micro 858: silver 3 (ended game)

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Post Post #1275 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:21 pm

Post by u r a person 2 »

In post 1271, Ankamius wrote:this really should just say it all right here

town has the ability to be town's first mislynch and take away the only other mislynch town has.

and (U2?) is saying that the venge-shot is not anti-town.
how is it anti-town?

It takes away a lynch from town, sure, but it also takes a kill away from scum. And it replaces those two with a kill by town free of scum interference.

like ???
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Post Post #1276 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:24 pm

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In post 1272, Ankamius wrote:you can say I pocketed jungle all you like, the sudden switch on Gemini is still evidence that I claimed an innocent result on Gemini early on in the day, and the way we both played after that is pretty significant proof that we were working together mechanically at that point.

this is strong evidence that my role is genuine. I've also already shown that my role is much more elegant for town to have than the watcher.
Like, you're asking for town credit for claiming early, which is super disingenuous in a game where I'm the one who claimed early and then had to push for a mass claim

a mass claim that would have been super helpful to have earlier in the day.

All this is really evidence of is that you had JM pocketed.
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Post Post #1277 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:25 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1275, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1271, Ankamius wrote:this really should just say it all right here

town has the ability to be town's first mislynch and take away the only other mislynch town has.

and (U2?) is saying that the venge-shot is not anti-town.
how is it anti-town?

It takes away a lynch from town, sure, but it also takes a kill away from scum. And it replaces those two with a kill by town free of scum interference.

like ???
In post 1276, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1272, Ankamius wrote:you can say I pocketed jungle all you like, the sudden switch on Gemini is still evidence that I claimed an innocent result on Gemini early on in the day, and the way we both played after that is pretty significant proof that we were working together mechanically at that point.

this is strong evidence that my role is genuine. I've also already shown that my role is much more elegant for town to have than the watcher.
Like, you're asking for town credit for claiming early, which is super disingenuous in a game where I'm the one who claimed early and then had to push for a mass claim

a mass claim that would have been super helpful to have earlier in the day.

All this is really evidence of is that you had JM pocketed.
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Post Post #1278 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:34 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

Spoiler:
In post 1267, Ankamius wrote:
In post 1254, Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1150, Ankamius wrote:That essentially is it

I can see if someone can kill
I can see if someone can stop night actions and strongwilled neighborize them

first was on Gemini
Second was on Jungle

Both were negative results and Jungle joined my neighborhood
At first I thought this was a likely town role because of the strangeness of the double investigative, but it always had to be scum.

Think about the possible setups

Jailkeeper
Watcher
traffic guru with venge kill
neighborizer + kill check (supposedly)
Bus driver

Scum has two prs and one of them bus, driver, is strong, but countered by confirmed!town traffic guru and jailkeeper. The neighborizor ction is confirmable and nothing about the role makes it red checkable by any of the other roles, so there is a good balance. One role can be countered pretty heavily but is strong. The other can't be countered, but is weaker. The utility is entirely based in the ability of the scum to use the neighborize to their benefit.

Consider if ank is town

Jailkeeper + traffic guru with venge + neighborizer that can check for the ability to roleblock + a check on the ability to kill vs watcher and bus driver

How does this make sense? The bus driver would not only be countered by the traffic guru and jailkeeper but also by both investigative actions from ank's slot, and the scum!watcher would be checkable by ank's slot, and the jail keeper's slot. The watcher ability, if it got a result, would have a 1/3 chance of pushing scum to lynch the venge slot (bad for scum), while a false positive from town!ank would also result in the free venge for town. It's simply too much town power + the ability for prs to confirm one another

This game is clearly more balanced with town watcher rather than town whatever ank is claiming.
incorrect.

1. Town only has two mislynches by default and if the vengeful is killed, most of the time it will EAT one of them. This can easily put town into MyLo on DAY TWO, which is absolutely insane for most setups. Town needs a backup plan for this to not singlehandedly break the game in favor for scum,
ESPECIALLY WITH SCUM BEING ABLE TO BUS DRIVE THEIR NIGHT ACTION TARGET TO AVOID DOCTORS AND WATCHERS
, which ensures that the scumteam can kill the strongest town N1.
2. The amount of power has with my role being town and yours being scum makes a lot of sense.

