Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over

[MathBlade]

Read the first few pages seems like just RVS.

Someone want to tell me why there is a wagon on cytheflyguy?

Standard Unvote UNVOTE:

[MathBlade]

Mathblade, to be clearer, these were the lovers at the start of the game:

Mathblade (Amrochora) - Toranaga
sheepsaysmeep (jzhenson) - Mathdino (pisskop)
momo (BigFinn) - Kop
RedFlavor - hyung (manrock)
cytheflyguy - Lalendra
Diamond - Sky

Originals are in parentheses.

Uhmmm originals? I just got a PM with my lover link.

Wtf?

[MathBlade]

Isn’t that like against site rules?

[MathBlade]

Who was in the PT originally? Like, your PT doesn't have your name in it because you're a replacement.

I need to confer with the mod about something something doesn’t add up.

[MathBlade]

I'm lovers with MisaTange. Most of us have claimed already.

Can you at least summarise your lover's posts if you don't want to claim lovers?

Stop fucking with me Dino.

I seriously thought the mod fucked up my role PM

[MathBlade]

I confirm I am lovers with Dino and he posted some sort of shit weird list to punk me lol.

From post 434.

[MathBlade]

Punking your mason buddy. That’s a new weird spot Dino.

[MathBlade]

So we seriously have an argument based on math we should randomly lynch?

[MathBlade]

So we seriously have an argument based on math we should randomly lynch?

How much do you like math and/or programming? I don't know you at all

I've seen you in other games and have wondered what would happen if you, me, and mathcam ended up in the same game together.

I have a BA in math and I work as a computer programmer.

I don’t know who Mathcam

[MathBlade]

Had fun presenting at a math conference but I choked.

[MathBlade]

So the argument?

[MathBlade]

Yeah well I think there’s a logical fallacy imho that random lynching doesn’t address besides the fact it isn’t a game.

I would rather lose having fun then “win” doing nothing too.

[MathBlade]

Another application of the law of averages is a belief that a sample's behaviour must line up with the expected value based on population statistics. For example, suppose a fair coin is flipped 100 times. Using the law of averages, one might predict that there will be 50 heads and 50 tails. While this is the single most likely outcome, there is only an 8% chance of it occurring. Predictions based on the law of averages are even less useful if the sample does not reflect the population.

So expecting this scenario to match a win because randomness says the most likely thing is a win is bad. (I am assuming if you’ve coded it like you said I will assume the math is correct for argument)

So let’s play mafia

[MathBlade]

Where it is helpful for is if mod confirmed information is in a subset whether to Lynch in or out of that subset. That’s where the randomness helps imho.

Anywho reading up.

Does anyone have an argument?

[MathBlade]

Nah.

Lylo is pretty easy just see who people won’t vote for and do.

Just gotta get people talking and analyze the lover pattern.

Can someone post the true listing?

[MathBlade]

Dino stop arguing you’re town because 99% of the time no one gives a shit to read it.

Just help me out by posting the real list and and the link to the “slip”.

[MathBlade]

Toranaga and sheepsaymeep

pisskop

Mathdino and

Amrochora/MisaTange

MathBlade
Redflavor and

manrock

Hyung
Cy and lalendra
Diamond and Sky
Kop and

bigfinn

momo

Thank you.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count

cytheflyguy (4) - Mathblade, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga
Mathdino (2) - Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel
momo (2) - sheepsaysmeep, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - cytheflyguy
RedFlavor (1) - momo

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)

K now for a moment assume cytheflyguy is town then the majority of the people on the wagon are town.

Then I know I and Dino are town. So red flavor and Toranaga need to be analyzed

[MathBlade]

Vote Count

cytheflyguy (4) - Mathblade, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga
Mathdino (2) - Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel
momo (2) - sheepsaysmeep, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - cytheflyguy
RedFlavor (1) - momo

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)

K now for a moment assume cytheflyguy is scum then the majority of the people on the wagon are town.

Then I know I and Dino are town. So red flavor and Toranaga need to be analyzed

Derp brain merge meld.

[MathBlade]

Huynh and sheep would also be town so that entire list would mean scum would be in the bottom half of the list of this is the case.

[MathBlade]

So Lalendra is voting momo so the only bottom half configuration

So the most likely configuration if cy is scum is cy/Lalendra and sky diamond.

Now let’s assume cy is town.

[MathBlade]

I mean then it's Sky and Diamond gaining towncred for being off the wagon. I doubt it's sheep/Tora and Red/hyung.

They get scumread if cy is scum.

Still working on town case.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count

cytheflyguy (4) - Mathblade, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga
Mathdino (2) - Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel
momo (2) - sheepsaysmeep, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - cytheflyguy
RedFlavor (1) - momo

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)

For easy reference for me since phone posting.

[MathBlade]

This would mean one of the red flavor/X or Toranaga/Y pairs would be scum.

While all town wagons do form on town scum likely could have hammered due to what seems to be weak scumhunting/townhunting if seriously talking random.

[MathBlade]

The fact that hammer hasn’t occurred would mean that there is likely a scum there in those pairs.

