Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Nightfall]

Could everyone who is voting CDB because of his claim, just for clarity, answer me this?
Are you voting him because you think he is scum and he is faking his RB claim?
or are you voting him because you think he is scum even if he is an RB?

Pat > I will answer your question, but I would like to see how people answer the above question first. It will not change my response, but if I answer you first I could see it possibly effecting others' answers.

[Glork]

I think he is faking his claim. We know that the scums are 1 GF (inv immune and nightkill immune) and 2 Goons. So he can't be a scum roleblocker.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You really should read the front page, Nightfall.

[Mgm]

Mgm's posts are also sounding rather forced somehow. I dunno, MBL had this change of opinion, suddenly becoming certain that CDB is scum and saying he's found something damning in his posts, and Mgm doesn't seem the least bit excited about it, posting almost like an automated unit or something. It's weird. I very much dislike the narrow focus he has on getting Thesp lynched, seemingly only because of yesterdays ending.

I didn't find Ether's mention of post 869 convincing and I went back some 5-6 odd pages IIRC and I didn't find what what MBL was on about. I'm just not that excited about MBL's change of heart regarding CDB because I can't find it and he refuses to show it.

By the way, my focus on Thesp isn't narrow, just realistic, I'd very much like to lynch Glork and there's plenty of other people I suspect to different degrees, but I know Glork isn't getting lynched today so I'm trying to lynch another suspect that has reasonable lynch support and hope for better luck tomorrow - if I survive that long.

[Mgm]

Thesp's post 710:

Why would the only possible reaction be defensive, as you seem to imply here? What was it about my "accusations" that made them appear to be scum trying to incite reactions rather than town trying to get reactions?

I'm saying that I would have been righteously indignant (easily confused with defensive) at baseless accusations such as the ones you were making. I feel they were more likely scum reaction-baiting because you stuck with them so vigourously. Town should not be calling for someone to die so repeatedly and vehemently on such a lack of basis.

Why are scum more likely to be adamant and vocal? My experience has been the opposite, particularly because scum know the particular wagon-victim is town, want to push it along, but don't want to be associated too strongly with it. Your behavior D1 is consistent with this.

"I wouldn't do that as scum" = WIFOM.

Who else was silent on Day 1? Please jumpstart my potentially-faulty memory and help us identify others who were doing as such, so we can question them as well. Otherwise, I would have presume this statement is taking an unsubstantiated cheap shot at me.

Fritzler only made 2 more posts than me on Day 1, and at least half of those were noncontent.

Thesp's post 731: Keeps pushing the obviously wrong Professor Plum bloody knife example on Patrick.

Patrick, let's remember that that quote was in response to a similarly phrase hypothetical situation. You do make a good point about his lack of defense. Not sure yet if that is enough to lynch him for.

[Mgm]

Nothing is ever certain, Mgm. But there are three scum and there is onl 1/3rd of a Roleblocker. That's 90%, damn good odds.

That's faulty statistics. The chance any of us is scum is equal. The chance he is a role blocker is much higher for him than any of the other players.

I know I'm not scum, so the chance for any of the other players to be scum is 3 in 10 alive --> approx. 30%
I know I am not the role blocker, so the chance he is one is 1 in 10 alive--> 10%
If you believe the real roleblocker would counterclaim to ensure a scum lynch this chance increases to 100% (provided we do have a roleblocker as final power role)
Nowhere do I get 90% and the chance he is a roleblocker significantly increases if you make one assumption that assumes a town roleblocker wants to prevent the lynch of an innocent. The chance someone is scum is equal for all players and doesn't increase by the claim.

[Mgm]

I'm still most uncomfortable with ChannelDelibird, particular with his actions D1 (following a townie's bandwagon with support and little other contribution

I admit my play on D1 was bad, but I don't think you can really criticise people for the AndrewS wagon.

and deliberately not reacting to something he knew was to elicit reaction).

You mean I should have gotten defensive and let you wagon me for overreacting?

His D2 play is consistent with how I would expect scum to play had they been lurkish on D2 and trying to make up for it. I am trying to ascertain if it would be consistent with townie play, and I don't feel like it is.

Then how exactly would you expect a townie to play if they had been lurkish on D1 and trying to make up for it on D2?

I feel good with a

vote: Thesp

Especially the answers to these last to questions are in my view townish from CDB and support my suspicions on Thesp.

