Mini 835- The Mafia's Coming to Town! (Finished!)

[Nuwen]

One more time: relying on an investigation result in a situation where you

are very, very, very likely to be killed tonight

is not smart. We need to break open this game without assuming there will be another investigation result to confirm someone. Explicitly stating that you need one more confirmation to assure a town win also assures that you will be quite dead tomorrow morning.

Quite. Dead. Brain muscle, people.

[Nuwen]

I'm down for a mass claim. If a doctor does claim, I'm perfectly fine with lynching Eld today and Goat tomorrow. All of my setup analysis is based on the assumption that Coco is deadeded tonight.

Myself, I'm vanilla. Big shocker.

[Goatrevolt]

Full claim, everyone. Even Goat.

This is probably equivalent to just having me claim. I don't think there are any other town roles left.

Why on earth would Goat anagram an SK claim? Really. Dense. Coco. He's trying to add credibility to his promise that tomorrow he'll have some sort of winning claim.

Yeah, even if I was a SK, I wouldn't anagram it.

The rest of this isn't true. I've locked myself into a specific claim already.

[CoCo]

Yes, mass claim is the best way to go.

Oh, and thanks for claiming vanilla. Its really the only safe claim to take right now.

[Red_Dye]

The problem with your numbers is that they aren't correct.

The only lynch that can cause the town to lose the game tonight is by lynching a town aligned player. Blindly firing into the town in hopes of hitting a SK is simply careless play. Lynching Eldarad minimizes risks.

Your numbers don't factor in cross-killing or how important of a factor it is. I'm a firm believer in the idea that lynching a SK on day 1 is generally bad for the town, because it's an effective mislynch from hitting the mafia and removes the potential for cross-killing.

The town's chance of winning from lynching the SK today is only slightly higher than the town's chance of winning from lynching Eldarad. Without having conclusive evidence to call anyone a SK, the chance of lynching a townie by SK hunting removes that small benefit, and creates unnecessary risk.

This isn't even factoring my role into the equation.

Do you honestly think the mafia and sk aren't going to shoot at coco and quagmire? I'd say the chance of them overlapping a kill is far more likely then them killing each other tonight.

I'm also vanilla.

[Nuwen]

I'm well aware that a vanilla claim is rather impotent. But as I said earlier, the gambit quota in this game has been used already. If you're a town player, please don't invent a role during this mass claim. There's a very real chance that we can break it, or at least enter a lylo situation with someone confirmed.

I want Goat to claim before anyone else does.

[CoCo]

Do you honestly think the mafia and sk aren't going to shoot at coco and quagmire? I'd say the chance of them overlapping a kill is far more likely then them killing each other tonight.

I'm also vanilla.

What benefit would Goat gain by killing me, if he's the SK? He invited me to investigate him. Scum, on the other hand, are probably going to kill me tonight. Therefore, I proposed a mass claim. It shouldn't take a genius to run the math and add up the people that claim vanilla.

[Red_Dye]

Do you honestly think the mafia and sk aren't going to shoot at coco and quagmire? I'd say the chance of them overlapping a kill is far more likely then them killing each other tonight.

I'm also vanilla.

What benefit would Goat gain by killing me, if he's the SK? He invited me to investigate him. Scum, on the other hand, are probably going to kill me tonight. Therefore, I proposed a mass claim. It shouldn't take a genius to run the math and add up the people that claim vanilla.

skGoat could have just been trying to get to tomorrow. If that's the case he NEEDS to kill you tonight. also I've been assuming that everyone but goat is going to claim vanilla, if that's not the case I'll be very surprised.

[Nuwen]

It shouldn't take a genius to run the math and add up the people that claim vanilla.

Why would you say that aloud and add an a-fucking-fantastic WIFOM element to any claim henceforth (that's another good example of WIFOM, by the way. Put it on a post-it note next to the one I cited earlier).

I kind of want you to just be quiet for a little while. I'm trying hard not to be excessively rude, but being a pretty-much-confirmed town player doesn't mean you get to sabotage future reads with your carelessness. Stop it.

[CoCo]

Conversely, I am attempting to prevent everyone from claiming vanilla and fucking up a mass claim.

[Nuwen]

But... what.. why. Does not compute. Stop trying to influence claims. I want to hear each of them separately and judge players individually, not on a multi-layered situation you've intentionally or unintentionally laid open.

And I want Goat's next. Where'd he disappear off to?

[Korts]

If you had a gun and could shoot either Red or me

right this second

, who would it be and why, Korts?

