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[UNOwen]

@UNOwen I'm going to need to hear some more from you. Some reads or thoughts on the game please

Ask specific questions and you shall receive specific answers.

In general though I think Redados is most suspicious and am surprised there's not more interest in the wagon against him. Shellyc's earlier behaviour with Jackson was also suspicious but it remains to be seen if she has a more compelling explanation for that read. Outside of that I get the impression that despite the high quantity of posts this game is spinning wheels. Jester's read list that was unable to identify scum felt like a fair and honest assessment. Perhaps once saudade is no longer vla, the replacements are made, and the catch-up players have caught up there will be more notable developments. For now I am satisfied with what I am pursuing.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I was okay with Tayl0r's predecessor but not sure what to think of the slot at the moment. I know Jester already asked you to explain why you find his read on Saudade opportunistic but I would also really like to hear your read on Saudade since you did throw slight shade towards him earlier saying him being silent is a scum tell, I am well aware you were being sarcstic about your vast experience with him but still you never mentioned him after that.

Theory.
Tayl0r scumread Saudade before receiving her role pm. But then when she did receive it she realized Saudade was her scum teammate so she stopped focusing on him.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Oh nvm they picked up role pm before saying that.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I just want to state for the record that i will indeed attempt to pocket Odd Day Jester no matter my alignment.

[shellyc]

like can I ask why??? nobody??? believes in my jackson read because ive explained it but i shall case jackson at your wishes

[shellyc]

hm I am going to be honest Noraa, if you are town you are mislynch bait.

60% of your posts are fluff and the rest of your play is just reactionary which I'd normally consider to be a scumtell. You're not really doing anything proactive whatsoever, the readlist you just gave before gives the impression you're not really trying to figure out peoples alignment (like mixing me and bugspray up at this point is really weird to me). It doesnt really feel like youre putting in an effort to solve peoples alignment, however I am not convinced you are scum at all as this could indeed just come from a new player as well but yea if you are town then I sincerely hope you can be a bit more proactive

yay someone finally thinks noraa is fluffposting and fence sitting

noraa's probably TSTBS? but if they're a mislim waiting to happen i guess policy-ing them wouldnt be too bad of a thing to do

[Mundivore]

u missed "himself"

My pedantry has failed me. I cannot succeed at this game.

[Mundivore]

Hrm. I'm tired of all the fluff.

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual

stakes

. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Things won't happen unless town starts voting for people. I've been part of the problem, but it's easy enough to fix.

VOTE: Saudade to E-2.

I actually don't like this wagon. I like Saudade for town. However, either this entices scum out to put more votes on people, or I get shown a more compelling wagon, right? But somebody really needs to start taking risks for us to actually

learn

things.

[shellyc]

Ok I'm going to stop procrastinating and high effort this

Jackson is Scum.

Early townread on Noraa whose play isn't really "relaxed" as far as I see it. 141 states they are LHF which is a pretty anti-town stance as noraa's play is just being a fluffposty fence-sitter
225 sheeps town leader jester on their Grendel vote without much explanation / effort done to solve grendel actually, rendering this opportunistic scum wagoning
240 agrees with jester TR on duppin once again, very agreeable play
261 super artificial defense towards my bait? "lmfao" doesn't seem like something town accused of scumslipping would do + they TR me for the bullshit test for ??? reason

Note that jackson keeps saying the word "what" super artificially, the voices are telling me something is wrong with that and idk why would town respond with a million "what"s towards my scumread on them
287 is indecisive on my alignment despite the abundance of info gained from interaction with me
303 proceeds to vote me despite 287, which isn't a very logical trajectory because there was nothing much in between the two posts
one-liners after that mostly commenting on how great meta is which isn't helping us solve the game at all

