Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[JDodge]

Vote: Jenter

[JDodge]

Lol. Jenter's collecting votes already...

I don't random vote but y'all knock yourselves out.

Ah, the innocence of youth...

This set-up is certainly the strangest normal I've been in so far. I think it will minimize lurking as a scum tactic. It's also safe to say there won't be any fake claims. This should be fun.

This setup would be absolutely shattered by a massclaim.

[JDodge]

This setup would be absolutely shattered by a massclaim.

It's also safe to say there won't be any fake claims.

Explain? Sorry, but I'm really new at this. Couldn't/Wouldn't everyone just claim to be a townie?

FBI Agent has no reason to. While this does have the unfortunate side effect of outing the lone town power role, it has the benefit of giving us a single confirmed townie (or near-confirmed) on D1. And quite frankly, I'd prefer a confirmed townie to a cop who is looking for one single person who may die before even giving us results.

The scum are forced to either fake-claim FBI Agent, thus giving themselves away, or claim townie, giving us our confirmed. It's their choice, really.

@JDodge: Innocence of youth? Explain?

"I don't random vote".

[JDodge]

This setup would be absolutely shattered by a massclaim.

It's also safe to say there won't be any fake claims.

Explain? Sorry, but I'm really new at this. Couldn't/Wouldn't everyone just claim to be a townie?

FBI Agent has no reason to. While this does have the unfortunate side effect of outing the lone town power role, it has the benefit of giving us a single confirmed townie (or near-confirmed) on D1. And quite frankly, I'd prefer a confirmed townie to a cop who is looking for one single person who may die before even giving us results.

The scum are forced to either fake-claim FBI Agent, thus giving themselves away, or claim townie, giving us our confirmed. It's their choice, really.

But wouldn't the SK just kill the SK finder immediately?

Which is exactly why I pointed that out.

Keep in mind that you must assume based on the low player count that the FBI Agent essentially gets

one

chance to find the SK with an investigation - something which should be 1 in 6. With that, there is the chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent anyways - again, 1 in 6. And there's a further chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent's

target

if they get an innocent - 1 in 6.

Now, if we massclaim, we not only find the SK, but we find the scum as well - if the FBI Agent claims truthfully and is not counterclaimed, we then have a 3/7 chance of lynching an anti-town role, and a 1 in 7 chance of getting the SK - this is actually better odds than if we weren't to massclaim, when we would have a 3/8 chance of anti-town and 1/8 chance of SK, not to mention the 1/8 chance of the FBI Agent being lynched.

Statistically speaking, massclaim is a good play. Logically speaking, it's brilliant, considering how much info you can get out of someone claiming.

[JDodge]

@JDodge: If this was a game of pure statistics, we would rarely type other than to vote. A straight lynch without a mass claim will give us a good deal of information. You are also neglecting implied odds. It is true that FBI has a slim chance of finding the SK, but the payoff for town is far greater than having a confirmed townie on D2 who will inevitably be the N2K.

Confirmed townie on D

2

? Why D[/i]2[/i]?

And if this was a game in which statistics played no part, we would be just as efficient if we were to bash our heads into our keyboards repeatedly and post the results.

Statistics are a major part of logic, which is the driving force behind most towns.

[JDodge]

Which is exactly why I pointed that out.

Keep in mind that you must assume based on the low player count that the FBI Agent essentially gets one chance to find the SK with an investigation - something which should be 1 in 6. With that, there is the chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent anyways - again, 1 in 6. And there's a further chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent's target if they get an innocent - 1 in 6.

I may be overlooking something but wouldn't the numbers be 1 in 7? We have 8 players and the FBI won't investigate himself and the SK won't kill himself so that means 8-1 = 7. I don't see why we should assume that the FBI will only get 1 chance to investigate. Day 2 will have 2 deaths so we'll be down to 6 players. The SK and FBI only have a 1 in 5 chance to get each other.

Why would we be no-lynching on day 1?

Now, if we massclaim, we not only find the SK, but we find the scum as well - if the FBI Agent claims truthfully and is not counterclaimed, we then have a 3/7 chance of lynching an anti-town role, and a 1 in 7 chance of getting the SK - this is actually better odds than if we weren't to massclaim, when we would have a 3/8 chance of anti-town and 1/8 chance of SK, not to mention the 1/8 chance of the FBI Agent being lynched.

I definitely need clarification here: If we massclaim how will we find SK? It's still a guessing game as far as I see. It's not as sure a plan as you make it sound. The 1/8 FBI being lynched isn't really an issue either as they would quickly claim.

The conclusion I've drawn from this post is that you're trying to scare the town into killing off its best asset. The FBI will likely make it to Day 3.

If we massclaim, we have definitive proof that one person is not scum - not to mention we can stop worrying about "what if ____ is the FBI Agent", which will allow us as a town to work more efficiently. And quite frankly I have no clue how you could possibly come to that conclusion - why would the FBI Agent likely make it to day 3? And don't you realize that if we haven't killed the SK or scum by D3, it's pretty much over for us anyways?

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

And why are

you

using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

[JDodge]

@ JDodge: I never claimed that statistics were not a part of mafia, only that the game isn't purely about statistics and I do not appreciate you trying to reduce it to that. Furthermore, you have overlooked one of my points...

I insist that the implied odds in this situation make discussion of the actual odds moot (or at least diminish their importance severely). My point is that the FBI finding the SK would be a huge payoff and the continued chance of that happening is well worth a slightly harder time determining today's lynch candidate.

