Mini 1545: Teen Wolf Season 1 Mafia (GAME OVER!!!)

[RachMarie]

Well... shit


So Iec, Jiffy what do you want to do? Go ahead and NL now or wait for a replacement to let us know what Esp's tracking results were?

[Iecerint]

Espe's results could potentially establish a 1/1.

There's already basically a 1/1 between me and Espe, anyway, but there's a very outside chance that Majiffy could be scum, and Espe's could nullify that chance (or have a positive on Majiffy, in the outside chance that Majiffy is scum).

(Rach obviously can't be scum now that 2 scum have flipped unless she just played poorly.)

[RachMarie]

LOL I may not be a super Mafia player, however as scum I definitely would have hit the tracker claim or Jiffy over last night's kill

If Esp was a scum tracker after all, he would have gone for Jiffy I am sure, and if Jiffy were scum, he would have hit that PR for sure.

I am still totally flummoxed by that move? It makes no sense at all.

[RachMarie]

I guess that was why I was hoping for tracker results sigh.

[Iecerint]

After Titus's death (confirming 3 scum), it's impossible for either you (Rach) or Mhork to have been scum because you could have won the game 2 days ago by hammering Majiffy. (Well, it's still possible if you didn't notice it or weren't online, but pretty remote.)

Majiffy can only be scum if all of two days ago was a gambit and both orc and Majiffy were scum (unlikely but not math-impossible like the above two cases).

Espe and I are the last two, but from my POV there's a chance that he could choose to make it Espe/Majiffy if he's scum or to have actually tracked Majiffy if Majiffy is scum, hence the preference for waiting.

[RachMarie]

This game ....

is doing my head in.

I know there is for sure a 3rd scum out there or the game would have been over when we lynched Titus.

TBH though at this point I am really not sure who it is.

It does feel weird though that peeps might think I am town after all that I am so used to being lynch bait

[RachMarie]

Since we are twiddling our thumbs for a bit waiting to see who is Esp's replacement and get tracker results, I guess after I see the doc on April 1st, I will reread and ISO and VCA shit.

Right now with the sinus stuff and now I am running a fever too. March in the Central Valley of California sucks with the pollen and spraying of chemicals n stuff.

At least next spring we will be in our new home in TN and out of the valley.

[BROseidon]

Quilford replaced Espeonage.

[Majiffy]

Prod dodge / Waiting for

Gadot

Quilford

[Majiffy]

... Godot*(?)

Can't remember.

[Quilford]

Godot indeed.

I have bad news, and good news.

[Iecerint]

Speak again bright angel.

[Quilford]

The bad news is that Espeonage took no action last night.

The good news is that this is entirely consistent with his absence from the forum since March 26 my time. (Check it for yourself: Espeonage's profile, the flip.) The entirety of the Night phase, even the flip, has taken place since then.

And someone died.

[Iecerint]

Well, that makes your slot pretty town. Kind of like Majiffy's. So:

Vote: No Lynch

[Quilford]

What's the hurry?

Let me read up and see if you guys have missed any scumslips.

[Quilford]

I'd really like to know your reads, Iecerint.

[Iecerint]

Sure.

Basically, Rach is town unless she forgot to hammer, Majiffy is town unless scum claimed a guilty on scum, and you are town unless Espe posted in the QT without visiting the site or something.

So I want to reduce the complexity by 1 before deciding.

[Iecerint]

I'd really like to know your reads, Iecerint.

Differentiating between them beyond the summary in the previous post probably defeats the point of NL.

There is someone who I think is more likely between you three.

[Quilford]

I think it should be noted that we know

for certain

that if Majiffy is not-Mafia, RachMarie is also not-Mafia (because she had a clear shot at hammering him). But we also know

for certain

that if Majiffy is Mafia, RachMarie is not-Mafia (because there's only one Mafioso left).

Because Majiffy is either Mafia or not-Mafia,

RachMarie is literally confirmed town to everyone

unless you think she missed the hammer, she's another third party, Majiffy changed alignments, or there's some hole in my logic.

Apart from the logic-hole I think those are all strikingly unlikely.

[Iecerint]

Yes, Rach is confirmed town unless she forgot to hammer (cf., 1316).

[Quilford]

Yes, Rach is confirmed town unless she forgot to hammer (cf., 1316).

I know. Just making it absolutely clear to myself.

you are town unless Espe posted in the QT without visiting the site or something.

I'd also like to gently suggest that I am also confirmed town to everyone given the information in my second post and the fact that Espe posting in the QT without visiting the site is vanishingly unlikely given he flaked sitewide and hasn't come back. Also that would be not only super elaborate but also a really terrible thing to do considering he was in other games at the time.

[Quilford]

I might as well post all my track results.

N1 no action
N2 SMP went nowhere
N3 Iecerint went nowhere
N4 Iecerint went nowhere
N5 no action

[Iecerint]

I would prefer to NL first. Even if the chance of you or Rach being scum is very low, it is still higher than 0%.

I would be more OK with skipping it if I didn't also have good reasons to think Majiffy was town.

[Iecerint]

I can understand it being awkward for you to come in, be conftown, and go to night, but.

[Quilford]

I would be more OK with skipping [NL] if I didn't also have good reasons to think Majiffy was town.

What are they?