[Mgm]

My apologies for the multiposting, but I've now finished reading CDB's posts in isolation. I first thought MBL's idea was that CDB tried to incite a bandwagon with his AndrewS FOS on day one without seeming too suspicious before jumping on, but a quick look at day one shows that a bandwagon was already forming before he FOSsed so that is out of the question. I didn't find anything else.

Unfortunately, I'm developing a nagging feeling that CDB might be scum and that someone's going to try to accuse me of being the GF and lynch me tomorrow if I fail to participate in his lynch. That doesn't do my paranoia or my heart any good. MBL and Glork seem to be all set to go for my jugular if I make a wrong decision today.

[Mgm]

Nothing is ever certain, Mgm. But there are three scum and there is onl 1/3rd of a Roleblocker. That's 90%, damn good odds.

That's faulty statistics. The chance any of us is scum is equal.

The chance he is a role blocker is much higher for him than any of the other players.

<snip>

Oops, mistake. I corrected my faulty maths in the post, but didn't return to the first few lines afterwards.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There's nothing wrong with my maths. There is, on average, 0.33 of a Roleblocker in this game currently and 3 scum. Channelblocker and Channelscum would both claim blocker, which he did. Chance of him being scum: 3/3.33 = 10/11, close to 90%.

[Thesp]

(At this point, Channel looks screwed. I don't really expect a godfather to go this far on a limb to save a goon, as Mgm's arguments and sunken cost fallacy counterwagon would imply. I find those incomprehensible from either side, really; remind me to read something with Mgmscum.)

This feels very, very odd. Noted for future reference.

CDB is doing what I would expect from scum to be honest. I think a pro town powerole would put up more of a fight than this. He hasn't been willing to do as people asked him and give detailed opinions on other players, maybe for fear of incriminating scumbuddies.

Quoted for massive, massive amounts of truthery.

If you believe the real roleblocker would counterclaim to ensure a scum lynch this chance increases to 100% (provided we do have a roleblocker as final power role)

I think it is far, far more likely (and far better) for our final power role to remain silent rather than counterclaim,

especially

if they are a backup cop. Note that it's also irrelevant as to whether or not our final power role is a roleblocker or something else, that person already knows CDB to be lying.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

A roleblocker is way more expendable, though, especially after that no-lynch.

[Thesp]

A roleblocker is way more expendable, though, especially after that no-lynch.

I'm not sure I agree with this argument, as a successful block would be a cop-like investigation. Of course, a roleblocker would be best to block people less-suspected to be scum (as almost certainly the mafia are sending out their least-suspected members to do the killings), which is another reason I doubt CDB's claim.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Compared to a cop and a deputy, the roleblocker is weak, even if he's useful an sich.

[Thesp]

Compared to a cop and a deputy, the roleblocker is weak, even if he's useful an sich.

Agreed.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

ChannelDelibird: 4 (Thesp Fritzler MrBuddyLee Glork)
Thesp: 2 (ChannelDelibird Mgm)
Zindaras: 1 (Patrick)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 1 (Nightfall)


Not voting: Ether Zindaras CES

Looking for

6

votes for a lynch!

[Mr Stoofer]

There has been no significant movement in the Vote Count for over a week now, which means...

Deadline:

Wednesday 4th April 5pm BST

.

BST = British Summer Time = London Time = GMT +1

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Someone should probably vote for Channel now.

[Mgm]

Compared to a cop and a deputy, the roleblocker is weak, even if he's useful an sich.

Agreed.

It's still more powerful than a vanilla townie.

[Patrick]

Stoofer has a weird way of deciding when to deadline a game. Tomorrow I must remember to move my vote around a bit to fill the quotas. I think we need everyone to rather quickly give their opinion on CDB and his previous posts, and say whether they've spotted anything that jumps out. I have to say my gut is telling me he's scum because of the claim and his attitude post claim, but haven't spotted anything completely damning despite looking through all his posts a few times.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

M-maybe you should vote for him?

[Patrick]

Don't worry, I promise I'll be back before the deadline.

[Nightfall]

Compared to a cop and a deputy, the roleblocker is weak, even if he's useful an sich.

Agreed.

It's still more powerful than a vanilla townie.

Agreed.

CES > Yes I read the first page, I was hoping someone else would miss that.

Pat > I can't find anything really scummy in CDB's posts. I would like to hear MBL's reasoning for his suspicions. At the same time I don't find anything overly town-ike in CDB's posts. I'm not entirely sure yet if I believe his claim though.

[Glork]

Don't worry, I promise I'll be back before the deadline.

I'm really freaking sick of hearing this from people.

[Patrick]

With 6 days until deadline, it was pretty obviously a joke.