390 randomly TRs redados for the reason that they're going against the consensus on one read which isnt AI at all
one-liners after that commentating on the hate on readlists which again, isn't a solving mindset and instead serves the purpose of spam
561 when it's an obv town TMI slip on me you continue to deny it
653 suddenly unvotes me for ????? reason without much explanation. the thing jackson is doing is shifting on me alignment without a clear trajectory which doesn't read town re-evaluating since the read shifts so much
661 revotes me again + policy-ing is generally anti-town from what I have seen
677 keeps saying everything is nai, then acording to your logic what's AI lmaooo
then comments randomly on how whether newbscum are self aware which isn't a solving mindset again
then they spend a whole page overreacting super artificially to my inno child thingy, i cant see town going "oh tf i tunnelled the IC", scum would be afraid of that tbh
717 why is claiming IC townie? i dont get this progression at all
826 once again sheeping leadwagon + opportunistic hopping without adding much to the read or solving their alignment

[shellyc]

Nobody has made behavior with actual stakes.

Oh were my baits not useful enough? Were my Grendel and Jackson and Noraa reads not strong enough?

[shellyc]

Mundivore compromise limming reads decently townie if it's saude scum, but in the case saude is town this seems like scum trying to find an excuse on hopping on a town wagon

[Mundivore]

Nobody has made behavior with actual stakes.

Oh were my baits not useful enough? Were my Grendel and Jackson and Noraa reads not strong enough?

Nope.

[shellyc]

I'm heartbroken mundivore

I am fine with voting {grendel noraa jackson} and {saude} after they come back from their vla

[shellyc]

im at super high WIM and effort now so if anyone has Serious Questions I can answer them

@Redados also want to hear a bit more from you with the comments about you being fence-sitty; my gut is town on you
regarding the saude read the way they were unafraid to vote mini rubs me the right way

[Odd Day Jester]

11. Redados - Towny for that emotional reaction to the Noraa.

Hmm, I agree that anger is townie but it defused quickly and I don't think it is beyond scum to get genuinely irritated at that response. What do you think about the rest of their position on Noraa?

Yeah, it's towny because I think it's more likely that town!Redados gets so offended by Noraa not helping him out, while scum!him might be mildly annoyed because his question may not have been 100% genuine in that case. I'll ISO him for you after I have lunch.

I'm having clown cake with a side of clown crackers. I invited Mundivore to come along but they're so obsessed at studying clowns at this point that I can't drag them away from the circus.

[Odd Day Jester]

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual stakes. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Seriously? What about Jacko/I pushing shelly, or shelly pushing Grendel/Jacko? You have nothing for associations despite all that?

[Odd Day Jester]

I'm looking for a little more than a "nope" btw, want to hear the why.

I'll check out shelly's wall also after lunch.

[Noraa]

hm I am going to be honest Noraa, if you are town you are mislynch bait.

60% of your posts are fluff and the rest of your play is just reactionary which I'd normally consider to be a scumtell. You're not really doing anything proactive whatsoever, the readlist you just gave before gives the impression you're not really trying to figure out peoples alignment (like mixing me and bugspray up at this point is really weird to me). It doesnt really feel like youre putting in an effort to solve peoples alignment, however I am not convinced you are scum at all as this could indeed just come from a new player as well but yea if you are town then I sincerely hope you can be a bit more proactive

Apologies. I tend to have that problem but yeah I'm trying to be more helpful and I tend to be called anti-town regardless of my alignment so ur definitely right that I'm mostly just fluff.

@UNOwen I'm going to need to hear some more from you. Some reads or thoughts on the game please

Ask specific questions and you shall receive specific answers.

In general though I think Redados is most suspicious and am surprised there's not more interest in the wagon against him. Shellyc's earlier behaviour with Jackson was also suspicious but it remains to be seen if she has a more compelling explanation for that read. Outside of that I get the impression that despite the high quantity of posts this game is spinning wheels. Jester's read list that was unable to identify scum felt like a fair and honest assessment. Perhaps once saudade is no longer vla, the replacements are made, and the catch-up players have caught up there will be more notable developments. For now I am satisfied with what I am pursuing.

