Rocky Horror Picture Show - players suck, game over

[northsidegal]

Hey all, excited to actually be in a cult game.

I'm probably not voting anyone who self-votes, by the way.

VOTE: mutant

[northsidegal]

haven't we already figured out that voting for immunization doesn't actually guarantee people as town, because cult leaders can just recruit them before the vote goes through?

with that in mind, why are people still voting as if it works?

[northsidegal]

Anyways, if people want to immunize me, then I recommend if anyone has a PR that would allow them to make sure I'm not recruited, they should use it NOW, and we can move on. That way the last minute recruit thing won't work, and they'll be forced into recruiting me NOW if that's what they want to do.

don't like this, feels kind of like railroading both the immunization and any anti-recruit prs onto yourself while we're still pretty early in the game.

[northsidegal]

NSG, voting someone into being immune is the only way we progress the game, which is the only way we progress towards a winnable gamestate.

Obviously I know that, but what i'm saying is that we should probably put some kind of alternate strategy into it over just the basic "vote people you don't want recruited", because we know that that strategy doesn't work.

[northsidegal]

But this game is literally only scum/third party.

i mean, we're

basically

town here, as far as i understand it.

also, i'm not sure how relevant everyone saying how or who they would recruit is.

[northsidegal]

i think inferno looks townier than anyone else who was in that conversation.

[northsidegal]

why is "pause" even a phase? i assume something must interact with that specifically, because otherwise it seems like everything would just be dealt with instantly, no?

[northsidegal]

I sort of think basically everyone(except myself, and MAYBE Varsoon, of course) is approaching this game in a very stupid way, talking about shit like towniness and pointing out single things as suspicious, when we

KNOW ALMOST EVERYONE IS FUNCTIONALLY TOWN AT THIS MOMENT

.

Unless you're just making a comment about the current numbers of the setup, i disagree – i think there's a difference in mindset between when people are town and when people are scum, be it mafia or cult. For example, jay has barely mentioned anything about being a survivor yet, despite having a history of playing town as if he were a neutral survivor. That seems like the kind of strage thing that might be indicative of something.

How do you think we should be approaching this game right now?

[northsidegal]

Spotted the cult master attempting a dumbtell as a deflection mechanism

i was reading that as more of a joke about the "reverse" lynch, hence the wink. i think i made a joke along the same lines the last time i played a game with reverse lynching.

[northsidegal]

wouldn't a single wagon give us better odds on either getting a potential double recruit or scaring the cults away from recruiting that player in the first place? like, if there's one wagon then a cult will only choose to recruit there if they think that the other cult hasn't already done so, but if there's two then from the perspective of one cult there's always the chance that the other cult recruited the other wagon, making recruiting on-wagon a safer decision.

It seems to me like a better strategy for getting immunizations on non-recruited players is to build a wagon on one person to l-1 and then somehow (either one person or we as a group) come to a decision that we either hammer that person or we switch to someone else on a flashwagon.

[northsidegal]

Like, let's say we have a single wagon. each cult leader will only want to recruit there if they a) believe that the immunization will go through and b) believe that the other cult hasn't yet sent in the recruiting action.

with that in mind, having two wagons seems almost entirely worse. most scenarios i could imagine with two wagons seem like it would just be better for town if we only had one major wagon. like, let's say both cult leaders choose to recruit from the wagon(s). if there's only one wagon, then if they both recruit there then the size of all cults in the game has 100% only increased by one player. if there are two wagons and both cult leaders choose a wagon randomly to recruit from, there's still the chance that the size of all cults only increases by one, but it now becomes equally likely (if i can do math) that the size of all cults has increased by two.

[northsidegal]

with one wagon it also seems to become more likely that both cult leaders choose to avoid the wagon out of some kind of prisoner's dilemna-type fear that the other leader has already recruited there, meaning that the immunization might actually do something. with two wagons i think that they'd feel safer recruiting from one of them, decreasing the chances that an immunization does something.

[northsidegal]

I'm not saying my "survivor speech" cuz this game is literally full of them. It would be redundant at that point, North. And using that as a tell against me? For shame, North. For shame.

