mini 800 - cr3t1ns mafier - gaem over

[Battle Mage]

I'm putting my chips in on Camn being scum, with either CTD or Yos. Which means if im lynched today, it could well be game-over. lol

BM

You still haven't made an argument for Camn being part of the mafia group that makes sense to me here, BM. You haven't explained why she would claim a role that would almost certanly be counterclaimed, or why she hasn't been counterclaimed, or who you think is actually the "real" vig/sk who is lying about it. You're spinning a theory that dosn't make any sense and dosn't seem to have any basis in reality.

Ugh. I'm not entirely sure why we're even still discussing this. It's incredibly straightforward.

Camn is Mafia and claims Vigilante. If the other kill is an SK, they will ascertain Camn is scum, and kill her. They won't counter-claim, because if they do, they have absolutely no chance of winning. If the other kill is another Mafia group, they might well believe that Camn is a Vig, and again, are unlikely to counter-claim, unless they feel they can get Camn lynched today, and win the game tonight. If the other kill is a Vig, there is no incentive to counter-claim, because they will be almost certain that Camn is lying. The Vig will presumably try and kill Camn tonight, but has no reason to out themselves today, as it makes them a prime candidate for NK, and a Vig can be a powerful role in this scenario. It's this very fact that makes me doubt the validity of Camn's claim. Why claim Vig then, when she wasnt really under any pressure, and the results claimed didnt make her anywhere near confirmed town? Why would she want suggestions on who to kill, when if she was town, a reasonable proportion of her fellow players would be scum?

The problem is that Camn hasn't alot to gain from this claim-except ensuring she gets to survive today, which, as i said, didnt seem like a big issue. Unless ofc, she is an NK immune godfather-one of the potential roles listed by Cretin.

Now, as i say, this is only a scenario, but it seems pretty consistent imo. It's entirely logical for scum to claim Vig, in a game with 2 kills a night, even at this last stage. At least, it's far more logical, than suggesting we started the game with a Cop, Doc, Nurse, Vig and Miller. Thats obscenely power-role heavy for a mini normal.

BM

[Yosarian2]

I'm putting my chips in on Camn being scum, with either CTD or Yos. Which means if im lynched today, it could well be game-over. lol

BM

You still haven't made an argument for Camn being part of the mafia group that makes sense to me here, BM. You haven't explained why she would claim a role that would almost certanly be counterclaimed, or why she hasn't been counterclaimed, or who you think is actually the "real" vig/sk who is lying about it. You're spinning a theory that dosn't make any sense and dosn't seem to have any basis in reality.

Ugh. I'm not entirely sure why we're even still discussing this. It's incredibly straightforward.

Camn is Mafia and claims Vigilante. If the other kill is an SK, they will ascertain Camn is scum, and kill her. They won't counter-claim, because if they do, they have absolutely no chance of winning. If the other kill is another Mafia group, they might well believe that Camn is a Vig, and again, are unlikely to counter-claim, unless they feel they can get Camn lynched today, and win the game tonight. If the other kill is a Vig, there is no incentive to counter-claim, because they will be almost certain that Camn is lying. The Vig will presumably try and kill Camn tonight, but has no reason to out themselves today, as it makes them a prime candidate for NK, and a Vig can be a powerful role in this scenario. It's this very fact that makes me doubt the validity of Camn's claim. Why claim Vig then, when she wasnt really under any pressure, and the results claimed didnt make her anywhere near confirmed town? Why would she want suggestions on who to kill, when if she was town, a reasonable proportion of her fellow players would be scum?

Eh. The thing is, out of those 3 scenerios, vig is by far the most likely, objectivly speaking. And you might say that a vig "shouldn't counterclaim", but I think it's very likely they would; if there's 2 scum, then make sure you lynch one today, and try to kill the other one tonight, then who cares if you get killed.

Whatever the theory is, if someone claims your role, most townies counterclaim, either right away or else if they can't get the person lynched without doing so. They just do. Which is why Camn claiming the second kill would have been a horribly illogical play for her; honestly, if she was scum lying about that, she would do so knowing that she would almost certanly be counterclaimed, or at least that there would be a townie who would know she was lying, which is almost the same thing, honestly.

Basically, her roles is the only one that we actually know exists right now. It's the only one that's at all confirmed; we know there's 2 kills a night, but we don't have any evidence for a doc, we don't have any proof Kdub is a cop, or anything else.

The problem is that Camn hasn't alot to gain from this claim-except ensuring she gets to survive today, which, as i said, didnt seem like a big issue. Unless ofc, she is an NK immune godfather-one of the potential roles listed by Cretin.

Eh. Even if she was. Then if her buddy gets lynched today, tommorow the vig says "Ok, I tried to kill Camn last night and she didn't die. I'm the real vig." Or else if her buddy gets lynched today, the mafia might kill the real vig tonight (or the real SK, or whatever), which would also prove her as lying. No matter how you look at it, it would be a horrible position for her to put herself in, and for very little reason at all.