The matter of payoffs does not necessarily factor into statistics - the odds of winning a lottery are, say, 1 in 128 million. The payoff is $25,000,000. Does this mean that spending every cent you have on lottery tickets is a good idea?

[JDodge]

I do not dispute the numbers.

I stand by my claim that massclaim wins games, that is a personal game philosophy of mine as adopted from Pie_is_good.

I stand by my call for massclaim by laughing in the face of stats. Ha ha ha ha ha.

I don't care if I am interpreted as scummy for suggesting massclaim. Deal with it.

[JDodge]

Vote: Ythill

Commending me for sticking to my guns then asserting an alterior motive.

[JDodge]

So Jenter, for point B, it's essentially "damned if I do, damned if I don't", correct? Wouldn't that be an indicator that my actions are henceforth a null-tell considering the fact that any particular response would in some way be interpreted as scummy?

It can't be a scumtell unless there is a similar action that could be taken that would be a town-tell. Same for town-tells.

And were stats the lynchpin of my argument? No, the lynchpin of my argument was that massclaim wins games - something you have failed to disprove. You have disproven my means of arguing my point, not the point itself.

[JDodge]

If I were FBI, I would not claim unless I knew there would be a massclaim. Stop fishing.

FoS: camisade

[JDodge]

The similar town action, Dodge, is not arguing for a d1 massclaim at all when it's so blatantly a stupid idea.

Also, you arguments are now useless. I haven't disproved that massclaim can win games, but you no longer have any evidence that they do, and you don't seem to be keen on providing any.

PbPA coming up when I get back in tonight.

Question: Is there such a thing as a universal scumtell?

avin: It's the contradiction between the two posts which is glaringly obvious.

[JDodge]

And 64 combined altogether for one big happy family.

[JDodge]

It's the contradiction between the two posts which is glaringly obvious.

You must be misunderstanding me because there is no contradiction. I'll try to explain better. What I liked about you sticking to your guns regarding the theory argument was that it demonstrated that it really was your opinion. However, my question suggested that there may have been (town friendly) ulterior motives for bringing up your opinion.

Obviously, if it's your opinion, you've discussed it on MS before and know what kind of response is likely. Therefore I question whether you were actually trying to bring about a mass claim or whether, in part, you were hunting for scummy reactions to that suggestion. I still do not doubt that favoring mass-claims is actually your opinion.

Do you understand? Would I be safe in assuming, from your response, that the simple answer to my question is: there was no intent to flush out scum with your suggestion of mass-claim?

I understood perfectly already. However, that is not really the main reason I am voting you - you have no logical reason nor basis to assume an ulterior motive in the first place. And your "Unless the SK is an idiot, he'll be playing pro-town" comment is also not pro-town.

[JDodge]

Answer the question, Jenter

[JDodge]

I assume you mean the universl scumtell one;
Oh, yes, I think there is. Or rather, unless there are specific things you can treat as universally scummy things to do, there's never any real point scumhunting.

Among such things would be arguing in favour of a massclaim on d1 in an open setup game where it obviously doesn't have any real benefit.

And herein lies the logical problem with your accusations.

In a vacuum, where everyone plays the same and puts off the same tells, there is a such thing as a universal scumtell. In this era of mafia as a whole, however, there has come a variation in playstyles that has lead to any universal scumtell being fairly useless. Anything that is a scumtell for one person is almost certainly a towntell for another nowadays.

Now when we consider this, you must ask yourself "Well then how do you scumhunt?". The answer to this is simple - you must know your opponent before you do battle with them. You must know what the other players will do in whatever situation. Said is the barrier between OK players and good players - good players know what their opponents will do in any given situation, and OK players will know what the majority will do in any given situation.

Therefore any usage of a universal scumtell has, in this day and age, become incredibly fallacious - an

argumentum ad populum

that says "because a majority of people do this as ____, then everyone who does this must be _____".

[JDodge]

EBWOP: Then again I suppose one must wonder if universal scumtells could be an exception as a social convention. Moral relativism and all that crap. Meta-ethical relativism would be a good argument for my side.

[JDodge]

Right... nice crap, nice crap.

Basically you're saying that because you OFTEN make scummy moves, it becomes a towntell for you?

That doesn't work, sorry.

Nice strawman, read my damn post and then make your half-assed assumptions. Thanks.

But aren't universal scum/towntells also about people OFTEN making scummy moves?

Congratulations, from your perspective you have just disproven the entire game.

But players can change their play style depending on what game they are playing in. If I acted a certain way as scum in game x, it doesn't mean that they'll act the same way in game y as scum.

That's not the point. There is higher chance of consistency from game-to-game from a meta-tell than there is from game-to-game player-to-player from a "universal" tell.

Universal tells are tools of mediocrity for people too lazy to meta others and/or too dense to grasp the basic psychologies of mafia.

[JDodge]

I have read your damn post. And yes, universal tells are about people OFTEN making scummy moves. That is why in situations like this one I look at a game ploy or action and think 'does this help us lynch scum'? If the answer is no, I ask 'is the player in question making an honest mistake'? And frankly you're too experienced for me to consider that arguing for an anti-town strategy incorrectly is an innocent slip.

You're also accusing every player on this site who doesn't metagame of being lazy... and that's a LOT of VERY good players you just called out.

You're trying to slip out of actually defending yourself by claiming that for you doing this is a towntell, and I don't buy it.

I have never once made the claim that doing this is a towntell. I am claiming that it is a null-tell. Stop strawmanning me. Seriously.

And very good players do metagame to some extent. Tell me which "very good players" don't metagame and I will show you the most foolish, over-inflated egos on the entire site. Anyone who thinks they can get away from metagaming and still be a "very good player" needs to be dragged out into the middle of the field and shot.

