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Post Post #349 (isolation #0) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:05 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

All caught up.

Screenplay's comments early in the phase about putting a player at L-1 and they will then auto hammer, followed up by some comments that attempt to justify that, concern me.

Later in the phase, they posted a strange list of reads that included the mod, and then also indirectly referred to Creature as 'null'. When these reads were questioned, provoked a vote on Creature who had just been prodded.

To me a vote on one of Screenplay's supposed scum reads would have been more natural; this looks like a reactionary vote attempting to divert focus to an afk player (that is less likely to defend themselves) rather than a real effort at scumhunting.

VOTE: Screenplay

L-1
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Post Post #355 (isolation #1) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:29 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Other posts that interest me behind a tldr wall.

Spoiler:
UNA's 142 vote on a claimed town PR with no counter claims concerned me at a strategic level.
The post itself did not ping me as scummy. However given that this is a semi-open setup that will become increasingly more open as the game goes on, this kind of claim appears too dangerous for scum to have made.
Anybody sitting down and thinking about it for more than about ten seconds would realise this.
So I think this says interesting things about UNA's alignment and I'm more inclined to believe trigger-happy town than scum-trying-to-get-a-cheap-mislynch at this time.
Almost50's troubling posts later on aside, I'm inclined to believe the claim for now.

I initially strongly liked Mutant's 147 post and they abandoned it pretty much immediately as soon as Almost50 posted their previous crumbing efforts. It came shortly after UNA's post and feels like an opportunistic vote - but - there was some effort in the post initially so I don't really believe this is the case. Probably indicative of town!mutant.

Almost50s vote on mutant feels bad because he's directing town to do various things. These kinds of posts always make me feel like its scum trying hard to do what's best for town or straight up appeal to emotion. I don't like it. He doubles down in 163 but later switches to Screenplay.

I enjoy Lego's 249. I appreciate the wagon analysis and an attempt to understand the motivation behind why players do things. Strong town post.

Subsequently I disagree with Skitter's 265 and do wonder the motivation behind it.

I like UNA's 271 and it very strongly captures everything that I feel wrong with Mutant's 147. I'm town reading UNA from this post.


Reads

Town
Almost50 - currently believing claim. Some posts concerning.
Skitter - a lot of posts that are actively engaging with other players. Probably indicative of town.
Espeonage - a lot of posts that are actively engaging (and disagreeing) with other players. Posts feel like they are advancing game state.
Lego - I like a lot of Lego's posts - they are actively looking at the game state and trying to assess the motivation behind players actions. Almost certainly town.
UNA - I liked UNA's analysis of Mutant and I haven't really seen anything bad from UNA all game. Probably town.

To Sort
Montosh - a lot of posts but nothing really attracted my attention. Needs ISO.
theworst - no posts pinged me as scummy, but has not elevated themselves to town yet.
mutant - null here but leaning town. I do like the post they made but generally agree with everything UNA wrote about that big wall post. Other content is generally town though. SO null because undecided, not because no presence.

Scum
Creature - I'm concerned that Creature was active very early in the phase but didn't throw down an RVS vote and their posts seemed to talk about the game rather than engage with players. That looks like scum MO to me.
not_mafia - a number of posts but they all feel very distant and not really engaging at all. Holistic playstyle feels indicative of somebody not really trying to become one with the town block.
Screenplay - as noted. Also response to being at L-1 is to panic and attack the most recent vote instead of claiming or doing anything town alignment indicative.
Elmo - doesn't really exist. See Not mafia. Also interestingly voted not_mafia in RVS then shortly after switched away. Many posts with no real content.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #2) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

It’s more natural to vote someone you have a higher confidence in being scum.
Then, why didn't you vote one of your stated scum reads?
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Post Post #359 (isolation #3) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:35 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

It seemed to me that you voted Creature at Skitter's prompting, and you only switched to Lego later when a wagon emerged.

Could you please restate your reads, on all players this time, and give some indication as to why you feel that way about those players?
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Post Post #360 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Oh, that is L-2.

Since I am sure it will come up, I'll clarify. I was not reaction testing - I genuinely believed that was an L-1 vote, and I just miscounted because there were a number of votes between the last vote count and my own.
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Post Post #380 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:28 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Screenplay/Jay - let's be civil, name-calling leads to modkills.

Screen
Math. A pretty good town player.
Math is not a player in this game.

Your list of reads is a little difficult to parse. Can you confirm for me if this is what you meant?

Scum:
Jay
Lego
Sky

Null:
A50
Elmo
Montosh/Mutant (presumably both since you have them mixed up)
Not Mafia

Town:
Espeonage
Skitter
UNA
Worst

You included Sky/Reaper and Jay/Creature twice each so I've taken the liberty of consolidating them in the same slot. You at least didn't switch your alignment read based on the player, which would have been interesting ^_~
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Post Post #381 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Skitter
I'm pretty sure for Creature in particular actively choosing to ignore the game while being active onsite elsewhere *is* the scumtell. Like I'm pretty it's not that Screen happened to pick Creature, one of the group of AFK players, so much as he thinks Creature ignoring the game makes him more significantly more likely to be scum.
In my catch-up I skimmed through and I seemed to recall somebody saying that Creature was generally absent all over the site and that him flaking this game was therefore not AI. I may be mistaken, but that's the reason why I feel a vote against Creature for the reason of being afk is poor. I do think that Creature's initial posts were holistic and the lack of RVS vote despite being present raised flags.
I'm not sure what you're asking me to clarify here? I rather disliked that Lego post because it continued a general pattern of waffling from him.
You said that Lego was waffling and pushing votes on afk players; I disagreed because I feel that Lego's voting analysis is on point. YMMV, I enjoy players explaining why they think certain things.
I wondered why you picked up Lego for this; at the time Lego was voting for Screenplay and your post says he was pushing an afk slot. That's not my interpretation of it.
Could you please clarify your position on Lego at this time?
And both replacements coming in and wanting to vote / voting Screen is part of the reason why I'm getting this overall vibe of complecancy that's making me kinda wary of the wagon. Like it's an easy push to make for both of them to make, and a lot of people are just vote-parking the wagon and it's feeling kinda off/stale/complacent at this point.
Which of the votes against Screen do you dislike and why?
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Post Post #388 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:22 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Thanks for that response Skitter.

It looks like I missed that point re: Creature in my catch up. In that event I could abide by a policy vote from Screen against Creature for targeted inactivity.
My main hesitation is that I think I might be conflating new-ness with scumminess.
I'll look into that and get back to you with my further thoughts.
people replacing in are complacent with it. Like there's too much consensus, and it feels wrong in this gamestate for this many people to be OK with it.
My main thoughts on Screen are that the slot has gone through a bit of a melt down in the last 24 hours and that's always interesting to see. I do think that the votes against Screen are largely justified. If Screen is scum, I am imagining Lego as the scum counter wagon - when I was reading catch-up I seemed to recall votes appearing for Lego at around the same time.

