Newbie 2085 - Game Over

[Micc]

Votecount 3.01

Not Voting (5) -

frogsfrogs, T3, Laplacian, Dwlee99, fferyllt

With 5 players alive it takes 3 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2022-01-12 20:10:00).

Prodding T3.

[T3]

Where is the t of 3

following along but forgetting to post

[T3]

lap is frozen scum.

[fferyllt]

I'm concerned about the overall lack of posting. There was a good reason for it yesterday because the elim was a foregone conclusion on obv and eventually confessed scum, and we had a mason to protect.

We still have a mason to protect, but it's time to put some gamesolving effort in.

[Dwlee99]

lap is frozen scum.

this might be the case

[T3]

i don't have much to say rn. i'll do some more iso's

[fferyllt]

I started some double isos with Prism/not known and living slots but didn't get very far.

yet.

Will try to finish up and write up my thoughts about it tomorrow.

[Laplacian]

Hey, I've been doing that too. Ran through all of Prism / NK15 ISOs and votes. They're dead now, but the voting patterns of confscum should be useful. Prism was hard to read and only had 3 total votes, so I'll mainly focus on NK15's patterns.

First post, Prism opens with a legit vote on Meteor Tome (/T3). They vote Taly early on, and have a big argument with hunterr (/MegAzumaril) later, voting them. They replace out with NK15

NK's first post (#274) asserts that frogs and Winfried are town, says no scumreads, and votes Dragons for "giving reads with no justifications". Hunterr starts a Taly wagon, NK joins it, but then promptly tries to push a Dragons wagon again. They argue directly with Dragons for a bit. Next day, without prompting they say "I don't like my push on dragon anymore." and start an ahhlo wagon (#370). So far, I'd characterize their posting and accusations as low effort. They hopped on some simple wagons and tried to start a few as well.

However, their next post is a big accusation of me (#399). Unlike their last few posts which were generally abandoned quickly, they spend the next eight posts - almost a quarter of their total posts - pushing me hard, requoting their entire argument to ensure that people know why I'm sus. After the wagon starts to switch to fferyllt they hop on, switching their vote.

Finally, they CC cop and vote Meg (880). Even with that revelation, they throw in "Their partner is probably Laplacian". Next post throws in "fferyllt was town" for good measure. The rest of their posting is mainly contentless as they know they're going down.

Now, vote counts. Of the currently living players they voted for:
2x T3/ahhlo/meteor slot
2x Dwlee/Dragons
2x fferyllt/Taly
1x for me
and 0x on frogsfrogs

[Laplacian]

So, I know some of you are sus of me, but if I was NK's scum partner they spent a

lot

of time effort trying to bus me. Even while CCing cop they had to throw in a dig, despite me being in no danger of getting wagoned at that time.

Now, they didn't vote frogsfrogs at all. While frogs could be the other scum, I think it's more likely that it was pointless to try to get a frogs wagon going, as they've been on most people's "most town" lists since well before NK replaced in. Of the meteor/ahhlo/T3 votes, one was Prism on meteor, and the other was NK on ahhlo. The ahhlo situation was sufficiently messy that I don't see this as indicative either way toward's T3's alignment. Dragon received two substance-light votes with no real effort to get anyone else on the wagon. I could easily see this being some light bussing for plausible deniability later.

And now the meat of the situation. fferyllt. We've already talked about NK's CC coming at the perfect time to derail the ff train, but I didn't appreciate how truly tight that timeline was until now. For context, Meg claimed cop on #668 and NK votes for ff on #753. Now read posts #876 through #880. I vote ff, bringing her to E-1. Mod posts the vote count, making it public and undeniable that ff is at E-1. fferyllt posts immediately, defending herself. The next post is NK counterclaiming cop. I know it's been floated before, but I can't see anyway that counterclaim's timing is logical without assuming ff is the other scum, probably roleblocker.