There is no reason to not meta-game. Any player in any given role in any given game should be using any tool at their disposal to do their job effectively.

And quite frankly your personal line of logicks are flawed when you consider that any person can make a mistake (I have not. I still stand by what I said.) at any point - experience does not make you the all-mighty mistake-free deity of mafia.

[JDodge]

It is no mistake. There is no accident. I indeed pushed and still stand by my massclaim idea.

A) Laziness.
B) Then that would defeat universal tells as well
C) That would also defeat universal tells

And I see how you backed away from the "very good players" thing, too. That tells me that you're fairly full of shit.

[JDodge]

You have an extremely low opinion of me, don't you Ythill?

Dodge; the second two do NOT defeat unversal tells, unless you're thinking of different Unversal Tells to me.

Arguing for anti-twn strategies is in my book the main universal scumtell, and cannont simply be a play variaton; "Oh, I just decided to try annd screw town over in this game, I'm using a varied playstyle," does not really cut the ice.

Also, lazy? I work hard from 7am-9:30pm most days. Not having time is not laziness. I genuiniely DO NOT HAVE TIME.

I agree with Ythill, though, theory discussion is completely off the point, and you still haven't in my view successfully explained why you argued for such a bad strategy.

We're working on the same definition.

If you're working hard from 7AM-9:30PM most days, then you will probably never be able to advance your mafia play anyways. So this is a greatly fruitless discussion.

[JDodge]

Minimal experience with camisade and avin.

And a medium amount of experience with Jenter. Whom I despise playing with.

[JDodge]

I don't share meta info. Personal policy.

[JDodge]

You are aware this is a team game, right? Does your policy stem from the fact that you don't want people to learn their own tells?

REALLY I HAD NO IDEA THIS WAS A TEAM GAME EVEN THOUGH I'VE BEEN HERE FOR 2 AND TWO-THIRDS OF A YEAR.

Yes. Yes it does.

[JDodge]

Why do you think it's just playstyle? JDodge is far more experienced than I am (or indeed pretty much anyone else here), he should easily know better than to argue in favour of anti-town actions.

When did massclaim become anti-town again?

Statistically speaking yes. Informationally speaking no.

[JDodge]

Ythill seems town because the bulk of his posts are non-opinionized inquisitive posts designed to give the impression of scumhunting while not committing to any actual stance.

[JDodge]

Sethaniel is.

[JDodge]

i was answering goborage, not you

[JDodge]

@JDodge- I am what?

Read goborage's post and pay more attention to the game please

[JDodge]

@JDodge: goborage's post is on the previous page, and your post immediately follows Jenter's, it's confusing.

Confusion is not an excuse for not paying attention to what I said immediately thereafter, which outright told you that I was answering goborage.

[JDodge]

Sethaniel is.

Care to elaborate?

Not really.

[JDodge]

@ JDodge; Stop being an utterly obtuse, stupid, angry idiot doing an impression of a hippopotamus trying to give birth to a giant magical ten tone were-seal. You are not just screwing town over, which is bad play, you're screwing every player in this frickin' game over, which is just purely anal.

I am as convinced as ever that JDodge needs to be lynched.

And alternatively you could stop being a complete and utter jackass for no real reason. You could use logical reasoning instead of ad hominem attacks and saying over and over again that I'm scum and start doing some scumhunting of your own. You could stop being a damn hypocrite and look at what you yourself are saying. You are not just screwing the town over, considering that you are likely town regardless of how far up your ass the stick has become lodged, but you're screwing every player in this frickin' game over because you're an ass.

Get over yourself.

[JDodge]

It goes like this:

Ythill>Sethaniel>avin>goborage>Dave>camisade>Jenter

Jenter has committed most all of his personal town-tells.

[JDodge]

If you want to be my second most scummy, you can be. No consequence to me.

I forget why. I'll give reasonings once I look it over again.

[JDodge]

If you want to be my second most scummy, you can be. No consequence to me.

Hell scummy. You don't even CARE who's your second most scummy? If you were town it would have a consequence as you would be trying to lynch scum, so you would keep at the top of your list only those committing scumtells. You just said it has no effect on you who is your second most scummy...

I'm not trying to lynch scum. I'm trying to lynch a SK, for which "second-in-line" is fairly immaterial until I no longer believe Ythill most likely. And who are you to say that I didn't find avin asking why he wasn't #2 scummy? You jumped on that line of reasoning without thinking through all logical reasons for why someone would say that.

[JDodge]

All my reasons for Sethaniel can really be traced mostly back to one post.

All right, I guess I should vote. I can either put JDodge at L-1 or make it a tie between JD and avinas. (noting that JD and avinas are the two dissenting votes.) As a town, we seem pretty committed to either JD or avinas as scum, so I think voting for anyone else would pretty well be a waste of time.

Why does he not want us to look at anyone else?

I'm going to base my vote on one main thing:

I don't think JDodge is the SK finder.

He's the most vocal proponent of massclaim, repeatedly saying that the SK finder should have no reason not to claim. If he's truly 100% behind that statement, then if he were the SK finder, he should say so.

So, he isn't the SK finder.

So why such a push to identify the finder? It's at least possible it's because he's the SK.

vote: JDodge

1) Why doesn't this logic apply to avin?

2) What is the point in publicly stating who you believe (or believe not to be) the SK finder (whom from now on I am going to refer to as the FBI Agent, as that is the term I am used to for such a role)? All you can do is narrow down the suspects. You seemed intrigued by the massclaim idea before this - now suddenly you snap against it on a line of illogic.