Ergo I am only interested in lynching cy or cy’s partner, Sky/Diamond, RedFlavor pair or Toranaga pair.

[MathBlade]

Tbqh VCA is mostly useless because scum will, ideally, (and, in previous setups, have) run each other up to L-2 and L-2 "proving" they aren't scum together and then let the town get paranoid and lynch town instead.

This massive deadline is hurting us. We need a flip.

Will you stop this?

Seriously.

You have your strengths I have mine.

I break games in lylo just let me work.

And hammer faking does expose itself in combination with the reads.

[MathBlade]

Hello everyone. So, shall we start with claiming lovers?

2. How could claiming lovers not help? Au contraire, since it's a nigthless setup, I think it's our biggest weapon here. If we claim lovers, we force the scum into pairs to begin with. Furthermore, if we have anyone super strong (I don't necessarily know if we do), if scum pressures their partner, it makes it pretty obvious. So, scum has to be careful about pressuring 2 slots in the case of one player being spot-on or whatever.

Also, by claiming lovers, it lowers the pool for scum to bus from, and lower the amount of chaos we'd have.

I discussed claiming with my lover and we didn’t know if that was a good idea or not so I guess we will go with the flow.

arent these two lovers

This looks really bad actually.

Still reading give me 30 minutes but cy/Lalendra and Diamond sky looking hella likely.

[MathBlade]

Math, I hope you realise that whatever grand theory you have for all 4 scum put together is most likely exactly what scum wants you to think is correct. There are strategies for scum with this setup that completely counteract normally good scumhunting/analysis.

Plus, I agree that LyLo is easy (I've never lost LyLo as town [or ever]). The hard part is you have 6 townies and 4 scum and you need all 6 townies to agree on who scum is while the 4 scum are throwing chaos into the mix. It's not the scumhunting that's the problem. That part is easy when you know you're town.

The problem is the politics.

Edit: IDK dude I've read too many games with this setup with good scumhunters that lose

Seriously. Omg will you stop arguing that playing mafia is bad?

I have taken many a shit spots and almost won it except Transcend game threw by voting too early saying he didn’t care.

Just give me a moment to fucking read and stop spreading despair that’s how towns lose.

[MathBlade]

So please just give me time to read.

[MathBlade]

It looks to me that Diamond was testing the waters to see if people wanted to claim, which is consistent with my more detailed explanation that you asked for in 391 and also with what Diamond opened with.

7 - I ask if we should crumb or not and say I have no idea wtf to do.
8 - Diamond says it's nightless, and speculates everybody will revealing there partners on day 1. Asked me not to reveal unless the trend seems to be going that way. Says that they'll just wing it and hope we win day 1.

Dino

I had to strongarm sheep into going along with my idea too.

That is literally the opposite of what happened. Hello? Aren't you supposed to be buddies with MathBlade? Why lie?

Okay Sky question:

Diamond said he asked you not to. Assume this is true.

Then why did Diamond ask if we should claim lovers? That seems counter intuitive and what emotion did you feel when Diamond did that?

[MathBlade]

I guess what we are looking for is the set of interactions between declared groups that seem suspicious. If you think of every player group as a hydra, we're looking for the two hydra's that have shady interactions.

So with that in mind I think that the mass claim is probably for the best, and in flagrant disregard of what my lover said earlier, I'll go ahead and declare that I'm paired with DiamonSentinel. Interestingly we both independently hated on the dice routine.

In our topic we basically discussed what the setup was because apparently neither of us read it before signing up, then freaking out when we realised that we had no idea how to scumhunt in this scenario, and then to claim or not claim. We decided we'd just go with the flow, so, here I am, flowing away.

That kinda sounds gross :V

You mean here?

Why did you claim despite your claim that your lover suggesting you hide it?

[MathBlade]

Mainly?

What is/are the other reason(s)?

[MathBlade]

pairs:
tor and sheep
mathdina and amrochora
redflavor and manrock

unclaimed:
cytheflyguy
kop
sky
bigfin
diamon
lalendra

K this means that either A) red and rock and tor and sheep claimed early intentionally
Or it’s the same 4 group before

@Sky did you have specific questions I missed? You said you were looking forward to something?

[MathBlade]

@MathBlade

when you are caught up, I would also caution you to examine the Tora/Sheep slot and it's buddying to your own. Dino's blanket acceptance and auto pass of the slot are one of the key reasons I am scumreading your slot.
Especially note Sheep has jumped off the Cy-wagon with the barest provocation.
The other reason is mainly Dino's attitude and playstyle seems hellbent on his way or the highway and that looks a lot like open wolfing to me. I do appreciate your efforts to actually play the game though.

That seems counter intuitive and what emotion did you feel when Diamond did that?

It fit exactly in line with Diamond wanting to know how town felt about claiming before deciding whether or not we should claim. I will admit being surprised that Diamond was the first person to bring it up.

Sorry no I just missed it.

Tired after a day of work.