I am not against a quickhammer on day 1; in every game I can ever recall playing, the first wagon of the day was usually on scum. I don't enjoy the prospect of Not Mafia hammering before Screen gets a chance to claim however.

I'm somewhat invested in the fact that he twice townread Math? Anytime somebody is caught out with their reads it insta-points to them having fabricated their reads, and lynch-all-liars is one of the hardest policies to argue against. I'd like to have more than this though. One factor I'm adding to this is his comments about planning to hammer anybody who got to L-1 and not attribute any malice or reasoning to it. To me this looks like a message that this player is the scum traitor, and that he wants some way of communicating to his buddies so that they don't accidentally shoot him. So yes, I think this implies that scum did not recruit traitor!screen.

Note that Not Mafia has exactly the same MO (hammer at L-1) and he is also in my scum reads list ^_~ However, NM hasn't been caught getting his reads wrong - twice.
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Post Post #389 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:25 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

@Screen


If there was one player you could get a flip on right now, who would it be and why?
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Post Post #428 (isolation #9) » Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:24 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Skitter
There's like no resistance to it, and a whole bunch of people I find null or scummy seem to want it, and people replacing in are complacent with it. Like there's too much consensus, and it feels wrong in this gamestate for this many people to be OK with it.
So now we have Screen at L-1 and this is the point where I expect to see movement. It seems you're the only one against it so far.

IMO Town at this point would rather claim than 1v1 though.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #10) » Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:25 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

To be fair Elmo's recent comment about Screen being 'not bad scum' is deeply unsettling.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:05 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Just a thought: If Srceen is scum then that means Jay is probably the scum's counter wagon and hence FoS on skitter and the worst. (Doesn't mean they are definitely both scum but I do think they should be looked into and pressured over it).
That was my first thought but I think it's incredibly unlikely the scum team would throw their entire game in the bag just to save Screen (assuming team of Skitter/Worst/Screen). The sudden emergence of Jay as the designated counter wagon with those three on it isn't meaningful at this point I think. All of these votes are somewhat credible - Skitter has made their misgivings clear and iirc Worst said something about it as well.

Would appreciate an explanation for Espeonage's vote though.
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Post Post #549 (isolation #12) » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:35 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

@Not Mafia


Earlier you gave the impression that you would hammer if a wagon was at L-1. You haven't really done anything this phase except fail to follow through.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Not Mafia

Could you please clarify your position?
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Post Post #551 (isolation #13) » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:49 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Oh, you are right. I seem to have mis-attributed something somebody else said to you in my skim read from earlier.

Well, now you are here, what do you think about Screen/Jay/et al?
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Post Post #553 (isolation #14) » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:57 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

“Et al” means “and others”.

Who else is in this game that you care about one way or the other?
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Post Post #555 (isolation #15) » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:25 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I’m asking you to share your reads on the player base, as I looked through your Iso and see a large stream of non content posts.

Probably my intent was obvious and it feels like you are being deliberately evasive.
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Post Post #645 (isolation #16) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:14 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I think interactions around Screen are probably more interesting than Jay, particularly Skitter/Not Awful.

The whole interaction between Jay/Screen suddenly going for a 1v1 is super strange though and I do feel strongly there is scum between the two of them. I am not averse to a lynch on either slot.

I would be keen for a Not Mafia lynch at present as he is deliberately avoiding meaningful discussion. This is a clear distinction from passive lurking and actively evasive behavior.

Probably if I was the vig I would hit that slot tonight.
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Post Post #663 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:15 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Jay

Thats L-1.

I’d like a claim from Jay and then a little time for us to consider the plausibility of said claim.

Screen is my preferred lynch by a small margin, followed by NM, and Jay is third. But all three are in my initial scum reads.
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Post Post #715 (isolation #18) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:23 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

UNVOTE:

I need to look at Mutant closely and see what I think of that supposed scum claim. I'm away most of today though so for now

VOTE: Not Mafia

Screen has had his time in the sun and the meltdown while close to lynching was interesting, but, he seems to have mostly settled down now. I'd like to shine a light on NM and see what his shadow looks like.
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Post Post #780 (isolation #19) » Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:19 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Basically a prod dodge post. I have a job interview in about 48 hours and I need to focus for that. I'll be around and able to read posts but don't expect any walls from me until then.
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Post Post #831 (isolation #20) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:31 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Looks like I have some time today so I'll be going through my reads again. In particular I am interested in sorting Mutant as I think I earlier had them at null and now they are at L-1 so a decision one way or the other is required.

Probably need a claim from Mutant but at this stage I am not interested in hammering.

Note this is our third wagon iirc if we have another town PR come out we may be better off just mass claiming and lynching from among counterclaims/VTs.
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Post Post #835 (isolation #21) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Actually I am really concerned about Una's vote of Mutant. I'm looking at Una's ISO now and it looks fairly opportunistic with lots of trivial reads with little follow through. I'll give more in depth shortly.
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Post Post #842 (isolation #22) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:02 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

This is inherently bad play.
Could you please be more specific.
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Post Post #849 (isolation #23) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:16 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

by the way, i'm skeptical towards the idea that the pr claims will "resolve themselves".
I presume the argument is that since the game is semi-open, if the claims are fake, this will become immediately obvious when scum accidentally kill the real roled town.
e.g. the maximum number of town roles in the game are:
- Goon Cop
- Roleblocker
- Tracker
- Bodyguard
- Vigilante

Because Innocent Child was not declared, it's not in the game. With 13 players, 2 scum + 1 traitor, that leaves a minimum of three vanilla town slots, one of which is claimed by Screen presently.

Scum know exactly how many roled town there are, and therefore, how many VT's there are. However, town will become aware of this mid-game once the number of players gets too low to support the claims.
EG if we have no other claims reported, and all the claimed players are alive once the player base is down to 8 players, then there are three scum among the six not-roled town, and with Screen's VT claim, there are two scum in the remaining five slots. At the time, town demands a mass claim and lynch counterclaims (hint - scum will all claim VT) and we lynch among the vanilla town. At this point scum are forced to hit A50 and Jay to keep the vanilla town lynch pool as large as possible.

The more picks scum made at night 0, the more difficult their late game will become. They need to kill off the town PR's as soon as possible to have a chance in mid-late game.

That's why people are saying the night roles will 'sort themselves out'. If they're still around after about night 3 then scum probably lose.
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Post Post #851 (isolation #24) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:37 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

The possibility does exist.

While scum know the number of roled town, they don't know what those roles are. So when they fake claim, there is a chance they claim a role that town actually has.

That is why I am inclined to believe Almost50 and Jay's claims. They did so not knowing what roles are already out there and may have been counterclaimed. That's a big risk. If they were scum fake claims, it would have been safer to claim VT. That is why I I put more faith in Jay and Almost50's claims than Screen's claim.

