take long lmao. If I like what I see, I’ll happily put him at L-2. Stay tuned.

[Impede]

Red is ML bait upon reread. Don’t know if he’s for sure Town, but his posting style and general demeanor is epic ML bait.

[Impede]

Why did the weird Jay wagon happen so fast beginning of the game? Is there some inside joke I’m not in on? All the votes looked like joke/RVS votes, but it just seems weird to run up the VC on a single player so fast no?
Math, Una, Fitz, Creature? Care to elaborate?

[Impede]

I’m getting there sheep.

Pedit: What?? Do we presume guilt on MS? Lol

[Impede]

Wow a page 2 hammer

Were you scum, Jay?

This is scumhunting. Easy to fake, but still.

[Impede]

Yeah I’m newbscum defending my partner THAT obviously. Give Scum!Impede a LITTLE credit please.

Pedit: but it’s still super odd that four players all decided that was a great idea independently

Pedit2: makes sense. But why Fitz and Creature?

[Impede]

It’s hardcore WIFOM territory I guess though since scum would come into the game knowing that their initial posts are probably heavily tonesetting. So I could argue easily that scum would and wouldn’t run up the VC.

Pedit: Where do I start defusing that lol. Your logic is good, but I don’t recall EVER defending Creature in any meaningful way. I was going hard on Jay while he was going after Creature, but I really had no interest in whether or not Creature was wagonned. In fact, at the time I think Jay was the only vote in him. Why would Scum!Impede expose his associations so easily? I swear I’m not a stupid player. Do endeavor to not read me like one

[Impede]

They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.

Idk, this looks towny. No reason for scum to say this. Could easily just be wishy washy or silent instead. The alternative is that one of the two are scum, but I can’t see this being actionable unless we get a red flip on creature.

Pedit: I’ve never once received a red PM, much to my dismay. I think I would wreck it

[Impede]

I thought mafia had no daytalk.

This is really easy to verify. Why would he say “I thought”? Again, either lazy town or careful scum.

[Impede]

I thought mafia had no daytalk.

In general, Creature’s play is utterly non-Town-contributory and lynch-worthy for that reason alone. A few of his posts look like they could only come from Town or heavily self-aware scum, but idk how to sort him. I have a nagging feeling we are off-base on these wagons (although I’d love an Assemble lynch) and I know that I’ll get accused of being alignment informed for saying that, but w/e. It’s just what it is. I’m ok with lynching anyone on my list, so let’s run this up and see what we come up with.

VOTE: Creature

Pedit: You’re taking my posts out of context. I never just brought him up just to bring him up. And why would I telegraph an association that hard? Scum are more likely to intentionally avoid associations unless they can get Towncred for bussing or defuse a lynch without looking like scum

Pedit2: Colors? What?

Pedit3: I responded thoroughly to Kop’s case and no one gave a crap. What do you hope to achieve with all this scumlensing Math? You must see that you are in confbias land. You’re dismissing my actual motivation IN CONTEXT for all of these posts.

[Impede]

Oops didn’t mean to quote that again.

[Impede]

Hmm...

How about yellow or purple, Impede? Either one of those?

Oh now I see what you’re asking. No lol. Never played as scum.

[Impede]

impede, is it a coincidence that math puts you in a scumpartner pool with creature and you start looking at him and voting him?
the sequence is funky to me

Are you reading at all? I said I would investigate Creature way before Math said anything about association.

[Impede]

No don’t you try to buddy me. Your analysis seems predatory to me and it’s worrisome. It would be one thing if you were at least giving me the benefit of the doubt where there’s ambiguity, but you’re just aiming for the throat. If you wanted my reaction, here it is. If you actually want to scumread me, then hopefully someone looks at the offchance of Scum!Dino

[Impede]

Yeah cause Scum!Impede has no idea that OMGUS is a scumtell. Zzz.

More in the morning. Need a break.

[Impede]

@Kop:
Why would I be guilty of OMGUS after calling out Jay for it in like 5 separate posts?
I DID explain my vote rationale in response to Jay asking about it. Are you willfully ignoring this?
I didn’t say sheep because I was sheeping, I said it to get OTHERS to sheep me.
Are you this inept??? He accuses me of bussing/defending Creature at various points, so then I proceed to pay. MORE attention to Creature and VOTE HIM?! How the hell can you perceive this as an attempt at getting attention off of myself?!
You’re not getting anymore rationale than I’ve already given you (lots). If you have a specific question, I’m happy to entertain you, but this entire line of thought is utterly ill-conceived and I resent it heavily enough that I’d rather see you be wrong than try to change your mind.
Wagon me if you want. I’ll make an effort to ignore your inane rationale and go on with scumhunting.
I recognize that bringing up the Scum!Kop and Scum!Math potential LOOKS LIKE OMGUS. But your rationale looks so bullshitty to me and NO ONE ELSE is calling it out, so wtf am I supposed to do, just take a lynch? Very well. That’s what I’ll do going forward.

[Impede]

Dealing with a family crisis for most of today. I have a lot to say. Expect me to come back to this tonight slightly less pissed off and irrational about the case(s) on me.