[Laplacian]

Also, I'm not frozen. I live in the desert, have a nice space heater, and am quite toasty thank you very much.

[frogsfrogs]

I'm not sure if the amount of pushing that Not Known did on Lap is actually too far for the slots to be partners? I'm going through posts for prism/not known/laplacian all together right now, though.

Can you explain your overall analysis, Lap? You think that the way that NK pushed for you is visibly too much, but that this likely means someone who was voted for

more often

by the NK slot is likely the partner?

[Laplacian]

Scum often like to cast some light votes for other scum, it gives them good plausible deniability for later. But they also don't want a wagon, so repeated light votes, where they either quickly abandon it or don't have much substance behind the vote feel indicative of this kind of softbussing. It's not a guarantee of course; Hunterr periodically tossed out votes on frogs and his slot was mason, but I think it's something to keep an eye out for. And considering NK counterclaimed to make a 1-for-1 trade, I think a softbus is exactly the kind of gambit he'd try to do. So it boils down to substance - 2 mild votes on Dragon could be nice cover for either of them. Nothing definitive, but it made me like, 5% more sus of Dragon. However, I can't see a world where 24% of his posts in a row accusing me of being scum is that kind of softbus play.

[frogsfrogs]

At this point in the game I feel very in limbo.

[...]

Laplacian/Meteor give a lot of reasoning but I don't feel strongly about them either way. I townlean Meteor's defense of Binatog but am concerned it is TMI. Both are likely town for activity+reasoning by default. I've been over Binatog.

[...]

How is this argument between Prism and hunterr supposed to work anyway; it seems both heated and trivial at the same time? Ultimately, hunterr's initial suspicion on Prism started with a few posts within the first 24 hours. (Now, not to sound like a broken record, but if we want to laser-focus on an early sus posts, how about we come back to Bin's softclaim that they yet again brushed off?)

To me, this whole debate on the last two pages between hunterr and Prism feels like they're both posting so much that there's more and more content to nitpick over and thus find anything you disagree with. Even if Prism is trying to become the town leader as Dragons postulated, I still think that's less suspicious than the relatively low content we've seen from some posters like Taly and Meteor. Really, I feel the same way about the push against hunterr: he's aggressive, but zeroing in on wording isn't sus, and he's thrown out a lot more comments and thoughts then just interrograting Prism.

Reads and their explainations are always good to post and share and I think there's some valid debate here, but I can't help but feel both pushes are distracting us from more important conversations and analyses.

Prism and Laplacian interacted pretty little, which is notable. A lot of Prism's reads at the point of 115 are null, including the bundle of Laplacian with the Meteor / T3 slot, but she makes a specific point about Meteor's behavior re: Binatog's soft and says nothing about Lap's opposite reaction to the situation. She next says that she'd specifically be willing to vote Lap, if it were wanted. It seems like [1. Taly, 2. Laplacian] is the preferred vote order she's offering, but it's very quickly moved away from, as the STD/Dwlee and then hunterr/Meg slot become large focuses, as well as Taly/ffery remaining so. I don't consider 119 to be one that Prism couldn't have made about her partner.

Laplacian makes minor engagements with Prism's posts but doesn't vocalize any specific read on the slot. 224 sticks out to me though, in retrospect. Lap does a

lot

of dismissing arguments against Prism instead of taking stances and then his read on hunterr feels pretty half-hearted. "He's aggressive, but zeroing in on wording isn't sus" seems almost like a TMI, the way he doesn't comment at all on the wording that's being zeroed in on + takes for granted that hunterr's other posts are better. If it's scum!Laplacian, it makes a lot of sense for him to take the opposite side to his partner Prism in this situation too. This isn't to say that I think Lap is for sure the partner, but, looking at just the time with Prism around so far, I'm not seeing reasons he couldn't be, and 224's not a great post.

