Newbie 677 - Game Over!

[hambargarz]

Hmm I guess given the mods reply, basing on pure statistical probability, the ICs are more likely to be scum

Vote: icemanE

I'm just playing the odds people
(also for a scummy 2nd vote, stacking with his IC-more-likely-scum-than-town buddy, iamausername)

Everyone has to be a comedian

[icemanE]

Hmm I guess given the mods reply, basing on pure statistical probability, the ICs are more likely to be scum Twisted Evil

No, everyone has an equal shuffle. Your math is massively flawed. What the mod said is that IC's, by chance alone, have been mafia more time than scum. That means nothing in this game, as the chances are reset every game. Clearly being an IC, or being new, has nothing to do with your chances of being scum or town.

Don't you think it's a bit early to be calling scum buddies, burger?

Also, you attempt to make it seem like I agree with iamsurename's "IC more than likely town" claim, which I disagree with entirely.

This is great - things are getting going much quicker than most newbie games do.

[icemanE]

Oops, forgot to

Fos: Burger

[hambargarz]

No, everyone has an equal shuffle. Your math is massively flawed. What the mod said is that IC's, by chance alone, have been mafia more time than scum. That means nothing in this game, as the chances are reset every game. Clearly being an IC, or being new, has nothing to do with your chances of being scum or town.

Don't you think it's a bit early to be calling scum buddies, burger?

Also, you attempt to make it seem like I agree with iamsurename's "IC more than likely town" claim, which I disagree with entirely.

This is great - things are getting going much quicker than most newbie games do.

I was hoping the smiley faces would express I was fooling around
Ye I know everyone has equal chance (see post 7), I was making an observation on the mods comment on AGear's post. That's why I said based on "statistical" probability.

Yes it probably is a bit early to call scum buddies, but I like to get things moving, So I have my eye out for stuff like that. (given my last game experience).

[AGear2Ax]

Wow, so the ICs are randomly putted as townies, well that actually says a lot, and a got what a wanted a topic to start moving the game. Anyways, did you think that I thought that the ICs are innocent? No, even if it was true that in all "VRK's old towns" the ICs were townies it doesn't mean that he will do the same always, hence why I do FoS to iamusername.

Anyways, starting to vote people and calling other scums its too early, specially when we have 3 players that haven't confirm their roles, and before VRK writes that there's scum already playing(which is highly probably), I say that at least we must wait a post from every player to properly start to search the scum.

Well, I have 2 votes againts me, the first that I think was random, well actually for being the first in the Living Players list, and the second, for crap logic?, Did you mean for being a totally newbie? eh, icemanE?

[icemanE]

Anyways, did you think that I thought that the ICs are innocent? No, even if it was true that in all "VRK's old towns" the ICs were townies it doesn't mean that he will do the same always, hence why I do FoS to iamusername.

Right, but you neglect to vote him because you say:

Hey al4xz, we must don't vote for the IC, after seeing other "towns" under VRK manageament, the ICs have been townies, but his vote doesn't seem logic, as townies we must considerate that a vote without arguments could end in a lynch for an innocent townie.

I'm actually not quite sure what you're saying in the above quote. If you could clarify it, that would be helpful.

and before VRK writes that there's scum already playing(which is highly probably)

No way in heck the mod would ever say anything like that.

[AGear2Ax]

Hey al4xz, we must don't vote for the IC, after seeing other "towns" under VRK manageament, the ICs have been townies, but his vote doesn't seem logic, as townies we must considerate that a vote without arguments could end in a lynch for an innocent townie.

I'm actually not quite sure what you're saying in the above quote. If you could clarify it, that would be helpful.

That's why I FoS to iamusername, first I thought that there will be high chances that the ICs are townies and voting against them isn't a good idea, but iamusername voting against me without knowing nothing about me doesn't seem something that a pro-town could do, since, votes without strong arguments and suspiction are more likely to end in the lynch of an innocent townie. I mean, does a random vote at the beginning of the game have a strategic value? Well, if you see I have two votes against me(IC votes) and if iamusername doesn't unvote and vote someone else under 48 hours and I got 3 more votes then I could get speedlynch with a random vote.

[icemanE]

but iamusername voting against me without knowing nothing about me doesn't seem something that a pro-town could do, since, votes without strong arguments and suspiction are more likely to end in the lynch of an innocent townie. I mean, does a random vote at the beginning of the game have a strategic value?

Ah OK, I guess I should explain that, almost always, at the beginning of any game, there's a random voting stage. People vote other players for no reason at all - basically, it's a way to get the game moving, to get discussion started. Some people hate the RV stage, some people think it's great. Regardless, it's pretty much always the way you're going to see a game start. It usually lasts until someone hits on something that seems like it's more pertinent to the actual game, like we have here. I remember I was really confused about the RV stage myself in my first game, but generally, random votes aren't scumtells in and of themselves. If, say, a bandwagon started to get someone close to lynch during the random stage, then we'd have something serious to look at, which would bring us out of the RV stage... but that's just one example of how things could play out.