The one thing that occurs to me to say regarding my initial scumread of Una is: I played a newbie with him very recently where he was a VT and got D1 mislynched after acting super towny and (tbh) super strangely. His behavior in this game is black and white. Utterly black and white. Like not even close. So I went into the game with a meta scumread on him, basically guilty until proven innocent. Feeling a lot better about him now, even townleaning. Just wanted to make sure that this didn’t go unexplained.

[Impede]

Yeah. Mixed up some of my games. Sorry about that all.

[Impede]

Updated sorting:

Momo, Jay
Math, A50, Una, Hawk

Fitz, Sheep

Kop, Red
Assembleslot, Creature

Obviously will be interesting to see what happens after we get a replace-in for Assemble.

I can’t keep track of the case on me or if there even is one, so if you guys have questions, let me know. Otherwise I’ll respond to things as they ping me.

[Impede]

I mean he has 4 active games that he’s replaced out of lol.

[Impede]

Wtf I made a fair number of those same points in my OWN defense when I line-by-lined A50’s case on me. I seriously think no one reads. Or maybe no one reads self-defense posts by someone they are confbiasing.

I don’t want to screw up the wagon on Creature, but I really want to hear what Assemble’s replace-in thinks. I say we use the rest of today to milk as much content out of them as possible.

[Impede]

Oh thank God. I thought for sure I was gonna get shot but didn’t want to say anything to put scum on the trail.

[Impede]

Well they'll have to guess which of the two/three I'm gonna shoot if that's the case. And I'm good at rock-paper-scissors so I think I'll win.

You're missing my point. I said if there was ONE of the three.. they don't care if you shoot the other two, obviously. It would -at least- have the potential of flipping a TPR, and even if not that's one less slot to worry about when they plan for their own shots in the future.

OK.. I'll shut up. Do as you will... it's only a game after all and is supposed to be fun.

Check this out. The vigpool suggestion pinged me but I didn’t really think about it. This makes it an actual really dicey move and even potentially scum motivated. Food for thought.

[Impede]

It's interesting to me that anyone who reads Impede's ISO immediately starts scumreading him, while anyone who actually pores over Impede in context nullreads him.

This is interesting to me as well. I didn’t think I sound scummy in general, but I always get scumread by lazy players.

[Impede]

Well hell, I’ll hide behind A50.

[Impede]

Also happy birthday Jay! Hope it’s been a solid one.

[Impede]

It's interesting to me that anyone who reads Impede's ISO immediately starts scumreading him, while anyone who actually pores over Impede in context nullreads him.

This is interesting to me as well. I didn’t think I sound scummy in general, but I always get scumread by lazy players.

Maybe it would make you reconsider your reads being based on how people interact with you?

Maybe.

[Impede]

Math feels like a town leader type scum

I fear this tbh. I can’t help but townlean Math, but it’s worrisome for that fact alone. Worthless speculation until we get some flips tho.

[Impede]

I know that vca is shit but the huge delay on creature's lynch indicates scum...if he was town, scum would have pushed it through

Yeah I HIGHLY doubt we have all scum on the Creature wagon for this reason.

[Impede]

Yeah I HIGHLY doubt we have all scum on the Creature wagon for this reason.

EBWOP: Nvm, I thought about this for 10 more seconds and WIFOMed myself out of it making sense. Scum wouldn’t want to string up town either. Especially not in an L-1 or Hammer position.

[Impede]

I'm townreading everyone on the wagon. If he's scum I'd expect more bussing in this situation.

WIFOM central, but this seems correct and is more or less why I edited my previous post. Are we to then infer that we are MLing?

[Impede]

No. I’m not going to tread that WIFOM minefield. Can’t presume to know what scum is thinking/doing here, esp with actions as public as voting/not voting the wagon that is our most likely lynch.

Hammer plz.

[Impede]

VOTE: Mathdino

Off to sleep.
Told you he was the town scum leader.

i like that popin

Dumb. Dumb af. Math may as well be conftown. What’s your case?

[Impede]

VOTE: Mathdino

Off to sleep.
Told you he was the town scum leader.

i like that popin

That popin was eh.... Assemble looked bad... Screenplay didn't look better... But I will admit Dino has felt very awkward since the hammer, and I was expecting him to be dead...

Pedit: I'm probably going to sleep soon as well I got work in the AM and it's 11 here.

If I’m Scum PR-hunting, I don’t touch Math. He’s hardcore towning. Not exactly PR trying to lay low.

[Impede]

pagetop

Dude, you really need to stop.

[Impede]

scum!dino is obviously the most original thought that stands out

essentially it's the "screen catches up like i do as town" part that makes me tr him

Weak. Where's your case? Where's your readslist? Where's your town contribution? Why aren't you ever concerned with convincing others that your take on the gamestate is the correct take?

i havent actually looked into impede

i havent actually looked into this game tbqh

So explain to me why this doesn't make you PL candidate #1 right now?

im psure creature plays like this at as either alignment with these popins and popouts
i dont recall his popins being wolfy popins; im more in favor of red or assemble lynches

And this crap.