I wasn't expecting you to talk about how you would be playing like a survivor, but i at least expected some kind of humorous reference or joke about it. Sure, it's not the most incriminating scumtell ever conceived, but i think it's something to go off of in what seems like a largely aimless day one.

pedit – guys, remember that we're supposed to send messages to the mod by pm (and not address him in-thread).

[northsidegal]

i'm pretty sure it was another joke, but it looks like the irony was lost on you.

[northsidegal]

Shouldn't you want them targeting you if you can't be recruited? Waste the action and all that.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: nancy drew

[northsidegal]

stop spoiling that game, i'm still reading through it!

[northsidegal]

Feels like we're just rolling the dice for now unless we can coordinate the flashwagon strategy.

[northsidegal]

What do you suggest?

[northsidegal]

Isn't it optimal for everyone to claim to be recruitable though, because then the cults might waste their recruits?

[northsidegal]

The plan is to switch to someone else, right? because i get the feeling that cerebus isn't the best immunization target.

[northsidegal]

I was under the impression that the cults couldn't change their target after they sent it in.

Getting the immunization on somewhere where it's relevant still seems important to me.

[northsidegal]

- be aware that once you submit an action, there is no taking it back

[northsidegal]

Even if we're not able to outpace two recruits with the immunization alone, that doesn't mean we should waste it.

[northsidegal]

I think everyone should vote nancy drew in their next post. Unlikely to have already been recruited, unlikely to be recruited.

[northsidegal]

I quoted it two posts above 574, something you responded to.

I could vote a50, venmar.

[northsidegal]

So, can anyone advise me as to whom to base my vote on?

If you mean "who to trust when deciding who to vote", just follow me

If you just mean who to vote, i'd VOTE: almost50

[northsidegal]

I think everyone should vote nancy drew in their next post. Unlikely to have already been recruited, unlikely to be recruited.

If I'm "unlikely to be recruited" then wouldn't that be a wasted vote? Wouldn't it make far more sense to immunize someone who can actually help the "unrecruited" win?

What i meant was that if the cults hadn't already used their recruits, i doubted they would use them on someone who was still yet to post, even if that person was the immunization vote.

also, even just having someone get immunized is more important than making sure the immunization is on someone the cults would want to recruit (not to downplay your skill or anything, you just hadn't posted at all yet)

[northsidegal]

Varsoon had a pretty good argument against voice messages in the last game i played with him. they're probably a bad idea.

[northsidegal]

Tarot upick.

[northsidegal]

I don't know what i expected would happen. More, i guess.

Wow okay so there are no vigs. What are we supposed to do about our cult reads then, just not immunise them?

If there aren't vigs there's probably some similar role to deal with cults that maybe doesn't involve killing. Could also be that vigs holstered.

[northsidegal]

I feel like we should all start treating this like more of a normal game of mafia. if every phase goes by with as little public information as this, we need actual associatives and wagons to try to sort people, and more in-game conversation to potentially notice a difference from day to day if someone's been recruited.

[northsidegal]

I mean, i don't get why you asked vecna. Do you have reason to believe that he would know any more than the rest of us whether or not the immunization succeeded?

@cerb, is that vote something you can elaborate on?

[northsidegal]

VOTE: inferno

[northsidegal]

VOTE: porkens

don't really have much to add, annoyingly (i feel like my play this game has been disappointing). something i've been thinking about is whether or not i would be able to tell if the cults began in the less active players or if the cult leaders / members were actively influencing town. still not sure as of yet.

[northsidegal]

It doesn't seem likely that there was some hidden deadline that we missed - seems more likely that some kind of action caused the switch.

[northsidegal]

By the way, if only one cult recruitment went off in the first phase, that presumably means that either both cults targeted the same player, one cult targeted someone who's immune, or someone's action stopped a cult recruitment.

[northsidegal]

Of note is that dreal's "announcements" aren't in his mod color. Can we really trust them as mod info? Seems like some kind of communicator role could exist, especially given the "loud voice" flavor.

