Mini 835- The Mafia's Coming to Town! (Finished!)

[Goatrevolt]

I promise I will claim in my first post tomorrow, assuming I survive the night.

How about that?

Why wait? I believe the town has enough information to win the game. You claiming would put the nail in the scum's coffin.

@Main: I see nothing there that makes me think you're town. I do see quite a bit of WIFOM though.

t o c a n w b d i w i c i y.

[Goatrevolt]

I also read this game while tripping face on family fluff LSD. This isn't a reason why I'm not scum, but it is a reason why I'll be smugly contented and amused when this game ends and Goat is an SK, and Red is scum.

Prepare to be not-smugly discontented and unamused.

[Red_Dye]

Vote Goat

[CoCo]

Nuwen, why are you suggesting Red is scum and you aren't? Evidence please.

Also, LSD is fun. I just don't think I could play Mafia when under the effects. I can barely do so drunk!

[Goatrevolt]

Vote Goat

Hello. Are you scum?

I'm at L-1 for reference. Is it too much to ask that I not be hammered?

[CoCo]

Vote Goat

That's not cool, Red. Not cool at all.
I really hope there is a doc in this game. Its imperitive I get another investigation.

Vote Eldarad.

[CoCo]

Oh, I won't be hammering you Goat. I suggest no one else does either.

[Goatrevolt]

Oh, I won't be hammering you Goat. I suggest no one else does either.

Thanks.

I think all 3 scum are on my wagon, actually. Up to Korts to decide.

[Red_Dye]

Vote Goat

That's not cool, Red. Not cool at all.
I really hope there is a doc in this game. Its imperitive I get another investigation.

Vote Eldarad.

He's done nothing to change my mind that he is by far the best kill. I'm just putting my money where my mouth is. A bunch of soft claims mean nothing. Tomorrow he can come out and be like "lol I'm the sk" and it won't matter if town has to go to night to win anyway.

[Goatrevolt]

If we lynch a townie today, then the town has to rely on the SK to have any chance of winning this game.

Even if you think I'm 85% likely to be the SK, it's simply not worth it to risk that by lynching me. I don't see how anyone could possibly be positive enough that I'm the SK off of nothing more than a BP claim to risk losing the game by lynching me.

[Red_Dye]

If we lynch a townie today, then the town has to rely on the SK to have any chance of winning this game.

Even if you think I'm 85% likely to be the SK, it's simply not worth it to risk that by lynching me. I don't see how anyone could possibly be positive enough that I'm the SK off of nothing more than a BP claim to risk losing the game by lynching me.

If we don't lynch you today then we have to rely on your supposed ability to not lose. So if we turn our thoughts into percents then if I'm over 50% I'm voting you.

[CoCo]

I promise I will claim in my first post tomorrow, assuming I survive the night.

How about that?

Why wait? I believe the town has enough information to win the game. You claiming would put the nail in the scum's coffin.

@Main: I see nothing there that makes me think you're town. I do see quite a bit of WIFOM though.

t o c a n w b d i w i c i y.

I see nothing here that can allude to

K

illing/killer or

S

erial.

[CoCo]

Red, what are your thoughts on Nuwen?

[Goatrevolt]

If we lynch a townie today, then the town has to rely on the SK to have any chance of winning this game.

Even if you think I'm 85% likely to be the SK, it's simply not worth it to risk that by lynching me. I don't see how anyone could possibly be positive enough that I'm the SK off of nothing more than a BP claim to risk losing the game by lynching me.

If we don't lynch you today then we have to rely on your supposed ability to not lose. So if we turn our thoughts into percents then if I'm over 50% I'm voting you.

Except this isn't true. We're still lynching scum today. Even if I was vanilla, the town has almost as good of chance of winning from lynching Eldarad today over successfully lynching a SK.

[Red_Dye]

I promise I will claim in my first post tomorrow, assuming I survive the night.

How about that?

Why wait? I believe the town has enough information to win the game. You claiming would put the nail in the scum's coffin.

@Main: I see nothing there that makes me think you're town. I do see quite a bit of WIFOM though.

t o c a n w b d i w i c i y.

I see nothing here that can allude to

K

illing/killer or

S

erial.

If hes the serial killer why would his anagram have to be truthful? It could just be a bunch of random letters for all we know.[/spoiler]

[Red_Dye]

If we lynch a townie today, then the town has to rely on the SK to have any chance of winning this game.

