♥ ♠ Open 711: Stack The Deck - Game Over ♣ ♦

[Montosh]

That was directed @Sky btw

[Sky_Paladin]

NSG

right, so what made you choose jay over screen?

I didn't - I chose Screen, who was at L-1 for quite some time, and then voted Not Mafia because I felt that player slot needed (and still needs) pressure. When I came back, the Screen wagon had fallen apart and Jay was at L-2. I felt that Jay was behaving very strangely for a player who had gone from just about to secure their preferred lynch to being the main lynch candidate, and that was in line with me scum reading the slot from earlier. So I voted and pushed for a claim and, well, here we are now.

[Sky_Paladin]

Sigh well if it's that obvious I might as well say it.

NSG are you counterclaiming Jay?

[northsidegal]

@NSG: The thing is you are neglecting the possibility of there being other TPRs (I'm not going to argue anymore about the probabilities).

If a Goon Cop is in play and they catch a Goon.. and/or if a Vigilante exists (and we are sure to know if there's one w/i the need for them to claim), and/or if there's a Tracker with a result...

Now imagine (just for my sake, OK? Just a hypothetical assumption) that ALL 3 ARE in play. Now how likely would you say Jay managed to fake the one and only possible PR claim that would not be CC'd? Remember that Scum know "how many" but not what the roles are, and the IC has already been eliminated, so if they knew there to be 5 then they knew they could not have fake claimed any, and if they knew there to be 4 then it was a 25% shot (I had claimed before Jay did). Even if they knew there to be 3 TPRs then that was a 50-50 chance. Now if they knew there to be only 2 and I already claimed one hen it was a 75% chance (which I agree is acceptable), but with me still thinking Scum would chose abilities I'm leaning against that last one.

If jay is scum, why does he care about how likely it is that his fakeclaim succeeds if he thinks he's going to be hammered if he claims vt? You're making the point that jay as scum wouldn't fakeclaim because A) scum chose powers and thus town have more power roles and B) because A is true, scum would know that they'd be counterclaimed, and thus jay is not scum. What I'm saying is that if jay is scum, he's going to claim in that situation no matter how unlikely it is, because there are only benefits to claiming a pr and only downsides to claiming vt.

I don't disagree with you that Jay looks rather scummy. We're still not lynching a claimed PR day1.

The 'resolve itself' thing applies more to A50 because his role, played right, should lead to him dying. It doesn't apply quite as much to Jay, but we're not lynching him today regardless.

so what new information do you think will help resolve the jay slot? please help me understand this, because from my perspective this is just kicking the can down the road on someone who i scumread.

I think that if Jay flips town rb at any point this post/push is quite bad tbh.

@nsg: given that we're not lynching the claimed rb today, who do you want to lynch?

why's that? why do i make this point clear as scum when i could just silently do the scum strategy that i suggested and leave jay alive? why do i draw massive amounts of attention to myself through this?

i could do any of the second lowest tier of my readslist.

[Almost50]

You're creating WIFOM over the slot that, if town, creates the oppurtunity for a mislynch.

I strongly disagree. I think what NSG is doing a good job in exploring the most unlikely of scenarios and considering all possibilities. Scum already know if Jay is faking or not, and cannot afford to keep him alive to -say- D3, lest he blocks the kill and thus claim a guilty on one of them. If they do let him live that long it's their own loss.

P-edit: Good point by NSG. Titus almost always claims an existing PR in open setups when put @L-1 as Scum in order to draw a CC and help her team still.

[northsidegal]

NSG

right, so what made you choose jay over screen?

I didn't - I chose Screen, who was at L-1 for quite some time, and then voted Not Mafia because I felt that player slot needed (and still needs) pressure. When I came back, the Screen wagon had fallen apart and Jay was at L-2. I felt that Jay was behaving very strangely for a player who had gone from just about to secure their preferred lynch to being the main lynch candidate, and that was in line with me scum reading the slot from earlier. So I voted and pushed for a claim and, well, here we are now.

I don't think the screen wagon had fallen apart at all – from my count, both screen and jay were at l-2, and you chose to put jay at l-1 and get a claim out of him instead of voting screen. To me, the fact that you did this instead of voting who your stated preferred lynch was seems like you were fishing for claims, hence voting the person who hadn't claimed over the one who had.

to your second question – i'm not claiming anything and i'm pretty sure that i don't need to.