[northsidegal]

Did you get prodded, timewarp, or did you just recheck the thread just now?

[northsidegal]

And had you been checking the game before that pm?

[northsidegal]

It's not really a mod lie at all. He said that "a voice was heard", and then he relayed a message. There's nothing to imply that the message came from him. The opposite is true, in fact – there's a lot to imply that it

didn't

come from him.

[northsidegal]

thanks!

reading the content of the messages, from the information the person is giving they're either being sent by an informed townie or a cultist (or someone just lying about knowing anything, but that means probably still cult). i also think i know how to go about figuring out who the messages are being sent by, but i'm not sure if it's the best idea to do that just yet. it would be something to do, however.

[northsidegal]

Disclaimer: NSG did bring up a good point though about the announcements not necessarily being mod confirmed. If that's the case then I say it's more likely to be coming from an informed townie, because I can't see scum being told how many PRs prior to game start.

Yet again, even THAT would be o far fetched possibility since a townie wouldn't know "only one recruitment went through".

what's to say that the person sending the messages is even correct about the number of prs?

also, echoing mutant's question.

[northsidegal]

oh yeah,

@nicorobin, cheeky or nancy drew

– whenever you see this, please let me know if dreal sent you a private message asking if you were still here.

[northsidegal]

a50, if you're thinking that porkens' claim was this post, i think he was just excited at what had happened, not claiming responsibility for it.

I had a 3-way with Creature and Varsoon. This game goes in my win column.

My Role is literally the first example PM in the OP

You are an Impressionable Transexual Transylvanian - neutral

you can be recruited into being :

Groupie - cultist

Groupie - cultist

I have not received any PMs

[northsidegal]

i know that nicorobin has been around recently, but she still hasn't posted.

[northsidegal]

hey guys, it's entirely settled that the voice thing isn't mod-given information that we can trust to be accurate – i just asked dreal about it. i'm certain you could all do the same if you don't trust me (if you do ask, make sure to word your questions thoughtfully enough).

that's not to say that it's confirmed as not accurate – it could still very well be true, it's just that we shouldn't be taking it as mod-info.

[northsidegal]

Are we claiming now?

cheeky, did you get a pm asking you if you were still checking the game?

[northsidegal]

i think timewarp may have been cult recruited.

[northsidegal]

like i could see the mod sending just timewarp a pm and not cheeky or yume or the other non-posters because timewarp is presumably new, but his checking the thread right as we went into pause and the actions presumably resolved makes me think that it's likely he got a cult recruitment pm.

[northsidegal]

is chickadee an unlimited vig? because if not, is it actually worth shooting there? presumably he's not cult leader, but is it still worth it to use a vig shot on a cult groupie? i'd assume so, just not sure about the math / logistics of it.

[northsidegal]

if we go off of the assumption that we're correct in timewarp being cult recruited, that shows that one cult leader chose to recruit from within the nonposters, entirely avoiding the active players / the claimed prs. not entirely sure what that suggests in terms of cult power or cult abilities, but the strategy of it might be revealing in terms of

who

the cult leader is and who would use that strategy.

[northsidegal]

wouldn't you say that the problem is inactivity moreso than excessive activity?

[northsidegal]

hi! are you cult?

[northsidegal]

is creature obvscum yet?

[northsidegal]

oh cool, we didn't lose an immunity vote.

[northsidegal]

So wait, if Porkens is immune, why are we voting for him? Isn't that redundant?

what makes you think porkens is immune? he claimed a recruitable role.

[northsidegal]

quoting so that everyone can see:

hey guys, it's entirely settled that the voice thing isn't mod-given information that we can trust to be accurate – i just asked dreal about it. i'm certain you could all do the same if you don't trust me (if you do ask, make sure to word your questions thoughtfully enough).

that's not to say that it's confirmed as not accurate – it could still very well be true, it's just that we shouldn't be taking it as mod-info.

[northsidegal]

it could come from scum, it could come from someone who has an immunization ability and a communication ability who wants to communicate with us without necessarily claiming. if it were the second i would've expected less flavorful messages and more direct ones, but i'm fine voting elsewhere anyways.