Now those claims are out there and have not been counterclaimed. We know there are at least two town power roles because of the setup. If there are only two power roles, then scum could now safely fake claim those power roles. However, the roles they would have to claim are strictly governed by what's left -

- Goon Cop
- Roleblocker

- Tracker
- Bodyguard

- Vigilante

The remaining three roles have abilities that must be reported and are powerful roles that, if they are in town hands, must be dealt with by scum in one way or the other. So if somebody claims day 3 while they are at L-1 that they are the vigilante, and have not shot, or that they are the goon cop/tracker and only have results that are on obv town, they are probably scum fake claims.

It is by no means guaranteed. The claims are not automatic town clears. However the fact that they came out and have not been counter claimed, and they claimed first, is good enough imo to trust that the claims are legit. And if they are not, then both players blind guessed correctly a 3/5 chance. I would not commit my game to a dice roll, and I feel confident in saying most players would not do so either.
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Post Post #855 (isolation #25) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:56 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

let me ask you this – you were scumreading jay before the claim, yes?
Yes, I had scum read Jay for their previous slot - Creature. I hadn't really seen anything from Jay to improve their position, and the 1 v 1 against Screen seemed unneeded and strange. Nothing from Jay really strikes me as town, and their performance since being out of the lynch's way seems disinterested and vague. The claim is the only reason I don't have them in my scum pile, and if anything were to come up to question that claim, I'd be happy to vote there again later.
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Post Post #858 (isolation #26) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:06 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I think because players (myself included) shy away from lynching claimed town PR's on day 1 before we have other evidence (e.g. vote count analysis, night results, etc) to use against the claim. Revisit this topic day 2 with some night results and a flip or three and there might be more traction.

Screen was my preferred lynch but both Screen and Jay (along with NM and your predecessor) were in my 'probably scum' pool. I thought at the time Screen's behavior was more scum AI than Jay but I still saw Jay as scummy and would not have been upset with a lynch at that time.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #27) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:42 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Wagon analysis. Will bear more interesting fruit day 2 once we have some flips. For now it's mainly interesting in looking for unexplained voting blocks or strange votes that could be investigated.

Progression of votes. Players who have replaced out have had their names filled in with the new players for ease of reading.

RVS
Spoiler:
♥ legoboyvdlp (1): Srceenplay
♠ Srceenplay (2): mutantdevle, skitter30
♦ mutantdevle (1): legoboyvdlp
♣ the worst (1): Almost50
♥ Not_Mafia (1): northsidegal
♠ Montosh (1): the worst
♦ northsidegal (1): Espeonage
♣ Almost50 (1): Montosh
♥ TheYankeeReaper (1): Not_Mafia

♠ Not Voting (3): JaydragonKing, UnaBombaH, Sky_Paladin


150
Spoiler:
♥ legoboyvdlp (1): Srceenplay
♠ Srceenplay (2): skitter30, Montosh
♦ mutantdevle (2): legoboyvdlp, Almost50
♣ Almost50 (3): Espeonage, UnaBombaH, mutantdevle
♥ Sky_Paladin(2): Not_Mafia, northsidegal

♠ Not Voting (3): JaydragonKing, Sky_Paladin, the worst


179
Spoiler:
♥ legoboyvdlp (1): Srceenplay
♠ Srceenplay (1): Montosh
♦ mutantdevle (3): Almost50, northsidegal, skitter30
♣ Almost50 (2): Espeonage, UnaBombaH
♥ Sky_Paladin(1): Not_Mafia

♠ Not Voting (5): JaydragonKing, Sky_Paladin, the worst, mutantdevle, legoboyvdlp


225
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (3): Montosh, Espeonage, legoboyvdlp
♠ mutantdevle (2): Almost50, northsidegal,
♦ Sky_Paladin(1): Not_Mafia
♣ Northsidegal (1): Srceenplay
♥ UnaBombaH (2): skitter30, the worst

♠ Not Voting (4): JaydragonKing, Sky_Paladin, mutantdevle, UnaBombaH


276
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (4): Montosh, Espeonage, legoboyvdlp, northsidegal
♠ Sky_Paladin(1): Not_Mafia
♦ NorthSideGal (1): Srceenplay
♣ UnaBombaH (3): skitter30, the worst, Almost50
♥ mutantdevle (1): UnaBombaH

♠ Not Voting (3): JaydragonKing, Sky_Paladin, mutantdevle


350
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (5) (L-2): Montosh, Espeonage, northsidegal, Almost50, Sky_Paladin
♠ Sky_Paladin (1): Not_Mafia
♦ UnaBombaH (2): the worst, legoboyvdlp
♣ mutantdevle (1): UnaBombaH
♥ legoboyvdlp (2): skitter30, Srceenplay

♠ Not Voting (3): JaydragonKing, mutantdevle


425
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (6) (L-1): Montosh, Espeonage, northsidegal, Almost50, Sky_Paladin, JaydragonKing
♠ Sky_Paladin (1): Not_Mafia
♦ UnaBombaH (2): the worst, legoboyvdlp
♣ mutantdevle (2): UnaBombaH, skitter30
♥ JaydragonKing (1): Srceenplay

♠ Not Voting (1): mutantdevle


450
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (5) (L-2): Montosh, northsidegal, Almost50, Sky_Paladin, JaydragonKing
♠ Sky_Paladin (1): Not_Mafia
♦ UnaBombaH (1): legoboyvdlp
♣ mutantdevle (1): UnaBombaH
♥ JaydragonKing (4): Srceenplay, skitter30, the worst, Espeonage

♠ Not Voting (1): mutantdevle


501
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (6) (L-1): Montosh, northsidegal, Almost50, Sky_Paladin, JaydragonKing, Espeonage
♠ Sky_Paladin (1): Not_Mafia
♦ mutantdevle (1): UnaBombaH
♣ JaydragonKing (3): Srceenplay, skitter30, the worst

♥ Not Voting (2): mutantdevle, legoboyvdlp


575
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (5) (L-2): Montosh, northsidegal, Almost50, JaydragonKing, Espeonage
♠ Sky_Paladin (1): Not_Mafia
♦ mutantdevle (1): UnaBombaH
♣ JaydragonKing (4): Srceenplay, skitter30, the worst, legoboyvdlp
♥ Not_Mafia (1): Sky_Paladin

♠ Not Voting (1): mutantdevle


725
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (3): Montosh, northsidegal, JaydragonKing
♠ Sky_Paladin (2): Not_Mafia, Espeonage
♦ JaydragonKing (1): UnaBombaH
♣ mutantdevle (2): Almost50, skitter30
♥ Not_Mafia (1): Sky_Paladin

♠ Not Voting (4): legoboyvdlp, Srceenplay, mutantdevle, the worst


800
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (2): Montosh, northsidegal
♠ Sky_Paladin (1): Not_Mafia
♦ JaydragonKing (1): UnaBombaH
♣ mutantdevle (2): skitter30, JaydragonKing
♥ Not_Mafia (1): Sky_Paladin
♠ northsidegal (1): Almost50
♦ Almost50 (1): Espeonage

♣ Not Voting (4): legoboyvdlp, Srceenplay, mutantdevle, the worst


Current votes
Spoiler:
♥ Srceenplay (2): Montosh, northsidegal
♠ Sky_Paladin (1): Not_Mafia
♣ mutantdevle (2): skitter30, JaydragonKing, UnaBombaH, almost50, the worst, Screenplay
♥ Not_Mafia (1): Sky_Paladin
♦ Almost50 (1): Espeonage

♣ Not Voting (4): legoboyvdlp, mutantdevle


I'm interested in strange voting patterns - players that regularly vote together (blocks), players that change their vote frequently (wagon hopping), players that join wagons late (scum getting in on a mislynch), players that vote park and make no effort to secure a lynch (pretending to be active), empty unvotes (town are always looking to improve their vote, scum have to fake it) and any other thing that jumps out.