I always post thoughts as I am reading. The VCA just narrows the search and you happened to be posting so you get questions. So yes I will be looking at all people I mentioned as I post.

Namely the first thing I noticed is that if cy isn’t scum the scumteam would have had to mass plan to claim lovers which is odd. This entire game is odd but that’s unique.

What do you make of that Paladin?

[MathBlade]

Assume cy is town
At least one of the red / y group or Toranaga / y group scum

Both groups claimed hella early.

Meaning it would be planned.

[MathBlade]

Or they just selected at random from the 4.

I don't think we can make much headway on the time at which they claimed. If I were mafia replacing a guy who wasn't even in the PT with a scumpartner who just said "Hello" in the PT, I'd probably just pick at random too to get a leg up on the claiming.

Yes. They could have.

But then still planned intentional claim regardless.

[MathBlade]

Toranaga and sheepsaymeep

pisskop

Mathdino and

Amrochora/MisaTange

MathBlade
Redflavor and

manrock

Hyung
Cy and lalendra
Diamond and Sky
Kop and

bigfinn

momo

Assume pairs 1,2,3,4,5 all town is your question if I understand.

Then Diamond and Sky and momo and Kop would have to be scum.

Unlikely diamond or sky don’t then hop on the cy wagon during the we don’t give a shit phase with that many seemingly inactive.

Possible yes likely no.

[MathBlade]

That I actually agree with but I really just think it is that four so any of that four is fine.

I think we will end up lynching Diamond but give me some room here Dino.

I wanna see how people react to this idea.

[MathBlade]

Erm...

I can’t understand cy’s post because I don’t know if cy means me, Dino, or actual math.

Can someone help translate?

[MathBlade]

Also I find it hella ironic that a pair of lover's URL is both math based, and unlike math, which is supposed to be the most universal truth ever, they can't agree on anything.

Dino is applied math.

I am pure math.

The truth is there somewhere.

But I still think you’re scum even though that is hilarious.

[MathBlade]

I am pure math.

e g o

Pure math is a type of math. Not ego.

Although ...*blush*

[MathBlade]

I'm honestly gonna be pretty peeved if we lose this because Math's reads are wrong, like those of every town before us. I'd take the 70% winrate anyday. But if we're doing this,

VOTE: Diamond

I guess Math's reads are, in theory, as arbitrary as anyone's.

@sheep: Pure math is theoretical mathematics. Some crazy shit. Number theory is a major example. Prime numbers. Stuff like that.

Applied math is self-explanatory.

VOTE: Diamond

[MathBlade]

I'm honestly gonna be pretty peeved if we lose this because Math's reads are wrong, like those of every town before us. I'd take the 70% winrate anyday. But if we're doing this,

VOTE: Diamond

I guess Math's reads are, in theory, as arbitrary as anyone's.

@sheep: Pure math is theoretical mathematics. Some crazy shit. Number theory is a major example. Prime numbers. Stuff like that.

Applied math is self-explanatory.

You realize I had logic for my reads right?

And with any luck will get one or two scum teammates to bus and have to limp off?

[MathBlade]

The other reason is mainly Dino's attitude and playstyle seems hellbent on his way or the highway and that looks a lot like open wolfing to me.

I'm confused about all these references to wolfing, isn't wolf a 3rd party that only exists in multiball?

Wolf is another word for scum.
But I suspect you were coached to ask.

[MathBlade]

UNVOTE: Dino
VOTE: cytheflyguy

I truly hoped that some other towns would come in to this game but I was clearly mistaken.

Yeah paladin is scum.

Quick bus vote then moving it before it matters.

[MathBlade]

Open wolfing basically exactly what Dino has done all game.

I'm probably not going to try to convince Dino and Blade that they are scum with Sheep since they're not inclined to believe me but I'm inspired to do some work to see if I can get the many afk and neutral players out there to vote. I was pretty salty that Blade/Sheep/Dino all decided that I'm scum but then I figured well I've been calling them scum all game, so that's fair.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dino

Aside from my many repeated statements that are trivially accessible in my iso the fact that Cy/Red both showed up to immediately vote for my slot when there was a better wagon around (sheep) should be enough of a concern that players go uh oh.

So to Lalendra/Cy/Momo/et al, what do you think about that?

More importantly, are you happy to go into LYLO tomorrow with Dino, who's stated strat is to arbitrarily pick a player (it could be you) and vote regardless of interactions, vote count analysis etc?

In other words why the fudge are players willing to sheep a slot that has no scum hunting except for badly put together fake reaction tests. Both Dino and Blade ignored my explanations for what was in my private topic which suggests to me that they were not looking for an explanation, they were looking for a target.

I am unwilling to go into LYLO while that slot is still active and if you are interested in playing the game of mafia, you should be putting your votes there.

If you disagree, please provide reasons.

Now let’s break down this bullshit:

1) Paladin proposes cy is town.
2) There is no better wagon than one that confirms scum.
3) yes people are dividing exactly on the lines I thought they would.
4) I did not ignore your explanations. I even asked questions about them. I just don’t agree think you’re town because they are logically inconsistent. I don’t believe in giving bullshit airtime.