VOTE: inferno

[northsidegal]

me!

[northsidegal]

who did you shoot?

[northsidegal]

Chickadee have you flavor claimed?

[northsidegal]

Was timewarp the same one that you targeted previously where the shot failed? If not, why switch targets?

[northsidegal]

@chicakdee

Was timewarp the same one that you targeted previously where the shot failed? If not, why switch targets?

[northsidegal]

no nancy, we know who we voted for the immunization but we're not sure if it went through or not.

[northsidegal]

huh, missed whatever it was that was quoted. tgp, mind explaining without breaking the rules?

[northsidegal]

how many play / pause cycles have we gone through now? the underlying question there being, how much can we expect the cults to have grown now assuming each cult recruited once per phase?

[northsidegal]

by the way, we haven't gotten any messages from our anonymous source ever since i called it out as potentially being fake – makes me still more inclined to say that it was coming from a cult action.

[northsidegal]

Unless each cult can only post such message once each, which would explain why we have only had 2.

initially i was going to respond saying how there's no way this could be true, but i guess i've come around a little to the idea after thinking about it for a second. both messages were written in largely the same style such that it makes me think that they were both written by the same person (and my thoughts on who that person is i hope to share soon). i was also going to say that there's no way the cult would use their message so early if it were one-shot, but thinking about it a bit more it makes sense – early in the game people are less likely to question its legitimacy and using it as a smokescreen for someone you've just recruited being "immunized" seems to be the best possible use for something like that.

if one cult used it early to mask a recruit, i could see the second cult picking up on that and trying to emulate it. like i said, i kind of doubt it though.

[northsidegal]

if i'm remembering correctly, chickadee submitted her shot before jay submitted the roleblock and thus her shot should have a) gone through and b) would not have appeared to jay as a successful roleblock (if i'm understanding the order of events and the way that works out correctly).

with that in mind, either chickadee was lying, someone else stopped her shot by targeting her, or there was something about the person she shot that would have prevented it.

[northsidegal]

chickadee claimed it somwhere i remember, but only after jay had claimed roleblocking her.

[northsidegal]

after a quick review i'm pretty confident that the person who wrote that message and the previous ones are the same writer. that would clear jaydragonking as not being the one sending them, as he was someone i was suspecting wrote them.

[northsidegal]

two possibilities with the boonskiies cult flip: cult were the ones who started a wagon on him in the first place to get one of their own immunized, or cult recruited him

because of

the wagon on him to try to nullify it. possibility one suggests cult have a pretty good chance of being at the start of the wagon (given the insane wagon momentum that we had), possibility two could suggest that cult are at the end and wanted to make sure that the wagon didn't switch after the recruit was sent in, although that's a weaker connection.

[northsidegal]

i still don't trust the voice.

[northsidegal]

obviously cross varsoon off.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: nancy drew

[northsidegal]

News Flash: Nancy Drew has just been targeted by the cult Gamma is in.

Wait! Why did you vote Nancy << @ NSG???

i like her name and doubt she's been recruited, yet. even if you consider gamma's post a scumclaim, what he was trying to say at least still makes sense, no?

[northsidegal]

i <3 you, nancy!

[northsidegal]

I hereby designate you as wrong. The rules specifically say that slots have to ask to be replaced.

More than likely the slot that’s being a lurksac longer than mine is the cult leader otherwise cult would have probably won.

Notice like no one died?

what's the logic behind this?

[northsidegal]

But my problem with immunizing you is, you replaced Cheeky, who was a nice lurky player to recruit without the danger that anyone could analyze a change in her behaviour. There was no behaviour to analyze after all. So probably she has been converted some time ago - which in turn means that you have a higher than average probability of being cult.

why do you have a problem with mathblade here but not with nancy drew, who you just voted for?

[northsidegal]

sidegal why weren't you killing once I recruited you?

I felt like it was far better to save my shots for later than to use them.

I'm not proud of my play this game, but within the rules of the game I believe I played to wincon once recruited.

[northsidegal]

chickadee, why did you claim the timewarp kill?