Note that even though we've had three players at L-1 during the phase, for most of the game votes have been spread out over four+ players. I think that is highly unusual - players usually seem to congeal around two or three slots and for us to be all over the place like this likely indicates the lack of a strong town block. This is super strange to me given that we have two claimed town PRs (Jay and Almost50) who are confirmed town until counterclaim. You two should be working together because you have no reason to doubt the other persons claim at this stage....right?

Spoiler:
northsidegal - No interesting vote interactions. Voted on Screen early on and stayed there even after the wagon dismantled. Vote is not really AI as we haven't seen NSG make a vote of her own, presumably as she's still catching up (just finished now) and I'm interested to see where she does vote. Cut many times by strongly implying she's going after Jay, long after the wagon fell apart, which I think is meaningful.

jaydragonking - Initial votes afk because Creature slot. First vote on to Screen wagon (which then emerged as counterwagon), and then on to Mutant.
Players who wagon hopped with Jay - Una, Almost50, the worst. Less AI as Screen was a counterwagon to Jay.

Screenplay - vote switches a lot. Initial votes on Lego, then NSG, then Lego, then 1v1 to Jay. Latest vote puts Mutant at L-1. Jay countervote not AI although the manner in which it happened was odd - request for 1v1 and players obliged.
I am suspicious of these votes and the latest vote for Mutant. Screen was super active while they had votes against them, and since the activity has switched away from Screen, has taken it easy.

the worst - several empty unvotes. Most votes alongside Skitter and semi-regularly Almost50, big chunks of time with votes on nobody. Was NOT on Screen's wagon, but WAS on Jay's wagon. Suspicious and need to examine Worst posting history at this time and see Worst/Skitters justification for this.

Espeonage - Early votes for claimed town PR ( ... ) which is probably scum. Was on both Screen and Jay's wagons for large periods of time at critical moments e.g. putting them at L-1. Now back to voting uncounterclaimed town. No real effort to advance lynch. Probably scum for this.

Not Mafia - vote parked Sky and done nothing all game/made no effort to interact with town or advance lynch. Players who have spent any amount of time voting with NM are Espeonage and NSG briefly.

almost50 - has been on all the wagons, but also spent some time on a few other players. Had been pushing for a mutant lynch earlier in the phase so this later shift to the wagon is consistent and probably AI of town, claim notwithstanding.

mutant -
This troubling vote block at 150:
♣ Almost50 (3): Espeonage, UnaBombaH, mutantdevle
Concerns me.

Mutant empty unvoted while he was at three votes and failed to vote on the Screen wagon and called everybody on it sheep.
Has failed to have a vote for almost the entire game. Probably indicative of scum MO.

UNA - Initial vote on A50, then empty unvote, then votes for mutant. Did not join Screen wagon (threatened to hammer but failed to do so), voted for Jay (L-2), now voting for mutant. Would have expected some comment when they revoted Mutant how they'd always been scumreading this slot etc etc. ISO is short and all over the shop. Feels like scum. Strange interactions with Not Mafia.

Skitter - Players Skitter has voted for: Screenplay, Lego, mutant, UnaBomber, Jay. That's a lot of vote hops. Most votes with Worst/Almost50. MMmm.
I'm hard pressed to pick an alignment for Skitter based on voting history. There are a lot of votes but from the surface those votes appear accountable.

Lego - Empty unvote after RVS troubles me. Was early on the Screen wagon which made it a wagon but then unvoted/switched to Una, now empty unvote. A lot of time voting for nobody. This vote history is troubling.

Montosh - Vote parked on Screen the entire game, appears disinterested and unimpacted by others. Likely indicative of a player feeling disengaged/helpless. Could be scum traitor.

And with that I think that's everyone. So...


Feels like Espeonage/Una could be a scum pair.

I'm not convinced Screen is town even with the claim. Voting and posting history seems cloudy. A couple of my early town reads (Lego, Esp) now less convincing.

Summary:
Almost50 - confident town.
northsidegal - While I do like the entry, I want to see more than a focus on our claimed PRs.
Sky_Paladin - posts are sparse but excellent, the very pinnacle of what town should aspire to.
Jay - I like the claim but the rest is bad.
Not Mafia - player does not really exist. Deliberately trying to avoid engaging with players. Player feels less isolated than Montosh - probably scum traitor.
Espeonage - Not really trying to do anything and strangely pays attention to NM. Scumpooled.
Screenplay - As stated above, probably still scum.
the worst - some concerning interactions. I'm not confident that I'd lynch this but I'd like to revisit on day 2 with some flips and see where worst lines up on those votes.
mutant - probably scum. Am now more interested in hammer. However we have quite some time left so I'm not interested in doing that right now.
UnaBombaH - see Espeonage. Feels like there's links between these two players. Would like a flip here or on Esp.
skitter30 - I think probably town based on several good quality posts iirc and voting history, while sporadic, appears engaged. This is probably town mo.
Montosh - My pick for scum traitor. Slot needs to exist. Isolated players are unlikely to be scum pairs though so undecided for now.
legoboyvdlp - Concerning. I initially town read Lego for a number of good posts although the vote history is weak.

So -
Probably Town: Almost50/Jay/Skitter
Undecided: Northsidegal, the worst, lego, Montosh
Probably Scum: Screen, Espeonage, Una, Mutant, Not Mafia

So that's five players who I think are scum and I only get to pick 3, ugh.

In the world where Screen is scum - I'm probably picking Espeonage and Una as his buddies.
In the world where Mutant is scum - unsure. Probably still Espeonage and Una, but not Screen.
In the world where Espeonage is scum - probably scum with Una and either Screen or Mutant.
In the world where Una is scum - Espeonage and Not Mafia.
In the world where Not Mafia is scum - Espeonage and ???

Espeonage is coming across as scum in all of my imaginary teams so I think that's probably where I'll ISO next.
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Post Post #869 (isolation #28) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:45 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

@Everybody


I'd like to play a game.

Let's say for a moment that one of Jay or Almost50 have in fact fake claimed a role that town already has, but town doesn't want to give themselves away by straight up counterclaiming them.