Even if you think I'm 85% likely to be the SK, it's simply not worth it to risk that by lynching me. I don't see how anyone could possibly be positive enough that I'm the SK off of nothing more than a BP claim to risk losing the game by lynching me.

If we don't lynch you today then we have to rely on your supposed ability to not lose. So if we turn our thoughts into percents then if I'm over 50% I'm voting you.

Except this isn't true. We're still lynching scum today. Even if I was vanilla, the town has almost as good of chance of winning from lynching Eldarad today over successfully lynching a SK.

See, I don't know how town could post this after I've posted the numbers so many times.

[CoCo]

But if you're scum, Red, your argument is just as invalidated as Goat's.

I hereby refuse to listen to numbers crunched by people named Goatrevolt, Red_Dye, and Nuwen.

[CoCo]

Or Eldarad... but that goes without saying.

[Red_Dye]

Look at the numbers. My alignment is irrelevant to their truth.

[Goatrevolt]

If we lynch the SK today, then we put ourselves directly into a Lylo situation against the mafia. With Eldarad being obvious scum, we would basically be pitting our chance to win on making the correct lynch in 2 days with 3-4 alive.

If we lynch Eldarad today, we put ourselves in a situation where cross kills can simplify our chance of winning significantly, and even give us a chance of winning even if a mislynch happens.

Even if we had a guaranteed SK, lynching him today wouldn't be that much better for the town than lynching Eldarad. Lynching a player that you only think is the SK gives the town less of a chance of winning than lynching the guaranteed scum, because if you lynch a townie (me) then the 2 man mafia team could simply win the game tonight if the SK fires incorrectly.

Lynching anyone other than Eldarad today can result in a situation where the only chance the town has of winning relies on the SK.

[Red_Dye]

If we lynch the SK today, then we put ourselves directly into a Lylo situation against the mafia. With Eldarad being obvious scum, we would basically be pitting our chance to win on making the correct lynch in 2 days with 3-4 alive.

If we lynch Eldarad today, we put ourselves in a situation where cross kills can simplify our chance of winning significantly, and even give us a chance of winning even if a mislynch happens.

Even if we had a guaranteed SK, lynching him today wouldn't be that much better for the town than lynching Eldarad. Lynching a player that you only think is the SK gives the town less of a chance of winning than lynching the guaranteed scum, because if you lynch a townie (me) then the 2 man mafia team could simply win the game tonight if the SK fires incorrectly.

Lynching anyone other than Eldarad today can result in a situation where the only chance the town has of winning relies on the SK.

This simply isn't true, people go do the numbers for yourselves.

[Nuwen]

Nuwen, why are you suggesting Red is scum and you aren't? Evidence please.

Did anyone even read this post and this post? From my perspective, one of Korts or Red is scum. I'm going with Red, but I'm trying to be careful not to let confirmation bias taint my read too much (as was the case when I assumed Red was on Goat's wagon already, but wasn't).

Numbers don't lie, people do. That's why I've been largely ignoring behavioral cases against me in favor of interactive reads, vote placement, and setup prediction.

Why on earth would Goat anagram an SK claim? Really. Dense. Coco. He's trying to add credibility to his promise that tomorrow he'll have some sort of winning claim. He isn't claiming now because whatever it is will probably be disproved by the way night actions resolve themselves, thus he needs to see tonight's actions prior to inventing the claim in order to assure he'll be alive in a lylo situation.

[CoCo]

I say we all full claim today.

So far we have me as cop (and really, is that disputed?).
Eldarad as scum.
Main as heavily suspicious.
Red as suspicious.
Ecto is dead vig.
Bnb as dead Miller.

I think a full claim is the best way to go.

[CoCo]

Full claim, everyone. Even Goat.

[Goatrevolt]

The problem with your numbers is that they aren't correct.

The only lynch that can cause the town to lose the game tonight is by lynching a town aligned player. Blindly firing into the town in hopes of hitting a SK is simply careless play. Lynching Eldarad minimizes risks.

Your numbers don't factor in cross-killing or how important of a factor it is. I'm a firm believer in the idea that lynching a SK on day 1 is generally bad for the town, because it's an effective mislynch from hitting the mafia and removes the potential for cross-killing.

The town's chance of winning from lynching the SK today is only slightly higher than the town's chance of winning from lynching Eldarad. Without having conclusive evidence to call anyone a SK, the chance of lynching a townie by SK hunting removes that small benefit, and creates unnecessary risk.

This isn't even factoring my role into the equation.