5) People not playing the game in a protown way doesn’t make them town or scum what matters is the motivation and if genuine.

Buh bye now.

[MathBlade]

mathblade i hope you understand scum don't have daytalk

i don't know if that's a mistake you're making but it might be because it's too early for mafia

also power wolfing is an idiotic strategy for longterm forum mafia

this is an open setup. i would never suggest a strategy i genuinely believed to not work because i don't think i'm good enough to unironically support a bad strategy and legitimately thought no one would ever call me out on my shit

It’s irrelevant if they do or not.

Paladin’s vote switch off of cy is a scum claim.

[MathBlade]

I guess what we are looking for is the set of interactions between declared groups that seem suspicious. If you think of every player group as a hydra, we're looking for the two hydra's that have shady interactions.

So with that in mind I think that the mass claim is probably for the best, and in flagrant disregard of what my lover said earlier, I'll go ahead and declare that I'm paired with DiamonSentinel. Interestingly we both independently hated on the dice routine.

In our topic we basically discussed what the setup was because apparently neither of us read it before signing up, then freaking out when we realised that we had no idea how to scumhunt in this scenario, and then to claim or not claim. We decided we'd just go with the flow, so, here I am, flowing away.

That kinda sounds gross :V

You mean here?

Why did you claim despite your claim that your lover suggesting you hide it?

I told Sky to hide it because Sky was an unknown in my strategy. If I could control what they did, then that would remove a wild-card from my "team's" actions.

Then why not explain the entire plan to your partner?

That’s what I am not following.

It feels like Sky just made up something and y’all are scrambling to justify it.

Furthermore do you have a townread on Lalendra or cytheflyguy?

[MathBlade]

it's not against the rules i think but it's frowned upon

because most of the time it lowers town winrate by nulling any associations and also random lynching creates a low winrate in general

i've never suggested it before

besides even if the dice tag was against the rules you could just randomise based on the stockmarket or some shit
or the national debt

It’s more the provable randomness that is the problem.

It creates a lot of funky potentials for alignment confirms.

Kinda the same reason timesramps are bad too. You can confirm you had a PT with a player (unless you are a really skilled faker), generally things gotta stay in thread unless expressly permitted otherwise.

Furthermore don’t ever do what you did to me at the start of my replace in ever again. Seriously don’t punk your mason buddy like that.

[MathBlade]

Dino

i've done a completely accurate political analysis of the gamestate and if you and i are in lylo together, you know we're just gonna tear each other apart

so yeah let's do it now

Well that is almost true. We'll agree to disagree about the accurate political climate chart because you could only truly do this if you knew the alignments of players, and we won't bother with the 'well only scum could possibly know that' train because we're not children.

Regarding Cy/Lalendra, consider my situation for just a second. Just a second!

Sky sees Dino massively favoring a slot (Sheep) for no reason, and vice versa.
Sky sees a slot with 3/4 of that psuedoteam all hardlocking a slot because 'random'.
Sky asks players what do.
Those players switch to Sky.
???

I think anybody with any reasonable amount of knowledge of the game state - or actually, a reasonable knowledge about how the game of mafia works - would want to question this. I also think anybody would question 'wait why would players who are barely posting, jump in to the thread JUST to switch their vote to the next popular bandwagon'.

So the reason I say that 'is almost true' is because even at this point I as a player can realistically change my reads and do interesting or strange things, even if we wind up going to LYLO with both you and I standing.
Meaning if you and I are just town raging there is an even chance at some point I will figure it out and go 'Wait a minute, what is player x even doing?'
However I don't believe that is true of the Dino slot, because as you say, you have 'analysed the political climate' and you also confessed that your partner and you are in hip synch for a random (not actually random btw) and arbitrary lynch.

In short your predicating that Cy must be scum if I am scum, and that Cy must be scum because he wasn't hammered yet. But there were six player slots that barely existed that could have hammered and switching it over to me for no reason better than you haven't got your hammer yet is, actually, fucking bonkers. In a regular game of mafia we call that 'opportunistic voting' and that is a scum alignment tell.

Why did you write about yourself in the third person when it’s supposed to be from your perspective? *eyebrow twitch*

I am still reading I had a loooooong day at work but based on what I have read you and Diamond look inconsistent as fuck.

[MathBlade]

I guess there is one more thing. I think that town players ordinarily are not super confident in their reads. For example, I'm not town reading anybody. The strongest scum leads I have are Maths and Sheep, and this fundamentally began as a simple question 'Why are you guys townreading each other?' and went from there. So if at some point, Maths/Sheep revisit this and/or provide credible reasoning, a reasonable chunk of my push does dissolve. Because I'm aware of this I have at least floated the idea that scum may indeed be outside of the Maths/Sheep slots and am considering the possibility of yes, Cy/Lalendra could be scum, yes, Red/Hyrule could be scum, etc etc. I also do see indecisiveness in some other players, and to be absolutely fair one of them is Sheep, who has backflipped on their reads a couple of times in ways that I hate, but town aren't naturally confident because every town player has that secret nugget of doubt somewhere buried in their cold dark heart.

