Team Mafia 2018: Mafiosi Revolution (Over)

User avatar
Ether
Ether
Lyrical Rampage
User avatar
User avatar
Ether
Lyrical Rampage
Lyrical Rampage
Posts: 4790
Joined: July 24, 2006
Pronoun:
Location: New Jersey
Contact:

Post Post #2925 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:29 pm

Post by Ether »

Day 2, Votecount 9


Now you've knocked that case down
Oh so obvtown
You just can't shut up
Oh, you're out there calling everyone dumb
Spending your time wasting mine
Thinking I'd accede to
Well the truth is, I don't need to
I can read you
You're scum
-[
I'm Done,
Jo Dee Messina
]
4 Cabd (Patrick, Firebringer, Kagami, UnaBombaH)
2 Aristophanes (implosion, Eddie Cane)
1 UnaBombaH (Kmd4390)

7 Unvote (Aristophanes, Cabd, Chara, Cheetory6, Ginngie, Spiffeh, Toranaga)


With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.
The deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-16 19:00:00), on Friday, February 16 at 7:00 pm EST.


User avatar
Cheetory6
Cheetory6
MS Painter
User avatar
User avatar
Cheetory6
MS Painter
MS Painter
Posts: 7403
Joined: September 21, 2014

Post Post #2926 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:30 pm

Post by Cheetory6 »

So Mathdino thinks that scum are more afraid of confirmed town Cabd than they are of anyone else in the game right now?
User avatar
Cheetory6
Cheetory6
MS Painter
User avatar
User avatar
Cheetory6
MS Painter
MS Painter
Posts: 7403
Joined: September 21, 2014

Post Post #2927 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:32 pm

Post by Cheetory6 »

And he also thinks that scum believes his claim?
User avatar
Ginngie
Ginngie
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Ginngie
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7749
Joined: April 1, 2017

Post Post #2928 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:33 pm

Post by Ginngie »

its kinda

wowie

but like

at the same time

sometimes people really do think it be like that sometimes ya know
Shoutout to PJ and Nahdia for making my amazing new avi :)

Following the previous dozen pages that cropped up in the last 10 hours I would like to congratulate Ginngie for being drunk with distinction. - Vi
User avatar
Kagami
Kagami
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Kagami
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7065
Joined: November 5, 2013

Post Post #2929 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:47 pm

Post by Kagami »

Hmmm, if we wait for tomorrow, then we don't get to lynch Cabd as a special scumday treat. :<

I'm going to assume mathdino hasn't been following the game terribly closely. Cabd is just hoping to get a Doc claim out of this.
User avatar
Kagami
Kagami
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Kagami
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7065
Joined: November 5, 2013

Post Post #2930 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:51 pm

Post by Kagami »

In post 2927, Cheetory6 wrote:And he also thinks that scum believes his claim?
To be fair, if Cabd were town, scum probably would believe the claim. They'd just never shoot him, nor would he really be confident he were shot even in the absence of a kill.
User avatar
Chara
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9847
Joined: October 16, 2017
Pronoun: it/its

Post Post #2931 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:53 pm

Post by Chara »

that's the problem, yes.
Cabd being confirmed town isn't exactly a problem for scum when a town Cabd doesn't really appear to be a threat. there are enough obvtowns in this game that should be known.
"Sibling," Farkran asked, starting slowly.
"The CORE is full of lasers, and Chemist1422's entire existence depends on her eye. If she looks into a laser, she will almost certainly die. Did you think about that?"
"Oh yes, my brother. I love thinking about that."
User avatar
Kmd4390
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
User avatar
User avatar
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
I lost a bet.
Posts: 14493
Joined: July 2, 2008

Post Post #2932 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:56 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

In post 2923, Cheetory6 wrote:KMD can you link me your best scumgame?
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=14190

Most of my best work was in the QT which I can't find but me vs reap day 1 along with his fake claim was all me.

___________

Cheet, I'm not sure Mathdino is assuming fear would be the reason for that shot. Killing confirmed town is usually a good move and they'd have no reason to assume cabd would like as town. Why is it so hard to believe he's a possible shot? I didn't think so at first either but considering theyd expect him to be confirmed town, it seems entirely possible.