2a. scum can busdrive the jailkeep away from their NK target (which I would expect 99% of the time most scumteams would be using with a bus drive on N1). This puts doubt on the JK claim and/or the Doctor claim.
2b. the vengeful's night action is not likely to have any impact on the game since just knowing that somebody had a redirect used on them is not exactly very useful to the game unless another PR (namely only Gemini since I would know I was redirected) also targeted the same target. This is... not exactly very likely!
2c. my role has two parts, one of which is gated by a false guilty target (the vengeful), and the other of which can ONLY get a guilty on town (gemini). the neighborizer being strong-willed means that my claims of being redirected are inherently suspicious, especially if my result was redirected off the target I neighborized.
2d. Effectively,
the game is based around town's power roles being able to paint a pretty good picture of what's going on with enough context, but the individual parts are not confirmable.


Town having a Jailkeeper+OneShotDoctor and a double investigative is really strong for a 9p game,
that's why town was also given an anti-town role in the vengeful and scum were given the watcher in order to have very good odds of detecting at least one PR on night one.
The town was ALSO purposely designed in a way that a massclaim wouldn't singlehandedly break the game since the bus driver screws with results, the watcher helps scum build a narrative to help counter it, the vengeful redirection detector is also sketchy enough to be mislynchable in that scenario, and town is
specifically
designed in a way that makes it very hard to consolidate information accurately since none of it is technically confirmable as town.

So yes, town makes a lot more sense with my role as town over yours.

It fits the design of the game.
It's
REQUIRED
to counter the massive amounts of swing that the vengeful adds to the game if it's lynched D1 and vengekills town.
It's built into the setup that even if something goes wrong, my role is just as likely to even the odds with a really unlucky check as it is to end the game with a lucky check.

Watcher does
NOT
have these same interactions.
Watcher being town here means that the scumteam have the ability to detect two of the three PRs, AND can kill whoever the fuck they want via the bus driver, AND an extra possibility of getting full role info that town would not have via the neighborhood. And town in return gets the JK+Doc, the anti-town vengeful role, and... the ability to catch the bus driver! And every other PR in the game! The ability to be able to out PRs to the town or to the scum neighborizer!

That's absolutely ridiculous and not at all congruent with the rest of the town PRs like my role is.


It definitely is a lot of words. It happens to be completely wrong, but I'm not skilled enough in setup spec to tell you all the ways in which it is wrong. But it seems pretty ludicrous to me to suggest that the venge is anti town. If it were really anti town, towns wouldn't opt to take the shot. It doesn't take into account the benefit of being the lynch to seeing the wagons with clear eyes. I bet you'd find that venge shots have a > rand success rate, and that this game was not an anomaly.

And Ank talks about how much power is required to offset the venge, but from town!ank's point of view we lynched a pr, and had the venge shoot scum, and the game was still auto by D2. If a VT had been venged, and the same night actions made, it wouldn't even have been auto, it would have just been solved. That's crazy. That's best case scenario for scum, and they're walking into D2 with a game solved against them. That's not realistic.
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Post Post #1279 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:56 pm

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okay it wouldn't be solved but it would still be auto, lol

Like, scum in this setup needs the pr interactions to wifom the game, and it needs ank's kill detector to avoid lynching the venge
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Post Post #1280 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:57 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1279, u r a person 2 wrote:okay it wouldn't be solved but it would still be auto, lol

Like, scum in this setup needs the pr interactions to wifom the game, and it needs ank's kill detector to avoid lynching the venge
sorry sorry
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Post Post #1281 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:58 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I think you're forgetting that the game was autosolved because jungle and I were DECEIVING everybody else

the game was not actually solved once I outed my role
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Post Post #1282 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:02 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1281, Ankamius wrote:I think you're forgetting that the game was autosolved because jungle and I were DECEIVING everybody else

the game was not actually solved once I outed my role
in the world where our alignments are reversed and you were town, fypov

-you're town
Gem is town
Starwing is town
lynch 1 in {jm, vedith, me}
you check one and gem checks one
one of you survives and either red checks or clears

If the venge had hit a vt (say, vedith)
Then it's 2 scums in {RC, me, JM} and if you get past mylo, it's auto

sorry i called it auto before but it's hard keeping track of these hypotheticals

it's still way town-sided without your ability to identify venge.
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Post Post #1283 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:04 pm

Post by Ankamius »

well yeah that's what I was trying to do?