Any more questions or am I not presenting enough of a case on someone I don't want lynched today?

[JDodge]

It is a strategy that would befit an SK as well considering that mislynches help the SK, too.

[JDodge]

Every lynch helps the SK equally (except see below). There's no need for him to change his position, and therefore no need to risk suspicion by sitting on the fence or being vague. Not that I'm actually doing either anyway, but if I was they would be indicitive of a mafia alignment.

Killing at least one scum before D3 is crucial to the SK, because if D3 starts with 2 scum, the SK loses with town. Therefore a scum lynch is slightly more beneficial to the SK than a mislynch.

I don't believe you've explained the contradiction in your accusations.

You mean the supposed contradiction that you pulled out of thin air that has no basis in fact whatsoever? Yeah, not touching that one.

[JDodge]

You admit that SK benefiting from mislynch is true - how is it a contradiction if it is true? And furthermore, how did you leap to the conclusion that what I accused you of befits mafia more than SK anyways?

[JDodge]

So it's a contradiction because an SK would prefer a mafia lynch to a mislynch but what I said is still completely correct?

And fence-sitting/vague suspicions helps the SK equally considering it allows them to avoid heat on themselves. In fact, there is even

more

reason to do so since scum can still win if one of them dies - the SK has no safety net.

I maintain that there is no contradiction and that you are solely trying to shift suspicion off of yourself by disregarding my claims without basis.

[JDodge]

JDodge and Ythill have brought up the fact that hunting for scum and SK are different. Until now I've been treating the word scum as an all-encompassing term for town threats. I'm curious if anyone else has been playing under the same assumptions. More importantly:

what role does everyone think their most suspicious players are playing as?

I think that avinashv is an SK, not mafia. Right now all I have going is the FBI claim.

It's interesting that JDodge is dichotomizing mafia-hunting and SK-hunting. Maybe I'm just a newb but aren't they nearly the same thing? Hunting either bad guy is just a matter of asking questions and pointing fingers. Can't we hunt both of these bad guys at the same time?

They are nearly the same thing, yes. But you must also consider that an orange and a tangerine are nearly the same thing - yet their uses are entirely different.

And fence-sitting/vague suspicions helps the SK equally considering it allows them to avoid heat on themselves.

Explain how this allows one to avoid heat. I think it's clear that the opposite is true.

You can't be held accountable for your actions if you have no real actions to be held for.

I maintain that there is no contradiction...

Then explain why your first answer attempted to address the contradiction with the inapplicable statement that the SK benefits from a mislynch.

It didn't. It refuted the claim that there was a contradiction. Stop strawmanning me.

...and that you are solely trying to shift suspicion off of yourself by disregarding my claims without basis.

There was no attempt to shift suspicion. Initially, I questioned your claims

with basis

(that you are choosing to disregard) purely in my own defense. There was no attempt by me to reflect the suspicion back onto you. My only mention of suspicion against you came later, when you argued from a slippery stance, meaning one that embraces any claim in pursuit of the win, rather than attempting to determine and/or clarify the truth.

Can you say that again, only this time making sense?

[JDodge]

Mod:

Numbers on your vote count are wrong. Please fix them.

[JDodge]

Mod:

Numbers are still wrong. camisade + Ythill + Sethaniel + goborage = 4.

[JDodge]

Jenter: What are your opinions on everyone else besides goborage and me? Parroting the same thing over and over again is unhelpful.

[JDodge]

Ythill is consistently protown and I've played with him before so I'm reasonably assured of that. Avin I have repeatedly said is my #2.

After Avin, Cam and Seth are pretty neutral/vaguely town, Gob and Ythill being town.

Dave I'm most unure about. I don't think I can call a read until day two.

Do you think that me and avin are paired together as scum, or that one is SK and the other is scum?

And if you had to pick

right this instant

, who would be your pick for either scumbuddy/SK based on your response to the above?

[JDodge]

Instead you put him in mortal danger.

This is indeed the case. I fully intend to hammer, but I will not stand for whining about it being out of the blue. You have a few hours to pull your vote if you are uncomfortable with an Avinas lynch. Avinas has a few hours to claim.

This level of blackmail and forcing of hands is not in any way a pro-town action. Such a move should easily convince the non-believers that Ythill is today's lynch.

Which brings me to another question, Jenter - you say you've played with Ythill before and he's "consistently pro-town". This implies a meta previously. You have played with me before when I have acted this way and yet still insist I am scum - why are you judging your suspects on different criteria?

[JDodge]

Vote: Ythill

This is lylo, but scum can't quicklynch. Think it through, but no need to overly hesitate as there's still a chance that the town can win even if we lynch town today. Lynching

any

scum (mafia or SK) gives us an extra day, but SK is preferable.

[JDodge]

It's not quite as bad as lylo. Even if we screw up and hit town, the SK can simply choose not to NK and we'll move to Day 3. Or if his hunches are good he'll hit scum, which would be even better.

Anyhoo, I'm not quite sure who to vote for atm.

Have you read anything that Ythill has said all game? If so, then why aren't you voting him already?

Don't be fooled by a large number of words - it all boils down to the same short answer anyways.

[JDodge]

Ugh. Will

everyone

not voting Ythill

right this instant

please explain why they are not doing so in one paragraph or less. Thank you.

[JDodge]

And forewarning of the hammer is

extremely

pro-town.

Thanks for this, can you tell me what other actions that you've made are pro-town?

I don’t like the insinuation. I made that statement in reference to JD who was trying to say my warning of the hammer was anti-town. I’m assuming the question is rhetorical.