Even when you felt OK about lynching Creature (allegedly) your vote never went there. In fact the only time you used your vote in a meaningful way was on me and you were just mega-sheeping Dino. You said you would hammer if we got to deadline, but who knows if that was true. You did say you wouldn't hammer without a claim, but Creature was pretty damn obvious that he wasn't going to claim at all. Why didn't you hammer then?

You also post a fake-looking reaction anytime there's a vote around L-1. This has happened 3 or 4 times this game alone where someone fakehammers or revotes for no reason. Why do you react every time? Why is your first instinct to post a reaction rather than just taking 10 seconds to actually count the votes yourself? I can see it the first time... but reacting the same way the second AND third times as well? 723 and 824 for reference.

We gon' lynch this today folks.

VOTE: Sheep

[Impede]

Also, in a very friendly way, screw you A50 for thinking that Jay breadcrumbed vig at all.

Or screw Jay for breadcrumbing vig as a VT in the first place?

Upon reflection (and I'm just assuming vig doesn't exist now because they didn't cc Jay), the most likely scenario is that mafia killed Jay and SK killed A50. Reason being that SK has a 1-shot BP and vig hanging around is much more likely to hurt mafia. Mafia on the other hand is actively afraid of vig. Especially after we have him leashed.

Also doctor doesn't exist because doctor would be on Jay. I might write up a few calculations on the mafia team distribution as a result of that. My hope is that Tracker is our only PR so we only have 1 more mafia to catch.

The most obvious culprit of A50's kill would be Una. I would be willing to examine Una's play from the perspective of SK hunting. Not yet but later. For now, my townread stands.

The second most obvious A50 killer would honestly be me, because A50's flip would stop people suggesting Math/A50, and it would leave me as one of few town leader types left.

So then it stands to reason that, because I believe Una and I are both town, the SK did the kill either
A. To frame one of us.
or
B. Because they were afraid of A50 later on.
or
C. Both.

I'm beginning to realise why I hate NKA. I'll analyse A50's ISO for signs at some point.

I did look for a breadcrumb in A50's ISO and I found nothing. One of these days I'm going to start looking out for that as town. If anyone finds a breadcrumb, my entire NKA is bunk.

Wait, why can't we be in KKK or KKKK? Then we'd have 2 vig and there would be no reason for a CC or for the Vig to shoot Jay for fakeclaiming. What am I missing?

[Impede]

okay that also clears fitz

the question is do i believe that both mafia would be this lazy in their PR hunting

i'm amazing at PR hunting so i know i wouldn't but i legit don't know what people do as mafia without me

hmmmmmmmm

Okay so if I include all 3 of you in my townbloc that makes {me, Una, Hawk, fitz, momo} with outside nulltowner {Impede}. Creates a lynchpool of 4. {Kop, sheep, Screen, RedFlavor}.

Not satisfactory yet but this is actually a great start.

If anyone thinks that BOTH mafia are in {Una, Hawk, fitz} please say something

Just read this critically. I'm sheeping your lynch pool. Sorry. You're 100% correct though.

[Impede]

Impede, you're probably town, but ya gotta answer my question last page before you go off into policy lynch territory.

D2 post-flip policy lynch is a bad idea. He's in my lynchpool because I think he's the token Creature-busser. But I haven't even delved into that yet. If you think he's scum, you're welcome to do so.

I was just about to ask what you thought of my Kop case but then I realised I forgot to do the Kop case. I'll do that today.

Edit: I specifically asked all K roles to claim just in case that was the lineup. It's incredibly unlikely though. Like you have no idea how unlikely.

Meh. I like PLs. A LOT. I feel like they catch scum with a 60% clip at least. Maybe 70%. I have zero data to back this up.

I wasn't really suggesting a true "PL" on sheep. I think he's scummy. But I also think that his behavior is anti-town enough to make me not feel that bad about a ML on him. I made a bit of a case on him, including the idea that he was Creature bussing.

I had a Kop case that at least covers some portion of D1. I haven't seen much to convince me to change that scumlean, although I need to ISO him, as I haven't since that post. (361 for reference). After rereading it, it's fairly tone-based, but I'm moderately convinced that scum truly do tend to be more consistently meticulous with their posting than town. I'll ISO him again.

[Impede]

Dumb. Dumb af.

Math may as well be conftown

. What’s your case?

WAIT NOPE DONT DO THIS TO ME DUDE I DONT WANNA GET PARANOID ABOUT YOU

explain this

if it's literally just because you townread me that doesn't make me conftown

also give me a scumteam

Edit: are you rolefishing me now what

Well, you prompted me to justify this. I ISOed you and I feel less good now. I had it in my head that you were pushing for the Creature lynch, but you really weren't. You actually waffled on it SUPER hard, even right up until the end. I still can't get over how excessively towny you are though, but I'm convinced you do this as scum as well. Regardless, no Dino in the lynchpool today. I think we need another day of content and another flip to better understand where you're at.

[Impede]

B.S. and you know it....me and dino hardly interact like buddies.

1.) No body would so blatantly town read the other like we (or at least I am doing)
2.) What kind of scum team has two players who led the lynch on their third member..and not just led...pushed it through. (A lynch you were opposed to for no apparent reason...don't think that I missed that).
3.) We're both trying to help town as much as we can, pushing content, reads, and DOING ORIGINAL SCUMHUNTING...which is more than you are I believe...