Preview edit: Confirmed town isn't in the Lynch pool so it's kinda common sense that from a scum point of view they need to die at some point.
KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare
User avatar
Chara
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9847
Joined: October 16, 2017
Pronoun: it/its

Post Post #2933 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:59 pm

Post by Chara »

sure it's common sense, but a night 1 kill isn't just "take out confirmed town". there are other utilities of the scum kill besides removing an IC. taking out a strong town voice makes more sense. even if confirmed town, how much sway does Cabd have in the game?
"Sibling," Farkran asked, starting slowly.
"The CORE is full of lasers, and Chemist1422's entire existence depends on her eye. If she looks into a laser, she will almost certainly die. Did you think about that?"
"Oh yes, my brother. I love thinking about that."
User avatar
Chara
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9847
Joined: October 16, 2017
Pronoun: it/its

Post Post #2934 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:00 pm

Post by Chara »

i really don't know how to feel about it. the idea that Cabd would think this claim would clear them is a strange one from scum, too.
"Sibling," Farkran asked, starting slowly.
"The CORE is full of lasers, and Chemist1422's entire existence depends on her eye. If she looks into a laser, she will almost certainly die. Did you think about that?"
"Oh yes, my brother. I love thinking about that."
User avatar
Cheetory6
Cheetory6
MS Painter
User avatar
User avatar
Cheetory6
MS Painter
MS Painter
Posts: 7403
Joined: September 21, 2014

Post Post #2935 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:00 pm

Post by Cheetory6 »

I think scumCabd has no good options here with the roleblocker flip.
User avatar
Cheetory6
Cheetory6
MS Painter
User avatar
User avatar
Cheetory6
MS Painter
MS Painter
Posts: 7403
Joined: September 21, 2014

Post Post #2936 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:05 pm

Post by Cheetory6 »

Also feel like I'm going to emotionally exhaust myself getting frustrated trying to explain how wrong I feel that assessment is.
Especially when you're asking me for reasoning why I think Cabd isn't the nightkill when I gave like five reasons a page ago
-.-

I will say that I immediately knew the FN claim itself was fake because townCabd never outright claims friendly neighbor, and would probably do something like d2 innocent townie, given that it paints any potential roleblock on himself immediately.
Pretty sure 15 heads working together figure that out too.
User avatar
Ginngie
Ginngie
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Ginngie
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7749
Joined: April 1, 2017

Post Post #2937 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:05 pm

Post by Ginngie »

CAN WE LYNCH HIM LIKE FUCK
Shoutout to PJ and Nahdia for making my amazing new avi :)

Following the previous dozen pages that cropped up in the last 10 hours I would like to congratulate Ginngie for being drunk with distinction. - Vi
User avatar
Ginngie
Ginngie
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Ginngie
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7749
Joined: April 1, 2017

Post Post #2938 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:06 pm

Post by Ginngie »

I dont fucking care about anyone's cases

we can do that the next day

no one is going no where

so lets fuckin hurry up
Shoutout to PJ and Nahdia for making my amazing new avi :)

Following the previous dozen pages that cropped up in the last 10 hours I would like to congratulate Ginngie for being drunk with distinction. - Vi
User avatar
Kmd4390
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
User avatar
User avatar
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
I lost a bet.
Posts: 14493
Joined: July 2, 2008

Post Post #2939 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:12 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

In post 2933, Chara wrote:sure it's common sense, but a night 1 kill isn't just "take out confirmed town". there are other utilities of the scum kill besides removing an IC. taking out a strong town voice makes more sense. even if confirmed town, how much sway does Cabd have in the game?
That's one of many strategies, yes. So is killing confirmed town before they get confirmed.

___________

Mathdino says:
-he hasn't even analyzed since the flips and will give better reads later

-Almost50, RC, Eddie, and Bins should be able to back him up on Cabd being town by team composition even though his play is scummy. Tora, Firebringer, and Implosion should ask them. He's surprised Cheet doesn't see it.

-Tora is town by team composition

-Most of his reads come from about Page 60 when he was telling me to just lynch Mulch.

-when he's scum, confirmed townies are his priority NKs.
KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare
User avatar
Cheetory6
Cheetory6
MS Painter
User avatar
User avatar
Cheetory6
MS Painter
MS Painter
Posts: 7403
Joined: September 21, 2014

Post Post #2940 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:17 pm

Post by Cheetory6 »

In post 2939, Kmd4390 wrote:-Almost50, RC, Eddie, and Bins should be able to back him up on Cabd being town by team composition even though his play is scummy. Tora, Firebringer, and Implosion should ask them. He's surprised Cheet doesn't see it.
This isn't good reasoning to townread someone.
We don't know how many scum are on their team and it's gambler's fallacy to play that game.
If this was the reason for the townread you should have said so in the first place because dancing around it made what you were saying sound not real.
User avatar
Cheetory6
Cheetory6
MS Painter
User avatar
User avatar
Cheetory6
MS Painter
MS Painter
Posts: 7403
Joined: September 21, 2014

Post Post #2941 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:18 pm

Post by Cheetory6 »

In post 2939, Kmd4390 wrote:-when he's scum, confirmed townies are his priority NKs.
Sorry that he's bad at scum? Lol.
User avatar
Firebringer
Firebringer
Trail Blazer
User avatar
User avatar
Firebringer
Trail Blazer
Trail Blazer
Posts: 52620
Joined: June 28, 2015
Location: woofbringer
Contact:

Post Post #2942 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:49 pm

Post by Firebringer »

Rc has asked that we delay a lynch till other stuff happens

VOTE: Unvote
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
User avatar
Kmd4390
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
User avatar
User avatar
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
I lost a bet.
Posts: 14493
Joined: July 2, 2008

Post Post #2943 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:49 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

In post 2940, Cheetory6 wrote:
In post 2939, Kmd4390 wrote:-Almost50, RC, Eddie, and Bins should be able to back him up on Cabd being town by team composition even though his play is scummy. Tora, Firebringer, and Implosion should ask them. He's surprised Cheet doesn't see it.
This isn't good reasoning to townread someone.
We don't know how many scum are on their team and it's gambler's fallacy to play that game.
If this was the reason for the townread you should have said so in the first place because dancing around it made what you were saying sound not real.
I'm just now getting the full picture myself and it's not something that's gonna be allowed in this thread.
KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare
User avatar
Eddie Cane
Eddie Cane
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Eddie Cane
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 8638
Joined: February 7, 2017

Post Post #2944 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by Eddie Cane »

heu
User avatar
Chara
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Chara
it/its
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9847
Joined: October 16, 2017
Pronoun: it/its

Post Post #2945 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:13 pm

Post by Chara »

that does remind me:
Toranaga, would it be possible for you to relay any thoughts Almost may have on this game? just if he has anything interesting in general.
"Sibling," Farkran asked, starting slowly.
"The CORE is full of lasers, and Chemist1422's entire existence depends on her eye. If she looks into a laser, she will almost certainly die. Did you think about that?"
"Oh yes, my brother. I love thinking about that."
User avatar
Kagami
Kagami
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Kagami
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7065
Joined: November 5, 2013

Post Post #2946 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:32 pm

Post by Kagami »

That havingfitz slot is scum doesn't really do that much to change the prior on cabd being scum, if that's what Mathdino is trying to get at.

Spoiler: maths
Let's make a little table. I'm just going to put numbers in the third column that you may or may not disagree with.

[/header]
Probability of N scum PMsProbability that Cabd takes oneProduct
030.0%0%0
140.8%25%.104
222.3%70%.156
36.1%85%.052
40.83%99%.0082
50.05%100%.0005


Our prior for cabd being scum, then, is just the sum of the final column, which is 32.1%

But now we know that LLD picked a scum PM! How does that change things? We have to make a new table.

[/header]
Probability of N scum PMsProbability that Cabd takes oneProduct
00.0%0%0
158.2%0%0
231.8%50%.159
38.7%80%.07
40.83%99%.012
50.05%100%.001


For a sum of 24.1%. It's lower, but not radically so.

Now, I can understand disagreement with the "Probability that Cabd takes one" numbers, but I think I'm ballpark right-ish, and that the difference is not so high that it would outweigh the ridiculous nature of this claim.
User avatar
Kmd4390
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
User avatar
User avatar
Kmd4390
I lost a bet.
I lost a bet.
Posts: 14493
Joined: July 2, 2008

Post Post #2947 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:03 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

It has nothing to do with probability and how many scum roles they were likely to get. It gets more specific than that. That's why it can't be discussed here.
KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare
User avatar
Eddie Cane
Eddie Cane
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Eddie Cane
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 8638
Joined: February 7, 2017

Post Post #2948 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:06 pm

Post by Eddie Cane »

heallo i am home
User avatar
Eddie Cane
Eddie Cane
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Eddie Cane
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 8638
Joined: February 7, 2017

Post Post #2949 (ISO) » Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:24 pm

Post by Eddie Cane »

In post 2939, Kmd4390 wrote:
In post 2933, Chara wrote:sure it's common sense, but a night 1 kill isn't just "take out confirmed town". there are other utilities of the scum kill besides removing an IC. taking out a strong town voice makes more sense. even if confirmed town, how much sway does Cabd have in the game?
That's one of many strategies, yes. So is killing confirmed town before they get confirmed.

___________

Mathdino says:
-he hasn't even analyzed since the flips and will give better reads later

-Almost50, RC, Eddie, and Bins should be able to back him up on Cabd being town by team composition even though his play is scummy. Tora, Firebringer, and Implosion should ask them. He's surprised Cheet doesn't see it.

-Tora is town by team composition

-Most of his reads come from about Page 60 when he was telling me to just lynch Mulch.