[northsidegal]

To clarify on that last part – I've thought this through and I'm pretty sure that me not claiming anything is strategically a very good choice.

[skitter30]

so what new information do you think will help resolve the jay slot? please help me understand this, because from my perspective this is just kicking the can down the road on someone who i scumread.

Flips today/tonight, and if anyone cc's - a mass claim is kinda inevitable at some point imo. Day 1 town has the least amount of info, and we just don't have flips to work with. Tomorrow we'll have more info.

Like I'm not arguing that we should leave the slot alive till like a time-critical phase like LYLO, and I'm fine with revisiting Jay tomorrow in light of flips. I don't really see why you'd lynch a claimed PR before they had at least a night to (maybe) get results.

why's that? why do i make this point clear as scum when i could just silently do the scum strategy that i suggested and leave jay alive? why do i draw massive amounts of attention to myself through this?

As scum, if you're planning on dealing with Jay by leaving him alive, you kinda need to build up that paranoia so as to make him mislynchable. In a vacuum (ie without this discussion), I don't think he's getting lynched soonish on claims, and by pushing this line of reasoning, Jay's slot has become controversial enough that he can be left alive and has probably become mislynchable, maybe even for today.

You're creating WIFOM over the slot that, if town, creates the oppurtunity for a mislynch.

I strongly disagree. I think what NSG is doing a good job in exploring the most unlikely of scenarios and considering all possibilities. Scum already know if Jay is faking or not, and cannot afford to keep him alive to -say- D3, lest he blocks the kill and thus claim a guilty on one of them. If they do let him live that long it's their own loss.

P-edit: Good point by NSG. Titus almost always claims an existing PR in open setups when put @L-1 as Scum in order to draw a CC and help her team still.

Disagree. I think it's a good scum tactic to create enough WIFOM over a sketchy town!PR's non-death in order to make them mislynchable - it's a great way imo to handle a PR without actually having to nk them.

[northsidegal]

As scum, if you're planning on dealing with Jay by leaving him alive, you kinda need to build up that paranoia so as to make him mislynchable. In a vacuum (ie without this discussion), I don't think he's getting lynched soonish on claims, and by pushing this line of reasoning, Jay's slot has become controversial enough that he can be left alive and has probably become mislynchable, maybe even for today.

sure, i'll agree that it could be a viable scum strategy, although even if you can't trust me i can tell you that i would have played it differently as scum.

if you're interested in talking about something else, what are your thoughts on my sky paladin and the worst points? (this goes out to anyone else, as well)

[Almost50]

Disagree. I think it's a good scum tactic to create enough WIFOM over a sketchy town!PR's non-death in order to make them mislynchable - it's a great way imo to handle a PR without actually having to nk them.

Well. we have different approaches to Scum play then. I'd rather not take risks, and I hate being guiltied.

[skitter30]

eh, really it's just been the thing that more people have asked about, so that's what i've been talking about. if you'd like to discuss something else, here's a "hot take" – the worst is scum who's been coasting along, giving a lot of commentary on other people but without ever really getting into a conversation himself or pushing anything himself. really – read though his iso and take a look at how much of it is giving thoughts on other people or updates on his thoughts, and how little of it is actually pushing a point. reading through it also instinctually felt different to the one newbie game i saw him in, where he was town.

This one for the worst?

I have a gut townread early game for how open/eager/involved he was being, but I've been noting over the past few days that his content and involved-ness has died down, and that when he's here, a lot of his posts are sheeping me, which is making me a bit wary on his slot. Like he isn't really pushing *his own* things, but sheeping a lot of the popular pushes.

Looking over his ISO again, I see some buddying of lego happening too.

He also did say he's having trouble keeping up with this game and it looks like he hasn't played much outside the newbie queue.

So tldr: I definitely see where you're coming from but I need him to be a bit more *present* and post some more before I firm up my read on him either way.

For sky, he had a lot of content in the past few hours, and you had a lot of content about him, and I haven't had a chance to process all of it and go back to check the points that are being brought up in context, but I'll get to that some point tonight or tomorrow.

[Sky_Paladin]

I don't think the screen wagon had fallen apart at all – from my count, both screen and jay were at l-2, and you chose to put jay at l-1 and get a claim out of him instead of voting screen. To me, the fact that you did this instead of voting who your stated preferred lynch was seems like you were fishing for claims, hence voting the person who hadn't claimed over the one who had.

