Open 574: Stack the Deck [ABANDONED]

[Mathdino]

What do you propose? We already established that RM is getting lynched if texcat turns up town. I think we need a flip to move forward at this point.

My logic, Alchemist, is only WIFOMable if scum both did the same calculations that I did, knew I would post that and start arguing texcat was town for it, gambled for the 10% chance where she's not CC'd, AND expected no one would be suspicious if a bodyguard or texcat wasn't dead by LyLo. I don't even know texcat won't get CC'd yet. But if she doesn't, I ask again
Does that seem reasonable to you?

The game is going just fine. The game will be worse if texcat is town and somehow dies tomorrow because of another PR screwup.
If RM flips town, then scum is ABR/wgeurts. droog and Riddleton are completely and utterly town. And I'm going to keep the promise I made at the beginning of this day, which was that I'd table Alchemist vs WP until after the RM and texcat stuff happened. After RM is lynched, I'm going back to that for tomorrow, though tbh I'm kind of leaning toward you.
After he's lynched. I already told you I'm not the bodyguard, so I'm currently in rather little danger of dying (if scum's not stupid and texcat is town). There's no pressure for me to scumhunt based on pre-flip assocs AND pre-investigation results AND pre-NK flip results, since I'll still be here tomorrow to go over that.

Which is why I'm trying to prove texcat's town by going around asking people if they're the goon cop or a RB who blocked someone other than texcat.
So

Alchemist,

please say what I asked you to say.

[Alchemist21]

I'm not going to say it because I don't want to give scum any hints about what role I may or may not be.

I'll also ask this - did you account for the probability that WP has a role that could counterclaim Texcat? If he does, we may never get that CC anyway, so the whole massclaim-type deal you're asking for is pointless at the moment anyway.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Why would textcat get roleblocked?

Anyway, that's fine for now.

Unvote, vote Random Midget

[Mathdino]

So you're telling me you think scum accounted for that probability and

predicted

WP wouldn't get replaced before the deadline? I ask again
Does that seem sensible to you?

You guys are so unable to let go of our prior tunneling that you're focused on coming up with possibilities and other stuff that is insanely unlikely and would require a great deal of idiocy or chance for them to even be possible. You think that 'WIFOM' trumps anything, but it really doesn't. Again, that would require scum to predict all of this would happen, and go for the 90% chance they'd lose texcat just because if they get their 10%, I'm going to tell everyone texcat is town. As opposed to just claiming a PR and hoping to not get lynched.

You saying you can't CC texcat gives scum no hints. If you're the roleblocker, I'm not even asking you to claim roleblocker. I'm asking you to claim RB who hasn't RB'd texcat.
Alchemist, if you're able to CC texcat, you understand that you're basically screwing over our current scumhunting, which for me requires the assumption texcat is town, right?

WP will hopefully get replaced before deadline. I'm requesting an extension if he's not.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: I'm asking you to claim someone who hasn't RB'd texcat.

ABR, how is this question relevant?

[Albert B. Rampage]

He wasn't on anyone's radar day 1 as far as I know. Just wondering why town would roleblock textcat.

[Mathdino]

FoS: ABR

you look like you're roleblocker hunting, you really do. That question isn't anywhere near worth discussing as it helps mafia narrow down who would do that.

ABR, do you have anything that can confirm that texcat is lying?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm roleblocker hunting? Then what are you doing?

[Mathdino]

Read my posts. I'm trying to make it easier for town PRs to not mess with each other tonight, and I'm absolutely not asking people to claim roleblocker. I'm asking people if they have anything to prove texcat is scum. If no one has anything, and I'm almost completely positive they won't because texcat's move makes no sense as town, then we can get a bodyguard claim and make sure we don't screw up tonight again.

[Mathdino]

Goddammit, sleep deprived logic errors. *texcat's move makes no sense as scum

And yes, pondering over why someone would RB texcat tells scum more about who would be willing to. Which is bad.

[Alchemist21]

Let's move on from this. I'm not saying Texcat is scum, I'm not saying she isn't scum. I'm just saying we shouldn't rule anything out yet. This arguing is getting us nowhere other than potentially tearing the town apart. I will concede the point that a bodyguard claim is probably a good idea and say that I am not a bodyguard.

@Mathdino, if RM flips town, why do you think ABR would be scum with wgeurts?

[Mathdino]

PoE and the insane pushiness on texcat and RM to get claims. Town consists of:

Alchemist, ABR, droog, Mathdino, randomidget, Riddleton, texcat, slimer, wgeurts, and WP's slot.

I'm town. droog and Riddleton are town. texcat is 90% town. randomidget is being lynched. Alchemist, ABR, slimer, wgeurts, WP's slot.
I don't think you and WP are scum together. The complaints against wgeurts are valid with the knowledge of texcat and RM both being town. ABR's interaction with wgeurts read a lot more like bussing than with RM and texcat. I can explain this more later if you want. Trying to make associations like this with the current lynch target will only allow people to adjust their behaviour, though, so I'll discuss this more later. Like I said, since texcat, her bodyguard, or whoever CC's either of them if any is gonna die tonight, I'm not in any danger of this right now, so I can provide full analysis post-flip, post-NK flip, and post-texcat's results.