I don't think you're scum or buddies, but I have to point out that you just WIFOMed yourself out of any of these statements being true.

[Impede]

The only thing about momo on me that I can see make sense is my impede Vote.
The rest is just bs.
You can’t assume what you do on replace in is what everyone else does.
I replace into all my games the same way. Start playing from then on taking advice as needed. Isoing when someone catches my eye.
I asked Dino for personal thoughts not because I’m following them. I asked so I can see thought process and reasoning. Wanted to see if they were bs’ing their thoughts. Didn’t want to confirm bias and thought it my be away for me to get a fresh look.
In conclusion it feels like momo is defending a buddy.

I have to agree that momo's case is a trashcan. I think there are reasons one might scumread Screen (probably valid ones tbh [whattup lynchpool?!?!?!]), but the only one in your post that makes sense is exactly the one he points out here. The vote on me and the associated rationale.

Momo is definitely not defending a buddy though. That's freaking ludicrous. I think he legitimately finds you scummy and is ISOing to justify.

[Impede]

Oh jeez. My pronouns are anything but consistent in that post... here, have an EBWOP:

The only thing about momo on me that I can see make sense is my impede Vote.
The rest is just bs.
You can’t assume what you do on replace in is what everyone else does.
I replace into all my games the same way. Start playing from then on taking advice as needed. Isoing when someone catches my eye.
I asked Dino for personal thoughts not because I’m following them. I asked so I can see thought process and reasoning. Wanted to see if they were bs’ing their thoughts. Didn’t want to confirm bias and thought it my be away for me to get a fresh look.
In conclusion it feels like momo is defending a buddy.

I have to agree that momo's case is a trashcan. I think there are reasons one might scumread Screen (probably valid ones tbh [whattup lynchpool?!?!?!]), but the only one in momo's post that makes sense is exactly the one Screen points out here. The vote on me and the associated rationale.

Momo is definitely not defending a buddy though. That's freaking ludicrous. I think he legitimately finds Screen scummy and is ISOing to justify.

[Impede]

Impede you literally make the same exact kinds of arguments as to why you're not scum, kindly fuck off

Yeah, but at least I say that they are WIFOM-laden and therefore invalid as of the moment I author them.

[Impede]

I really don't want to do this, but I really want an answer on this...

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

[Impede]

This right here makes me wonder if I should retire from mafia and quit while I'm ahead. After this game ends, be prepared for a revamped sig.

It was cool, but it didn't really do that much except cause me to make a mental note to never townread you for this type of thing ever again.

This was a long time ago but do you remember what you mean by it impede?

Whenever you tell someone you townread them for something, you inherently make it harder to townread them for that same thing in the future, because they know it will result on a townread and can use it on purpose as scum. The fact that multiple people townread him for his little trick and he was gloating over it make it utterly null for me in future games.

[Impede]

SK only occurs on odd playercount.

How do you know we have an SK?

[Impede]

So like. We probably have 3 Ts and 4 PRs.

We can’t be in TTT because there’s no bus driver in that setup.

Come on Math.

[Impede]

Edit: WOW WHAT A GREAT IDEA ITS NOT LIKE I THOUGHT OF THAT ALREADY

Lol you love Screen.

[Impede]

You it’s a forced town tell to you?
Am I reading that right?

Not sure what your question is.

Look at the actual context. Momo tried to pull a little trick to catch Jay scumming. It was so convoluted and scumhunty that it was a hard townread.

Now that he knows that type of behavior will bet him a TR, it’s something he’s liable to do as scum in future games, so that’s why I said I won’t ever TR him for that again.

[Impede]

How the hell do we know there's an SK!??!?!?!?!?! No one has answered this for me. FFS

[Impede]

You guys are dismissing 2T and 6T like they are foregone conclusions, but I don't see what makes them impossible. Seems to me like everyone has decided there is a SK, but we don't know that, could be a Vig.

[Impede]

Not Vig.

Yeah. Seems highly unlikely that we have a Vig, but still possible. The other one wouldn’t have counterclaimed necessarily because of the(slight) possibility of 3K or 4K which have 2

[Impede]

With Math saying he was holding intent for hammer ironically.

This is an objectively correct interpretation of my actions and I am glad that I am being recognised for my pure irony

I'm more interested in Sheep because he was off Creatures wagon kinda but held hammer waiting for a claim. He even mentioned he thought Red if they were scum would have waited for a claim which kinda was what sheep was doing end if d1.

Doesn't add up.

1. He was entirely on the Creature wagon. He moved off to sheep me when I started up the Impede wagon again. After that he wanted to wait for Creature's last will/defence/claim which I think is consistent with sheep's general thought process/meta.

2. Scum doesn't often call people scum for doing the exact things they're doing. Hypocrisy is not a scumtell.

Honestly the best evidence against sheep is that he took the bait and went after Impede when I and A50 made a shitty case on Imp. Is attributable to laziness. And like, I'm

somewhat

okay with pressuring him to do stuff for us, but I don't think votes are quite the way to go to do that. Just threaten him or push him around or something. (although, caveat, if sheep is your primary scumread and you are not voting, please seriously vote, people)

Would you do me the honor of a rebuttal to my sheepcase? No one really responded substantially.

