Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Thestatusquo]

Also @ran will be getting to your desired Iso of Wgeurtz/davsto later today.

[Ranmaru]

Thanks, but I'm actually starting to think I'm wrong on Davsto. Still right on Screenplay and Marquiz though.

[Llamarble]

If we want to have a second wagon today I think I would like it to be on Davsto. Marquis isn't here; AD and CES aren't scummy enough, LQ and Eddie I and others have reservations about or townreads on. But Srceen is fine for today. Davsto is more an absence of towniness read.

[Ranmaru]

The scum are [Screenplay > Marqus > Postie]. Let me break it down.

Marquis

:
Marquis enters voting North following Postie, with weak reasoning in his #24. This is in response to Postie asking why he voted North, not a good response. Marquis states he is having a hard time getting into the game in his#381 but lurks for quite a bit and doesn't try to get back into it, which he admits to in #631 . He talks about who is scum on his wagon, LQ in his #455. He is sidelining while not really pushing anything, like in his #877 and then unvotes in his #879 and nothing else. He has progression for LQ but he never follows up with it. In general, he seems more interested in getting a good position in town, fails and gets wagoned, and then lurks out to survive and dodge the lynch.

T-chill

:
A weak connection, Tchill explains he doesn't get why Llama is making associations to Marquiz in his #161. His #163 shows he wasn't reading thoroughly, and might have been pseudo defending a buddy. Tchill states in his #416 that he is still scum reading Postie or WGEURTZ, yet he never mentioned a scumread of WGEURTZ before. He responded to a post of WGEURTZ, but it doesn't match progression wise. His #568 it's a weird vote when you consider that it doesn't have pro-town motivation [He doesn't wait for the replacement to get a read on him, and he doesn't have a progression on WGEURTZ].

T-chill voting WGEURTZ may have been a red-herring

.

Postie

:

Postie's early game looks good, that I can say. She votes WGEURTS (probably for lurking), and then votes Marquis on a re-read and rolls with it. She then moves on to #204 LQ, stating he is more capable then he has been this game, and also states her team mates don't think he's being townie. She questions town why T-chill is scum in her #344 Then she votes Eddie in her #346 for sitting back and saying things from the side lines. She's been scumhunting, so that's good. She has a good position in town, and I felt she was town, and wouldn't have thought any differently until lately. She focuses on tunnelling Eddie. She posts that it's scummy that T-chill sits on his hands after voting Postie, in her #586. She says she is only held back by why he would pick scum. In her #769 she states she has a reads list but would rather not state it, which is as stated by Shea, is anti-town. She hard town reads Screen play via RC team read in her #1133, which makes me concerned she is making this big push on Eddie to save Screenplay. If he flips scum, there is reason to look in her direction due to that post. In her #1137 she states she didn't find anything readable from T-chill yet above, she already stated that she did find him scummy, just was held back by his preference. She wouldn't expect him to take it. She feels LQ wagon is more inspired then Marquis or T-chill, and feels Eddie is the true lynch in her #535 535.

So in general, she plays an overall good seeming town game, yet at the same time she's trying to block town's progress in finding actual scum, while having the appearance of being town. This is supported by her declining the request to provide her reads list. She is in the right position to try and move votes to Eddie, and she's put a ton of effort into it, to help counter the push on Screen play. I find it disingenous that she states T-chill has no readable content, when she herself had stated he was scummy but she was held back due to what she thinks or knows he would choose. She distances Marquis by voting him on a re-read, doesn't mention him but does ask him to look into Eddie in her #463. So she rolls with the wagon, leaves it and never talks about her read on Marquis ever again. So upon Screen flipping scum, Postie is scum. We only need to lynch 2 scum to win, but I feel it's good to know who all three scum may be so that we can see who else is correct and therefore town [CES, for example]. If Screenplay flips town, I will have less reason to believe in Postie being scum, as I would then find her counter as town motivated.

[Ranmaru]

So, that means my reads list changes a little bit.

Ranmaru
Llamarble
TSQ
Lycan

Dunnstral
NSG
Gamma
CES
Davsto

Eddie
LQ

AD
Postie
Marquis
Screenplay

[Screenplay > Marquis > Postie > AD]

[Ranmaru]

So once again, Screenplay is the best play for today.