Well, if you see I have two votes against me(IC votes) and if iamusername doesn't unvote and vote someone else under 48 hours and I got 3 more votes then I could get speedlynch with a random vote.

I wouldn't worry about that - until you're up around L-2 or L-1 (which stand for Lynch two and lynch one, meaning you're two votes or one vote away from being lynched) there's no real danger of you being lynched. Also, if someone were to quick-lynch you, it would throw up a huge red flag, so generally, scum wouldn't do that.

I guess I forgot I was playing in a newbie game for a moment there, sorry about that. I don't think what you did was a scumtell, just confusion.

unvote

. If you have any questions feel free to ask.

[AGear2Ax]

I didn't know about the RV stage, it have a wiki entry as well. In that case then:

unFoS: iamusername

Playing Mafia really feels good... Back to the game, icemanE, it feels like your last post is a dead end, I mean it didn't end opened for continue the game, suspiction on somebody, anyways:

IGMEOY: al4xz

He did a move that seems Pro-Townie after my suspiction of the Random Vote. It could be a scum move to try to get the trust of us townies, and doesn't seem necessary since nobody suspect of him.

[hambargarz]

He did a move that seems Pro-Townie after my suspiction of the Random Vote. It could be a scum move to try to get the trust of us townies, and doesn't seem necessary since nobody suspect of him.

I was warned by IC last game about this kind of thinking, which I tended to do alot and was seen as generally not good for the town. (They called it WIFOM thinking)

Having said that, I don't agree with either of the situations you've put. Regarding the first, In my opinion his action didn't seem particularly pro-town and because of this, the second theory doesn't seem likely (he hasn't gained any trust from me).

[AGear2Ax]

That WIFOM has a wiki entry as well, and yeah, that's the way I think in most games that requires interaction with other players. There's only one thing I can say, the townies always tell the truth, but the mafia can either tell the truth or tell lies, and what I'm planning is to make the scums of this game is to post a lot until they cann't continue support their lies, the more you lie, then is more difficult to maintain coherency in the lies.

Anyways, al4xz haven't make a post with enough text to start a proper suspiction of him, and what I write was with the purpose of keep the game moving and lure al4xz to post something.

Thanks for the advice hambargarz. We can play and learn about strategies in this way.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Getting replacements for the no-shows from the Queue.

[SabakuSands]

Playing Mafia really feels good...

OMG TOTAL SCUMTELL!

MFoS: AGear2Ax

How else would you know that it feels good? Anyway, I'm aware that we're past the RV stage, so I won't start hindering where progress has been made! Seriously though, there's some...interesting logic going down there. As it appears to be bad logic, though, I suppose there's no merit in it.
I do have to say that the first post of the game really stood out:

Hi, I'm one of your ICs. This means I know what I'm doing. And I just voted for AGear2Ax. I think it should be obvious what the rest of you have to do.

That seems a bit abrupt, but my opinion could easily disintegrate into WIFOMs: "He must be scum, very abrupt and no joke reason", "Oh, but he might be pro-townie, unless he is scum and wants me to think that he is pro-townie because that's such an obvious move". So, I'm not casting a vote right this minute! I'm just watching to see where this game is going.

[AGear2Ax]

Playing Mafia really feels good...

OMG TOTAL SCUMTELL!

MFoS: AGear2Ax

How else would you know that it feels good? Anyway, I'm aware that we're past the RV stage, so I won't start hindering where progress has been made! Seriously though, there's some...interesting logic going down there. As it appears to be bad logic, though, I suppose there's no merit in it.

Hey SabakuSands, that Mafia refers to the game itself, as you can see I have posted a lot, and I have been thinking outside of the game what to do, and it really feels good, I feel like a detective.

BTW, there's something I found odd the text VRK has write in my first post:

/FAIL

This is my 21st Newbie game as a Mod. In the games that have been completed (15), there is an almost 3:1 ratio of Town:Mafia for the ICs. However, there are 3.5x more Town PMs than Mafia PMs sent each game. So that actually means that, based on pure probability, my ICs have been Mafia more often than Town.

The entire process is random. I use random.org to choose a setup and assign the roles for that setup. Besides, it's bad form to try to out-guess the Mod Smile - Vel

Why that explanation? it wouldn't be better if just the Mod says: "Actually i use random.org, the roles are assigned randomly", but that's not our case, I have visited your modded games and found that in all F11 games at least there's 1 townie IC and never 2 mafia ICs. BTW, by probability and randomness, there's a 22% chance of an IC to be scum.

From what you wrote I think more that the ICs are townies, and one of them is definitely a townie, just head here to confirm what I wrote.

And please VRK, don't write anything about this, I know what I'm doing.

[icemanE]

Yeah, I talked to the mod of my newbie game, and he said that if he ever used random.org and got the result of two mafia IC's, he'd reshuffle it.

[SabakuSands]

I was in the middle of this post when I accidentally closed the tab, so I'm going for short this time.

If I was being overly paranoid, I'd think something was going on: Fixation with IC status = missing scumtells because of not paying attention to anything else / distancing tactic.