[Impede]

@Math: Why bring up the Newbie game? And my dead thread post? I said everything I wanted to about Una from a meta perspective, and I’d still NK the f out of you. You have my permission to use this as a scumtell if for no other reason than I want to see you hilariously try to explain to everyone in a game that if you get NKed then people should look for Scum!Impede because threats. Lol

[Impede]

Right now, I wanna focus on the screen lynch and see what we get from that

You will get a dead town.
What do you get from that?

Why say this? How does this help anyone?

[Impede]

i openly admit to having skimmed all of ag's walls for like 3 seconds
but i dont really like how she's just put out 2 readlists and basically she's just summarizing stuff or asking questions
like it definitely doesnt feel like it's posted with the intention of finding scum

How can you possibly know this without reading it?

[Impede]

And on a final note, if we assume no vengefuls on the basis that no one counterclaimed Jay (if people still argue with me on this I'm gonna call for vengeful claim):
IIHRPPT
IIHPPPT
IIRPPPT
IIPPPPT
IHRPPPT
IHPPPPT
IRPPPPT
IPPPPPT

All of which are highly unlikely and force the existence of many docs/JKs.

Edit: Sheep, are you one of the 3?

Why the deuce would anyone counterclaim him?! You keep saying this but the odds of being in KK are not low AT ALL (21%). Like what? Why the hell would a Vengeful ESPECIALLY counterclaim on a 21% chance that their claim results in NOT ONE, but TWO MLs. Your logic is weird.

[Impede]

inb4 Sheep/Math scumteam

[Impede]

No.

This feels like a genuine attempt at gamebreaking right now, but what does it change if we know that we have 1 vs 2 remaining maf? What are you going to do differently?

[Impede]

Lol this is gonna be fun.

I used 3/20 instead of 1/10. Whoops. Still...

[Impede]

@Kop - Here's my case on momo.

momo - His early statement that he doesn't believe in town reads was ironic given that he handed a few of those out throughout D1. 683 and 717 are hedgy. Momo claims (683) that both Impede and Creature are scum, but says that Impede should be lynched first because of "more info" but doesn't explain what sort of information we could gain.

Momo says this again and again but never explains what sort of information we'd gain. At a later point when Impede's wagon is loosing traction, Momo undermines his statements on Scum!Impede saying that Impede is not the scummiest lynch candidate. Instead, favoring a Creature wagon saying that "he has more content than redflavor in the effort to make himself appear towny, but is scummy" (717). He undermines this again in 729 when he address that "While I think both - (Creature & Impede) - are scummy ... i think impede flip, no matter what it is, provides more information which we could use right now" with no mention of RedFlavor at all

Yeah this is weird. I think it’s Town!Momo inconsistency though. Scum should be more concerned about flip flopping like this. Momo is fairly careless and unmethodical in his approach, which I think is a towntell and also the cause of what you are interpreting as scummy behavior.

I think recent posting by Momo is more likely to yield scumtells if you are looking for them. Dude is very likely going to show more inconsistency in transitioning from complacency after being widely TRed to defending himself against a building wagon.

[Impede]

Independent of 1228, 1260, and 1348, I'm going to take a look at the Dino Defense of Impede and everyone who was "gunning" for an Impede lynch. I would like to check the 'where' and 'when' in which the currently living people who were convinced that Impede was scum "conceded" to your argument i.e. Momo, Sheep, Kop, and fitz. I think Kop was the last one to say something out of all the rest, but I need to check this.

PEdit:

Thanks for sharing that Dino.

This kind of seals the deal on Town!AG for me. Nice posting lately. Very aggressive scumhunting. Not reachy or fabricated at all. Looks like excellent townplay to me. Well done if you’re town. Extremely well done if you’re scum.

[Impede]

sheep if playing badly and not being at all persuasive is a scumtell you're at the top of my scumlist

L
M
A
O

[Impede]

Im going back and reevaluating.
If we are 1 and 1 associations is a little harder.
Obviously momo and Dino wouldn’t be a team.
So I’m taking a step back.

So new Poe is una kop hawk.
Somewhat fitz

What the.... did you use RNG to come up with this list? Wth.... explain.

[Impede]

Implication: UnaBombaH is SK.

I really don't think so. I think Una is potential maf, but not SK. Regardless, you've convinced me to consider Una as possible scum. I have some ISOs to do to solidify this. Will try to make time today.

[Impede]

Wasn’t it said scum don’t have day talk?
It looks to me like a buddy giving a subtle pep talk message.

Yup. I remember thinking this at the time.

[Impede]

Considering Kop's most recent post - 1460 - was made with the intention to

prevent

a potential hammer... The idea that Kop is scum has kinda fell flat in my mind. Still working on compiling that timeline while multitasking.

UNVOTE: Kop

Scum would almost certainly do this if they knew someone would flip Town. Although this type of behavior is more likely from an EARLY wagon participant than someone who just hops on and then just hops off after realizing it's L-1, it's still NAI I think.

[Impede]

@Impede

Why is Una potentially not the SNK in your mind?