Lap's inflexibility with reads that's been pointed out before is definitely my biggest concern. It's something I super failed to achieve in my first scumgame. It's been a bit hard to put effort into this game recently and it takes me forever to get my thoughts into words sometimes but I want to be looking for that when I put together his posts with NK, too.

[frogsfrogs]

[...] However, I can't see a world where 24% of his posts in a row accusing me of being scum is that kind of softbus play.

Do you think NK's push really endangered you, though?

[frogsfrogs]

Reading through specifically when Not Known and Laplacian voted each other, I'm seeing Lap's rebuttals as looking pretty genuine. The arguments that he makes back are sound and the emotional quality seems real.

No shit #378 was surface reads. I explicitly said "we should probably all start stating cases and readlists" and I've made my case against Binatog clear. For having my quote right there, you're really good at missing the first sentence. We were running out of time for day 1 vote, and only have a reprieve from this ticking clock because of so many dropouts. I want to know where everyone stands as we start voting. You want an in-depth explanation of any read, how about asking? I've been nothing but forthright with presenting details and clarifications when people either asked, or even just seemed confused about my statements.

The dropped argument thing is also garbage. I briefly summarized my dropped argument in #377 as "...predicated on Taly's lack of activity, but if it's enough to replace out that's a different case entirely." Laying low is not the same as dropping out, and thus my initial argument didn't work. For someone diving into my iso and making cases, seems

really

convenient to miss the post right above the one you tunnel on.

Meanwhile, you've been in for half the time I have and bounced around 5 different votes with the flimsiest of justifications. You're throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.
VOTE: Not Known 15

<massive repost>
This is the case.

Man, NK again reposts their "case" against me while ignoring my rebuttal. This entire schtick against me is based on omissions. Missing a key sentence, missing a post in a 3 post series while quoting the other 2, and now missing entire counter-argument. The first time I was willing to call an accident, but this is just blatant cherry-picking and tunneling on me. Especially when my rebuttal included a vote against them; that's not an easy thing to miss

What I don't like very much is the way that Laplacian unvotes between the two above posts, chalking his reaction up to OMGUS. I think his analysis of why NK's push was bad is a good one, and him being so easily swayed from it does make me raise an eyebrow?

[quote="In [url=viewtopic.php?p=13179063#p13179063]
Laplacian: Your vote is still on a pretty heavy towner. If you've read my last argument for that I hope you gave it some consideration. If you did, it's your vote, that's fine. But if not, please do. Your arguments against him are criticising behavior "throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks" is bad in the real world, but in mafia, on day 1, it's perfectly fine to try as townie and definitely better than nothing.

You're right. I stand by my rebuttal to NK's accusations, but the vote itself was an OMGUS vote combined with some IRL grumpiness from my microwave breaking. I'm not completely sold on NK being town, but you make good points.

UNVOTE: [/quote]

[frogsfrogs]

Ah. Formatting error for 433, the quote box is Laplacian's quote of WINfried and the below is a quote of Laplacian.

[Dwlee99]

I rolled an (unverifiable) die that said laplacian is scum

[Dwlee99]

Votecount 1.14

MegAzumarill (5) -

Not Known 15, Tejate Raichu, WINfried, frogsfrogs, Laplacian

Not Known15 (2) -

MegAzumarill, Save The Dragons

fferyllt (1) -

T3

Not Voting (1) -

fferyllt

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

An elimination has been achieved.

yknow it is strange that both night kills were on the wagon of the mason

what's with that

[Dwlee99]

this game will be like twenty times harder if t3 is scum tbh

[Dwlee99]

this game will be like twenty times harder if t3 is scum tbh

[Dwlee99]

T3 when you get a chance can you explain your progression on frogfrog

[T3]

i didn't like a few of frog's original posts but then they made some p genuine posts

[Dwlee99]

ok

VOTE: laplacian

[T3]

VOTE: laplacian
the game just ends here i think, a lot of stuff points to him.

[Dwlee99]

I poe'd it. Hbu?