Forewarning of the hammer is not anti-town

only when you are giving notice longer than 48 hours

. Not everyone can check every day - expecting people to check every two days is reasonable, though.

[JDodge]

Forewarning of the hammer is not anti-town only when you are giving notice longer than 48 hours.

Thank you, oh great decider of arbitrary deadline criteria.

I like for people to post every 48 hours in games that I mod, although I generally don't enforce until 72 - not arbitrary. It's based on actually knowing how play works here. "A few hours" is even more arbitrary.

My criteria were as follows. I had a date with my wife that night. I checked the thread before we went out and saw that the people who had explicitly stalled (and another wagoneer) had posted again after my warning. None of them had unvoted.

Your point here being...?

Call it scummy if you like, of course, but I wasn't waiting for avin (who had been gone for a week) so the

only

person I dissed was cam.

What did you stand to lose by waiting? Someone might unvote and make you miss your chance perhaps?

JD, don't you find it suspicious that gob and seth asked the hammer to be withheld but didn't unvote after the forewarning? Or are you tunneling so hard on me that you're not hunting anymore?

Gob is very pro-town and I've already stated that I find Seth suspicious. And I find it perfectly reasonable for them to leave their votes there - as an attempt to pressure avin, unvoting would have harmed that greatly.

[JDodge]

@ JD - What would you think of an FBI-claim today?

I would first think "why didn't this happen yesterday" and then think "do it now".

[JDodge]

Replies first, then I'll get down to the business of looking at the evidence...

I like for people to post every 48 hours in games that I mod, although I generally don't enforce until 72 - not arbitrary. It's based on actually knowing how play works here.

This is nothing but an appeal to authority. Your experience doesn't make you right about everything and, in fact, you've already demonstrated a less-than-perfect knowledge of the game with your D1 mass-claim argument.

#1 - Needless ad hom.

#2 - Strawman - I never claimed that my experience made me correct. I stated my opinion on the argument., something that

you asked for

.

Your point here being...?

That I had criteria and that they were less arbitrary than yours. For example, I might have posted a 48 hour notice and had nobody post between that and the hammer. My "few hours" was based on checking the thread later and, seeing that 3/4 wagoneers had posted without unvoting, I figured enough time had passed.

This is indeed the case. I fully intend to hammer, but I will not stand for whining about it being out of the blue. You have a few hours to pull your vote if you are uncomfortable with an Avinas lynch. Avinas has a few hours to claim.

Why are you lying? What are you trying to cover up?

What did you stand to lose by waiting? Someone might unvote and make you miss your chance perhaps?

You're mixing suspicions again. The SK (whom you accuse me of being) gains nothing from a quick lynch. Your suggestion here only befits mafia. Are you sure you don't want to start claiming I'm mafia?

The SK gains just as much.

I have already argued this

. I am again asserting that you have as much of a reason as mafia would.

[JDodge]

@JD - just to be clear, you think Ythill is SK?

I think Ythill is

some

form of scum. And given that he is a better lead than my second suspect (Seth), I'm willing to gamble on that. I think he is slightly more likely SK than scum as it is incredibly difficult to link him to anyone in particular, and I would be more sure if he wasn't making so many good points as to why he's more likely scum than SK. Glad that he's being helpful in building a case against himself, though.

#2 - Show where I asked. You said something was scummy. I said it was pro-town. You said it was only pro-town under certain circumstances. I called those circumstances arbitrary. You said they were not arbitrary because of your modding experience. Period.

I was under the impression you had asked - my memory is slightly faulty, you see. Regardless, I was giving my

opinion

- my modding experience has lead

to

my opinion, and if you want to discount it based on that go ahead and discount everything I've said as my entire case against you is based off of things I have learned in my

playing

experience.

I was not in any way stating that my opinion was better than yours because of experience. I was pointing out that I have gained a knowledge from said experience that allows me to judge how long is long enough in my own opinion.

There was no lie. I gave a "few hours" warning. I was vague on purpose.

I checked back a "few hours" later to find that 3/4 had posted and I hammered. If I had checked back to find nobody had posted, I probably would have made a check-in post. Fact is, I didn't hammer until 3/4 of the wagon had posted.

How is "a few hours" less arbitrary than 48 or 3 or 72? How is vagueness in any way helpful to the town in this instance except as a fearmongering tool? And why are you discounting that 4th person? It is implied based on the 3/4 that a majority of the

wagon

thought it was a good idea, but that completely discounts the opinions of the other 4 people (assuming you yourself thought it was a good idea), which makes up roughly half the town as well as a majority of the town aside from yourself - and this included one person (myself) who was vocally opposed to the hammer.. In other words, you left half the town out of your entire decision-making process, in essence relying on the opinions of a scant 3 people.

This argument is the content equivilent of "nuh-uh!"

The SK must find at least one scum before D3. That fact is apparent in our current situation, where the SK may be forced to no-kill tonight. A quick-lynch is not a benefit to somone who must find scum. Nor is a townie lynch a benefit to the SK until one mafia hangs.

Let me guess, your reply is going to be some variant of "nuh-uh," right?

1.) There was no argument presented, that was laid there so I could see your proof of your argument before providing proof of my own (burden of proof, procedurals, move along)

2.) Unless the SK is near-certain that the person they're lynching is scum, in which case they would want to lynch before they missed their chance.

3.) Needless attack.

[JDodge]

I was not in any way stating that my opinion was better than yours because of experience.

It was heavily implied.

Yet it was not explicitly stated - it was an assumption on your part. I'm tempted to say that this is likely a null-tell anyways, so that's immaterial.