Stay tuned on this. I'm REALLY slowly catching up all day today on this thread because you guys post an F-ton.

[Impede]

what toxic attitude...

Telling people to fuckoff as a defence doesn't do anything to the gamestate.

And doesn't make people scum read you any less.

I actually scumread him less for this haha. Cornered scum about to blow their win condition don't really act like this. Maybe Scum!MiddleSchool!Sheep does though?

[Impede]

that moves me from towniest in the group of likely not scum to a reasonable lynch

then his only decent point is i was on the wagons with potential
not all of them momo i hadnt hopped on screen and i sort of made it clear i wasnt planning to before you said that

Punctuation please. I literally can't read most of your posts.

[Impede]

Creating a record of all the times that people mention 2 mafi, 3 mafi, SK, or no SK.

Utterly non-game-related: Someone get her a medal please. Ghost is going to make my list of players I really want to play with again.

[Impede]

Why would Una tunnel A50 and then NK him as SK? It's too easy. I have to believe someone wanted to draw attention towards Una, or at a minimum, avoid attention on themselves.

[Impede]

Impede, you didn't answer my question earlier (when you were online too, lol)

Talk to me about our different lynch options for today.

I'm online almost all day at work FYI. I keep a browser window dedicated to MS. Doesn't mean I'm paying attention to anything or active. More likely the opposite.

I am strapped for time and feel like my opinion is being colored a lot right now, so I need to do some ISOs to refresh.

However, since you asked:

Easier to start with players I am townblocking: Ghost, Math, Fitz
Players I'm not convinced are Town, but I wouldn't lynch today without convincing (by myself or others): Srceen, Una, Momo, Hawk
Which brings me to:

Sheep

- I really like the Sheep lynch in general (I started it, the rest of you are all posers), but I have pause about his reaction to being at L-2/L-1. Seems towny to me, but I have a REALLY hard time reading sheep (both literally and figuratively). I'm irritated enough with him that I won't move my vote unless I feel like he has a sub-33% chance of flipping scum or the wagon dies off.

Kop

- I've never felt good about Kop this entire game. His behavior around the sheep wagon feels overly methodical and suddenly interested. The "townslip" if you want to call it that by voting Red seems really odd to me... I have a hard time convincing myself it was on purpose, but I also can't convince myself that it came from town.

Feel free to disregard all of that. I really need to develop some interaction-based reads by ISOing a few folks with Creature and also looking for SK motivation. I'll get to it, just not sure it'll be today.

[Impede]

Worth noting that post doesn't consider SK possibilities very well if at all. I have no idea how to hunt for 3rd party scum, and a lot of the genuine scumhunting I throw people in my townblock for could easily come from an SK. Need to rethink things from a different perspective and maybe try to come up with a SK readslist.

[Impede]

This thought just occurred to me... if an SK is genuinely scumhunting, one would expect them to be honest about their reads, yes? They have nothing to hide, no one to protect, they want to lynch maf. If we look at A50 as an SK kill (seems highly likely), I think there's a decent chance the SK actually thought A50 was scum. This is especially true of a N1 NK, as they would be less concerned with people SK-hunting, and even if they were cornered based on their reads, they could easily WIFOM their way out of it.

This means a few observations are probably true:
1) The SK would have most likely been present on the Creature wagon unless genuinely convinced he wasn't maf.
2) The SK would have to be decently convinced on scum!A50 -AND- been convinced that they couldn't get town to lynch him (why waste an NK on a foregone conclusion?)

Now, forgive me for probably being stupid and redundant, but this forces me to retract my point on Una earlier. This makes Una seem quite sus if you accept this logic.

I think SK is all but guaranteed to be in a slot that isn't highly polarizing, and probably especially likely to be flying under the radar with some genuine scumhunting thrown in. Candidates: Hawk, Kop, Ghost, Una. Added candidate because paranoia: Math

Willing to remove Hawk, as I think there's no way he would've shot A50.
Kop seemed to suspect A50, not a top scumread, but still... and A50 was his hider target... Plausible.
Red/Ghost seems plausible based on both Red's behavior, and Ghost's. Although that D1 hammer was a bit ballsy for an SK.
Una is far and away the most likely I think.

[Impede]

Wait eff... Una wasn't on the Creature wagon. But he seems to have believed that Creature was genuinely town, so that might be OK. Also, makes the lynch slightly more appealing because there's some interesting Creature/Una associatives.

pedit: ffs... so I know nothing about optimal SK play. Disregard all of this.

[Impede]

I think the Una/Creature scumteam makes sense. Idk wtf the rest of you are on about saying that it's impossible. I see lots of a little nuggets in their ISOs. 278, 316, 745, 1352, 952

[Impede]

RIP! Sad! Take care Ghost!

Pedit: Agreed. Hope her replace is half as useful.

[Impede]

Welcome Gamma. Sorry for the massive catchup. Blame Sheep. Feel free to ask questions.

[Impede]

Rolecop: Is basically our test for serial killer cuz mafia only has a goon left. Hopefully said something.

I don't think Role Cop gets a meaningful result on SK. I think SK investigates as Vanilla.

[Impede]

I don't think Role Cop gets a meaningful result on SK. I think SK investigates as Vanilla.