How do you think the town power role goes about getting a lynch on that player without giving themselves away?
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Post Post #876 (isolation #29) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:01 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

NSG
right, so what made you choose jay over screen?
I didn't - I chose Screen, who was at L-1 for quite some time, and then voted Not Mafia because I felt that player slot needed (and still needs) pressure. When I came back, the Screen wagon had fallen apart and Jay was at L-2. I felt that Jay was behaving very strangely for a player who had gone from just about to secure their preferred lynch to being the main lynch candidate, and that was in line with me scum reading the slot from earlier. So I voted and pushed for a claim and, well, here we are now.
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Post Post #877 (isolation #30) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:01 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Sigh well if it's that obvious I might as well say it.

NSG are you counterclaiming Jay?
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Post Post #886 (isolation #31) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:57 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I don't think the screen wagon had fallen apart at all – from my count, both screen and jay were at l-2, and you chose to put jay at l-1 and get a claim out of him instead of voting screen. To me, the fact that you did this instead of voting who your stated preferred lynch was seems like you were fishing for claims, hence voting the person who hadn't claimed over the one who had.
I'd voted Screen and he'd been at L-1 for nearly 72 hours and not hammered before the Jay wagon emerged. OK, the wagon had not 'fallen apart' - it had certainly stalled. We are splitting hairs. Here's my post -

Sky_Paladin
I’d like a claim from Jay and then a little time for us to consider the plausibility of said claim.


Screen is my
preferred lynch by a small margin, followed by NM, and Jay is third.
But all three are in my initial scum reads.
I guess I'm not sure what you're trying to get at. Yes, I scum read Jay (past tense). Yes, I believe his claim. Short of something coming up to make me question the claim, I'm probably not going to vote there again today.
Yes, I scum read Screen (post tense and present tense). I'd be happy to lynch that slot. If I'm choosing between Jay and Screen, I'd lynch Screen. There was a chunk of time where Screen calmed down that I started to doubt my scum read, but as time went on it became increasingly that Screen was no longer invested in hunting scum - his MO was stay in the game. That kind of selfish mindset I think usually comes from scum (but not always).

Yes, I put Jay at L-1, but I was not fishing for claims. I straight up asked for him to claim because he was at L-2 and his counter wagon - Screen - had already claimed. Either of which I would be happy to lynch. So I decided "Let's advance the game state" and push for a hammer. TBH I expected Jay to claim Vt and get hammered which I would have been OK with, but he claimed town PR, so I was :V well maybe we can lynch Not Mafia now?

Instead we have a Mutant wagon so I'm like sigh guess I'll do the iso.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:01 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

To clarify on that last part – I've thought this through and I'm pretty sure that me not claiming anything is strategically a very good choice.
I am fine with that. My thoughts are that you look distressingly like a town PR that wants to counterclaim Jay without actually giving themselves away and if Almost50 spotted it right away, odds are everybody else did too.

In which case, you might as well claim and get the lynch done right today. That's the spirit behind my question.
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Post Post #888 (isolation #33) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:04 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

On a related note, Mutant is at L-1 and hasn't had the chance to claim yet.

I will be very upset with anybody who hammers before Mutant gets his chance to post.
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Post Post #890 (isolation #34) » Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:09 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I'm struggling to understand the basis for NSG push for you on day 1, and the only reason I can think of is that she's counterclaiming you, but doesn't want to counterclaim you.

Almost50 did put a good light on it though explaining NSG position so I'm not like scum reading her for it.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #35) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:16 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Espeonage

E Z
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Post Post #920 (isolation #36) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:51 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Mutant last online -
Last visited:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:12 am
That is quite recent and Mutant's last post clearly indicates he believes players at L-1 should claim. The skeptic in me thinks this is him hoping the wagon will magically go away, while the optimist believes people can sometimes just be busy.

Intent to hammer in 24 hours if Mutant has not claimed.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #37) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:52 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I have my interview in 30 minutes so I'll respond to Skitter when I get back. I just wanted to pop that up first. I go!
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Post Post #990 (isolation #38) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:21 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

There are a couple of players you could policy vote for low currency value to town.

At this point I would arguably say Montosh is a better choice for a policy lynch. What particular reason did you pick NM?
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #39) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Mutant and Screen are the only ones close to wagons and neither of them are worth lynching.
I'm not at all convinced this is true.
monty If you had to shoot one player RIGHT NOW who would it be and why?
Same question to you?

If it was me, I probably would pick Not Mafia for his deliberate refusal to engage meaningfully with players making him a liability; we can't have him in LYLO so he has to die earlier. However it's more because it's not alignment indicative - he's done nothing to look town, so choosing between him and a bunch of other grey player slots is fraught with danger. So I'd be shooting him as a service for the town (aka 'Taking out the trash') but not necessarily expecting him to flip scum.
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Post Post #1008 (isolation #40) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:20 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Espeonage
Why you answering Montosh's question for them?
That's my answer to The Worst's question. Montosh is free to answer how they see fit. I provided my answer so that Montosh (and others) can see the standard of response I expect, and also so that I can take credit/be held accountable if I wish to be, should NM flip overnight.
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Post Post #1009 (isolation #41) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:21 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

outed PRs have a responsibility to push the game properly. So for example, not muddling by playing scummy and drawing their claim in to question, and also not derailing the game or devolving it in to a sheep the universal town read.
This however is true. As Almost50/Jay have claimed they are the closest things to confirmed town we have, and thus should be acting as town leaders. I'd intuitively like to go along with them, but I haven't really seen any leadership from these slots yet.
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Post Post #1015 (isolation #42) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:28 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Lego
I think I have skitter, Paladin, Srceen and me as confirmed town.
What do you think about Almost50 and Jay?

You only have mutant as scum?
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Post Post #1016 (isolation #43) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

ebwop

Oops I misattributed that list of reads to Lego, didn't realise I was being cut by worst.

So first part - A50 and Jay is for Lego.
Second line is for Worst - only one scum read? Really?
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #44) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:37 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I'm town because I am reasonably active, make posts that advance the game state, have reads that are consistent and improving over time, engage with players, and am clearly trying to solve the game.

OTOH I do that as scum too so I by no means believe players should be town clearing me, but it means I tend to confirmation players with shitty posts and activity.
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #45) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:37 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

"confirmation players" -> confirmation bias against players
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #46) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

It also means I tend to town read players who play/act in the same way I do, which is a weakness I am aware of but struggle to combat. The hardest scum for me to find are the ones right in the middle of poor post content and good post content - players like Espeonage/Lego/Skitter are right in my blindspot, and if any of those are actually scum, I probably won't catch them out.
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Post Post #1035 (isolation #47) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:46 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Not Mafia

I'm undecided on Mutant at this stage but agree this is a better place to consolidate than Espeonage at this time.
The fact he's suddenly town blocking you and you're answering questions for him is ringing alarm bells for me
That is true and fair.

Is this directed to me -
I'll accept the terminology difference but it's still a bit curious for me how you're pulling him back to town lean now
Not sure what you mean. Can you please clarify?
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Post Post #1046 (isolation #48) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:59 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

@Lego
The 'that is true and fair' was addressed to The Worst. I personally hate it when player x defends player y. Player y should defend themselves because if player x does it, should either slot flip scum later down the track, the other slot now looks bad. So rather than argue with Worst for being wrong, I accepted they were right. Me posting that didn't help you make your answer (which still hasn't appeared, actually) and now that I think about it was just wishful thinking.

