Newbie Game 417: Game Over!

[LoudmouthLee]

That's really unawesome, Flay.

[Oman]

Mispeled, I'm not calling you to vote here, but seeing as you haven't:

What is your feeling on LML right now? If you don't mind, could you do all the players?

[Mispeled]

Dory – The only post of content he made was post 31 on page 2.

Posting a lot

can be

a rogue tell. Three main reasons:
- The Freudian anal phase: "Look what I've done". Mafia (and special roles in general) like to show off, even if they're forced to do subtly. Townies, by comparison, have nothing

to

show off--and doing so unnecessarily just leads to undesired attention anyway, which leads to vicious brutal slaughter of doom.
- Leading the town around in circles while going nowhere is exactly what the mafia want to do.
- Confidence. The mafia know that nothing they can say will make them a mafia target (unless they say something

really really dumb

and force their own hand), which may make them more willing to run their mouth in general.

And having assured my own doom, Vote: Oman. I find your logic questionable, and doubly so because you speak as if you're some sort of universal authority on all things related to Mafiascum despite only being around four days longer than myself. If I know next to nothing, we can probably assume you're in a similar boat.

Oh, wait, FOURTH reason:
- Mafia need/desire/want to foster a sense of urgency, as urgency leads to hasty votes and paranoia rather than logical process and careful analysis. Posting a lot creates that sense of urgency.

Obviously it was on page 2 and doesn't tell us a lot. It's worth noting that it was the first non-random vote (asside from Oman's bandwagon votes on page 1). Really, can't say much until we hear from Dory's replacement.


Yogurtbandit – Seemed sane at first, then became 100% sure that Oman was scum. see this post. Vampyrus also found what could be a connection between Lee and YB in this post. Like I said, I think it's a stretch – and the connection doesn't mean a thing if either of them turn out to be town. I still have no clue if he's really bad scum or just weird town.


Flameaxe – Didn't say much during the early game, because he was away. The first post of content he made was post 54 on page 3, where he explained his FoS on Oman, and then said that Dory overreacted to Oman's early activity. It's also worth noting that for a short time Flameaxe was the only one not voting when Oman and YB were both at L-1 and could have hammered either of them... in fact, he's done almost no voting the whole game.


Vampyrusddg – Has been relatively quiet, but generally a voice of reason. His first significant action was to FOS Lee, YB, and Dory; followed by a vote for YB. He retracted this vote after YB was voted up to L-1. He was one of the main voices for the Lee/YB mafia pair. Obviously he stirred things up when he found the post that looked like Lee coaching YB.

LoudmouthLee – Was pushing for an Oman lynch early on, and suspected an Oman/YB mafia pair. He claims to have forgotten about the thread, but when he returned on page 6 or so, he still held on to this theory, and we know the story from there.

Oman – Started some early bandwagons. Has been at L-1 since then, basically. There's quite a few posts to read about him; all in all, I think your defense has been solid considering how many attacks you've taken.



So, to bring it all together...


Most likely town: Vampyrus, Oman
Not sure: Dory, Flameaxe, YB
Scummy: Lee

[Oman]

I would like to mention that I think YB deserves a place on the "scummy" list, not "SCUM!" but "scummy".

[LoudmouthLee]

I'm disappointed that I was not replaced. I am at ends with Flay over this one.

If I really wanted to be an asshole, I would self-vote and lynch myself. That would, obv, make the town one

townie

down. Hence, my claim.

I'm very concerned about Misspelled (ah, I spelled it right), as he basically came to my aid and then told the town, in his latest post, that I was scummy.

I realize, when Misspelled comes back online and sees this, he will be cornered scum, and place the lynching vote on me. I have dropped my case on Oman, and I still do not like this game, but the waffling that Misspelled has done is cause for concern.

I might as well get this post out there before you lynch me as pro-town. I would love to give you someone to vote tomorrow.

Remember, after you lynch me, if we do not have a successful doc protect (who knows what roles are in this game), you will be in Lynch wrong and Lose.

Vote: Misspelled

[Oman]

Droped your case, as in, you know think I'm town.

I do think Mispeled will see cornered scum, as thats what I see, but I'd still take a long hard look at a hammer (as I always do).