I'd voted Screen and he'd been at L-1 for nearly 72 hours and not hammered before the Jay wagon emerged. OK, the wagon had not 'fallen apart' - it had certainly stalled. We are splitting hairs. Here's my post -

Sky_Paladin

I’d like a claim from Jay and then a little time for us to consider the plausibility of said claim.

Screen is my

preferred lynch by a small margin, followed by NM, and Jay is third.

But all three are in my initial scum reads.

I guess I'm not sure what you're trying to get at. Yes, I scum read Jay (past tense). Yes, I believe his claim. Short of something coming up to make me question the claim, I'm probably not going to vote there again today.
Yes, I scum read Screen (post tense and present tense). I'd be happy to lynch that slot. If I'm choosing between Jay and Screen, I'd lynch Screen. There was a chunk of time where Screen calmed down that I started to doubt my scum read, but as time went on it became increasingly that Screen was no longer invested in hunting scum - his MO was stay in the game. That kind of selfish mindset I think usually comes from scum (but not always).

Yes, I put Jay at L-1, but I was not fishing for claims. I straight up asked for him to claim because he was at L-2 and his counter wagon - Screen - had already claimed. Either of which I would be happy to lynch. So I decided "Let's advance the game state" and push for a hammer. TBH I expected Jay to claim Vt and get hammered which I would have been OK with, but he claimed town PR, so I was :V well maybe we can lynch Not Mafia now?

Instead we have a Mutant wagon so I'm like sigh guess I'll do the iso.

[Sky_Paladin]

To clarify on that last part – I've thought this through and I'm pretty sure that me not claiming anything is strategically a very good choice.

I am fine with that. My thoughts are that you look distressingly like a town PR that wants to counterclaim Jay without actually giving themselves away and if Almost50 spotted it right away, odds are everybody else did too.

In which case, you might as well claim and get the lynch done right today. That's the spirit behind my question.

[Sky_Paladin]

On a related note, Mutant is at L-1 and hasn't had the chance to claim yet.

I will be very upset with anybody who hammers before Mutant gets his chance to post.

[JaydragonKing]

How do you think the town power role goes about getting a lynch on that player without giving themselves away?

The way NSG went about it would surely get her NK'd on N1 if she's the Town RB, but I don't think she is.

That's why I proposed I could vote Jay myself if NSG managed to convince others to join in, but the way NSG went about it leads me to believe she's no TPR at all. Just an overly suspicious VT (and yes, I do TR NSG, and I think I know her VT play vs her PR play, having witnessed the two recently)

Almost actually spotted it as more of a suspicious VT claim though, Sky? Where did he say she was a PR?

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm struggling to understand the basis for NSG push for you on day 1, and the only reason I can think of is that she's counterclaiming you, but doesn't want to counterclaim you.

Almost50 did put a good light on it though explaining NSG position so I'm not like scum reading her for it.

[the worst]

Apologies for the more deader activity, I'm in two games currently (which is something I promised myself I wouldn't do while I'm still a n00b). This is my 2nd game on the site. FTR out of respect to town and the mod's activity requirements if my activity will remain poor/get worse I'll replace out.

Skitter I am sheeping a little while I don't feel like I can be strongly influential. Also I think you're town which makes you v easy to gravitate towards.

This game has been a lot more overwhelming than expected esp. while juggling another. I definitely lack the knowledge when it comes to setups playstyles etc. so other than reading IIOA into half the player list I'm not really sure how to contribute quite yet. Far from giving up, just currently have very little to contribute.

Lego is a gut scum lean so defs not buddying him this game I just think he's a nice dude.

Incidentally it's quite difficult to explain why I'm scumreading him. Probably because I'm finding his posts less substantial than I did during out last game together (T/T). It kinda feels like he's trying not to commit on as much as possible and keep a low profile. Being a touch verbose and dramatic is a part of his personality I think but there's just less intent to solve the game here.

Anyway pushing a scumread based on circumstantial crap on a newbie with 1 game's meta feels like a complete farce (unsubtle shade) so I don't have a lot of grounds to push my main scumread.