Why NM over Espeonage -

Espeonage has made their opinion on certain player slots (e.g. A50) quite clear, and they have been fairly active during the game so far. If I don't have a clear picture on who is scum, then my next best option is to lynch the least valuable contributor, since at the very least if we mislynch we're not losing anybody that matters. Espeonage, bless his little misguided heart, even though he is probably wrong about A50 is at least active and his position is fairly clear. I feel like Espeonage is more useful to town, while NM is not.

The decision is easy in the end.
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Post Post #1051 (isolation #49) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:06 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

My last game with Not Mafia was waaaay back in 2015 when we were scum together. He was a lot more active then but his posting style is still similar. Since it was nearly three years ago I'm not sure if we can take much from it.

NM has literally dozens of games under his belt and is probably a good player. Either he has a strategy for playing this way (e.g. mafia traitor) or he has mentally checked out of the game. If so, I expect he would have replaced though.
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #50) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:10 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

P-edit: This is the way N_M has played all the games I shared with him since I joined the site.
At what stage does he evolve to a useful member of town? I could be persuaded to spare him if there's a promise of value down the line.
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #51) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:20 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Skitter/NSG;

I am undecided on Mutant. My preferred lynch was Screen, then Not Mafia, then Jay. Jay has claimed so he is not on my list for today and there doesn't appear to be any real interest in a Screen lynch.

I think there is a good argument that Mutant is scum. I could lynch that slot even though I am not specifically scum reading him. Some of his posts/votes are troubling and I don't think he is a shining example of town.

But out of my choices, since Jay and Screen are currently pencilled out, I'm now interested in NM, specifically as he is happy to make empty content posts, and supposedly unrelated people jump in to defend him. I'm deeply bothered by players who think that NM's conduct is desirable to have in the game because scum gain advantage from this style of play.

Let's be clear, I am not demanding a policy lynch of NM. But since there is some interest going his way, I would love for more votes to go to his wagon so we can see if he does anything interesting with a fire up his ass that IS alignment indicative.

Until now, nobody seemed to care. Now people care, but the ones who spoke up are in his defense and that is, as I mentioned to Worst a moment ago, quite anti-town.

What gives?
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Post Post #1068 (isolation #52) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:23 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Actually;
Skitter/NSG/A50


Let's say we're at LYLO and the only players left are NM, Sky, and (insert your name).

Sky and NM are countervoting.

Who do you vote and why?
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Post Post #1071 (isolation #53) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:25 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

@Worst
Two pages ago you said you had alarm bells when I answered a question directed at Lego.

Do you not see why I might be concerned when players don't care about Not Mafia at all until there's votes on the wagon, and that is only to defend NM instead of letting him post for himself?
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Post Post #1076 (isolation #54) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:28 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Who are your scum partners?
In this ""hypothetical scenario""
Let's say that NM or myself are the non-recruited traitor, so we don't know who our mafia buddies were, and vice versa.
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Post Post #1093 (isolation #55) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:38 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

To some degree Worst as well, but;

NSG
what's anti-town about defending someone i townread?
It's anti-town because if NM flips green down the track, you will get town cred, but you might actually be scum.
It's anti-town because if NM flips red down the track, players who defended him will become suspicious, even if they are actually town.
It's anti-town because if you flip red down the track, NM will be suspicious because scum defended him.
It's anti-town because if you flip green down the track, players will be less inclined to think NM is scum because why would they kill somebody who is town reading their slots.

Defending other players is not scummy behavior, but it IS anti-town. Players should be able to defend themselves and be accountable for their posts.

If they can't, then maybe it's because they're scum.

That all said, I do agree that policy lynching a slot on day 1 is a good option if we haven't got a better scum read, but the scum read should be the first option.
Why did you ask this question?
I want to highlight why allowing an alleged non-alignment indicative lurker to coast through to endgame is bad for town.
In what world would you want that in LYLO over me?

Scumworld imo.

@Worst

Oh, colour me surprised. In every game I've played, traitor never knew who the goons were. I thought the recruit mechanic in this game was to allow the goons/mafia to know each other.
Remember, I replaced in to this game and since I am town, did not read the mafia roles as closely as you appeared to have :V
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #56) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:38 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I mean

LOOK AT ALL THIS ACTIVITY

FROM TWO VOTES ON NOT MAFIA

ARE YOU NOT CONCERNED?!
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #57) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:46 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

@Skitter/NSG/A50


That's so strange that you all gave the same answer.

To me if the situation was (your name) and NM countervoting, I'd hammer NM.

Skitter/Sky/NM -> lynch NM
A50/Sky/NM -> lynch NM
NSG/Sky/NM -> lynch NM

Since I highly doubt you three are the entire scum team, maybe I am wrong on this one.

Does anybody else think this is bizarre or am I just off target.
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #58) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:48 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Because I didn't consider roles when I posed the exercise.
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Post Post #1123 (isolation #59) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:00 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

let me ask you this – if you think i'm scum who's been lurking until now just to defend my buddy, why have none of the wagons that have been on l-1 for many of the past days ever gone through to completion? If not mafia is scum, he's a known quickhammerer as either alignment (and yet he hasn't this game), and if i was scum with him, why haven't i come up with some reason to intent someone yet, unless you're calling the scumteam right now?
hnnnnnnnnnnn

That is a really solid point. One that I don't have a good answer to.

My thoughts are a bit of a mess now because I was so sure it was about to be NSG/Worst/Not Mafia as the scum team. But I think now I just let my confirmation bias and emotions get the better of me. I'll take a short break and re-evaluate.
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Post Post #1136 (isolation #60) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:54 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Screen

I don't really have a good response to NM not hammering players when he could have so I'm going to leave it as probably he is town after all, and move away from that. I can more easily attribute players disagreeing with me because I am flat out wrong than I can that a whole bunch of mafia players suddenly decided to defend town. Therefore the logical result is -> NM is probably town (and likely everybody who defended him - Worst, A50, NSG - are also town, reinforced with A50 being uncontested town PR).

I'm still undecided on Mutant. I'm really not impressed with his apathy and decision not to do anything unless the pressure goes away. Contrast with Screen who is the total opposite - raging with votes against him, and now pretty much absent while he is not in the focus.

Of the two, I put more value in Mutant being town because he has a number of lengthy posts and has engaged more actively with the player base. Therefore, I think I'd like to restart the Screen wagon and see what happens.

VOTE: Screenplay
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Post Post #1159 (isolation #61) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:26 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mutant

Continual stalling tactics despite pressure being off suggests not really committed to finding a better lynch option. Combined with my previous misgivings this is enough to tip my hand.
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Post Post #1160 (isolation #62) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

That is
L-1
.
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Post Post #1168 (isolation #63) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:50 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

There's probably not enough time left today, but I wish I could have a closer look at NSG.
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #64) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:47 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I could consider a vote on Espeonage - I remember voting him earlier for his repeated attacks against A50, but I think I had a vca earlier that picked him as a good vote option.