[LoudmouthLee]

Unvote. Vote: LmL

Go ahead. You're down a townie now.

Great scumdar.

[Oman]

If I really wanted to be an asshole

Remember that.

Apparently my scumdar and my extremelyarrogantdar are close together.

[Mispeled]

I'm very concerned about Misspelled (ah, I spelled it right), as he basically came to my aid and then told the town, in his latest post, that I was scummy.

I realize, when Misspelled comes back online and sees this, he will be cornered scum, and place the lynching vote on me. I have dropped my case on Oman, and I still do not like this game, but the waffling that Misspelled has done is cause for concern.

I said scummy. Not lynch, or even FoS, worthy. At this point, you're the only person I'm leaning slightly toward being mafia.

[Mispeled]

EBWOP, second sentence should read:

At the time of that post, you were the only person I was leaning slightly toward being mafia.

I have no clue what to think now.

[Mr. Flay]

Final Day One Vote Count:

4 - LoudmouthLee (Oman, Vampyrusddg, YogurtBandit, LoudmouthLee)

1 - Oman (Dory)

2 - Not Voting (Flameaxe, Mispeled)

LoudmouthLee, Townie, has been lynched Day One.

It is now Night One; all choices are due to me as soon as possible

Also, Sir Tornado replaces Dory.

[Mr. Flay]

Vampires are immortal, papyrus lasts almost forever, and cats have nine lives, but vampire ddgs? No such luck...

Vampyrusddg, Townie, was killed Night One.

It is now Day 2 - you are officially in Lynch-or-Lose!

[Sir Tornado]

On the basis of Stoofer's first law (a slight variation of it actually), either Oman, or YogurtBandit have to be scum. I think that person is bound to be Oman.

Vote: Oman

I strongly suspect Mispeled of being his partner in crime.

[Mispeled]

On the basis of Stoofer's first law (a slight variation of it actually), either Oman, or YogurtBandit have to be scum. I think that person is bound to be Oman.

Vote: Oman

I strongly suspect Mispeled of being his partner in crime.

Is there any reason in particular, besides the fact that I've refused to lynch Oman for being "too active"?

You'd best be careful casting votes so quickly in LYLO. Mafia could very quickly hammer that vote if Oman isn't scum.

[YogurtBandit]

Oman IS Scummy, but I think Tornados pushing.

Vote:Sir Tornado

[Sir Tornado]

YB: If you think Oman IS scummy, why aren't you voting for him?

[Oman]

Holy shit guys, we're in Lylo and you're throwing votes around!

I still think its YB, but I'm not ready to vote in LyLo (can everyone please take them off so we can talk)

Also, I think Stoof's first is void when the townie self votes.

[Oman]

FTR:

FoS(EaV): YB

Thats Essentially a Vote.

Crazy kids, with your vote throwing.

[YogurtBandit]

YB: If you think Oman IS scummy, why aren't you voting for him?

Youre reaaally pushing for an oman lynch.

[Sir Tornado]

Yeah I am. I am cop and I investigated YB innocent yesterday. Oman

has

to be scum.

Since LML voted for himself, and one of his voters is killed, it leaves 2 people who voted for him, Oman and YB, One of them should be scum.

[Oman]

Okay, for now I assume you're town and your claim is correct.

Flameaxe and mispeled are scum if you really are the cop, and I want to take a look at whether either of them are scummy enough to "confirm" your claim (by which I mean, if they look guilty, it means you are the cop)

Now lets take a look at that claim of yours.

Tornado, Stoofer's Laws aren't laws...they're theories. In fact, I'm going to take you through it:

For the others in the thread:

In a C9 game, if a pro-town player is lynched on day 1, both scum were probably on the lynch.

Firstly lets look at the wording of it. The word "Probably" jumps out at me right up. Also in the wiki It mentions a very important phrase:

Exceptions to Stoofer's 1st Law include the case where the lynchee self-votes,

. Did you consider this before you started thisAppeal to Authority?

Now your D2 posts:

Since LML voted for himself, and one of his voters is killed, it leaves 2 people who voted for him, Oman and YB, One of them should be scum.