Nvm, I'm dumb af. SK has abilities.

[Impede]

@Impede....why are you ruling Una out as a potential SK?

Not really ruling out, but if he was being genuine in his push on A50, then one would expect him to save that kill for later in the game rather than risk shooting maf on D1 (as Math kindly clarified)

[Impede]

Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible.

Unless I’m dumb, this is false. This is the reason that 7T is impossible.

[Impede]

Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible. Meaning vigi claim would firmly cement us into 2t I think. while no Vigi claim puts us into 1t or 5t because there were 2 NK.

This is contingent on no JK. If there’s a JK, there’s an offchance that one of the kills got roleblocked and we could have Vig and SK.

[Impede]

yeah that meta is all old and sour as hell

have fun i guess

You better run, you better do what you can
Don't want to see no blood, don't be a macho man
You want to be tough, better do what you can
So lynch it, but you want to be bad
Just lynch it, lynch it, lynch it, lynch it
No one wants to be defeated
Showin' how funky and strong is your fight
It doesn't matter who's wrong or right
Just lynch it, lynch it
Just lynch it, lynch it

[Impede]

6/10

Your mafia gameplay is 6/10 ho

[Impede]

Moon logic regarding Math-SK keeping Una-mafia alive also indicates town.

Holy crap. That's entirely an unexpected flip. Props to Ghost.

Are you conftowning yourself?!?!

[Impede]

VOTE: Kop

L-2

This makes sense for today.

pedit: You said something in your previous post about SK!Math not shooting Maf!Una or something?! Idk wtf you were getting at.

[Impede]

I swear to god impede if you're SK and we lose to this I'm policy lynching you d1 every game we play from now until the end of time.

Lolll.

I was ACTUALLY trying to SK-hunt with that post. Of course I'd say this as SK, so not sure why you (Math) are even asking me, haha.

I like Math's take on Kop, but I don't feel ready to rule him out. I'll do my own ISO at some point.

UNVOTE: for now

I'll volunteer to look at fitz more closely. I've looked at Una's ISO too much and would rather trust my opinion from yesterday (that SK!Una is possible) until proven otherwise.

[Impede]

- People who might've felt threatened by A50 and Ghostslot.

Think about this for a sec. Ghost was replaced. No one would kill her based on what she said. It would be based on suspecting her as a PR. And I can’t get out of A50 WIFOM. Really hard to discern real SK motive in that kill.

[Impede]

ISOed A50. I’m the only one who obviously stood to gain from his lynch. Maybe the Assembleslot? Although he had mutual beef with Una. If I introduce WIFOM, Math has the best alibi since they were buddies and mutual TRs. Stupid N1 kill for him tho by that logic.

Pedit: Plausible.

I feel good with this PoE:
Not today: Math, Hawk
Maybe: Una, Kop
Probably: Fitz, Srceen

[Impede]

Fitz talked about SK more than almost anyone. He was a little bit lynch open. Never opposed a lynch. Very lurky. Never pushed too hard. Quite amiable. He also made a point of trying to not rule out the TT setup

. Thoughts?

VOTE: fitz

[Impede]

Math has the best alibi since they were buddies and mutual TRs. Stupid N1 kill for him tho by that logic.

Um not stupid at all.
If you see someone actively solving the game and you declared a town read on them the most logical thing to assume is you have to NK them.

Fair.

I’ll put together my take on Srceen and Kop.

[Impede]

TBH the fact that I'm still alive implicates Impede more than anyone.

Going solely on that fact, leaving me alive helps, in order:
Impede: has me pocketed
Una: needs me alive to have scumreads left
Hawk
fitz
Screenplay only if he thought he could lynch me, stupid otherwise
Kop

Yeah feelsbad lol. Idk how you guys haven’t rallied to my lynch yet. I’d lynch me at this point. The only rebuttal I have is that I look too much like the SK to be the SK. But Occam’s Razor etc. Idk. Ask me stuff. I’ll justify my reads in the meantime

[Impede]

Srceen literally ONLY throws shade. He’s setting up his wagon on Math tomorrow. I don’t see any reason to clear him. At all. Do you?

Sorry for the lazy cases. On my iPad. Watching Netflix. Lol. If you want me to elaborate say so, and I’ll do it tmrw.

[Impede]

2 lynches to LYLO, need to hear from Kop, Una, Fitz. Srceen is here but I feel like idk your take on things...

[Impede]

Mathdino, Impede and hawk are the ones I'm going to reread and quote the most.

This is super added-value actually. It's the polar opposite of my SK-pool, so you'll either confirm my townblock or force us to reevaluate.

[Impede]

We could still have Hider, Vengeful, Role Cop, or Doctor though right? Can't we use Hider and Role Cop to conftown enough people that the game is a guaranteed win (provided they don't die)?

TTTTTXS

Even with no conftowns currently (not even a possibility), a pseudo-investigative PR could:
D4: 5 players remaining, 2 conftown (we should do hypoclaims today so that we don't lose this)
D5 LYLO: 3 players remaining, 2 conftown (no matter what we either have 2 conftowns or 1 conf-SK if PR advertises their night target D4)

This is probably not the case though, as I think we would've seen a claim by now? So I guess we are more likely than not going to have to get lucky with Doc or Veng.