Be aware that if Esp is away, he will not be able to role claim so we could mislynch a town PR, so I'm a bit cagey about doing that.
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Post Post #1191 (isolation #65) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:06 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

VOTE: Northsidegal

Please explain this sudden desire to get off the Mutant wagon and attempt to flashwagon.

This also goes for TheWorst.

I'm not really interested in Montosh/Not Mafia at this stage.
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Post Post #1206 (isolation #66) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:37 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

This feels alignment informed
What an interesting choice of words you have used.

Could you please go in to some more detail on this.
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #67) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:39 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Two down, one to go.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #68) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:40 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I think it's
probably
NSG/TheWorst/Screenplay but it miiiiight still be Skitter.

I'll be back in a little bit to expound on why this is so.
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Post Post #1363 (isolation #69) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I'm still too busy to clarify, but my thoughts are at this point:

I 100% believe Espeonage and Jay's claims and will never vote there for the rest of the game.

Worst is probably unrecruited traitor who blatantly crumbed to NSG his alignment, and early this phase confirmed that he was the same alignment as NSG, which was kind of him.

Jury is still out on Screen/Skitter. My money is tentatively on Screen at this point.

More details at 11, Jane~
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Post Post #1365 (isolation #70) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:07 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I could also accept worst as goon with no mafia day talk because his behavior was divergent at the start of this phase from the previous one. Need to determine if worst was crumbing to skitter or not.
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Post Post #1366 (isolation #71) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:08 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

feels like i'm going up against a scum block.
Go on
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Post Post #1367 (isolation #72) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:10 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

A brief ISO of Worst shows he is massively favoring NSG and Screen.

So I'll call the scum team Worst/NSG/Screen at this point and wall post why it's game over when I'm finished work.
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Post Post #1390 (isolation #73) » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:52 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Woop don't need to write my giant wall post.

Humbly request a vig on NSG and a Roleblock on Screen.

In the event I die overnight for some reason please read Worsts ISO for all the justification you ever need to see why Elmo/NSG and Screen are scum buddies.

If he somehow flips green then I don't know, my main belief in scum!NSG and scum!Screen hinges on scum!Worst. So if I'm wrong there I need to completely re-evaluate my position.
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Post Post #1426 (isolation #74) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:41 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I'm just running past to say

Not Mafia is probably scum for quickhammering before Jay could claim his results

have not read the thread and will be back in an hour
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Post Post #1429 (isolation #75) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:14 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Did you claim on day 2? Because I can't see it.
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Post Post #1431 (isolation #76) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:16 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Oh I see. You said 'went to' instead of blocked. this post
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Post Post #1435 (isolation #77) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:31 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Okay then. We'll all list the three people we think is possible scum. Then we elect to Lynch the person found in the most lists. I will go first.
I am super okay with this strategy.

Not_Mafia
NorthSideGal
Screen
Montosh (because nonexistent)

Players I'm not really interested in lynching at all
Jay
Skitter
Lego
no lynch
This is a terrible idea; if we no lynch today it's still LYLO in the next day phase so we gain nothing unless Jay miracle-blocks the scum hitter.
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Post Post #1438 (isolation #78) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:48 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

And suddenly Not Mafia, who has not given two shits about the game, wants a no lynch after quick hammering.

Consider my vote on you, except it's not because we are in MYLO and I want to give Montosh/Lego/Screen a chance to exist and see if they can bring something new or interesting to the table.
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Post Post #1449 (isolation #79) » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:54 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I am going V/LA for the next 72 hours. When I will return I may or may not claim cop with a guilty on NSG as crumbed here and followed up here. I may or may not also have visited Not Mafia last night.
if we're no-lynching, it is the strategically correct play to not discuss your reads.
We are not no-lynching. I will make it a 1v1 if I have to, but we are lynching today.

So please out your reads <3
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Post Post #1552 (isolation #80) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:18 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I return.

I'll now claim vanilla town. This was a reaction test because I wanted to see what NSG would do as I was undecided on her alignment; I was leaning scum but became concerned I had massive confirmation bias because I strongly believed NSG/Worst as a scum team due to Worsts heavy buddying and statements from NSG that I believed were harmful to town. However I did not really see what I wanted to see. I also did not expect a hard counterclaim to my soft claim so that's annoying.

I regularly crumb town power roles when I am vanilla town (you may remember my comment that if I was the vigilante I would hit Not Mafia, on day 1) in an effort to buy the night kill and rarely fake claim an innocent on a lynch that I know in my deep heart of hearts is wrong.

Late day 1 I felt confident that Worst/NSG were a scum pair but felt that due to the deadline rapidly approaching I could not risk pushing a wagon there; an undecided town with little time often quicklynches and that outcome massively favors scum. I felt that my preferred lynches of Not Mafia/Screen were not being taken up and that scum!NSG was pushing the Espeonage lynch, which was consistent with scum!NSG/scum!worst. So I decided to setup a gambit that I could execute day 2 if the night results did not contradict it.

The result was that Espeonage psuedo-claimed a guilty on Worst which was consistent with my strongly believed scum team so I decided to roll with it and save the guilty for day 3 once we had a scum flip on Worst. However that did not happen so I was ??? I cannot gambit a hard confirm guilty because now I cannot be sure that my read on NSG was simply confirmation bias based on an actual wrong read.

Then I was going away for three days and I didn't want town to hammer a no lynch that would put us in LYLO with a dead Jay who was, in my mind, the only confirmed town at this point. If scum believed I was goon cop then they might hit me even if no lynch eventuated. So I decided to go ahead with a soft-gambit because I didn't expect a cop counter-claim when that cop also didn't bring anything new to the table (no town clears, no guilties, no hard claim to counter, sigh). Oh well.

I also expected players to have gone ahead and analyse other players posts, and wanted to see more activity from Montosh/Lego to help discern alignment. EG both Montosh and Lego have posted and made some effort to solve the game, as have Skitter and NSG.
Concerningly, Jay (my strongest townread) has pretty much sat on his hands this phase and that worries me a lot. Screen/NM haven't really done anything except vote no lynch and take shots at my claim which is interesting because only scum would know if the claim was legit, except for NSG, who hasn't come out screaming that I'm wrong and is more interested in waiting to see the motivation behind it.

So I can see this coming from NSG!town, and I can also see this coming from scum!Not Mafia.

@Skitter

My post here:
It also means I tend to town read players who play/act in the same way I do, which is a weakness I am aware of but struggle to combat. The hardest scum for me to find are the ones right in the middle of poor post content and good post content - players like Espeonage/Lego/Skitter are right in my blindspot, and if any of those are actually scum, I probably won't catch them out.
Your post here:
So the thing with sky is that I kinda like their posts, and I want to townread them, but I'm aware that I have a tendency to townread a specific posting style regardless of alignment because I like the posts and the thought process behind them, and sky's posts are like right in that blindspot.
These quotes look very similar. What are you trying to achieve by this?