[Thestatusquo]

Postie would be a good fit for LQ buddy if we get a LQ scum flip. Also Tchill.

The only problem with that is that Postie seemed very town to me until this latest strong eddie push at DL and her refusal to give a full read list.

tl:dr I really like Ran's analysis on her even though it contradicts my own read, which ran acknowledges: "So in general, she plays an overall good seeming town game, yet at the same time she's trying to block town's progress in finding actual scum, while having the appearance of being town."

[Llamarble]

In line with earlier posts about Postie playing this game the way I would play it as scum (strong earlygame cuz easiest time for scum content, then whiteknight someone gamma because that's pretty easy to look good doing as scum, then push a lynchbait like Eddie because the case literally writes itself I couldn't even help casemaking against him and I think he's probably town), I went all out in team mafia 2 white flag trying to save a scummy lurker buddy (It was TSQ wasn't it heh) from getting lynched, then ended up eating rope for it (thanks to CES and to Zachtown not following expected pattern at the crucial time). And my subconscious yelled really loud about Postie for a while too :3

But as Ran says, that possibility reinforces Screen for today.

[Thestatusquo]

Also NSG played a town start the game and has kind of disappeared and done next to nothing as we approach deadline.


Something like this is where I'm at.

Llamarble
Ranmaru
Lycan

Gamma
CES
Davsto
Postie
AD
NSG

Marquis
Dunn
Eddie

LQ
Screenplay

[Ranmaru]

I also really like Gamma's #1138.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I really like how this game is going; I think we're well set up to win even if the first day or two don't go how we hope. We've got:
Llamarble
TSQ
Ran
For supertowns who will probably eat first 3 NKs and I trust you two to lead town well if I go first
Gamma
Dunnstral
NSG
Lycan
For players who haven't cemented themselves to the degree of the Three (partly due to activity disparity) but are making a good contribution and are fairly strong probtowns.
LQ
Eddie
Are the lynchbaity ones, the ones who might get lynched even if they're town, but people are acknowledging that they have some scumminess while also acknowledging they are the type we might mislynch if we're gonna mislynch people. That's a good place for them to be in.
AD
Postie
CES
The good but hard to read players; whichever of them is town will help town a lot with winning, but the word is out - these players are dangerous and town isn't going to leave them alone to endgame or underestimate them.
Marquis
Davsto
Original Lurkers (though Davsto isn't a lurker anymore) who lack major towntells. There is still hope for redemption but as things are they'll deservedly probably spend quite a bit of time in trouble and hopefully town will come to correct conclusion on them.
Screenplay
Our first lynch; neither he nor his predecessor have really towned. I believe in the red flip.
But even if it doesn't come, I believe in this town to win the game, this is a well put together town.
Guessing 1 scum in Original Lurkers and 1 in the Good Hardreads, but regardless I am happy and I think it's time to

=========[]

[Thestatusquo]

Llamarble I'd like you to reevaluate NSG.

[Ranmaru]

I am also enjoying this game and am ready to end Screenplay. I would like NSG to finish catching up though, as her lack of presence is a concern.

[Llamarble]

Took a look at NSG, she is like Davsto (some reads and some reasons but nothing megatown).
But I think she shows a bit more investment than Davsto does.
Couple of the ones I liked.
Trying to make people who are getting it wrong get it right.
Struggling to read lynchbait with concern about direction lynchbait can send town.
"Instinctually doesn't feel like the kind of thing scum would even think to fake." Is good stuff too.

I'm willing to call Lycan's 430 town. I understand a couple of reservations people have with it, (6 scum reads, CES not being mentioned etc.) but it looks, feels, and has meaty arguments that flow and read town.

could you go into more depth specifically about what makes it town from you? the same question goes out to others who expressed the same opinion because i feel like townreading that post is a mistake and it's a mistake that i definitely would have made in the past, where just because a post looks like it's contributing a lot and people add to the discussion overall, that makes it town. i'm not saying that's what you're thinking but i don't see much else of a reason to townread it, and i think that the reality of the situation is that the inconsistencies between 225 and 430 are consequential enough to say that one of the two was faked / wasn't made coming from a town perspective.


i'm having trouble getting a solid read on quick. on an objective level i'd say he's been scummy, but i keep wondering how much of that comes from playstyle and mathdino says that he's town for sure. i also get the gut feeling that this is one of those games where town is actually on track when it comes to finding scum but ends up getting distracted by the townies who do outrageous things and end up getting lynched (you can all probably can think of a game like this), and quick feels like he might be that outrageous townie.