It's entirely logical for scum to claim Vig, in a game with 2 kills a night, even at this last stage.

I've never seen it. I can't imagine why scum would, either; the risks are incredibly high. Now, I've seen SK claim vig, that's easy; but mafia? Never.

At least, it's far more logical, than suggesting we started the game with a Cop, Doc, Nurse, Vig and Miller. Thats obscenely power-role heavy for a mini normal.

Right. Of course, if you're lying scum, then that also solves the problem.

[camn]

SCUMSLIP HO!!

If the other kill is another Mafia group, they might well believe that Camn is a Vig, and again, are unlikely to counter-claim, unless they feel they can get Camn lynched today, and win the game tonight.

BM, you are the only one trying to get me lynched today.. and here you equate lynching me today with winning tonight.

[CrashTextDummie]

Rigtht, I think I've heard enough. And since I'll be gone over the weekend with no guarantee to make it back before the deadline, I'm gonna end this day.

vote: BM

[Battle Mage]

SCUMSLIP HO!!

If the other kill is another Mafia group, they might well believe that Camn is a Vig, and again, are unlikely to counter-claim, unless they feel they can get Camn lynched today, and win the game tonight.

BM, you are the only one trying to get me lynched today.. and here you equate lynching me today with winning tonight.

lol, hey biatch, i aint no ho!

How on earth could that possibly be a scumslip?

6 players left- 2 mafia A - 2 mafia B - 2 town.

Mafia A is lynched today, leaving 1 going into night.

Mafia A has a 50% chance of shooting a member of Mafia B. If they dont, Mafia B will win, with 2 NK's. If Mafia B does get hit, there will be an endgame situation with 1 Mafia B, and 2 other players. So yeah, i guess Mafia B wouldnt necessarily win.

But all you've done, is emphasised my point further-that is, that another Mafia group would not counter-claim you either.

BM

[Battle Mage]

It's entirely logical for scum to claim Vig, in a game with 2 kills a night, even at this last stage.

I've never seen it. I can't imagine why scum would, either; the risks are incredibly high. Now, I've seen SK claim vig, that's easy; but mafia? Never.

What is the difference between an SK doing it, and Mafia doing it?

I just dont see it.

Right. Of course, if you're lying scum, then that also solves the problem.

I think we both know that, irrespective of my role, this game was stacked with the town.

BM

[Kdub]

I'm a bit wary of the fact that CTD didn't really share his opinions on any of the recent developments before hammering, but I was going to hammer within a couple days or so anyway. There's a decent chance I am NKed tonight. If so, and if BM is scum, my top suspects are CTD, Yos, Incog in that order. camn is still possibly an SK, but I would lean more toward believing her claim if BM is scum.

[Yosarian2]

What is the difference between an SK doing it, and Mafia doing it?

I just dont see it.

Because if an SK makes kills and then claims them, then no one in the game has any way of knowing they are lying.

If a mafia does, then at least one person does, either a pro-town vig or a SK, and in this setup a pro-town vig is more likely in the abstract (since it's in the role list).

You really don't see the difference between no one knowing you're lying and one pro-town person knowing for a fact that you're lying?

[Incognito]

I think we both know that, irrespective of my role, this game was stacked with the town.

I'm taking this quote to be an admission that BM was indeed scum? It seems more like he's lamenting about these feelings rather than being happy about them.

If BM does flip scum, then my feelings still stand -- I really think a CTD-kill is more likely to hit scum than a Yosarian2-kill. Good luck Tonight.

[Battle Mage]

What is the difference between an SK doing it, and Mafia doing it?

I just dont see it.

Because if an SK makes kills and then claims them, then no one in the game has any way of knowing they are lying.

If a mafia does, then at least one person does, either a pro-town vig or a SK, and in this setup a pro-town vig is more likely in the abstract (since it's in the role list).

You really don't see the difference between no one knowing you're lying and one pro-town person knowing for a fact that you're lying?

Yos...an SK is not protown. I cant conclude much about the setup from the roles listed, given he included a Nurse, which wasnt suggested.

Also,

Claim: Scum

obvobv

BM

[camn]

totally obv.

[Incognito]

Cha-ching.

[cr3t1n]

vote count

4 Battle Mage - Yosarian2, Incognito, camn, CrashTextDummy
1 Kdub - Battle Mage

1 not voteing - Kdub

u taek Battle Mage 2 the top of a bilding n push him off
he gos splat on the grownd n dyes
wen u go 2 his hows u see dummys with bullet holes in there fases bcuz he was a mafier godfather n shot ppl in the fase

it is now nite 3

it will finish on july 21 at midnite

[cr3t1n]

Yosarian2 tryed 2 talk 2 u be he cudnt bcuz he was shot in the fase
he dyed
he was a vaniller towny

its day 4 now

u need 3 voets 2 linch today

the dedline 4 day 4 is at midnite august 5

[CrashTextDummie]

So Incog is the second scum. The only question now is whether he deliberately no-killed in another gambiting effort, or wether SK-camn has NK-immunity.