From time to time I expect to see traces of that nugget emerging and that's what I'm looking for when I town read players. I think townslips can be manufactured and scumslips can be misattributed, so I usually don't rely on them because often times I am wrong.

What I am interested in are sudden, unexplained behaviors - usually votes - or players influencing the game. The second camp I want to know can I trust this player because if somebody else has done all the hard work then I don't have to.

So when I see a player like Maths who specifically wants to avoid attributing themselves to any one thing, and yet is super hard behind a lynch of a certain slot - and uses an abstract case such as mathematics, or a WIFOMY case like lining-up-lynches - I don't see that towny nugget of doubt there. When Dino refused to look at sheep, it's because there's no need for him to do it - he already knows Sheep's alignment, and everybody who disagrees with him must be wrong. Not the intuitive "Oh, I see a player doesn't understand why I think x, let me explain to them why it is so", but actual totally ignoring that he was even asked, and even haranguing on me that I didn't ask properly as a justification for not doing it. This sense of entitlement, that they deserve a please and thank you, doesn't come from town.

These players are confident. They know exactly what they are trying to do. That confidence doesn't come from town who thinks they've caught scum. It comes from players who don't want to be questioned and don't want to have to explain themselves. Dino will happily engage on math discussion and talk with his partner or cut walls with me but he will literally not engage with any player in any meaningful way about game state and the reads.

I guess I'm having a hard time seeing that coming from town.

First of all,

My case is not abstract. Abstract math would put everyone to sleep.

I asked simple questions and derived at simple answers. You’re not attacking the points you are attacking me.

And do you know me? As town or scum I get pretty confident especially in lylo now that I have taken a game and started it up and you don’t push inactive slots to get reads instead you judge me before you know me.

You can disrupt my argument or idgaf.

[MathBlade]

i mean honestly i thought "hating arbitrary lynch" was lowkey a scumtell but then my partner did it
so fuck me right

lol fuck you sideways

idk still think it's cy;lalenda and sky;theother dude

also I'm pretty drunk rn, I don't use to drink so when I do I get wasted

go join another open game, this is basically not even a real game

i'd be so depressed if this was the only game i was playing

my open is queuing up once Masons and Monks hammers

and yeah that's our theory too so yeah

what do you think of kop/momo/red/manrock?

I believe redflavour's description of their mason thread because I 'know' manrock and the things redflavour said match with how I think manrock would act in the mason thread.

I believe kop;momo for much thinner reasons, but I think the timestamp mentions, while fakeable, are pretty sound reason to believe they're town

Wow time stamps too...I was using that as an example what NOT to do.

This game smh.

[MathBlade]

shit im not reading that

Ditto but I know Dino is town rotflmbo

[MathBlade]

I am just curious. Diamond Sentinel has played with me enough to read me.

Yet he only talks Dino. Why? Because Diamond is scum.

[MathBlade]

Furthermore don’t ever do what you did to me at the start of my replace in ever again. Seriously don’t punk your mason buddy like that.

How did this hurt you?

I did that to try to reaction test Math/Math/sheep/Tora for the benefit of those thinking that's the team. The fact that I specifically scrambled those teams and none others is indicative of that.

I’ve been a part of games where mods mess shit up.

Just don’t again ever. Like please.

Don’t skirt the spirit please.

[MathBlade]

Okay cool last words of one townie is good to me. Now that that's settled:

@Mathblade

: Couple things.

1. How are you reading this? On my phone

2. What exactly does Diamond/Sky/cy/Lalendra do in this situation to not get lynched? Why would I answer this when I already did before?

3. What exactly does Diamond/Sky-scum who's pairs with someone else, do in this situation? Already answered and I am not telling scum.

4. Should we just lynch cy instead? Why did the cy and momo wagons stay grounded while the Sky wagon has taken off? That is another option. I am okay either way. Mainly I need to do some comparisons and contrasts of the wagon for benefit of the doubt but it looks to be the majority of the same people.

5. So they're townreading us now (I think), which fucks the policy side of my argument. What does that mean? Nothing? Who scum scumread/townread is irrelevant once exposed. The reads help to see if fuvkups occur.

Edit: @Sky: "Letting the town do what it will" will just result in mafia doing a shitton of distancing. You know very well that scum would and should temporarily bus to distance in this setup. High stakes mean bluffs often work. It's like going all-in.

Luckily I'm in the business of calling all-ins when the odds are in my favour.

I really think this is just a good wagon but I wanna study it to be sure. And that means not when I am cooking dinner.

[MathBlade]

In other news, Sky, stop fucking wagon hopping. It's hard enough for me to deal with this wagon without you floundering here and there.

Anyways, VOTE: sheep. This is where my vote stays for the rest of the day.

(Oh, also, Math, would you stop sucking at reading me? This is 3 games in a row you've misread me completely)

Uhmmm the last game that just finished I was scum sooo I didn’t read you and this is notably different? If you’re gonna say I suck be factual about it.