How is "a few hours" less arbitrary than 48 or 3 or 72?

The phrase is not. The actual timing of the hammer, being based on players' actions rather than an incriment of time, is less arbitrary. Moreover, you applying that magical number to whether someone else's actions are scummy or not makes it even more arbitrary, which was my point.

Then isn't any criteria applied to any one person in essence arbitrary, thus meaning that any point that can be made against anyone can be brushed off in a similar fashion? You can say that only scum uses the word parakeet on Tuesdays, but where does that come from? You can say that only town would attack someone in such way, but how is that not arbitrary in and of itself?

The fact of the matter is that mafia is in and of itself a game based in the theoretical and arbitrary; very little can be taken as

fact

and everything can be taken in any way you wish. This is why logic is more and more becoming a failing point in mafia and psychoanalysis is becoming a great and highly useful tool - you have to try to understand people's intentions by working on as many levels of competence, intelligence and rationality as humanly possible. My point being that from the expected levels of competence, intelligence and rationality from you, I cannot see the townish reason for the hammer like that.

How is vagueness in any way helpful to the town in this instance except as a fearmongering tool?

A specific warning could effect the actions of the scum. For example, a player who checks in 11 hours after a 10 hour limit has been set.

It also wouldn't allow flexibility on my part. If I'd said, "I'll hammer in six hours," and then checked in six hours later to see that nobody had posted, I'd have to choose between going back on my stated course of action or hammering with zero feedback, both detrimental to town.

Finally, the vague statement "a few hours" conveys a sense of urgency, motivating concerned players to post and, if they are serious about waiting, to unvote immediately.

Meh, fair enough.

There was no argument presented...

That's what I was saying. It was a stance masquerading as an argument and I wanted to pull the mask off.

It was not an attempt at an argument. There was no mask. I wanted your proof of your argument so I could go from there.

Unless the SK is near-certain that the person they're lynching is scum, in which case they would want to lynch before they missed their chance.

The same would be true of a townie. So your statement amounts to

Ythill is the SK because he did this thing that is a likely action from any role.

Damnit, you're right. Now that I think of it, SK has even less reason than town - he can just nightkill instead.

Unvote

for now, I have better leads to pursue.

Vote: Sethaniel

Case forthcoming when I have the time.

[JDodge]

Mod: I unvoted and voted Sethaniel

[JDodge]

I'm not going to post my case until Seth answers Ythill's question of whether or not the FBI agent should claim.

I don't think that a consensus vote should make the FBI want to claim anyway.

In which case whomever is actually the FBI agent should kill themselves for not following the requests of the town.

If you are a town powerrole, you are obligated to follow the consensus of the town regarding your role actions. Not doing so is acting directly counter to the best interests of the town as a whole as determined by the town itself.

The only person that really has a say in this decision is the FBI agent. 3 of the people still in this game are not acting with the best intentions of the town in mind, and whichever way those people vote can greatly affect the outcome of the consensus.

3 of the people are not acting with the best intentions of the town, correct. But it is fallacious to use that as an argument as there is only one person in the town acting with the best intentions of the SK - scum wants to get rid of the SK as much as the town does, and frankly it doesn't matter for them to keep the FBI Agent alive.

What is this vote really going to do for the town? FBI is under no obligation to abide by it.

Because the FBI agent claiming will help us find the SK, which is definitely *goodplaying*. Already covered the first part.

I think it's most likely going to be used later as evidence towards the lynch. Either "he voted for FBI claim, so he's SK" or "he didn't vote for FBI claim, so he's Mafia" or "he wouldn't vote, so he's scum of some sort. . ."

How is this in any way a negative? It's almost as if you

want

our lynch choice to be less informed.

[JDodge]

Not it. Have a good idea of who it is.

[JDodge]

Also, seth gains major town points for that last post.

Unvote, vote: camisade

Best lead at the moment. Will post case later, don't wait up for me, blah blah blah.

[JDodge]

I'm following through with my massclaim plan from ages ago. What are you doing?

[JDodge]

Unless we get a counter-claim (which we shouldn't), the SK suspects have now been narrowed down to Dave, gob, Seth, and myself.

Unvote, vote: Ythill

No legitimate reason to clear me.

now, demonstrate a clear link between Dave and Seth. Go go go.

[JDodge]

Unless we get a counter-claim (which we shouldn't), the SK suspects have now been narrowed down to Dave, gob, Seth, and myself.

Unvote, vote: Ythill

No legitimate reason to clear me.

now, demonstrate a clear link between Dave and Seth. Go go go.

Good god i am dense.

Unvote

Leaning heavily towards gob over Ythill over Dave.

[JDodge]

I think we've come to the conclusion that Dave is a noob.

I still think he could be an alt. Real n00bs tend to say too much, not too little.

I'm pretty sure they don't. I'm going to make an

actual

appeal to authority here and cite my 15 newbie games played and 9 newbie games modded. Noobs have no tendency either way - this sort of thing is based on personality type, not experience.

[JDodge]

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

This leaves camisade/Ythill/Dave. If gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

[JDodge]

Whichever of which three?

Cease the dumb act. Please.

[JDodge]

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

This leaves camisade/Ythill/Dave. If gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

Really? You would vote for camisade if I did it first?

Yes. Same for Ythill or Dave.

[JDodge]

Whichever of which three?

Cease the dumb act. Please.

It's not a dumb act. Look at what you said...

This leaves (1)camisade/(2)Ythill/(3)Dave. If (4)gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

That's four, and one of the first three is the FBI. I was wondering if you meant me, Dave, & gob or me, Dave, and cam. So, whichever of which three?