Other than this I'm getting a lot more town feelings. I'm very comfortable with A50 being town (his play gets increasingly towny even writing off the claim). As far as the claimed PRs go Jay has more of a feeling like they've claimed ERGO they don't have to put in effort. This read could be 100% crap and I also don't feel like its necessarily AI. Srceen for example has been a lot less ambitious after his gambitty day open but has stuck around and made some pretty neat prods.

[legoboyvdlp]

the way lego talked about / dealt with jay seems like scum talking about scum to me, and that's independent of my reads on either of them.

Interesting... what makes you think that?

Anyway, back for a few min before I go tomorrow... will answer anything that needs answered

[legoboyvdlp]

Wagon analysis. Will bear more interesting fruit day 2 once we have some flips. For now it's mainly interesting in looking for unexplained voting blocks or strange votes that could be investigated.

I've voted a few other times but usually unvote before the vc. I am over cautious sometimes...

[legoboyvdlp]

[quote="In post 891, the worst"]Apologies for the more deader activity, I'm in two games currently (which is something I promised myself I wouldn't do while I'm still a n00b). This is my 2nd game on the site. FTR out of respect to town and the mod's activity requirements if my activity will remain poor/get worse I'll replace out.

This game has been a lot more overwhelming than expected esp. while juggling another. I definitely lack the knowledge when it comes to setups playstyles etc. so other than reading IIOA into half the player list I'm not really sure how to contribute quite yet. Far from giving up, just currently have very little to contribute.

/quote]

Ditto ditto!

[Almost50]

I've voted a few other times but usually unvote before the vc. I am over cautious sometimes...

Don't worry about. People who are into VC analysis will always do the extra work of doing VCs for themselves rather than just ISO the mod.

[JaydragonKing]

Apologies for the more deader activity, I'm in two games currently (which is something I promised myself I wouldn't do while I'm still a n00b). This is my 2nd game on the site. FTR out of respect to town and the mod's activity requirements if my activity will remain poor/get worse I'll replace out.

This game has been a lot more overwhelming than expected esp. while juggling another. I definitely lack the knowledge when it comes to setups playstyles etc. so other than reading IIOA into half the player list I'm not really sure how to contribute quite yet. Far from giving up, just currently have very little to contribute.

Ditto ditto!

You forgot a piece there, my friend. I fixed it for ya.

[skitter30]

Apologies for the more deader activity, I'm in two games currently (which is something I promised myself I wouldn't do while I'm still a n00b). This is my 2nd game on the site. FTR out of respect to town and the mod's activity requirements if my activity will remain poor/get worse I'll replace out.

@nsg: so I had gotten this vibe from the worst and I think that a lot of the sheeping-ness stems from here and I'm not sure if it's AI tbh.

Skitter I am sheeping a little while I don't feel like I can be strongly influential. Also I think you're town which makes you v easy to gravitate towards.

Lol, yeah I tend to have a *presence* when I'm town.

So the thing is that sheeping me is a very, very, very easy place for scum to sit, because I'm townread atm by most people to some degree or another and I'm not that confident in my scumreads -> if I'm involved in a mislynch, I'm going to get more of the flak for pushing a mislynch than you for just sheeping. I'm fine with that; I'll take responsibility for any mislynches I ended up pushing. The thing I'm worried about though is that if you *are* scum, you have an easy out for avoiding responsibility for a mislynch - it's easy for you to say that you were just sheeping me.

Like I don't really care that you're sheeping me, and if that makes it easier for you to play the game and/or keep up with it, go for it. I do care that you might use that as an excuse later on to abdicate responsibility for your votes and pushes through.

Like does that make sense?

[the worst]

That definitely makes sense. I'm not sheeping for no reason, I'm sheeping because I think you're pushing a good agenda and I happen to agree with you mostly.

FTR I draw a line between sheeping due to disinterest/disengagement, and sheeping due to low confidence. I am aware of what I'm doing I'm just not coming up with any better conclusions rn. If I find you're scum later then I am equally accountable for getting sucked in and sheeping a scummy wagon!


[I understand there's parts of your point I'm not responding to but they're acknowledged. Mostly rn I intend to quantify my level of engagement ]

[Espeonage]

@Everybody

I'd like to play a game.

Let's say for a moment that one of Jay or Almost50 have in fact fake claimed a role that town already has, but town doesn't want to give themselves away by straight up counterclaiming them.

How do you think the town power role goes about getting a lynch on that player without giving themselves away?

throw shade