I don’t see sheep being scum like ever.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count

DiamondSentinel (5) - sheepsaysmeep, cytheflyguy, Mathdino, Mathblade, RedFlavor
cytheflyguy (2) - Toranaga, Sky_Paladin
Mathdino (1) - DiamondSentinel
RedFlavor (1) - momo
momo (1) - Lalendra

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)

Sorry been sick as a dog haven’t had a chance to look at vote history but the fact the DS wagon is stalling too is encouraging.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count

cytheflyguy (4) - Mathblade, Mathdino, RedFlavor, Toranaga
Mathdino (2) - Sky_Paladin, DiamondSentinel
momo (2) - sheepsaysmeep, Lalendra
sheepsaysmeep (1) - cytheflyguy
RedFlavor (1) - momo

Not Voting (2) - Kop, hyung

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for day one is January 25th 7PM PST in (expired on 2018-01-25 19:00:00)

The only differences are sheep Toranaga and cytheflyguy.

Cy obviously will never vote for himself.

Sheep would vote Toranaga but not cy. Need to see if sheep supports that being at the start of the wagon.

Toranaga is voting cy but not Diamond. Need to see if Toranaga justifies that.

Back to bed for me.

[MathBlade]

Anyways, game at hand. MathBlade, why exactly do you insist that I'm scum here? My wagon seems to have sprouted because Dino didn't agree with my sentiments, sheep blatantly OMGUSing, and then everyone sheeping him because shitposting?

Wagon analysis and your partner’s wagon flopping looks like flirting with danger.

[MathBlade]

For example the wagon on cy.

Sky wasn’t willing to vote it before and I am looking for why and can’t find it.

Now Sky is willing to vote it yet doesn’t really push it. There’s words sure but no real “push” just a lot of vote changing.

The same thing has happened with cy’s wagon and yours.

I would expect scum to join/get intent if it was a town wagon. I just think scum were incredibly inactive and it bit them in the butt.

[MathBlade]

I'm having a hard time getting into this game.

Why are we voting for Diamond? Is it due to him going against Maths idea?

Cy, is the next biggest wagon, why are we voting on that one?

You need to read if you’re town.

This is unacceptable. If you’re town you could also look at your partner’s ISO too.

[MathBlade]

Toranaga and sheepsaymeep

pisskop

Mathdino and

Amrochora/MisaTange

MathBlade
Redflavor and

manrock

Hyung
Cy and lalendra
Diamond and Sky
Kop and

bigfinn

momo

[MathBlade]

I also need to hook this game up to my tool and go through and see which groups never voted each other throughout the game.

[MathBlade]

Mathblade, I don't know about you but this is weirdly working on me. Diamond's self-meta is correct. I'm having trouble figuring out who Dia/Sky are scum with if not cy/Lalendra.

I honestly really want that to be the scumteam because "La/cy in the Sky with DiamondS" is fucking perfect.

VOTE: cytheflyguy

So yeah gimme thoughts. I also need thoughts on sheep/Tora's responses ASAP. And when you're on I wanna talk about the sheep/Tora/Red theory.

Sky, besides that team (for which I'm seeing both tells for and against), what team are you gunning for?

#DEBS the movie

I am punting on what I said I am too tired

We have days.

[MathBlade]

It's enough.

I'd like Mathblade to read it

.
Like, it's pretty good. Paranoia says that I would kick my own ass if I changed my reads later based on some defence but it's obviously more beneficial to work together for now. If you're scum I'm more interested in catching your partnerpair I think.

Keep in mind I'm more invested in my townread of Tora. "Sheep sheep" was my motto because sheep was the only one hanging around doing anything (and was the first one to vote). This might've created the impression that I was strongly townreading sheep when it was more of a townlean on sheep informed by my townread of Tora. But do what you will.

Just waiting on dinner when I get home. Read backwards will hopefully see what I need to read

[MathBlade]

I see no value in self-voting as town tbh. Aren't you interested in who else is willing to vote you?

Tora has already indicated intent to hammer and, Sheep temporarily getting off the wagon notwithstanding, my countervote on Cy has no real value to distinguish that we're not partnered together if there's no other votes there - something Blade has pointed out.

Late the-day-before when I was salty I was thinking about a tactical modkill to force LYLO this dayphase but I felt that was a bit dirty. But the thought of "Is there some way that I can show I am prepared to kill myself to save the game" stuck with me and then I considered, there is no reality where scum would deliberately put themselves at L-1 with some players willing to vote and at least one threatening to hammer.

Whether that is actually a real/good thing to do is something I'd have to put more thought into before ever committing to it because anybody can go 'Self vote is a scum vote' and hammer, and that would be non AI and therefore useless in LYLO.

I have put myself as L-1 to weaken resolve.

I don’t like this point.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: cy

Going with the partner.

[MathBlade]

I think the team is that but more importantly in the case it isn’t we need to know for sure.

Diamond pair is the one I SR the most but cy/lanendra is my second.

[MathBlade]

Gonna be busy for most of the night.