If it's the latter, we're probably screwed. Either way I think we have to lynch a townie today if we want any hope of winning. That would be either myself or Kdub.

[Incognito]

If Camn killed Yosarian2, I'd like to know why she did so.

So Incog is the second scum. The only question now is whether he deliberately no-killed in another gambiting effort, or wether SK-camn has NK-immunity.

Interesting that you didn't seem to consider whether or not the Yosarian2 kill could have come from the mafia.

[CrashTextDummie]

It's obvious to me that the Yosarian2 kill didn't come from the mafia, because he makes zero sense as a mafia kill considering he was unconfirmed. The same would have been true for a kill on myself or on you.

[camn]

Hmm.

Incog.. I would like to defer answering your question for a little bit, if I may.

CTD.. your case on Incog? You state he is mafia.. why? Simply because you believe Kdub and Myself?
and what 'gambit' do you envision that the mafia would be pulling by no-killing?

Kdub.. I await your investigation results.

[Incognito]

CTD: Kdub still isn't confirmed either -- as far as I've seen, we have yet to see a Tailor-scum flip. Is there a reason why you think otherwise?

Further, I don't see why you'd think Yos2 wouldn't make sense coming from a mafia-scum kill; even though he only claimed Vanilla, he was one of the more defining factors leading to the BM-GF-scum lynch and there could have been plenty of other reasons a hypo-mafia scum might have killed him off in preference to anyone else as well. I can think of a few other things too that make me curious about your Yos2-not-being-killed-by-mafia interpretation, but I'll leave it at that for now.

camn: Fair enough. I too would like to see Kdub's investigation results.

[Kdub]

If camn is a NK-immune SK, then there is virtually no chance for the town to win, so I don't think we should really take that into consideration when deciding the best course of action.

I literally flipped a coin to decide whether to investigate CTD or Yos last night, since I figured they were both about equally likely to be killed, and any result on either of them would have provided the same amount of information. I ended up investigating Yos, and got a not-mafia result. I think this is actually better than if I had investigated CTD or if CTD had been the one killed, because there would always be doubt about my result since BM wasn't the tailor. Since we now know Yos was a townie though, that means the tailor definitely did not target him.

If we assume camn is the vig (and really, I think we need to at this point), that leaves CTD or Incog. I was leaning more toward CTD being the remaining scum, but now I'm having second thoughts. If CTD is scum, that means he either deliberately didn't kill, or he and camn both targeted Yos. Him killing Yos doesn't seem to make sense to me, because he and Yos were the two least confirmed players. And if he didn't kill, I think he almost certainly would have framed Yos, given that I was likely to investigate either Yos or himself. If Incog is scum, then I could see him killing off Yos and framing CTD (or vice versa). CTD also made a fair point yesterday about Incog's miller claim, and how he might think it was a safe claim if he knew there was already a tailor.

I will have to think about things more. Assuming camn is the vig, the ideal plan would be to lynch one of Incog or CTD and have camn NK the other. Obviously, that doesn't work if camn is an SK. Based on the interactions yesterday with BM, hopefully I am all but confirmed at this point (or at least more confirmed than anyone else).

camn, I would also like to hear your reasoning for killing Yos. I knew you were suspecting him yesterday, but I thought BM's flip might have changed your mind.

[camn]

Hmm.

I targeted Yos.
It was partly my long standing suspicion of him.. and partly contingency planning.....I anticipated, if I was wrong about him (which I was!), that you(Kdub) would have an easy choice with CTD and Incog as the survivors........an EASIER time than if you had Incog and Yos, if I had chosen CTD

and been wrong

!

I did not anticipate there only being one kill!
I can only assume the mafia also targeted Yos... or maybe it is a gambit?
But I can't see it being successful!
I think the scum made a huge mistake not killing me last night.

I am with you(kdub) that we almost certainly have a win in the bag.. unless you are fooling me.
Incog.. who is scum, you or CTD?

[Incognito]

vote: no lynch

To the mafiate who very likely targeted camn-SK last Night (whether it be Kdub or CTD): there's a very real chance that camn might have one-shot NK immunity instead of full NK immunity.

[camn]

Hmm.
Is THIS the gambit?

normally I would automatically agree with no-lynch, given 4 players.. but the possibility of 2 kills.. does it throw things off?

From my perspective.. No-lynch just makes my field a little wider for trying to hit scum tonight. 1/3 instead of 1/2......because I think I need to hit correctly if we NL or Mislynch...

[Incognito]

I'm not scum. You should know how to read me by now, camn. We've played in a number of games together.

If you're really a vig, your kill choice should be obvious. I think you're an SK though. I will not elaborate on this 'No Lynch' plan any further, but I DO think it gives Town the best chance at still possibly winning this game.

[Incognito]

And if you really thought this was a scum gambit, you'd gladly accept the 'no lynch' deal and just NK me tonight if you were town instead of "worrying about it" like you are now. You're an SK.