Final Two or Final Three?

For large social games such as Survivor where the primary mechanic is social interaction.
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Post Post #17 (isolation #0) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:56 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

I don't hate that.

I dunno. I feel like people will probably complain either way, because I know I have. I think F3 has the same "bring the goat" problems as F2, but in F2 they are magnified because it's just 1v1. Even if there's a goat in F3, it still can leave two Titans to battle it out.
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Post Post #24 (isolation #1) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:07 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

bump
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Post Post #25 (isolation #2) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:08 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

So, I did some fun calculations!

In Modern MS Survivor (since Hogwarts)
...
...F2 winners average 68% of the vote.
...F3 winners average 48% of the vote.

There have been
14 F2s
and
5 F3s
. (Eon was the first F3 in Modern times.)
ZERO times have the F3s had a no vote finalist. Froslass got 1 (14% of the vote), Garen got 1 (12% of the vote), Azmodan/Tracer both got 2 (28% of the vote), Dan got 1 (11% of the vote), and Theodora got 1 (10% of the vote).

The average difference between 1st & 2nd in terms of vote % across all games was 28.89%.
Broken down into F3 vs F2, F2s had a 35.15% difference on average, while F3s had an 11.36% average.

Also, for fun, I analyzed jury sizes:
Image

Here's the link if you want to see the data.

Some takeaways: wow, we have had way less F3s than I thought.
F3s are far and away more competitive than F2s in the site's history.
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Post Post #32 (isolation #3) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:04 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

In post 27, Vijarada wrote:A while ago you were defining modern survivor as post GoT haha. You're also wrong in saying that Dan got one vote: he got 2. It was 4-4-2 (his breaker won you the game)
Well as new things get added, things shift. I suppose GoT is a good starting point but we had GoT

then Season Finale was sort of a misstep

then we had Hogwarts and had a good streak from there out
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Post Post #52 (isolation #4) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:00 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

I tend to agree with BRO here. I think F3s are more competitive. And...if you're losing votes to the spoiler effect or because two good players are splitting votes and someone "undeserving" is winning...then the people who split the votes did not play optimally and shouldn't have brought each other to the end to split the votes.

I know I've actively considered that in games before. It's why I refused to work with Boudica in Civ, because our games were too similar.

I also don't think it has really happened that vote splits have caused issues. The only one of those five winners I can remember there being some controversy around re: split votes was Karass, but I think the people that didn't vote for her all had her as #2 and likely would've voted for her in a heads-up situation against either of the other two finalists anyway. I suppose there's some salt at Blackberry trollvoting Garen at FTC and giving Shaco the win. I dunno, I think it makes it even better to have to consider the calculus.

I'd also prefer a close vote and surprising result based on split votes to someone just blowing someone else out of the water and it not even being close, I think/
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Post Post #77 (isolation #5) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:05 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

In post 74, zoraster wrote:Do Jury members in most MS Survivor games get a chance to talk to each other about how they're going to vote?
Yes, up until finale starts. Then most mods tend to make them ask questions publicly then vote without having private convos.
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Post Post #79 (isolation #6) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:03 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

god dont say preferential ballot or we'll have drench coming in here screaming all over the thread
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