-when he's scum, confirmed townies are his priority NKs.
As expressed, MathDino's thought process is something I find dumb when it comes to composition reads, its basing it on odds when on the big scale it's entirely possible multiple teams rolled 2-4 scum pms. I think Cabd could be town for ... different reasons, but he's also pinged me a lot.
In post 2906, Kmd4390 wrote:Firebringer,
Mathdino says cabd is town because he believes the claim but he understands the need to Lynch him. I'm less sure of the claim myself mostly because I'm not sure scum would shoot him but Mathdino says it makes sense to shoot someone who is about to be confirmed and who they can't block and I can't say I fully disagree with that. I think I'm leaning town pending scum's kill being stopped some other way.

He says unabomb and Aris are still town. I agree on Aris. Unabomb I want Eddie's thing sorted but I have a guess what unabomb is going to claim and I don't trust it.

He's got Eddie as cleared by the flip. I mostly agree. I'm not seeing Eddie scum anymore.

He's got ginngie also town. I had the same read Day 1 but mulch's flip makes me less sure.

He says don't rule out Kagami. Scum can be counterwagons to scum. I don't personally think that's the case here though. If Kagami is scum, his entire day 1 was hard bus mulch.

He's not sure on scum without intense reading and says sheep Ginngie.

I also have cheet as obvtown and Chara likely town. Tora obvtown.

Could see either way on anyone else.

Haven't gotten recent reads from North, Dave, or guiltylion. Will ask in PT.
kagami isn't scum. i'm aware scum can bus, but this wasn't that. he is the only player besides our hydra that scumread mulch at first, and before i subbed in he was the bastion of sanity the thread needed to not just lynch transcend. also, show me why tor is obvtown please for shits n giggles.
In post 2899, Firebringer wrote:“If I am wrong on one of those it’s implosion

Also I think there’s quite a bit of scum equity in Eddie slot that people aren’t considering”
-Cow
again, literal lmfao
In post 2882, UnaBombaH wrote:I'm now going to sleep, but I'm very much interested in Eddie's theory on scum!Una.

The best thing about all of this is that I was willing to townlock Eddie after Assemble flipped red, but the way he entered this day made me question his motives again..! :lol:
So especially this game-day, I can say that Eddie re-created his own pet-peeve - paranoid!Una. :o
i'll probably be casing you when i'm done this post, don't worry. if you seriously think i'm scum with mulch then i literally laugh at you.
In post 2870, Spiffeh wrote:Can people unvote to ensure that Eddie Cane can say all of his words?
i appreciate you and Patrick (too lazy to go quote him) btw! I will be posting after this, but I'm not going to claim a guilty on anyone or anything, just felt like posting some shtuff.
In post 2856, Chara wrote:Cabd's friendly neighbour claim that no one really believed? yes, definitely, scum would nightkill that.
i mean, from a scum pov if cabd is town then they would "know" it was true, and with their roleblocker eddie'd they couldn't do anything about it. its not a likely nor a good kill, but its a potentially possible one. it isnt a ridiculous notion. though, myself and Kagami are basically ICs at this point so that kinda makes it redundant, its not like this is a game where there's no clear town and low info kills are useful.
In post 2843, Cabd wrote:Ya'll are prolly gonna mislynch me for my gambit working, whatever.

I'm actually bulletproof; fake softed then fake-harded friendly neighbor to draw the nightkill; we ended up on day two with a scum lynch (despite my poor read thereof) and no night kill, so yeah.

Anyone who thinks I willingly signed up to be scum with mulch's team is like.. beyond insane given the history between him and I.
i believed this at first but someone said you don't know your teammates until after you pick pms? which is it? cause if you pick scum pms after seeing the team then i actually buy this. otherwise, considering one of your teammates flipped scum, i find it very disingenuous seeing as you'd know how picking scum works regardless...
In post 2841, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 2839, Firebringer wrote:And unabomeh he says ur just obv town and didn’t pick up on crumbs
Ok, townbinning you.
lmfao
In post 2839, Firebringer wrote:Rc says he can’t talk about chara because he is factoring teams composition into it
And unabomeh he says ur just obv town and didn’t pick up on crumbs
you can talk about some parts of this, he can at least hint what he's getting at
In post 2837, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 2799, Firebringer wrote:Rc says unabomeh is obv Town
Can you ask RC to go any more in depth? :]
Does he know I've been crumbing my role all game? :]

I also think that Eddie should humor me, since I'm willing to humor him:
@EDDIE - ASSUME I AM AN INVESTIGATIVE ROLE - WHO DO I CHECK N1?
... if its watcher me or kagami, if its something targeting a scumread ... a scumread? lol. and ftr, if you've crumbed i haven't noticed it. have not gone back in your iso to crumbhunt as of now.
In post 2853, Cheetory6 wrote:
In post 2843, Cabd wrote:Ya'll are prolly gonna mislynch me for my gambit working, whatever.
You really think you were the nightkill?

P-Edit: You pick a rolePM, not a team composition.
egos are a powerful thing.
Locked

Return to “Team Mafia 2018”