[Impede]

Also, I hate Fitz's entire self-defense post. Not moving my vote unless someone pulls out an amazing Town!Fitz case. I think I'm confbiasing, but whatever. Trusting my gut.

[Impede]

I might be the RC and I have an inno on Kop.

[Impede]

- I've played in such a dominating way that gets me shot by mafia or checked by a PR. (counterpoint: powerwolfing strat OP)
- I've lowkey requested that the PR target me on multiple occasions (counterpoint: WIFOM)
- I've directly asked for protection from JK (counterpoint: Math wanted to pretend that he was saved by JK and JK didn't actually target him)
- My levels of scumhunting make it less likely for SK to win in the end (counterpoint: Math felt he could win in a game of just him and townies)
- I've hard-defended multiple people (momo and A50 especially) from getting lynched when SK theoretically shouldn't care (counterpoint: buddying)
- I tried to break the game when I thought it was possible to given tons of PRs (counterpoint: I betted on 5T and won)

Just want to resurrect this. I think the most compelling points here are (1) and (3). (1) goes away if we assume 1SBP!SK!Math I think.

Point (3) is interesting. IIRC, this was done after we had done a fair amount of setup-narrowing, which means the actual mathematical odds of having a JK would be pretty low (something around or less than 25%). Add this to the fact that there's been no indication thus far of roleblocking or protection, this becomes even less likely. Compound this with the fact that your average PR is not terribly likely to just follow the will of another player. I think it's possible this was done more as a self-preservation tactic since Math was paranoid of his own death by scum? Scum would definitely not want to waste an NK on a potentially protected target. Even if SK!Math had his NK blocked, it could be chalked up to any number of other PR-related action-tampering or blamed on a no-kill gambit or something along those lines. Idk, maybe this is reachy.

tl;dr: I'm paranoid of SK!Math still. I think if all else fails, he's a good choice in LYLO.


pedit: Maybe I got the Kop inno last night. Maybe I'm trying not to out myself as the PR by not advertising an out-of-nowhere hard TR on Kop?

[Impede]

Impede obviously not RC and needs to be lynched.

You haven't even put together a real case. Your quote wall was IIoA. If I'm going to have a chance of avoiding the ML here, at least give me something to rebut.

pedit: How do they do that? They have no credible information without scumclaiming lol. Maybe though, cause if they hardcore push your lynch it would give them ammo for a PR claim.

[Impede]

there's little chance of me being NK'd in the future.

Perhaps you have some insider info?

[Impede]

I know I get lynched before LYLO. Whatever. Just don't want to conftown someone just because they ran themselves out of lynch options. It's stupidly simple to find something trivial in someone's ISO and cling to it as a scumtell and change your read.

No one is conftown in LYLO unless they are a claimed PR from D4(!!!!!) or investigated as innocent.

[Impede]

ugh I didn't think 6v1 would be this stressful...

i know right? actually have to read people haha.

[Impede]

Meh. Let's do Fitz today. We can do me tomorrow if we must.

[Impede]

I don’t even know how to post reads for this lol. Forget third party scum imo.

These are mostly gut reads and sheeping. I don’t have the time or interest to go crazy evaluating each and every player left in this game.

Least likely to most:
Hawk
Una
Math
Kop
Srceen
Fitz

[Impede]

Also if there are 2 NKs tomorrow, I will change my avatar from my dog eating a bone to my dog eating the meat off of my mangled corpse because I will have died of shock and confusion.

[Impede]

Meh. Fitz’s defense is still bad. Lynch.

[Impede]

He and I are both L-2 by my count.

[Impede]

Fitz. We can’t not lynch you. If not today, eventually. Probably true for me as well unfortunately. Just state your reads so we can use it if you flip town.

[Impede]

Even though my faction didn't win, it was such an achievement to go from scummiest slot to towniest!

Because I was obviously doing something right to be getting town read from an almost impossible situation.

You were outstanding tbh. My earlier comment still stands. Would be delighted to play with you again.

And for that matter everyone in this game. Outstanding job all!

[Impede]

@Mathdino: YOU ROCK, my friend.

Yup. This.

Wish we would've seen more A50 play this game. RIP. Great job though!

[Impede]

Can we also just recognize how good some of those night actions were?

Kop played his role quite well imo.

[Impede]

I definitely think JK9++ in general is scum-sided, as evidenced by town's win rate on the wiki page.

I thought the town win in this setup could be attributed to several factors, several town members played a solid town game, the inactivity of both mafia members, and the (un?)fortunate sk kill on a mafia slot

Yeah. We were at an advantage to begin with I think. And a little luck with that SK kill doesn't hurt.

I think it's hilarious that Ghost towned it up so hard that she got her slot killed by SK.

[Impede]

Called Creature+RedFlavor D1

I can’t believe our D1 wagons both hit scum. Like wut

Also, second (third? fourth?) that Math is MVP

[Impede]

Math...you're a weird mix of "I somewhat enjoy playing with you" and "you're too full of yourself + condescendingly fcuk off annoying."

inb4 the beginning of a beautiful friendship