[MathBlade]

Whatever. I'm kinda done dealing with this. When/if you lynch me, I hope for your sake you're scum, or else you need to never play mafia again, considering you're making up reasons to lynch me, and are now going back and forth on your reads on me and your partner.

First it's Sky's wagon hopping. Now they're being super townie. And this is all in the span of under a day.

PEdit: Sky, it's useless. This town hasn't been willing to believe us/townread us since we both took offense at Math's rando-lynch strat. It's not a matter of "I'm right/you're wrong'. It's a matter of "Nobody even bothers trying to listen to what I have to say" at this point. Every god damned game a scum starts a wagon on me and the rest of the town is just like "omg yeah they don't fit current meta lynch with fire" and lo and behold, I flip town. Can't remember the last time I got lynched as scum. Probably SaGa Frontier, when I was unlynchable.
At this point it's just me pissed off, as I am every town game because nobody bothers to try and read me.

This is inaccurate. I am against it as well.

Come vote cy as Diamond already is. Show me you’re not scum. Either we win (yay!) or we have enough information to demolish the information from the previous wagon and who hammers will help determine what’s left.

Show me it isn’t you and sky and cy and Lalendra.

[MathBlade]

I've considered it greatly. If sheep is town, then that means that, likely, Math is town. About a 60/40 there.

Kop/Momo has about a 75/25 chance of being scum.

Red/Hyrule is about a 50/50. Their general posting is town-like, but it seems like just the right amount of distancing that they could be scum.

Cy/Lalendra sits about 60/40 in favor of scum. Regardless of their alignment, sheep's cases shall be given no salt whatsoever, and their readlists to be ignored. They only sit at 60/40 because that means that Dino was right about sheep being town, which leads credence to their reads in general.

So ...Then if you’re at 60/40 and your partner is convinced Cy is scum (as evidenced by their vote) why do you not vote with them?

[MathBlade]

@Diamond
If the lynch on Cy goes through, won't have alignment information on Sheep. Presuming Cy flips green, where do you lynch?

I understand you want a sheep lynch this phase but I don't see any strategy for trying to actually make that happen. So I am interested in scenario's that are more likely to happen.

Cy flips green?

I look at sheep being about 80/20 scum. Math 65-70/30-35 scum. Red still about 60/40 town. Kop at about 55/45 town. Cy being town puts sheep/Math as the most likely scumteam given this constant push.

I've considered it greatly. If sheep is town, then that means that, likely, Math is town. About a 60/40 there.

Kop/Momo has about a 75/25 chance of being scum.

Red/Hyrule is about a 50/50. Their general posting is town-like, but it seems like just the right amount of distancing that they could be scum.

Cy/Lalendra sits about 60/40 in favor of scum. Regardless of their alignment, sheep's cases shall be given no salt whatsoever, and their readlists to be ignored. They only sit at 60/40 because that means that Dino was right about sheep being town, which leads credence to their reads in general.

So ...Then if you’re at 60/40 and your partner is convinced Cy is scum (as evidenced by their vote) why do you not vote with them?

Kiddo. Actually read. There's the assumption "if and only if sheep flips green, then Cy sits at 60/40 scum".

In other news, Math!scum is shooting up massively because MathBlade flat out not reading is a major scumtell.

In other news learn grammar.

If you say a statement the it applies to that sentence/paragraph.

For example

If it rains on Sunday then the ground will be wet.

There is a 100% chance the sun exists.

The sun existing is not predicated on it raining on Sunday.

Organize your posts better or something.

Oh and hammer cy.

[MathBlade]

is it hammer time?

You hammer this, and if they flip green, I will 100% powerlynch you tomorrow, reads be damned.

You're doing amazing at keeping this guy alive tbh.

Are we legit just waiting on Mathblade?

I am on the cy wagon. Why would we be waiting on me? Seems cy needs rope and no one is hammering.

[MathBlade]

We have a political problem going on. Have you been reading?

I haven't seen any comment from you since before I gave sheep, Tora, and Red that questionnaire a while back.

I have been.

Some point incorrectly scumread you.

And there are talks of “slips” which if you replace two letters in that word you get what I give about “slips”

People read they have opinions. However all of that is a whole lot of unnecessary words.

Either the people should vote cytheflyguy or give reasons to why cytheflyguy is town.

[MathBlade]

We have a political problem going on. Have you been reading?

I haven't seen any comment from you since before I gave sheep, Tora, and Red that questionnaire a while back.

I have been.

Some point incorrectly scumread you.

And there are talks of “slips” which if you replace two letters in that word you get what I don’t give about “slips”

People read they have opinions. However all of that is a whole lot of unnecessary words.

Either the people should vote cytheflyguy or give reasons to why cytheflyguy is town.

Ebeop fuck phones

[MathBlade]

Ebwop** really fuck phones

[MathBlade]

In post 963, Mathdino wrote:
We have a political problem going on. Have you been reading?

I haven't seen any comment from you since before I gave sheep, Tora, and Red that questionnaire a while back.



I have been.

Some point incorrectly scumread you.