At this stage I am intending to vote Not Mafia and push for that as my preferred lynch this phase.
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Post Post #1558 (isolation #81) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:34 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

I mean, this is kinda what I expected you to say given how the Lego claim shook out but if you're town this is like ridiculously anti-town because you just outed the cop
That's false because, as highlighted sufficiently by NSG, my claim was not a hard claim and Lego outed themselves for no reason. The rest of your post seems to be all WIFOM so I'm just going to handwave dismiss it as the rest of your post seems to hinge on the idea that I was not committed to a lynch this phase, when, uh, every single post I had made in this phase was about lynching and not no-lynching.

VOTE: Not_Mafia
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Post Post #1568 (isolation #82) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:13 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Sky, please give me/us your opinion on Lego's sadly poor results.
I think they are basically terrible and his crumbs are awful. However, I think a REAL town cop would be more honestly likely to come forward with useless information than to come out with a miracle guilty. That's why even though I crumbed

Town was severely hamstrung by the quickhammer by Not Mafia in the previous day phase. So I can't hate Lego for not posting in day 2.

cut

Skitter I'll reply in detail shortly. But basically it hinges on there's no reason for me to, as scum, fake gambit when scum!me could have just hammered no lynch and won the game by killing town!Jay and mislynching whoever in the next day phase.
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Post Post #1570 (isolation #83) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:23 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

This simply has no basis in reality, does anyone here sincerely think Sky could have easily gotten a mislynch tomorrow?
If theoretically we no lynched this day phase, and scum!me killed town!Jay, then I would only need one wrong vote from Montosh/Lego/Skitter on town!Not_Mafia, iirc at least one of which are willing to do so.
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #84) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:40 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

@Jay/Montosh/Lego/NSG


That is L-1 so please don't casual vote.

I have not given up. I'm just curious to see if Screen will join the wagon or not.
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Post Post #1577 (isolation #85) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:42 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

That is L-1 so please don't casual vote. * effective L-1.

I'm presuming there are two scum votes on my wagon (NM/Skitter at this point) with Lego's as town. So if any other town votes, that is GG.
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Post Post #1589 (isolation #86) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:21 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Jay - I am on skype at work so I'll get to it shortly.

But basically it boils down to I'm confident that it's Not Mafia or Screen. I am no longer scum reading NSG. I'm guessing the third scum has to be Skitter.
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Post Post #1599 (isolation #87) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:45 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

GG scum wins.

Sorry NSG I guess you should have counterclaimed harder :/
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #88) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:45 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Sooooooo

Montosh/Not_Mafia/....Lego?
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Post Post #1602 (isolation #89) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:47 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Welp I'm honestly not sure at this point because I did not see Montosh/Jay hammering like that lol.
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Post Post #1605 (isolation #90) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:50 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Well

I think for sure Screen and Not Mafia.

The third I honestly have no idea but I guess it has to be Montosh for that turn-about on Not Mafia.
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Post Post #1611 (isolation #91) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:53 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Well if you are town

Then Montosh/Jay/???

Maybe Lego?
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Post Post #1621 (isolation #92) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

No no. You attacked NM and then insta-hammered after Jay voted.

So Montosh is confirmed scum.

I'm going to guess Jay because he was posting a lot to try to let scumbuddies know he was around to hammer.

But with those two as a team I legit don't know who the third would be. Possibly Lego because he counterclaimed me so badly ^_~ And would explain why Jay wanted to talk more about the claim.
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Post Post #1635 (isolation #93) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:04 pm

Post by Sky_Paladin »

"Who was it that said Scum wouldn't Gamble and fake claim to jeprodize their entire game on a dice roll?"

That was me .v.
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #94) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:05 pm

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"Idk. Seriously though we nearly got screwed there. If Sky hadn't fakeclaimed I'm pretty sure I'd have been lynched."

How so? I didn't see any real lynch options this day phase.
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Post Post #1644 (isolation #95) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:16 pm

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Or why A50 decided to protect him ...
^^this

When I was thinking that Jay might be scum, I thought "oh scum just hit A50 and lied" because I couldn't see any world where A50 would cover Worst.
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Post Post #1645 (isolation #96) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:19 pm

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On a related note I finally finished up my skype conversation but now my wife is here so I'm still afk!
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Post Post #1653 (isolation #97) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:36 pm

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And you guys knew Sky was lying!town which is why you didn't believe his claim, sigh.
True only if NSG is not scum ^__~

Which admittedly does not appear to be the case.

Ultimately it did not pay off and only served to get me lynched. So in hindsight it was a dumb move and I'm pretty disappointed. I honestly thought that if I framed it in such a way - that it wasn't a hard claim - that it would still have the strength of a gambit-guilty and I'd still be able to back out if it was wrong. Oh well.
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Post Post #1654 (isolation #98) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:37 pm

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Actually

They would have known from my pressure on Not Mafia, probably. Activity from Jay/Montosh did not really appear until I was already hating there.

Sooooooo

I think probably NSG is the third scum. So the claim appeared legit until Lego counterclaimed. Is my guess. And that's when it fell apart.
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Post Post #1657 (isolation #99) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:41 pm

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I probably still would have pushed NSG/Screen/Not_Mafia scum team in the next day phase, even if we flipped scum!NSG today, so I'm not blaming Lego for this loss; I would have killed us in LYLO regardless this day phase or the next one if I was still around.
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Post Post #1663 (isolation #100) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:13 pm

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Sky threw the game.
I highly disagree, I pushed Not Mafia for the entire game and nobody cared. You could have shot him night 1, incidentally.
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Post Post #1667 (isolation #101) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:18 pm

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I think probably scum MVP was Jay who pulled off an incredibly bold claim that completely blinded me. I didn't even consider the possibility that he might be scum until coming back from V/LA, and that seemed pretty far fetched. Montosh mainly lurked out, but Not_Mafia should have been dead by the start of day 2, and town deserved the loss after failing to capitalize on that scum quickhammer.

Town MVP probably is Skitter or NSG and it's hard for me to pick. Both of those players were actively trying to solve the game and not afraid to break heads. Skitter was looking at Montosh iirc and NSG was the only player publically (and correctly) questioning Jay.
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Post Post #1672 (isolation #102) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:24 pm

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A speedy no lynch would've been the correct move today
I argue that a lynch of Not Mafia would have been the correct move, as Jay would have 0 excuse for still being alive D4, AND we'd be down a scum ^_~ But I would have trainwrecked us in the next day phase because I would have pushed hard for a Screen lynch :/
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Post Post #1677 (isolation #103) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:28 pm

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Ultimately, the cop counterclaim fiasco did town in.
This sadly is true :C I'm still in denial about it but I'm just X__X
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Post Post #1685 (isolation #104) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:33 pm

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I think you modded perfectly; there were no screw up's and tallies were available for a good chunk of the game. The balance was fair I think, and the flavor added a nice touch :)
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