You completly contradict yourself here. In fact, this disproves your damn theory! You say that both scum were on the wagon, based on Stoofer's First. That means that me AND YB would HAVE to be scum

if this was relevant or correct

. Unfortunatly for you, YB is "Town" and that leaves only one scum, what an interesting C9 game.

Oman

has

to be scum.

This is rediculously falsified. There is only one way for you be able to say i HAVE to be scum, and that is a guilty on me. You do not have this, one, because I'm innocent, and two because you investigated YB.

YB: If you think Oman IS scummy, why aren't you voting for him?

You push way to hard for my lynch for someone relying on an irrelevant piece of data.

I'm torn here, either Sir Tornado is scum, or he's an idiot.

I trust the others will actually read the

Whole

Stoofer's First wiki entry before jumping to conclusions.

HUGEFOS: Tornado

[Sir Tornado]

Oman... firstly, had I been scum, I would have simply claimed a

guilty

result instead of a innocent result.

Secondly, Stoofer's first law has exceptions where the lynchee self votes, I agree. However, the law itself says that when a innocent is lynched in a C9, then

both

of scum are probably on the bandwagon. Because the lynchee has self voted, I have said that

one

of the scum should be on the bandwagon. (The other three people on the bandwagon are confirmed innocents to me).

Thirdly, I agree that Stoofer's laws are probabilities more than anything. However, in mafia, there is no hard and fast rule for scum hunting, there are exceptions to every known scum tell, and, at the end of the day, the town always lynches the person most

probable

to be scum.

Fourthly, having read the discussion between you, YB and LML on day 1, I find it very improbable that all three townies would accuse both the others to be scum as you, YB and LML seem to have done on D1.

[Oman]

Oman... firstly, had I been scum, I would have simply claimed a guilty result instead of a innocent result.

WIFOM, but I'll accept it and thus put it down in my "you = town" list. Mispeled and Flameaxe scum?

Secondly, Stoofer's first law has exceptions where the lynchee self votes, I agree. However, the law itself says that when a innocent is lynched in a C9, then both of scum are probably on the bandwagon. Because the lynchee has self voted, I have said that one of the scum should be on the bandwagon. (The other three people on the bandwagon are confirmed innocents to me).

I'm afriad it doesn't extrapolate like that, I see where you're coming from, but I don't think thats been tested enough.

Fourthly, having read the discussion between you, YB and LML on day 1, I find it very improbable that all three townies would accuse both the others to be scum as you, YB and LML seem to have done on D1.

Are you accusing me, or supporting me here?

I think you're just taking Stoof's too far out of context, and not scum. I also will take note of your first note:

Vote: Mispeled

[Mispeled]

Do you have any reason for voting for me besides his cop claim? Doesn't it seem odd that the mafia hasn't hammered yet if Tornado is actually the cop?

A. Sir Tornado votes for Oman, and vote isn't hammered by mafia. That could tell us one of two things:
1. Sir Tornado is mafia and needs another townie to jump on before his partner can hammer.
2. Oman is mafia and his partner isn't going to bus him.

B. YogurtBandit votes for Sir Tornado.
1. YB is mafia.
2. Sir Tornado is mafia.

and if your vote isn't hammered,
1. Oman is mafia
2. I am mafia

Or, I suppose, the mafia didn't hammer those votes for some other reason, so I guess it's quickly becoming WIFOM. But given the evidence,

FOS

Sir Tornado.

[Oman]

Do you have any reason for voting for me besides his cop claim? Doesn't it seem odd that the mafia hasn't hammered yet if Tornado is actually the cop?

No, flameaxe has poor activity. Totally normal.

A. Sir Tornado votes for Oman, and vote isn't hammered by mafia. That could tell us one of two things:
1. Sir Tornado is mafia and needs another townie to jump on before his partner can hammer.
2. Oman is mafia and his partner isn't going to bus him.

Interesting you don't note #3. Flameaxe is a mafia who isn't here to jump on. Maybe his partner too, Mispeled.

B. YogurtBandit votes for Sir Tornado.
1. YB is mafia.
2. Sir Tornado is mafia.

OR Flameaxe isn't here.

and if your vote isn't hammered,
1. Oman is mafia
2. I am mafia

OR Flameaxe isn't here.

Could I also add the fact that mafia could be not voting to cause you to make these assumptions. WIFOM though.