Wait...is this your way of explaining a scumslip? Saying you "accidentally" scumread your partner seems a bit fishy to me.

1) I can’t scumslip I am town?
2) I was quoting/talking about Diamond’s reads?

I am confused.

[MathBlade]

Ohhh phone autocorrect Some players incorrectly scumread you. Lol

[MathBlade]

Mathblade please comment on me and Sky sitting in the thread together listing out all the possible scumteams and what makes sense or not.

Okay. I feel it is spam.

Cy is scum because of the lack of hammer.

I am at work. If in the absolute extreme case cy flips green then worlds matter. Right now it just doesn’t and there is no evidence to the contrary.

As I said before either you should be voting cy or explaining why cy is town to you.

[MathBlade]

There's a reason I said "only". I would have to do a lot of rereading to find the most likely scumpartners with Mop if it wasn't either sheep or dino, because those are the scumpairs that I have felt the most strongly about. Plus, if Momo/Kop are caught scum, it doesn't very much matter who their partners are.

p-edit: I thought you were saying "incorrectly scumread you" to Dino, if that wasn't what you meant then disregard my point entirely.

My phone fucked shit up.

If need be I can clarify.

I phone post a lot more so I try to catch that shit but sometimes whelp.

[MathBlade]

Cy is scum because of the lack of hammer.

I still think that you're discounting the possibility of "town won't hammer because if they do Dino will deathtunnel them" when it comes to the lack of hammer. We can't afford deathtunnels on D2 because two mislynches means scum win.

So because Dino is a loud player we shouldn’t lynch the most likely player to be scum? Wtf?

[MathBlade]

Mathblade please comment on me and Sky sitting in the thread together listing out all the possible scumteams and what makes sense or not.

Okay. I feel it is spam.

Cy is scum because of the lack of hammer.

I am at work. If in the absolute extreme case cy flips green then worlds matter. Right now it just doesn’t and there is no evidence to the contrary.

As I said before either you should be voting cy or explaining why cy is town to you.

Are you confident enough such that you'd be willing to do the "lynch me if I'm wrong" thing? Because if Red/hyung doesn't back down from us, it looks like we might get just one shot at this.

I am confident enough it won’t be necessary but if a Day 2 does happen that people will evaluate the Lynch data and find the scum.

[MathBlade]

When it means that being wrong equals two town lynches and losing the game, it warrants careful consideration, is my point.

Yes. It does.

And so far there is no “cy is town” reason given

Only excuses to lynch someone else.

Unless someone gives a reason for re-evaluation really wordy begging to Lynch someone else is all it is.

There has to be a convincing case to get another person to be more likely.

Right now I see what if what if waaaaah go look at this shiny toy.

[MathBlade]

Thanks for calling me a stubborn ass. It's flattering.

Anyways, I'm not hammering cy because I just don't SR cy really at all.

If you don’t scumread Cy tell me why you don’t.

Or better yet tell me why Cy is town.

Otherwise it reads “help! Cy is my buddy”.

[MathBlade]

And I will point out I was wrong on you Diamond but right on the theory

[MathBlade]

So still can’t read you. Even when I lurk to try.

[MathBlade]

That the cy wagon was scum based on voting patterns.

[MathBlade]

So still can’t read you. Even when I lurk to try.

90% of the site cannot. I don't aim to be unreadable. I merely play entirely emotion-based which doesn't fit in with the site-meta.

Yeah as an aspie I read extremely literal too literal at points anywho we got the scums.

Gg all

[MathBlade]

MathDino: Cy is scum because lack of hammer.
LaLendra: No you are wrong.
MathBlade: Lalendra is wrong.
Cytheflyguy: Lalendra is wrong.

profit

Yup. Rotflmbo I just didn’t want to point it out of potentially being called “conf!biased”

[MathBlade]

The fact that hammer hasn’t occurred would mean that there is likely a scum there in those pairs.

Ergo I am only interested in lynching cy or cy’s partner, Sky/Diamond, RedFlavor pair or Toranaga pair.

[MathBlade]

But yeah mainly I agree the setup should no longer be run but not because of the math but other reasons.

[MathBlade]

Yeah, I don't deal with VCA or voting patterns. They're wrong, in my experience, far more often than they're right.

Indeed, gg all

I've learned a couple things here:

1. I don't like vanilla/french vanilla setups unless I'm scum (Not in a "I only like playing scum" way. more "I like getting to play a chess match").
2. I don't like short games. Need multiple nights.
3. Night-talk games are weirdly more fun as scum than as town.

PEdit: Agree with MathDino. Arbitrary lynches are a bad idea.

I might consider trying to design an alternate version of this setup at some point, though.

In flipless or eternal lylo they are a huge help.

In flipful not so much. Sometimes they are okay.

[MathBlade]

I am honestly amazed Diamond didn’t tunnel me for lurking.

This game I was intentionally off trying to be better town.

[MathBlade]

Also I sigged cytheflyguy's comment

that is the perfect quote for your signature considering your mathy meta

You mean dino has my meta???

[joke]