This is one of the posts the I agree with the most in this entire game. I have made a case on Redados for his weak attempt to push a Noraa wagon however it pretty much went ignored. I'm down for a Redados wagon today. He's basically lurking 24/7 and the few times he came in, he just spewed some nonsense or dropped a vote on me with basically no reason. Taylor pointed out earlier that if it was just out of anger that he voted me, he would've dropped the vote later however he never did drop that vote which makes me curious and a bit concerned as to wtf he is doing and thinking.

Ok I'm going to stop procrastinating and high effort this

Jackson is Scum.

Early townread on Noraa whose play isn't really "relaxed" as far as I see it. 141 states they are LHF which is a pretty anti-town stance as noraa's play is just being a fluffposty fence-sitter
225 sheeps town leader jester on their Grendel vote without much explanation / effort done to solve grendel actually, rendering this opportunistic scum wagoning
240 agrees with jester TR on duppin once again, very agreeable play
261 super artificial defense towards my bait? "lmfao" doesn't seem like something town accused of scumslipping would do + they TR me for the bullshit test for ??? reason

Note that jackson keeps saying the word "what" super artificially, the voices are telling me something is wrong with that and idk why would town respond with a million "what"s towards my scumread on them
287 is indecisive on my alignment despite the abundance of info gained from interaction with me
303 proceeds to vote me despite 287, which isn't a very logical trajectory because there was nothing much in between the two posts
one-liners after that mostly commenting on how great meta is which isn't helping us solve the game at all

390 randomly TRs redados for the reason that they're going against the consensus on one read which isnt AI at all
one-liners after that commentating on the hate on readlists which again, isn't a solving mindset and instead serves the purpose of spam
561 when it's an obv town TMI slip on me you continue to deny it
653 suddenly unvotes me for ????? reason without much explanation. the thing jackson is doing is shifting on me alignment without a clear trajectory which doesn't read town re-evaluating since the read shifts so much
661 revotes me again + policy-ing is generally anti-town from what I have seen
677 keeps saying everything is nai, then acording to your logic what's AI lmaooo
then comments randomly on how whether newbscum are self aware which isn't a solving mindset again
then they spend a whole page overreacting super artificially to my inno child thingy, i cant see town going "oh tf i tunnelled the IC", scum would be afraid of that tbh
717 why is claiming IC townie? i dont get this progression at all
826 once again sheeping leadwagon + opportunistic hopping without adding much to the read or solving their alignment

Shelly you told us you had decided to drop your case on Jackson. Why are you bringing it up now that the Saudade wagon is piling up? that combined with the fact that you have only been nice to Saudade this entire round makes me question a shelly/saudade scum team

[Mundivore]

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual stakes. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Seriously? What about Jacko/I pushing shelly, or shelly pushing Grendel/Jacko? You have nothing for associations despite all that?

Simply put, without any real stakes for those events, I can't confidently say their scum play would deviate in any way from their town play. People react primarily to incentives. I don't think there have been any plausible consequences for any single person in this game so far.

The one possible exception is shelly's fake IC reveal, but that's only true since shelly didn't make it as obviously a joke as it was. But that's not helpful either, since town or scum would react to an IC reveal in the exact same way there, so we don't get any real information about JV from it. We are still quintessentially in RVS.

Honestly, I think this Saudade wagon carries at least one or two scum on it. I think that if I had more time, I'd go over the wagon and really look at people's reasons for voting onto it. But in the mean time, we need to accelerate the pace of voting and making meaningful decisions in this game. Nonsense decisions don't yield information. Nonsense plays don't yield information. Town and scum play quite similarly so long as we expect that they're playing well. Scum players have an incentive to look like town, so that they aren't elimm'd. Town PRs have an incentive to look slightly scummy, so that they aren't NK'd. Vanilla townies have an incentive to look like Town PR's so that they get NK'd instead of the PRs, which means they have an incentive to look slightly scummy as well. Playing towards the 'middle' of the block is a conveniently viable strategy for all players.

However, there are plays which can be made which have fundamentally different consequences for scum than they do for town. Analyzing how people react to these plays are the only way to get actually concrete information about the game state.

—The later votes on a wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum are more likely to turn a wagon on a townie into a viable wagon.)