@postie, if you're interested i was townreading eddie earlier on for this:

by the way, anyone else feel like 179 is a really weird thought? it's hard to put into words – it kind of feels like a pointless thing to say / comment on, maybe.

I was wondering who else was going to pick up on that.

the fact that he noticed this, didn't make a post about it and then made this comment about it just instinctually doesn't feel like the kind of thing scum would even think to fake. granted, there's always the chance that it wasn't faked and eddie could still be scum – scum still notice inconsistencies or a really weird tone even if they know that someone is town (and perhaps especially if they know that it's coming from their buddy). there's also the chance that i'm underselling eddie's scumgame, which i'm unfamiliar with.

on a reread of his iso perhaps this is too minor to justify more than a slight townlean, but i'm still not convinced on him being scum and i still think there are far more likely scum candidates.

So I am good with keeping her in middle of the probtown category; certainly not a "never-lynch" since giving some reads and reactions and reasons, even if pretty nice ones, can be fakeable and I'm unfamiliar with her scum-prowess.

[Srceenplay]

How do you expect me to catch up with constant threats of a hammer?
It’s unreasonable.

[Srceenplay]

Tsq and Llamarble are doing really well of bouncing ideas of each other.
To bad they are wrong and not helpful.

[Thestatusquo]

Tsq and Llamarble are doing really well of bouncing ideas of each other.
To bad they are wrong and not helpful.

This is disingenuous. First of all, I have caught up under threat of hammer before. Second, you're not even at L-1. Third, you should want the town to know your reads even if you're still eventually lynched if you're town.

[Srceenplay]

I really wish some other town would speak up and not be apathetic.

[Thestatusquo]

I wish you'd stop saying that. It's ALSO disingenuous.

A large group of people deciding you're scum != apathy.

Absolutely no one in this game is apathetic about the game itself OR your slot. We just think you're scum.

[Srceenplay]

Tsq and Llamarble are doing really well of bouncing ideas of each other.
To bad they are wrong and not helpful.

This is disingenuous. First of all, I have caught up under threat of hammer before. Second, you're not even at L-1. Third, you should want the town to know your reads even if you're still eventually lynched if you're town.

I’m starting to think you are not town.
I don’t like how you two have been tearing me in this replace in.
I think you guys are being disingenuous.
What makes you think I don’t want anyone to know my reads? I haven’t hid anything and don’t plan on it.
I recalled that I am at L-1.

[Srceenplay]

I wish you'd stop saying that. It's ALSO disingenuous.

A large group of people deciding you're scum != apathy.

Absolutely no one in this game is apathetic about the game itself OR your slot. We just think you're scum.

In my POV it is. I don’t think I have had the chance to engage with half the player base.

[Ranmaru]

You just need to catch up and give reads but you have avoided that for the longest time.

[Thestatusquo]

Because you're complaining about how unreasonable we're being wanting you to catch up. I'm saying its not unreasonable, and you're not even under the threat of hammer you're complaining about.

Then read the thread. The fact that you're under pressure should have no bearing on whether you can catch up or not. The fact that you are suggesting it does it troubling.

[Thestatusquo]

Tsq and Llamarble are doing really well of bouncing ideas of each other.
To bad they are wrong and not helpful.

This is disingenuous. First of all, I have caught up under threat of hammer before. Second, you're not even at L-1. Third, you should want the town to know your reads even if you're still eventually lynched if you're town.

I’m starting to think you are not town.
I don’t like how you two have been tearing me in this replace in.
I think you guys are being disingenuous.
What makes you think I don’t want anyone to know my reads? I haven’t hid anything and don’t plan on it.
I recalled that I am at L-1.

Also, this post was meant to quote this one, not the one it did quote.:

How do you expect me to catch up with constant threats of a hammer?
It’s unreasonable.

Not sure what happened.

[Srceenplay]

You just need to catch up and give reads but you have avoided that for the longest time.

That is untrue.
I have given reads. I have been trying to catch up. Halfway there. I haven’t been here for even 48hours yet. So I do not see I you can honestly believe I’m avoiding anything.