[Alchemist21]

Ok. We'll talk about it tomorrow then. Any individual suspicions that don't depend on another player's alignment?

@Slimer, don't think I've forgotten your promise to give your thoughts on the game.

For anyone planning to vote RM, he is currently at L-2. His wagon consists of ABR, Mathdino, Riddleton, and Alchemist.

[Mathdino]

Nothing new except ABR asking that insanely fishy question about the roleblocking choice.

[wifom]Don't get me wrong, I don't know why someone would RB her either,[/wifom] but there is 0 positive utility in discussing it.

[Alchemist21]

My current reads:

I think randomidget is scum because of how he seemed to be avoiding me when I kept asking him for reads, and his detailed reads list only came after we talked about it being part of his town meta. I'll also recall that he had a scumread on me by saying my play reminded him of our prior game together when I was scum, but never elaborated on that. Instead, he switched me to his townreads when he posted that long-awaited reads list.

I think Wgeurts may be scum. I didn't like the way he switched from a scumread to a townread on ABR on D1 the way he did. He parroted a small part of the larger meta discussion on ABR that happened earlier, and his posts about it came out as awkward. I wasn't sure if that was due to scumminess or the language barrier. Then when he attacked randomidget and I did a meta, I found that he has tried double bussing in the past which aided his partner in winning. This read hinges on randomidget flipping scum.

I don't feel comfortable with Slimer's lack of contributions so far. The last meaningful thing I remember coming from him was the "justified OMGUS" discussion held early D1. I want more from this slot.

I still feel ABR is town, but that is due to the meta on how he starts his games. I also want to hear more from this slot.

I think Texcat is town, given her recent claim. I'm not going to clear her just for her claim yet, but I'll let her play the rest of this game speak for itself.

I think Mathdino is town because he's actively thinking about the game. I may not agree with all his points, but I can't see scum playing the way he has this game.

I think Riddleton is also town. Along with Mathdino, he has meaningfully contributed to the meta-based discussions we've had. He was scumreading me when I presented my ABR meta, and if he were scum, I think instead of agreeing it was valid he would have just shit on it, called me a liar, and gotten me mislynched.

Droog looks town. His play-style looks to be more based on questioning other players, and I would like to see more of his conclusions, and a bit more explanation to them.

I'll hold off on a WP read for now. I'll have to review his posts for a read here since he's been gone since D1, and that alone makes the read less valuable to me since I can't gauge any of his reactions to the events of D2. Maybe a replacement will come along and allow me to get a more current read. Expect this read to come after my V/LA ends this weekend.

[wgeurts]

How don't we know that Texcat is scum role cop, he can easily manipulate that as to get a fake RC claim. He'd also know if he'd been roleblocked, I'm afraid MathDino that this piece of logic smashes your towncat theory. Also, stop making 56 pages while I sleep!
If this is true then Texcat pulled off an amazing claim as scum.
The other possibility for her to know that there's a roleblocker is for her to take a kill as scum and be blocked, that would mean there's a vig who killed droog however which doesn't seem likely. I don't know the benefits of claiming now so I'll leave this info to you.
UNVOTE:

[wgeurts]

Either way it's likely there's a RB.

[wgeurts]

@Mod, can RB block kills

?

[Mathdino]

That... is an excellent point. Furthermore, anyone claiming would be tunneled by the roleblocker for the rest of the game...

Yeah, maybe claiminig isn't such a hot idea.

Vig killing DGB and texcat getting roleblocked is kind of insanely unlikely, sorry.

wgeurts, why don't you put RM at L-1?

Also, that's kind of the point of the roleblocker. Doubt it'd use the ability if it couldn't block kills; it'd hinder town more than scum.

[wgeurts]

OMG

IF YOU'RE A VIG CLAIM

then we'll know if the second option actually happened. If you're a cog also say who you killed!

[wgeurts]

Cog=vig

[wgeurts]

Mathdino, if there's a vig we know texcat was scum taking a nk. The bodyguard didn't die so roleblocker would be the only way to stop a kill, claim vig and say if you killed droog. Only claim if you killed droog!

[Mathdino]

wgeurts, the vig theory is subject to the same issues as the original claim does; it requires both goon and vig to not be in the game for that claim to work, and there's a 10% probability of that.

Still thinking about the rolecop theory. I hadn't considered that at all.

Edit: see above.

[Mathdino]

Gooncop, sorry.

[wgeurts]

No, because if a vig killed droog it means the scum

had

to be roleblocked as the bodyguard didn't die. If the vig claims and calls his kill it'll confirm tex as scum.