I wanted to sort all three slots by pushing you to kill the fake cop lol
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Post Post #1284 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:10 pm

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In post 1283, Ankamius wrote:well yeah that's what I was trying to do?

I wanted to sort all three slots by pushing you to kill the fake cop lol
lol. I think my point - that the venge is pro-town and that scum needs your ability to counter that - is clear

I don't have the energy to do it tonight, but I tomorrow I want to go through my own iso and spoon feed why I'm town. It's the kind of thing some other town should have done on my behalf before now, but in their absence =/
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Post Post #1285 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:10 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1284, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1283, Ankamius wrote:well yeah that's what I was trying to do?

I wanted to sort all three slots by pushing you to kill the fake cop lol
lol. I think my point - that the venge is pro-town and that scum needs your ability to counter that - is clear

I don't have the energy to do it tonight, but I tomorrow I want to go through my own iso and spoon feed why I'm town. It's the kind of thing some other town should have done on my behalf before now, but in their absence =/
damnit
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Post Post #1286 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:11 pm

Post by Ankamius »

and yet

town also needs my role in the situation where the vengekill eats both of town's mislynches by itself?
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Post Post #1287 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:15 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1286, Ankamius wrote:and yet

town also needs my role in the situation where the vengekill eats both of town's mislynches by itself?
not really. in that instance, which I detailed just a couple posts ago, your role + gem's would still give town a 2/3 chance at victory with random voting of the lynch pool

It's relatively balanced in reality because my role is not nearly as powerful an investigative and town should be at a disadvantage after a mislynch and a misvenge
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Post Post #1288 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:15 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1282, Draco Lucky wrote:If the venge had hit a vt (say, vedith)
Then it's 2 scums in {RC, me, JM} and if you get past mylo, it's auto
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Post Post #1289 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:59 pm

Post by Ankamius »

...and yet scum have a bus driver to fuck with any solves
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Post Post #1290 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:01 pm

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town should be at a disadvantage after a mislynch on pr + mis venge. That's the point. That's why your role only makes sense as scum
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Post Post #1291 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:02 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1290, u r a person 2 wrote:town should be at a disadvantage after a mislynch on pr + mis venge. That's the point. That's why your role only makes sense as scum
fuck me with a pineapple
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Post Post #1292 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:03 pm

Post by Ankamius »

weren't you arguing for the vengeful not being very anti-town despite the fact that it will cause that scenario 75% of the time that it gets lynched N1 and the scenario we are now in 25% of the time?
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Post Post #1293 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:04 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I'll go into more detail on this tomorrow when I'm less tired
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Post Post #1294 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:07 pm

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1292, Ankamius wrote:weren't you arguing for the vengeful not being very anti-town despite the fact that it will cause that scenario 75% of the time that it gets lynched N1 and the scenario we are now in 25% of the time?
It is pro town.

By your logic, lynching is anti-town lolol

I think you've gotten yourself tied into a knot
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Post Post #1295 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:08 pm

Post by Ankamius »

what

town having a role that literally deletes a mislynch is antitown
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Post Post #1296 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:09 pm

Post by Ankamius »

scum have a bus driver, therefore they can delete whoever the fuck they want n1 with a much higher than normal odds

combine that with a vengeful that puts the game into mylo on day 2

what part of that is NOT anti-town
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Post Post #1297 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:10 pm

Post by Ankamius »

and you're sitting here telling me that a WATCHER is supposed to balance that? a role that has a check for the kill and potentially SIX ACTIONS?
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Post Post #1298 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:12 pm

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