Assuming, from your last post, that it's the latter... Why don't you believe cam's claim?

Because I keep forgetting its existance.

This puts me in a pickle then.

[JDodge]

Have you at all read his posts?

If not, read them again in isolation.

Then

you can ask.

[JDodge]

Mod:

Prod Dave and camisade.

I don't care if you have some 100whatever hour rule or not, I want people posting every 72 hours or great suffering to them will occur.

Prodded. VC updated - Andy

[JDodge]

Mod:

Dave replacement please.

He picked up his prod and didn't respond. I'm on it - Andy

[JDodge]

Because all the points against him could easily been construed as newb-town mistakes - there's not enough meat on those accusations there for me. When you take away those, you're left with a solid pro-town base beneath the actions.

That and I can't see any real connection for Seth.

[JDodge]

JD, you said you'd vote for whoever got voted first. Are you not suspicious of Dave?

Didn't even notice. But no, not going to vote now. Too many thoughts.

[JDodge]

Vote: Ythill

for now

[JDodge]

Mod:

Please put any important mod notes (such as the one you added to Ythill's post) in a separate post next time so that it can be assured that people will notice it. I had to look back just now to figure out what the hell Ythill was talking about.

[JDodge]

Precicely those two. However...

It is not just that they didn't remove their votes (which I wouldn't find scummy by itself), but that they also pretended they didn't want to lynch Avin yet.

Due to other evidence it is my opinion that TSQ is simple mafia while gob is the SK. Nothing new here.

There's a chance that, y'know, they

actually didn't want to lynch Avin yet

.

You will respond to this with a cop-out comment like "why were they voting him then", to which I will respond "votes are useful for more than just lynching". You will respond to this with another cop-out comment like "they can pressure him without votes", and I will respond "not as efficiently" or something similar.

There, I just saved us a few posts of work.

[JDodge]

@Ythill: if we are a scumpair, we're sure being obvious about it.

If we are a scumpair, I got the wrong role PM.

@ JD: Actually, my "cop-out" response is: why didn't they unvote when the hammer was imminent? This sort of negates your projected response, but thanks for trying to be efficient.

No, not really. My responses are still entirely valid.

TSQ can't really explain why Dave didn't unvote. However, gob has stated that he thought I would honor his request to withhold the hammer. Why would he think this?

Because he assumed you were a rational and intelligent member of the town perhaps?

If I am scum or SK and Avin was town or SK, I certainly wouldn't have withheld the hammer. If I am town, I wouldn't have lied about the fact that I was going to hammer. The

only

scenario where I would have withheld that hammer is if Avin and I were scumbuddies. At the time, gob had neither made nor hinted at any such theory.

If you were scum or SK, you wouldn't say "I did what I would do as scum". You would always try to justify it from a town perspective. That makes this paragraph useless in that sense.

In the absence of his silly excuse, the only reason I can see for gob (1) saying he wanted to wait on the lynch and (2) neglecting to unvote when a lynch was imminent is that he actually did want to lynch Avin but wanted us to believe otherwise.

Or, y'know, he didn't want to immediately end the day and wanted to make absolutely sure he was ready for this in such a setup where mislynching is so harmful.

[JDodge]

O you got me. Dave = TSQ. In the event that Ythill is SK I suppose Dave + JD or Seth + JD are most likely.

Considering lynching any scum is vital, why are you voting Seth when Ythill and myself are the common denominators in your suspicions?

[JDodge]

This is lylo. Do not vote without good reason.

I am going to assume that gob will likely vote and/or FoS me as soon as he gets on, so let me save you the time by asking what links me to Sethaniel and/or Shea before you lose this game for us.

[JDodge]

Grimmy is confirmed by lack of counter-claim. This leaves a suspect pool (to me) of Shea, gob and Seth.

gob is best connected to Seth, although his silence on Dave/Shea is odd.

Dave/Shea is unlinkable to me.

Seth is best connected to gob, although his silence on Dave/Shea is odd.

I am most inclined to believe gob/Seth is the scumpair. I would like to ask everyone else for their input.

[JDodge]

um............ bah?

Man I am good at this game we call mafia.


That being said, Jdodges "link me to someone lol" post is ingenuous at best, and presupposes that just because he isn't BEST linked to someone, then he is not scum with them. This ignores the nature of mafia, which Jdodge is well aware of, and also ignores the fact that jdodge is a particularly good player.

I am happy to vote here when the time comes.

Which post are you talking about? I can't remember making such a post.

[JDodge]

Grimmy is confirmed by lack of counter-claim. This leaves a suspect pool (to me) of Shea, gob and Seth.

gob is best connected to Seth, although his silence on Dave/Shea is odd.

Dave/Shea is unlinkable to me.

Seth is best connected to gob, although his silence on Dave/Shea is odd.

I am most inclined to believe gob/Seth is the scumpair. I would like to ask everyone else for their input.

This is the post, Jdodge. You note everyones connections, and specifically how they are not best connected to you.

Yes. I do. However, I meant that in that I

find

you unlinkable to anyone else. I have not gone through and try to see how people could be connected to myself as that defeats the purpose of trying to connect people to each other in order to find a logical scumpair, as I

personally

know that I am not scum. And the fact that Seth and gob are linkable is my case against Seth in its entirety. Gob, I find it strange when you are asking for a case against Seth but not against you; why is this?

[JDodge]

I am going to assume that gob will likely vote and/or FoS me as soon as he gets on, so let me save you the time by asking what links me to Sethaniel and/or Shea before you lose this game for us.