—Shifting off of a heavy wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum are more likely to find reasons to abandon a scum wagon.)

—Heavily pushing a viable wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum will not heavily push the wagon of scum and are more likely to heavily push a town wagon.)

—Hammering or declaring intent to hammer. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the final vote. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum may be willing to hammer a townie for weaker reasons. Scum are generally unwilling to hammer scum unless the town is already resolved in their target, in which case they'd quite like to hammer scum.)

—Claims. (Reason: scum are likely to claim a PR to survive the day, but unlikely to get NK'd in retribution. Scum may claim a PR that is very unlikely to appear in conjunction with an existing town PR, in which case a CC can secure a 1-for-1 trade at worst which is very town favorable on average.)

In order to run into any of these plays, it is essentially a requirement that there must be a player who could plausibly be elimmed. I don't like the Saudade wagon but we aren't going to learn anything about the game state with all the wagons hovering around E-3 or worse. To advance the game state to a point where we can actually get concrete information from the role reveals on elim and at night phase, we need to be making sure that the wagons are non-trivial.

[Mundivore]

Nitpicking people's mannerisms and speech, poking at the early votes on a wagon, I think these things are pretty inconsequential at the start of a thirteen player game. I've seen scum caught out because of it, but the real reason that it's pro-town is because it creates viable wagons. It feels like there are pages and pages of people pick-pick-picking at each other without actually trying to vote someone off. We don't progress the game without stakes.

[Noraa]

^the post's above are trying to tell us that we shouldn't consider u to be the scum on saudade's wagon. However out of all of the people on the wagon, you have the worst reason by far. You're just there to "get the game going" but that is absolutely what scum would say if they didn't want to think up a good reason and not sound like they r sheeping

[Mundivore]

I mean, I just turned Saudade's wagon into a much more viable wagon. By my own reasoning, a Saudade town flip (at

any

point in the game, even if we leave this wagon for a better one) should make me appear more scummy, and a Saudade scum flip should make me appear more town.

I'm aware of the fact that my vote looks more scummy than not. As I said, playing towards the middle is a fine strategy. The point is, I'm making a play that has consequences. Votes, and the ways people react to votes, and the ways people react

with

votes, are the only thing that have consequences and therefore any concrete long-term meaning in this game. If you're serious about your doubt of me, vote for me. Things need to

happen.

Otherwise, town will keep floundering until we run out of time and we're forced to elim the person with the most votes on them just so that we don't give scum an extra kill.

[Noraa]

My read rn:
Mundivore-town
bugspray-3rd scum?
JacksonVirgo-town
duppin-town
MiniMegabyte-town
Tayl0r Swift/Grendel-town
Odd Day Jester-town
shellyc-scum
Saudade-town
Redados-scum
UNOwen-town
NorwegianboyEE-3rd scum?

My current scum team I think is:
Shelly
Redados
Norwee/bugspray

I'm not at all confident in this scumteam tbh. In fact I'm 100% sure its definitely not completely correct like it might have 1 or 2 of the scum team but I highly highly doubt this is the actual solve of this game. However I'm putting this read out there to start some questions/conversations about me introducing what I think currently, is the scum team. Bring in the questions and I'll try my best to answer and adjust my reads if what is said is reasonable.

[Odd Day Jester]

ISO/reading cancelled, not really feeling mafia today. I'll be back either tonight or tomorrow.

[duppin]

@UNOwen I'm going to need to hear some more from you. Some reads or thoughts on the game please

Ask specific questions and you shall receive specific answers.

In general though I think Redados is most suspicious and am surprised there's not more interest in the wagon against him. Shellyc's earlier behaviour with Jackson was also suspicious but it remains to be seen if she has a more compelling explanation for that read. Outside of that I get the impression that despite the high quantity of posts this game is spinning wheels. Jester's read list that was unable to identify scum felt like a fair and honest assessment. Perhaps once saudade is no longer vla, the replacements are made, and the catch-up players have caught up there will be more notable developments. For now I am satisfied with what I am pursuing.

i see, well then my question would be why are you not trying to push harder on redados?