When you asked this question, I would've said you, based on a gut feeling and your general confirmation bias against Goat; with your latest post making more sense I'd be in more trouble deciding.

Goat: I'm not convinced by your flavour argument--even assuming the mod would hint at the resolution of non-public actions, the one sentence in which you are mentioned is such a non-sequitur in context that there is no clear implication whether you should've been killed by Ecto, or what happened at all.

Re: your "only relevant people are mentioned" argument, note that I was mentioned too, in such a context that would not make any particular sense as any role action resolution.

Your accusation of confirmation bias is ridiculous.

Post 1170 is a good case against GoatSK. I'm actually convinced. Goat does, in recent posts, look desperate to get to LYLO.

If Goat is the SK we need to lynch him now, because if we do, we'll have 3:2 with a confirmed guilty, while if we lynch eldarad today, we'll be in a kingmaker scenario with very little chance of a town win.

Up to 1174, gone to class.

[Goatrevolt]

Fine, Coco. You get your wish.

If you're a town player, please don't invent a role during this mass claim.

I'm going to be honest, I had a post written up to do exactly this today. After some sleep, I'm opting out of it.

I'm a bulletproof. The only aspect of my claim I lied about is when I said I was a 1-shot BP. I have a full vest. This is why I want to be alive in endgame. I asked the mod, and he confirmed that the game ends in a draw in any 1-1 endgame scenario between me and either a Serial Killer or Mafia. Unless I get lynched, the town simply can't lose.

This is also why I want Eldarad dead. Having more than 1 member of a scum faction alive just increases the chances of me being lynched.

t o c a n w b d i w i c i y.

The only coffin a nail will be driven into when I claim is yours.

By that I mean that forcing me to claim that I'm not a doc just means there is no longer any disincentive for the scum to just kill Coco tonight.

My 3 reasons for not wanting to claim:

1. It ensures Coco's demise, as the scum know they can freely kill him without worrying about protection.

2. It increases the chance that the scum will get two kills at night instead of one or none, since it takes away the chance of them wasting one on me.

3. By planting seeds for a doc claim today, I tried to facilitate the scenario where the scum look to kill me instead of killing Coco.

I'm going to be out for maybe 15 minutes. I should be around for another hour or 2 afterward to answer any questions.

[Goatrevolt]

Re: your "only relevant people are mentioned" argument, note that I was mentioned too, in such a context that would not make any particular sense as any role action resolution.

I've already explained this.

There is a clear difference between what is flavor and what is fluff. It's not hard to separate which is which.

[Goatrevolt]

As for why I lied and said I only was a 1-shot bulletproof, that should be fairly obvious. I wanted to keep open the possibility for me to be shot again.

[Nuwen]

Goat, do you receive notification when you've been shot?

Usual flavor paraphrasing too, of course, if you'd be so kind.

[CoCo]

Goat, I'm glad you said exactly what I was hoping for. By making yourself appear immune, you can still be doc and add protection.

I'm rather convinced either or both Red and Nuwen are scum. Maybe Eldarad is SK?

[Nuwen]

What are you smoking. Can you mail me some?

[Nuwen]

What are you smoking. Can you mail me some?

This was in reference to thinking Goat is a doctor claiming bulletproof. Like... ffgsfgdhfgakfhsfjkhgdgwhy.

As for why I lied and said I only was a 1-shot bulletproof, that should be fairly obvious. I wanted to keep open the possibility for me to be shot again.

This is the only solely pro-town thing Goat has said in a long, long time (although it was pointed out as optimal town bulletproof play at least twice).

I need some time to consider Goat's claim and doodle out action outcomes on a notepad.

[CoCo]

Just weed. And lots of it.

Seriously though, I no longer think Goat is SK.

[Red_Dye]

Coco, your play astounds me, I can't say anything else.

[Nuwen]

I'd prefer to hear Korts prior to Quag for the next claim.

Still interested in that flavor plus shot notification, Goat.

[CoCo]

Coco, your play astounds me, I can't say anything else.

How so?

I'd prefer to hear Korts prior to Quag for the next claim.

Still interested in that flavor plus shot notification, Goat.

Second the flavor + shot notification.

[Red_Dye]

I'd prefer to hear Korts prior to Quag for the next claim.

Still interested in that flavor plus shot notification, Goat.

Given that quag is cop cleared I say we leave it up to his own discretion weather he claims at all.

[CoCo]

Given that quag is cop cleared I say we leave it up to his own discretion weather he claims at all.

I have absolutely no problem with this.