Does this quote sound as if JD knows info about me that he shouldn't? "before you lose the game for us" sounds like "before you make a mistake". If I were scum how could I make a mistake? I think that JD knows I'm town (because he's scum) and is trying to make me second-guess myself.

I think that I'm trying to save myself the hassle of dealing with this bullshit today, and I think that anyone on the pro-town level would realize that the game essentially would end if we lynched a townie yesterday.

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

Haha so what happened between then and now? D1 Seth was scummy, D2 he's town, D3 he's scum again.

Times change. People post. If you expect people's opinions to remain static despite deaths, etc. and then call them

changing

said opinions scummy, you're going to end up leading a lynch on town more often than not.

Dave is a little tougher to nail. He hardly posted D1 and TSQ is refusing to post anything more than the bare minimum.

If Shea's only posting the bare minimum, then Grimmy's and Seth's activity levels are completely unacceptable. Why aren't you on their cases about that?

As to linking JD with Dave - I noticed that there was very little interaction between the two D1. Dave put a random vote on JD. When asked about their scum-rankings both place each other somewhere in the middle (Posts 140 & 175). What I find interesting is that pretty much everyone except for JD (and Jenter for obv reasons) calls Dave out for lurking or some other anti-town move. JD is silent about matters revolving Dave. Why is that? It's the lack of interaction between the two that I find suspicious.

Yes. I found Dave middling and unreadable. Therefore, I admit that I have pretty much ignored Dave. So your entire case against me is:

1. A quote taken out of context used by me to help keep the town from mislynching (as, from my perspective knowing that I am protown, lynching me would have pretty near doomed us unless Ythill killed scum)
2. Me changing my mind over the span of 3 days.
3. Me ignoring someone whom I had no opinion on and did not plan on creating an opinion on.

[JDodge]

If Shea's only posting the bare minimum, then Grimmy's and Seth's activity levels are completely unacceptable. Why aren't you on their cases about that?

I am. Read the posts on the previous page.

Then why is this enough to condemn Shea and not Seth?

I think that I'm trying to save myself the hassle of dealing with this bullshit today, and I think that anyone on the pro-town level would realize that the game essentially would end if we lynched a townie yesterday.

A quote taken out of context used by me to help keep the town from mislynching

The post was made at the start of Day 3 - AFTER Ythill's lynch. The fact that you don't know the context of the post makes me uneasy. I guess scum don't need to keep up with the game; they already know everything there is to know right?

This changes things... how?

Context is still missing. Timing is irrelevant - we would have lost if we'd lynched a townie yesterday and we do lose if we lynch a townie today.

Your post was a preemptive strike against me because I already discussed my pairing scenarios D2. If your intention really was to "help keep the town from mislynching" then why is the quote directed at me? And why does it sound like you're identifying me as town?

My post was saving us the trouble of playing screw-around for the next 5 days as we post about meaningless and useless trumped-up bullshit whilst you spend your time continuing to go on a one-man crusade to completely and utterly paint me as scum while not actually voting. So now I'm calling you on it - if you're so convinced, vote on it. Stop pussy-footing around and do it. Granted it makes no sense considering

both the scenarios you mentioned earlier contain Shea as a common denominator

, but whatever floats your boat.

You're taking every single thing I say and nitpicking on the semantics of the argument as well as taking the specifics, removing them from the context of the larger whole which

is required for the case to make any sense at all

so that it better suits your arguments.

Me changing my mind over the span of 3 days.

Sounds like scum trying to justify throwing out accusations whenever it's convenient. What would help convince me is a reference to specific posts where Seth's alignment changes from town to scum and vice-versa

I could, but that would require me remembering what my exact frame of mind was betwixt each post that I made regarding Seth. Note also (and I will add this) that my opinion of Seth changed back to scum

after a reread searching for connections

. I believe I noted that, but you may have ever-so-conveniently left it out way back when.

Yes. I found Dave middling and unreadable. Therefore, I admit that I have pretty much ignored Dave.

Me ignoring someone whom I had no opinion on and did not plan on creating an opinion on.

Do not like. Why didn't you direct any questions towards him?

Because I wanted Ythill lynched and didn't want to distract from that.

After finding Ythill your attention to this game has really dropped. I'd say you were on the ball D1 and D2 but D3 it seems like you've stopped trying. I can only speculate that this is because you already have all the info.

Site-wide inactivity - research before finger-pointing please

So what's your case against me and Seth?

My case against Seth is that I can connect him to you. My case against you is that you can be connected to Seth and now your half-assed offensive (which I can tell Shea is loving from the sidelines; gob-Shea connection possible), which makes me have no regrets as I

vote: goborage

. Please die post-haste.

[JDodge]

Wtf? I basically nailed the SK yesterday... How exactly am I refusing to post more than the bare minimum...

It's also worth noting that I nailed the SK on

day fucking one

and nobody listened. If you're town, stop taking the credit for my actions. If you're scum, stop being disingenuous and taking the credit for my actions.

[JDodge]

OK you've won me over TSQ. The fact that you didn't end the game right there convinces me that you're town. It's JD & Seth.

Unvote, Vote: JD

Unless he's scum with me. But I think you already want to paint Shea as town and me as scum, so I'd say it's now more likely you + Shea.

[JDodge]

Right. Reverse those.

Shea, you earlier claimed that me pushing massclaim was a good idea for mafia, correct? If so, please state why.

[JDodge]

Pretty sure mvp can't come from the losing side...

My official response is "up yours".

[JDodge]

or better yet "SUCK ONNE"