Nice reseach, Gear (can I call you that?), kudos to you, as I'm lazy and wouldn't take time to research so thoroughly! I guess that the conclusion we can make is that either Iceman or iamausername is Mafia...

one of them is

definitely

a townie

That word kinda sticks out. If we don't allow for a chance that both ICs are actually townies and that we have 2 newbie scumbuddies, it'll limit our thinking and possibly cause disaster for us. I think that it would have been better worded if you'd have said "likely" or "probably". Your conviction seems a bit odd to me- I'm not sure why. I think it's most likely because you seem resolute on clearing the ICs. For all I know, you could be Mafia, and you could be using the statistics to clear your scumbuddy (either Iceman or iamausername). I think I shall

MFoS: AGear2Ax

seriously this time. Last time it was miniscule, now it's minor. Perhaps I'm thinking too much into this...I haven't mentioned one specific IC because although iamausername's first post was a bit eyebrow-raising, neither of them have really posted anything that seems overtly scummy.

Official Vote Count

AGear2Ax - 1 (iamausername)
icemanE - 1 (hambargarz)

Not Voting - 7 (AGear2Ax, al4xz, icemanE, Minos Yewman, emikanter, Bombour, SabakuSands)

5 to Lynch

[icemanE]

I guess that the conclusion we can make is that either Iceman or iamausername is Mafia...

That's also a flawed conclusion, in my newbie game both IC's were town.

[SabakuSands]

If we don't allow for a chance that both ICs are actually townies and that we have 2 newbie scumbuddies, it'll limit our thinking and possibly cause disaster for us.

Way ahead of you!

[icemanE]

Way ahead of you!

Yep, just make sure you don't assume both IC's are townies, either. Just keep in mind there's an equal chance any of us could be scum. Judge based on actions rather than statistics.

[SabakuSands]

Indeed, I should have added, "But neither should we assume both ICs are definitely townies." The only problem is that so far, nothing much is happening. I'm assuming that's due to the replacements not turning up yet. I think I might be posting too much! Overcompensating for my absence during the school day, I suppose Anyway, I shall slow down my posting to an acceptable rate.

[AGear2Ax]

I guess that the conclusion we can make is that either Iceman or iamausername is Mafia

Wrong! the conclusion is that at least one of them is townie.

Yeah, I talked to the mod of my newbie game, and he said that if he ever used random.org and got the result of two mafia IC's, he'd reshuffle it.

Quiz time Mr. icemanE, if an IC write: "Yeah, it will be unfair for a newbie game, to put the newbies against 2 scums", instead of your answer what will you think?

[icemanE]

"Yeah, it will be unfair for a newbie game, to put the newbies against 2 scums", instead of your answer what will you think?

I would agree that it would be unfair to put a group of new players against 2 experienced scum. The new players have to rely on the IC's for advice on how to play the game, and without a lot of knowledge on the mechanics, the newbies could very easily be controlled by two experienced scum players.

[AGear2Ax]

"Yeah, it will be unfair for a newbie game, to put the newbies against 2 scums", instead of your answer what will you think?

I would agree that it would be unfair to put a group of new players against 2 experienced scum. The new players have to rely on the IC's for advice on how to play the game, and without a lot of knowledge on the mechanics, the newbies could very easily be controlled by two experienced scum players.

Yeah, after seeing the statics, I could tell that mafia teams in VRK's modded F11 newbie games win more often than town teams. Anyways...

IGMEOY: icemanE

You say you agree to that answer, then it says to me that there will be other ways to agree that conclusion of mine without talking about info that the other townies cann't access, Like that talk you had with the mod of your newbie game.

[icemanE]

You say you agree to that answer, then it says to me that there will be other ways to agree that conclusion of mine without talking about info that the other townies cann't access, Like that talk you had with the mod of your newbie game.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here.

[SabakuSands]

I guess that the conclusion we can make is that either Iceman or iamausername is Mafia

Wrong! the conclusion is that at least one of them is townie.

Well, if one of them is Mafia, then the other would be townie, therefore meaning that one of them

is

townie, no? Unless both of them are town or Mafia. We can't rule any of them out...yet.

I would assume that IcemanE had a little post-game talk with the mod, and nothing less innocent than that. I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at with the IGMEOY, Gear, but I'm surprised that you haven't cast a vote. I understand we're all still reasoning, but surely if you want to apply pressure to Iceman, you should vote?

I realise how scummy that sounds- go vote Iceman! Jump on the bandwagon! It sounds like a scum-tell of some sort, but I'm not going to appeal to pity or emotion if you think I am scum by that post. I can't really say any more as I've already made myself sound scummy, and any further arguments that I am townie will just sound like flimsy tricks. I'll just say that I know I'm a townie, and that's it. What I'm actually trying to say is that Gear's refraining from voting seems slightly odd. Or am I being overly paranoid again? I know there's such a thing as vote-hopping, but abstaining is also bad.

Since I'm sort of writing this as a stream of thought type post, I've just decided by scanning previous posts again-

Vote: AGear2Ax

for convoluted reasoning which doesn't seem to lead anywhere, and may be used to try and get Iceman to talk himself into a corner.